Thursday's Trends and Indexes - 3/31 (NBA, NCAAB, NHL, MLB, Misc.)

[Udog]

NHL
Dunkel


Ottawa at Florida
The Panthers look to take advantage of an Ottawa team that is coming off a 5-2 loss at Tampa Bay and is 2-5 in its last 7 games after allowing 5 goals or more in the previous game. Florida is the pick (-135) according to Dunkel, which has the Panthers favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Florida (-135). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, MARCH 31

Game 51-52: Columbus at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 10.232; Washington 11.430
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-235); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-235); Under

Game 53-54: Atlanta at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 11.749; Philadelphia 11.510
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-245); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+205); Over

Game 55-56: NY Rangers at NY Islanders (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 11.939; NY Islanders 10.483
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-135); Over

Game 57-58: Toronto at Boston (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 12.402; Boston 11.441
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-215); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+180); Under

Game 59-60: Ottawa at Florida (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 10.143; Florida 11.398
Dunkel Line & Total: Florida by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Florida (-135); 5
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-135); Under

Game 61-62: Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 12.058; Tampa Bay 10.804
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+105); Over

Game 63-64: Edmonton at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 10.549; Minnesota 9.389
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-215); 5
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+180); Under

Game 65-66: Nashville at Colorado (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 11.772; Colorado 10.092
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nashville (-160); Over

Game 67-68: Los Angeles at Vancouver (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 12.752; Vancouver 11.743
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-175); 5
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+155); Over

Game 69-70: Dallas at San Jose (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 10.971; San Jose 12.916
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-200); 5
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-200); Under

[Udog]

NHL
Write-Up


Thursday, March 31

Hot Teams
-- Washington won 12 of its last 15 games.
-- Thrashers are 6-0 in games following their last six losses.
-- Rangers won six of last eight games, but scored total of three goals in their last four games (1-2 in last three).
-- Bruins, Toronto both won four of their last five games.
-- Pittsburgh won six of its last eight games. Lightning won its last two games, 4-2/5-2.
-- Predators won six of their last seven games.
-- Kings won four in row, eight of last ten games. Vancouver won four in a row, 10 of last 11 games.
-- San Jose won five of its last six games.

Cold Teams
-- Blue Jackets lost six of their last eight games.
-- Flyers lost their last four home games.
-- Islanders lost three in row, six of last eight games.
-- Florida lost its last six games, scoring eight goals. Senators lost four of their last five road games.
-- Edmonton lost its last ten games, scoring 11 goals. Minnesota is 1-8 in its last nine games.
-- Colorado lost three in row, 13 of last 15 games.
-- Dallas Stars lost last four games, three in OT or SO.

Totals
-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Columbus games.
-- Three of last four Atlanta games stayed under the total.
-- Last four Ranger games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Boston games stayed under the total. Four of last five Toronto games went over.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Florida games.
-- Three of last four Penguin games stayed under the total. Tampa Bay's last four games went over.
-- Under is 8-2 in last ten Edmonton games.
-- Over is 9-2 in last eleven Colorado games.
-- Five of last six Los Angeles games stayed under total.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven San Jose games.

Back-to-Back
-- Islanders are 2-6 if they lost the night before. Rangers are 4-1 if they are playing second consecutive night on the road.

Series records
-- Columbus/Washington split last six games, with road team winning five of the six.
-- Thrashers won six of last seven games against Philadelphia.
-- Rangers won their last four games against the Islanders.
-- Bruins lost three of last four games against Toronto.
-- Senators won their last five games against Florida.
-- Penguins are 7-3 in last ten games vs Tampa Bay, winning last couple games, 5-1/8-1.
-- Oilers are 0-4 vs Minnesota this season, outscored 16-6.
-- Predators won six of last seven games against Colorado.
-- Kings are 5-10 in their last fifteen games against Vancouver.
-- Dallas Stars are 5-2 in last seven visits to San Jose.

[Udog]

NHL


Thursday, March 31

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta

7:00 PM
COLUMBUS vs. WASHINGTON
Columbus is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Columbus's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Columbus
Washington is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games

7:00 PM
NY RANGERS vs. NY ISLANDERS
NY Rangers are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games when playing on the road against NY Islanders
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Rangers last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Islanders
The total has gone OVER in 14 of the NY Islanders last 21 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Islanders last 6 games when playing NY Rangers

7:00 PM
TORONTO vs. BOSTON
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Toronto's last 21 games when playing Boston
Toronto is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games when playing Boston
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Boston's last 21 games when playing Toronto
Boston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Toronto

7:30 PM
OTTAWA vs. FLORIDA
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Ottawa's last 9 games when playing Florida
Ottawa is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Florida
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Florida's last 9 games when playing Ottawa
Florida is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Ottawa

7:30 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. TAMPA BAY
Pittsburgh is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Pittsburgh's last 18 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games at home
Tampa Bay is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home

8:00 PM
EDMONTON vs. MINNESOTA
Edmonton is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Edmonton's last 6 games on the road
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Edmonton
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Edmonton

