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[StarDust Bum]

NBA odds: Sixers, Bucks in back-to-back

The Sixers are 8-3-1 ATS the last 12 meetings against the Bucks.
The National Basketball Association’s regular season is quickly coming to a close, as there are just two weeks remaining until the playoffs begin.
There is an interesting matchup on Saturday’s schedule pitting the Philadelphia 76ers against the Milwaukee Bucks. Tip-off is scheduled for 5:30 p.m. (PT) from Milwaukee’s Bradley Center.

Both teams enter this contest playing on back-to-back nights after the Sixers hosted New Jersey Friday, and the Bucks traveled to Indiana.

Philadelphia, on the cusp of clinching a playoff spot, currently resides in sixth place in the Eastern Conference. Milwaukee presently finds itself in 10th place, three games behind the eighth place Pacers.

The Sixers had recorded back-to-back victories both SU and ATS heading into Friday’s contest. Philadelphia dumped Houston Wednesday as a three-point home ‘chalk,’ 108-97, while the combined 205 points failed to eclipse the 209 ½-point closing total. The ‘under’ has cashed in the Sixers’ previous two outings.

Philadelphia took control of the contest by outscoring the Rockets in the fourth quarter, 24-15. The Sixers finished the contest with advantages in rebounding (41-38) and assists (30-25), while shooting a solid 54 percent (46-of-85) from the field and 39 percent (5-of-13) from behind the arc.

Point guard Jrue Holiday paced the offense with 24 points and 12 assists, while forward Thaddeus Young had 22 and nine rebounds. Center Spencer Hawes accounted for 12 and seven, while small forward Andre Iguodala provided nine points and 10 assists.

Milwaukee was mired in a two-game SU losing streak before upending Toronto on Wednesday as a 4 ½-point road favorite, 104-98. The combined 202 points toppled the 190 ½-point closing total, helping the ‘over’ improve to 3-1 the previous four outings.

The game was tied entering the fourth quarter until the Bucks outscored the Raptors, 28-22. Milwaukee enjoyed advantages in rebounding (36-34) and assists (36-22), while shooting 49 percent (38-of-77) from the field and 47 percent (9-of-19) from 3-point land.

Point guard Brandon Jennings stepped up with 25 points and seven assists, while forward Drew Gooden had 22 and 11 rebounds. Center Andrew Bogut provided 17 and 10 in the victory, while forward Carlos Delfino had 14 points and four steals.

The home team has won all three games in the season series. Philadelphia prevailed Nov. 19 as a 4 ½-point home underdog, 90-79, and Jan. 14 as a 4 ½-point home ‘chalk,’ 95-94. Milwaukee triumphed March 12 as a two-point home favorite, 102-74.

The ‘under’ is 6-1 the previous seven encounters. The Sixers are 8-3-1 ATS the last 12 meetings in this series. Philadelphia has seen the ‘over’ go 12-5 its past 17 road endeavors. Milwaukee is 6-2 ATS its last eight home games, while the ‘under’ is 16-6 the previous 22 home endeavors.

The Don Best Sports injury report lists Philadelphia forward Elton Brand (flu) as ‘probable’ versus the Nets. Milwaukee center Andrew Bogut (illness) is ‘questionable’ against the Sixers, while forward Larry Sanders (back) is ‘probable.’ Forward Jon Brockman (shoulder) and forward Ersan Ilvasoya (concussion) are ‘doubtful.’

The Sixers conclude a brief two-game road trip with Tuesday’s tilt at Boston. The Bucks follow this matchup with a three-game road trip versus Orlando, Miami and Detroit.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB odds: Reds host Brewers in middle game

The Cincinnati Reds are 17-7 in their last 24 home outings.
The Milwaukee Brewers will try and put Thursday’s season-opening loss behind them as they play the second baseball betting game of a three-game set in Cincinnati on Saturday night.
The Brewers blew a 6-3 lead in the ninth inning and lost their season opener, 7-6, as Ramon Hernandez hit a two-out, three run home run to win it for the Reds. It was not the way the Brewers wanted to start the season, but it was nothing new for a Reds team that won their first six games last year in walk-off fashion. Milwaukee has not had much success at Cincinnati, losing nine of the last 10 games.

