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**StarDust Bum** · 03-28-2011, 11:33 PM

Alabama takes on Colorado in NIT betting action

Alec Burks and the Buffs are two-point ’dogs to the Alabama Crimson Tide.
While the big boys in the big dance are all headed into the Final Four this weekend, the NIT is just getting revved up with its Final Four as well.

Madison Square Garden will be the site for the Tuesday night clash between the Colorado Buffaloes and the Alabama Crimson Tide.

Tip-off is set for approximately 6:25 p.m. (PT), and the game can be seen nationally on ESPN2 following the other half of the NIT semifinals, Wichita State and Washington State.

Colorado stormed through three games in Boulder to reach this point, and it definitely has proven worthy of being here in the NIT's version of the Final Four. The offense has come alive again, putting up at least 81 in all three efforts. That gives the Buffs a scoring average of 83.7 PPG over the course of their last nine games, including the NIT and the Big XII Tournament.

This is still one of the best offenses nationally, ranking No. 11 in the land at 80.1 PPG for the season. CU is shooting 47.5 percent from the field as a team, and 37.4 percent from beyond the arc. It also makes teams pay at the charity stripe, where it ranks No. 5 in the land at 77.6 percent as a team.

Alec Burks has been on absolute fire of late. Since the Big XII Tournament, he has averaged 25.5 PPG and 8.2 RPG, and he also has 14 steals to show for his work defensively. Burks and Cory Higgins are the two machines that really make the train go in Boulder, combining to score 36.6 PPG for the season.

Just like Colorado, Alabama is licking wounds sustained by being left out of the NCAA Tournament by beating the snot out of teams in the NIT. None of the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers, New Mexico Lobos and Miami Hurricanes stood a chance of coming into Tuscaloosa and winning, and the Tide have a 2-0-1 mark on the NCAA basketball odds to show for it.

JaMychal Green hasn't had the best tournament in the world with the 14 points he scored against Miami last week was his best performance of the NIT, but he could be rejuvenated by the decision he made to come back to Tuscaloosa for his senior season. Green is averaging 15.4 PPG, and he is the man that really has to step up to the plate to bring this team to a championship level in this tournament.

Keep a close eye on Senario Hillman as well. Hillman is one of the bench players that is often used to spot 12-15 minutes per game, but in this tournament, he has been used and used extensively, and he has been very effective. Hillman put up 17 against the 'Canes in the 15-point romp, and he has averaged 11.0 PPG in this tournament, over four points per game more than his scoring average for the season.

This should be quite the interesting contrast between these two sides, as Colorado obviously loves to get up and run, while Alabama is holding teams under 60 PPG for the season. The oddsmakers seem to be a bit puzzled about what to do with these two teams that saw their bubbles burst two Sundays ago, as they have lined the Tide at minus two. The 'total' has been set at 142 ½.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-28-2011, 11:34 PM

NHL Betting: Pittsburgh Penguins meet Flyers

The ’under’ is 4-1 in five meetings between the Pen and Flyers this season.

The top spot in the Atlantic Division will be up for grabs Tuesday when the first-place Philadelphia Flyers and the second-place Pittsburgh Penguins hook up for their sixth and final regular season meeting. The puck drops from Pittsburgh’s Consol Energy Center at 4 p.m. (PT).

There has been a definite pattern to the first five meetings between these two Pennsylvania rivals. The visiting team has captured four of the first five matchups, with the ‘under’ also cashing on four occasions.

Despite the visiting team’s recent success, the overnight line made by Sports Club has Pittsburgh as a 140 home favorite. The total is set at 5 ½ ‘under’ (minus 130).

The two previous meetings in Pittsburgh both resulted in identical 3-2 Philadelphia victories. The Oct. 7 match saw the Flyers close as 155 road underdogs, with the combined five goals slithering ‘under’ the six-goal closing total.

Two weeks later, the Flyers repeated the feat as 115 road underdogs. The ‘under’ cashed once more when the total again closed at six goals.

In fact, the ‘under’ is 7-2 in the last nine series meetings in Pittsburgh. However, the two Flyers’ wins are not the norm. The Penguins are 17-6 in the last 23 home games against the Flyers.

Pittsburgh has captured two of the three meetings in Philadelphia this season, and has outscored the Flyers 7-2 during the two victories.

The Penguins have gone 6-for-25 on the power play during the five meetings, while the Flyers are 4-for-23. Pittsburgh has also outshot Philadelphia, 145-138.

Peter Laviolette’s Flyers are off Sunday’s 2-1 loss against the Boston Bruins as 115 home favorites. The setback, Philadelphia’s third in its last four games, left the squad two points ahead of the Penguins and Capitals for the Eastern Conference’s best record.

The combined three goals dipped below the 5 ½-goal closing total, allowing the ‘under’ to cash in the last three Flyers’ games. The ‘under’ is now 43-32 in Philadelphia’s first 75 overall outings and 21-16 in its first 37 road dates.

Kris Versteeg was responsible for the lone goal against the Bruins, and it allowed the Flyers’ forward to reach the 20-goal plateau for the third time in four seasons.

Brian Boucher, who stopped 34 shots in a losing effort, saw his ledger dip to 17-9-4 with a 2.39 GAA and .917 save percentage in 32 appearances.

Sergei Bobrovski has been between the Flyers’ pipes 48 times and has a 27-11-3-3 record with a 2.53 GAA and .917 save percentage. Neither netminder has registered a shutout.

Pittsburgh set an NHL record Sunday by recording its fourth straight shootout victory. This time, it was a 2-1 success against the Florida Panthers as a hefty 215 home favorite.

