The Bum's Final Four Best Bets News and Notes !

[StarDust Bum]

Final Four Breakdown

March 31, 2011


There are just three games left in the NCAA tournament as we’re down to the Final Four at Houston’s Reliant Stadium.

It’s never easy to handicap the teams that have reached this point, but this quartet is furthest away than anyone expected to see. That makes it all the more difficult when trying to handicap the teams.

One thing that you find out quickly is that there are plenty of different takes on what will make the difference from the opening tip to cutting down the nets. Some bettors will believe that coaching matters more than talent, while others believe the pressure of the moment will dwarf everything else.

Are these points of the sports bettors and the casual fans valid? It’s hard to say one way or the other. At least it gives us a way to break down all four schools, which we’re doing in 12 separate categories.

This year’s field is wide open in that three of the four teams come up tops in at least three of the categories. The program bringing up the rear is Virginia Commonwealth, who led in two spots but came in last on four occasions.

According to sportsbook.com, Kentucky is a 3/2 favorite to win it all in Houston on Monday night. The Rams, on the side of the spectrum, are offering 4/1 odds to complete the dream run.



FINAL FOUR BREAKDOWN - TOP TO BOTTOM
RANK 1 2 3 4

Talent
Kemba Walker is ready to go to the NBA right now. The Huskies also have quality options in Jeremy Lamb, Alex Oriakhi and Shabazz Napier to keep teams guessing.

Brandon Knight leads another solid crew of freshmen for John Calipari. Terrence Jones cleans up the boards as well as anyone left in the big dance.

Jamie Skeen has shown why he why he was a top recruit of the Demon Deacons back in the day (15.4 PPG, 7.4 RPG). Meanwhile, Joey Rodriguez runs the offense with great efficiency as well.

The Bulldogs lost a lot in Gordon Hayward going to the NBA. Yet they're right back in the Final Four with Matt Howard leading a cast of solid role players.

Toughness
While the big names aren't on Butler, they are arguably the mentally toughest team left in the national title hunt. Erasing an 11-point deficit to the Gators is proof of that.

The Wildcats got hot at the right time of the season. But the defensive work they put on against the Buckeyes and Tar Heels was nothing short of impressive.

VCU has been successful in adapting they're style of play in every game of the tourney. The most impressive outcome was in the win over Florida State as they pushed back just enough to reach the Elite 8.

UConn has had a charmed life during its tournament run. However, the Huskies' are lacking on defense, making the game versus Arizona a lot tougher than they probably should have been.

Coaching
Brad Stevens - He's only been a head coach for four years, but he's got a resume that other mentors would drool over. Plus, he knows how to get the most of his team and doesn't let them get overwhelmed.

Jim Calhoun - Sets the standard for unethical coaching right now with UK's Calipari. But Calhoun has only lost one Final Four game in his career.

Shaka Smart - Smart's had a very fast rise to coaching stardom. It's paid off with his ability to motivate his team after making the field.

John Calipari - It's hard to put Cal in a corner here, but he's getting some of the nation's best talent. Recruit the best and you should be in this spot.

Toughest Road
Nobody can argue with how the Bulldogs got back to the Final Four. Butler went through a No. 1, 4 and 2 seed to win the Southeast Region. And we can't forget about the last-second win against No. 9 Old Dominion to stay alive in the tourney.

The Wildcats earned this spot in the national semifinals after surviving against No. 1 overall Ohio State and rolling past North Carolina. Plus, Kentucky had tough outs against Princeton and West Virginia in the opening weekend.

The road to the Final Four was longer for the Rams, having to play in the first round against the Trojans. Yet they are arguably the most impressive team in the national semis after four double-digit wins in five NCAA tournament games.

The long road to this spot started at MSG for the Huskies with the Big East championship. But they've had a relatively quiet run to the Final Four, outside of holding on for dear life against Arizona.

Gambling Favorites
VCU is 5-0 SU and ATS as an underdog in the NCAA tournament. Playing them on the money line would have you at +1,620.

Butler is 13-0 SU and 9-3-1 ATS during its 13-game win streak. The 'under' is on a 6-3 run.