Check out the current line for this game at *** Global.com.

Shaun Marcum vs. Travis Wood

The pitching matchup for Saturday has Milwaukee going with Shaun Marcum, who the Brewers acquired in the off-season from Toronto. They were counting on a one-two rotation of Zack Greinke and Marcum to lead them this MLB betting season, but Greinke is on the DL and Marcum was not totally healthy in the spring.

Marcum skipped his next-to-last spring start with shoulder stiffness, but is said to be ready for Saturday’s start.

The Reds have so many injuries in their starting rotation that Travis Wood is now up to the No. 2 position in the rotation. He probably would have been the fifth starter without all of the injury issues.

Wood had a good rookie season last year, registering a 3.51 ERA in his 17 starts. He also pitched well against the Brewers, as he threw just over 11 innings with a record of 1-0 and an ERA of 3.97.

The betting stats for Saturday’s game appear below.

The Brewers are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter. The Brewers are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. the National League Central. The Brewers are 1-4 in their last 5 Saturday games. The Reds are 4-1 in their last 5 Saturday games.

The Reds are 17-7 in their last 24 home games. The Reds are 43-21 in their last 64 vs. the National League Central. The Reds are 2-6 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter. The Reds are 0-5 in Wood’s last 5 starts.

The ‘under’ is 7-3-1 in the Brewers last 11 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The ‘under’ is 15-7-1 in the Reds last 23 home games. The ‘under’ is 2-0-2 in Wood’s last 4 starts overall.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB Odds: Cubs, Pirates continue series

The ’under’ is 6-2 in the last eight series meetings at Chicago.
The Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates play the middle match of their three-game series Saturday at Wrigley Field. The first pitch for these NL Central Division rivals is scheduled for 10:05 a.m. (PT)
The Cubs haven’t won the World Series since 1908 and oddsmakers at Bookmaker.com aren’t enthused about their prospects. They’re plus 4,000 to break their century-long jinx, with Pittsburgh far worse at plus 15,000.

Chicago (plus 350) is given a decent chance to win the mediocre NL Central, trailing Cincinnati (plus 185), St. Louis (plus 200) and Milwaukee (plus 205). Houston (plus 2000) and Pittsburgh (plus 3500) are long shots.

The Cubs had a dismal 2010 campaign at 75-87, including just 35-46 at home. Manager Mike Quade took over for Lou Piniella during last summer and finished with a 24-13 record. Despite that, Quade is already on the hot seat with fans unhappy that former second baseman Ryne Sandberg was passed over for the permanent job this offseason.

Quade should feel pretty good with Dempster, Carlos Zambrano, Matt Garza and Randy Wells comprising the top-4 in the rotation. The bullpen should also be decent if Kerry Wood can help closer Carlos Marmol.

The offense is the big question after finishing 10th in the NL in runs scored last year (685) and counting on first baseman Carlos Pena to replace Derrek Lee.

Zambrano finished with a decent 11-6 record last year (3.33 ERA), but that tells just part of the story. He was awful in his first four starts (7.45 ERA) before being shifted to the bullpen and later getting suspended.

The 29-year-old righty did finish very strong in the second half, going 8-0 with a 1.58 ERA in 14 appearances (11 starts). He needs to show his newfound maturity immediately, but he can’t be too happy seeing his string of six-straight Opening Day starts end.

Zambrano finished last year with a 2.10 ERA at home, compared to 4.14 away. He has struggled in day games (10-9, 5.15 ERA) over the last three years compared to going 24-10 with a 2.94 ERA at night.

Zambrano made one start against the Pirates last year, throwing 5 1/3 scoreless innings in a 14-2 home win last August. He’s 12-8 with a 4.02 ERA lifetime against them.