The combined three goals ducked below the five-goal closing total, allowing the ‘under’ to cash in Pittsburgh’s last three contests. In fact, the ‘under’ is now 13-3-1 in the Pens’ last 17 home efforts and 47-26-3 overall.

Dan Bylsma’s Penguins have allowed one goal or less in six of their last nine games, which has helped lift their defense into sixth place at 2.4 goals against per game. Much of the stellar defense can be attributed to Pittsburgh’s top-rated penalty kill, which has an 86.3 percent success rate.

Goalie Marc-Andre Fleury, who is on an 11-game winning streak, was once again unbeatable in the shootout. He has allowed just one goal on nine attempts in the past three shootouts. Fleury improved his record to 34-18-3-2 with a 2.28 GAA and a .920 save percentage.

Left winger James Neal put the exclamation point on the victory by notching his third shootout-clinching goal in the past week.

It’s well known that the Pens are enjoying this success without Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby, but they also have other injury concerns entering Tuesday’s contest.

Center Mark Letestu (shoulder), left wing Dustin Jeffery (knee) and backup goalie Brent Johnson (neck) are all listed as “questionable” on the Don Best Sports injury report.

Philadelphia returns home Thursday against the Atlanta Thrashers, while Pittsburgh travels to Tampa Bay for Thursday’s outing against the Lightning.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-28-2011, 11:35 PM

NBA Odds: LeBron James, Miami Heat back in Cleveland

All three Cavaliers, Heat matchups this season have gone ’over’ the total.
LeBron James returns to Cleveland for the second time since his unceremonious departure as the Miami Heat visit the Cavaliers on Tuesday night.

NBA-TV will have the 4 p.m. (PT) broadcast from Quicken Loans Arena.

Miami is 3-0 straight up and 2-1 against the spread against the Cavs this year. That includes the first meeting back in Cleveland on Dec. 2. James brushed off the jeers of his former fans to explode for 38 points, winning 118-90 in a blowout as 5 ½-point favorites.

The Heat won the two home meetings since then (1-1 ATS), 101-95 as 16 ½-point favorites on Dec. 15 and 117-90 as 17 ½-point ‘chalk’ on Jan. 31. James was far more mortal in those contests with 45 total points, while his buddy Dwyane Wade poured in 62.

The ‘over’ is 3-0 in the three meetings between the teams.

As good as those wins made James feel, especially given the vitriol Cavs’ owner Dan Gilbert has shown him, the Heat (51-22 SU, 34-38-1 ATS) have more important things to worry about. They trail Chicago by 2.5 games for first place in the Eastern Conference and Boston by a half-game for second.

Miami has won five straight and is 8-1 since an awful five-game losing streak. The last game was a 125-119 home win over Houston on Sunday. James, Wade and Chris Bosh each hit the 30-point plateau, combining for 94. The game stayed close as Miami’s ‘D’ made the trio of Kyle Lowry, Kevin Martin and Luis Scola look like All-Stars (82 combined points).

The 244 combined points scored made a mockery of the 208 ½-point total. The ‘over’ is 2-0 in Miami’s last two games after the ‘under’ was 4-1 in the previous five.

Miami failed to ‘cover’ as eight favorites against Houston and is just 2-3 ATS during this current winning streak.

Starting point guard Mike Bibby had 14 points last game. He scored just eight total points in the first two games as a starter after Mario Chalmers’ injury (knee). Either Bibby or bench sharpshooter Mike Miller (questionable Tuesday, knee injury) need to develop into a consistent scorer behind the ‘Big 3.’

Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games, 23-12 SU and 19-15-1 ATS this year. The team has played just three road tilts in its last 15 games.

The Cavaliers (14-58 SU, 29-41-2 ATS) have the NBA’s worst record and should get the top draft pick. They also own an unprotected selection from the L.A. Clippers (currently eighth) for the recent Baron Davis and Mo Williams swap.

Cleveland did get a 97-91 home win over Detroit last Friday, but then lost to Atlanta at home on Sunday (99-83). The offense is scoring just 86.4 PPG the last 11 games (2-9 SU, 4-7 ATS). The ‘under’ is 8-0 in Cleveland’s last eight and 10-1 in the last 11.

Coach Byron Scott has a roster that resembles the NBA Development League. Alonzo Gee and Ryan Hollins are starters for a team that was a perennial title contender before James went to South Beach. More recognizable names like Anderson Varejao and Antawn Jamison are likely both out for the year.

Scott is relying on starters J.J Hickson (13 PPG) and Ramon Sessions (12.7 PPG) for offense. Davis is averaging 15.3 PPG in six games coming off the bench. Samardo Samuels can also be effective off the pine, but he’s out Tuesday (wrist).

Cleveland is 2-6 ATS in its last eight home games, 9-28 SU and 14-22-1 ATS on the year. The crowd won’t be nearly as vocal as the first James’ meeting and will be happy to see the Cavs just make it competitive.

Miami continues its four-game trip Wednesday in Washington, while Cleveland starts a three-game road trip the same night in Charlotte.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-28-2011, 11:35 PM

NBA Odds: Futures value with Bulls, Lakers

Atop the Eastern Conference standings, Chicago is getting 5/1 to win the NBA title.
The Boston Celtics in the East and the San Antonio Spurs in the West have been the front runners in the NBA for the better part of the season. Now, with less than three weeks to go before the playoffs fire up, things appear to be as wide open as ever in both conferences.