9:00 PM
NASHVILLE vs. COLORADO
Nashville is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Nashville's last 12 games on the road
Colorado is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Colorado's last 5 games at home

10:00 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. VANCOUVER
Los Angeles is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Vancouver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Los Angeles's last 7 games when playing on the road against Vancouver
Vancouver is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Vancouver's last 8 games at home

10:30 PM
DALLAS vs. SAN JOSE
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing on the road against San Jose
Dallas is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games on the road


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[Udog]

NHL


Thursday, March 31

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Ice picks: Thursday's best NHL bets
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Los Angeles Kings at Vancouver Canucks (-175, 5)

So far, the Los Angeles Kings are getting by all right without Anze Kopitar, who suffered a season-ending ankle injury on Saturday. The Kings have won both of their games since, but this is the sort of injury that will catch up with the team sooner rather than later.

Kopitar doesn’t get a lot of publicity, but he’s the heartbeat of this team’s offense. He had 73 points in 75 games this season and was a plus-25. What’s worse, Los Angeles’ No. 2 scorer Justin Williams is also out with a shoulder injury, leaving captain Dustin Brown and his 54 points to carry the offensive load.

“It's just going to be a good test for this young hockey club," coach Terry Murray told reporters. "We'll be better when we come through it. There's no question about it. Guys are going to be in a higher situation, more important situation, and they'll grow immensely through this opportunity."

Maybe eventually, but this is a tough spot for the Kings, even against a Canucks club that is on autopilot. Alex Burrows scored twice to lead the Canucks to 3-1 win over Nashville on Tuesday, completing a 4-0 road trip for the club.

Pick: Under



Ottawa Senators at Florida Panthers (-135, 5)

Anytime when you see the Florida Panthers set as a chalk, you have to take a serious look at it – especially this time of year.

The Panthers are 1-7 in the last eight games in which they’ve been favored and that shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone. Well, outside of coach Pete DeBoer, apparently.

They were all one-goal games late or in the third period," DeBoer told reporters after Florida dropped a 3-2 decision to the Columbus Blue Jackets in a shootout. "We lost twice in the shootout. Our guys aren't quitting. We're just not getting the points I think are deserving of their effort. They're battling right to the final game."

Rewind a week ago and that wasn't the tune goaltender Tomas Vokoun was singing. The Panthers may be keeping it close lately, but this number is too steep.

Pick: Senators


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[Udog]

MLB
Dunkel


San Francisco at LA Dodgers
The Dodgers look to build on their 13-3 record in Clayton Kershaw's last 16 starts against the NL West. LA is the pick (-110) according to Dunkel, which has the Dodgers favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-110). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, MARCH 31

Game 901-902: Atlanta at Washington (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Lowe) 14.237; Washington (Hernandez) 15.515
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+130); Under

Game 903-904: Milwaukee at Cincinnati (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 14.812; Cincinnati (Volquez) 15.991
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-115); Over

Game 905-906: San Diego at St. Louis (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Stauffer) 16.261; St. Louis (Carpenter) 15.156
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-200); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+170); Over

Game 907-908: San Francisco at LA Dodgers (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 14.694; LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 16.183
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-110); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-110); Under

Game 909-910: Detroit at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 15.279; NY Yankees (Sabathia) 15.998
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-150); Over

Game 911-912: LA Angels at Kansas City (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 14.270; Kansas City (Hochevar) 15.893
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+130); Under

[Udog]

MLB
Write-Up


Thursday, March 31

For first week or two of any season, not lot of stats make sense, but I'll be giving you pitching stats that refer back to LY. We'll start the umpire stats in late April-- will give you pitcher vs team stats until some of the other stats start to become relevant. We're here every day-- enjoy!!!

Pitchers
Hot pitchers
-- Lowe is 5-2, 1.73 in his last seven starts.
-- Gallardo is 3-0, 3.77 in his last five starts. Volquez has a 3.07 RA in his last five starts, but only one win.
-- Stauffer is 2-1, 1.37 in his last three starts.
-- Lincecum is 9-2, 2.30 in his last eleven starts. Kershaw was 4-3, 2.50 in his last eight starts.

-- Verlander is 4-1, 1.80 in his last five starts.
-- Weaver is 3-1, 2.55 in his last five starts.

Cold pitchers
-- LHernandez is 2-4, 6.51 in his last eight starts.
-- Carpenter is 1-4, 6.83 in his last five starts.

-- Sabathia has a 5.70 RA in his last five starts, but Bronx is still 11-3 in his last 14 outings.
-- Hochevar is 1-3, 5.19 in his last five starts.

Totals
-- Lowe's last four starts stayed under the total.
-- Last Volquez starts stayed under total; over is 8-3-1 in Gallardo's last dozen outings.
-- All seven Stauffer starts LY stayed under total.
-- Four of last five Kershaw starts stayed under the total. 5:00 local time start means lot of shadows if its a sunny day.

-- Six of last nine Verlander starts went over the total.
-- Under is 5-1 in Hochever's last six home starts. Under is 16-2-1 in last 19 Weaver starts.

