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**StarDust Bum** · 03-24-2011, 12:06 AM

NCAA Tournament Odds: BYU Cougars and Florida tip SE Region

(3) Brigham Young Cougars vs. (2) Florida Gators
Southeast Regional - New Orleans
Time/TV: Thursday, March 24, 4:27 p.m. (PT) TBS
Odds: Florida by 3, total at 149

Unless a bunch of LSU fans show up to express disgust with their SEC rivals from Florida, the Gators should have a very pronounced crowd behind them in the Big Easy when they take on the BYU Cougars.

Brigham Young (32-4 straight up, 15-17 against the spread) has just three losses since mid-December, two of those to New Mexico following wins over San Diego State both times. The Cougs topped the Aztecs twice in the regular season before falling to SDSU in the Mountain West Finals on March 12.

BYU narrowly missed the cover in its NCAA tourney opener last Thursday with a 74-66 win over Wofford as 8½-point chalk. The Cougars followed that up with an 89-67 rout of Gonzaga as one-point favorites.

All discussions about Brigham Young start and end with senior guard Jimmer Fredette, the nation's leading scorer (28.8 PPG). Despite scoring 32 points, he had a bit of an off game in the win over the Terriers hitting 10-of-25 from the field and only 2-of-9 from long range. He did make up for that a bit with 10-of-12 from the charity stripe and seven assists.

If he's off against Florida, he'll need more support from the rest of his team that shot just 14-of-36 from the field.

Fredette found his mark from three-point land in the victory over the Zags, sinking 7-of-12 from beyond the arc to add 34 more points to his ledger. BYU's support personnel also came to life, sinking 20-of-36 between them, 7-of-16 from three-point land.

Florida (28-7 SU, 16-14-1 ATS) has dropped just two games since the end of January, both defeats at the hands of Kentucky including a 70-54 defeat in the SEC Tournament Championship Game. The 12 wins wrapping around the two losses to the Wildcats saw the Gators cash nine time, with a 7-3 ATS record in the 10 they were favored.

The Gators shot well in both wins over the Gauchos and Bruins, hitting 50 percent or better from the field, netting 14-of-37 from long range and sinking 13-of-17 from the free throw line in each contest. All of those percentages were above season norms.

Kenny Boynton, who scored 13 and 12 points respectively in the pair of victories last week, has been limited in practice this week with an ankle injury. The sophomore guard, second on the team with a 14.0 scoring average, is expected to play and will draw Fredette on the defensive side of the ball most of the night.

The 'over' has also been profitable during the same post-February stretch for the Gators and continued in the two wins and covers against UC-Santa Barbara and UCLA last week in the Tampa pod. Florida is 11-2 to the high side of the total its last 13 games, 4-1 at neutral sites during the SEC and NCAA tourneys.

A double-overtime thriller broke out when these two schools last squared off in their 2010 NCAA Tournament openers. Seeded seventh, BYU scored a 99-92 win over the Gators with Fredette hitting a pair of threes in the second overtime as part of a 37-point afternoon at the Oklahoma City Arena.

The Cougars covered chalk that closed at five after opening a point lower. The two teams combined for 150 points in regulation to top the 147-point total in that game. Boynton and Chandler Parsons paced Florida with 27 and 20 in the boxscore.

Thursday's victor will hit the Superdome floor again Saturday to take on the winner of the Wisconsin, Butler battle that follows on TBS approximately 25 minutes after the Cougars and Gators wrap their game up.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-24-2011, 12:07 AM

Wisconsin Badgers chalk to take down Butler Bulldogs on NCAA odds

Butler (25-9 straight up, 17-13-2 against the spread) has crashed the Southeast Region party, and is trying to advance to its second Final Four in as many years.

The eighth-seeded Bulldogs reside in mid-major territory in the Horizon League, and stick out in a Southeast Region that has seeds two, three and four still playing. Butler won its first two games by a combined three points.

Wisconsin (25-8 SU, 17-12 ATS) remains one of two Big Ten schools still playing in the NCAA Tournament, winning its first two games by a combined 19 points. The fourth-seeded Badgers currently entertain 20/1 odds of winning the national championship, while the Bulldogs are 25/1.

Wisconsin opened as four-point ‘chalk’ over Butler, but the Don Best odds screen now shows the Badgers as a five-point favorite while the total has remained unchanged at 124.

TBS will provide coverage of Thursday’s Sweet 16 matchup from Louisiana Superdome in New Orleans, tentatively scheduled to start at 7:00 p.m. (PT), about a half hour after the BYU-Florida contest concludes.

Butler started its NCAA Tournament run by slipping past ninth-seed Old Dominion last Thursday as a one-point underdog, 60-58, while the combined 118 points went ‘under’ the 123 ½-point closing. Senior forward Matt Howard’s tip-in at the buzzer prevented the game from going into overtime.

The Bulldogs followed that effort with Saturday’s victory over Southeast Region top-seed Pittsburgh as an eight-point underdog, 71-70. The combined 141 points flew ‘over’ the 125-point closing total.

The end of the game was bizarre to say the least, with a pair of fouls occurring in the last few seconds. Butler took the lead with three seconds remaining when Andrew Smith scored in the paint. Then the Bulldogs’ Shelvin Mack inadvertently fouled Gilbert Brown on the inbounds. Pitt’s senior made his first free throw to tie the game before missing the second.

Howard grabbed the rebound, and was then inexplicably fouled with a few tenths of a second remaining in the game. Howard promptly made his first foul shot before missing the second one intentionally to provide the final score.

