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**StarDust Bum** · 03-30-2011, 11:15 PM

NBA Betting Preview: LA Lakers host Mavericks

Time probably is going to run out before the Los Angeles Lakers catch San Antonio for best record in the Western Conference.

But make no mistake that the two-time defending world champion Lakers are coming on strong.

The Lakers have won 15 of 16 games since the All-Star break, just the fifth team since 1951 to achieve that distinction. The hot steak has boosted Los Angeles into owning the second-best record in the West, one game better than Dallas at 53-20. The Mavericks are 52-21.

The Lakers host Dallas Thursday night at 7:35 PT with live coverage on TNT.

Miami is the only team to defeat the Lakers during the last five weeks. Los Angeles went into the all-star weekend having lost three in a row, including road defeats to Cleveland and Charlotte.

Los Angeles trails San Antonio by four games in the race for home-court advantage throughout the Western Conference playoffs. The Lakers have nine games left.

Dallas is the best road team in the NBA at 26-10. The Mavericks have covered in 11 of their last 16 away contests going into their Wednesday matchup at the Los Angeles Clippers.

The Mavericks will be playing their fourth road game in six days when they meet the Lakers, although it will be their second night in a row at Staples Center. That’s because the Lakers and Clippers play their home games at Staples Center.

The Lakers, on the other hand, have been idle since this past Sunday when they defeated New Orleans, 102-84, as nine-point home favorites. The combined 186 points just dipped ‘under’ the 188 ½-point total.

Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol had big games for the Lakers. Bryant scored 30 points while Gasol had 23 points and pulled down 16 rebounds.

It was the Lakers’ seventh victory in their past eight games. Pointspread-wise, though, the Lakers are just 3-5 ATS during this span.

The Lakers also are a money-blowing 14-22 (38 percent) ATS in their home games this season. Dallas is 23-13 (63 percent) ATS on the road.

Dallas has two more away games following this matchup as it concludes a season-high six-game road trip. The Mavericks are at Golden State on Saturday followed by a Sunday game at Portland.

The Mavericks and Lakers have split two games this season. Dallas captured the first meeting on Jan. 19, winning 109-100 as a three-point home ‘dog. The combined 209 points sailed ‘over’ the 188 ½-point total.

Dallas won despite a sub-par 14 points from Dirk Nowitzki, the 10th-leading scorer in the league at 23.2 points per game.

The Lakers gained revenge, 96-91, on March 12 as one-point road favorites. The combined 187 points went ‘under’ the 194-point total.

Center Andrew Bynum stepped up for the Lakers in that matchup with 22 points and 15 rebounds. Gasol had 18 points.

But Bryant, who ranks sixth in scoring in the NBA averaging 25.2 points a game, finished with just 14 points on six-of-20 shooting from the floor and missed some of the game after suffering a sprained ankle. His ankle still may not be 100 percent since then.

The Lakers have defeated the Mavericks five of the past six times they’ve hosted them.

Los Angeles travels to Salt Lake City to face Utah on Friday. The Lakers then return to Staples Center to host Denver on Sunday and the Jazz on Tuesday.

The ‘over’ has cashed in 11 of Dallas’ last 16 road matchups. The Mavericks had played five consecutive ‘unders,’ though, through this past Tuesday.

The ‘under’ has cashed in nine of the Lakers’ last 13 games.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-30-2011, 11:16 PM

NBA Odds: Celtics, Spurs in struggling matchup

Boston has won and covered each of its last four trips to San Antonio.
The Boston Celtics and San Antonio Spurs are both struggling heading into Thursday’s tussle in Texas. The Celtics problems are mostly due to poor play, while it’s injuries for the Spurs.

TNT will have the 5 p.m. (PT) tip from the AT&T Center. It will also broadcast the only other Thursday night game, Dallas at the L.A. Lakers in a great one.

The Celtics (51-22 straight-up, 33-38-2 against the spread) are a team in disarray, going 1-3 SU (0-4 ATS) in their last four games. They’re just 5-7 SU (4-8 ATS) in their last 12 overall.

The last contest was Monday night in Indiana, a 107-100 loss as 1 ½-point favorites. Rajon Rondo (finger) returned from missing one game to score 22 points, but Boston got dominated down low by Roy Hibbert (26 points) as Kevin Garnett and Nenad Krstic were both in foul trouble.

The 207 combined points scored went way ‘over’ the 186-point total. The ‘under’ was 10-0 in the Celtics’ previous 10 games, allowing a measly 83.2 PPG. Team defense ranks first in the NBA this year (90.9 PPG).

The problem with Boston lately is offense. It didn’t reach 100 points in the 10 games before Indiana, averaging just 85.9 PPG.

Coach Doc Rivers saw his veteran team struggle down the stretch last year (3-7 SU and ATS in its last 10 games) before making a miraculous run to the NBA Finals. Boston fans hope the same thing happens this year, but it won’t be easy.

Krstic started strong after the unpopular trade that brought him and Jeff Green for center Kendrick Perkins. Krstic is averaging just 7.1 PPG the last 10 and Rivers still doesn’t know who his starting playoff pivot will be with Shaquille and Jermaine O’Neal both on extended injury absences. Jermaine (knee) could return Thursday, but is doubtful.

The Celtics need wins as they trail Chicago by just two games for the Eastern Conference lead. They’re also just a half-game ahead of Miami for the second seed and that could determine home court advantage in the second round.

Rivers also has to worry about keeping the minutes down for aging veterans Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen. The bench has three solid players with Green, Glen Davis and Delonte West, but Green is still adjusting to being a backup, while West is still getting acclimated after missing three months.

The Spurs (57-17 SU, 41-31-2 ATS) have lost four straight (2-2 ATS) and their lead for top-seed in the Western Conference is down to 3.5 games over the L.A. Lakers. The Lakers have won seven straight and could still catch them, an unthinkable situation just a week ago.

San Antonio’s problems can be blamed mostly on injuries. The losing streak started when Tim Duncan (ankle) went out, while Tony Parker (knee), Manu Ginobili (quad) and Antonio McDyess (back) all missed last game on Monday, a 100-92 home loss to Portland as three-point favorites.

The Portland contest went ‘over’ the 187 ½-point total. The ‘over’ is 4-0 since Duncan went out, including road losses at Denver (115-112), Portland (98-96) and Memphis (111-104).

The latest prognosis for Thursday has Duncan out, Ginobili doubtful, Parker questionable and McDyess probable. That basically runs the gamut of all injury designations.

Ginobili (17.8 PPG), Parker (17.5 PPG) and Duncan (13.3 PPG) are the Spurs’ three leading scorers, but this is one of the NBA’s deepest teams with 12 guys capable of contributing.

McDyess should start next to Tiago Splitter up front, while guard George Hill (11.5 PPG) will be counted on for big minutes even if Parker plays. Hill has scored 57 combined points the last two games and is the player most capable of offensive explosions.

These teams met in Boston on Jan. 5, with the Celtics winning 105-103 as 2 ½-point favorites. Both teams were off to red-hot starts and Boston was favored despite Garnett being out. Ray Allen had 31 points for the victors and Davis added 23.

Boston is 4-0 SU and ATS in San Antonio the last four years (the ‘under’ going 3-1). The road team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.

Both teams have tough ‘back-to-backs’ on Friday. Boston is at Atlanta, while San Antonio is at Houston.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-30-2011, 11:17 PM

Dallas Stars visit Sharks in NHL betting battle

The road team has won all four of the Sharks, Stars games this season.
If you're an NHL betting fan on the West Coast, you've enjoyed some amazing hockey this season. Even now, going into the last two weeks of the regular season, all five teams in the Pacific Division can still mathematically end up with 100 points in the standings when the season is said and done with.

It's such a talented and competitive division, it wouldn't surprise surprise anyone if the last-place Dallas Stars went on the road and beat the NHL odds against the division-leading San Jose Sharks. The puck drops at San Jose's HP Pavilion at 7:30 (PT) Thursday night.

Right now, 10 points are separating worst and first, and Dallas has an extra game to play. Heading into play on Wednesday, the Stars are three points outside of the playoff picture, but there is still plenty of time to make that distance up.

San Jose can clinch a postseason bid with a win in regulation, but it still has plenty of work to do. The Sharks only have a two-point cushion on the Phoenix Coyotes for the Pacific Division lead, and they are just one point back of the Detroit Red Wings for the No. 2 seed in the conference.

We tend to forget that this San Jose team has been really, really good in the regular season for the last several years. Even though Evgeni Nabakov and a few pieces to the puzzle are gone, the All-Canadian line of Patrick Marleau, Joe Thornton and Dany Heatley is still together. These three all have at least 59 points this season, and there aren't many lines in hockey that can say that.

There are even fewer teams that can boast having seven players that have lit the lamp at least 18 times like San Jose has. The Sharks are tied for ninth in the league with 2.9 goals per game.

We also tend to forget that Antti Niemi did win the Stanley Cup last season. Niemi came over from the Chicago Blackhawks in the offseason, and though we know that he probably doesn't have the same skill level as Nabakov, he's still pretty darn good.

Niemi finally separated himself as the one and only goaltender for San Jose in the second half of the season, and his numbers are improving game by game. Niemi is 31-17-6 this year with a 2.46 GAA and a .917 save percentage.

The noose is really tightening around the necks of the Stars right now. They have lost four in a row and six out of seven, though they do have three OT losses that were good for one point in there.

Brad Richards, who has scored 25 goals this season, hasn't lit the lamp since March 13 and only has assists in two games since that point. Loui Eriksson, his running mate atop the team chart in points for the year, has just one goal since March 5.

Instead, it is now veteran Brendan Morrow that has scored the most goals on the team with 28, and he is just four short of his career high.

Road teams have dominated the NHL lines in this series, winning four straight this season. Three of the last five meetings have gone to overtime, and the 6-3 win for the Sharks in "Big D" earlier this month was the first time all season long that a game between these sides wasn't separated by just one goal.

Dallas is just 4-10 in its last 14 road games, while the Sharks are 23-8 in their last 31 games overall.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-30-2011, 11:18 PM

MLB Betting Preview: LA Dodgers host SF Giants

The Giants won 10 of the 18 meetings against the Dodgers in 2010.
Opening Day, a rivalry that has traveled from one coast to the other and a mound matchup between two of the game's brightest young pitchers. The weather is even going to cooperate. What more could you ask for?