Boston has lost five of its last 10 games and the Celtics suddenly find themselves in second place in the Eastern Conference standings, two games behind Chicago and just a half-game ahead of Miami. The Spurs have lost three straight with Tim Duncan out of the lineup nursing an ankle injury and are now just four games ahead of the Los Angeles Lakers in the Westestern Conference.

Stepping up to the plate to fill the void have been the Bulls and Lakers, who are both 9-1 SU in their last 10 games. Also making their presence felt are the Heat and the Oklahoma City Thunder who are a combined 17-3 SU in their last 20 games.

Looking at the current odds to win this year’s title, it is time to sort through the numbers to find where the value is.

The defending world champion Lakers remain the odds-on favorite at plus 250 to successfully defend their title. A few weeks back there was absolutely no value in these odds given the way LA was stumbling through the regular season. The wake-up call was a 104-99 loss to Cleveland as an 11-point road favorite right before the All-Star break.

Since that point the Lakers have gone 17-1 SU to leave little doubt that they are still the team to beat in the NBA. Phil Jackson's squad now has its sights set on the top spot in the Western Conference and the best record in the league to ensure home field advantage throughout the playoffs. With everyone happy and healthy in LA, it is hard to bet against the Lakers no matter how thin the odds.

Miami is the second favorite at plus 325 and remains the most intriguing team in the league. Just when you think that all the star power in South Beach is ready to implode, these guys get their act together and start playing up to their incredible capabilities.

The Heat bounced back from a five-game skid to start the month of March to win eight of their last nine games, including five straight victories in which they scored 100 points or more. This team will certainly be a factor in the postseason, but has yet to show a consistency that is needed to win it all. This may develop in the early rounds of the playoffs, but the value is just not there at the current odds.

The value in the Eastern Conference has to be with Chicago at plus 500. The Bulls have vaulted to the top spot in the conference with 15 wins in their last 17 games. They are 53-19 SU overall and 32-4 SU at home.

If Chicago can hold onto the No.1 seed in the East, it will be very hard to beat with home-court advantage clearly in its favor. Derrick Rose continues a strong campaign for league MVP and as long as Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah remain healthy, this team has a great chance to compete for a title.

If you are looking for a bit of a reach, then go with Oklahoma City at plus 1800 as your dark horse to win it all. The Thunder have Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook which is enough to keep them competitive against any other team in the league.

Oklahoma City also looks ready for the postseason with 12 wins in its last 14 games. It will most likely start the postseason as the fourth seed in the West and would easily qualify as the team that nobody would want to face in the early rounds. The Thunder took the Lakers to six games in last year’s playoffs and are a much better team this time around

**StarDust Bum** · 03-28-2011, 11:36 PM

Philadelphia Phillies lead 2011 MLB odds board

Oddsmakers expect to see a Phillies, Red Sox World Series in 2011.
The baseball regular season begins on the last day of March and extends all the way through October. The 162-game season will eventually separate the contenders from the pretenders, but hope springs eternal this time of year.

The usual suspects are atop the list as World Series favorites, but defending champion San Francisco is not one of those teams. The Giants, capturing their first World Series since 1954 when the team was located in New York City, enter the fray at 15/1 to repeat as champions.

San Francisco won the National League West last season when San Diego suffered a late-season swoon. The Giants rode that momentum to an unexpected title, and pitching will be their strong point once again. The starting rotation consists of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumbarner, while closer Brian Wilson enters the season dealing with a strained oblique muscle.

The favorite to win this year’s World Series is Philadelphia at 3/1 behind baseball’s best starting rotation. The Phillies captured the Fall Classic in 2008, and advanced to the 2009 World Series before falling to the New York Yankees.

The old adage says that pitching wins championships, and no team has a better stable of hurlers than Philadelphia. The Phillies’ starting rotation consists of three Cy Young Award winners in Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt, and a World Series MVP winner in Cole Hamels. Closer Brad Lidge was solid last season with 27 saves and a 2.96 ERA.

American League East rivals Boston and New York are next on the list, and figure on battling throughout the campaign once again. The Red Sox (9/2) are slightly ahead of the Yankees (5/1) entering the season. There was a slight shift in the AL East power structure last year with Tampa Bay winning the division, while New York captured the wild-card.

Boston finished in third place with an 89-73 record, but figure on making a serious run for its third World Series title since 2004. The Red Sox improved their team in the offseason with the acquisition of outfielder Carl Crawford and first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. Boston also bolstered an already impressive pitching staff by adding Bobby Jenks as a setup man to closer Jonathan Papelbon.

New York will try to capture this year’s World Series by brute force. ‘The Bronx Bombers’ will have to outscore teams this season because the pitching staff is in shambles. Outside of ace CC Sabathia, the starting rotation consists of Phil Hughes and AJ Burnett, and the loss of retired Andy Pettitte damages the Yankees’ title aspirations. But since this is New York, expect the team to land a quality arm before the trading deadline in late July.

St. Louis, Texas and Minnesota check in at 20/1 to win this year’s World Series. These three teams offer enticing odds from squads that have a realistic shot of cashing your ticket at the end of the year.

The Cardinals figure on contending for the NL Central crown once again behind baseballs best player in Albert Pujols. Meanwhile, the Rangers advanced to their first World Series last year, and still have slugger Josh Hamilton. The Twins won last year’s AL Central, and will be a force once again with catcher Joe Mauer and first baseman Justin Morneau in the lineup.

Four teams saddled with 25/1 odds of winning the Fall Classic include Cincinnati, Atlanta, Tampa Bay and Colorado. These teams would have to have all the breaks fall their way to capture the crown, but didn’t San Francisco use that formula to last year’s World Series victory?

