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**StarDust Bum** · 03-28-2011, 12:32 PM

NBA Betting: Chicago Bulls host Philadelphia 76ers

Another key NBA game for Monday is Portland visiting the Spurs
who are looking to avoid a four-game losing streak.
The Chicago Bulls continue their push for the Eastern Conference’s top seed as they host the Philadelphia 76ers on Monday night.

NBA-TV will have the 5 p.m. (PT) broadcast from the United Center.

Chicago (53-19 straight-up, 45-25-2 against the spread) found ways to win over the weekend, which is what championship teams are supposed to do. The first game was a close 99-96 home win over Memphis on Friday. Derrick Rose scored the team’s final six points, although failing to ‘cover’ the nine-point spread.

Saturday night was equally precarious in Milwaukee, just a short 90 mile drive north from Chi-town. The offensively challenged Bucks led 87-83 with under three minutes left before a furious 12-0 Bulls rally to end the game. Rose was again the hero with eight late points (30 overall) and the 95-87 final covered the 5 ½-points.

The 182 combined points scored went ‘over’ the low 178-point total. The ‘over’ is 5-0 in Chicago’s last five games after a prolonged ‘under’ streak of 10-2 in the previous 12.

The Bulls have now won four straight and are an incredible 19-3 SU and 17-5 ATS since February 9. Their talent is far more than just MVP-candidate Rose (24.9 PPG, 7.9 APG) with an excellent frontline of Joakim Noah (12.2 PPG, 11 RPG), Carlos Boozer (17.8 PPG) and Luol Deng (17.7 PPG).

Tom Thibodeau is doing an incredible job considering he was last a head coach at unknown Salem State in 1984. However, the longtime NBA assistant is considered a defensive guru by all accounts and Chicago is second in scoring defense (91.1 PPG).

Thibodeau’s guys are especially tough at home. There’s a 14-game winning streak there (11-3 ATS) and 32-4 SU (23-11-2 ATS) on the year.

The Bulls now lead the conference by 2.5 games over fading Boston and three over Miami. They’re getting lot of respect at plus 325 NBA title odds at Bookmaker.com. That’s ahead of Boston and Miami (both plus 350), only trailing the L.A. Lakers (plus 205).

The 76ers (37-36 SU, 43-29-1 ATS) sit in sixth place in the Eastern Conference and have a playoff spot basically sewn up.

Philadelphia’s last game was Sunday at home against Sacramento, the second meeting between the teams in nine days. The 76ers lost 114-111 in overtime as 8 ½-point favorites. Their bench was outscored badly (35-14) and they also lost the battle of the boards (58-36).

Philly is 0-4 ATS in its last four games. The ‘over’ is 4-0 in the last four.

The 76ers now travel to the Midwest and are 9-10 ATS in the second half of back-to-back situations this year. Their road record has been poor at 14-24 SU, but a solid 22-15-1 ATS.

Philadelphia is just 17th in the league in scoring (99.2 PPG). It has six players averaging in double-digits, but no superstar with Elton Brand the leader (14.8 PPG).

The home team is 2-0 SU and ATS in games between Chicago and Philly this year. The Bulls won their home game 121-76 as five-point ‘chalk’ right before Christmas and that was with Noah still out with his thumb injury.

The ’over’ is 2-0 this year and 10-2-1 in the last 13 meetings between the teams.

These teams have had far different results playing on Monday, Chicago is 10-2-1 ATS in its last 13, while Philly is 2-9 ATS in its last 11.

Neither team is reporting any significant injuries.

Chicago will move onto Minnesota for a Wednesday night tilt, while Philadelphia hosts Houston the same night.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-28-2011, 12:33 PM

NHL Betting: Detroit Red Wings host Blackhawks

Both Chicago and Detroit have injury issues heading into Monday’s game.
Over the course of the last couple of seasons, the Detroit Red Wings and Chicago Blackhawks have battled it out atop the Central Division. This year's race is becoming a bit more one sided, and the Nashville Predators have stuck their noses between the two teams, but Monday's battle between these two should be hot and heavy.

On a nhnshortened Monday slate, NHL betting fans can sink their teeth into this one at Joe Louis Arena in a game that will be televised nationally on Versus (4:30 p.m. PT).

This is an incredibly important duel for both sides. Entering play Sunday, the Wings have 97 points with seven games to play, which gives them a five-point cushion on the Predators for the top spot in the division. Detroit is tied with the San Jose Sharks for the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference, but it has one more game to play than do the Pacific Division leaders.

Chicago isn't quite safe at this point. The Blackhawks have eight games left on their slate, and coming into Sunday they would be the last team in the chase for Lord Stanley's Cup. Both the Dallas Stars and the Calgary Flames are right there for the final slot in the Western Conference standings, so Chicago really needs to be careful.

The division lead isn't totally out of the question either, as the defending Stanley Cup champs are nine points back with one game in hand. Winning this one and that extra game could put them within five points as well.

