The Bum's Final Four Best Bets News and Notes !

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NCAA Odds: Connecticut Huskies Final Four bound

Kemba Walker and the Connecticut Huskies are back in the Final Four. Boy, are they back.

The wins just keep on comin' for Jim Calhoun and UConn who return to the Final four for a second time in three seasons and fourth time in school history. A 65-63 nail-biter over Arizona gave the West Regional to the Huskies who will ride into Houston on a nine-game streak, the first five coming during their amazing run to the Big East Championship.

Saturday's triumph was the lone game during the streak that UConn failed to cover. In fact, they were a mere inch or two from not winning the game at all.

Wildcats senior Jamelle Horne had a chance to win it for Arizona with an open three-pointer as the clock ran out, but his shot bit the rim and bounced off. Horne's miss left him 1-of-7 from the field, part of a bad day by the Arizona bench overall. Wildcats reserves connected on just 3-of-18 attempts, 1-of-9 from long range.

The lack of scoring from the bench proved key for Arizona who was without star Derrick Williams much of the first half after he picked up three quick fouls. Williams lead the Wildcats with 20 points to tie UConn's Walker for game high, but the sophomore contributed to his team's poor outside shooting by going 1-of-6 from three-point range. Arizona found the net just four times in 21 attempts from beyond the arc.

Calhoun got 15 points from his bench, 10 of those from Shabazz Napier who also contributed four boards and two of the Huskies' five steals.

Walker also had an off day shooting from long range, hitting just 1-of-7. The senior played all 40 minutes, as did freshman Jeremy Lamb. The two combined for 39 points.

The Huskies were getting 3½ against Arizona in the West Region Final, the fifth game on their nine-game postseason slate in which Connecticut was favored. UConn is 4-0 as the underdog during the stretch, beating Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Louisville and San Diego State this past Thursday.

Five of the nine games have gone 'over' the total, but the 'under' is 3-1 in Connecticut's four NCAA Tournament matchups.

Walker was a sophomore when UConn reached the Final Four in 2009, also from the West Region. Seeded first and ranked fourth when the tourney began, the Huskies rolled past Chattanooga as 20-point chalk (103-47), thumped Texas A&M as 10-point favorites (92-66), topped Purdue while giving up seven (72-60) and just covered a six-point spread in the West Region Final against Missouri (82-75).

The magic ended in Detroit as five-point favorites to take down Michigan State. The Spartans, seeded second in the Midwest Region, were led by Kalin Lucas and Raymar Morgan who combined for 39 points in MSU's 82-73 upset.

A reserve for Calhoun's crew then, Walker spent a horrible 20 minutes on the court in the loss to Michigan State. He hit just 1-of-5 from the field and missed six of his nine free throws. Walker was also guilty of four fouls and four turnovers.

Two years later, Walker has a chance to make up for that showing starting next Saturday in Houston when the Huskies face either Kentucky or North Carolina from the East Regional.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAA Odds: Butler Bulldogs to Final Four

So, David's matchup with Goliath last April wasn't a fluke after all.

Brad Stevens and the Butler Bulldogs are headed back to the Final Four following their run through the NCAA's Southeast Region. The underdog Bulldogs, seeded eighth in the SE, validated their ticket to Houston next week in Saturday's 74-71 overtime win over 2-seed Florida, a lucky 13th-straight win for Stevens' team that was all but read its last rites in early February.

On their way to Houston, Butler beat a fellow mid-major conference winner from the Colonial Athletic Association, the top-ranked team from the Big East, the third-place team from the Big Ten and the runner-ups from the SEC. Not bad for a crew that was 14-9 on Feb. 3 and coming off a three-loss stretch that included being beaten by the last place team in its own conference.

There are no statistical columns for heart, determination and savvy, but if there were, Butler (27-9 straight up, 19-13-2 against the spread) would be averaging a triple-double. The Bulldogs certainly haven't overwhelmed any team they've faced, and as the underdogs in each of their four tourney games, they weren't supposed to.

Butler's 165 minutes of court time have seen the Bulldogs outscore Old Dominion, Wisconsin, Pittsburgh and Florida by a grand total of 13 points. More than half of that scoring advantage came in a 61-54 win over the 4-seed Badgers who were favored by four. Butler was a one-point 'dog to the 9-seed Monarchs, got eight points versus the 1-seed Panthers and was plus-four against the 2-seed Gators.

Bettors needed those four points and then some at various times during Saturday's battle with Florida. The Gators built an eight-point lead in the first half before Butler battled back to trail by just one at the break. A bit past the midway point of the second half saw Florida holding an 11-point advantage, its largest lead of the game.

Again, Butler battled back, and again it was Matt Howard in the spotlight. His layup at the buzzer had beaten Old Dominion and his free throw in the final second against Pitt sent the Panthers home.

Howard had the chance to win it in regulation again on Saturday. Shooting two freebies with a half-minute remaining, Howard made the first to tie the score but failed to make the second and break the 60-60 deadlock the two teams took into overtime.

A Howard layup 45 seconds into OT gave Butler the lead and the Bulldogs would never trail after that. Shelvin Mack scored five in extra play, including a pair of foul shots that iced it. Ronald Nored added four overtime points for the Bulldogs from the charity stripe.

The biggest number for Butler in the final five minutes came in the rebound column where Khyle Marshall grabbed three boards to give him seven for the game, all off the offensive glass.

The Bulldogs are now 8-1-1 ATS in their 10 games receiving points at the NCAA odds window this season. That lone cover failure came in the team's first lined game of the campaign over four months ago on Nov. 16. Playing at Louisville, Butler backers were given 1½-points that never came close to being enough in an 88-73 Cardinals win.

Butler will either draw another Goliath in Kansas next Saturday in Houston's semifinal round, or the Bulldogs will meet another David should Virginia Commonwealth continue its improbable run in the Southwest Regional.

[StarDust Bum]

Final Four Openers

March 28, 2011

NEW ORLEANS -- The field for the 2011 NCAA Tournament has been reduced from 68 teams down to just four. Those four will battle in Houston this Saturday with the title game slated for Monday night at Reliant Stadium.

Butler has been installed as a 2 ½-point favorite versus Virginia Commonwealth with a total of 132. In the other semifinal matchup, Kentucky has been tabbed as a two-point ‘chalk’ against Connecticut. The total for UConn-UK is 141.

VCU and Butler will play the first game starting at 6:05 p.m. Eastern.

VCU has won five consecutive games in the NCAA Tournament, knocking off the likes of Southern Cal, Georgetown, Purdue, Florida State and Kansas. The Rams have won four of those five games by double-digit margins, including Sunday’s 71-61 win over top-seeded Kansas as 11 ½-point underdogs. Bettors backing VCU on the money line earned a lucrative plus-650 payout (risk $100 to win $650).

Jamie Skeen led the winners with 26 points and 10 rebounds, while Brandon Rozzell drained four 3-pointers. VCU led by as many as 18 in the first half and by 14 at halftime. KU trimmed the deficit down to two at one point, but the Rams responded with 9-2 run and the Jayhawks were unable to mount a legitimate threat the rest of the way.

Butler is the only school making a return trip to the Final Four. The Bulldogs rallied to force overtime against Florida before eventually capturing a 74-71 win as four-point underdogs. They hooked up money-line backers with a plus-160 return.

For the first time in the tournament, Butler will not be an underdog Saturday vs. VCU.

Kentucky ended the longest drought from the Final Four in school history when it held off North Carolina in Sunday’s 76-69 victory as a 1 ½-point favorite. Brandon Knight sparked the Wildcats with 22 points, seven rebounds and four assists. Josh Harrelson added 12 points and eight boards as all five UK starters scored in double figures.