It is always interesting to keep an eye on the longest shots on the board, this year highlighted by Pittsburgh at 500/1. The Pirates enter the 2011 campaign with the longest losing streak of any professional sports franchise in North America at 18 years. Figure on that number to reach 19, and for Pittsburgh to be mathematically eliminated shortly after the all-star break.

Baltimore, Milwaukee and Arizona are all 100/1 to win the World Series, while Seattle and Washington are 125/1. Cleveland and Kansas City check in at 200/1 to shock the baseball establishment.

Before laughing off these long shot teams, remember that football’s St. Louis Rams won Super Bowl XXXV as a 200/1 preseason selection. Now all these baseball squads have to do is locate the next Kurt Warner to win 20 games or hit the curveball.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-29-2011, 12:02 AM

Tuesday, March 29

Game Score Status Pick Amount

NY Mets - 12:05 PM ET Washington -107 500
Washington -

Detroit - 1:05 PM ET Detroit +123 500
NY Yankees -

Tampa Bay - 1:05 PM ET Tampa Bay +123 500
Boston -

Toronto - 1:05 PM ET Baltimore -113 500
Baltimore -

Chi. White Sox - 3:05 PM ET Kansas City -113 500
Kansas City -

Cincinnati - 3:05 PM ET Cincinnati +102 500
Cleveland -

Milwaukee - 3:05 PM ET Milwaukee +100 500
San Diego -

Seattle - 4:10 PM ET Seattle +113 500
Colorado -

Minnesota - 7:05 PM ET Atlanta -129 500
Atlanta -

Pittsburgh - 7:05 PM ET Pittsburgh +166 500
Philadelphia -

LA Dodgers - 10:05 PM ET LA Angels -124 500
LA Angels -

San Francisco - 10:05 PM ET San Francisco +112 500
Oakland -

**StarDust Bum** · 03-29-2011, 01:39 PM

James leads sizzling Heat into Cleveland

MIAMI HEAT (51-22)

at CLEVELAND CAVALIERS (14-58)

Tip-off: Tuesday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Miami -13, Total: 197.5

LeBron James plays his second game in Cleveland since leaving town, when the red-hot Heat visit the lowly Cavaliers Tuesday night. Miami has won five straight games and eight of its past nine contests, while Cleveland is 2-9 in its past 11 games.

James has averaged 27.7 PPG on 50% FG with 7.3 RPG and 7.0 APG in three games versus the Cavs this season. He scored 38 points with eight assists in his first visit to Cleveland on Dec. 2, a 118-90 victory. James has also been sizzling during Miami’s current win streak, averaging 32.0 PPG on 63% FG. In Sunday’s 125-119 win versus Houston, James had 33 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists, while teammates Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh also excelled. Bosh torched the Rockets for 31 points and 12 rebounds, and Wade pumped in 30 points, 11 rebounds and five assists.

The biggest reason Cleveland has lost all three meetings with Miami by an average of 20.3 PPG is its poor shooting (39% FG, 31% 3-pt FG). The Cavs have also shot below 40% in seven of their past 11 games, including 37% FG in Sunday’s 99-83 home loss to Atlanta. Baron Davis hasn’t faced Miami as a member of Cleveland yet, but he is finally starting to look healthy with 35 points and 12 assists in 47 minutes over the past two games.

Miami is 6-10-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite and nearly lost outright the only time it was favored by 10+ points on the road, beating Washington 95-94 on Dec. 18 as 12-point favorite. The Heat are also 5-11 ATS (41%) in their past 16 games overall and 29-34 ATS (46%) when favored with any spread this season. The Cavs haven’t been a great bet this year at home (14-22, 39%), but they are a stellar 8-2-1 ATS in their past 11 games a double-digit underdog. I think Miami will win, but Cleveland will keep it close and cover.

The FoxSheets provides two more reasons to choose the Cavs:

Play On - Underdogs of 10 or more points (CLEVELAND) - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more 2 straight games. (47-19 since 1996.) (71.2%, +26.1 units. Rating = 2*).

Play On - Underdogs (CLEVELAND) - poor defensive team - shooting pct defense of >=46% on the season against opponent hot shooting team - 5 straight games making >=47% of their shots. (58-30 over the last 5 seasons.) (65.9%, +25 units. Rating = 2*).

Seventeen of the past 25 games (68%) in this series played in Cleveland have finished Under the total, but this FoxSheets trend sides with Over for Tuesday’s matchup.

Play Over - Any team (MIAMI) - average defensive team (92-98 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=102 PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 110 points or more. (75-41 since 1996.) (64.7%, +29.9 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-29-2011, 01:40 PM

Kings go for 4th straight win hosting struggling Suns

PHOENIX SUNS (36-36)

at SACRAMENTO KINGS (20-52)

Tip-off: Tuesday, 10:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Phoenix -1, Total: 213.5

Suddenly, Sacramento is a team to be reckoned with.

Seemingly playing out the string with star player Tyreke Evans hampered by a foot injury, the Kings have instead strung together a season-high, three-game winning streak, with all of the wins coming on the road (at Milwaukee, Indiana and Philadelphia).