The ‘over’ is 7-1 in Zambrano’s last eight starts against Pittsburgh.

The Pirates (57-105) finished with the worst record in baseball last year, four games behind the Seattle Mariners.

Despite the almost two decades of futility, there are some bright spots. Young hitters Andrew McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez, Neil Walker and Jose Tabata should only get better. There’s nowhere to go but up after finishing last in runs scored (587).

Saturday’s starter will be Paul Maholm. The 28-year-old lefty has been a durable pitcher the last five years, averaging over 30 starts. Unfortunately, his career ERA is just 4.48, including going 9-15 with a 5.10 ERA last season.

Maholm doesn’t strikeout a lot of guys (4.85 rate last year), and right-handed hitters batted .316 off him. Pittsburgh lost his last six road starts and he finished 2-6 with a 4.81 ERA away from home.

Maholm pitched well in three of his four starts against Chicago (3-1, 5.01 ERA). He got bombed in during his last outing at Wrigley on Aug. 30 against Zambrano, allowing eight earned runs over 3 1/3 innings. He pitched very well in his other two starts in Chicago (2-0, 1.93 ERA).

Pittsburgh went 10-5 against Chicago last year, 5-4 on the road. That latter record is surprising as the Pirates only won 17 away games all year (17-64 mark).

The ‘under’ is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Chicago.

Pittsburgh starting catcher Chris Snyder is on the DL with a back injury, so Ryan Doumit will get the call behind the plate.

The weather should be clear and around 50 degrees. This series concludes Sunday with the newly acquired Garza against Ross Ohlendorf.

[StarDust Bum]

NHL future bets becoming clear

The Vancouver Canucks are now favored to capture the Stanley Cup.
After weeks of wondering just how close the playoff race was really going to be this season, NHL betting fans can now safely identify the 16 teams that are going to be in the playoffs.
Sure, the Carolina Hurricanes, Dallas Stars, and Calgary Flames could still slip into the picture, but in all likelihood, they'll all be left home.

So what about the 16 teams that are in? It's fairly clear that the Vancouver Canucks, winners of the President's Trophy, are going to be in it for the long haul. Yet this is a franchise that just always seems to choke things away.

Vancouver is actually a better road team this year than a home team. We're just not so sure that it should be the favorite on the 5 Dimes NHL odds board at plus 330.

So, which team is going to beat Vancouver in the Western Conference? Though there are a lot of good teams, there don't seem to be many complete ones.

Could the Detroit Red Wings do it? We don't want anything to do with a team with goaltending so inconsistent that it allows 10 goals to the St. Louis Blues at home with a division title potentially on the line. We'll pass at plus 850.

We're really not that sure about the San Jose Sharks either at plus 1,175, as they have this horrible postseason history.

Last year, it took some outside-the-box thinking to figure out who was going to be in the Stanley Cup Finals out of the Eastern Conference. It might need some more creative thinking to get the winners of the West this year.

The Chicago Blackhawks, assuming that they get in, have a great price at plus 2,000. Corey Crawford is every bit as good as Antti Niemi was last year, and there are a ton of pieces to last year's championship puzzle that are eager to prove that they are worthwhile.

The more interesting choice might be the Nashville Predators at 44/1. The Preds have some great goaltending with Pekka Rinne, and this is a team that is really built to win playoff-type hockey games. If Mike Fisher can ever really come to the table and play a few solid offensive games, Nashville could go far.

The trendy selections in the Eastern Conference are the Philadelphia Flyers at plus 675 and the Washington Capitals at plus 685. The Caps are probably the hottest team in the East right now, but we just aren't so sure that Semyon Varlamov and Michal Neuvirth are going to be able to carry this team in these tight 2-1 types of postseason tussles.

The Boston Bruins will most likely be the No. 3 seed in the playoff, and they have a great price tag on their heads at plus 1,150 as well. Tim Thomas is absolutely the best goalkeeper in these playoffs. And, as we all know, it only takes a hot goalie to bring a team all the way to the Cup.