John Calipari has now taken three schools (Umass, Memphis and UK) to the Final Four, although the previous appearances have been removed from the record books for various transgressions. The ‘Cats are gunning for their first national title since Tubby Smith’s team beat Rick Majerus’s Utah squad in 1998.

UConn held off a late charge from Arizona that cost its backers in Saturday’s 65-63 win as a three-point ‘chalk.’ As usual, Kemba Walker led the way with 20 points and seven assists while committing just a pair of turnovers.

The Huskies have won nine consecutive games, including five in the Big East Tournament at MSG and four in the NCAA Tourney. They have covered the spread at an 8-1 ATS clip during this stretch.

Jim Calhoun is the only coach remaining who has a national title to his credit, and he has a pair of them. Stevens and Calipari both have one appearance in the finals with Cal’s Memphis team losing to Kansas in overtime, while Stevens’ Butler squad lost to Duke by two last year.

[StarDust Bum]

Final Four Betting Notes

March 28, 2011

What will you all be doing early Saturday evening? Is the first game of the Final Four between the small programs of Virginia Commonwealth and Butler "Must See TV"? This will be the question many of the Las Vegas sports books will hope the answer to is "Yes" despite not having the traditional glamour schools from major conferences participating.
Even CBS has made it clear they know who the country would rather see by putting the VCU Cinderella story in the less attractive time slot prior to the east coast prime time hours. Ratings are a winner for television, but does it also translate to the betting window in Vegas?

These are some of the questions that not only Vegas sportsbooks will be dealing with, but the entire nation. Do we like two Cinderella's in the Final Four, or do we like just one every couple of years?

It may sound trivial, or not even an issue, because the Final Four has become such an institution over the years with every game seeming just as meaningful as the next, but is that really true? If you’re being pressured to do yard work Saturday by the wife, knowing you have to sacrifice one game over the other, at what time do you start shaving the palm trees?

It's probable that unless you're from Virginia or Indiana, the Kentucky-Connecticut game will get star billing in every household. At the same time, how can anyone not be compelled with it being the first Final Four ever to not have a No. 1 or 2 seed present while also offering a No. 8 and 11 seed?

The rabid college basketball fans who frequent the Las Vegas sportsbooks every day will be ready for the pre-game show and primed no matter who's playing, but for the fringe fan -- the guy who breaks out his home state's college shirt once or twice a year, it's a tough sell which could have final handle numbers for the weekend games off a little.

"I don't think so," says the Las Vegas Hilton's Super Book's Jay Kornegay, "I think the four teams have a little bit to offer for everyone that loves college sports. Yes, VCU isn't as well known, but that's part of the excitement and Butler is kind of a well known name just from being there last year."

Whatever sporting event is coming to a close, it attracts more people to the betting windows and increases handle. The events cross over into homes of folks who don't necessarily follow the sport weekly. Events like the Super Bowl, Kentucky Derby and NBA Finals don't see more volume because the regulars are betting more, it's the people who want a piece of the excitement and a rooting interest that don't play daily who make the difference.

Casual sports fans know Connecticut, they know Kentucky, but they don't know Butler or VCU. You've got the well known Big East and SEC conferences battling who have been on television all year up against the Horizon and Colonial conferences, who are barely seen no matter how much you're willing to pay in DirecTV packages.

"I think this is going to be a normal Final Four compared to years past," said Cantor Gaming's Sports Book Director Mike Colbert, "But I will say that the handle for the UConn-Kentucky game will far outweigh the other game."

There is the innocence of the college sport and the school name across the chest that comes out and grabs the attention of casual fans when underdogs knock off giants that compels them in the same way that endeared us to the movie Hoosiers.

"Most college basketball fans are like me and enjoy seeing the whole story unfold no matter who wins it just because these games are always intriguing," said Colbert, "But across the board, it's the big teams that still draw the big money."

While the Final Four is a big weekend with two big games Saturday and the Championship game on Monday, it's still not up there on the level of the Derby or Super Bowl.

"It's not like the first weekend of the tournament by any means," Colbert said, "People don't fly in to Vegas for Final Four weekend like they do for the first two weeks."

People are worn from the barrage of games that have captivated us all for the last two weeks and when the last three games come around, people want to watch, but they aren't making destination plans to do so.

"The NCAA Tournament is kind of unique for us because the big splash for us happens in the first two rounds," says Kornegay. "It's the only major sport we have where the final game doesn't have the same type of impact for us as the preceding games."

The actual impact of two Cinderellas making the Final Four to Las Vegas won't be known until next week, but Kornegay believes the entity of the event will hold more weight than the participants.

"I don't think it really matters who is in the Final Four, they're going to bet it no matter what."

Check Ego's at the Door, VCU Made the Final Four...Deal With It!

I've never seen the national sports media carry a grudge like they're doing with VCU during their run. Most acknowledge that it's a phenomenal story with a team that barely made the tournament having to win a play-in game just to make the field of 64, and then making the Final Four.

National sports writer Jamele Hill -- who has most recently found fame with her mug on ESPN's "Around the Horn" -- and the always positive hoop spin doctor Dick Vitale have been quick to remind everyone on the social network, via Twitter, that VCU still shouldn't be there. They are sticking to their guns regarding their initial tirades when the selection committee came out with their top 68 teams.

Sure, the few selections were debatable, but after all that has happened, you would think that these ambassadors of the college game might celebrate the accomplishment more.

How about guiding the anger in poison tweets to more worthy topics in regards to the college spirit like questioning the tactics of John Calipari, who somehow is still allowed to roll out his card tricks in the face of the NCAA after crushing two programs, right?

We forget that these kids are just that, kids. It's a game with young adults who are going to school, not getting paid -- in most cases -- and should be void of the type of commentary we reserve for the professionals. Negativity by the media, especially at this level, is unfair. It makes you understand a little what Oklahoma State football coach Mike Gundy was saying when he went on his famous "I'm a MAN" tirade with the media.

Even though Calipari's players may benefit more than others, to see two teams like Butler and VCU do what they are doing should inspire and show that the college game isn't all about non-sanctioned agents, AAU coaches, shoe camps and networking.

It shows that if you have good coaching, players who have some talent that want to better themselves, get an education and work well as a team, you can reach the pinnacle no matter what small conference you're from. Most of the VCU and Butler players have played with each other for three years or more and are a true team in the concept, while Calipari and Kentucky continually have players with basically one-year contracts.

Even though I thought Colorado should have made the field of 68 like many others, I know who I'm rooting for right now without my tiny ego getting in the way.

Las Vegas Sports Book Notes

The Las Vegas Hilton adjusted their future odds for the Final Four with Kentucky being the 7/5 favorite (Bet $100 to win $140) followed by the team they're playing in the semi-final match, Connecticut, as the second choice at 9/4 (Bet $100 to win $225). Butler is 3/1 (Bet $100 to win $300) with super-Cinderella VCU getting 9/2 (Bet $100 to win $450) odds.

So VCU lost to Drexel, Georgia State, James Madison, Northeastern, and well, let's just say quite a few others. However, they are also the only team to win five NCAA tournament games and win by double-digits against four of them. They won as double-digit underdogs against both Purdue and Kansas, so why not take down Butler and whoever makes the final?

As for Butler, after getting through a tough three game losing streak at the end of January -- losing to the likes of Youngstown State -- they have reeled off 13 straight wins coming into the Final Four as the hottest team remaining. They have also covered their last six games in a row.