A lot of the credit goes to combo guard Marcus Thornton. Acquired at the trade deadline, Thornton stepped into the starting lineup for an injured Evans on March 5 and has since averaged 22.3 PPG while hitting 44.1% of his threes. Talented, but often-troubled, rookie big man DeMarcus Cousins stepped into the starting lineup when Thornton did. While shot selection has been an issue (42.0% shooting from the field for a 6-foot-11, 270-pounder), he’s given a solid effort overall, going for 15.2 PPG and 10.3 RPG. And veteran center Samuel Dalembert, healthy again (and surely aware that he’s in a contract year) has stepped up as well, averaging 15.6 PPG on 53.7% shooting and 12.4 RPG over his past nine games. Evans has returned to action, but is playing limited minutes off the bench. Since Thornton and Cousins moved into the starting lineup, the Kings are 8-5 ATS.

The Kings’ recent hot streak is another bad break for Phoenix, who could really use an easy W as it slips out of the Western Conference playoff picture. The Suns had a disastrous homestand last week, beating Toronto before dropping back-to-back games to New Orleans and Dallas.

The Suns have also lost their past two meetings with the Kings, including a 113-108 home loss on Feb. 13 against a short-handed Sacramento team that only played eight players (and only seven for more than seven minutes of action). Phoenix was outrebounded by an average of 55.5 to 34.0 in those games.

Steve Nash continues to look like a run-down shell of his former self. During last week’s homestand, he shot just 32.3% from the field and made 2-of-7 threes. Vince Carter continues to be a non-factor on his best days (5-for-18 shooting in those three games). Carter played just 10 minutes against New Orleans then was mercifully relegated to a reserve role against Dallas, scoring just three points off the bench.

But there are some glimmers of hope for the Suns. Phoenix would be completely sunk if not for the efforts of big man Marcin Gortat (17.7 PPG, 11.0 RPG over those three games). Jared Dudley (16.7 PPG) and back-up point guard Aaron Brooks (17.0 PPG on 57.6% shooting) were also impressive last week. And Phoenix has been good on the road of late. While the Suns have dropped five of their past seven road games SU, they’ve been competitive, going 5-1-1 ATS in those games. Since February 1, they’re an impressive 9-2-1 ATS away from the desert.

While I’m worried about Nash’s physical condition, I like the fact that the Suns are playing consistently well on the road despite their ups and downs over the past two months. I like that their (long-overdue) benching of Carter has opened up more minutes for younger, higher-effort players like Dudley. And I like that they’re a desperate team who should outplay an opponent whom they’re simply better than. In other words, I like Phoenix Tuesday night. The FoxSheets has some trends supporting the Suns as well, including this highly-rated one:

Play On - Road favorites (PHOENIX) - revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a favorite, off a home loss. (102-52 since 1996, 66.2%, +44.8 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-29-2011, 01:41 PM

Surging Thunder host reeling Warriors Tuesday

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (32-42)

at OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (48-24)

Tip-off: Tuesday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Oklahoma City -10, Total: 215

Oklahoma City is on a roll, and there’s no reason that shouldn’t continue when it hosts Golden State on Tuesday night.

The Thunder are 12-2 SU and 7-4-1 ATS in March. And the scary part is that they’ve done it with superstar Kevin Durant playing some of his worst ball of the season. Durant hasn’t exactly been a disaster, but this month he’s averaging 24.8 PPG on 44.8% shooting, both well below his season averages (27.7 and 46.2%). He’s struggled badly over his past four games, shooting just 36.2% from the field. While a 6-for-21 day on March 20 cost them in a stunning home loss to the Raptors, the Thunder were able to come away with three SU wins, as well as a 1-1-1 ATS record, in their three games last week.

If history is any lesson, a home date with the Warriors will do Durant some good. Since moving to Oklahoma City from Seattle, Durant and the Thunder have hosted the Warriors five times. In those games, Durant has averaged 33.4 PPG on 53.8% shooting. And while his shooting from the field has been off recently, Durant still frequently gets to the line and makes his freebies (7.6 FT attempts per game this month, making 92.5%). He’s also been just fine from behind the arc, hitting 44.6% of his threes during March.

Durant’s gotten more than enough help from him friends of late. Despite their star’s relative shooting slump, the Thunder are averaging 105.6 PPG in March. Point guard Russell Westbrook has evolved into a true star, averaging 23.0 PPG on 48.1% shooting and 8.0 APG this month. And James Harden is now one of the league’s elite sixth men, averaging 16.6 PPG on 47.8% shooting off the bench in March. And, like most of the other teams who have emerged as the league’s elite in recent weeks, the Thunder are playing outstanding defense. They’re allowing just 95.0 PPG in March after allowing 102.2 PPG before this month. Since newly-acquired big man Kendrick Perkins made his OKC debut on March 14, the Thunder are allowing just 91.1 PPG as Perk has solidified their interior defense.

The Warriors have been playing some impressive ball themselves of late, scoring back-to-back, double-digit victories (by 38 over the Raptors on Friday, and by 10 over the Wizards on Sunday). But not only were those wins over two of the league’s weaker sisters, they were also both at home. And Golden State is a much different team when they get out of Oakland. The most obvious difference is its shooting. At home, the Warriors shoot 48% from the field, 41% from three and score 106.4 PPG. On the road, those numbers fall to 45%, 37% and 100.3 PPG. Look no further than their best player, Monta Ellis, who hits 48% of his shots from the field and 41.0% of his threes for 27.8 PPG at home, but just 42% and 29% for 20.8 PPG away.

Golden State is 23-14 SU and 19-18 ATS at home, but just 9-28 SU and 17-20 ATS on the road on this season. It’s gotten worse of late, as the Warriors dropped six straight road games, SU and ATS. They were outscored by an average of 112.3-97.8 in those losses. Golden State has been double-digit underdogs six times this season, and it is 1-5 ATS in those games.