Pitchers vs teams last year
-- Lowe was 2-3, 3.52 vs Washington LY. LHernandez was 2-1, 2.64 in five starts against the Braves.
-- Gallardo was 0-2, 9.58 in three starts vs Reds LY. Volquez was 1-0, 3.86 in two starts against Milwaukee.
-- Stauffer lost 4-0 in St Louis Sept 16, allowing four runs in five IP.
-- Lincecum was 2-0, 3.57 in three starts vs LA last season. Kershaw was 1-1, 2.17 in four starts against the Giants LY.

-- Verlander was 1-1, 2.31 against Bronx LY. Sabathia was 1-1, 5.54 in two starts against Detroit LY.
-- Weaver was 1-0, 0.60 in two '10 starts against the Royals (15 IP). Hochever lost 7-1 to Angels May 31 (five runs/seven IP).

[Udog]

MLB


Thursday, March 31

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Trend Report
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1:05 PM
DETROIT vs. NY YANKEES
Detroit is 1-6 SU in their last 7 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Detroit's last 11 games when playing NY Yankees
NY Yankees are 3-6 SU in their last 9 games at home
NY Yankees are 9-4 SU in their last 13 games when playing Detroit

1:05 PM
ATLANTA vs. WASHINGTON
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
Atlanta is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games at home

2:10 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. CINCINNATI
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Milwaukee's last 10 games
Milwaukee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Cincinnati is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games when playing Milwaukee
Cincinnati is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games at home

4:10 PM
LA ANGELS vs. KANSAS CITY
LA Angels are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games
LA Angels are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing LA Angels
Kansas City is 2-9 SU in their last 11 games when playing at home against LA Angels

4:15 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games
San Diego is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 8 of St. Louis's last 10 games when playing at home against San Diego
St. Louis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

8:10 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. LA DODGERS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
San Francisco is 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of LA Dodgers's last 12 games


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[Udog]

MLB


Thursday, March 31

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Hot lines: Thursday's MLB best bets
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Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees (-145, 8)

Nasty weather is expected to treat fans for Thursday’s 1 p.m. season opener at Yankee Stadium.

We’re talking chilly temperatures and a stiff E-NE wind blowing in from left-center field.

Those conditions in addition to a battle of staff aces, Detroit’s Justin Verlander and New York’s CC Sabathia, would seem to indicate a low-scoring affair. But this is the new Yankee Stadium, a hitter friendly park and home to the highest-scoring offense in baseball last season.

Overs went 48-32 at Yankee Stadium last season.

Pick: Over 8


Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds (-114, 8)

You have to love when a team’s stars pounds the opponent’s starter. That’s the case in Thursday’s afternoon tilt between the visiting Brewers and Reds at Great American Ball Park.

The Brewers have to settle for righthander Yovani Gallardo as their opening-day starter. They expected offseason-acquisition Zack Greinke on the hill for the opener, but, instead, Greinke will start the season on DL after suffering a rib injury in a pick-up basketball game.

Gallardo’s no slouch, but he’s struggled against the Reds, with a 2-3 career mark and 5.56 ERA in eight starts. Reigning MVP Joey Votto and Scott Rolen are a combined 13 of 27 with nine RBIs against Gallardo.

Pick: Reds -114


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[Udog]

NBA
Short Sheet


Thursday, March 31

BOSTON at SAN ANTONIO, 8:00 PM ET TNT
BOSTON: 12-4 ATS off BB ATS losses
SAN ANTONIO: 0-3 ATS off BB SU losses

DALLAS at LA LAKERS, 10:30 PM ET TNT
DALLAS: 15-3 ATS Away off ATS win
LA LAKERS: 5-13 ATS off BB home games

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[Udog]

NCAAB
Short Sheet


Thursday, March 31

NIT Tournament - Championship Game

WICHITA ST vs. ALABAMA, 7:00 PM ET ESPN2
WICHITA ST: 6-0 ATS as neutral court favorite of 6 pts or less
ALABAMA: 0-7 ATS in non-conference road games

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[Udog]

MLB
Short Sheet


Thursday, March 31

National League

ATLANTA at WASHINGTON, 1:05 PM ET
LOWE: ATLANTA 56-27 as a favorite of -125 to -175
HERNANDEZ: 12-0 Under vs. division opponents

MILWAUKEE at CINCINNATI, 2:10 PM ET
GALLARDO: 10-16 TSR in day games
VOLQUEZ: 19-7 TSR vs. division opponents

SAN DIEGO at ST LOUIS, 4:15 PM ET ESPN
STAUFFER: 7-0 Under in all starts last year
CARPENTER: 54-31 Under as a home favorite of -150 or more

SAN FRANCISCO at LA DODGERS, 8:00 PM ET ESPN
LINCECUM: 14-4 TSR in road games
KERSHAW: 17-9 TSR vs. division

American League

DETROIT at NY YANKEES, 1:05 PM ET ESPN
VERLANDER: 43-19 TSR on grass
SABATHIA: YANKEES 31-18 Over at home vs. righties

LA ANGELS at KANSAS CITY, 4:10 PM ET
WEAVER: 60-35 Under as favorite
HOCHEVAR: KC 4-16 vs. Angels

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[Udog]

American League East: Season win total and picks

The Boston Red Sox were not satisfied sitting on the sidelines watching the postseason on television last fall, so general manager Theo Epstein acquired a couple All-Stars bats to bolster the offense.

