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Odds to win National League Central: Brewers the team to beat
The Central Division has had three different champions in the past three years, which doesn’t bode well for the Cincinnati Reds – the defending NL Central champs.
The St. Louis Cardinals chances took a hit before the first pitch of an exhibition game was thrown. The Milwaukee Brewers addressed their most important need, starting pitching, during the offseason and they are convinced they’ll make a serious run in the Central Division.
The Chicago Cubs believe they are a dark horse, yet they’re having a difficult time finding believers outside of those drinking the blue and red Kool-aid. Houston has the weakest infield in the National League, which takes the Astros out of contention. For those who dislike change, the Pittsburgh Pirates make the world a safer place.
Chicago Cubs
Last season record: 75-87
Projected season win total: O/U 82.5
Odds to win division: +400
Biggest impact loss: OF Xavier Nady
Biggest impact addition: 1B Carlos Pena, RHP Matt Garza
Cubs Outlook: As has been the case since 1909, “Wait till next year” has arrived on the North Side of Chicago. Long-time baseball man Mike Quade convinced Cubs management he’s the right individual to make Chicago a division contender in 2011, after a 24-13 close in a trial run last year. Quade’s approach worked for a team not facing pressure, but the real test begins starting with a new right side of the infield and an aging lineup that used to bludgeon opponents five years ago.
First baseman Carlos Pena has to make more contact after batting .196 and which Aramis Ramirez will show up this season - the one who batted .207 before All-Star break or the one who hit .276 (15 home runs) after it? Shortstop Starlin Castro is fun to watch.
Chicago used to have dominant rotation, but this is no longer the case with the Cubs having a collection of No. 3 or No. 4 starters with Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza and others. Carlos Marmol is the single-most dominate reliever in baseball. It just isn’t pitch after pitch and he often has to bail himself out.
Season win total pick: Over 82.5
Cincinnati Reds
Last season record: 91-71
Projected season win total: O/U 85.5
Odds to win division: +220
Biggest impact loss: LHR Arthur Rhodes
Biggest impact addition: SS Edgar Renteria
Reds Outlook: After their first division crown in 15 years, Cincinnati did what any conservative poker player would do with a good hand and checked this offseason. The Reds front office think they have the right mix of veterans and youngsters and, like San Francisco, hopes their young pitching talent can put it all together at once.
Cincy features a potent lineup that led the senior circuit in runs scored (4.87 per game) and home runs (188). National League MVP Joey Votto had an OPS of 1.024 last season and is complimented by 2B Brandon Phillips, RF Jay Bruce and 3B Scott Rolen. A Cactus League scout I spoke to said, “The Reds need good backup for Rolen, whose age and injuries are catching up with him. At 120 games max (Rolen) can still produce.”
Here is a nice problem to have: Homer Bailey (24 years old), Travis Wood (24), Mike Leake (23) and Aroldis “Cuban Missile” Chapman (23) are vying for two starting spots along with Edinson Volquez, Bronson Arroyo and Johnny Cueto.
Season win total pick: Over 85.5
Houston Astros
Last season record: 76-86
Projected season win total: O/U 72
Odds to win division: +3,500
Biggest loss: 1B Geoff Blum
Biggest addition: 2B Bill Hall
Astros Outlook: Owner Drayton McLane long neglected Houston’s player development, trying to chase a World Series title since 1994, and that lack of attention will again keep the Astros below .500 for a third straight year. Take any team in the National League and compare their infield to Houston’s. This is how the Astros will probably start the year: 1B Brett Wallace, 2B Bill Hall, SS Clint Barmes and 3B Chris Johnson.
Hunter Pence is the closest player to an All-Star on the roster with a solid career batting average and at least 25 dingers three seasons running. Center fielder Michael Bourn is a two-time Gold Glove winner and can steal any base but first. Carlos Lee is in decline as hitter, which is bad news because of his fielding liabilities.