Butler entered halftime with an eight-point advantage, 38-30, but eventually blew a 12-point lead and had to rally from a five-point deficit over the last 10:37. The Bulldogs prevailed despite trailing the Panthers in rebounding, 31-21, and assists, 21-12. Butler shot 46 percent (24-of-52) from the field, but won the game by shooting 44 percent (12-of-27) from behind the arc.

Mack scored 30 points in the victory on 10-of-16 shooting, while Howard contributed 16 and six rebounds. They were the only two Bulldogs to reach double digits in scoring, while guard Shawn Vanzant provided seven and four assists.

Butler has now won 11 games in a row SU, and has not lost since a Feb. 3 road setback to Youngstown State that concluded a 1-4 stretch. The Bulldogs are now 7-3 ATS in the NCAA Tournament under head coach Brad Stevens.

Wisconsin cruised past Belmont in last Thursday’s opener as a 4 ½-point ‘chalk,’ 72-58, while the combined 130 points eclipsed the 128-point closing total. The Badgers then held off fifth-seed Kansas State Saturday as a 3 ½-point favorite, 70-65. The combined 135 points toppled the 124-point closing total, helping the ‘over’ improve to 8-2 the previous 10 outings.

Bo Ryan's squad held on after entering halftime with a six-point advantage, 36-30, finishing the game with more assists (12-7) while trailing in rebounding (30-27). The Badgers shot a solid 42 percent (21-of-50) from the field, and 45 percent (9-of-20) from 3-point land.

Forward Jon Leuer led a balanced attack with 19 points and seven rebounds, while guard Jordan Taylor added 12, four and six assists. Guard Josh Gasser had 11 and seven boards, while forward Mike Bruesewitz contributed 11 and six.

Butler and Wisconsin have not squared off since 2001 when the Bulldogs prevailed as an eight-point road underdog, 58-44. There was no total on that contest.

Butler is 6-1-1 ATS its past eight outings versus Big Ten opponents. The Bulldogs have seen the ‘under’ go 6-2 their last eight games overall.

Wisconsin is 10-4 ATS its previous 14 Thursday games, while the ‘under’ is 13-5 the last 18 Thursday affairs.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-24-2011, 12:08 AM

NCAA Tournament Odds: Arizona Wildcats meet Duke Blue Devils

(5) Arizona Wildcats vs. (1) Duke Blue Devils
West Regional Semifinals - Anaheim
Time/TV: Thursday, March 24, 6:45 p.m. (PT) CBS
Odds: Duke by 8½, total at 145

It's all about survival this time of year on the college hardwood. Win and move on, lose and go home, pretty simple stuff.

Arizona's Sean Miller and Duke's Mike Krzyzewski know how true that is as the two coaches bring their respective teams into a Sweet 16 matchup having just survived previous encounters. The defending champion Blue Devils handed Coach K his 900th career dubya in a nervous 73-71 triumph over Michigan while the Wildcats needed a late three-point play and a little help from officials to get past Texas, 70-69.

'Zona has actually survived twice to get to this point, and sophomore Derrick Williams has been the savior both times. The team's leading scorer and rebounder, Williams blocked Memphis' final shot to give Arizona a 77-75 win in the double-Wildcats opener last Friday in Tulsa. Favored by six, Miller's 'Cats failed to cover to break a short two-game win streak at the window.

Williams' late block aside, it was a game Arizona won at the free throw line with the team going 24-of-31 in charity tosses while Memphis scored seven fewer points on seven fewer attempts.

Sunday's win over Texas also came at the free throw line with Williams hitting a late layup to tie the Longhorns 69-apiece before his subsequent foul shot went in to break the deadlock. But it was the quick 5-second call by the refs on the ensuing inbounds play by Texas with nine ticks left that will always be remembered. J'Covan Brown gave the 'Horns one more chance but his late layup attempt didn't go in.

Williams paced the Wildcats, 5½-points underdogs to the Longhorns, in both games with 22 and 17 points. He's the only Arizona player to average double digits on the scoreboard. Solomon Hill (8.0 PPG) stepped up in the Texas game with 16 points, the same amount guard Jordin Mayes added in 19 minutes off the bench after starter Lamont Jones proved ineffective with an 0-for-6 afternoon from the field.

Duke's close shave getting past the Wolverines followed an easy 87-45 tune-up versus Hampton in the Blue Devils' tourney opener. Krzyzewski was able to get 12 players into the game, including freshman Kyrie Irving who was playing for the first time since the Butler game in early-December when he suffered a toe injury.

The frosh was all over the stat sheet in Friday's victory over the Pirates, leading the Devils with 14 points, hitting both of his three-pointers, grabbing four boards, stealing two balls and blocking another. Irving once again came off the bench in the Michigan game, scoring 11 points with most of them from the free-throw line where he made good on 9-of-10 attempts.

Irving managed to play 20 and 21 minutes in the two games. Krzyzewski has said he once again plans to bring the freshman off the bench, but that Irving's playing time would be increased for the matchup with Arizona.

The two schools have split six regular season meetings over the years, with Duke owning the victory the only time the teams faced off at the dance. That lone tourney encounter happened to be the 2001 NCAA Championship, the last time the Wildcats and Blue Devils met.

Duke's Mike Dunleavy Jr. rattled Arizona with a barrage of three-pointers during a Blue Devils run in the early part of the second half to lead the team to an 82-72 win for the title. Eighteen of Dunleavy's game-high 21 points came in the final 20 minutes, and the championship was Duke's last until taking home the 2010 crown.