The New York Yankees were overwhelmed by Texas in the playoffs and their starting pitching places them no better than a wild card team. Tampa Bay cannot draw fans even being one of the top teams in baseball over the past few years and had to cut its payroll (talent).

Toronto and Baltimore have positives attributes; unfortunately they each play 54 games against the top three teams in their division which makes it difficult to move up.

Baltimore Orioles

Last season record: 66-96
Projected season win total: 76.5
Odds to win: +2000

Biggest loss: IN Ty Wigginton
Biggest additions: 3B Mark Reynolds, DH Vladimir Guerrero

Orioles Outlook: After a 2-16 start last season and four months of blunders, Baltimore turned to Buck Showalter as a mid-season managerial replacement. Showalter is known for micro-managing, but that was exactly what Orioles needed and they excelled with 34-23 record to finish the 2010 campaign.

The Baltimore front office blew up last year’s non-productive infield and replaced three of the parts. The left side of the infield will feature sluggers Mark Reynolds and J.J. Hardy and when the duo takes the field for defense, they will be throwing to 1B Derrick Lee. Second baseman Brian Roberts is still the elixir to the O’s offense even at 35 years old.

The outfield has talent with CF Adam Jones and RF Nick Markakis, and, combined with Felix Pie in leftfield, this should be one of the best defensive outfields in baseball.

Showalter has Jeremy Guthrie as the staff ace and Brian Matusz and Jake Arrieta are both highly regarded by baseball scouts. It will be the days this trio doesn’t pitch, coupled with substandard bullpen, which will create difficulties for the Orioles.

Season win total pick: Under



Boston Red Sox

Last season record: 89-73
Projected season win total: 95.5
Odds to win: -152

Biggest losses: 3B Adrian Beltre, C Victor Martinez
Biggest additions: 1B Adrian Gonzalez, OF Carl Crawford

Red Sox Outlook: For most major league teams, winning 89 games is heady stuff. However in the AL East, that sent you home after the regular season last year. Normally, Boston doesn’t look to make a big splash, instead staying the course of building their farm system and compensating the talent on hand. This past off-season Boston went for the jugular, signing Crawford and Gonzalez and last year’s second best offense in the junior circuit appears unstoppable. With Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, J.D. Drew and Jacoby Ellsbury paired with their new impressive teammates; opposing pitching coaches won’t get much sleep before a series against Boston.

The starting pitching is part awesome and part ordinary. Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz are young studs that should have no problems matching last year’s numbers. How good Boston can ultimately become will depend on if Josh Beckett and John Lackey adjust when not having their A-game stuff and can still retire hitters with regularity. Daisuke Matsuzaka remains more unpredictable than Tim Wakefield’s knuckleball.

Jonathan Paplebon showed signs of no longer being a dominant closer and the Red Sox retooled their bullpen accordingly.

Season win total pick: Over



New York Yankees

Last season record: 95-67
Projected season win total: 91.5
Odds to win: +180

Biggest loss: SP Andy Pettitte
Biggest additions: RP Rafael Soriano, Russell Martin

Yankees Outlook: The Bronx Bombers led all of baseball averaging 5.3 runs per game a season ago and may have to match or beat that figure to stay as an AL East contender this year. After C.C. Sabathia and Phil Hughes, the drop-off in starting pitching is like going from Scarlett Johansson to Roseanne Barr; it’s not pretty. New pitching coach Larry Rothschild is in charge of fixing A.J. Burnett both mechanically and psychologically. New York brought in a carload of older free agent pitchers trying to fill the rest of the rotation.

The Yankees have acquired Rafael Soriano as a set-up man for Mariano Rivera, but it would help the entire staff if Joba Chamberlain could return as effective starter.

New York has a number of star players past their prime, yet the collection of Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriquez and Jorge Posada is still better than what most AL teams fill out a lineup card with daily. Robinson Cano would hit third for more than half the teams in baseball, but not with the Yankees, which tells you scoring runs won’t be an issue. Manager Joe Garardi will have greater expectations for Mark Teixeira than a .256 batting average, suffering his lowest on-base percentage (.365) since his rookie year in 2003.

Season win total pick: Over



Tampa Bay Rays

Last season record: 96-66
Projected season win total: 84.5
Odds to win: +800

Biggest losses: SP Matt Garza, OF Carl Crawford
Biggest additions: OF Johnny Damon, DH Manny Ramirez

Rays Outlook: Tampa Bay will raise its second American League East division championship flag to start the season, but in the off-season waved the white flag in a concession that expenses were outweighing profits. The Rays moved seven important pieces from last year’s 96-win club and will refill those positions with less talented replacements. Tampa Bay is not about to return to the days of 60+ wins this season, but will be a shell of its former selves.