The San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers renew a rivalry that started in New York more than a century ago when the two NL West squads cap Opening Day at Chavez Ravine in an ESPN telecast (5:00 p.m. PT). San Francisco will send ace right-hander Tim Lincecum to the hill to begin its defense of the 2010 World Series title. He'll be opposed by Los Angeles lefty Clayton Kershaw.

San Francisco faded from the spotlight during the winter after beating Texas in the 2010 Series. Much of the news entering the 2011 season has centered around Philadelphia's starting rotation and the roster improvements made by Boston. The Phils and Red Sox are the paper champions heading into this season as favorites in their respective leagues.

The lack of offseason attention is probably fine with Giants manager Bruce Bochy. His club is fifth on the World Series odds list at 10/1, trailing Philadelphia (plus 220), Boston (plus 320), the Yankees (plus 530) and Rangers (plus 625). San Francisco is a plus 475 choice to win the Senior Circuit behind the Phils at plus 175, and even money to defend its NL West title, just ahead of Colorado (plus 115).

Lincecum was last seen on a major league mound in the fifth and final game of the Fall Classic. San Francisco won four of his five postseason starts and 21 of his 33 regular season assignments.

Three of Lincecum's 2010 starts came against the Dodgers with the Giants winning each time. This will be his 10th career start versus LA; San Francisco is 7-2 in the previous nine and has won six of the last seven.

The Dodgers, picked third in the NL West at plus 390, won back-to-back division titles in 2008-09 and reached the NLCS both seasons only to fall in five games both times to the Phillies. Los Angeles slumped to fourth in 2010 with an 80-82 record in manager Joe Torre's final season at the helm. Don Mattingly, who coached under Torre with the Yankees and Dodgers, will be managing his first official MLB game after being named Torre's replacement.

Kershaw made four trips to the mound versus the Giants in 2010 with Los Angeles winning twice. The Dodgers were 1-1 in his two home starts, and would've been 2-0 in those games except for a bullpen meltdown in one affair.

That meltdown coincidentally came in the only career head-to-head meeting between Kershaw and Lincecum on July 20. Los Angeles built a 5-1 lead against Lincecum who didn't make it out of the fifth having allowed all five runs. Kershaw left after six innings with the Dodgers up 5-4, two of the San Fran runs made possible by left-fielder Xavier Paul's error. Closer Jonathan Broxton's wildness in the top of the ninth did the rest of the damage in a 7-5 Giants win.

Kershaw and the Dodgers closed as minus 117 chalk in that loss.

San Francisco won 10 of the 18 meetings between the two clubs in 2010, going 5-4 at home and in Los Angeles.

Each club is coming out of spring training with some injury concerns, most notably Giants closer Brian Wilson who is nursing an oblique strain. Lefty Jeremy Affeldt and righty Sergio Romo are the most likely candidates to work the ninth inning for San Francisco while Wilson is out.

Los Angeles will be missing third baseman Casey Blake (back injury). Juan Uribe, a big part of San Fran's 2010 success, will be at third in Blake's place with Jamey Carroll playing second base, Uribe's position once Blake returns.

Weather forecasters are calling for an afternoon high in the low-to-mid 80s, that number likely to be reached just before first pitch. There's little to no chance of rain with a slight breeze from the north (in from center).

The four-game set continues Friday evening followed by an afternoon game on Saturday and another twilight affair to end it when ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball cameras will be on hand. The Giants are expected to send Jonathan Sanchez, Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner to the hill for those contests. Mattingly and the Dodgers will counter with Chad Billingsley, Ted Lilly and Hiroki Kuroda.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-30-2011, 11:19 PM

MLB odds: Yankees, Tigers open 2011 campaign

The Yanks are 27-10 in their last 37 home games against the Tigers.
Two of the best pitchers in the American League will be on display Thursday at Yankee Stadium when the 2011 baseball campaign begins with a contest between the Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees. The matchup will be the first game of an ESPN Opening Day tripleheader starting at 10 a.m. (PT).

Most offshore sports books monitored by the Don Best Sports odds product have opened New York, with CC Sabathia on the mound, as a 145 home favorite against Justin Verlander and the Tigers. The total opened at 8 ‘under’ (minus 115).

Though the exhibition season doesn’t historically mean much when the regular campaign rolls around, it is interesting to note that the Tigers and Yanks met Tuesday in the last preseason game for both teams.

Both clubs played their regular’s for the first seven innings, with the Yanks registering a 2-1 victory as 140 home favorites.

That low-scoring affair could be a precursor to Thursday afternoon’s opener when Sabathia and Verlander hook up in what should be quite a pitching duel.

Sabathia, who has led the American League in wins the past two seasons, was 21-7 last year with a stellar 3.18 ERA. The 6-foot-7 southpaw fanned 197 batters and walked 74 in 237 2/3 innings.

Verlander, who had a marvelous exhibition season with a 0.67 ERA in four starts, was 18-9 with a 3.37 ERA during the 2010 campaign. The 28-year-old hard-throwing right-hander also registered 219 strikeouts and walked 71 in 224 1/3 innings.

These two hurlers met once last season (Aug. 17), with the Yankees recording a 6-2 victory as 175 home favorites. Though the combined eight runs barely skipped ‘over’ the 7 ½-run closing total, the ‘under’ is 8-3 in the last 11 series meetings between the Yanks and Tigers.

The win lifted the Yankees to a 27-10 ledger in the last 37 matchups against Detroit at Yankee Stadium. That includes taking three of the four home meetings last season and outscoring the Tigers 27-15 in the process.

Sabathia tossed seven innings in that Aug. 17 game against the Tigers and allowed two runs on seven hits while fanning nine and walking two. The two runs allowed were courtesy of solo homers by Austin Jackson and Brandon Inge.

Verlander was tagged for three runs on five hits, but lasted just five innings. He walked five and fanned five and allowed home runs to Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson.

Verlander may not have to worry about Granderson in Thursday’s opener. The former Tigers centerfielder is listed as “questionable” with a right oblique injury.

New York ranked 15th in the major’s with a 4.06 ERA and 21st with just 83 quality starts. The defense was a strong suit, as the club committed an American League-low 69 errors.

Offense shouldn’t be too much of a problem for the Yanks. After all, they ranked first in that category last season by averaging 5.27 runs per game. New York ranked fifth with a .267 batting average and third in home runs (201).

Joe Girardi’s Yanks were 52-29 at home, 64-40 versus right-handed starters, 20-19 in one-run games and 7-7 in extra-inning affairs last season.

Detroit failed to adequately protect Miguel Cabrera in its lineup last season. However, the club addressed that problem by signing Victor Martinez as a free agent. The switch-hitting catcher hit .302 in 127 games with the Red Sox last season and added 20 homers and 79 RBI.

Ironically, Martinez was Sabathia’s catcher when they both toiled for the Cleveland Indians a few years ago.

Jim Leyland’s Tigers must improve on their dismal 29-52 road ledger if they are to be taken seriously in the AL Central. The club was 26-21 against southpaw starting hurlers, 16-26 in one-run games and 7-8 in extra innings.

The early weather forecast for Yankee Stadium calls for mostly cloudy skies and a 60 percent chance of showers. The wind will be out to right field between 12 and 17 MPH. The game-time temperature will be around 40 degrees.

This three-game series will continue Saturday afternoon with New York’s A.J. Burnett scheduled to face Detroit’s Brad Penny.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-30-2011, 11:23 PM

Season Best Bets

March 28, 2011

Baseball starts this week and it is an appropriate time to make some predictions for the upcoming season. Last year, there were some big surprises with the Giants and Rangers making the World Series. Both were expected to be good teams, but few saw that type of run coming. Which teams are capable of making a move in 2011? Here is a quick review of both leagues and our best bet for team 'over/under' wins in each division.

NL EAST

The Phillies enter the season with an incredible starting rotation coming off a disappointing exit to the postseason last year and this will be the overwhelming favorite to not only win the NL East and the NL, but the World Series. The pitching staff has a lot of miles on it, however so injuries could be a factor this season and there are big questions in the bullpen as well as with an aging offense. Atlanta appears to be the only team that can realistically make a run at this division title if veteran starters Derek Lowe and Tim Hudson can be healthy and effective and there is a lot of young talent in the lineup. Atlanta lacks a proven closer, but overall the bullpen looks like it is good shape to start the first year of the post Bobby Cox era. Florida should again be a competitive team and the Marlins rotation has a high ceiling with the addition of Javier Vazquez, but on offense there is not as much potential as the other teams in this division. The Mets have very little stability in the rotation but in a favorable ballpark the starting pitching may be better than most expect, even if Johan Santana is shelved for much of the season. The Mets have a few big names on offense, but not enough potential for consistent production. Washington made a bit of a splash in the off season with a couple of additions, but in the health and development of young pitching will make or break or the season. Washington will be competitive and could have its most wins since 2007.

BEST BET - PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES UNDER 96.5: The offense is going to have issues with Chase Utley and Domonic Brown already fighting injuries plus the age of Jimmy Rollins and Raul Ibanez is a legitimate concern. The bullpen will likely blow some leads and betting against the extreme is where the value is as Philadelphia's rotation likely runs into more problems than most expect this season, even though this team should win the NL East.

NL CENTRAL

Many saw the Reds as one-year fluke last season, winning the division in a down year for the NL Central. Cincinnati's young offense should again be productive even if Joey Votto does not have a repeat MVP season and the pitching staff for the Reds is more than capable. The Reds will have a full season with Edinson Volquez and among Mike Leake, Travis Wood, and Homer Bailey the Reds should find capable #4 & #5 starters. Milwaukee made a lot of noise in the offseason, but Zack Greinke will start the year on the DL and banking on Chris Narveson and an often-injured Shaun Marcum could leave this rotation a bit thin. The bullpen had major issues early last year before coming together behind John Axford and the Brewers will face a lot of pressure with the organization putting some money out for a winner. If things do not go well early, don't be surprised if the Brewers ship off some key pieces. St. Louis is still a threat in this division even with Adam Wainwright's major injury. The Cardinals always seem to find a pitcher to step up as Jaime Garcia did last season. Lance Berkman adds a bat in the lineup, but whether he can play everyday in the outfield is a concern. The Cubs added Matt Garza to the rotation, but the lineup has a less than viable mix of underperforming veterans and unproven young players. Houston could be a bit of a surprise with a better rotation than most people expect. This team will struggle on offense, but there is a lot of speed and some upside. The Pirates actually will have an offense that can compete in this division with Pedro Alvarez and Neil Walker likely headed for breakout years. Pitching will again be the downfall and there will be a lot of pressure on a young staff in an offense-oriented ballpark.