The winner this time will move on to face either San Diego State or Connecticut. The Aztecs and Huskies tip-off at 4:15 p.m. (PT) on CBS with Duke and Arizona trailing on the same network.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-24-2011, 12:10 AM

NCAA Odds: State Diego State battles Connecticut Huskies

The second-seeded San Diego State Aztecs could have a sizable homecourt advantage when they face the third-seeded Connecticut Huskies in the Sweet 16 on Thursday.

Connecticut is slim one-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 130-points. CBS will have this West Region matchup at 4:15 p.m. (PT) from Anaheim, just about 90 miles from the San Diego State campus.

The West has held pretty much to form so far with only fourth-seed Texas suffering a close loss to fifth-seed Arizona (70-69).

Top-seed Duke (2/3) is the region favorite to make the Final Four, followed by Connecticut (13/4), San Diego State (7/2) and long-shot Arizona (9/1), Connecticut is 14/1 to win the whole thing, while San Diego State is 16/1.

The Aztecs (34-2 SU, 22-12 ATS) are one of two Mountain West Conference teams remaining along with BYU. Only the ACC has more squads left with Duke, North Carolina and Florida State.

BYU is the only team to beat San Diego State all year, 71-58 and 80-67 in the regular season before revenge was served in the conference tourney final. The Aztecs won 72-54 with BYU feeling the loss of suspended forward Brandon Davies.

Coach Steve Fisher has been the San Diego State coach since 1999, making four trips to March Madness. The team just advanced past the first round for the first time in history, but is looking for a lot more.

Fisher has a national title under his belt from the 1989 Michigan team and two more national title game appearances with the ‘Fab Five’ in 1992 and 1993 The latter squad was recently chronicled in a controversial ESPN documentary, but that’s ancient history to the current players, who were barely born back then.

San Diego State’s roster doesn’t have the talent of Fab-Fivers like Chris Webber, Juwan Howard and Jalen Rose, but isn’t that far behind. Sophomore small forward Kawhi Leonard (15.6 PPG, 10.6 RPG) is a potential NBA lottery pick who brings the intensity every night.

Leonard is joined up front by 6-foot-9 senior Malcolm Thomas (11.4 PPG, 8.1 RPG) and 6-foot-8 Billy White (10.1 PPG, 4.4 RPG). White can be inconsistent at times, but he’s averaging 14 points and 13 rebounds in this tournament. This frontcourt is very athletic overall and compares favorably even with most Big East teams.

San Diego beat Northern Colorado in the opening round 68-50 as 14 ½-point favorites. Leonard had 21 points and 10 boards. The next game was a 71-64 OT win over Temple, a fortunate ‘cover’ of the 5 ½-points. A 40-30 advantage on the boards helped the cause.

The Northern Colorado game went ‘under’ the 129 ½-point total and the Temple contest would have too (125-point total) if not for the overtime.

The Huskies (28-9 SU, 20-11 ATS) were one of the most talked about teams heading into March Madness after winning the Big East Tournament with an incredible five wins in five days. That was after entering as a ninth seed (9-9 SU and 7-11 ATS in the conference).

There was thought that Connecticut might have a letdown coming off that performance, but it hasn’t happened. An opening 81-52 blowout of Bucknell as 10-point ‘chalk’ was followed by a 69-58 win over Big East Cincinnati as 3 ½-point favorites.

Connecticut is now 7-0 ATS in its last seven games. The ‘under’ is 3-0 dating back to the 69-66 conference tourney final over Louisville.

Kemba Walker had 33 points last game against Cincinnati. He’s one of the nation’s leading scorers (23.6 PPG), but is also getting help lately from freshman Jeremy Lamb (14.4 PPG the last seven games).

The Aztecs have some experience facing dominant scorers. BYU’s Jimmer Fredette burned them for 43 points in the first meeting on 14-of-24 shooting (58.3 percent). He averaged 27.5 PPG in the final two, but shot a combined 18-of-48 (37.5 percent).

The Aztecs will be facing more length and athleticism up front than they’re used to. Connecticut big man Alex Oriakhi is a shot-blocker at 6-foot-9 and seven-foot Charles Okwandu is also an intimidator in his minutes on the floor.

Coach Jim Calhoun has more faith in his bench than Fisher and his team could be fresher in the final few minutes of a close game.

Neither team is reporting any significant injuries , although Walker is listed as probable after banging his hip last game.

The victor will face the winner of Duke (minus 8 ½) and Arizona in Saturday’s Elite Eight.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-24-2011, 12:11 AM

NHL Betting Preview: Montreal at Boston Bruins

The Canadiens have taken eight of the last 10 from the Boston Bruins.

Two key games are on Thursday's NHL slate with the Habs at
the Bruins and Pens in Philly to face the Flyers.
The Montreal Canadiens travel to TD Garden this Thursday to face the Boston Bruins in what could very well be a preview of a first-round matchup in this year’s NHL playoffs. Game time is set for 4 p.m. (PT) and will be broadcast locally.

Montreal finds itself in the middle of the pack in the Eastern Conference standings with a three-point lead over seventh-place New York and two points behind fifth-place Tampa. It is only three points behind Boston in the Northeast Division with an overall record 40-27-7 straight-up (34-40 against the spread) and 87 total points, but the Bruins have two games in hand.

The Canadiens have struggled to play with any consistency lately and have lost three of their last five games. Their offense exploded in an 8-1 romp over Minnesota this past Sunday as a 108 road underdog but fell completely flat in a 2-0 shutout as home against Buffalo as a 119 favorite on Tuesday night.