Kentucky is 3-1 ATS in the big dance, going 2-1 ATS as a favorite.

The Huskies are 3-1 ATS during the tourney. As single-digit 'dogs, they're 4-0 SU and ATS.

Intangibles
They aren't the most talented team in the Final Four, but they know how to win on this stage. That sometimes is more important than having the big names.

The Huskies are proof that the regular season means nothing. Can they do the Big East proud by riding Walker's tremendous play?

Kentucky is not winning pretty, but they are winning. If any game comes down to the final seconds with the scores deadlocked, UK and Knight have my vote for a clutch victory.

The Rams have used the "us against them" mantra to reach great heights. Is there enough left in that tank to complete a magical run?

Pressure
There isn't very much of a honeymoon for Calipari in Lexington. He's already been to two Elite 8s and is in his first Final Four. A loss to the Huskies will be considered a failure by the UK faithful. Strange to think of when you consider what he had to replace from last year's squad.

The Huskies have to be pleased with being in this spot after a lackluster regular season. But the belief is that UConn should win the national championship if they get past the Wildcats.
Butler played with house money and finished three-points short of winning a championship last season. Now the Bulldogs are up huge in their second straight spot in the national semis. There has to be a belief amongst the team that this is its best chance to win it all.

Nobody felt the belonged in the big dance. They've used that to get to this point. Even if the Rams lose to Butler or in the national title game on Monday night, this year was a great success

[StarDust Bum]

Final Four Betting Notes

What will you all be doing early Saturday evening? Is the first game of the Final Four between the small programs of Virginia Commonwealth and Butler "Must See TV"? This will be the question many of the Las Vegas sports books will hope the answer to is "Yes" despite not having the traditional glamour schools from major conferences participating.
Even CBS has made it clear they know who the country would rather see by putting the VCU Cinderella story in the less attractive time slot prior to the east coast prime time hours. Ratings are a winner for television, but does it also translate to the betting window in Vegas?

These are some of the questions that not only Vegas sportsbooks will be dealing with, but the entire nation. Do we like two Cinderella's in the Final Four, or do we like just one every couple of years?

It may sound trivial, or not even an issue, because the Final Four has become such an institution over the years with every game seeming just as meaningful as the next, but is that really true? If you’re being pressured to do yard work Saturday by the wife, knowing you have to sacrifice one game over the other, at what time do you start shaving the palm trees?

It's probable that unless you're from Virginia or Indiana, the Kentucky-Connecticut game will get star billing in every household. At the same time, how can anyone not be compelled with it being the first Final Four ever to not have a No. 1 or 2 seed present while also offering a No. 8 and 11 seed?

The rabid college basketball fans who frequent the Las Vegas sportsbooks every day will be ready for the pre-game show and primed no matter who's playing, but for the fringe fan -- the guy who breaks out his home state's college shirt once or twice a year, it's a tough sell which could have final handle numbers for the weekend games off a little.

"I don't think so," says the Las Vegas Hilton's Super Book's Jay Kornegay, "I think the four teams have a little bit to offer for everyone that loves college sports. Yes, VCU isn't as well known, but that's part of the excitement and Butler is kind of a well known name just from being there last year."

Whatever sporting event is coming to a close, it attracts more people to the betting windows and increases handle. The events cross over into homes of folks who don't necessarily follow the sport weekly. Events like the Super Bowl, Kentucky Derby and NBA Finals don't see more volume because the regulars are betting more, it's the people who want a piece of the excitement and a rooting interest that don't play daily who make the difference.

Casual sports fans know Connecticut, they know Kentucky, but they don't know Butler or VCU. You've got the well known Big East and SEC conferences battling who have been on television all year up against the Horizon and Colonial conferences, who are barely seen no matter how much you're willing to pay in DirecTV packages.

"I think this is going to be a normal Final Four compared to years past," said Cantor Gaming's Sports Book Director Mike Colbert, "But I will say that the handle for the UConn-Kentucky game will far outweigh the other game."