BEST BET - CINCINNATI REDS OVER 85.5: The Reds pitching staff is coming under some scrutiny and in that ballpark it will be tough to have lights out numbers, but it was an effective staff last season that has enough potential to improve. This looks like the most complete offense in the division and the Reds were one of only four teams in the NL with a winning road record last season despite being considered a team that is built on success at home.

NL WEST

The NL West was very competitive last season with the top four teams all winning at least 80 games. Pitching is paramount in this division and the Giants and Padres should again lead the way with the best starting staffs. San Francisco lost a few key pieces on offense and there was a lot of mileage on this young rotation last season which could come into play this season. The Dodgers may be a surprise team this season as Los Angeles has an underrated pitching staff and the offense has enough talent with a few key additions to be perhaps the best in this division even after a down 2010. Colorado got a career year from Ubaldo Jimenez last season, but the Rockies faded late in the season and there may not be enough depth on the staff to last a whole season. The Rockies have a good lineup, but Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki may have trouble matching great 2010 seasons. San Diego was a great story last season, but the offense without Adrian Gonzalez will take a step back. The Padres signed a lot veteran players cast aside by other clubs and unfortunately there may be good reason that those players were not retained. Arizona looks very young both on the pitching staff and the lineup. It won't take a lot for the Diamondbacks to improve on the past two seasons, but in this tough division it will be tough to make a big move with a four quality teams in the division and the least experienced pitching staff.

BEST BET - COLORADO ROCKIES UNDER 86.5: The Rockies were a better team that the record indicated last season as they lost the final eight games of the season on a horrible late season slide. Overall, the rotation will not likely be able to compete in this division. Jimenez had a huge workload last season to deliver a career year and the contributions from Jhoulys Chacin and Jason Hammel may be difficult to replicate. There is not much to fall back on if there is an injury on the starting staff.

AL EAST

Boston made the biggest moves in the offseason with the additions of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez and if healthy this could be the best offense in the game. The Red Sox were rarely healthy last season and even if the offense delivers, the starting rotation is banking on the health of three high-mileage veterans that have battled recent injures and a closer that has had many ups and downs. Don't discount the impact of a new catcher as well with Jarrod Saltalamacchia moving in, a highly-touted prospect that has not really panned out and has been considered a defensive liability. It was a rather quiet winter in New York minus the Derek Jeter signing saga. The offense is another year older and bigger name additions of Andruw Jones and Russell Martin are not likely to be big impact moves. The Yankees were not able to upgrade their pitching staff and could pay the price in this division of great offenses. The Rays are projected for a move back to the middle of this division, but the rotation should be excellent and the offense can still compete. Most seem to believe that Toronto overachieved last season, but there is a lot of power in the lineup and while the rotation is very young there is talent and a solid bullpen has been pieced together. Baltimore is an intriguing team after the instant improvement the club made with Buck Showalter. The Orioles made several moves to upgrade the offense, but ultimately is putting a lot faith in a few veteran players that had disappointing 2010 seasons. The pitching staff will get beat up in this division and while improvement is likely there is a lot of ground to make up.

BEST BET - TAMPA BAY RAYS OVER 84.5: Don't sleep on the Rays with this number projecting a 12-win decline from last season with the team that had the best record in the AL. A few big names are gone, but the offensive numbers are not likely to drop significantly and this should be the best starting rotation in this division. There has been significant turnover in the bullpen, but Tampa Bay has done a very good job at developing young relievers and finding gems on the free agent market.

AL CENTRAL

The Twins saw another familiar exit from playoffs last season, but with a 94-68 record, Minnesota was very successful despite battling a lot of injuries and having a 'down' year from Joe Mauer. Minnesota has depth in its starting rotation despite lacking a true ace, but the bullpen let several key pieces depart in the offseason. Chicago could a have a scary rotation if Jake Peavy ever returns to form, but that appears less and less likely. The White Sox also have bullpen questions but this is a formidable lineup that added Adam Dunn as a serious threat at DH. Detroit has been competitive the last two years, but has not made up enough ground in this division. Detroit's pitching has some upside potential, but Brad Penny and Phil Coke will be experiments. Victor Martinez is a dangerous bat back in the AL Central and the Tigers have some stability in the bullpen that few teams have. Cleveland has plenty of young talent, but the Indians were one of the most disappointing teams in the league last year, failing to compete from the get-go. The pitching staff is short on experience especially in the rotation, but if a few young arms develop this team may be respectable. The Royals are in familiar territory of having let go of a star player and starting fresh with youth and less than desirable veterans, many of which are coming off major injuries. There were a few bright spots for the Royals last season and this is a team with a decent shot to improve and a have a season more reminiscent of the 2008 season. However the Royals are always a threat to ship away its productive pieces mid-season.

BEST BET - DETROIT TIGERS UNDER 83.5: The Tigers nearly won the division in 2009 and were much more competitive than most expected last season but outside of Justin Verlander the pitching staff is filled with question marks. Max Scherzer pitched great in stretches last season, but Rick Porcello took a big step back. Several relievers return, but the bullpen lacks a proven closer and early spring distractions have not helped the cause.

AL WEST

Texas should continue to have very good pitching this season even without Cliff Lee as there are many quality starting options and a wildcard with Brandon Webb possibly taking the mound. The bullpen was a strong point for the Rangers last season and this lineup will still be far and away the best in the division. Adrian Beltre is a nice addition to boost the team on offense and defense and Mike Napoli provides some punch behind the plate. Oakland could have a very strong rotation with Trevor Cahill coming off a great season and a healthy Brett Anderson available. The A's made a few upgrades on offense so this is a sleeper team in the AL as the Rangers are certainly not a lock to repeat in the West. The Angels look to bounce back from a tough 2010 season after a great run of success, but the pitching is not as good as it might look on paper and injuries have already been mounting this spring. This is an offense that could really struggle to compete even with a few big names in the lineup. Seattle added a few bats to the lineup after a disastrous 2010 season and a new era for the Mariners begins. This team has no where to go but up and the pitching on this team has a lot of potential. Felix Hernandez won the Cy Young last year, but with a little more support he could carry this team and the young rotation actually started to show progress last season despite the record. Erik Bedard is also a threat to emerge at some point.

BEST BET - SEATTLE MARINERS OVER 69.5: The Mariners were horrible last season but injuries and foolish personnel moves played a big role in a poor start to the season that just snowballed. Eric Wedge is a good manager that should get more out of this team and the young rotation should find more success in a division that lacks a lot of big bats.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-30-2011, 11:25 PM

AL Future Looks

March 29, 2011

Believe it or not, baseball season is almost upon us, so it’s time for what has become one of our favorite editorial assignments of the year. Following are preferred "futures" predictions for the 2011 MLB season; season win numbers in parentheses ( ). First up will be the American League; we’ll add the National League to the mix later this week.
AL EAST

Best recommendation...Can it really be thirteen years since the Baltimore Orioles (76½) cracked the .500 barrier? No wonder the locals reacted as if Brooks Robinson, Boog Powell, Paul Blair, and Jim Palmer reappeared on the scene after a mild resurgence late last summer when Buck Showalter took over in the dugout for Dave Trembley. But nothing in Showalter’s managerial career suggests he is a savior, and a closer look at what he has at his disposal should temper the enthusiasm. Despite bragging about their young pitching, the O’s cannot count on much beyond Brian Matusz; Jake Arrieta has only a handful of starts under his belt, and his September performance means little until he goes around the league a second time, while Brian Bergesen had been getting cuffed around pretty good in Sarasota this spring before taking a liner off his arm last Friday. And a career journeyman (Jeremy Guthrie) remains the staff ace. Prospects seem a bit better at the plate, although offseason additions such as DH Vlady Guerrero and 1B Derrek Lee are on the downsides of their careers, while the presence of newly-added human wind-machine 3B Mark Reynolds (ex-Arizona) means that Baltimore is a threat to challenge Tampa Bay’s strikeout record set last year. The lineup could also use a healthy season from catalyst 2B Brian Roberts, but after playing in only 59 games a year ago, he’s been hurting again this spring. There might be some wide-eyed 12-year-old fans in Towson excited at the O’s prospects, but we’re looking "under" again at Camden Yards.

Others to watch...Should the Boston Red Sox (95½) be making World Series reservations? Maybe so, because this is now arguably the most-talented roster in the majors after OF Carl Crawford and 1B Adrian Gonzalez were added in the offseason. Crawford, along with 2B Dustin Pedroia (back at 100% after last year’s foot surgery) and CF Jacoby Ellsbury, potentially gives the Bosox a combined 150 steals if skipper Terry Francona so chooses. Moreover, all own outstanding gloves, and Gonzalez’ addition to a lineup that already includes the very-patient Kevin Youkilis (now moved to 3B) means that Francona now has a couple of deluxe walk machines who complement their freer-swinging mates. Boston is also so well-stocked in the position areas that it can concentrate the SS (Marco Scutaro) and C (vet Jason Varitek and young Jared Saltalamacchia) positions for defense. Meanwhile, the pitching staff is so deep that former ace Josh Beckett can be used as the fourth starter in the rotation as he readjusts his mechanics after a career-worst 2010. Moreover, the addition of longtime White Sox closer Bobby Jenks adds another arm to a dominant bullpen that already had Daniel Bard and Jonathan Papelbon as a lethal late-inning combination. A drama and injury-free spring at Fort Myers indicates the Bosox are ready to go, and since this looks like the best bet of all MLB teams to get to 100 wins, we’re looking "over" at Fenway Park.