Right winger Brian Gionta leads the team in goals this season with 26, but Montreal could still be without point’s leader Tomas Plekanec. He has been out since March 15 with a lower body injury and is listed as questionable for this game along with Jeff Halpern and Mathieu Darche. The injury situation will certainly not help a Canadien team that is ranked 22nd in the NHL in scoring with an average of 2.66 goals a game.

Carey Price should get the start in goal against Boston. He has started 63 of Montreal’s 74 games this season and has a goals-against-average of 2.35 and a .922 save percentage.

Boston has been up and down as well with a 4-3-3 SU record in its last 10 games. This past Saturday the Bruins lost to Toronto 5-2 as a 125 road favorite, but were able to bounce back with a 4-1 victory over New Jersey as a 130 home favorite on Tuesday. They are currently 40-33-10 SU (34-38 ATS) and clinging to third-place in the East with 90 points.

Scoring has been an issue for Boston over this recent rough patch with just 23 goals in its last 10 games as opposed to a season average of 2.99 goals a game, which is fifth-best in the league. A good sign for Bruin fans is that left winger Milan Lucic, who leads the team with 30 goals and is second in total points with 55, broke out of his scoring slump with a goal and assist against New Jersey and Patrice Bergeron added two assists after recording just one point in his previous four games.

Tim Thomas, who looked especially sharp in goal against the Devils, is expected to get the call for Thursday’s game. He has a 2.06 GGA and a .937 save percentage in 48 starts this season.

Montreal is 22-18 as a favorite this season and 18-16 as an underdog. The total has gone ‘over’ in three of its last five games but has stayed ‘under’ in 54 percent of its games overall.

Boston is 29-22 as a favorite and 11-10 as an underdog. The total has gone ‘over’ in five of its last seven games and is 27-35-10 for the year.

Head-to-head, the Canadiens have won eight of the last 10 games including a 4-1 victory on March 8 as a slight 105 home underdog. This followed a 3-2 OT win on Jan. 8 as a 109 home favorite and an 8-6 loss as a 163 road underdog on Feb. 9. The total was 1-0-2 in those three games.

This time around stick with Boston to tie the season series as a home favorite in a game that stays ‘under’ a projected total line of five.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-24-2011, 12:12 AM

NBA Betting Preview: Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks haven’t impressed bettors at home by going 16-18-2 ATS.
Not Minnesota. The Timberwolves are pure Mr. Hyde – bad.

Minnesota takes it 17-54 record – second-worst in the NBA only to Cleveland – into Dallas for 5:35 p.m. PT Thursday game against the Mavericks.

The Timberwolves have one thing and only one thing going for them: Kevin Love. And he may not play.

Love had a 53-game double-double streak earlier this season, longest in the NBA since 1973-74. But Love aggravated a groin injury this past Sunday against Sacramento in Minnesota’s last game. Love left early in the second quarter having been held to no points and three rebounds against the Kings during a 127-95 embarrassing home loss.

It was the Timberwolves’ second worst home loss in franchise history. It was just Sacramento’s eighth road victory in 33 away games. Minnesota was a 4 ½-point favorite with the combined 222 points going ‘over’ the 214 ½-point total.

Oh, yes, Michael Beasley played only 14 minutes in the loss suffering from a sore hip. Beasley is the Timberwolves’ only other decent player besides Love.

Now the Timberwolves, losers of 15 of their last 19, bring their 5-30 road mark to Dallas. Minnesota has dropped seven of its last eight games on the highway going 3-5 ATS.

A key question is can probable lame duck coach Kurt Rambis get his sad sack Timberwolves to refocus during their final 11 games of the season starting against Dallas?

Certainly the spread is going to be astronomical once the oddsmaker finally gets a better read on Love’s status to put out a number. Call Love ‘questionable’ for now, although there’s no reason for the Timberwolves to risk their franchise player by using him if he’s not 100 percent.

The Mavericks are battling the Lakers for the second-best record in the Western Conference. Dallas, 49-21, has lost five of its past nine games.

Dallas did get back on track whipping Golden State, 101-73, this past Sunday in its last game as 8 ½-point home ‘chalk.’ The combined 174 points went well ‘under’ the 212-point total. Dirk Nowitzki scored 20 points for the Mavericks, who clinched their 11th consecutive playoff berth with the win.

Peja Stojakovic chipped in 17 points for the Mavericks in playing for the first time in seven games following a stiff neck. The Mavericks won without third-leading scorer and rebounder Shawn Marion, out with a sprained right wrist. Marion is hoping to play against Minnesota.

The Mavericks might be open to letting the Timberwolves get a ‘backdoor’ cover since they begin a six-game road trip following this matchup. That means Dallas coach Rick Carlisle could give extra rest to some of his veterans such as Jason Kidd and Nowitzki if the Mavericks built a big lead.

Dallas has won 25 of 36 games at home, but is an unimpressive 16-18-2 ATS at American Airlines Center. The Mavericks have been a much better spread team on the road going 21-13 ATS.

The Mavericks did cover as 10-point favorites when they hosted the Timberwolves on Dec. 1 winning, 100-86. The combined 186 points went ‘under’ the 205 ½-point total. Marion had 16 points and eight rebounds. Tyson Chandler grabbed 18 rebounds.

The teams met again on March 7 and the Mavericks just nipped the Timberwolves, 108-105, failing to cover as 6 ½-point road favorites. The combined 213 points went ‘over’ the 210-point total.