There is the innocence of the college sport and the school name across the chest that comes out and grabs the attention of casual fans when underdogs knock off giants that compels them in the same way that endeared us to the movie Hoosiers.

"Most college basketball fans are like me and enjoy seeing the whole story unfold no matter who wins it just because these games are always intriguing," said Colbert, "But across the board, it's the big teams that still draw the big money."

While the Final Four is a big weekend with two big games Saturday and the Championship game on Monday, it's still not up there on the level of the Derby or Super Bowl.

"It's not like the first weekend of the tournament by any means," Colbert said, "People don't fly in to Vegas for Final Four weekend like they do for the first two weeks."

People are worn from the barrage of games that have captivated us all for the last two weeks and when the last three games come around, people want to watch, but they aren't making destination plans to do so.

"The NCAA Tournament is kind of unique for us because the big splash for us happens in the first two rounds," says Kornegay. "It's the only major sport we have where the final game doesn't have the same type of impact for us as the preceding games."

The actual impact of two Cinderellas making the Final Four to Las Vegas won't be known until next week, but Kornegay believes the entity of the event will hold more weight than the participants.

"I don't think it really matters who is in the Final Four, they're going to bet it no matter what."

Check Ego's at the Door, VCU Made the Final Four...Deal With It!

I've never seen the national sports media carry a grudge like they're doing with VCU during their run. Most acknowledge that it's a phenomenal story with a team that barely made the tournament having to win a play-in game just to make the field of 64, and then making the Final Four.

National sports writer Jamele Hill -- who has most recently found fame with her mug on ESPN's "Around the Horn" -- and the always positive hoop spin doctor Dick Vitale have been quick to remind everyone on the social network, via Twitter, that VCU still shouldn't be there. They are sticking to their guns regarding their initial tirades when the selection committee came out with their top 68 teams.

Sure, the few selections were debatable, but after all that has happened, you would think that these ambassadors of the college game might celebrate the accomplishment more.

How about guiding the anger in poison tweets to more worthy topics in regards to the college spirit like questioning the tactics of John Calipari, who somehow is still allowed to roll out his card tricks in the face of the NCAA after crushing two programs, right?

We forget that these kids are just that, kids. It's a game with young adults who are going to school, not getting paid -- in most cases -- and should be void of the type of commentary we reserve for the professionals. Negativity by the media, especially at this level, is unfair. It makes you understand a little what Oklahoma State football coach Mike Gundy was saying when he went on his famous "I'm a MAN" tirade with the media.

Even though Calipari's players may benefit more than others, to see two teams like Butler and VCU do what they are doing should inspire and show that the college game isn't all about non-sanctioned agents, AAU coaches, shoe camps and networking.

It shows that if you have good coaching, players who have some talent that want to better themselves, get an education and work well as a team, you can reach the pinnacle no matter what small conference you're from. Most of the VCU and Butler players have played with each other for three years or more and are a true team in the concept, while Calipari and Kentucky continually have players with basically one-year contracts.

Even though I thought Colorado should have made the field of 68 like many others, I know who I'm rooting for right now without my tiny ego getting in the way.

Las Vegas Sports Book Notes

The Las Vegas Hilton adjusted their future odds for the Final Four with Kentucky being the 7/5 favorite (Bet $100 to win $140) followed by the team they're playing in the semi-final match, Connecticut, as the second choice at 9/4 (Bet $100 to win $225). Butler is 3/1 (Bet $100 to win $300) with super-Cinderella VCU getting 9/2 (Bet $100 to win $450) odds.

So VCU lost to Drexel, Georgia State, James Madison, Northeastern, and well, let's just say quite a few others. However, they are also the only team to win five NCAA tournament games and win by double-digits against four of them. They won as double-digit underdogs against both Purdue and Kansas, so why not take down Butler and whoever makes the final?

As for Butler, after getting through a tough three game losing streak at the end of January -- losing to the likes of Youngstown State -- they have reeled off 13 straight wins coming into the Final Four as the hottest team remaining. They have also covered their last six games in a row.