There are definitely some injury concerns right now on both sides to watch for. Chicago has lost Patrick Sharp to a left knee injury that could keep him out for the rest of the regular season. Sharp scored 34 goals and had 34 assists, and he was well on his way to leading the team in goals for the year before getting hurt.

Instead, Jonathan Toews could end up with that distinction, as he has 30 strikes and 44 helpers to lead the team with 74 total points. Patrick Kane and Marian Hossa have 25 and 22 goals respectively, and they can also be counted upon for a nice shot in the arm offensively.

The injuries for the Red Wings are definitely less concerning in regards to the long-term health of the team, but they are certainly high in number. Pavel Datsyuk and Johan Franzen were both out of the fold in a 4-2 win over the Toronto Maple Leafs on Saturday, and Jimmy Howard suffered an upper body injury and was plucked from the game in the third period. All three are listed as day-to-day.

If Howard is out of the fold, it's terrible news for Detroit as Chris Osgood is already on the IR with a hernia that will keep him out of the lineup until the very end of the regular season.

This is only the third meeting of the season for these divisional foes, and there are three games left to be played between them in the last few weeks of the year. Chicago won by identical 4-1 score lines in December at home and in January here in Motown. The Wings won the first clash of the year 3-2, marking what, at the time, was their third straight win in this series, all of which came in the Windy City.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-28-2011, 12:38 PM

Final Four Openers

March 28, 2011

NEW ORLEANS -- The field for the 2011 NCAA Tournament has been reduced from 68 teams down to just four. Those four will battle in Houston this Saturday with the title game slated for Monday night at Reliant Stadium.

Butler has been installed as a 2 ½-point favorite versus Virginia Commonwealth with a total of 132. In the other semifinal matchup, Kentucky has been tabbed as a two-point ‘chalk’ against Connecticut. The total for UConn-UK is 141.

VCU and Butler will play the first game starting at 6:05 p.m. Eastern.

VCU has won five consecutive games in the NCAA Tournament, knocking off the likes of Southern Cal, Georgetown, Purdue, Florida State and Kansas. The Rams have won four of those five games by double-digit margins, including Sunday’s 71-61 win over top-seeded Kansas as 11 ½-point underdogs. Bettors backing VCU on the money line earned a lucrative plus-650 payout (risk $100 to win $650).

Jamie Skeen led the winners with 26 points and 10 rebounds, while Brandon Rozzell drained four 3-pointers. VCU led by as many as 18 in the first half and by 14 at halftime. KU trimmed the deficit down to two at one point, but the Rams responded with 9-2 run and the Jayhawks were unable to mount a legitimate threat the rest of the way.

Butler is the only school making a return trip to the Final Four. The Bulldogs rallied to force overtime against Florida before eventually capturing a 74-71 win as four-point underdogs. They hooked up money-line backers with a plus-160 return.

For the first time in the tournament, Butler will not be an underdog Saturday vs. VCU.

Kentucky ended the longest drought from the Final Four in school history when it held off North Carolina in Sunday’s 76-69 victory as a 1 ½-point favorite. Brandon Knight sparked the Wildcats with 22 points, seven rebounds and four assists. Josh Harrelson added 12 points and eight boards as all five UK starters scored in double figures.

John Calipari has now taken three schools (Umass, Memphis and UK) to the Final Four, although the previous appearances have been removed from the record books for various transgressions. The ‘Cats are gunning for their first national title since Tubby Smith’s team beat Rick Majerus’s Utah squad in 1998.

UConn held off a late charge from Arizona that cost its backers in Saturday’s 65-63 win as a three-point ‘chalk.’ As usual, Kemba Walker led the way with 20 points and seven assists while committing just a pair of turnovers.

The Huskies have won nine consecutive games, including five in the Big East Tournament at MSG and four in the NCAA Tourney. They have covered the spread at an 8-1 ATS clip during this stretch.

Jim Calhoun is the only coach remaining who has a national title to his credit, and he has a pair of them. Stevens and Calipari both have one appearance in the finals with Cal’s Memphis team losing to Kansas in overtime, while Stevens’ Butler squad lost to Duke by two last year

**StarDust Bum** · 03-28-2011, 12:40 PM

Final Four Betting Notes

March 28, 2011

What will you all be doing early Saturday evening? Is the first game of the Final Four between the small programs of Virginia Commonwealth and Butler "Must See TV"? This will be the question many of the Las Vegas sports books will hope the answer to is "Yes" despite not having the traditional glamour schools from major conferences participating.
Even CBS has made it clear they know who the country would rather see by putting the VCU Cinderella story in the less attractive time slot prior to the east coast prime time hours. Ratings are a winner for television, but does it also translate to the betting window in Vegas?

These are some of the questions that not only Vegas sportsbooks will be dealing with, but the entire nation. Do we like two Cinderella's in the Final Four, or do we like just one every couple of years?