Speaking of good goalies, don't forget about the Pittsburgh Penguins (plus 1,200) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (plus 2,300). These two teams are destined to be fighting each other in the first round of the playoffs this year, and they both have goaltending that can catch some fire. Assuming that Sidney Crosby gets back on the ice in time for the postseason, both have stars that can really take over a series.

[StarDust Bum]

Burnett tries to pitch Yankees to 2-0 start

DETROIT TIGERS (0-1)

at NEW YORK YANKEES (1-0)


First pitch: Saturday, 4:10 p.m. EDT
Line: TBD

The Tigers are looking to get even with the Yankees on Saturday afternoon, and A.J. Burnett might be just the pitcher they want to see.

Burnett, who has come under fire for his inconsistent-bordering-on-disastrous, two-year stint in pinstripes, has faced the Tigers six times in his career. He’s posted a 7.34 ERA in those starts while giving up at least three runs each time. Detroit’s newest addition, catcher Victor Martinez, has a great track record against Burnett, going for six hits (including two doubles and a homer), six walks and a hit by pitch in 29 career plate appearances versus the righty.

But there are positives. Burnett was excellent in spring training. In 13 innings, he posted a 2.77 ERA and struck out 11 while walking none. He’s also been much better in New Yankee Stadium during his Yankees stint (3.98 ERA at home, 5.18 road ERA).

And, of course, Detroit isn’t exactly trotting out an ace. Injury-prone veteran Brad Penny is making his Tigers debut on Saturday. Penny was solid in limited action for the Cardinals last season, posting a 3.23 ERA over nine starts before a back injury knocked him out for the season. The red flag with Penny is his performance against American League lineups. Over his career, including a disastrous stint with Boston in 2009, he has a 3.85 ERA against the National League but a 5.59 ERA against the A.L., including a 5.68 ERA against AL East opponents. Penny’s career ERA in day games is 5.21 (as opposed to 3.76 at night).

None of the Yankees regulars have had a lot of chances to face Penny, but they’ve been quite successful when they have: Derek Jeter (5-for-9), Alex Rodriguez (3-for-7) and Curtis Granderson (3-for-6).

The Yankees got to the Detroit bullpen for three runs in two innings on Opening Day, and there’s a good chance they’ll knock out Penny early and tee off on that bullpen again. The Tigers have played eight games at the New Yankee Stadium and lost seven of them. Saturday will be no different. My pick is the Yankees again.

[StarDust Bum]

Reds look to build on dramatic Opening Day win


MILWAUKEE BREWERS (0-1)

at CINCINNATI REDS (1-0)


First pitch: Saturday, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Line: TBD

After a ninth inning come-from-behind victory over Milwaukee in its opener on Thursday, Cincinnati looks to make it two in a row on Saturday night.

The Reds trailed 6-3 heading into the bottom of the ninth, but rallied for four runs, three of which came on a Ramon Hernandez two-out, three-run, walk-off homer. Hernandez finished with four hits in five at-bats, while Drew Stubbs was 2-for-5, including a homer, and two runs scored. Cincinnati will look to Travis Wood to keep the good times rolling on Saturday. Wood started 17 games in 2010 and finished with a record of 5-4 and a 3.51 ERA, pitching 102.2 innings with 86 strikeouts and a 1.08 WHIP. The left-hander will be looking for his first win at Great American Ball Park, as he was 0-2 in four home starts with a 4.03 ERA last season. Wood started twice against Milwaukee in 2010 and picked up one victory. In those two games, he allowed five earned runs in 11.1 IP (3.97 ERA) with 12 strikeouts.

The Brewers will counter with right-hander Shaun Marcum, who was acquired from Toronto in the offseason. Marcum was 13-8 last season for the Blue Jays with a 3.64 ERA in 31 starts. He pitched 195.1 innings and compiled 165 strikeouts with a 1.15 WHIP and one complete game. The righty owned a 7-5 road record in 17 starts with a 4.13 ERA, but has never pitched against Cincinnati. Marcum dealt with some shoulder tightness late in spring training, but he started on March 28 versus San Diego and gave up three runs in four innings in his last spring start.