The SEC wasn't a highly regarded conference within the RPI rankings, but Kentucky did what they had to along the way and has won 10 games in a row, including winning the SEC conference tournament. They knocked off Florida in the SEC title game -- a team seeded higher than them in the NCAA's -- and then went out and beat a Big East team, Big Ten, and ACC squads to get where they are at. They may have the most impressive credentials of all which is why the Wild Cats are the favorites to win it all.

Connecticut didn't lose to a team outside of the Big East all season. They started the season off with 10 straight wins and are currently on a nine-game winning streak that includes winning the Big East tournament. Everyone knew they were good coming into the season, but we kind of got side tracked because of the nine conferences losses. Whatever it is they have done, they have sandwiched in a terrific season of excellence. The most attractive aspect of siding with the Huskies is that they have a star in Kemba Walker who is filling it like not many others have on this stage.

Because of the star player angle with Walker and Connecticut truly being who were all thought they were from November, I'll take them to beat VCU in the Championship Game by nine points.

Sweet 16 Results Good for the House

With all the upsets that occurred last week, it was only natural that the sports books did well. However, after missing out on a string of VCU upsets, the bettors finally jumped on the bandwagon with them against Kansas on the money-line and point line. Despite paying out 5/1 (Bet $100 to win $500) and higher with VCU money-line plays, there was a large cash reserve in the bank with the likes of public favorites Ohio State and Duke losing outright.

[StarDust Bum]

Final Four Round Up

March 28, 2011


It’s onward to Houston for the Final Four. To put the wraps on the 2011 NCAA Tournament, listed below are some interesting trends and angles to consider before our Fab Four lifts off this weekend. All results listed below are ATS (Against The Spread) and most recent since 1991 unless noted otherwise. Enjoy…

FINAL 4 ROUND NOTES

• #3 seeds are 7-3 (4-0 SU and ATS as favs or dogs of 4 or less points)
• #8 or lower seeds are 0-3
• Teams off BB SU dog wins are 1-8
• Teams who are 3-0 ATS last 3 games are 9-24
• Teams with revenge are 2-7
• Big East teams are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS
• SEC teams are 6-2 as dog or favorites of less than 7 points
• Teams with the greater win percentage are 10-2 SU and ATS S/2005
• Returnees from last year in this round are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS as favorites

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME NOTES

• #3 seed dogs are 1-3
• #5 or worse seeds are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS
• Favorites of 5 or less points are 10-1
• Favorites who scored 80 > points in the Final 4 round are 4-1
• Teams with a win percentage of .810 < are 0-4 SU & ATS
• Teams off an ATS win of 16 or more points are 1-5 SU and ATS • Dogs of more than 2 points who allowed 60 > points in Final 4 round are 1-5
• Dogs 3 or more points off a SU dog win are 1-5
• Big East teams are 3-0 SU and ATS
• SEC teams are 3-0 ATS as favorites

COACH ME UP

Butler’s Brad Stevens is:
48-56-4 ATS as a favorite and 16-6-1 ATS as a dog
33-16-2 ATS vs non-conference
10-3 SU and ATS in NCAA tournament
2-2 SU and ATS vs Big East
1-0 SU and ATS vs CAA
1-2 SU and ATS vs SEC

Connecticut’s Jim Calhoun is:
228-236-12 ATS as a favorite and 63-57-1 ATS as a dog
98-98-5 ATS vs non-conference
43-13 SU and 28-27-1 ATS in NCAA tournament
7-1 SU and 2-6 ATS vs CAA
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs Horizon League
13-5 SU and 11-7 ATS vs SEC

Kentucky’s John Calipari is:
237-204-14 ATS as a favorite and 53-27-1 ATS as a dog
129-98-5 ATS vs non-conference
32-13 SU and 23-21-1 ATS in NCAA tournament
23-8 SU and 17-13-1 ATS vs Big East
6-0 SU and ATS vs CAA
2-0 SU and ATS vs Horizon League

VCU’s Shaka Smart is:
24-26-1 ATS as a favorite and 9-6 ATS as a dog
14-12 ATS vs non-conference
5-0 SU and ATS in NCAA tournament
1-1 SU and ATS vs Big East
0-0 SU and ATS vs Horizon League
0-1 SU and ATS vs SEC

There you have it, trends and notes of teams and coaches for the NCAA Final Four and out games played the last 20 years. I hope you’ve enjoyed the tournament as much as I have. I’ll return during the NBA playoffs with an overview of some Good, Bad, and downright Ugly stats and trends. Until then, enjoy the rest of the ‘Dance’.

[StarDust Bum]

A rival coach examines VCU's Final Four chances

What are VCU's strengths and weaknesses? Which player is truly the best on the team, and which one has habits that could cause this dream run to come to an end Saturday against Butler? Under the cloak and promise of anonymity, I got a colleague of Shaka Smart's, a fellow head coach in the Colonial Athletic Association, to agree to speak well and ill of the Rams. An edited-for-content transcription of our conversation is below.

Did you expect VCU to go the furthest in this year’s tournament?
“No. It was definitely Old Dominion. I thought they had the most experience, they won in the tournament last year, had a lot of seniors. I thought they were clearly playing the best entering [the tournament].”

Did you honestly consider VCU as an NCAA tournament team by the end of the CAA tournament? The entire team wasn’t even together to watch the Selection Show.
“Really, I kind of had a feeling they were gonna a get in because there were some other teams that the NIT was talking to, and I know the NCAA tournament committee was very interested, with some of the non-conference wins VCU had. I think that’s what helped most, plus the way they played in the conference tournament.”

What tendencies does VCU have that make it likely the run won’t continue any further?
“In the regular season, I think they didn’t shoot the ball the way they are now. I think, now, they’re a very good defensive team, a great athletic group and can change the tempo of the game defensively. Now, to me, the difference is, if they can continue to make 3-point shots. They have to make those to win. Right now, it just seems like every 3-point shot they take is going to go in.”

Which starter is the biggest liability for the Rams?
"(Joey) Rodriguez. He plays well, they win. But when he doesn't, like against Old Dominion in the CAA final, he was bad. And they lost. He's aggressive. Sometimes over-aggressive. And a streaky shooter. When his feet are set and he is making shots, they become a very good team. When he is able to penetrate and kick out, they move without the ball well. Teams will try to contain him and keep him off balance with bigger guards."

Who is this team's most important player and why?
“I think it’s (Jamie) Skeen (pictured). He’s so big and athletic. He’s older, a redshirt guy who came from the ACC [ed. Skeen previously played for Wake Forest] and has big-game experience. If he’s scoring in the 20s and has 7 or 8 rebounds, they have a great chance to win. He can really score it out.”

Is Skeen the best big man left in this tournament? UConn has Alex Oriakh; Butler has Matt Howard; Kentucky has Terrence Jones, who has dipped in play and can’t play to his right.
“I don’t know if he’s the best big man left, but he may be the most diverse. He’s got the ability to play inside and outside as well as anyone left, for sure.”

What weaknesses does Skeen have?
“At times he disappears. Just at times, a little bit. He’s aggressive offensively, and when he’s doing that, VCU’s really tough to beat. He absolutely needs to stay aggressive.”

Which VCU win in the tournament was most impressive win in their tournament run to you: the close one against Florida State? Holding off Kansas? Humbling Purdue?
“I’ve seen all their games. … I think it was Kansas because Kansas came out to start the game and you said, ‘Oh, man, it’s going to be a rout.’ But they hung in there. Not only that, but they got control of the game and did what they wanted to with the ball. They did it against Kansas.”