A lot of people might not realize that the Toronto Blue Jays (76½) won 85 games last season, which should have qualified Cito Gaston for more Manager of the Year votes than he received. Or that the Jays led the bigs with 257 homers a year ago. Gaston has since retired, replaced by longtime Red Sox pitching coach John Farrell, and there were more personnel losses than additions in the offseason, but we’re not convinced Toronto is due for a big drop-off. Despite Vernon Wells’ trade to the Angels, plenty of pop remains in the lineup with 3B Jose Bautista (MLB-best 54 HRs in 2010!), 1B Adam Lind, 2B Aaron Hill (recently back in action this spring at Dunedin after a quadriceps injury), and DH Edwin Encarnacion all legit long-ball threats, while raw speed was added when acquiring CF Rajai Davis, who swiped 50 bases for the A’s last season. Meanwhile, vet C Jose Molina will provide a nice stop-gap until ballyhooed J.P. Arencibia is ready to take over the job behind the plate on a full-time basis. Admittedly, there are some concerns with a young staff that dealt ace Shaun Marcum to the Brewers, but Ricky Romero, Brett Cecil, and Jesse Litsch all have proven live arms, and young Kyle Drabek, the prize of the Roy Halladay deal with the Phils, has finally arrived. As long as Farrell can mix-and-match with a rebuilt bullpen that has had some injury concerns in spring with newly added Frank Francisco and Octavio Dotel both hurting (another vet addition, Jon Rauch, is likely to be a serviceable alternative as the closer for the time being), Toronto shouldn’t be roadkill. The local fans disappointed again with the Maple Leafs might not get much relief from the Jays, who haven’t made the playoffs since their last World Series in 1993, but we’re still looking "over" that modest win hurdle at Rogers Centre.

Tough to call...What’s going on with the New York Yankees (91½)? The allure of the pinstripes and the Big Apple was not enough to convince main FA target Cliff Lee to enlist (opting for Philadelphia instead...how times have changed!), and now Joe Girardi enters the season with plenty of question marks in his rotation behind CC Sabathia and perhaps young Phil Hughes. The fourth and fifth starters, in particular, were hot topics the past month in Tampa, with young Ivan Nova and the well-traveled Freddy Garcia apparently winning those jobs, but there is also concern about how well A.J. Burnett can bounce back after imploding a year ago (4-13 with a 6.48 ERA after June 1). Regardless, expect GM Brian Cashman to closely monitor the starting pitching market in the next few months. There is nothing wrong with a familiar-looking everyday lineup which saw 2B Robinson Cano emerge as a star last season; indeed, it might even improve slightly with the addition of C Russell Martin, freeing up Jorge Posada for regular DH duties. And Mariano Rivera, at age 41, is still going strong while anchoring a solid bullpen. But the rotation could thin out in a hurry after Sabathia, and the chance it could become a real mess is reason to pause. It’s a pass for us in the Bronx.

How far do the Tampa Bay Rays (84) figure to drop after beating out both the Yankees and Red Sox in the AL East for the second time in three seasons? It was pretty much one-way traffic away from The Trop during the offseason, with stars such as OF Carl Crawford (to Boston) and 1B Carlos Pena (to the Cubs) and several others leaving town, as essentially half of the AL East-winning roster has undergone a turnover. But young GM Andrew Friedman might have pulled a couple rabbits out of his hat in January when convincing vets Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez to give it a shot in St. Pete in a couple of Scott Boras-influenced FA signings, and how much skipper Joe Maddon can squeeze out of both vets (with Manny the ultimate wild card) figures to go a long in determining if the Rays can get above .500. Friedman and Maddon, however, believe the defense will be as good or better with SS Reid Brignac (taking the place of Jason Bartlett, traded to San Diego) and 1B Dan Johnson (taking the place of Pena) now everyday players, and there’s still plenty of upside with 3B Evan Longoria and OFs B.J. Upton and Matt Joyce. And with five potential "number one" starters led by David Price and James Shields, the rotation could still be the AL’s best despite dealing Matt Garza to the Cubs. Where the season could really implode, however, is in a totally rebuilt bullpen, with only long-reliever Andy Sonnanstine back from a year ago and Maddon conducting auditions the past month; hotheaded journeyman Kyle Farnsworth appears to have exited Port Charlotte as the temporary closer, hardly a comforting development. That’s enough to prevent looking "over" at The Trop; it’s a no-call for us in St. Pete instead.

AL CENTRAL

Best recommendation...We understand some of the the reservations surrounding the Minnesota Twins (85½) and their rebuilt bullpen, but keep in mind that Ron Gardenhire’s team won 94 games and the AL Central a year ago with now-healthy 1B Justin Morneau missing the last half of the season. And Minnesota’s time-tested winning formula (consistency in starting pitching and defense, the ability to move runners along, good base running, clutch hitting, and not making crucial mistakes in the field or on the basepaths) doesn’t figure to change in a few months. Granted, the reconfigured bullpen (whose prior composition was a real strength) was the focus of spring work at Ft. Myers, but with Joe Nathan (returning from successful Tommy John surgery) and Matt Capps waging a spirited duel for the closer’s role all spring, the pen might not be a liability, especially with the likelihood that former starter Kevin Slowey slides seamlessly into a set-up role. Gardenhire is also breaking in a new middle infield combo with imported SS Tsuyoshi Nishioka (the top hitter in Japan last year with a .346 BA)and 2B Alexi Casilla moving into starting roles vacated by J.J. Hardy (traded to Baltimore) and Orlando Hudson (FA San Diego) and giving the batting order three straight bursts of speed along with OF Denard Span in front of power sources Joe Mauer and Morneau. Adding these extra quicks should allow the Twins to better utilize the gaps at Target Field, which played big last season. We’re not sure Minnesota gets back to the playoffs or advances beyond the ALDS for the first time since 2002, but it’s still an "over" for us in Minneapolis.

Others to watch...They’re adopting the slogan "All In" on the south side for the Chicago White Sox (85), but it could just as easily be "All Out" as well. That’s because, with a record payroll in the neighborhood of $125 million, it’s now or never for the Chisox, whose owner Jerry Reinsdorf could be tempted to disassemble the parts by mideseason if the pieces aren’t fitting together. That doesn’t figure to be a problem for the starting pitching, although projected ace Jake Peavy, off season-ending surgery last July to repair a torn lat muscle, was shut down midway through March in Arizona with shoulder tendinitis and will open the campaign on the DL. Assuming Peavy returns as expected in a few weeks, Ozzie Guillen likely has the most solid rotation in the division with John Danks, Mark Buehrle, Gavin Floyd, and Edwin Jackson also in the fold, while Cactus League sources maintain that there should be no drop-off from the departed Bobby Jenks to lefties Matt Thornton and Chris Sale as the new closers-by-committee. The everyday lineup is a bit of a crazy quilt, however, and rookie 3b Brent Morel figures to have a short leash in the starting lineup with serviceable Mark Teahen waiting in the wings. But the addition of Adam Dunn as the full-time DH should increase the power numbers (and the strikeouts) significantly and be an upgrade over Guillen’s DH platoon of a year ago, while the various athletes in the lineup (LF Juan Pierre, 2B Gordon Beckham, CF Alex Rios, and SS Alexei Ramirez) are being given the green light by Guillen to run as they please. Here’s a hint if attending a Sox game; forget the snarled traffic around the ballpark, just park downtown and ride the train instead to The Cell to watch Ozzie’s guys go "over" in 2011.

Remember the renaissance of the Cleveland Indians (71) in the ‘90s, when the Tribe became a contender and tickets to Jacobs Field were harder to come by than Cavs tickets when LeBron was still in town? Unfortunately, that’s all a distant memory these days (even The Jake has changed its name to the dreary and very corporate Progressive Field, where Cleveland ranked bottom in MLB attendance in 2010), especially the contender part as the Indians have gone the way of the Browns and this year’s Cavs into oblivion since their last playoff berth in 2007. And the depressed local fan base might simply see a continuation of the LeBron-less Cavs season with the Tribe. A couple of holdovers from the last winning era, OF Grady Sizemore & DH Travis Hafner, can’t stay healthy, with Sizemore expected to open the season on the DL as he continues to rehab from last year’s serious microfracture surgery, and Hafner dealing with shoulder issues this spring in Goodyear. Another projected starter, 3B Jason Donald, also likely opens the season in the infirmary with a broken hand, while C Carlos Santana will have to be monitored closely after last year’s season-ending knee surgery. Mind you, we’re already talking about many Cleveland injuries before spring training is complete. The prospects might not seem so bleak if CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee were still around to anchor the pitching staff, but they’re long gone, with Fausto Carmona the only link to those headier days on the shores of Lake Erie, and manager Manny Acta crossing his fingers for the likes of Justin Masterson and Carlos Carrasco and the rest of an unsettled staff at least give promising closer Chris Perez a chance to do his thing. Whether it’s the Browns, Cavs, or Tribe, it seems to be the same scenario these days in Cleveland; at least the Terminal Tower looks better than it did 40 years ago. Like everything else in town these days, look "under" with the Indians.

Word was that skipper Jim Leyland was thinking about calling it quits after last season when the Detroit Tigers (84½) missed the playoffs for the fourth straight year and couldn’t even get above .500 in the process. Leyland decided to give it one more shot in the last year of his contract but might have been having some second thoughts after a distracting spring in which 1B Miguel Cabrera was nailed with his second DUI in 18 months. Assuming smoother sailing in the upcoming weeks and months, Cabrera might figure to benefit from the FA addition of Victor Martinez, who will likely see more DH duty than at catcher and will probably provide some bonafide protection in the order behind Cabrera. What we don’t like about the lineup are the defensive liabilities, in particular corner outfielders Ryan Raburn and aging Magglio Ordonez (especially Ordonez), forcing fleet CF Austin Jackson to cover too much ground, while SS Jhonny Peralta and 1B Cabrera (who has little or no range) are under par with their gloves as well. Plus, 2B Carlos Guillen opens the season on the DL as he slowly recovers from last September’s microfracture knee surgery. The pitching staff does have a high ceiling, with Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer a potentially-dominant 1-2 combo, but GM Dave Dombrowkski gambled unnecessarily when adding injury-prone Brad Penny to the rotation, and we’ll see how ex-Yankee Phil Coke adjusts in his return to a starter’s role afer working out of the bullpen last season. Although we’re looking forward to visiting Comerica Park and a chance to wolf down a few coneys from Leo’s right behind home plate, we project an "under" in Motown as the Leyland era likely comes to an unsatisfactory conclusion.