Brett Myers is off a career season, but with weak offense and defense, matching 14 victories and 3.14 ERA will be a challenge. Left hander Wandy Rodriguez and Bud Norris were effective in the second half and each will need to start quicker in 2011.
Season win total pick: Over 72
Milwaukee Brewers
Last season record: 77-85
Projected season win total: O/U 86.5
Odds to win: +140
Biggest loss: SS Alcides Escobar
Biggest addition: RHP Zack Greinke, RHP Shaun Marcum
Brewers Outlook: Milwaukee has often featured its fair share of sluggers, like Hall of Famers Robin Yount and Paul Molitor, along with Gorman Thomas from the Bambi’s Bombers and Harvey Wallbanger’s days, to the current crop with Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Casey McGehee and Corey Hart. However, the best Brewers teams always had quality starting pitching and this club might be throwing a beer bash at the end of the regular season.
Offseason acquisitions of Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum are the perfect complement to ace Yovani Gallardo and fourth starter Randy Wolf. Greinke is well known for his talent and “different” personality and claims he’s recharged playing for contender. Marcum had 3.64 ERA last season pitching in rugged AL East. Gallardo was 14-7 and second in punch-outs per nine innings (9.7).
It’s a foregone conclusion Milwaukee will hit and score runs, nevertheless the biggest trend in baseball is run prevention, which means CF Carlos Gomez, middle infielders Rickie Weeks and Yuniesky Betancourt have to be tight for new manager Ron Roenicke.
Season win total pick: Over 86.5
Pittsburgh Pirates
Last season record: 57-105
Projected season win total: O/U 67.5
Odds to win division: +10,000
Biggest loss: OF Lastings Miledge, RHP Zach Duke
Biggest addition: RHR Kevin Correia, 1B Lyle Overbay
Pirates Outlook: If this was a real world business, the Pittsburgh franchise would have gone out of business a long time ago after 18 consecutive losing seasons. The Pirates were everyone’s favorite visitor a year ago with only 17 road victories, which tied the 1962 New York Mets for worst all-time road record since the 162-game schedule was indoctrinated.
The glimmer of hope for Bucs fans is a descent nucleus of young talent led by CF Andrew McCutchen. The foundation of the future also includes 3B Pedro Alverez, 2B Neil Walker and LF Jose Tabata. Lyle Overbay brings above average leather at first and a doubles bat.
The pitching is a completely different matter. The Pittsburgh hurlers had ERA of 5.00 in 2010. For non-sabermetrics baseball bettors, the simple methodology is that the Pirates, on average, had to score six runs a game to win. Pittsburgh lacks a No. 1, 2 or 3 starter and will fill those rolls by default. When the Bucs are in position to snatch victory, closer Joel Hanrahan has mid-90’s heat and a knee-buckling slider.
Season win total pick: Under 67.5
St. Louis Cardinals
Last season record: 86-76
Projected season win total: O/U 82.5
Odds to win division: +400
Biggest loss: 3B Pedro Feliz, RHP Adam Wainwright
Biggest addition: SS Ryan Theriot
Cards Outlook: The St. Louis Cardinals’ World Series odds swelled even before the first pitch was thrown in spring training, with the Adam Wainwright scheduled for Tommy John surgery. The day it was announced the right hander was gone for the year, their odds shifted from +1,400 to +2,000 and they’re still climbing. Manager Tony LaRussa should have some time to find a replacement based on the early schedule, which only shows 12 of first 38 games against teams that were over .500 a year ago.
Kyle McClellan is the early favorite to take Wainwright’s spot in the rotation, with others possible to emerge. This places significant pressure on Chris Carpenter to win each time out and the other starters, like Jake Westbrook, Jaime Garcia and Kyle Lohse, to be more effective.
The Redbirds have the players to score runs in bunches led by Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday, however, the defensive range of this club is similar to Milwaukee. Not a positive sign.