It may sound trivial, or not even an issue, because the Final Four has become such an institution over the years with every game seeming just as meaningful as the next, but is that really true? If you’re being pressured to do yard work Saturday by the wife, knowing you have to sacrifice one game over the other, at what time do you start shaving the palm trees?

It's probable that unless you're from Virginia or Indiana, the Kentucky-Connecticut game will get star billing in every household. At the same time, how can anyone not be compelled with it being the first Final Four ever to not have a No. 1 or 2 seed present while also offering a No. 8 and 11 seed?

The rabid college basketball fans who frequent the Las Vegas sportsbooks every day will be ready for the pre-game show and primed no matter who's playing, but for the fringe fan -- the guy who breaks out his home state's college shirt once or twice a year, it's a tough sell which could have final handle numbers for the weekend games off a little.

"I don't think so," says the Las Vegas Hilton's Super Book's Jay Kornegay, "I think the four teams have a little bit to offer for everyone that loves college sports. Yes, VCU isn't as well known, but that's part of the excitement and Butler is kind of a well known name just from being there last year."

Whatever sporting event is coming to a close, it attracts more people to the betting windows and increases handle. The events cross over into homes of folks who don't necessarily follow the sport weekly. Events like the Super Bowl, Kentucky Derby and NBA Finals don't see more volume because the regulars are betting more, it's the people who want a piece of the excitement and a rooting interest that don't play daily who make the difference.

Casual sports fans know Connecticut, they know Kentucky, but they don't know Butler or VCU. You've got the well known Big East and SEC conferences battling who have been on television all year up against the Horizon and Colonial conferences, who are barely seen no matter how much you're willing to pay in DirecTV packages.

"I think this is going to be a normal Final Four compared to years past," said Cantor Gaming's Sports Book Director Mike Colbert, "But I will say that the handle for the UConn-Kentucky game will far outweigh the other game."

There is the innocence of the college sport and the school name across the chest that comes out and grabs the attention of casual fans when underdogs knock off giants that compels them in the same way that endeared us to the movie Hoosiers.

"Most college basketball fans are like me and enjoy seeing the whole story unfold no matter who wins it just because these games are always intriguing," said Colbert, "But across the board, it's the big teams that still draw the big money."

While the Final Four is a big weekend with two big games Saturday and the Championship game on Monday, it's still not up there on the level of the Derby or Super Bowl.

"It's not like the first weekend of the tournament by any means," Colbert said, "People don't fly in to Vegas for Final Four weekend like they do for the first two weeks."

People are worn from the barrage of games that have captivated us all for the last two weeks and when the last three games come around, people want to watch, but they aren't making destination plans to do so.

"The NCAA Tournament is kind of unique for us because the big splash for us happens in the first two rounds," says Kornegay. "It's the only major sport we have where the final game doesn't have the same type of impact for us as the preceding games."

The actual impact of two Cinderellas making the Final Four to Las Vegas won't be known until next week, but Kornegay believes the entity of the event will hold more weight than the participants.

"I don't think it really matters who is in the Final Four, they're going to bet it no matter what."

Check Ego's at the Door, VCU Made the Final Four...Deal With It!

I've never seen the national sports media carry a grudge like they're doing with VCU during their run. Most acknowledge that it's a phenomenal story with a team that barely made the tournament having to win a play-in game just to make the field of 64, and then making the Final Four.

National sports writer Jamele Hill -- who has most recently found fame with her mug on ESPN's "Around the Horn" -- and the always positive hoop spin doctor Dick Vitale have been quick to remind everyone on the social network, via Twitter, that VCU still shouldn't be there. They are sticking to their guns regarding their initial tirades when the selection committee came out with their top 68 teams.

Sure, the few selections were debatable, but after all that has happened, you would think that these ambassadors of the college game might celebrate the accomplishment more.

How about guiding the anger in poison tweets to more worthy topics in regards to the college spirit like questioning the tactics of John Calipari, who somehow is still allowed to roll out his card tricks in the face of the NCAA after crushing two programs, right?

We forget that these kids are just that, kids. It's a game with young adults who are going to school, not getting paid -- in most cases -- and should be void of the type of commentary we reserve for the professionals. Negativity by the media, especially at this level, is unfair. It makes you understand a little what Oklahoma State football coach Mike Gundy was saying when he went on his famous "I'm a MAN" tirade with the media.

Even though Calipari's players may benefit more than others, to see two teams like Butler and VCU do what they are doing should inspire and show that the college game isn't all about non-sanctioned agents, AAU coaches, shoe camps and networking.

It shows that if you have good coaching, players who have some talent that want to better themselves, get an education and work well as a team, you can reach the pinnacle no matter what small conference you're from. Most of the VCU and Butler players have played with each other for three years or more and are a true team in the concept, while Calipari and Kentucky continually have players with basically one-year contracts.

Even though I thought Colorado should have made the field of 68 like many others, I know who I'm rooting for right now without my tiny ego getting in the way.