Tampa Bay is trying to keep pace with its core players and retool with youngsters. Evan Longoria, enigmatic B.J. Upton and Ben Zobrist are now the gritty veterans and they will be surrounded by newcomers like LF Desmond Jennings, SS Reid Brignac and 1B Dan Johnson. Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez will try and maintain the AL’s third-rated offense from last year (4.95 runs per contest).

The Rays felt comfortable enough in trading Garza because pitchers David Price and Wade Davis are stars in the making and the rest of the rotation is sound. The two seasons Tampa Bay won the AL East it had a domineering bullpen, which might be a stretch in 2011.

Season win total pick: Under



Toronto Blue Jays

Last season record: 85-77
Projected season win total: 76.5
Odds to win: +1600

Biggest loss: SP Shawn Marcum, RP Kevin Gregg
Biggest addition: RP Octavio Dotel

Jays Outlook: Toronto has won 85 or more games in three of the last five seasons, which in most divisions has a team playing serious baseball late into September. The Jays are in the unenviable position of being matched with three of the best clubs not only in the American League, but in their division. Last year Toronto decided to come out swinging, literally, leading the big leagues in home runs with 257, which was 46 more than the next closest competitor the Red Sox. (Largest difference in 42 years) If you factor in the Blue Jays pitching staff was fifth in homers allowed at 150, Toronto’s differential between home runs hit and allowed was the widest margin since the fabled 1927 Yankees.

Slugger Jose Bautista takes his 54 home runs over to third base full time. Nobody expects him to match that figure, but the hope is Adam Lind returns to 2009 form, which would make up for the shortfall. Jays’ hitters do not get cheated at the dish.

Shaun Marcum was traded away in the belief that Kyle Drabek is ready to begin long and fruitful career as starter. Toronto is satisfied with the rest of its staff, however having Dustin McGowan and Jesse Litsch return from their injuries would be a huge plus.

Season win total pick: Over

[Udog]

AL Central odds: Can the Twins hold off the Sox and Tigers?

Oddsmakers have made their feelings known; the Central Division should be a hotly contested race. A quick peek at the MLB futures odds board will tell the story.

Minnesota, the defending champion, lost a few pieces but will have Joe Nathan and Justin Morneau returning. Chicago spent a lot cash to improve its offense and is a definite contender. Detroit upgraded its lumber department too and believes a first-rate bullpen will compliment its starting pitchers.

There is a large chasm from the top three to Cleveland and Kansas City. The Indians have gaping holes on the field as well as the pitching staff and the Royals best talent is in the farm system and not quite ready for The Show.

Chicago White Sox

Last season record: 88-74
Projected season win total: 85.5
Odds to win: +191

Biggest losses: RP Bobby Jenks, RP Scott Linebrink
Biggest additions: 1B Adam Dunn, RP Jesse Crain

White Sox Outlook: At the end of last season Paul Konerko thanked White Sox fans, figuring he would be playing somewhere else this year. Instead, Konerko is not only back but is joined by Adam Dunn with his 40 home runs and 100+ runs batted in. With Juan Pierre leading off and Carlos Quentin, Alex Rios, Alexei Ramirez and Gordon Beckham part of the supporting cast, Chicago’s offense appears extremely formidable.

On the presumption Jake Peavy is 80 percent the hurler he was in San Diego; the Pale Hose might send five quality starters to the mound with regularity. John Danks is the ace of the staff and Mark Buehrle and Gavin Floyd are expected to get their earned run averages back below 4.00 this season. Adding right-hander Jesse Crain (career 2.82 ERA vs. Central division foes) to complement lefties Matt Thornton and Chris Sales gives the White Sox a staunch look heading into the late innings. Duplicating last season’s 44 comeback victories (second best in AL) might be a stretch, even with an improved offense.

Season win total pick: Over 85.5



Cleveland Indians

Last season record: 69-93
Projected season win total: 71
Odds to win: +2461

Biggest loss: IF Andy Marte
Biggest addition: OF Austin Kearns

Indians Outlook: In 2007 the Cleveland Indians were one game away from the World Series, but with this current crop of players, the only way they will go to the Fall Classic is with a purchased ticket. Gone are the days of continual sellouts (Cleveland was 30th in attendance in baseball last year) and a fruitful farm system. Grady Sizemore, at 28 years old, should be in his prime, but off two injury-marred campaigns, his stock as an elite player has fallen. If Sizemore can return to pre-injury form, the Indians outfield will at least be above average with Michael Bradley and Shin-Soo Choo. The infield is a definite weakness, but Carlos Santana is a keeper as catcher.

For better or worse, Fausto Carmona is the Tribe’s best pitcher with 22 quality starts among the 33 times he toed the rubber. Carmona’s heavy sinker induced 30 double plays last year. The rest of the pitching staff could be charitably described as pedestrian. Manager Manny Acta has a knack for stressing the positive; he will have to look long and hard to find the right words this season.