Season win total pick: Under 82.5
The Central Division has had three different champions in the past three years, which doesn’t bode well for the Cincinnati Reds – the defending NL Central champs.
The St. Louis Cardinals chances took a hit before the first pitch of an exhibition game was thrown. The Milwaukee Brewers addressed their most important need, starting pitching, during the offseason and they are convinced they’ll make a serious run in the Central Division.
The Chicago Cubs believe they are a dark horse, yet they’re having a difficult time finding believers outside of those drinking the blue and red Kool-aid. Houston has the weakest infield in the National League, which takes the Astros out of contention. For those who dislike change, the Pittsburgh Pirates make the world a safer place.
Chicago Cubs
Last season record: 75-87
Projected season win total: O/U 82.5
Odds to win division: +400
Biggest impact loss: OF Xavier Nady
Biggest impact addition: 1B Carlos Pena, RHP Matt Garza
Cubs Outlook: As has been the case since 1909, “Wait till next year” has arrived on the North Side of Chicago. Long-time baseball man Mike Quade convinced Cubs management he’s the right individual to make Chicago a division contender in 2011, after a 24-13 close in a trial run last year. Quade’s approach worked for a team not facing pressure, but the real test begins starting with a new right side of the infield and an aging lineup that used to bludgeon opponents five years ago.
First baseman Carlos Pena has to make more contact after batting .196 and which Aramis Ramirez will show up this season - the one who batted .207 before All-Star break or the one who hit .276 (15 home runs) after it? Shortstop Starlin Castro is fun to watch.
Chicago used to have dominant rotation, but this is no longer the case with the Cubs having a collection of No. 3 or No. 4 starters with Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza and others. Carlos Marmol is the single-most dominate reliever in baseball. It just isn’t pitch after pitch and he often has to bail himself out.
Season win total pick: Over 82.5
Cincinnati Reds
Last season record: 91-71
Projected season win total: O/U 85.5
Odds to win division: +220
Biggest impact loss: LHR Arthur Rhodes
Biggest impact addition: SS Edgar Renteria
Reds Outlook: After their first division crown in 15 years, Cincinnati did what any conservative poker player would do with a good hand and checked this offseason. The Reds front office think they have the right mix of veterans and youngsters and, like San Francisco, hopes their young pitching talent can put it all together at once.
Cincy features a potent lineup that led the senior circuit in runs scored (4.87 per game) and home runs (188). National League MVP Joey Votto had an OPS of 1.024 last season and is complimented by 2B Brandon Phillips, RF Jay Bruce and 3B Scott Rolen. A Cactus League scout I spoke to said, “The Reds need good backup for Rolen, whose age and injuries are catching up with him. At 120 games max (Rolen) can still produce.”
Here is a nice problem to have: Homer Bailey (24 years old), Travis Wood (24), Mike Leake (23) and Aroldis “Cuban Missile” Chapman (23) are vying for two starting spots along with Edinson Volquez, Bronson Arroyo and Johnny Cueto.
Season win total pick: Over 85.5
Houston Astros
Last season record: 76-86
Projected season win total: O/U 72
Odds to win division: +3,500
Biggest loss: 1B Geoff Blum
Biggest addition: 2B Bill Hall
Astros Outlook: Owner Drayton McLane long neglected Houston’s player development, trying to chase a World Series title since 1994, and that lack of attention will again keep the Astros below .500 for a third straight year. Take any team in the National League and compare their infield to Houston’s. This is how the Astros will probably start the year: 1B Brett Wallace, 2B Bill Hall, SS Clint Barmes and 3B Chris Johnson.
Hunter Pence is the closest player to an All-Star on the roster with a solid career batting average and at least 25 dingers three seasons running. Center fielder Michael Bourn is a two-time Gold Glove winner and can steal any base but first. Carlos Lee is in decline as hitter, which is bad news because of his fielding liabilities.