John Axford, who had 24 saves and a 2.48 ERA in 2010, got the loss on Thursday after allowing four earned runs in 2/3 IP and blowing his first save opportunity of the season.

Cincinnati was 11-3 against Milwaukee last season, including a 7-1 mark at Great American Ball Park, but I expect Marcum and Milwaukee to even the series on Saturday night.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB

Saturday, April 2

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Chi. White Sox - 1:05 PM ET Chi. White Sox -125 500
Cleveland - Over 8.5 500

Atlanta - 1:05 PM ET Washington +144 500
Washington - Under 8 500

Pittsburgh - 1:05 PM ET Pittsburgh +174 500
Chi. Cubs -

Minnesota - 1:07 PM ET Minnesota -109 500
Toronto - Over 8.5 500

LA Angels - 1:10 PM ET Kansas City +128 500
Kansas City - Over 8.5 500

Detroit - 4:10 PM ET NY Yankees -157 500
NY Yankees - Over 9.5 500

San Diego - 4:10 PM ET St. Louis -147 500
St. Louis - Over 8 500

San Francisco - 4:10 PM ET LA Dodgers -101 500
LA Dodgers - Under 7 500

Houston - 7:05 PM ET Houston +224 500
Philadelphia - Over 7 500

Baltimore - 7:10 PM ET Baltimore +134 500
Tampa Bay -

NY Mets - 7:10 PM ET Florida -139 500
Florida - Under 8 500

Milwaukee - 7:10 PM ET Cincinnati -114 500
Cincinnati - Over 8.5 500

Boston - 8:05 PM ET Texas -114 500
Texas - Over 9.5 500

Arizona - 8:10 PM ET Arizona +147 500
Colorado - Over 8.5 500

Seattle - 9:05 PM ET Seattle +163 500
Oakland - Under 7 500


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NHL

Saturday, April 2

Score Status Pick Amount

Atlanta - 1:00 PM ET Atlanta +201 500
Boston - Over 5.5 500

Tampa Bay - 2:00 PM ET Tampa Bay -129 500
Minnesota - Over 5.5 500

Detroit - 3:00 PM ET Nashville -113 500
Nashville - Over 5.5 500

Dallas - 4:00 PM ET Los Angeles -151 500
Los Angeles - Under 5 500

Toronto - 7:00 PM ET Ottawa +105 500
Ottawa - Over 5.5 500

Montreal - 7:00 PM ET Montreal +113 500
New Jersey - Over 5 500

Carolina - 7:00 PM ET NY Islanders +126 500
NY Islanders - Over 5.5 500

Pittsburgh - 7:00 PM ET Pittsburgh -147 500
Florida - Over 5 500

Anaheim - 10:30 PM ET Anaheim +146 500 ( NHL DOG OF THE YEAR )
San Jose - Over 5.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday, April 2

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Toronto - 8:00 PM ET Chicago -14.5 500
Chicago - Under 198 500

Minnesota - 8:00 PM ET Memphis -13.5 500
Memphis - Over 204 500

Philadelphia - 8:30 PM ET Philadelphia -2 500
Milwaukee - Under 185 500

Dallas - 10:30 PM ET Golden State +5.5 500 ( NBA PUNK'UM GOY )
Golden State - Under 212 500

Oklahoma City - 10:30 PM ET Oklahoma City -4.5 500
L.A. Clippers - Under 205.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Dallas continues road trip at Golden State


DALLAS MAVERICKS (53-21)

at GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (32-44)


Tip-off: Saturday, 10:30 p.m. EDT
Line: TBD

The Mavs try to regroup from Thursday’s blowout loss when they travel to Golden State for game five of their six-game road trip.