Las Vegas Sports Book Notes

The Las Vegas Hilton adjusted their future odds for the Final Four with Kentucky being the 7/5 favorite (Bet $100 to win $140) followed by the team they're playing in the semi-final match, Connecticut, as the second choice at 9/4 (Bet $100 to win $225). Butler is 3/1 (Bet $100 to win $300) with super-Cinderella VCU getting 9/2 (Bet $100 to win $450) odds.

So VCU lost to Drexel, Georgia State, James Madison, Northeastern, and well, let's just say quite a few others. However, they are also the only team to win five NCAA tournament games and win by double-digits against four of them. They won as double-digit underdogs against both Purdue and Kansas, so why not take down Butler and whoever makes the final?

As for Butler, after getting through a tough three game losing streak at the end of January -- losing to the likes of Youngstown State -- they have reeled off 13 straight wins coming into the Final Four as the hottest team remaining. They have also covered their last six games in a row.

The SEC wasn't a highly regarded conference within the RPI rankings, but Kentucky did what they had to along the way and has won 10 games in a row, including winning the SEC conference tournament. They knocked off Florida in the SEC title game -- a team seeded higher than them in the NCAA's -- and then went out and beat a Big East team, Big Ten, and ACC squads to get where they are at. They may have the most impressive credentials of all which is why the Wild Cats are the favorites to win it all.

Connecticut didn't lose to a team outside of the Big East all season. They started the season off with 10 straight wins and are currently on a nine-game winning streak that includes winning the Big East tournament. Everyone knew they were good coming into the season, but we kind of got side tracked because of the nine conferences losses. Whatever it is they have done, they have sandwiched in a terrific season of excellence. The most attractive aspect of siding with the Huskies is that they have a star in Kemba Walker who is filling it like not many others have on this stage.

Because of the star player angle with Walker and Connecticut truly being who were all thought they were from November, I'll take them to beat VCU in the Championship Game by nine points.

Sweet 16 Results Good for the House

With all the upsets that occurred last week, it was only natural that the sports books did well. However, after missing out on a string of VCU upsets, the bettors finally jumped on the bandwagon with them against Kansas on the money-line and point line. Despite paying out 5/1 (Bet $100 to win $500) and higher with VCU money-line plays, there was a large cash reserve in the bank with the likes of public favorites Ohio State and Duke losing outright.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-28-2011, 12:42 PM

Final Four Round Up

March 28, 2011

It’s onward to Houston for the Final Four. To put the wraps on the 2011 NCAA Tournament, listed below are some interesting trends and angles to consider before our Fab Four lifts off this weekend. All results listed below are ATS (Against The Spread) and most recent since 1991 unless noted otherwise. Enjoy…

FINAL 4 ROUND NOTES

• #3 seeds are 7-3 (4-0 SU and ATS as favs or dogs of 4 or less points)
• #8 or lower seeds are 0-3
• Teams off BB SU dog wins are 1-8
• Teams who are 3-0 ATS last 3 games are 9-24
• Teams with revenge are 2-7
• Big East teams are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS
• SEC teams are 6-2 as dog or favorites of less than 7 points
• Teams with the greater win percentage are 10-2 SU and ATS S/2005
• Returnees from last year in this round are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS as favorites

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME NOTES

• #3 seed dogs are 1-3
• #5 or worse seeds are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS
• Favorites of 5 or less points are 10-1
• Favorites who scored 80 > points in the Final 4 round are 4-1
• Teams with a win percentage of .810 < are 0-4 SU & ATS
• Teams off an ATS win of 16 or more points are 1-5 SU and ATS • Dogs of more than 2 points who allowed 60 > points in Final 4 round are 1-5
• Dogs 3 or more points off a SU dog win are 1-5
• Big East teams are 3-0 SU and ATS
• SEC teams are 3-0 ATS as favorites

COACH ME UP

Butler’s Brad Stevens is:
48-56-4 ATS as a favorite and 16-6-1 ATS as a dog
33-16-2 ATS vs non-conference
10-3 SU and ATS in NCAA tournament
2-2 SU and ATS vs Big East
1-0 SU and ATS vs CAA
1-2 SU and ATS vs SEC

Connecticut’s Jim Calhoun is:
228-236-12 ATS as a favorite and 63-57-1 ATS as a dog
98-98-5 ATS vs non-conference
43-13 SU and 28-27-1 ATS in NCAA tournament
7-1 SU and 2-6 ATS vs CAA
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs Horizon League
13-5 SU and 11-7 ATS vs SEC

Kentucky’s John Calipari is:
237-204-14 ATS as a favorite and 53-27-1 ATS as a dog
129-98-5 ATS vs non-conference
32-13 SU and 23-21-1 ATS in NCAA tournament
23-8 SU and 17-13-1 ATS vs Big East
6-0 SU and ATS vs CAA
2-0 SU and ATS vs Horizon League

VCU’s Shaka Smart is:
24-26-1 ATS as a favorite and 9-6 ATS as a dog
14-12 ATS vs non-conference
5-0 SU and ATS in NCAA tournament
1-1 SU and ATS vs Big East
0-0 SU and ATS vs Horizon League
0-1 SU and ATS vs SEC