Tough to call...We’ve been burned a few times in the past several years, expecting the Kansas City Royals (68½) to finally make a breakthrough. And this hardly seems the season for them to catch an updraft, either, not after trading away staff ace Zack Greinke and SS Yuniesky Betancourt to the Brewers for four (admittedly quality) prospects. Prospects, however, rarely deliver immediate dividends, so where is hope for any upside at Kauffman Stadium? Not to get carried away with spring developments, but KC was opening plenty of eyes in Arizona the past month, as skipper Ned Yost turned the rabbits loose on the basepaths as the Royals led all AL teams in BA and runs scored. In the process, FA signee OF Melky Cabrera was hitting over .500 in the Cactus League, former number two draftee LF Alex Gordon appeared ready for a breakout season, and 1B Kila Ka’aihue hinted that his homer numbers in the minors could translate to the Big Show as he picked up where he left off in a late-season call-up last summer. Remember, the offense wasn’t bad last year (.274 BA ranking second in the AL) and didn’t need much fixing. But the same can’t be said of a staff that had an AL-worst 4.97 ERA in 2010 and has no ace after the departure of Greinke unless the inconsistent Luke Hochevar or Kyle Davies assume the role. And what makes any projections more tricky in KC is that GM Dayton Moore could easily be tempted to move Cabrera or lights-out closer Joakim Soria by the trade deadline if he can add the sorts of prospects he covets. Thus, we’re going to stay neutral on the Royals but we will recommend the burnt ends if you happen to stop by Arthur Bryant’s BBQ, near where the old Municipal Stadium used to stand on Brooklyn Avenue.

AL WEST

Best recommendation...Who might be this year’s version of the San Francisco Giants? Look no further than across the Bay to the Oakland Athletics (84½), ready to return to the playoff mix after a few seasons of re-tooling. Remember that it wasn’t the Giants or Phillies who led the majors in ERA last season; rather, it was the A’s at 3.47, and the core of a lights-out young staff returns in tact, led by Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson, while Gio Gonzalez picked up where he left off last season after the All-Star break (2.59 ERA) by looking very sharp in Phoenix, posting an ERA under 2.00 much of the spring. And if former Oakland ace and FA signee Rich Harden recovers from a lat tear, skipper Bob Geren will have even more arms at his disposal. Continuing the theme, a deep bullpen should not skip a beat even if closer Andrew Bailey opens the season on the DL with a forearm strain, as every projected reliever has pitched in the 9th innings before, with newly-acquired Brian Fuentes (over 200 career saves) a nice stop-gap if Bailey is sidelined. Prospects are a bit more dicey at the plate, where GM Billy Beane had to resort to Plan C (Hideki Matsui) in the offseason marketplace after missing on Plan A (Lance Berkman) and Plan B (Adrian Beltre) to add some sock to an offense that ranked 2nd to last in AL homers a year ago. But Beane did make a couple of other serviceable acquisitions in OFs David DeJesus and Josh Willingham, who along with DH Matsui and holdover ex-Nevada Wolf Pack 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff should beef up the middle of he order, and the defense looks solid up the middle with C Kurt Suzukii, SS Cliff Pennington, 2B Mark Ellis, and CF Coco Crisp. And if Oakland is within striking distance at the trade deadline, the shrewd Beane can be expected to add whatever is needed for the stretch run. It should be lots of fun again at the Coliseum (don’t forget to check out the best BBQ in the big leagues down the left-field line) as the A’s go "over" and threaten for the postseason.

Others to watch...The defending AL champion Texas Rangers (86½) entered spring training with a clear objective to fill a couple of openings in their starting pitching rotation, created partly by Cliff Lee’s decision to abandon Arlington and return to Philadelphia in free agency and an inability to land offseason targets Matt Garza (who ended up with the Cubs) or Zack Greinke (now with Milwaukee). Unfortunately, that search has become an all-points bulletin exiting Surprise and now extends deeper into the rotation with No. 3 starter Tommy Hunter going down with a groin injury, forcing him onto the DL to begin the season, and Scott Feldman’s postseason microfracture knee surgery perhaps keeping him shelved into June. Any ideas of moving closer Neftali Perez into the rotation were also nixed because of the havoc it might cause in the bullpen. Thus, it’s the familiar old theme in the Metroplex, as beyond Colby Lewis and C.J. Wilson, the rotation suddenly appears full of question marks. The Rangers can still outscore anyone, and the addition of 3B Adrian Beltre (who along with Michael Young will also likely rotate into the DH spot) should compensate for Vlady Guerrero’s departure to Baltimore. But some of the questions regarding the staff make us wonder if the Rangers aren’t going to slip at least a handful of games in the standings; remember, the team only won 90 a year ago when everything fell neatly into place for manager Ron Washington, and sequels often disappoint. We’re going to look "under" in Arlington.

Check out the recent performance patterns of the wacky Seattle Mariners (70), who have been alternating between overachieving (such as the encouraging 88 wins in 2007 and 85 in 2009) or vastly underachieving (61 wins in both 2008 and a year ago) over the past four years. And frankly, last season’s pratfall wasn’t hard to predict, as GM Jack Zduriencik’s poorly constructed club entered the campaign with no power sources whatsoever and ended up a distant last in the majors in runs scored (only 513; even the woeful Pirates almost lapped the M’s by scoring 587). At least the incomparable Ichiro remains as the ultimate table-setter; perhaps the addition of DH Jack Cust (who posted some good power numbers in Oakland in recent years) will alleviate the power problem, and the prize of the Cliff Lee trade with Texas, 1B Justin Smoak, is a projected 25-30 HR producer. Chone Figgins should also be far more comfy back at his normal 3B position, although the sooner the team gets rid of the problem that is OF Milton Bradley (we foresee a blow-up with new, no-nonsense manager Eric Wedge coming soon), the better off they’ll be. The Mariners, however, should have decent pitching, especially with Felix "The Cat" Hernandez firmly established among the AL elite, and Jason Vargas and Doug Fister flashing plenty of upside in 2010, while rookie Michael Pineda and his flaming fastball could be the ultimate rotisserie sleeper. Meanwhile, closer David Aardsma (hip) should be returning soon from his stint on the DL to open the season. It won’t be quite the same in Seattle without beloved play-by-play man Dave Niehaus, who passed away suddenly in November, but a few more "Fly Aways" and "Grand Salamis" from an improved batting order should at least move the M’s closer to respectability. It’s an "over" for us at Safeco Field.

Tough to call...If there’s one thing we can absolutely guarantee about the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (83) this season, it’s that 1B Kendry Morales won’t be involved in any wild homerun celebrations after breaking his leg in one such party a year ago. Morales’ subsequent absence for the final four months of 2010 contributed to the Halos’ alarming 202 run drop-off from the previous year, and his slow recovery from the broken leg will keep him on the DL to start the season. Meanwhile, GM Tony Reagins’ attempts to upgrade the offense via free agency failed when Carl Crawford decided at the last minute to sign with Boston instead; whether ex Blue-Jay OF Vernon Wells can add sufficient spark remains to be seen, as the aging Torii Hunter and Bobby Abreu (now likely limited to DH duties) no longer appear capable of carrying the offense. Thus, for the Angels to re-emerge as a contender, Mike Scioscia is probably going to have to lean on his pitching staff, but there is little depth in the rotation beyond starters Jered Weaver, Ervin Santana, and Dan Haren, and the bullpen could remain a problem area if Fernando Rodney can’t handle closer duties better than he did after Brian Fuentes was traded last August, especially with the set-up corps relying upon young arms Kevin Jepsen and Jordan Walden as a bridge to Rodney after offseason addition Scott Downs has landed on the DL with a broken foot. Scioscia’s presence is always a plus, but there are too many ifs involved (especially the health of Morales and Downs) to make a persuasive case, so we’re going to pass in Anaheim.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-30-2011, 11:27 PM

NL Pitching Rotations

1) Philadelphia

Roy Halladay (21-10, 2.44 ERA)
Cliff Lee (12-9, 3.18 ERA)
Cole Hamels (12-11, 3.06 ERA)
Roy Oswalt (13-13, 2.76 ERA)
Joe Blanton (9-6, 4.82 ERA)

Skinny: It's tough to find a staff more loaded than this one in all of baseball following the signing of Lee in the offseason. Halladay dominated in his first season with Philadelphia, while Oswalt pitched well after coming over from the Astros in a mid-season trade. The rotation is balanced with two stud right-handers and two elite southpaws which will make for plenty of big numbers to lay with the Phillies.

2) San Francisco

Tim Lincecum (16-10, 3.43 ERA)
Matt Cain (13-11, 3.14 ERA)
Jonathan Sanchez (13-9, 3.07 ERA)
Madison Bumgarner (7-6, 3.00 ERA)
Barry Zito (9-14, 4.15 ERA)

Skinny: The Giants stunned the baseball world with their impressive run to a World Series title. It wasn't the offense that carried San Francisco to a championship, instead Lincecum picked up two wins in the Fall Classic to help the Giants knock off the Rangers. Bumgarner pitched well over the final three months, while the Giants combined for a 25-12 mark when Cain and Sanchez took the mound at AT&T Park.

3) St. Louis

Chris Carpenter (16-9, 3.22 ERA)
Adam Wainwright (20-11, 2.42 ERA)
Jaime Garcia (13-8, 2.70 ERA)
Jake Westbrook (10-11, 4.22 ERA)
Kyle Lohse (4-8, 6.55 ERA)

Skinny: The three-headed monster of Carpenter, Wainwright, and Garcia dominated despite the Cardinals being unable to qualify for the playoffs. Wainwright struggled down the stretch, but compiled a 1.78 ERA in 16 home starts (12-4). The Cards went 19-6 in Carpenter's starts the first four months of the season, while floundering the final two months with a 3-7 ledger. Garcia cashed plenty of 'unders' in his first 13 starts with 12 'unders,' but that number tapered with nine 'overs' in the southpaw's last 15 outings.

4) San Diego

Mat Latos (14-10, 2.92 ERA)
Clayton Richard (14-9, 3.75 ERA)
Tim Stauffer (6-5, 1.85 ERA)
Aaron Harang (6-7, 5.32 ERA)
Dustin Moseley (4-4, 4.96 ERA)

Skinny: Pitching at spacious Petco Park definitely helps lower ERA's around the league as San Diego cashed in until late-season meltdown. Latos turned into one the season's big surprises with the Padres winning 14 of his first 19 starts prior to a 1-7 finish the final five weeks. Richard performed his best under the lights with an 11-3 mark in night starts, while Stauffer closed the season with six straight 'unders.' Former Red Aaron Harang returns to his native San Diego trying to salvage his career after falling out of favor in Cincinnati.