Love had 23 points and 17 rebounds in the loss. Beasley contributed 20 points and nine rebounds.

Nowitzki led the Mavericks with 25 points. It was the 20th time in the last 22 meetings Dallas has beaten the Timberwolves. Minnesota, however, has covered in eight of its last nine visits to Dallas.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-24-2011, 12:15 AM

Duke leads NCAA odds field in West Region

Like the other brackets, the NCAA Tournament West Regional has similar storylines heading into the Sweet 16.

There’s a strong No. 1 seed in defending champion Duke. There’s a Cinderella team, Arizona. There’s a team from the bloodied but still alive Big East Conference in Connecticut and there’s a newcomer in San Diego State.

Oddsmakers see Duke as the heavy favorite to win the West Regional. The Blue Devils are 8 ½-point favorites to beat Arizona Thursday in Anaheim, Calif., 6:45 p.m. PT on CBS. The ‘over/under’ is 144 ½.

The Blue Devils are in the round of 16 for the 12th time in 14 years. Mike Krzyzewski’s team has won its last eight NCAA Tournament games. The Blue Devils have covered eight of their last 12 matchups this season.

Duke is minus 320 to capture the West Regional, according to odds at Bookmaker.com. Connecticut is next at plus 430 followed by San Diego State at 5/1 and Arizona at 10/1.

Duke also has the shortest odds of winning the tournament at plus 255. Ohio State and Kansas are each next at plus 265. No other team is lower than 11/1.

Connecticut and San Diego State both are 20/1. Arizona is 25/1.

The Blue Devils had covered four in a row, including destroying Hampton, 87-45, as 25-point favorites in the first-round of the tournament. Teams rarely win the tournament unless surviving at least one scare and the Blue Devils had theirs this past Sunday nipping Michigan, 73-71, as 12 ½-point favorites.

The combined 144 points went ‘over’ the 136-point total. It was just the fourth time in their last 15 games the Blue Devils had gone ‘over’ the total.

Sparked by Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler, the Blue Devils are trying to become just the third school to repeat as national champions since 1974. Florida was the last to accomplish the feat winning in 2006 and ’07. Duke achieved it in 1991 and ’92 under Krzyzewski.

Arizona is a young team that has covered just three of its last 10 games. The Wildcats, though, have perhaps the best big man in the tournament, 6-foot-8 forward Derrick Williams.

The Wildcats upset Texas this past Sunday, 70-69, as 5 ½-point underdogs. The combined 139 points dipped ‘under’ the 141 ½-point total.

Arizona held the Longhorns to 45.3 percent shooting from the floor after allowing its previous nine opponents to make nearly 50 percent from the field. Arizona opened its NCAA Tournament by edging Memphis, 77-75, failing to cover as 5 ½-point favorites. The combined 152 points went ‘over’ the 141 ½-point total.

Like Duke, Arizona has a strong NCAA Tournament tradition having qualified 25 consecutive years until missing last season. The Wildcats have covered in nine of their last 13 non-conference matchups. Duke is 15-7 ATS in its past 22 non-league contests.

The Big East has only two of its 11 teams in the tournament remaining. Connecticut is one of them along with Marquette.

The Huskies are ‘pick’ versus San Diego State with the ‘over/under’ at 130. Game time is Thursday at 4:15 p.m. PT with CBS broadcasting.

The Huskies are riding a lot of momentum having beaten DePaul, Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Syracuse and Louisville during a span of five days to capture the Big East Conference Tournament.

Connecticut followed that up by waltzing over Bucknell, 81-52, in the first round of the NCAA Tournament covering as 10-point favorites and then defeating fellow Big East school Cincinnati, 69-58, this past Saturday as 3 ½-point favorites. The Huskies have covered in their last seven games.

Guard Kemba Walker has been nearly a one-man wrecking crew for the Huskies scoring 18 points against Bucknell and hitting for 33 versus Cincinnati. He’s 20-for-20 from the foul line in the NCAA Tournament.

San Diego State, in the Sweet 16 for the first time, rolled past Northern Colorado, 68-50, covering as 14 ½-point favorites in the first-round. The Aztecs then pulled off the luckiest cover of the tournament by downing Temple, 71-64, in double overtime this past Saturday as six-point favorites.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-24-2011, 06:26 PM

Mavericks giving 15 points to Love-less Wolves

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES (17-54)

at DALLAS MAVERICKS (49-21)

Tip-off: Thursday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Dallas -15, Total: 209.5

The Mavs have struggled with some of the Western Conference’s powers of late. But on Thursday night, they’ll get to take out their frustrations on a Timberwolves team that’s looking more like a D-League contender.

Minnesota will be without All-Star forward Kevin Love, who left Sunday’s game against the Kings with a groin injury. When Love left that game, the Wolves trailed Sacramento 45-40 with 3:18 left in the second quarter. Over the remaining 27:18, they were outscored 82-55, at home, by the only other Western Conference team with fewer than 20 wins. The Wolves turned the ball over 25 times in that game, the second time in four games that they’ve topped 25 TOs (they’ve lost four in a row SU, 1-3 ATS during that span). They’re on pace to become the first team since 2006-07 (the Knicks and Magic) to average more than 17 turnovers per game in a season (17.2).

Minnesota was already in rebuilding mode, and now it will be playing the unproven Anthony Randolph in Love’s spot. Since joining the Wolves at the trade deadline, Randolph has a plus-minus per 48 minutes of -15.7, worst on the team.