Season win total pick: Under 71



Detroit Tigers

Last season record: 81-81
Projected season win total: 83.5
Odds to win: +228

Biggest losses: C Gerald Laird, RP Jeremy Bonderman
Biggest additions: C/1B Victor Martinez, RP Joaquin Benoit

Tigers Outlook: General manager Dave Dombrowski is bullish on his team’s chances to win the division. The addition of Victor Martinez adds another stick in the batting order to go along with Miguel Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez and exciting CF Austin Jackson. Cabrera is a once in a decade slugger and has to pull his life together for himself and his teammates. Though there are weak gloves at a few positions, others will feature some of the best in the American League like Jackson and Brandon Inge.

Justin Verlander is the best starting pitcher in the division and if Max Scherzer (2.46 ERA last 23 starts) and Rick Porcello make the expected progression of young pitchers, Detroit has reason to be giddy. Adding Joaquin Benoit from Tampa Bay is a perfect match with closer Jose Velverde, giving the Tigers the appearance of a water-tight bullpen.

Season win total pick: Over 81



Kansas City Royals

Last season record: 67-95
Projected season win total: 69.5
Odds to win: +2927

Biggest losses: SP Zack Greinke, OF David DeJesus
Biggest additions: OF Melky Cabrera, OF Jeff Francoeur

Royals Outlook: The Kansas City franchise lost an average of 96 games in the last decade and Royals fans have witnessed only one winning season since 1994. Why then would there be sense of optimism in the land of beef and barbeque? Well, because the Royals’ farm system, by all accounts, is oozing with talent on nearly every level. Of course that doesn’t help this year’s club which oddsmakers have projected for 93 setbacks.

With the trade of Zack Greinke and the retirement of Gil Meche, a wafer-thin starting staff is what K.C. is left with, having Luck Hochevar and Vin Mazzaro at the top of the rotation, presumably followed by Kyle Davies and Sean O’ Sullivan. At least the combination of setup man Robinson Tejada and closer Joakim Soria is major league level.

Doubles machine Billy Butler (96 two-baggers the last two seasons) is unquestionably the Royals’ top hitter. The rest of the everyday lineup is a collection of average ballplayers who would likely be utility players on winning teams.

Season win total pick: Under 69



Minnesota Twins

Last season record: 94-68
Projected season win total: 86
Odds to win: +159

Biggest loss: RP Jesse Crain, RP Matt Guerrier
Biggest addition: 2B Tsuyoshi Nishioka

Twins Outlook: Minnesota fans from year to year know what to expect from their Twins: A good team that has managed to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox without having anywhere near their payroll. This season will be different, with real excitement on the field and not just a new ball park. Manager Ron Gardenhire has a new double play combination in 2B Tsuyoshi Nishioka and SS Alexi Casilla, who are both 26 years old and born just a week apart. With the return of Justin Morneau, the M&M boys are back, giving Joe Mauer his running mate. Baseball’s most fundamentally sound team also boasts an outfield that can hit and field.

Six different pitchers notched 10 wins for Minnesota last season, but Gardenhire wants to raise the bar for the Twins starters. He expects Francisco Liriano, Brian Duensing and Carl Pavano to rack up loads of quality starts, mixed with domineering performances. One of three holdovers (Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn or Kevin Slowey) needs to lower their ERA’s by a run and throw like a No. 3 starter. Joe Nathan is a bit of a mystery at 36 coming off elbow surgery; nonetheless the rest of the bullpen has good arms.

Season win total pick: 86

[Udog]

Odds to win American League West: Can Rangers repeat?

Texas was a surprise World Series participant last season and has nearly all the pieces returning from the American League’s fourth-best offense at 4.85 runs per game. But without Cliff Lee in the rotation, a return trip to the Fall Classic is remote.

Oakland had the league’s lowest ERA in 2010 and an upgraded lineup makes the A’s a contender. The Los Angeles Angels came up empty in free agency and have question marks throughout their roster. Seattle had the worst offense in the junior circuit by 100 total runs and did virtually nothing to improve a miserable situation.


Los Angeles Angels

Last season record: 80-82
Projected season win total: O/U 83
Odds to win AL West: +263

Biggest loss: OF/DH Hideki Matsui
Biggest addition: LHR Scott Downs

Angels outlook: Remember Angels’ baseball when it featured players on base continually? That style came to an abrupt halt last season. Run production fell 29.6 percent without a true leadoff man and enough hitters on the lineup card that hit for contact and average. Last year was the first time in 49 years the Halos did not have a single regular starter hitting .300 or better. The return of Kendry Morales will help add potency to the batting order and, based on spring training results, manager Mike Scioscia will have to get Mark Trumbo on the scorecard the way he is crushing the ball.

To start the season, Scioscia will pin his hopes on AL West’s best starting staff. Dan Haren and Joel Pineiro placed too much pressure on themselves a season ago and both have expressed a greater comfort level and should fit nicely with ace Jered Weaver and Ervin Santana. If the bullpen becomes settled, it could be a winning campaign.