There you have it, trends and notes of teams and coaches for the NCAA Final Four and out games played the last 20 years. I hope you’ve enjoyed the tournament as much as I have. I’ll return during the NBA playoffs with an overview of some Good, Bad, and downright Ugly stats and trends. Until then, enjoy the rest of the ‘Dance’.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-28-2011, 12:45 PM

Weekly Notes - West

March 28, 2011

(Straight-Up, Against the Spread, Over/Under)

1) San Antonio (57-16, 41-30-2, 39-34)

Weekly Recap: Things started well with a blowout win over the Warriors, but Tim Duncan suffered a ankle injury that kept him for the remainder of the week. San Antonio lost the final three games at Denver, Portland, Memphis, while all 'over' cashed in all three defeats.

Weekly Outlook: The Spurs return to the Lone Star State for all four games this week, starting with Portland with no rest on Monday. San Antonio hosts Boston in a key showdown on Thursday, followed by a quick trip to Houston on Friday. The week concludes on Sunday with a visit from the Suns.

2) L.A. Lakers (53-20, 35-37-1, 29-44)

Weekly Recap: The Lakers continued their hot streak with a 3-0 week, improving to 15-1 since the All-Star break. Los Angeles failed to cover in victories over the Suns and Clippers, while cashing in a rout of the Hornets.

Weekly Outlook: L.A. plays its final nine games against Western Conference foes as the Lakers return to the court on Friday at home against the Mavs. The Purple and Gold hosts red-hot Denver on Sunday, as the two teams have split a pair of meetings this season.

3) Dallas (52-21, 39-32-2, 41-32)

Weekly Recap: Rick Carlisle's club is breathing down the Lakers' neck to grab the second seed in the Western Conference following a 3-0 week. Dallas held off a feisty Minnesota squad at home, followed by a 94-77 drubbing of Utah as six-point road favorites. The week ended on a strong note with a 91-83 win at Phoenix, marking the fifth consecutive 'under.'

Weekly Outlook: The Mavs continue a six-game road swing with a pair of games at Staples Center against the Clippers (Wednesday) and Lakers (Thursday). Dallas has another back-to-back set to finish the trip at Golden State (Saturday) and Portland (Sunday), while trying to avenge a loss at the Rose Garden on March 15.

4) Oklahoma City (48-24, 38-33-1, 39-33)

Weekly Recap: The Thunder clinched their second straight playoff berth after knocking off the Blazers on Sunday. OKC has won three straight, while capturing nine of the last 10 games to open up a sizable lead in the Northwest Division.

Weekly Outlook: A six-game homestand wraps up for the Thunder on Tuesday against the Warriors, followed by a four-game road trip that begins on Wednesday in Phoenix. Oklahoma City finishes its season series against Portland on Friday, while trying to avoid a letdown to the Clippers with no rest on Saturday.

5) Denver (44-29, 38-32-3, 35-37-1)

Weekly Recap: The Nuggets bounced back from consecutive losses in Florida to win all three games at home. Denver crushed both Toronto and Washington as substantial favorites, while holding off San Antonio for its first victory in four tries against the Spurs.

Weekly Outlook: Denver will play with four days of rest when it returns to the Pepsi Center on Wednesday against Sacramento. The two teams will shift venues on Friday to wrap up a home-and-home set, followed by a key Sunday matchup in Southern California against the Lakers.

6) Portland (42-31, 37-33-3, 34-38-1)

Weekly Recap: The Blazers continued a scorching ATS stretch throught the month of March as this team is 9-4 ATS the last 13 games. Portland dismantled Washington, followed by a buzzer-beating victory over San Antonio. The week ended on a sour note with a 99-90 setback at Oklahoma City, the third loss this season to the Thunder.

Weekly Outlook: Portland continues a three-game road swing on Monday at San Antonio, followed by a trip to New Orleans on Wednesday. The Blazers' week doesn't ease up on Friday as they return home to host the Thunder, while battling the Mavs on Sunday.

7) New Orleans (42-32, 35-37-2, 26-48)

Weekly Recap: The Hornets were dealt a devastating blow with David West's torn ACL in an overtime victory at Utah, putting the All-Star out for the rest of the season. New Orleans pulled together for an outright underdog victory at Phoenix, but the Lakers were too much for the Hornets as L.A. beat New Orleans handily at Staples Center.

Weekly Outlook: With the NCAA Tournament out of the way, the Hornets return to the Big Easy for five games, starting with Portland on Wednesday. New Orleans tries to stay in the playoff hunt as Memphis (Friday) and Indiana (Sunday) visit to conclude the week.

8) Memphis (41-33, 47-26-1, 38-36)

Weekly Recap: The Grizzles have dominated this season from an ATS standpoint by cashing in each of their last five games, while winning four times. Memphis pulled off impressive victories over Boston and San Antonio, but the Grizzlies couldn't knock off the Bulls on the road, even though Memphis covered as nine-point 'dogs.