Dallas has been far from sharp of late and is losing ground for the No. 2 seed in the West (currently 1.5 behind the Lakers). In the Mavs’ past nine games, they’re just 4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS, including losses to the Spurs, Blazers, Lakers and Hornets. They’ve had little trouble scoring of late, though. Since the All-Star break, they’re scoring 105.7 PPG and shooting 49.7% from the field. They got sharpshooting forward Peja Stojakovic back in the lineup on Sunday, and he responded by hitting 6-of-11 shots, including 5-of-8 threes, and scoring 17 points in just 19 minutes.

The Mavericks have had some defensive issues on the road, but they’ve clamped down on their past three opponents at home. The Lakers and high-scoring Spurs were both held below 100 points. And on Sunday, they held the Warriors to 73 points on 35.1% shooting.

Dallas has beaten Minnesota 18 times in 19 games SU, and there’s little doubt that the Timberwolves will be overmatched Thursday night. But there are a couple things working in their favor. They did score an upset win in Dallas in February last season, 117-108, a game in which they were 10-point underdogs. The Wolves are actually 8-3 ATS as double-digit underdogs this season (all road games). And Dallas starts a crucial six-game road trip on Saturday; if this game is out of hand in the third quarter, they’ll likely take their foot off the gas and allow Minnesota to pull within that monster point spread. Still, considering their lack of effort on defense in their last game, and the loss of their best (and hardest-working) player, I can’t trust these Wolves even getting 15.

After the Kings loss, Minnesota veteran big man Anthony Tolliver opined to reporters: “As part of being professionals, you have to learn how to play every game the same. Unfortunately, we don't. A lot of guys on this team don't bring it every night.” It’s late March, they’re 37 games under .500 and they’re on the road. I don’t think they’ll bring it tonight. My pick is Dallas. The FoxSheets are a bit torn on this one, but offer some info that goes against the Wolves:

MINNESOTA is 15-31 ATS (32.6%, -19.1 Units) versus good 3-point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was MINNESOTA 99.4, OPPONENT 108.7 - (Rating = 1*).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-24-2011, 06:27 PM

Banged-up Jazz host Hornets on Thursday

NEW ORLEANS HORNETS (40-31)

at UTAH JAZZ (36-36)

Tip-off: Thursday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: New Orleans -1.5, Total: 191

A month ago, this would have been a premiere point guard matchup between Chris Paul and Deron Williams. A week ago, it would have been Chris Paul and Devin Harris. Instead, it’s looking like Chris Paul versus Earl Watson.

The Jazz not only threw it into rebuilding mode when they dealt Deron Williams at the trade deadline, but now they’re walking wounded, as well as weary, after playing in Oklahoma City Wednesday night. Among their injuries: Harris (hamstring) and Derrick Favors (ankle), the two cornerstones of the Williams trade, are both doubtful. Andrei Kirilenko is questionable at best after tweaking his knee Wednesday night, and leading scorer Al Jefferson is probable, but dealing with a finger injury. Mehmet Okur is still out for the season.

The Jazz were game against the Thunder Wednesday night, though, within arm’s length until midway through the fourth quarter in a 106-94 loss. Jefferson went for 32 points on 14-of-18 shooting and 12 rebounds, and Paul Millsap added 18 points and seven boards. C.J. Miles was ice cold though, going 2-for-12 the field. He’s now 3 for his last 21. Their bench was completely outmatched. Rookie Gordon Hayward, who replaced Kirilenko, scored seven points on 1-of-10 shooting, while Raja Bell had three points in 21 minutes and had a plus/minus of -17 on the night.

While the Jazz are on a quick turnaround, the Hornets haven’t played since Saturday. They lost a tough home game against Boston that day, 89-85, as Chris Paul had a brutal game. While he had 15 assists, Paul was 0-for-9 from the field, the first time in more than four years he failed to make a field goal in a game. The long rest was needed for New Orleans, as all five of its starters played 36-plus minutes, and its starting frontcourt logged 41-plus minutes apiece. The off-night broke up a string of strong games for Paul. After returning from a concussion on March 12, he averaged 28.7 PPG on 58.5% shooting from the field and 11.3 APG. With his body seemingly wearing down over the past two seasons, the extra rest means more to New Orleans than it would to most teams. A well-rested Paul could be a vintage Paul once again.

The Hornets have dropped eight of 10 games, SU and ATS, against Utah, but this is going to be a much different—much weaker—Jazz team they’ll encounter Thursday night. The fresh legs of Paul and Company should get the better of Utah on the road. They’re a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS with three-plus days of rest this year, while Utah is 7-11 ATS (39%) on zero days rest. My pick is New Orleans.

The FoxSheets has numerous trends to back the Hornets, including this one:

Play On - Road favorites (NEW ORLEANS) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season. (53-21 over the last 5 seasons, 71.6%, +29.9 units. Rating = 3*).