Brett Myers is off a career season, but with weak offense and defense, matching 14 victories and 3.14 ERA will be a challenge. Left hander Wandy Rodriguez and Bud Norris were effective in the second half and each will need to start quicker in 2011.
Season win total pick: Over 72
Milwaukee Brewers
Last season record: 77-85
Projected season win total: O/U 86.5
Odds to win: +140
Biggest loss: SS Alcides Escobar
Biggest addition: RHP Zack Greinke, RHP Shaun Marcum
Brewers Outlook: Milwaukee has often featured its fair share of sluggers, like Hall of Famers Robin Yount and Paul Molitor, along with Gorman Thomas from the Bambi’s Bombers and Harvey Wallbanger’s days, to the current crop with Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Casey McGehee and Corey Hart. However, the best Brewers teams always had quality starting pitching and this club might be throwing a beer bash at the end of the regular season.
Offseason acquisitions of Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum are the perfect complement to ace Yovani Gallardo and fourth starter Randy Wolf. Greinke is well known for his talent and “different” personality and claims he’s recharged playing for contender. Marcum had 3.64 ERA last season pitching in rugged AL East. Gallardo was 14-7 and second in punch-outs per nine innings (9.7).
It’s a foregone conclusion Milwaukee will hit and score runs, nevertheless the biggest trend in baseball is run prevention, which means CF Carlos Gomez, middle infielders Rickie Weeks and Yuniesky Betancourt have to be tight for new manager Ron Roenicke.
Season win total pick: Over 86.5
Pittsburgh Pirates
Last season record: 57-105
Projected season win total: O/U 67.5
Odds to win division: +10,000
Biggest loss: OF Lastings Miledge, RHP Zach Duke
Biggest addition: RHR Kevin Correia, 1B Lyle Overbay
Pirates Outlook: If this was a real world business, the Pittsburgh franchise would have gone out of business a long time ago after 18 consecutive losing seasons. The Pirates were everyone’s favorite visitor a year ago with only 17 road victories, which tied the 1962 New York Mets for worst all-time road record since the 162-game schedule was indoctrinated.
The glimmer of hope for Bucs fans is a descent nucleus of young talent led by CF Andrew McCutchen. The foundation of the future also includes 3B Pedro Alverez, 2B Neil Walker and LF Jose Tabata. Lyle Overbay brings above average leather at first and a doubles bat.
The pitching is a completely different matter. The Pittsburgh hurlers had ERA of 5.00 in 2010. For non-sabermetrics baseball bettors, the simple methodology is that the Pirates, on average, had to score six runs a game to win. Pittsburgh lacks a No. 1, 2 or 3 starter and will fill those rolls by default. When the Bucs are in position to snatch victory, closer Joel Hanrahan has mid-90’s heat and a knee-buckling slider.
Season win total pick: Under 67.5
St. Louis Cardinals
Last season record: 86-76
Projected season win total: O/U 82.5
Odds to win division: +400
Biggest loss: 3B Pedro Feliz, RHP Adam Wainwright
Biggest addition: SS Ryan Theriot
Cards Outlook: The St. Louis Cardinals’ World Series odds swelled even before the first pitch was thrown in spring training, with the Adam Wainwright scheduled for Tommy John surgery. The day it was announced the right hander was gone for the year, their odds shifted from +1,400 to +2,000 and they’re still climbing. Manager Tony LaRussa should have some time to find a replacement based on the early schedule, which only shows 12 of first 38 games against teams that were over .500 a year ago.
Kyle McClellan is the early favorite to take Wainwright’s spot in the rotation, with others possible to emerge. This places significant pressure on Chris Carpenter to win each time out and the other starters, like Jake Westbrook, Jaime Garcia and Kyle Lohse, to be more effective.
The Redbirds have the players to score runs in bunches led by Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday, however, the defensive range of this club is similar to Milwaukee. Not a positive sign.
Season win total pick: Under 82.5
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