It didn’t always look this promising for VCU. It was 12-6 in league play, after all.
“They did hit a wall, definitely. I remember talking to Shaka and how he was frustrated with defensive intensity and how they weren’t playing up to potential. They had problems, but they’ve corrected them. They aren’t playing like a mid-major team at this point.”

What can you tell us about Shaka?
“I think he’s always thinking. Always. They seem to have a little different of a gameplan, a different approach, a different edge with whoever they’re playing. They apply that same defensive pressure, constant aggressiveness. That comes from him.”

Of the other three Final Four teams, which weaknesses do they possess that give VCU it's best chance to actually win this tournament? How unfathomable is it to you that VCU could win this?
“It’s not out of the question now. Kentucky’s got the youth. Even though they’ve played well, now it’s different. They’re still young and getting ready to play on a national stage. I think that could factor in a bit. UConn relies so heavily on a great player. If Kemba Walker doesn’t shoot well, that team could be very, very vulnerable. Butler’s overall ability to handle VCU’s pressure could be the biggest thing that prevents them from winning. I think it will be tough for them.

Which team is the best matchup for VCU?
“I think it’s Butler. I think they match up well with Butler, and then you get the national championship game, and all bets are off."

[StarDust Bum]

Final Four teams not necessarily strong on road

I'd love to be able to dedicate the time and research toward the type of in-depth, perspective-broadening analysis Nate Silver's been delivering to us with his FiveThirtyEight blog as of late. Alas, that'd be a fool's errand. Nate's work has been as valuable as anything anywhere else on the Internet this March, in regard to college basketball. (Nate, make this an annual thing, K?) Plus, I've got packing for Houston to do. (Hate me for that humble brag if you must; I'm soaking in my first Final Four trip.)

So let's get to the point, and I promise not to make this too long. The collective road record of your 2011 Final Four participants: a completely ordinary 24-24.

Road records aren't always predictive of deep tournament runs. I'm not exactly digging upon new earth here. In fact, it's sort of inherent to the unpredictable nature of this year's Final Four that the teams wouldn't have an overwhelming or extraordinary road record, but let this be the latest example of why we need to pump the brakes on emphasizing road play. Below, the team-by-team record when playing in hostile environments this past season. I counted semi-away games to gather as much of a data set as possible; those games helped in the win column for what it's worth. If I hadn't accounted for those, the aggregate win-loss would fall below .500. From lowest seeded to highest:

No. 3 Connecticut: 5-5

No. 4 Kentucky: 4-7

No. 8 Butler: 7-6

No. 11 VCU: 8-6

This year, none of the four teams have more than four wins above .500. That wasn't the case with most teams in the past five years. The Rams, who have moved up more than 30 spots, to No. 50 in KenPom's rankings, had the best road mark of any team, as you can see. Ironic, yet appropriate, given the completely outlier-defining play of VCU in the past two weeks. No, it's road record is not the reason why. There are many odd reasons much more tangible than that. In case you're curious, the collective road record of the four one seeds who failed to book flights to Houston: 33-9.

Is road play during the regular season not indicative, one way or the other, and therefore not legitimately more valuable than many other factors? I say yes. It's just one thing to consider among about, oh, I don't know; it's an ever-morphing formula for teams that win in March. Winning on the road isn't any sort of writing on the wall. When you look at a team primarily through that lens, you discount other facets of a team's ability and performance. It's an unnecessary hindrance.

Plus, obviously, the tournament features no road games, though, admittedly, some do come close. VCU beat No. 3 Purdue in Chicago. UConn beat higher-seeded San Diego in Anaheim. Conversely, Duke and North Carolina continue to win at extremely high clips when playing in North Carolina during the first weekend. If you're wondering about how teams do playing close to home let's circle back around to Nate's work from nearly three weeks ago.

More and more, we're seeing how this tournament can act as a crapshoot. This Final Four is the greatest evidence of that, buttressed by Butler's title-game appearance last season, and George Mason's run five years ago. The road is long, but not transparent.

[StarDust Bum]

Final Four Look Ahead: Could it get any crazier?

I always knew I would spend the first weekend in April in Houston at the Final Four because, you know, it's kind of my job. But I had no idea I would be spending it with Kentucky, Connecticut, Butler and VCU, and I'm pretty sure Kentucky, Connecticut, Butler and VCU had no idea they would be spending it with each other.

I mean, how could they?

This is the first time all four No. 1 seeds and all four No. 2 seeds have missed the Final Four. The combined seeds of the four remaining teams is 26; the previous high was 22 in 2000. So this really is the most unlikely Final Four in history, and if Butler or VCU wins two more games, we'll also have the most unlikely national champion in history -- not to mention our first champion from outside of the conference power structure since UNLV won a title in 1990.

Bottom line, this craziness has brought college basketball to the verge of more craziness.

To help prepare you, I bring the Final Four Look Ahead.

We had this pegged all wrong: Yes, my bracket is a mess. But so is yours. So let's not waste time trying to make sense of Ohio State and Kansas being done while Butler and VCU are not. You've got a better chance of figuring out that confusing film called Mulholland Drive than you do this Final Four because there's nothing that happened during the regular season that suggested this was realistic. A team that finished ninth in the Big East (Connecticut), a team that finished three games back in the SEC East (Kentucky), a team that finished fourth in the Colonial (VCU) and a team that took five losses in the Horizon (Butler) will compete for the national title this weekend. If your bracket has more than two Final Four teams left, you're an idiot.

But I did have UK figured out on New Year's Eve: Kentucky pounded Louisville on Dec. 31, at which point I posted a blog headlined "UK can shoot its way to the Final Four.". It contained the following sentence: "This season's Kentucky team isn't nearly as talented as last season's Kentucky team, and yet I won't be surprised if this season's Kentucky team goes farther than last season's Kentucky team, which is to say all the way to the Final Four." From there, I went on to explain that John Calipari's losses in the 2006 Elite Eight and 2010 Elite Eight were both the results of terrible shooting performances -- specifically a 2-of-17 effort on 3-pointers in Memphis' loss to UCLA and a 4-of-32 effort on 3-pointers in UK's loss to West Virginia -- and I pointed out how this UK team could be different because it has better shooters, hence the "shoot its way to the Final Four" headline. In case you missed it, UK made 12 of 22 3-point attempts Sunday against North Carolina and thus shot its way to the Final Four. So if you need me, I'll be over here patting myself on the back.

And now the Wildcats are the favorite to win it all: According to Sportsbook.com, that's true. Kentucky (+150) is the favorite followed by Connecticut (+200), Butler (+300) and VCU (+400). As for the Saturday games, UK is a 2-point favorite over UConn; Butler is a 2.5-point favorite over VCU.

The contrasts in Houston

Contrast in ages: Combine Brad Stevens (34 years old) and Shaka Smart (33 years old), and they still haven't lived as long as Jim Calhoun (68 years old), whose head-coaching career started in 1972 -- four years before Stevens was born and three years before Smart was born. When Calhoun won the 1999 NCAA tournament, Stevens was a point guard at DePauw and Smart was a point guard at Kenyon College. Stevens and Smart have been head coaches for six combined seasons. Meantime, Calipari (52 years old) was the head coach at UMass for eight seasons and Memphis for nine seasons. In between, he spent four years in the NBA -- three as the head coach of the Nets and one as an assistant with the Sixers.