I’m also going with the Under, due in part to this rare five-star trend from the FoxSheets:

NEW ORLEANS is 21-4 UNDER (84.0%, +16.6 Units) after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread this season. The average score was NEW ORLEANS 90.9, OPPONENT 89.0 - (Rating = 5*).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-24-2011, 06:28 PM

UConn-San Diego State meet in pick 'em matchup

#3 seed CONNECTICUT HUSKIES (28-9)

vs. #2 seed SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS (34-2)

NCAA Tournament – Regional Semifinals (Sweet 16)
Tip-off: Thursday, 7:15 p.m. EDT – Anaheim, CA
Line: Pick, Total: 128.5

When Connecticut and San Diego State step onto the floor in Anaheim, CA Thursday night, it will be a matchup of two teams whose college basketball legacies are far more contrasting than their styles of play. Connecticut won its first NCAA Tournament game 55 years ago. San Diego State won its first game last Thursday. The Huskies enter the game 48-28 all-time in tournament play, while the Aztecs are 2-6. You get the point. Yet, in the words of Mark McGwire, “I’m not here to talk about the past.” This matchup is about the present, and features two of the most athletic and relentless teams left in the tournament. One squad (Connecticut) is led by a star player who has had about a year’s worth of national television exposure in the last two weeks, while the other team will be lead into battle by the most recognizable member of the team, head coach Steve Fisher. Nonetheless, few squads left in the Big Dance symbolize the true meaning of team as much as Connecticut and San Diego State do.

Connecticut advanced to the Sweet 16 the same way all of the Big East teams left standing have advanced to the Sweet 16, by beating another Big East team. The Huskies got by Cincinnati last Saturday night in Washington, D.C., 69-58, thanks to another super-human effort from Kemba Walker, who scored 33 points, with six rebounds, five assists, and was a perfect 14-for-14 from the FT line. Jeremy Lamb was far from silent, adding 14 points on a night in which he only missed two shots. Meanwhile, the team’s secret weapon, Jamal Coombs-McDaniel, tallied 10 points off the bench. Alex Oriakhi hauled in 11 rebounds, helping the Huskies maintain two statistical trends that have to be pleasing to Jim Calhoun. Connecticut has outrebounded its first two opponents by double digits in both games, 49-23 over Bucknell, and 35-23 over Cincinnati. Connecticut also protected the ball, keeping its turnover totals in the single digits for both games. Walker averaged 25.5 PPG in the two wins, and seemed to have bounced back nicely from his five games in five days Big East championship stretch, as he played a total of 73 out of a possible 80 minutes in the two games in DC. Now he must prepare for a major challenge defensively from a long and physical San Diego State squad that will be keying on him from the opening tip.

While the Aztecs are less experienced in tournament play, they grew up quickly in advancing to the Sweet 16. SDSU needed double overtime to get by Temple last Saturday afternoon, 71-64. The Aztecs displayed their poise in a game where they trailed by three in the first overtime, while their leading scorer, Kawhi Leonard (15.6 PPG, 10.6 RPG) struggled with his shots for most of the night, finishing 5-for-14 from the floor. Senior Billy White picked up some of the slack, posting a double-double (16 points and 13 boards) to lead the charge. White nailed a jumper in the second OT that put his team up for good, and the Aztecs clamped down on the Owls defensively, holding them to just three points on 1-for-8 shooting in the second overtime period. Malcolm Thomas had four blocked shots on the day, the biggest one coming against Lavoy Allen with the team holding onto a three-point lead. SDSU scored just 18 points in the second half, as it was forced to play its first double-overtime game in seven years. "We were tired, but we knew that we had to win this game," Aztecs point guard D.J. Gay said after playing all 50 minutes. "We just wanted it a little bit more. We just sucked it up." Exactly how well-rested and prepared the Aztecs are for the task of stopping college basketball’s version of the Energizer bunny, Kemba Walker, will go a long ways toward determining who advances to Saturday’s regional final.

The Huskies went 3-0 in the Maui Invitational Tournament, 5-0 in the Big East Tournament, and are 2-0 so far in the NCAA Tournament. Add to that the fact that they have one of the biggest non-conference road wins of the college basketball season with its 82-81 overtime victory over Texas, and Connecticut is well positioned for the tournament atmosphere they will face in Anaheim, even with the game being about 90 miles from San Diego State’s campus. The Huskies are 20-11 ATS (65%) overall, including 16-6 ATS (73%) after an SU win. SDSU is 22-12 ATS (65%) overall, but only 4-4 ATS on a neutral court. For these reasons we like Connecticut to beat the Aztecs, and find the below favorable FoxSheets trends supporting this outcome.

CONNECTICUT is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season. The average score was CONNECTICUT 78.4, OPPONENT 66.7 - (Rating = 6*).

CONNECTICUT is 10-2 ATS (83.3%, +7.8 Units) in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game this season. The average score was CONNECTICUT 71.7, OPPONENT 69.4 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-24-2011, 06:29 PM

Duke favored by 8.5 points over Arizona

#5 seed ARIZONA WILDCATS (29-7)

vs. #1 seed DUKE BLUE DEVILS (32-4)

NCAA Tournament – Regional Semifinals (Sweet 16)
Tip-off: Thursday, 9:45 p.m. EDT – Anaheim, CA
Line: Duke -8.5, Total: 148

Derrick Williams and many of his teammates are going home. Williams grew up in southern California, playing his high school ball in La Mirada, about 15 minutes from the Honda Center, where Thursday night’s Sweet 16 West Regional showdown between Duke and Arizona will take place. Among his teammates, Williams has a lot of company on the homecoming theme. Starting junior Kyle Fogg grew up 10 minutes away in Brea, while reserve Alex Jacobson is from Santa Ana. Freshman guard Jordin Mayes and sophomore starting forward Solomon Hill are both from Los Angeles. The Wildcats know the region well overall, playing at least two games in the Los Angeles region every year against USC and UCLA, not counting the games of the Pac-10 Tournament in Staples Arena. It would be easy to get caught up in the distractions of re-connecting this week with family and friends from the neighborhood, but this time the trip back to SoCal is not about pleasure. "It's good to be home, but we're here for business right now," Fogg said. If the tone sounds serious, it’s because the mission is too. It’s because the opponent is Duke, defending national champion Duke, coached by Michael William Krzyzewski, who at 900 wins, is just three victories away from becoming the all-time winningest Division I men’s coach ever. Arizona can be sure of one thing, for Duke and Coach K, the next win will be just as important to them as the last 900. It’s time to get down to business.