Season win total pick: Over 83


Oakland Athletics

Last season record: 81-81
Projected season win total: O/U 83.5
Odds to win AL West: +194

Biggest loss: DH Jack Cust
Biggest addition: OF David DeJesus, DH Hideki Matsui

A’s outlook: For the all the love the San Francisco Giants deservedly received, Oakland’s starting pitchers had the lowest ERA (3.47) in the majors in two decades (Boston -1990). General manager Billy Beane sees the similarities with his young studs and is convinced his talented hurlers can match their cross-town rivals’ success, with a bullpen possibly as proficient. Top starter Trevor Cahill permitted right-hand batters to hit only .198 and he has just turned 21 years old. Brett Anderson, Dallas Braden and Gio Gonzalez still have ample room to improve according to Cactus League scouts.

Oakland was 11th in runs scored (4.09) per game and next-to-last in home runs in the AL. The additions of Hideki Matsui, David DeJesus and Josh Willingham is an upgrade to a pitiful offense, however, none of these players have been able to stay healthy. Manager Bob Geren understands this team has to hit for a better average, as it will take three hits to score a run most nights.

Season win total pick: Under 83.5


Seattle Mariners

Last season record: 61-101
Projected season win total: O/U 70
Odds to win AL West: +2,314

Biggest loss: 1B Casey Kotchman, 3B Jose Lopez
Biggest addition: C Miguel Olivo, DH Jack Cust

Mariners outlook: Seattle’s past four seasons have been served hot and cold like the coffee the city is known for. The hot years of 2007 and 2009 produced 88 and 85 wins respectively and the cold campaigns of 2008 and 2010 registered a mere 61 victories. The Mariners offense was offensive, registering numbers not seen in the AL in 20 to 30 years. The unusual part is GM Jack Zduriencik did almost nothing to add punch. Designated hitter Jack Cust will strikeout a ton and hit some homers and catcher Migeul Olivo will quickly find out the difference between Safeco Field and Coors Field. New youngsters will dot the roster around Ichiro Suziki.

Felix Hernandez’s talents are being wasted on a club that can’t score and the dropoff from him to the No. 2 and No. 3 starters is like jumping into the Grand Canyon. Dave Aardsma is a reliable closer, however, the bullpen might not give the right-hander too many leads to work with. The biggest positive might be the defensive outfielders’ ability to track down opponents’ swings of the bat.

Season win total pick: Under 70


Texas Rangers

Last season record: 90-72
Projected season win total: O/U 86.5
Odds to win AL West: +125

Biggest loss: DH Vladimir Guerrero
Biggest addition: 3B Adrian Beltre, LHR Arthur Rhodes

Rangers outlook: It was a banner year for the American League champion Texas Rangers, however, with success comes expectations. Texas’ scoring didn’t catch anyone off guard, but the 3.93 ERA (tied for third in AL) brought a collective “wow” from baseball. There is a great deal of consternation if the Rangers starting staff can duplicate last year’s efforts. Colby Lewis was a revelation returning from Japan and former closer C.J. Wilson took over No. 1 spot in the rotation. Tommy Hunter, at 24 years old, was 13-4 with 3.73 ERA. Even the Rangers front office was not positive this trio can manufacture same results and toyed with the idea of making closer Neftali Felix a starter.

The offense is poised to put up solid numbers again, led by Josh Hamilton’s amazing skill set. He needs to stay healthy, as does outfielder Nelson Cruz and second baseman Ian Kinsler. New third baseman Adrian Beltre regained his stroke in Fenway Park last year and will find Rangers Ballpark equally friendly. Texas will try to duplicate last season’s 71-47 record under the lights.

Season win total pick: Over 86.5

[Udog]

National League East odds and season win total picks

The National League East in 2011 is about simple math, adding and subtracting.

The Philadelphia Phillies added Cliff Lee to formulate arguably the best starting staff in baseball in decades. Bobby Cox will no longer be in the Atlanta dugout, but the Braves front office added offensive punch attempting to catch the Phillies.

Florida is blending fresh young players into the starting lineup and new bullpen arms could make a good group of quality starters even better. The New York Mets made a deal with the devil (Bernie Madoff) which could cost them on and off the field. Intriguing Washington off-season acquisitions cooked up the “hot stove” league talk, but with no Steve Strasburg in sight for 2011, Beltway baseball will feature more losing.

Atlanta Braves

Last season record: 91-71
Projected season win total: 88
Odds to win: +458

Biggest losses: Bobby Cox, OF Melky Cabrera
Biggest additions: 2B Dan Uggla, RHR Scott Linebrink

Braves Outlook: New manager Fredi Gonzalez would like to be baseball’s version of Aaron Rodgers in succeeding Brett Favre. Gonzalez could have a tall order after Atlanta engineered 91 victories and a playoff appearance last season. The Braves led the majors in final at-bat wins with 25.

The Tomahawks have a nice combination of youth and experience in the everyday lineup with young fellas like RF Jason Heyward and presumably 20-year old Freddie Freeman at first base. Catcher Brian McCann, CF Nate McLouth and 2B Dan Uggla should all be in their prime, while Chipper Jones and SS Alex Gonzalez try to contribute in down side of their careers. Uggla was brought in to beef up the offense, yet his iron-glove defense is a negative.