Weekly Outlook: Memphis does very little traveling the next two weeks with six of the next seven games at home. The Grizzlies host the unrested Warriors on Wednesday, followed by a road division showdown with the Hornets on Friday. Memphis heads to Minnesota on Saturday as both clubs will be playing the second of a back-to-back.

9) Houston (38-35, 39-32-2, 38-35)

Weekly Recap: The Rockets are still scratching and clawing to get into the postseason, as Houston split a pair of games this past week. Houston routed Golden State at home for its fifth straight win, but the Rockets couldn't overcome the Big Three of the Heat in a 125-119 setback at Miami as eight-point 'dogs.

Weekly Outlook: Rick Adelman's club continues a three-game East Coast swing in New Jersey on Tuesday, followed by a trip to Philadelphia on Wednesday. The Rockets' late-season surge hopes to carry over at home against San Antonio on Friday, while Atlanta invades the Toyota Center on Sunday.

10) Phoenix (36-36, 33-36-3, 36-36)

Weekly Recap: The Suns stumbled to a 1-3 mark to further push themselves back in the playoff race. Phoenix covered in an triple-overtime thriller at the Lakers, but couldn't pull off a win in a 139-137 loss. The Suns rallied past the Raptors, while falling to the Hornets and Mavs at home.

Weekly Outlook: It's a back-and-forth week for the Suns who head to Sacramento on Tuesday, followed by a two-game homestand against the Thunder (Wednesday) and Clipper (Friday). Phoenix begins a four-game road swing on Sunday at San Antonio looking for its first win in three tries.

11) Utah (36-38, 31-41-1, 40-34)

Weekly Recap: The season has turned flat for the Jazz quickly with five straight losses, while winning just nine of their last 34 games to fall below .500. Utah dropped a pair of road games at Memphis and Oklahoma City by double-digits, but managed a cover in an overtime defeat to the Hornets. The Mavs completed a four-game sweep of the Jazz with a fourth-quarter rally in a 17-point demolition.

Weekly Outlook: Utah tries to break its losing streak on Monday against Washington, as the Jazz are 1-7 ATS the last eight games as a home favorite. The Jazz hosts the Lakers on Friday, followed by a trip to Sacramento on Sunday.

12) Golden State (32-42, 35-38-1, 34-40)

Weekly Recap: The Warriors completed a four-game road trip winless, including a pair of lopsided defeats to the Spurs and Rockets. Golden State rebounded nicely by dishing out a pair of routs to also-rans Toronto and Washington at home, while dropping a season-high 138 points on the Raptors.

Weekly Outlook: Keith Smart's team plays just one of its final eight games against a non-playoff team as the Warriors battle the Thunder (Tuesday) and Grizzlies (Wednesday) to start the week. Golden State returns home to Oracle Arena on Saturday to entertain Dallas, looking to beat the Mavs for the first time in four meetings.

13) L.A. Clippers (29-45, 34-39-1, 37-36-1)

Weekly Recap: The Clippers took care of the Wizards and Raptors at home, but Los Angeles was unable to cover as double-digit 'chalk.' The lone game that the Clips covered came against the Lakers as 9 ½-point 'dogs, marking the third ATS win this season against their cross-city rivals.

Weekly Outlook: The most difficult schedule in the league down the stretch belongs to the Clips, who battles all over .500 teams the final eight games. Vinny Del Negro's club hosts the Mavs on Wednesday, followed by a back-to-back set at Phoenix (Friday) and at home against the Thunder (Saturday).

14) Sacramento (20-52, 32-39-1, 41-31)

Weekly Recap: Maybe the Kings are saving their best for last, but Sacramento managed a successful 4-1 SU/ATS road trip, finishing things off with an overtime victory at Philadelphia. The Kings also knocked off the Pacers and Bucks as healthy underdogs with the only blemish coming to the hot Bulls in a 40-point setback.

Weekly Outlook: Sacramento plays three of four games at home this week starting with Phoenix on Tuesday. The Kings turn around for a quick trip to Denver on Wednesday, followed by a visit from the Nuggets on Friday. The week concludes on Sunday against Utah as the Kings are just 3-4 ATS the last seven games at home.

15) Minnesota (17-57, 30-40-2, 39-33)

Weekly Recap: The last thing the Wolves need is an injury to a key player, albeit their best player. Kevin Love missed all three games with a groin injury, but Minnesota found a way to cover in all three losses to Dallas, Oklahoma City, and Boston, marking a 7-3 ATS record the last 10 games.

Weekly Outlook: A tough home stretch continues for the Wolves against the Bulls on Wednesday and Heat on Friday. Minnesota heads to Memphis on Saturday, as the Wolves are 5-1 ATS the last six opportunities as a road underdog with no rest.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-28-2011, 01:13 PM

Bulls favored by double-digits over 76ers

PHILADELPHIA 76ers (37-36)

at CHICAGO BULLS (53-19)

Tip-off: Monday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Chicago -10, Total: 191.5

Philadelphia is licking its wounds after a bad home loss to Sacramento Sunday afternoon, and things are about to get a lot tougher when they visit Chicago Monday night.