The SEC wasn't a highly regarded conference within the RPI rankings, but Kentucky did what they had to along the way and has won 10 games in a row, including winning the SEC conference tournament. They knocked off Florida in the SEC title game -- a team seeded higher than them in the NCAA's -- and then went out and beat a Big East team, Big Ten, and ACC squads to get where they are at. They may have the most impressive credentials of all which is why the Wild Cats are the favorites to win it all.

Connecticut didn't lose to a team outside of the Big East all season. They started the season off with 10 straight wins and are currently on a nine-game winning streak that includes winning the Big East tournament. Everyone knew they were good coming into the season, but we kind of got side tracked because of the nine conferences losses. Whatever it is they have done, they have sandwiched in a terrific season of excellence. The most attractive aspect of siding with the Huskies is that they have a star in Kemba Walker who is filling it like not many others have on this stage.

Because of the star player angle with Walker and Connecticut truly being who were all thought they were from November, I'll take them to beat VCU in the Championship Game by nine points.

Sweet 16 Results Good for the House

With all the upsets that occurred last week, it was only natural that the sports books did well. However, after missing out on a string of VCU upsets, the bettors finally jumped on the bandwagon with them against Kansas on the money-line and point line. Despite paying out 5/1 (Bet $100 to win $500) and higher with VCU money-line plays, there was a large cash reserve in the bank with the likes of public favorites Ohio State and Duke losing outright.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday, April 2

Game Score Status Pick Amount

VCU - 6:09 PM ET Butler -2.5 500
Butler - Under 133.5 500

Kentucky - 8:49 PM ET Connecticut +2.5 500
Connecticut - Over 140 500

[StarDust Bum]

Butler slightly favored over VCU in Final Four


#11 seed VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH RAMS (28-11)

vs. #8 seed BUTLER BULLDOGS (27-9)


NCAA Tournament – National Semifinals (Final Four)
Tip-off: Saturday, 6:09 p.m. EDT – Houston, TX
Line: Butler -2.5, Total: 133

Two of the teams traveling to the Space City this week to compete in the Final Four will be arriving via airplane. The other two teams will be arriving by way of pumpkin. Houston, we have a Cinderella. Make that two. One team is the answer to that question that has been asked by college basketball “experts” all season long. Who is this year’s Butler? The answer: LAST year’s Butler. If you think Brad Stevens’ team has been getting overlooked as being last season’s one-hit wonder (that is until they went double platinum last Sunday with a remake of R&B group Shalamar‘s 70‘s hit “Second Time Around”), what can we say about Shaka Smart’s Rams from Virginia Commonwealth University? A team that many in the CBB world were mocking on the evening of Sunday March 13 for being undeserving of a bid to the big dance. All the Rams have done in this, the first year of the 68-team field, is become the first team ever to go from the First Four to the Final Four by winning five games. Along the way, they’ve made the selection committee appear like borderline geniuses. Now the Rams will seek to go from Final Four to last man standing. If there is a “mortal lock” guarantee you can take to the bank about this game, it would be this: one of these teams will definitely be in the road uniforms come Monday night.

Butler is back in the Final Four largely because of the punch that was delivered to the Florida Gators that felt like a Mack truck, but was actually just a little truck named Shelvin Mack. The junior scored 27 points in the regional final versus the Gators, including five points in the overtime period, as the Bulldogs sent Florida back to Gainesville, on the short end of a 74-71 final. The victory capped off a miraculous late comeback for Butler, which trailed by 11 points with just over nine minutes left in regulation, but dug itself out of the hole to reach the mountaintop as champions of the Southeast region. "We just kind of stayed together, stayed the course, figured it out, and just played resiliently," said Stevens. "I'm incredibly proud of these guys. They carried their coach in a big way. ... Our players did a great job, and [they are] just a special group. We're really lucky that they're Butler Bulldogs."