Contrast in programs: Butler (2) and VCU (1) have made a combined three Final Fours. Kentucky (14) and Connecticut (4) have combined for 18. Five different men (Adolph Rupp, Joe B. Hall, Rick Pitino, Tubby Smith and Calipari) have taken UK to the Final Four. Calhoun, Stevens and Smart are the only men to ever lead their schools to the Final Four.

Contrast in salaries: Calipari makes roughly $4 million annually for coaching UK while Calhoun makes about $2.3 million for coaching UConn. It's believed that Stevens, after a significant pay raise, now makes around $1 million annually coaching Butler. Smart's base salary is only $325,000, but he has made about another $200,000 in bonuses thanks to this run through the NCAA tournament.

Contrast in NCAA violations: Calipari has vacated Final Fours at UMass (1996) and Memphis (2008), and Calhoun currently has UConn on three years of probation. Stevens and Smart have done no such things.

Everybody left has shown the ability to lose

Kentucky and Butler are the favorites to advance to the title game next Monday, but there really isn't much difference between these teams. They come from different leagues, have different styles and different levels of prospects, but they've all shown they can beat and lose to almost anybody. In fact, the four remaining teams have a combined 37 losses. Only Connecticut went the entire season without losing to a team not good enough to make the Field of 68.

Here's the breakdown:

Kentucky: Lost eight games total and three games to teams that didn't make the Field of 68. The Wildcats' last loss was Feb. 23 at Arkansas.

UConn: Lost nine games total and zero games to teams that didn't make the Field of 68. The Huskies' last loss was March 5 to Notre Dame.

Butler: Lost nine games total and six games to teams that didn't make the Field of 68. The Bulldogs' last loss was Feb. 3 at Youngstown State.

VCU: Lost 11 games total and five games to teams that didn't make the Field of 68: The Rams' last loss was March 7 to Old Dominion.

So how did these teams make the Final Four?

Kentucky made the Final Four because ... it hired a coach (Calipari) who recruits pros and, almost always, gets them to perform like pros. It's surprising that Ohio State didn't advance out of the East Regional, but there's nothing all that surprising about a roster with pros advancing to the third weekend.

UConn made the Final Four because ... it has a Hall of Fame coach (Calhoun), a veteran star (Kemba Walker) and an emerging star (Jeremy Lamb), and because the Huskies simply got hot at the right time. In other years, that might not be enough. But it is this year.

Butler made the Final Four because ... it has a brilliant coach (Stevens) and a roster of players willing to commit on both ends of the court to doing whatever must be done to achieve success. That the Bulldogs don't rattle is another important quality. They've trailed in the second half of three of their four games in this NCAA tournament. Never once did it seem to matter.

VCU made the Final Four because ... it has a coach (Smart) who masterfully played the us-against-the-world card while his team suddenly became great at making 3-pointers. The Rams played 34 times before Selection Sunday and never made 12 3-pointers in a game. But they've done it three times in this NCAA tournament -- against Georgetown (12 for 25), against Florida State (12 for 26) and against Kansas (12 for 25).

And the national champion will be ...

Title game I expect to watch: Butler vs. Kentucky

National champion I expect to see crowned: Butler

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NCAA Tournament Odds: Butler Bulldogs, VCU Rams collide

Butler is a 2½-point favorite in Saturday’s Final Four battle with VCU.
The favorites are all gone. None of the first or second seeds are heading to Houston this weekend for the Final Four, no doubt to the dismay of CBS.

Madness, indeed.

In a tournament rife with upsets, it's only fitting that the two schools tipping the Final Four are the ones that did the most work to overturn status quo. Cue the "Hoosiers" soundtrack for the Virginia Commonwealth Rams and Butler Bulldogs who get underway a little past 3:00 p.m. (PT) Saturday on CBS.

Butler opened as a 2½-point favorite with the total at 133.

Oddsmakers have the Bulldogs at plus 360 to go on from this game to win Monday night's championship tilt. The Rams are plus 460 to complete their most unlikely run through the NCAA Tournament.

The sports books see this semifinal game as just a prelim to the real title tilt between Kentucky, favorites at plus 140, and UConn (plus 190) who will play Saturday's nightcap (5:45 p.m. PT).

Silly sports books. Haven't they learned anything at all this March? This matchup, the Rams and Bulldogs, is the real championship.

Brad Stevens and the Bulldogs made a remarkable run through the Southeast Region, knocking off the first-, second- and fourth-seeded teams along the way. Underdogs in all four tournament games, last Saturday's win in the regional final was Butler's lucky 13th straight to punch a return ticket to the Final Four.

As extraordinary as the Bulldogs have been, Shaka Smart and VCU have been one of the greatest stories in tournament history, let alone this year's event. The team that was never even supposed to get an invite to this year's dance is now a win away from playing for it all.

The Rams, like the Bulldogs, have been underdogs throughout the madness starting with their First Four contest versus USC. VCU's five-game assault on the court and at the NCAA odds window has seen 1-, 3-, 6-, 10- and 11-seeds fall to the wayside.

As impressive as their takedowns of both Georgetown and Purdue were, the Rams saved their best – so far – for last Sunday with a 71-61 whipping of Kansas, the final top seed left in the tournament. The final score wasn't indicative of how convincingly Virginia Commonwealth busted the Jayhawks and truly rocked chalk as underdogs of 11½.

Forget all of the talk about Kansas choking that one more than VCU winning it. The Jayhawks simply got outplayed everywhere but on the glass. Bill Self's crew knew it had to defend against the three, and KU didn't get that done. The Rams hit nearly half their long-range heaves (12-of-25) while the Jayhawks were a pathetic 2-of-21 from three-point range trying to recover once VCU built its lead.

Stevens and the Bulldogs almost have to be feeling like the next big program in line for VCU's rampaging ways despite this being a matchup with another mid-major. While the Rams have skated to three of their five wins by double-digit margins, Butler's four victories have been by a combined 13 points.

Seven points in that gap came in one game, the 61-54 victory over Wisconsin in the Sweet 16, the 'easiest' of Butler's games after building a 20-point lead over the Badgers midway through the second half.

There hasn't been anything pretty about Butler's wins in the boxscores. The Bulldogs have shot progressively worse from all areas on the court since escaping with the 71-70 win versus Pittsburgh to advance to the Sweet 16. Florida had fewer turnovers, more steals and blocks, hit its free throws at a higher rate and shot better from the field overall in the SE Regional Final. Still, Butler won the game in overtime, 74-71.

Holding Florida to just one field goal the last six-plus minutes of regulation and working the offensive glass the entire game, especially late, pushed the Bulldogs to Houston.

Virginia Commonwealth will be Butler's second CAA opponent this tourney, the other Old Dominion to open the dance. The Bulldogs got a late layup from Matt Howard to keep that game from heading into overtime, 60-58.

ODU got the better of VCU twice in three games this season, cashing both wins at the window. That included a 70-65 win in the conference championship on March 7 as 4½-point favorites.

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NCAA Odds: Kentucky, UConn fight in Final Four

UConn upset Kentucky at the Maui Invitational last November, 84-67.
The Connecticut Huskies and Kentucky Wildcats meet for the second time this season, this one in Saturday’s Final Four for a chance to play for the national title.

The Don Best odds screen has Kentucky as 2 ½-point favorites with a total of 140-points. CBS will have the coverage at 5:45 p.m. (PT) from Reliant Stadium in Houston.

The Wildcats are the remaining favorite with all the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds gone. They’re plus 140 at Bookmaker.com, followed by Connecticut (plus 190) and bracket-busters Butler (plus 365) and VCU (plus 450).