Tim Hudson and Derek Lowe bring a wealth of pitching experience and knowledge to the mound each time out, but how much longer can they be top of the rotation hurlers? Jair Jurrjens is an obvious talent, but can he stay healthy? Tommy Hanson seems to fight himself as much as the opposition.

Season win total pick: Under 88.5


Florida Marlins

Last season record: 80-82
Projected season win total: 82
Odds to win: +1204

Biggest loss: 2B Dan Uggla
Biggest additions: C John Buck, LHR Randy Choate

Marlins Outlook: It’s the final season in cavernous Sun Life Stadium for the Marlins and this is an organization that builds and rebuilds like no other. Last season outfielders Mike Stanton and Logan Morrison were excellent additions to Florida’s local nine. First sacker Gaby Sanchez had a productive year with the bat, in spite of what scouts consider a “slow bat”. The centerpiece of the franchise is Hanley Ramirez who - by his own manager’s account - is expecting an MVP level campaign to make-up for Uggla’s departure. A top five NL run producing offense could make Fish a playoff team.

The Florida starting staff should give them a chance for a victory nearly every day. Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez, Chris Volstad and newly added Javier Vazquez have to be more aggressive in throwing strikes, and avoid repeating last season’s 12th rank in walks allowed. The bullpen as a whole looks deeper and could become an asset.

Season win total pick: Over 81.5


New York Mets

Last season record: 79-83
Projected season win total: 77.5
Odds to win: +2111

Biggest losses: RHP John Maine, Fernando Tatis
Biggest additions: RHR D.J. Carrasco, C Ronny Paulino

Mets Outlook: In a media market always thirsting for headlines, the New York Mets are already off to a tremendous start with their reported financial woes. Sandy Alderson left the commissioner’s office to be the new GM and has a number of decisions to make both this year and in the near future.

David Wright and Ike Davis have the Mets set at the corners, however the middle infield is worrisome. Though only 27, Jose Reyes continues to make annual trips to the disabled list and his game-focus wanes with each passing season. The second base position is up for grabs.

The Metropolitans were 13th in the NL in runs scored at 4.04 runs per game and the outfield played a monstrous part in these failures. New York fans are sick of Carlos Beltran and he’ll be 34 in April, playing with bad wheels. Jason Bay batted .219 after the first inning in 2010, but at least CF Angel Pagan is a keeper.

The Mets pitching staff does not have the skill to carry a weaker hitting team with or without Johan Santana and a new and improved (personality-wise) Frankie Rodriguez.

Season win total pick: Under 77


Philadelphia Phillies

Last season record: 97-65
Projected season win total: 97
Odds to win: -349

Biggest losses: OF Jayson Werth, LHP Jamie Moyer
Biggest addition: LHP Cliff Lee

Phillies Outlook: The Philadelphia Phillies acquired Roy Oswalt on July 29th last season and the record of the starting pitchers was 31-14 from that point forward, adding Cliff Lee to the mix this year. If you can assume the four aces of the staff won’t have debilitating ailments, this would mean in every three-game series the Phillies play, they will send to the slab a minimum of two studs and most of the time three , when you include Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels. No wonder skipper Charlie Manuel is smiling so much these days.

Credit GM Ruben Amaro for having the foresight to realize he can still be a World Series contender, going more with pitching than hitting. With the exception of right field, every other position player is 30 years old or more and the likelihood of more than two of them surpassing previous career numbers is remote.

Shortstop Jimmy Rollins cannot hit .218 again against right-handed pitchers and if he can approach past levels, there is more than enough power for the Phils to be in the top three of National League in runs scored.

Season win total pick: Over 97


Washington Nationals

Last season record: 69-93
Projected season win total: 71
Odds to win: +4147

Biggest losses: 1B Adam Dunn, RHR Miguel Batista
Biggest additions: OF Jayson Werth, OF Rick Ankiel

Nationals Outlook: Being a Washington fan is not fun unless you have thick skin to take the ridicule. It’s the proverbial “shooting fish in a barrel” figuring out what is wrong the Nationals, instead let’s determine what might go right for Washington this campaign.

Ryan Zimmerman and free agent Jayson Werth should make a tough tandem in the middle of the batting order and the former Phillie will add defense and a winning attitude. Middle infielders Ian Desmond (SS) and Danny Espinosa (2B) showed potential last year and are being groomed to help the Nats in the middle of the diamond.

Washington will miss Strasburg, but the return of Jordan Zimmerman would be a big plus to the rotation and give D.C. fans something to dream about. Livan Hernandez, John Lannan and Jason Marquis are serviceable starters. The bullpen features Tyler Clippard, who had the second-most K’s of any reliever in baseball and left-hand batters hit just .151 vs. lefty Doug Slaten. If the Nationals are to show improvement, they cannot lead the majors in errors for a third straight season.

Season win total pick: Under 71