Matt Howard added 14 points and five boards, while freshman Khyle Marshall chipped in with 10 off the bench. Despite a size disadvantage, Butler outrebounded Florida 41-34. The Bulldogs also defended the three-pointer extremely well, holding the Gators to 21.4% (3-of-14) beyond the arc, and outscored them with the three-pointer by a 27-9 margin. The final dagger of the day came when Mack, who played much of the game in pain after rolling an ankle early and cutting his head late, buried a three-pointer to put Butler up for good at 72-70. Now the team will return to the Final Four after having pulled off a sort of triple crown of heart-stopping victories. A win on a basket with no time left, a win on a free throw with 0.8 seconds left, and an overtime win in a game in which they trailed by 11 with under 10 minutes to play. Thank goodness Stevens, who became the youngest coach ever to reach the Final Four for a second time, is only 34 years old. A more senior coach may not be able to handle the excitement.

Excitement could be VCU’s middle name (though it would take a little getting used to calling them Virginia Excitement University). The Rams have made it to the Final Four with an impressive list of victims in their wake. Since the tournament began, they have knocked off teams from the Pac-10, the Big East, the Big Ten, the ACC, and now with Sunday’s 71-61 defeat of Kansas, the Big 12. The only power conferences they haven’t beaten in the month of March are the SEC and the NBA’s Western Conference. And while none of those West teams will be on the schedule anytime soon, it’s hard not to believe VCU couldn’t take out the Lakers given the high it’s been on. Like all regional champs who earn that trip to the national semifinals, VCU also had to survive a scare along the way, and it came in its game against Florida State. The Seminoles had the ball in a tie game with 15 seconds remaining in regulation, but missed a long bad shot as time expired, sending the game to overtime, and giving the Rams new life. Bradford Burgess’ layup off an inbounds pass with 0:06 remaining gave VCU its overtime escape win.

Sunday against No. 1 seed Kansas, the Rams raced to a 17-point, first-half advantage, which was 14 at the break. Kansas furiously closed to within 46-44 with over 13 minutes to play, and had the look of the tortoise poised to pass the hare, when suddenly the hare (or the Ram) went on a 10-2 run, leaving the tortoise in shock. Virginia Commonwealth proved in its last two victories in San Antonio that not only does it have the talent, it also has the poise of a champion, maintaining its composure even when its head coach picked up his first technical foul of the season in the middle of the Jayhawk run. Jamie Skeen, a transfer from Wake Forest, finished with 26 points and 10 rebounds. The Rams forced the Jayhawks into shooting 35.5% from the field, and a miserable 2-for-21 from three-point range. Kansas did not help matters by shooting 53.6% (15-for-28) from the foul line. The Rams meanwhile were 48.0% (12-of-25) from three-point territory, outscoring their opponent 36-6 from downtown.

Maybe the most intriguing aspect of the Butler /VCU match up is simply, no matter what happens, no one will be surprised at the outcome of the game. Each of these teams has already pulled off enough upsets, nail-biters, and fantastic finishes to last for three more tournaments. Seriously, the only thing they haven’t done is win a Final Four game on a last-second, half-court heave off glass, and what are the chances of that ever happening?

Butler is clearly the better rebounding team, with a +3.1 RPG margin on the season, while VCU is at minus-3.8 RPG. These teams have had two common opponents this year, Florida State and Old Dominion. While the Monarchs dominated the glass with an astounding 14.7 RPG margin in three meetings with VCU, ODU was outrebounded by Butler 32-29 in the Round of 64. These teams both average 72 PPG, shoot 44% from the floor and have the ability to catch fire from three-point land. But it was the performances from inside the arc last weekend that shows another difference between these teams, mainly the interior play. Butler made 56 percent (15-of-27) of its two-point field goals versus Florida, while VCU made a dismal 32 percent (9-of-28) of its two-pointers against Kansas.

Reportedly during the pregame captain’s meeting with the game officials one of Kansas’ Morris twins, Marcus or Markieff, offered some parting words to VCU guard Joey Rodriguez minutes before tip-off. His comment was: “the run ends here.” Rodriguez’s reply was short and simple: “We’ll see.” If there is any coach in America unlikely to doubt the ability and confidence that an underdog carries into a tournament game, it would be Brad Stevens. The Bulldogs are one of the smartest and most well-prepared teams in the country because they have learned from the mistakes of others. Kansas, and maybe a couple of other squads, clearly underestimated VCU, but Stevens will not allow Butler to make that same mistake, and that is why the Bulldogs are the pick to advance to the national championship game on Monday night. These highly-rated FoxSheets trends also support the Butler pick.