5) Florida

Josh Johnson (11-6, 2.30 ERA)
Ricky Nolasco (14-9, 4.51 ERA)
Javier Vazquez (10-10, 5.32 ERA)
Anibal Sanchez (13-12, 3.55 ERA)
Chris Volstad (12-9, 4.58 ERA)

Skinny: The Marlins were paced by Johnson and Nolasco, despite a bullpen that gave away a ton of leads last season. Johnson hung around the Cy Young race until September thanks to an NL-best 2.30 ERA, while posting 19 straight quality starts from mid-April through the end of July. Vazquez should see success back in the NL after struggling with the Yankees last season, while Sanchez cashed eight of nine 'unders' in matinee action.

6) Atlanta

Tim Hudson (17-9, 2.83 ERA)
Tommy Hanson (10-11, 3.33 ERA)
Derek Lowe (16-12, 4.00 ERA)
Jair Jurrjens (7-6, 4.64 ERA)
Mike Minor (3-2, 5.98 ERA)

Skinny: The Braves led the NL East for a majority of the season, but settled for a Wild Card berth in Bobby Cox's final season as manager. Hudson turned in a fantastic season, including an 11-5 mark at Turner Field. Jurrjens suffered through a groin injury after the first month, but went 7-1 from late June through early September. Lowe and Hanson each saw ups and downs, as both right-handers are expected to deliver plenty of wins, but beware laying big numbers with them.

7) Cincinnati

Johnny Cueto (12-7, 3.64 ERA)
Edinson Volquez (4-3, 4.31 ERA)
Bronson Arroyo (17-10, 3.88 ERA)
Homer Bailey (4-3, 4.46 ERA)
Travis Wood (5-4, 3.51 ERA)

Skinny: The Reds shocked many with its ascent to the top of the NL Central with a solid lineup that led the National League in runs (790). Cincinnati's rotation took care of business against division opponents as the Reds went 49-30 against NL Central foes. The Reds won 11 of Cueto's first 16 starts, but the right-hander finished 0-4 in his final seven outings of the season. Arroyo is an innings-eater by delivering over 200 innings for the seventh straight season, while going 9-5 in his 14 starts against division opponents.

8) Milwaukee

Zack Greinke (10-14, 4.17 ERA)
Yovani Gallardo (14-7, 3.84 ERA)
Shaun Marcum (13-8, 3.64 ERA)
Randy Wolf (13-12, 4.17 ERA)
Chris Narveson (12-9, 4.99 ERA)

Skinny: The biggest problem with the Brew Crew has been its pitching as the lineup delivers yearly. Milwaukee made major upgrades to its rotation with the acquisitions of Greinke and Marcum. Greinke struggled last season after winning the Cy Young Award in 2009 with the Royals. Things will ease up for Marcum now that he is out of the AL East, as the former Blue Jay went 2-8 against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays in 2010. After Greinke's pickup, the pressure eases off of both Gallardo and Wolf, as the two combined for a 15-8 record away from Miller Park.

9) Chicago

Ryan Dempster (15-12, 3.85 ERA)
Matt Garza (15-10, 3.91 ERA)
Carlos Zambrano (11-6, 3.33 ERA)
Randy Wells (8-14, 4.26 ERA)
Carlos Silva (10-6, 4.22 ERA)

Skinny: Following a disastrous 75-87 season, the Cubs retained their pitching staff to go along with the acquisition of Garza from Tampa Bay. The right-hander's numbers should improve by going to the NL Central, while Zambrano concluded the season at 8-0 in his last 11 starts after his mid-season meltdown. Dempster had an uncharacteristically mediocre record at Wrigley Field (5-7), but pitched significantly better on the highway (10-5). Silva turned into one of the better pickups for the Cubs as he started 8-0 in his first 10 outings.

10) Los Angeles

Clayton Kershaw (13-10, 2.91 ERA)
Chad Billingsley (12-11, 3.57 ERA)
Ted Lilly (10-12, 3.62 ERA)
Hiroki Kuroda (11-13, 3.39 ERA)
Jon Garland (14-12, 3.47 ERA)

Skinny: The Dodgers struggled with producing runs at times last season, as Kershaw was the victim of poor run support by receiving two runs or less on 11 occasions. The midseason trade for Lilly from Chicago helped improve the numbers for the southpaw as the former Cub went 7-4 in Dodger blue. Billingsley and Kuroda compiled solid ERA's, but that didn't translate into as many wins as expected.

11) Colorado

Ubaldo Jimenez (19-8, 2.88 ERA)
Jorge De La Rosa (8-7, 4.22 ERA)
Jason Hammel (10-9, 4.81 ERA)
Jhoulys Chacin (9-11, 3.28 ERA)
Aaron Cook (6-8, 5.08 ERA)

Skinny: The Rockies couldn't quite capture the late-season magic of 2007 and 2009 as Colorado fell short of the postseason. Jimenez was the big story of the first two months with a 13-1 mark, while allowing just 13 earned runs in that span. Colorado's rotation couldn't come close to duplicating Jimenez's effort, as Hammel's 7-2 ledger at Coors Field was a positive sign. De La Rosa took a step back after injuries, but compiled a 5-2 mark in matinee starts.

12) Houston

Wandy Rodriguez (11-12, 3.60 ERA)
Brett Myers (14-8, 3.14 ERA)
J.A. Happ (6-4, 3.60 ERA)
Bud Norris (9-10, 4.92 ERA)
Nelson Figueroa (5-3, 3.22 ERA)

Skinny: The Astros received a boost from Myers as the ex-Phillies righty put together a perfect 8-0 record and 2.01 ERA at Minute Maid Park. Rodriguez turned in a respectable ERA, but the southpaw failed to win in five September starts. Happ should be a solid addition in his first full season in Houston after a 5-4 mark in 13 starts since his trade from Philadelphia.

13) Arizona

Ian Kennedy (9-10, 3.80 ERA)
Joe Saunders (9-17, 4.47 ERA)
Daniel Hudson (8-2, 2.45 ERA)
Barry Enright (6-7, 3.91 ERA)
Zach Duke (8-15, 5.72 ERA)

Skinny: Believe it or not, the D-Backs have something to build on in 2011 after putting up a 4.81 ERA last season. Hudson emerged as a solid starter following a trade from the White Sox with a 7-1 mark in Arizona. Kennedy's best stretch came from mid-July through the end of August as the D-Backs went 8-2 in his 10 starts in that stretch. Saunders came over in the Dan Haren trade from the Angels, as the southpaw struggled in the NL with a 3-7 record with the Snakes.

14) N.Y. Mets

Michael Pelfrey (15-9, 3.66 ERA)
Jon Niese (9-10, 4.20 ERA)
R.A. Dickey (11-9, 2.84 ERA)
Chris Young (2-0, 0.90 ERA)
Dillon Gee (2-2, 2.18 ERA)

Skinny: The Mets will be without ace Johan Santana until the All-Star Break following shoulder surgery. This makeshift rotation will be led by Pelfrey, who pitched well at Citi Field with a 10-3 record. Dickey's knuckleball baffled hitters through his first seven starts with six victories, while putting up a 1.99 ERA at home. Young looks to contribute after several injury-ridden seasons in San Diego, as this staff overcame injuries to an underachieving lineup in 2010.

15) Washington

Livan Hernandez (10-12, 3.66 ERA)
John Lannan (8-8, 4.65 ERA)
Jason Marquis (2-9, 6.60 ERA)
Jordan Zimmermann (1-2, 4.94 ERA)
Tom Gorzelanny (7-9, 4.07 ERA)

Skinny: The Stephen Strasburg experiment put fans in the stands at Nationals Park for a little bit, but shoulder surgery puts the fireballer on the shelf for 2011. Instead, the Nats will rely on veterans Hernandez and Marquis, who should log plenty of innings if healthy. Gorzelanny is a decent arm to have at the back-end of the rotation, while Lannan was profitable on the road with a 6-3 ledger.

16) Pittsburgh

Paul Maholm (9-15, 5.10 ERA)
Ross Ohlendorf (1-11, 4.07 ERA)
Kevin Correia (10-10, 5.40 ERA)
James McDonald (4-6, 4.02 ERA)
Charlie Morton (2-12, 7.57 ERA)

Skinny: The worst pitching staff in baseball has an uphill battle climb as the Pirates search for relevancy. Maholm was the only starter with at least 160 innings pitched, while cashing seven of nine 'unders' in daytime action. Ohlendorf disappointed after an 11-10 campaign in 2009, as the former Yankee picked up only win, which coincidentally came in a shutout of the Phillies. McDonald was winless on the road, while going 4-2 at PNC Park after getting traded from the Dodgers in July.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-30-2011, 11:29 PM

AL Pitching Rotations

March 27, 2011

With pitchers and catchers reporting for spring training this month, Major League Baseball is right around the corner. From the betting perspective, it's time to get back on the diamond and prepare for the 2011 season as football is now in the rear-view mirror. Let's take a look at all 14 starting rotations in the American League and what to expect for this season.

1) Oakland

Trevor Cahill (18-8, 2.97 ERA)
Gio Gonzalez (15-9, 3.23 ERA)
Dallas Braden (11-14, 3.50 ERA)
Brett Anderson (7-6, 2.80 ERA)
Rich Harden (5-5, 5.58 ERA)

Skinny: Even though the A's were not a playoff team, Oakland led the American League in ERA at 3.56, while Cahill and Gonzalez each had career seasons. Braden made news with his perfect game against the Rays in early May, but ultimately went 7-12 in his final 23 starts of the season. Anderson finished the season strong with a 4-0 mark in six outings, while the return of Harden to the Oakland rotation will give the A's some solid experience on the back-end.

2) Boston

Jon Lester (19-9, 3.25 ERA)
Clay Buchholz (17-7, 2.33 ERA)
Josh Beckett (6-6, 5.78 ERA)
John Lackey (14-11, 4.40 ERA)
Daisuke Matsuzaka (9-6, 4.69 ERA)

Skinny: The Red Sox look to be the team to beat in the American League this season thanks to Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez joining the lineup. However, the rotation is still loaded with Lester as the ace and the emergence of Buchholz in 2010. Lackey wasn't sharp in his first season with the Red Sox, but he started with nine wins in his first 12 decisions. The key is if Beckett can return to elite status after a back injury derailed his numbers, even though the former World Series MVP allowed 24 earned runs in five starts against the Yankees.