The Bulls have been nearly unstoppable at home all year. They’ve won 14 home games in a row SU, going 11-3 ATS during that span. On the year, they’re 23-12-1 ATS (66%) at the United Center, which ties them with Memphis for the best home mark in the NBA.

Chicago certainly has some dynamic offensive talent, led by MVP front-runner Derrick Rose. But they don’t normally run teams off the court with offense. Since the All-Star break, the Bulls are averaging just 98.8 PPG (19th in the NBA) and shooting 45.3% from the field (21st). Rose is scoring 25.1 PPG, but shooting just 40.4% from the field since the Break (he’s also gone cold from three after a big early-season improvement—28.4% from behind the arc since All-Star weekend). Forwards Luol Deng (17.9 PPG on 46.2% shooting) and Carlos Boozer (13.6 PPG on 45.3% shooting) are providing complementary scoring since All-Star weekend, but not with great efficiency.

But with the combination of Rose’s leadership and competitiveness, and head coach Tom Thibodeau’s defensive acumen, the Bulls have smothered opponents on the defensive end. On the year, they lead the NBA in opponent field goal percentage (42.8%)—at home that number drops to an absurd 41.5%—and since the Break they lead the league in PPG allowed (87.2).

While the Bulls are playing some of their best basketball of late, Philadelphia is slipping up a bit. With Sunday’s loss against the Kings, the 76ers have now dropped three of four SU and four in a row ATS. They’ve sacrificed offense for defense. Guard Jodie Meeks (15.0 PPG on 51.9% shooting in March) has led them in scoring this month despite being sixth on the team in field-goal attempts, and Louis Williams (14.9 PPG in March) continues to provide plenty of scoring off the bench. Those two have effectively complemented Andre Iguodala (14.8 PPG) and Jrue Holiday (13.6 PPG), who are more comfortable deferring on the offensive end. They’re scoring 103.4 PPG since the All-Star Break, up from 98.2 PPG.

But they’re also allowing 100.9 PPG since the Break, up from 96.9 PPG. Their opponent FG Pct. has risen from 44.7% pre-Break to 46.6% since. In March, they’ve allowed 102.6 PPG on 47.3% shooting, and their past four opponents have all gone for 100 points or more in regulation.

The Sixers have had a surprisingly strong year overall. They haven’t been double-digit underdogs since November (they lost by 23 at San Antonio on November 13, and lost but covered against Miami, 99-90, on November 26). They’ve more than held their own on the road, going 22-15-1 ATS (60%), the seventh-best mark in the league.

But the Bulls have won four in a row and six of seven ATS as double-digit favorites. The last time Chicago hosted Philly, back on December 21, they thrashed the Sixers 121-76, and that was with a short-handed frontcourt (Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson were out). This game obviously won’t be so lopsided, but I am expecting the Bulls to handle Philly with ease. My pick is Chicago.

With both teams heading in opposite directions of late, the FoxSheets show a highly-rated trend that plays in the Bulls favor:

Play Against - Road underdogs of 10 or more points (PHILADELPHIA) - after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread against opponent hot team - covering 8 or more of their last 10 against the spread. (28-6 since 1996, 82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-28-2011, 01:14 PM

Rondo questionable for Monday's game at Indiana

BOSTON CELTICS (51-21)

at INDIANA PACERS (32-42)

Tip-off: Monday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Boston -3, Total: 189

The Celtics travel to take on the Pacers on Monday. Boston will be looking to sweep the season series from the Pacers for the first time since 2007-08.

Boston is 32-36 ATS this season and is 6-10 ATS over its past 16 games. The Celtics enter Monday two games behind the Bulls for first in the Eastern Conference. After losing their previous two games at home against Memphis and Charlotte, the C’s nearly blew a 25-point, second-quarter lead in defeating the lowly Timberwolves in Minnesota on Sunday. Paul Pierce led the Celtics with 23 points and now has scored at least 20 in three of his past four games, averaging 21.0 PPG over that span. Boston has really struggled offensively over its past 10 games, averaging 85.7 PPG, while shooting just 28.8 percent from the three-point line.

Indiana is 33-38 ATS this season. The Pacers enter Monday one game ahead of the Bobcats for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. They had a chance to extend their lead, but lost their past two games to non-playoff teams, Sacramento and Detroit. "We just gave away two games in the last two nights to two teams that wanted it more, and just let other teams right back in the hunt," forward Danny Granger said Saturday. "We have to step it up and if we don't, we will be out of the playoffs." Granger made just 9-of-25 FG attempts in the Pacers last two losses. Granger has also struggled greatly over the past four contests versus the Celtics, making 28.6 percent of his field goals while hitting 4-of-23 from beyond the arc to average 16.3 PPG.