Kentucky lost badly to Connecticut (84-67) in the November Maui Invitational final. Kemba Walker had 29 points for then-unranked Connecticut and big man Alex Oriakhi added 18 points and 11 rebounds, out-shooting eighth-ranked Kentucky 58-37 percent.

Maui made a lot of believers of the Huskies and they zoomed up to No. 7 in the AP rankings the following week. Still, few predicted this pairing as recently as a week ago with Connecticut a No. 3 seed from the West Region and Kentucky a No. 4 from the East.

Kentucky (29-8 straight-up, 16-15-1 against the spread) is looking for its eighth national championship, the first since 1998. Coach John Calipari has never won a national title, losing the 2008 final to Kansas in OT while with Memphis. He also made the Final Four with UMass in 1996.

Calipari has his share of detractors, mostly due to his rule infractions, but his ability to recruit and coach is not in doubt. He led Kentucky to the Elite Eight last year and then saw five guys leave as NBA first-round picks including stars John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins and Patrick Patterson.

That would have decimated other programs, but Calipari added three dynamic freshmen in Brandon Knight (17.3 PPG), Terrence Jones (15.8 PPG) and Doron Lamb (12.3 PPG).

Those diaper dandies are the Wildcats’ three leading scorers and have developed nicely since the first Connecticut game. However, it’s been the recent play of upperclassmen Darius Miller, DeAndre Liggins and Josh Harrellson that’s spurred them to the Final Four.

Harrellson had 17 points and Liggins 15 in the 62-60 Sweet Sixteen upset over top-seed Ohio State as 5 ½-point ‘dogs. Liggins also hit a key three-pointer with 37 seconds left in Kentucky’s 76-69 Elite Eight win over No. 2 seed North Carolina as 1 ½-point ‘chalk.’ Knight led with 22 points as his streaky play continues, but all five starters were in the double-digits.

The senior Harrellson is not that talented, but he’s battled hard against big men Jared Sullinger and Tyler Zeller the last two games. He needs to keep Oriakhi off the glass and keep him honest defensively. Harrellson has plenty of motivation after scoring no points in the Maui meeting.

The Huskies (30-9 SU, 21-12 ATS) are on a nine-game winning streak (8-1 ATS) that began with winning the Big East Tournament as a ninth seed. Coach Jim Calhoun is looking for his third national title, with the others coming in 1999 and 2004.

Walker is a first team All-American with averages of 23.9 PPG, 5.3 RPG and 4.5 APG. He’s upped his scoring to 26.8 PPG during March Madness, but this is far from a one-man wrecking crew anymore.

Walker scored just 20 points against Arizona in the Elite Eight. He was 1-of-7 from three-point land and 7-of-17 overall. The Huskies would have likely lost that game earlier this year with Walker’s numbers, but they still won 65-63, although failing to ‘cover’ the 3 ½-points.

Freshman Jeremy Lamb (11.1 PPG) excelled with 19 points against Arizona, including some huge baskets down the stretch. He has a nice mid-range game and he’s really stepped up his play during this tournament (18.3 PPG).

The ‘under’ is 3-1 for Connecticut during March Madness, scoring 72.3 PPG and allowing 60 PPG. San Diego State (74-67 win) in the Sweet 16 is the only game to go ‘over.’

The big question for Saturday is whether Walker can be contained. The 6-foot-6 Liggins will get most of the defensive assignments and he has a five-inch height advantage. Calhoun does a good job of moving Walker around from point to shooting guard to free up looks.

Kentucky did a great job defensively against Ohio State (32.8 percent shooting) and North Carolina (43.5 percent) and will put forth another great effort here.

Neither team is reporting any significant injuries.

The national title game will be Monday night with the winner getting Butler (minus 2 ½) or VCU.

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Final Four betting trends


The first 64 games of this year’s tournament have been characterized by their unpredictability. While the improbable Final Four of Butler, Connecticut, Kentucky and Virginia Commonwealth have been preparing to tip-off in Houston this weekend, we’ve been examining the past 10 Final Fours in an effort to find some trends amidst all the chaos.
The National Semifinals have been pretty good to favorites, who have posted a 12-8 (60%) edge straight up and an 11-9 (55%) mark ATS.

The National Finals have proven to be even better to favorites. Favorites have gone 8-2 (80%) SU and 7-3 (70%) ATS. Syracuse (2003) and Kansas (2008) are the only two underdogs to win outright, while Butler (2010) is the lone ‘dog to cover without winning the game.

In terms of totals, semifinal matchups are 11-8-1 (58%) OVER, while championship games have been played closer to the vest, with six of the past 10 (60%) games going UNDER.

As for how the conferences represented in this year’s Final Four have fared over the past 10 Final Fours, there’s not a ton of data to cull from outside of the Big East, which has been represented seven times by six different schools. The Big East is just 4-5 (44%) SU and 3-6 (33%) ATS. Big East teams are 6-3 (67%) OVER in these games. Connecticut is 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS in its two Final Four appearances this decade. The Huskies find themselves as Final Four underdogs for the only time since their 1999 triumph over Duke in the championship game.

The SEC is 4-1 (80%) both SU and ATS in this study, with Florida accounting for all four wins in its back-to-back championship runs in 2006 and 2007. LSU’s 2006 semifinal loss to UCLA is the lone blemish. Florida and LSU were the favorites in all five of these games, three of which went OVER (60%).

VCU’s Colonial Athletic Association counterpart George Mason was a loser both SU and ATS in its ground-breaking appearance in the Final Four in 2006, falling to Florida 73-58 as a 6-point underdog in a game that just barely snuck UNDER the 131.5 total.

Finally, Butler went 2-0 ATS in last year’s Final Four with both games going UNDER. The Bulldogs are a perfect 4-0 ATS in this year’s tournament, all as underdogs. Last year, Butler was 5-1 (83%) both SU and ATS in the tourney. The Bulldogs were actually favored in three of their tournament games last year, including the national semifinal against Michigan State in which they covered the 1.5 spread in a 52-50 victory over the Spartans. They were 2-1 overall as a favorite, failing to cover against Murray State in the second round after easily covering against UTEP in their opener.

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NCAA Odds: Kentucky, UConn fight in Final Four

The Connecticut Huskies and Kentucky Wildcats meet for the second time this season, this one in Saturday’s Final Four for a chance to play for the national title.

The Don Best odds screen has Kentucky as 2 ½-point favorites with a total of 140-points. CBS will have the coverage at 5:45 p.m. (PT) from Reliant Stadium in Houston.

The Wildcats are the remaining favorite with all the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds gone. They’re plus 140 at Bookmaker.com, followed by Connecticut (plus 190) and bracket-busters Butler (plus 365) and VCU (plus 450).

Kentucky lost badly to Connecticut (84-67) in the November Maui Invitational final. Kemba Walker had 29 points for then-unranked Connecticut and big man Alex Oriakhi added 18 points and 11 rebounds, out-shooting eighth-ranked Kentucky 58-37 percent.

Maui made a lot of believers of the Huskies and they zoomed up to No. 7 in the AP rankings the following week. Still, few predicted this pairing as recently as a week ago with Connecticut a No. 3 seed from the West Region and Kentucky a No. 4 from the East.

Kentucky (29-8 straight-up, 16-15-1 against the spread) is looking for its eighth national championship, the first since 1998. Coach John Calipari has never won a national title, losing the 2008 final to Kansas in OT while with Memphis. He also made the Final Four with UMass in 1996.

Calipari has his share of detractors, mostly due to his rule infractions, but his ability to recruit and coach is not in doubt. He led Kentucky to the Elite Eight last year and then saw five guys leave as NBA first-round picks including stars John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins and Patrick Patterson.