3) Minnesota

Francisco Liriano (14-10, 3.62 ERA)
Carl Pavano (17-11, 3.75 ERA)
Scott Baker (12-9, 4.49 ERA)
Kevin Slowey (13-6, 4.45 ERA)
Nick Blackburn (10-12, 5.42 ERA)

Skinny: The staff's home ERA improved by nearly a run with the move from the Metrodome (4.49) to Target Field (3.53), as the Twins wrapped up their second straight division title. Pavano proved to be the backbone of the staff in his first full season with Minnesota, while Liriano is the southpaw to turn to as long as he stays healthy. Baker, Slowey, and Blackburn's numbers at home picked up with the move outdoors, as the offense helped provided plenty of run support for this staff.

4) L.A. Angels

Jered Weaver (13-12, 3.01 ERA)
Dan Haren (12-12, 3.91 ERA)
Ervin Santana (17-10, 3.92 ERA)
Joel Pineiro (10-7, 3.84 ERA)
Scott Kazmir (9-15, 5.94 ERA)

Skinny: The Halos failed to win the AL West for the first time since 2006, but that was more with the offense struggling to score (883 runs in '09, 681 in '10) after Vladimir Guerrero went to Texas and Kendry Morales tore his ACL celebrating a grand slam. Weaver lost a career-high 12 games, but led the AL in strikeouts with 233. Santana won a career-best 17 games, while Haren went 4-0 in his final eight starts after struggling through the first month following his trade from Arizona.

5) Chicago

Mark Buehrle (13-13, 4.28 ERA)
Gavin Floyd (10-13, 4.08 ERA)
John Danks (15-11, 3.72 ERA)
Edwin Jackson (10-12, 4.47 ERA)
Jake Peavy (7-6, 4.63 ERA)

Skinny: The White Sox own potentially one of the more formidable rotations in the American League, but Chicago needs more consistency from the back-end. Jackson's numbers improved following his trade from Arizona as he won four of six decisions with Chicago. Peavy is recovering from a right shoulder injury suffered last July and hopes to ready for Opening Day. Danks was the best pitcher from June 10 to August 10 with an 8-3 record in 12 starts, including nine quality outings.

6) Tampa Bay

David Price (19-6, 2.72 ERA)
James Shields (13-15, 5.18 ERA)
Wade Davis (12-10, 4.07 ERA)
Jeff Niemann (12-8, 4.39 ERA)
Jeremy Hellickson (4-0, 3.47 ERA)

Skinny: The Rays lost Matt Garza to the Cubs, but still own one of the great young arms in the AL with Price's breakout season of 2010. Tampa Bay won 24 of Price's 34 starts, including a 12-4 mark on the road. Shields ranked in the bottom 10 of AL starting pitchers in money (-800), his second straight season finishing below .500 since a 14-8 record in the pennant-winning season of 2008. Keep an eye on Hellickson, who won his first three games as a starter prior to his move to the bullpen over the last two months.

7) Texas

C.J. Wilson (15-8, 3.35 ERA)
Colby Lewis (12-13, 3.72 ERA)
Tommy Hunter (13-4, 3.73 ERA)
Derek Holland (3-4, 4.08 ERA)
Brandon Webb (22-7, 3.30 ERA in '08)

Skinny: The only World Series appearance in Rangers' franchise history was jump-started by the incredible playoff showing by Cliff Lee. With the southpaw off to Philadelphia, the Rangers will count on another lefty to lift them in Wilson, who paced the staff with 15 victories. Wilson turned into the most profitable pitcher in the AL by clearing 12.5 units and a 24-9 team record when he took the mound. Lewis and Hunter proved their worth with solid seasons, while the acquisition of Webb gives the Rangers depth at the back-end as long as the former Cy Young Award winner remains healthy.

8) Seattle

Felix Hernandez (13-12, 2.27 ERA)
Jason Vargas (9-12, 3.78 ERA)
Doug Fister (6-14, 4.11 ERA)
Erik Bedard (5-3, 2.82 ERA in '09)
Lucas French (5-7, 4.83 ERA)

Skinny: Similarly to the Rangers, the Mariners' staff was boosted by Lee's early-season success. Hernandez held down the fort despite a horrific offense, as King Felix claimed his first career Cy Young Award while leading the AL in innings pitched (249.2) and ERA (2.27). There was very little to count on past Hernandez, as Vargas lost his final seven decisions after a 9-5 start. Bedard is working toward a spot in the rotation after missing last season following shoulder surgery. Seattle was the biggest money-burning team in baseball by dropping nearly 37 units, including a 17-40 division record.

9) N.Y. Yankees

CC Sabathia (21-7, 3.18 ERA)
Phil Hughes (18-8, 4.19 ERA)
A.J. Burnett (10-15, 5.26 ERA)
Ivan Nova (1-2, 4.50 ERA)
Sergio Mitre (0-3, 3.33 ERA)

Skinny: The Yankees spent a ton of money on pitching two years ago with the signings of Sabathia and Burnett. Sabathia remains an elite pitcher after winning at least 20 games for the first time in his career. Burnett was the worst starting pitcher to back in all of baseball last season with a 13-20 team record, while losing 15.6 units. Hughes turned into a strong number two starter with a career-high 18 victories, but the loss of Andy Pettitte to retirement hurts the Yankees in October.

10) Toronto

Ricky Romero (14-9, 3.73 ERA)
Brett Cecil (15-7, 4.22 ERA)
Brandon Morrow (10-7, 4.49 ERA)
Kyle Drabek (0-3, 4.76 ERA)
Jesse Litsch (1-5, 5.79 ERA)

Skinny:The Blue Jays held their own last season despite the loss of Roy Halladay to the Phillies. Southpaws Romero and Cecil combined to win 29 games, while Cecil cleared nearly 11 units for bettors. Morrow had a decent season in his first as a starter, as the former Mariner struck out a career-best 17 in a one-hit shutout of the Rays in early August. There are hopes that Drabek can step up this season after losing all three of his starts last season, while allowing three earned runs in each outing.

11) Detroit

Justin Verlander (18-9, 3.37 ERA)
Max Scherzer (12-11, 3.50 ERA)
Rick Porcello (10-12, 4.92 ERA)
Brad Penny (3-4, 3.23 ERA)
Phil Coke (7-5, 3.62 ERA)

Skinny: Verlander paced the staff with a 12-3 record at Comerica Park, while going 9-1 during matinee action in 2010. There wasn't a reliable number two in this rotation, as Scherzer went through up-and-down season as the Tigers won only four of his 16 road starts. Porcello spent some time in Triple-A Toledo trying to recapture the magic of his rookie season (14-9, 3.96 ERA), while Penny will pitch for his fifth team since 2008 as the veteran recovers from back injury suffered last season.

12) Cleveland

Fausto Carmona (13-14, 3.77 ERA)
Justin Masterson (6-13, 4.70 ERA)
Mitch Talbot (10-13, 4.41 ERA)
Carlos Carrasco (2-2, 3.83 ERA)
Josh Tomlin (6-4, 4.56 ERA)

Skinny: The Indians aren't expected to do much in a top-heavy AL Central, but Carmona leads this rotation after picking up the most wins in a season since 2007 (19). Masterson owned a solid 3.28 ERA at Progressive Field, while this translated to a 3-5 record at home. Talbot started strong in his rookie season, but only won two of his final nine outings. Carrasco put together quality starts in seven of eight trips to the mound, while delivering at least six innings each time out.

13) Baltimore

Jeremy Guthrie (11-14, 3.83 ERA)
Brian Matusz (10-12, 4.30 ERA)
Justin Duchscherer (2-1, 2.89 ERA)
Chris Tillman (2-5, 5.87 ERA)
Jake Arrieta (6-6, 4.66 ERA)

Skinny: The O's made several key acquisitions to bolster their lineup (Derrek Lee, Vladimir Guerrero, and Mark Reynolds), but the pitching has to improve in the difficult AL East. Guthrie finished with a respectable ERA despite 10 starts against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays. Baltimore won 11 of Matusz's final 12 starts of the season, while cashing the 'under' in his last eight outings. Duchscherer came over from Oakland as the two-time All-Star recovers from an elbow injury suffered early last season. Arrieta beat the Yankees twice last season, while also knock off World Series participants San Francisco and Texas on the road.

14) Kansas City

Jeff Francis (4-6, 5.00 ERA)
Luke Hochevar (6-6, 4.81 ERA)
Bruce Chen (12-7, 4.17 ERA)
Kyle Davies (8-12, 5.34 ERA)
Vin Mazzaro (6-8, 4.27 ERA)

Skinny: The Royals owned the worst pitching staff in the AL despite former Cy Young winner Zack Greinke anchoring the staff. Greinke is now in Milwaukee, as the Royals look to re-tool with ex-Rockies' southpaw Jeff Francis. The Vancouver native delivered just three quality starts in his final 11 outings in Colorado, while trying to find the magic of 2007 when he helped lead the Rockies to the World Series. Hochevar, the top selection of the 2006 draft, pitched well the first two months of the season before a strained right elbow derailed his 2010 campaign. Chen finally found a home after bouncing around for most of his career by winning seven of his last nine decisions over August and September.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-31-2011, 06:17 PM

Sorry i couldn't post the earlier baseball games.......I was at work and sites like this just won't let me access it.......i tried to get the lines out last night and it just wouldnt' let me make my choices......so i'll go with whats left...........

**StarDust Bum** · 03-31-2011, 06:18 PM

Cardinals are heavy favorites vs. Padres on Opening Day

SAN DIEGO PADRES (0-0)

at ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (0-0)

First pitch: Thursday, 4:15 p.m. EDT
Line: St. Louis -190, San Diego +180, Total: 7

St. Louis opens its season with a three-game series against San Diego at Busch Stadium on Thursday afternoon.

The Cardinals will send Chris Carpenter to the mound against the Padres’ Tim Stauffer. Carpenter finished last season with a 16-9 record and 3.22 ERA. He will make his sixth Opening Day start, and fifth for St. Louis, which had an 86-76 record last season. The 2005 NL Cy Young Award winner had a major league-best 35 starts in 2010 and pitched 235 innings with 179 strikeouts, 63 walks, a 1.18 WHIP, .244 BAA and one complete game. Carpenter was 12-4 with a 2.81 ERA at home last season, allowing 42 earned runs in 134.1 IP. He was also 4-5 in day games with a 3.78 ERA. He did not pitch against the Padres last season, but did so in 2009, tossing seven innings of three-hit shutout ball and striking out six.