The Pacers have dropped 11 of 13 meetings with the Celtics, including five in a row while averaging 89.6 PPG on 40.2% FG. Indiana made just 37.5 percent of its field goals in a 92-80 loss at Boston on March 16. However, the Celtics are really struggling to find themselves offensively over their past 10 games, and the Pacers might catch a break with Rajon Rondo questionable due to an injured right pinkie finger. Rondo did not play in the Celtics win over the Timberwolves on Sunday. I’m taking the home dog Indiana to cover the spread. The FoxSheets provide two more trends backing the Pacers:

Play Against - Favorites (BOSTON) - after scoring 90 points or less 3 straight games.(82-43 over the last 5 seasons.) (65.6%, +34.7 units. Rating = 2*).

INDIANA is 30-15 ATS (66.7%, +13.5 Units) in home games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. The average score was INDIANA 104.5, OPPONENT 99.8 - (Rating = 1*).

And this four-star FoxSheets trend expects the Over to occur on Monday night.

Doc Rivers is 17-2 OVER (89.5%, +14.8 Units) off a road no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite as the coach of BOSTON. The average score was BOSTON 104.4, OPPONENT 96.6 - (Rating = 4*).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-28-2011, 01:15 PM

Magic try to beat Knicks for 7th straight time

ORLANDO MAGIC (47-26)

at NEW YORK KNICKS (35-38)

Tip-off: Monday, 7:35 p.m. EDT
Line: Pick, Total: 207

The Knicks come home to take on Orlando for the second time in the last week. Originally scheduled for November 2, this game was rescheduled when debris fell into the arena during overnight cleaning of asbestos-related materials.

The Magic are 31-41 ATS this season, which includes a 14-21 record ATS on the road. Despite winning five in a row and seven of the last 11 SU, Orlando is just 2-9 ATS over that span. It’s been the Dwight Howard show lately in Orlando as he has absolutely dominated opponents over the past two months, having recorded 30 consecutive double-doubles. He is averaging 24.7 PPG, 15.6 RPG, 2.7 BPG and shooting 64.4 percent from the field over that span. Howard has also torched the Knicks of late, averaging 25.8 PPG, 14.0 RPG and shooting 67.1 percent during the Magic’s current six-game win streak over New York. Howard has played 11 games at Madison Square Garden in his career. Orlando is 8-3 in those games (have won four straight) and he has recorded a double-double in each of his past 10 meetings. Orlando has some injury concerns as Jameer Nelson (12.7 PPG, 6.0 APG) is doubtful with a sprained knee, and Quentin Richardson is also doubtful to play for a second straight game because of a bad back.

New York has been excellent ATS all season ranking near the top of the league. Their record of 40-31 still ranks in the top five, but the Knicks have lost six consecutive games and nine of their past 10 both ATS and SU. After being New York’s rock for most of the season, Amar’e Stoudemire has really struggled over his past four games, averaging 17.8 PPG and shooting just 39.7 percent from the field. Since scoring six points in a loss at Detroit on March 18, Carmelo Anthony has thrived over his past five games, averaging 26.0 PPG and shooting 42.9 percent from three-point range.

New York has really struggled down the stretch, getting outscored by an average of six points in the fourth quarter during its six-game losing streak. I don’t see that changing Monday at home, where the home crowd is drawing very restless with a Knicks team that tends to fall apart at the seams at the absolute worst time. I’m taking Orlando to come away with the road victory. The FoxSheets give two more reasons to side with the Magic:

Play On - Road favorites (ORLANDO) - average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defense (<=14.5 TO's) after 42+ games. (154-95 since 1996.) (61.8%, +49.5 units. Rating = 2*).

Play On - Road favorites (ORLANDO) - after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more. (65-36 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.4%, +25.4 units. Rating = 2*).

The past six meetings between these teams have finished Over the total, but this highly-rated FoxSheets trend sides with the Under.

Play Under - Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (ORLANDO) – well-rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days against opponent tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days. (64-29 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.8%, +32.1 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-28-2011, 06:01 PM

NBA

Monday, March 28

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Boston - 7:00 PM ET Indiana +2 500
Indiana - Over 187.5 500

Milwaukee - 7:00 PM ET Charlotte -1.5 500
Charlotte - Over 179 500

Orlando - 7:30 PM ET Orlando -1.5 500
New York - Under 206 500

Philadelphia - 8:00 PM ET Philadelphia +10 500
Chicago - Under 191.5 500

Portland - 8:30 PM ET San Antonio -3 500
San Antonio - Under 190.5 500

Washington - 9:00 PM ET Washington +12 500
Utah - Under 204 500

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NHL

Monday, March 28

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Chicago - 7:30 PM ET Detroit -120 500
Detroit - Over 5.5 500

Colorado - 10:00 PM ET Anaheim -242 500
Anaheim - Under 5.5 500

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NCAAB

Monday, March 28

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Oregon - 8:00 PM ET Creighton -5 500
Creighton - Under 142 500

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