Of course, complicating matters is that the Thunder have been double-digit favorites four times in the last 11 days, and have gone just 1-2-1 ATS in those games. Still, I don’t trust the Warriors to be competitive on the road Tuesday night. My pick is Oklahoma City. The FoxSheets have a few trends working in OKC’s favor, including:

Play Against - Underdogs (GOLDEN STATE) - off a home win scoring 110 or more points, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season. (133-81 since 1996, 62.1%, +43.9 units. Rating = 2*).

And considering Golden State’s shooting woes on the road, combined with the Thunder’s strong defense, I’m also picking the Under in this one. It helps to have a five-star trend from the FoxSheets to back that up:

GOLDEN STATE is 14-1 UNDER (93.3%, +12.9 Units) after failing to cover 3 of its last 4 against the spread this season. The average score was GOLDEN STATE 97.5, OPPONENT 99.5 - (Rating = 5*).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-29-2011, 01:43 PM

No. 1 seeds Alabama-Colorado clash in NIT semis

#1 seed ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (24-11)

vs. #1 seed COLORADO BUFFALOES (24-13)

NIT – Semifinals
Tip-off: Tuesday, 9:30 p.m. EDT – New York, NY
Line: Alabama -2, Total: 142.5

Should we really be surprised to find Alabama and Colorado in the NIT semifinals? On Selection Sunday it was the consensus of “experts” everywhere that Colorado was more than deserving of being in the big dance, many of those same “experts” believed that Alabama should have certainly been in the field ahead of the teams that were chosen for the NCAA play-in games (especially that team from that school, what’s the name? VC…Virginia Common…oh whatever they were called). Anyways, as opposed to that other tournament and its field of 68, here in the NIT, No. 1 seeds do what they’re supposed to do. In the proud tradition of Charlie Sheen, Alabama and Colorado are still WINNING, and that explains why they are in the semifinals of the National Invitation Tournament. In a sense by extending their respective seasons this long, they’re proving the people who doubted them AND the people who believed in them that they were two teams deserving of NCAA consideration.

For the Crimson Tide, the biggest adjustment they’ll have to get used to is playing an NIT game someplace besides Coleman Coliseum, where they won all three previous games to advance to the semifinals. Alabama advanced by giving its three opponents a heavy dose of what it does best: play defense. In defeating Coastal Carolina, New Mexico and Miami, the Tide gave up an average of 58.3 PPG, and won the games by an average margin of victory of 15.3 points. The team allowed Coastal Carolina to shoot 33.3%, held New Mexico to 37.9%, and Miami to 40.4%. Those numbers are not far off from the 38.3% they allow opponents to shoot this year, ranking them third-best in FG Pct. defense in Division I. Playing shutdown defense is very important for an Alabama team that only averages 67.3 PPG (215th-best in Division I). Fortunately the Tide are averaging 73.7 PPG in NIT play, taking some of the pressure off their defense to be “shutdown” defense every night. The Tide needs to get one of their top scorers, JaMychal Green, going again. Green (15.4 PPG) is only averaging 9.7 PPG in NIT play, and has not taken more than eight shots in any of those games. Fortunately guard Trevor Releford (11.0 PPG) has picked up the slack, scoring a team-high 22 in the win over Miami, and adding 20 in the victory over New Mexico. Also helping to pick up the slack against New Mexico is Tony Mitchell (15.5 PPG) who had a team-high 23 versus the Lobos and is averaging 17.0 PPG on 56% FG (18-of-32) in the NIT.

Colorado has been doing exactly what it was doing during the regular season and then some, running, gunning, scoring, and winning. The Buffaloes average 80.1 PPG (11th-best in Division I) for the season, which has been helped by 86.0 PPG in defeating Texas Southern, California, and Kent State by an average of 12.7 PPG in the NIT. Like Alabama, Colorado has played all three of its tournament games at home in Boulder. Top scorer Alec Burks (20.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG) has taken it to another level in the tournament, posting 27 points and seven boards against Texas Southern, 25 and six against California, and 25 with 10 boards in the victory over Kent State. Cory Higgins (16.1 PPG) hasn’t been a slouch either, posting 25 against Texas Southern and 22 over California. Burks and Higgins lead a Buffaloes attack that has four players scoring in double figures, as Levi Knutson averages 11.6 PPG and Marcus Relphorde scores 11.4 PPG. Meanwhile on the defensive end, top rebounder Andre Roberson (7.9 RPG) has to settle for getting his touches by cleaning the glass. In the victory over Kent State, he had 13 points and 12 boards, his fifth double-double of the season.

Although Alabama is just 1-4 (SU and ATS) on a neutral court, it is 12-3 ATS (80%) on 3+ days of rest and 12-4 ATS (75%) after an ATS win this season. Colorado is just 6-10 ATS (38%) away from home this year and 6-12 ATS (33%) with 3+ days of rest. With Alabama’s defensive prowess against Colorado’s offensive juggernaut, this game sets up as a classic matchup of contrasting styles. Because defense, as opposed to offense, almost always travels well, we like Alabama to cover the spread in this contest. The following four FoxSheets trends support this conclusion.

ALABAMA is 11-1 ATS (91.7%, +9.9 Units) when playing only its 2nd game in 8 days this season. The average score was ALABAMA 72.2, OPPONENT 57.9 - (Rating = 4*).

ALABAMA is 11-1 ATS (91.7%, +9.9 Units) after one or more consecutive overs this season. The average score was ALABAMA 69.3, OPPONENT 55.3 - (Rating = 4*).