That would have decimated other programs, but Calipari added three dynamic freshmen in Brandon Knight (17.3 PPG), Terrence Jones (15.8 PPG) and Doron Lamb (12.3 PPG).

Those diaper dandies are the Wildcats’ three leading scorers and have developed nicely since the first Connecticut game. However, it’s been the recent play of upperclassmen Darius Miller, DeAndre Liggins and Josh Harrellson that’s spurred them to the Final Four.

Harrellson had 17 points and Liggins 15 in the 62-60 Sweet Sixteen upset over top-seed Ohio State as 5 ½-point ‘dogs. Liggins also hit a key three-pointer with 37 seconds left in Kentucky’s 76-69 Elite Eight win over No. 2 seed North Carolina as 1 ½-point ‘chalk.’ Knight led with 22 points as his streaky play continues, but all five starters were in the double-digits.

The senior Harrellson is not that talented, but he’s battled hard against big men Jared Sullinger and Tyler Zeller the last two games. He needs to keep Oriakhi off the glass and keep him honest defensively. Harrellson has plenty of motivation after scoring no points in the Maui meeting.

The Huskies (30-9 SU, 21-12 ATS) are on a nine-game winning streak (8-1 ATS) that began with winning the Big East Tournament as a ninth seed. Coach Jim Calhoun is looking for his third national title, with the others coming in 1999 and 2004.

Walker is a first team All-American with averages of 23.9 PPG, 5.3 RPG and 4.5 APG. He’s upped his scoring to 26.8 PPG during March Madness, but this is far from a one-man wrecking crew anymore.

Walker scored just 20 points against Arizona in the Elite Eight. He was 1-of-7 from three-point land and 7-of-17 overall. The Huskies would have likely lost that game earlier this year with Walker’s numbers, but they still won 65-63, although failing to ‘cover’ the 3 ½-points.

Freshman Jeremy Lamb (11.1 PPG) excelled with 19 points against Arizona, including some huge baskets down the stretch. He has a nice mid-range game and he’s really stepped up his play during this tournament (18.3 PPG).

The ‘under’ is 3-1 for Connecticut during March Madness, scoring 72.3 PPG and allowing 60 PPG. San Diego State (74-67 win) in the Sweet 16 is the only game to go ‘over.’

The big question for Saturday is whether Walker can be contained. The 6-foot-6 Liggins will get most of the defensive assignments and he has a five-inch height advantage. Calhoun does a good job of moving Walker around from point to shooting guard to free up looks.

Kentucky did a great job defensively against Ohio State (32.8 percent shooting) and North Carolina (43.5 percent) and will put forth another great effort here.

Neither team is reporting any significant injuries.

The national title game will be Monday night with the winner getting Butler (minus 2 ½) or VCU.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAA Tournament Odds: Butler Bulldogs, VCU Rams collide


The favorites are all gone. None of the first or second seeds are heading to Houston this weekend for the Final Four, no doubt to the dismay of CBS.

Madness, indeed.

In a tournament rife with upsets, it's only fitting that the two schools tipping the Final Four are the ones that did the most work to overturn status quo. Cue the "Hoosiers" soundtrack for the Virginia Commonwealth Rams and Butler Bulldogs who get underway a little past 3:00 p.m. (PT) Saturday on CBS.

Butler opened as a 2½-point favorite with the total at 133.

Oddsmakers have the Bulldogs at plus 360 to go on from this game to win Monday night's championship tilt. The Rams are plus 460 to complete their most unlikely run through the NCAA Tournament.

The sports books see this semifinal game as just a prelim to the real title tilt between Kentucky, favorites at plus 140, and UConn (plus 190) who will play Saturday's nightcap (5:45 p.m. PT).

Silly sports books. Haven't they learned anything at all this March? This matchup, the Rams and Bulldogs, is the real championship.

Brad Stevens and the Bulldogs made a remarkable run through the Southeast Region, knocking off the first-, second- and fourth-seeded teams along the way. Underdogs in all four tournament games, last Saturday's win in the regional final was Butler's lucky 13th straight to punch a return ticket to the Final Four.

As extraordinary as the Bulldogs have been, Shaka Smart and VCU have been one of the greatest stories in tournament history, let alone this year's event. The team that was never even supposed to get an invite to this year's dance is now a win away from playing for it all.

The Rams, like the Bulldogs, have been underdogs throughout the madness starting with their First Four contest versus USC. VCU's five-game assault on the court and at the NCAA odds window has seen 1-, 3-, 6-, 10- and 11-seeds fall to the wayside.

As impressive as their takedowns of both Georgetown and Purdue were, the Rams saved their best – so far – for last Sunday with a 71-61 whipping of Kansas, the final top seed left in the tournament. The final score wasn't indicative of how convincingly Virginia Commonwealth busted the Jayhawks and truly rocked chalk as underdogs of 11½.

Forget all of the talk about Kansas choking that one more than VCU winning it. The Jayhawks simply got outplayed everywhere but on the glass. Bill Self's crew knew it had to defend against the three, and KU didn't get that done. The Rams hit nearly half their long-range heaves (12-of-25) while the Jayhawks were a pathetic 2-of-21 from three-point range trying to recover once VCU built its lead.

Stevens and the Bulldogs almost have to be feeling like the next big program in line for VCU's rampaging ways despite this being a matchup with another mid-major. While the Rams have skated to three of their five wins by double-digit margins, Butler's four victories have been by a combined 13 points.

Seven points in that gap came in one game, the 61-54 victory over Wisconsin in the Sweet 16, the 'easiest' of Butler's games after building a 20-point lead over the Badgers midway through the second half.

There hasn't been anything pretty about Butler's wins in the boxscores. The Bulldogs have shot progressively worse from all areas on the court since escaping with the 71-70 win versus Pittsburgh to advance to the Sweet 16. Florida had fewer turnovers, more steals and blocks, hit its free throws at a higher rate and shot better from the field overall in the SE Regional Final. Still, Butler won the game in overtime, 74-71.

Holding Florida to just one field goal the last six-plus minutes of regulation and working the offensive glass the entire game, especially late, pushed the Bulldogs to Houston.

Virginia Commonwealth will be Butler's second CAA opponent this tourney, the other Old Dominion to open the dance. The Bulldogs got a late layup from Matt Howard to keep that game from heading into overtime, 60-58.

ODU got the better of VCU twice in three games this season, cashing both wins at the window. That included a 70-65 win in the conference championship on March 7 as 4½-point favorites.

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Butler vs. VCU

April 2, 2011

In what is undoubtedly the most unlikely matchup in Final Four history, a pair of mid-major programs in Butler and Virginia Commonwealth will collide Saturday night at Reliant Stadium for the right to play in the national-championship game Monday in Houston.

As of early this morning, most betting shops were listing Butler (27-9 straight up, 19-13-2 against the spread) as a 2 ½-point favorite with a total of 133. Gamblers can take the Rams to win outright for a plus-125 return (risk $100 to win $125).

Brad Stevens’ teams advanced to its second straight Final Four thanks to a thrilling overtime win over Florida in the Southeast Region finals at New Orleans Arena last Saturday. Trailing by double digits in the final nine minutes, the Bulldogs rallied to force the extra session and then prevailed by a 74-71 count as four-point underdogs.

Bettors taking Butler on the money line brought home a plus-160 payout (paid $160 on $100 wagers). Even better, Bulldog backers cashed a plus-180 ticket in a Sweet 16 win over Wisconsin.