Stauffer will make his first Opening Day start for the injured Mat Latos, who was placed on the disabled list with bursitis in his right shoulder. He started seven games for San Diego last season, and made 25 relief appearances. Stauffer finished with a 6-5 overall record and 1.85 ERA, throwing a career-high 82.2 IP. He tallied 61 strikeouts, 24 walks and a 1.08 WHIP in 2010. As a starter, Stauffer was 3-2 with a 1.83 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, helping the Padres post a 4-3 mark in his seven starts. One of his starts in 2010 came at Busch Stadium versus the Cardinals last Sept. 16. In that game, he allowed four earned runs and six hits in five innings, while striking out two and walking two in a 4-0 loss. Stauffer is 0-4 with a 9.33 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in four career starts versus St. Louis. He posted a 2-0 record with a 3.66 ERA in 19.2 innings this spring, surrendering three walks and striking out 14, despite dealing with a hip flexor injury.

St. Louis went 4-3 against San Diego in seven meetings in 2010, including a 3-1 mark at Busch Stadium where it outscored the Padres 26-13 in four games last September. There are too many reasons to pick heavily-favored St. Louis to win this game, especially the lopsided pitching matchup. This FoxSheets trend likes Carpenter and the Cardinals to cover the spread on Thursday.

ST LOUIS is 15-3 (83.3%, +12.4 Units) against the money line in home games against NL West opponents over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ST LOUIS 5.4, OPPONENT 2.2 - (Rating = 1*).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-31-2011, 06:19 PM

Giants begin title defense in L.A.

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (0-0)

at LOS ANGELES DODGERS (0-0)

First pitch: Thursday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: San Francisco -105, Los Angeles -105, Total: 6.5

Defending World Series champion San Francisco opens its season on the road against rival Los Angeles on Thursday night at Dodger Stadium.

San Francisco will start right-hander Tim Lincecum (16-10, 3.43 ERA) against L.A. on Thursday. Lincecum struck out 231 hitters last season to lead the National League for the third straight year. He pitched 212.1 IP and compiled a 1.27 WHIP with a .242 Opp. BA. Lincecum was also 7-3 on the road in 2010 with a 3.17 ERA. He started three games versus the Dodgers and went 2-0, allowing seven earned runs total in 17.2 IP (3.57 ERA) with 18 K's. For his career, Lincecum is 4-1 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.19 WHIP versus L.A., helping the Giants go 7-2 in his nine starts. Don't expect L.A. to improve on those numbers Thursday, as the Dodgers ranked 21st in runs scored (667) last season. The Giants will be without All-Star closer Brian Wilson (48 saves, 74.2 IP, 1.81 ERA), who is on the disabled list with a strained oblique, while postseason hero Cody Ross (.269 BA, 14 HR, 65 RBI) is out with a strained calf.

Dodgers left-hander Clayton Kershaw will counter San Francisco's ace on the mound. Kershaw finished with a pedestrian 13-10 record last season, his third in the big leagues, but his ERA was outstanding (2.91 ERA), and he tallied a career-high 212 strikeouts, which were the fifth-most in the NL. He also pitched over 200 innings (204.1) and had a WHIP of 1.18. In 17 starts at Dodger Stadium, the lefty was 7-5 with a 3.33 ERA, but his numbers against the Giants were impressive. In four starts in 2010 versus San Francisco, Kershaw was 1-1 with a shutout, but that doesn't tell the whole story. He pitched a total of 29 innings against L.A., surrendering only 18 hits and five earned runs while striking out 25 with an Opp. BA of .176.

Los Angeles was 8-10 against San Francisco last season. Thursday's meeting marks the 10th time since 1958 that these two teams have met on Opening Day. The Giants have won six of the previous nine, and this FoxSheets coaching trend likes San Francisco to open its season with a big road win on Thursday night.

Bruce Bochy is 53-43 (55.2%, +27.2 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 or less as the manager of SAN FRANCISCO. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 3.4, OPPONENT 3.2 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-31-2011, 06:19 PM

Celtics look to win in San Antonio for 5th straight time

BOSTON CELTICS (51-22)

at SAN ANTONIO SPURS (57-17)

Tip-off: Thursday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: San Antonio -2, Total: 187.5

The injury-riddled Spurs try to avoid their longest losing streak since the 1996-97 season when they host Boston on Thursday. San Antonio has dropped four straight games overall, and has also lost four consecutive home meetings with the Celtics.

Boston enters Thursday tied with Miami for second place in the East, 2½ games behind Chicago. The Celtics are just 5-7 SU (4-8 ATS) in their past 12 games, including four straight ATS defeats. Help is on the way, however, as Jermaine O’Neal, who hasn’t played since Jan. 10 (missing 36 games), is expected to return to the court Thursday. Boston beat the Spurs 105-103 at home on Jan. 5, as it shot 61.3% from the field. Rajon Rondo posted an impressive triple-double of 12 points, 10 rebounds and 22 assists, and added six steals against San Antonio. Rondo did not play on Sunday due to a jammed finger on his right hand, but he did return to the court in Monday’s 107-100 loss at Indiana, scoring 22 points and dishing out eight assists. Paul Pierce led the Celtics with 23 points and now has scored at least 20 points in four of his past five games, averaging 21.4 PPG on 51.5% FG over that span. Boston has really struggled offensively over its past 10 games, averaging 87.3 PPG, while shooting just 44.9% FG and 29.7% from the three-point line. The Celtics are playing great defense though, holding these 10 opponents to 85.0 PPG on 41.8% FG.

The Spurs’ lead over the Lakers in the West standings is down to just 3½ games following this four-game skid. San Antonio is also a dismal 7-12 ATS (37%) in its past 19 games. Much of this slide coincides with Tim Duncan missing all four defeats with a sprained ankle, but there are other injuries too. Tony Parker (left knee contusion), Manu Ginobili (bruised thigh) and Antonio McDyess (back) all missed Sunday’s 100-92 home loss to Portland. Parker (17.5 PPG, 6.6 APG), Ginobili (17.8 PPG, 5.0 APG) and McDyess (5.2 PPG, 5.3 RPG) are all expected to play Thursday, but Duncan (13.3 PPG, 9.0 RPG) will likely miss his fifth straight game. Over the past five seasons, Parker has shot 52% FG against Boston, while Ginobili has made 18 of his past 40 three-point attempts (45%) versus the Celtics.

Boston is 7-2 ATS as an underdog and 11-6 ATS (65%) with at least two days of rest this season. San Antonio is 5-8 ATS on two days’ rest and 2-8 ATS in its past 10 home games. These numbers prompt me to choose the Celtics to pick up the big road victory. The FoxSheets provide two more trends backing Boston:

Play On - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON) - off a upset loss as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record. (172-112 since 1996.) (60.6%, +48.8 units. Rating = 2*).

Doc Rivers is 92-60 ATS (60.5%, +26.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record as the coach of BOSTON. The average score was BOSTON 95.3, OPPONENT 96.0 - (Rating = 1*).

Boston played 10 straight games Under the total before the Over occurred in Monday’s loss to the Pacers. This FoxSheets trend expects the Under to occur again on Thursday night.

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (BOSTON) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. (150-92 over the last 5 seasons.) (62%, +48.8 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-31-2011, 06:20 PM

Mavs-Lakers riding win streaks into Thursday

DALLAS MAVERICKS (52-21)

at LOS ANGELES LAKERS (53-20)

Tip-off: Thursday, 10:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Los Angeles -6, Total: 190.5

The Mavericks try to extend their five-game winning streak against the sizzling Lakers who are 15-1 in their past 16 games, including seven straight victories. The winner of this contest will claim second place in the Western Conference, as L.A. holds a ½-game lead over Dallas entering Thursday.

The Mavericks are coming off a 106-100 win Wednesday night against the Clippers, which increased their NBA-best road record to 27-10 (24-13 ATS, 65%). Despite allowing L.A. to reach the century mark, Dallas is still allowing just 85.8 PPG on 43% FG during its five-game win streak. Dirk Nowitzki led the Mavs on Wednesday with 24 points, but saw his impressive free-throw streak end at 74 consecutive makes. Nowitzki has struggled against the Lakers this season, with just 19.5 PPG on 44% shooting, but Shawn Marion has thrived, scoring 23.5 PPG on 64% FG and 8.0 RPG versus the Lakers this season. Dallas has had trouble defending L.A. over the past four seasons. The Lakers are 9-4 in these games, averaging 104.4 PPG on 48.4% FG.

In addition to their overall seven-game win streak, the Lakers have won nine straight home games since the All-Star break. They are also very well-rested, having not played since Sunday’s 102-84 blowout of New Orleans. Despite the impressive SU run, L.A. has dropped four of its past five games ATS, and is 14-22 ATS (39%) at home. This is the second-worst home mark in the NBA, ahead of only Miami. Kobe Bryant has really picked up his game of late, averaging 36.3 PPG on 48% FG over his past three games. However, Bryant has been held to 17.0 PPG on 40.8% FG in six meetings since the start of last season, which is his lowest scoring average versus any opponent. Pau Gasol has also caught fire lately. He had 23 points and 16 rebounds against the Hornets and is averaging 22.5 PPG and 10.0 RPG over his past six games, while connecting on 54.4% FG and 88.5% FT (23-of-26).

These teams have met twice this season with Dallas winning 109-100 on Jan. 19 and the Lakers returning the favor with a 96-91 road win on March 12. Los Angeles is 23-4 SU when hosting Dallas since 1996, but the Mavs have the slight 14-13 ATS advantage over this span. Although Dallas is 12-5 ATS (71%) on zero day’s rest this season and 13-8 ATS (62%) as an underdog, I’m going against the numbers and picking a well-rested Los Angeles team to win and cover at home. This choice is backed up by these two FoxSheets trends:

Play On - Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA LAKERS) - after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). (62-29 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.1%, +30.1 units. Rating = 2*).

Play Against - Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - playing on back-to-back days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record. (96-55 over the last 5 seasons.) (63.6%, +35.5 units. Rating = 2*).

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