COLORADO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after playing a game as a home favorite this season. The average score was COLORADO 71.7, OPPONENT 84.0 - (Rating = 2*).

ALABAMA is 14-4 ATS (77.8%, +9.6 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season. The average score was ALABAMA 69.1, OPPONENT 60.6 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-29-2011, 01:44 PM

Wichita St. favored by 2.5 over Washington St. in NIT

#4 seed WICHITA STATE SHOCKERS (27-8)

vs. #2 seed WASHINGTON STATE COUGARS (22-12)

NIT – Semifinals
Tip-off: Tuesday, 7:00 p.m. EDT – New York, NY
Line: Wichita State -2.5, Total: 142

Who knew?

Who knew that the paths of the seasons experienced by NIT semifinalist Wichita State and NCAA semifinalist Connecticut would hold so many common threads?Who knew that when the Maui Invitational tipped off way back on November 22 just three days before thanksgiving, the two participants in that opening game would both be headed for the final four of a postseason tournament? When Wichita State and Connecticut battled tooth and nail, before the Huskies emerged with a four-point victory, it marked the beginning of a tournament run for Connecticut that has mirrored its record versus non conference opponents: perfect. The Huskies went 3-0 at the Maui Invitational, 5-0 in the Big East Tournament, and so far are 4-0 in the NCAA Tournament. What might have happened to Connecticut’s season if Wichita State could have hung on to that five-point lead in the last 3:33 of the game? The matchup did offer some foreshadowing of what was to come for the teams from a resiliency and toughness standpoint, as evidenced by the fact both teams are still playing in the last week of March. (Kemba Walker’s 29-point, second-half performance also gave us a taste of what was to come!). Now Wichita State is headed to New York City, where it will try and do what Connecticut has already done this season, win a tournament championship in Madison Square Garden. Standing in the way of all that are the Cougars from Washington State.

The Cougars have advanced to the NIT semifinals with three straight victories at home. They defeated Long Beach State 85-74, Oklahoma State 74-64, and last Wednesday got by a scrappy Northwestern squad, 69-66, in overtime. Once again, State’s Klay Thompson was in the middle of the rally, scoring 12 of his game-high 17 in the second half, including four of the team’s first five points in overtime. He also led his team with nine rebounds. "We did a nice job battling a tough Northwestern team tonight," Washington State coach Ken Bone said. "We all showed a lot of character, especially down the stretch in the overtime period." The Cougars could have easily won the game in overtime, but DeAngelo Casto (who was originally suspended from playing, but re-instated just before the game by the school’s Athletic Director) was called for goaltending a shot by the Wildcats forward John Shurna with 0:04 to play to tie the game. With 0.2 seconds to play, the Cougars Abe Lodwick was fouled, but missed both free throws, forcing overtime, and setting the stage for Thompson to save the day. The Cougars didn’t cover the spread against Northwestern, but are still 5-2 ATS in their past seven games and 13-8 ATS (62%) as a favorite this season. WSU is also 4-1 ATS on a neutral court, 9-4 ATS (69%) in non-conference games and 7-4 ATS (64%) after an ATS loss.

The path to the Big Apple has been a little more difficult for the Shockers. Unlike the Cougars, Wichita State had to go on the road and win an overtime thriller in Blacksburg against Virginia Tech to keep its season alive in the tournament’s second round. After that triumph, the team returned home to defeat Bobby Cremins’ College of Charleston team 82-75. Wichita State took a 12-point lead into the intermission, then held off a furious comeback attempt by the Cougars, who shot a blistering 52% from beyond the arc, but couldn’t climb the mountain and overtake WSU. "Boy, the fans here are something, and we got a little excited to start the game," Cremins said. "We got away from our game, and we dug ourselves a hole." The Shockers were led by a balanced attack. Gabe Blair led the team with 16 points and eight rebounds, J.T. Durley added 14 points, Joe Ragland scored 12, and Toure’ Murry had 11. Durley (11.4 PPG, 5.1 RPG) is the team’s leading scorer, second leading rebounder, and the only player averaging double-figures scoring on the team. The Shockers are a respectable 16-14 ATS this year, but are just 3-6 ATS in their past nine games.

In a game that is tighter than a newborn cub and its mama bear, we are going with Washington State to advance to the NIT championship game behind maybe the hottest player in the NIT field, Klay Thompson (22.0 PPG, 5.3 RPG), on a team that is averaging 76.0 PPG, almost three points higher than its season average. The following two FoxSheets trends support Cougars pick.

WASHINGTON STATE is 9-1 ATS (90.0%, +7.9 Units) when playing only its 2nd game in 8 days this season. The average score was WASHINGTON STATE 76.2, OPPONENT 65.6 - (Rating = 3*).

WASHINGTON STATE is 11-4 ATS (73.3%, +6.6 Units) versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% this season. The average score was WASHINGTON STATE 73.9, OPPONENT 69.6 - (Rating = 1*).

This four-star FoxSheets trend supports choosing the Over on Tuesday.

WASHINGTON STATE is 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was WASHINGTON STATE 82.6, OPPONENT 71.7 - (Rating = 4*).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-29-2011, 01:45 PM

Davis starting for Cavaliers

CLEVELAND (AP) - Cavaliers point guard Baron Davis will make his first start since joining Cleveland against the Miami Heat.

Coach Byron Scott wanted to get Davis as many starts as possible before the end of the season. And with 10 games left, the veteran will get his first against LeBron James and the Heat, who are 3-0 against the Cavaliers this season.