BUTLER is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.The average score was BUTLER 70.8, OPPONENT 66.3 - (Rating = 5*).

BUTLER is 11-2 ATS (84.6%, +8.8 Units) in non-conference games this season. The average score was BUTLER 72.9, OPPONENT 64.1 - (Rating = 3*).

This FoxSheets trend sides with the Over on Saturday.

VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH is 14-4 OVER (+9.6 Units) in road games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The average score was VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH 72.3, OPPONENT 67.1 - (Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

UConn-Kentucky meet in Final Four nightcap

#4 seed KENTUCKY WILDCATS (29-8)

vs. #3 seed CONNECTICUT HUSKIES (30-9)


NCAA Tournament – National Semifinals (Final Four)
Tip-off: Saturday, 8:49 p.m. EDT – Houston, TX
Line: Kentucky -2.5, Total: 140

When Connecticut and Kentucky meet in Houston, Texas on Saturday evening in the national semifinals, it would be fair to say that John Calipari and Jim Calhoun have gotten some major questions answered about their respective teams in the 128 days since they last met, thousands of miles away at the Maui Invitational, an 84-67 championship game victory for Connecticut. Calhoun has learned that Kemba Walker really is a dominant all-around player who can carry a team of freshmen on his back. He has learned that he did have a freshman player among his large ’10 recruiting class who could step up and provide clutch scoring and leadership in support of Walker. Actually, he had two, Jeremy Lamb and Shabazz Napier. Calhoun also learned that (when “prodded”) Alex Oriakhi was consistent enough to be a big-time rebounder and defensive stopper in big-time games. John Calipari has learned that his young team, with just one senior, had the fortitude to overcome a miserable 1-6 start on the road in SEC play to achieve bigger things later in the season. He learned that his trio of leading scorers, all freshmen (Brandon Knight 17.3 PPG, Terrence Jones 15.8 PPG, Doron Lamb 12.3 PPG) were mature enough to learn how to finish games, and perform defensively at a level commensurate with the standards of their coach. Calipari also discovered that his junior leadership (DeAndre Liggins and Darius Miller) and senior leadership (Josh Harrellson) had enough experience to navigate this team through four tight neutral-court games in the tournament. Both coaches have seen their supremely-talented teams do things at the end of the season that were not possible at the beginning or middle of the season. Now Calipari’s ‘Cats will try and exhibit the ultimate barometer of their growth, by doing something in March that they failed to do in November: defeat Connecticut.

In advancing to the Final Four with a 76-69 victory over North Carolina, Calipari showed that his starting five is now as balanced from an experience standpoint as they are from a scoring one. One senior, two juniors, and two freshmen all scored in double figures. Knight led the way with 22 points, while Miller and Jones chipped in 11 apiece, with Harrellson and Liggins adding 12 apiece. Kentucky is the seventh-best three-point shooting team in the nation (40.0%) and was every bit that good and then some against the Tar Heels, nailing 12-of-22 from beyond the arc (54.5%) while outscoring the opponent with the three-pointer by a 36-9 advantage. On average this season, Kentucky is out-shooting its opposition from beyond the arc by a 40% to 33.1% margin. This is in contrast to Connecticut, a less proficient three-point shooting team, which makes 33.7% from long range, while surrendering 33.3%. A quiet hero during this tourney run for the ‘Cats has been senior center Josh Harrellson, a man who exists in the shadows far from the McDonald’s All-American spotlight occupied by players like Knight and Jones. Harrellson is averaging 14.8 PPG and 9.0 RPG in this NCAA Tournament. More importantly, he has more than held his own against big man duos Jared Sullinger and Dallas Lauderdale from Ohio State, as well as Tyler Zeller and John Henson from Carolina. Harrellson posted 17 points and 10 boards against the Buckeyes, 12 and 8 versus UNC, and only committed four personal fouls total during the two games in Newark. Harrellson will need to hold his own against Connecticut’s towers if Calhoun decides to go with multiple bigs with a combination of Oriakhi, Charles Okwandu and Tyler Olander. If Harrellson were to find himself in foul trouble at any point versus the Huskies Saturday night, Kentucky could be in serious trouble in the paint.