Junior guard Shelvin Mack was the catalyst against the Gators, scoring a game-high 27 points to go with four rebounds and four assists. Matt Howard added 14 points and five boards, while reserve senior guard Zach Hahn came off the bench to drain a pair of timely 3-pointers when it appeared UF was about to pull away.

Butler has won 13 consecutive games, posting a 9-3-1 spread record in the process. The Bulldogs, who have covered the number in six straight, have played three nail-biters in its four tournament games.

Howard’s putback layup at the buzzer lifted his team over Old Dominion in the opening round. Then in Round 2 (I’m obviously not using this second and third-round lingo pertaining to the first weekend since the field was expanded to 68), Howard’s game-winning free throw with 0.8 seconds remaining was the difference against top-seeded Pittsburgh.

VCU (28-11 SU, 18-20 ATS) has been the best team in the tournament to date, winning four of its five games by double-digit margins. The Rams beat Southern Cal by 13 in Dayton and then destroyed Georgetown and Purdue by 18 points apiece.

In the Sweet 16 round, Shaka Smart’s team won a 72-71 decision over Florida St. in overtime. VCU knocked off the Seminoles as a four-point underdog, cashing plus-160 tickets for money-line bets.

Bradford Burgess buried 6-of-7 from 3-point range en route to scoring a game-high 26 points, while Brandon Rozzell had 16 points from off the bench. With VCU trailing by one, Burgess scored the game-winning bucket off an inbounds play with seven seconds remaining.

Smart’s team was tabbed as an 11 ½-point underdog in its Elite Eight showdown against top-seeded Kansas. But the Rams had their way from the get-go, racing out to an 18-point lead in the first half. They would see their lead get dwindled down to two late in the second half, only to respond with a 9-2 run to put the Jayhawks away by a 71-61 score.

Jamie Skeen, the transfer from Wake Forest, scored 26 points and pulled down 10 rebounds. Once again, Rozzell was instant offense off the bench with 12 points on four 3-pointers.

There was nothing fluky about any of VCU’s wins. Joey Rodriguez, the senior point guard who nearly transferred when Anthony Grant left to take the Alabama job, has done a terrific job of making plays off the dribble. Rodriguez has a 38/10 assists-to-turnover ratio in the tournament, constantly creating easy looks for Skeen, Burgess and Rozzell.

With this in mind, the most important matchup of the game could be Ronald Nored’s defense against Rodriguez. It says here that Nored is the nation’s premier on-the-ball defender, so Rodriguez will have his hands full. Nored gave Florida PG Erving Walker fits last Saturday, forcing him into an abysmal 1-for-10 shooting performance. Wisconsin’s Jordan Taylor had similar problems, going 6-of-19 from the field while committing twice as many turnovers (four) as he had assists (two).

As much as VCU is stroking perimeter jumpers galore with outstanding accuracy, Butler is doing an equally effective job of defending the 3-point line. The Gators made just 3-of-14 from long range, while Wisconsin went just 7-for-29 with most of those makes coming in the last two minutes when the game was already out of reach.

Both teams have been underdogs in each of their previous tournament games. For the year, VCU owns a stellar 11-4 spread record in 15 underdog situations. Likewise, Butler has thrived as a single-digit ‘chalk’ with a 9-4-1 ATS mark.

The ‘over’ is 19-14-1 overall for Butler, but it has seen the ‘under’ cash in seven of its last 10 games. Meanwhile, totals have been an overall wash for VCU (18-18).

CBS will have the telecast at 6:05 p.m. Eastern.

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UConn vs. Kentucky

April 2, 2011

The longest Final Four drought in Kentucky’s storied basketball history will come to an end Saturday night at Reliant Stadium in Houston, where the Wildcats will take on Connecticut for a berth in Monday’s national-title game.

Most books are listing Kentucky (29-8 straight up, 16-15-1 against the spread) as a two-point favorite with a total of 140. Gamblers can take the Huskies on the money line for a plus-120 payout (risk $100 to win $120).

John Calipari’s team is back in the national semifinals for the first time since 1998 thanks to wins over Princeton, West Virginia, Ohio State and North Carolina. The ‘Cats captured a 76-69 win over UNC last Sunday as 1 ½-point favorites.

Brandon Knight was the catalyst against the Tar Heels, producing 22 points, seven rebounds, four assists and three steals while playing all 40 minutes. All five UK starters scored in double figures including senior center Josh Harrelson, who finished with 12 points, eight boards, four assists, two steals and one blocked shot.

Kentucky got to the Elite Eight by knocking off top-seeded Ohio St. in the Sweet 16 round. The ‘Cats won a 62-60 decision as six-point underdogs, hooking up money-line backers with a payout that was north of plus-200 at most spots.

Knight buried his second game winner of the tournament when he hit a pull-up jumper with 5.4 seconds remaining. He pulled a similar feat in UK’s 59-57 win over Princeton in the opening round.

Harrelson came up big against the Buckeyes, scoring 17 points and pulling down 10 rebounds. DeAndre Liggins provided a huge spark off the bench with 15 points and six boards.

UConn (30-9 SU, 21-12 ATS) won its ninth straight game and earned a trip to Houston with a 67-65 triumph over Arizona in the West Region finals last Saturday night in Anaheim. However, the Huskies’ eight-game ATS surge ended when a late rally gave ‘Zona a backdoor cover as a three-point underdog.

As usual, Kemba Walker paced the winners with 20 points, seven assists and four rebounds. Jeremy Lamb added 19 points.

Walker’s play in the postseason, including five wins at MSG in the Big East Tournament, has been nothing short of sensational. In fact, if he can carry the Huskies to two more victories, his heroics will go down in NCAA lore right next those of Carmelo Anthony (‘Cuse, circa 2003) and Danny Manning (Kansas, 1988).

Jim Calhoun is gunning for his third national championship, but this team’s run has to be one of the most enjoyable of his spectacular career. Before Walker led this squad to victory in three straight games at the Maui Classic, UConn had minimal expectations this year.

But after their success in Maui and a fast start in Big East play, the sky appeared to be the limit for the Huskies. However, a slump late in the regular season sent expectations south all over again. But since then, Walker and Lamb have led UConn to nine straight wins, including victories over Bucknell, Cincinnati and San Diego St. in the tourney.

When these schools squared off at the Lahaina Civic Center on Feb. 24, it was all UConn all the time. The Huskies cruised to a 50-29 lead at intermission and were never threatened again, winning 84-67 as 4 ½-point underdogs.

Walker went off with 29 points and six assists, while Alex Oriakhi had a double-double with 18 points, 11 rebounds and three blocked shots.

We should point out that this loss, the only double-digit defeat UK would take all season, was before it was getting any significant contributions from Harrelson, who went scoreless in 25 minutes of playing time. Knight struggled as well, finishing with six points, five assists and five turnovers. The freshman PG missed all eight of his 3-point attempts and was 3-of-15 from the field.

In the losing effort, Terrence Jones scored a game-high 24 points even though foul trouble limited the freshman to 27 minutes of playing time. Miller was also in double figures with 15 points.

The underdog role has been one that UConn backers have enjoyed. In 13 such spots, the Huskies have cashed tickets at a lucrative 10-3 ATS clip with nine outright victories. Meanwhile, the ‘Cats are a mediocre 8-10-1 ATS when listed as single-digit ‘chalk.’

The ‘under’ is 18-14-1 overall for UConn, 4-1 in its last five games. The ‘under’ is on a 7-1-1 run in UK’s last nine games and has gone 18-11-3 overall for the season.

This game will tip approximately 35 minutes after the Butler-VCU game concludes.