The road trip started off great, as Dallas beat Utah by 17, Phoenix by eight and the Clippers by six. But the Mavs were out-shot 45% to 36% and out-rebounded 66-52 by the Lakers in a 110-82 beat-down on Thursday. Jason Terry and Brendan Haywood were both ejected after a shoving match early in the fourth quarter, as the Lakers outscored the Mavs 56 to 31 in the second half. The loss snapped a five-game win streak for Dallas, who was led by Dirk Nowitzki’s 27 points and 13 rebounds. Nowitzki should build upon his big night by facing the Warriors, considering he is averaging 26.3 PPG on 52.7% FG against them this season. Despite the loss, the Mavs still have the NBA’s best road record at 27-11 (71%) and are a stellar 24-14 ATS (63%).

Golden State is wrapping up a long season, as it closed out March going 2-8 (SU and ATS). Two of those losses were to the Mavericks, a tightly-contested 112-106 home defeat on March 16 followed by a 101-73 blowout loss four days later in Dallas. The Warriors are coming off a 110-91 loss at Memphis on Wednesday when they were outscored 31-19 in both the third and fourth quarters. Stephen Curry was a dreadful 2-of-14 from the field for six points, but he did have nine assists and six rebounds. Curry’s luck doesn’t figure to change on Saturday as he has only made 42.1% FG against Dallas this season Golden State leading scorer Monta Ellis (24.1 PPG) has also struggled with his shot against the Mavs this season with a 43.6% FG clip.

Dallas is 9-2 SU (7-4 ATS) in the past 11 meetings with Golden State including six straight SU victories. Considering the Warriors are 4-8 ATS (33%) as a home underdog this season, my pick is Dallas to win and cover the spread with a huge bounce-back effort from Thursday’s embarrassing loss.

This highly-rated FoxSheets trend also backs the Mavericks:

Play On - Road favorites (DALLAS) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more. (52-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.3%, +32.2 units. Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Bucks try to keep slim playoff hopes alive hosting Philly


PHILADELPHIA 76ers (39-36)

at MILWAUKEE BUCKS (32-44)


Tip-off: Saturday, 10:30 p.m. EDT
Line: TBD

The 76ers play their third game in four days when they visit Milwaukee on Saturday. The Bucks hope this game plays out exactly like when they hosted Philly on March 12, a 102-74 rout.

In that demoralizing defeat, the 76ers shot 39.7% FG, while allowing the Bucks to shoot 52.6% FG and 52.9% (9-for-17) three-pointers. Milwaukee also won the rebounding battle 51-40 and forced 20 Philly turnovers. The Sixers were wildly inconsistent throughout the March, but closed out the month with a 97-85 win at Chicago and a 108-97 victory over Houston. Jrue Holiday had 24 points and 12 assists against the Rockets. Holiday also had a big game in Friday’s 115-90 win over New Jersey, scoring 17 points with six rebounds and seven assists. Entering Saturday, the 76ers remain in sixth place in the East, 2½ games ahead of New York.

Milwaukee still has playoff hopes, despite its 30-45 SU record. The Bucks are in 10th place, four games behind the Pacers for the eighth seed after losing a heart-breaking 89-88 decision at Indiana on Friday. Milwaukee is also two games behind ninth-place Charlotte after shooting just 42.5% FG in Friday’s loss. Brandon Jennings had 20 points and seven rebounds and has averaged 24.2 PPG in his past five games. Drew Gooden, who poured in 22 points and 11 rebounds in his second game back from injury on Wednesday, struggled to a 3-for-11 night on Friday, including missing a potential game-winning shot at the buzzer.

The 76ers are 9-3 SU (8-4 ATS) in the past 12 meetings with Milwaukee. Other trends in Philly’s favor include a 23-15 ATS (61%) road record and 28-18 ATS (61%) mark against East teams. The Bucks are also a great bet in conference play (28-17, 62%), but are just 18-19 ATS (49%) at home. Although this game means more to Milwaukee, who really can’t lose any more games, the recent surge by Philadelphia makes them the ATS choice for Saturday’s meeting.