Connecticut’s road to the Final Four has had fewer scares than Kentucky, but a lot of drama nonetheless. In Anaheim, the Huskies rode the Walker/Lamb express to clutch victories over San Diego State and Arizona, the latter win coming only after the Wildcats missed two open three-point shots in the closing seconds of regulation. Lamb has proven to be more than a suitable Robin to Walker’s Batman, as the dynamic duo combined for 60 of the team’s 74 points against the Aztecs, and 39 of the squad’s 65 points vs. ‘Zona. Lamb (11.1 PPG, 4.3 RPG) has come a long way since early January, when in back-to-back games against Texas and Rutgers, he played a total of 15 minutes, and scored just two points. Whether he and his game was in the coach’s doghouse or not is inconsequential, what matters most is he’s in the penthouse now, at the right time of year. Lamb has scored in double figures in every game the Huskies have played since its first game in the Big East tournament. In the NCAA Tournament he is averaging 18.3 PPG. Two years ago, Connecticut had another freshman sensation who scored 23 points in an Elite Eight win over Missouri that sent the Huskies to the Final Four. Once there, the frosh struggled on the big stage of the national semifinals, shooting just 1-for-5 from the floor, and 3-for-9 from the FT line, scoring just five points in the loss to Michigan State. That freshman’s name: Kemba Walker. Today, Walker is a junior, and an All-American, who will do everything in his power to relieve Lamb and his teammates from having to do too much. Walker (23.9 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 4.5 APG) has carried the load all season long, leading the team in scoring, assists, and second in rebounding. He is averaging 26.8 PPG in the tournament and has played 154 out of a possible 160 minutes. The most important challenge that the Huskies may face involves defensive execution. Kentucky shooters have buried 29 three-pointers so far in the tournament, but have yet to face a team defensively with Conneticut’s wingspan that defends this tenaciously on the perimeter. The best shooting performance against the Huskies in the tournament was SDSU’s 42.2%, while the best three-point performance was Bucknell’s 33.3%. If Walker and Napier can use their quickness, and Lamb and Roscoe Smith (5.2 RPG) can use their length to get to the wings and defend Kentucky’s plethora of shooters, Connecticut stands a good chance of punching Jim Calhoun’s ticket for a third trip to the championship game.

The Wildcats are 8-3 ATS on neutral court and 7-2 ATS in March. The Huskies are 21-12 ATS (64%) overall, including 8-1 ATS in non-conference games Saturday will not be a rerun of November 24, it could simply come down to who has the ball last and who will make the final shot when they get the chance. I like the Huskies to advance to the championship game, and like the following highly-rated FoxSheets trends which support my choice of Connecticut.

CONNECTICUT is 11-1 ATS (91.7%, +9.9 Units) in all neutral court games this season. The average score was CONNECTICUT 76.9, OPPONENT 66.4 - (Rating = 4*).

Jim Calhoun is 24-8 ATS (75.0%, +15.2 Units) after a close win by 3 points or less as the coach of CONNECTICUT. The average score was CONNECTICUT 75.0, OPPONENT 64.7 - (Rating = 3*).

The Under is 7-1-1 in the past nine Kentucky games, and these two highly-rated FoxSheets trends side with the Under again on Saturday.

KENTUCKY is 13-3 UNDER (81.3%, +9.7 Units) after 5 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers this season. The average score was KENTUCKY 73.5, OPPONENT 61.0 - (Rating = 3*).

CONNECTICUT is 12-2 UNDER (85.7%, +9.8 Units) versus excellent ball handling teams - committing <=12 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CONNECTICUT 67.5, OPPONENT 64.0 - (Rating = 3*).