Davis has been slowed by a knee injury and back spasms since he was acquired in a Feb. 24 trade with the Los Angeles Clippers. Davis also missed time following his grandmother's death.

Davis is averaging 15.3 points in six games coming off Cleveland's bench. He'll replace Ramon Sessions in the starting lineup.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-29-2011, 01:46 PM

Heat's Miller out vs. Cavaliers

CLEVELAND (AP) - Miami Heat reserve forward Mike Miller is going to miss at least one game with a bruised knee.

Miller is traveling with the team, but will not play in Tuesday night's game against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Coach Erik Spoelstra said after the morning shootaround that Miller will sit so his knee can ``calm down.'' Spoelstra does not yet know if Miller, averaging 5.7 points and 4.5 rebounds in his first season with Miami, will miss any additional time.

Spoelstra said Miller's knee is only sore, and the team will wait to see how he responds to rest. The Heat will play at Washington on Wednesday.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-29-2011, 01:49 PM

NIT Semifinals

March 29, 2011

Bettors have a pair of games to wager on tonight in the NIT semifinals at Madison Square Garden. Washington State and Wichita State will collide in the lid-lifter at 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.

Most betting shops are listing the Shockers as three-point favorites with a total of 142. Gamblers can back the Cougars to win outright for a plus-135 payout (risk $100 to win $135).

Wichita St. (27-8 straight up, 16-15 against the spread) advanced to NYC thanks to an 82-75 win over Charleston as an eight-point home favorite. The Shockers appeared poised to cash tickets for a third straight game when they led Bobby Cremins’ team by 23 points in the second half, but then Andrew Goudelock exploded with a barrage of 3-pointers to lead his team to a backdoor cover.

Gregg Marshall’s squad took the cash in the first two rounds of the NIT, mauling Nebraska 76-49 as a six-point home favorite on March 16. David Kyles came off the bench to bury four 3-pointers en route to scoring a team-high 13 points.

Then in the second round, Wichita St. went on the road and beat Va. Tech 79-76 in overtime. WSU won outright as a 5 1/2-point underdog, hooking up money-line backers with a payout in the plus-200 range.

Gabe Blair led WSU’s balanced attack with 16 points, eight rebounds, two steals, two assists and one blocked shot. J.T. Durley added 14 points and Toure Murry scored 11 points and dished out five assists.

Washington St. (22-12 SU, 18-13-1 ATS) beat up on Long Beach St. and Oklahoma St. by double-digit margins to advance to the NIT quarterfinals. The Cougars would need overtime to dispose of Northwestern by a 69-66 count, failing to collect the money as four-point home ‘chalk.’

Klay Thompson played 43 minutes, tallying 17 points, nine rebounds and four assists. DeAngelo Casto had a suspension for this game lifted at the last minute and his 11 points and eight rebounds proved to be pivotal.

Wazzu has been an underdog 11 times this year, posting a 5-5-1 spread record. As a single-digit favorite, Wichita St. compiled an 8-7 ATS mark.

The ‘over’ is 18-14 overall for Washington St. this season.

The ‘under’ had cashed in five straight games for the Shockers until the ‘over’ suddenly came alive and hit in their first three games of the NIT. For the year, Wichita St. has watched the ‘over’ go 16-15 overall.

Alabama (24-11 SU, 17-13-1 ATS) and Colorado will square off 30 minutes after the first game at MSG. ‘Bama has cruised to three comfortable wins in the NIT, dominating Coastal Carolina (68-44), New Mexico (74-67) and Miami (79-64) .

The Tide is 2-0-1 ATS during its three-game winning streak, but bettors that bet ‘Bama early on the day of the New Mexico win also got a spread-covering victory since the line only move to seven in the hours before tip-off. In the win over Miami, Trevor Releford led the way with a game-high 22 points.

The freshman point guard was also the catalyst against the Lobos, producing 20 points, six assists and six rebounds. If Releford can improve his perimeter jumper in the off-season, he’ll be one of the SEC’s premier PGs in 2011-2012.

Alabama junior power forward JaMychal Green recently announced that he’ll be returning for his senior campaign. He informed second-year head coach Anthony Grant last Wednesday after the Tide sent the Hurricanes home. Green was suspended for three games in December but since his return, ‘Bama has won 20 of its last 26 games.

Colorado (24-13 SU, 16-14 ATS) has won eight of its last 10 games, including an 81-74 win over Kent St. in the NIT quarterfinals. The Buffaloes failed to cover the number, however, as 10 ½-point favorites.

Alec Burks scored 25 points, grabbed 10 rebounds and dished out four assists against the Flashes. The sophomore guard will be the best player on the court tonight and could be playing his final game for the Buffs. That’s because he’s currently listed as the No. 8 pick of the first round in this summer’s NBA Draft (per nbadraft.net).

Cory Higgins is CU’s second-leading scorer, averaging 16.1 points per game. He scored 25 points in his team’s 88-74 win over Texas Southern in the NIT opener and went for 22 in a 89-72 victory over Cal in the second round.

Most spots have installed 'Bama as a two-point favorite with a total of 143. CU is plus-115 on the money line (risk $100 to win $115).

Colorado owns an 8-7 spread record in 15 games as an underdog, while Alabama has gone 6-1-1 ATS as a single-digit favorite.

The ‘over’ has hit in four of Alabama’s last five games and is 17-13-1 for the season. Meanwhile, Colorado has watched the ‘over’ has cash at a lucrative 20-10 overall clip.

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