Duke is here in the Sweet 16 after surviving one of those scare games that every team hoping to be crowned the champion (or repeat champion) must survive. The Blue Devils edged Michigan 73-71. Duke led by 15 with just under 11 minutes to play, yet saw the lead dwindle to one point twice in the final 90 seconds. Darius Morris’ floater in the lane to tie the game as time expired just bounced off the back iron, and with that, the Blue Devils punched their ticket to Anaheim, and Mike Krzyzewski had his milestone 900th win, the hard way. "We told our kids it would be like playing Butler in the national championship -- a very similar, tough-minded, really, really good basketball team," Krzyzewski said. "I'm proud of our effort and obvious ecstatic that we're moving on." Nolan Smith led the way with 24 points, with Kyle Singler adding 13 and Kyrie Irving scoring 11 in his second game back from the toe injury that kept him off the court since early December. Irving has played 41 minutes in the two games back, and is averaging 12.5 points so far. Krzyzewski said Wednesday he hopes to play Irving even more against Arizona. "He played significant minutes last week when I thought he was going to play limited minutes, so I mentioned that he will play significant minutes (Thursday)," Krzyzewski said. "I don't know what that means. It means he's going to play great minutes hopefully." Since scoring 29 points in the opening round of the ACC Tournament, Kyle Singler (16.9 PPG) is averaging 12.0 PPG on 39% shooting. Thursday would be a good night for Singler to break out of his mini-slump.

Arizona is coming off a highly-entertaining, mildly-controversial 70-69 victory over Texas in which its star player, Derrick Williams (19.1 PPG, 8.1 RPG), did what stars do at the end of the game, he made a season-saving play. Williams sliced through the Longhorns defense with 9.6 seconds left, banking in an off-balance lay-up, plus the foul, converting the three-point play to give his team the one-point lead that they would maintain. Williams said he was excited and surprised that the shot went in, since he admitted that he wasn’t looking at the basket when he released it. (sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good). In their opening round game, it was again Williams that saved the day in that contest with a key blocked shot with 0:02 to go as the ‘Cats held on to defeat Memphis for the two-point win. Now back into the tournament this season, after missing it last year for the first time in 25 seasons, second-year coach Sean Miller understands how special the opportunity is for the program. "I can't tell you how excited we are to be moving on to the Sweet 16," Miller said. "It's one thing to be a part of this tournament, but when you have the experience of advancing, it's second-to-none as a college basketball program, players, coaches."

These teams last met nearly 10 years ago in the 2001 NCAA Championship game when Duke won 82-72. Arizona is 18-15 ATS (55%) overall and 5-3 ATS (63%) on a neutral court. Duke carries similar ATS marks overall (20-15, 57%) and in neutral-site games (5-3, 63%), but is just 4-4 ATS in its past eight games. The Wildcats are 10-4 ATS (71%) after an ATS win, 9-4 ATS (69%) outside of their conference and 5-3 ATS (63%) as an underdog this season. Duke will likely win this game outright, but Arizona will cover the rather large spread. These two FoxSheets trends also support the Wildcats.

Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ARIZONA) - after having covered 3 of their last 4 against the spread against opponent after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread. (251-167 over the last 5 seasons.) (60%, +67.3 units. Rating = 2*).

DUKE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after 2 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers this season. The average score was DUKE 78.2, OPPONENT 71.5 - (Rating = 2*).

This FoxSheets trend also likes the Over in this game.

Play Over - All teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (ARIZONA, DUKE) - in a game involving two good three point shooting teams (>=36.5%), in a game involving two good rebounding teams (+3 to +6 reb/game). (110-60 since 1997.) (64.7%, +44 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-24-2011, 06:30 PM

Butler goes for 12th straight win facing Wisconsin

#8 seed BUTLER BULLDOGS (25-9)

vs. #4 seed WISCONSIN BADGERS (25-8)

NCAA Tournament – Regional Semifinals (Sweet 16)
Tip-off: Thursday, 9:57 p.m. EDT – New Orleans, LA
Line: Wisconsin -4.5, Total: 124

Just when you thought it was safe to get back into the Sweet 16. They’re baaaack!

Of all the teams left in the field at this very moment, only Duke has won more tournament games in the last two years than the Butler Bulldogs. While the conventional wisdom has been that this year’s Butler team does not compare to last year’s NCAA national runner-ups (hey, who does?), the bottom line is this: the music is still playing and the Bulldogs are still dancing. In advancing to the Sweet 16 with two heart-stopping, nail-biting, mind-blowing, last-second victories, Brad Stevens’ team showed that it is nowhere close to running out of its poise, its persistence, and yes, its luck. Now the Bulldogs must venture to a city whose nickname doesn’t begin to represent Butler’s dramatic style of play (The Big Easy), taking on a Wisconsin team that is more accustomed to being the underdog at this stage of the tournament, not the favorite.

While the finish of Butler’s last two games are already legend, Wisconsin’s ticket into the Sweet 16 wasn’t exactly a freebie either, the Badgers had to survive a mammoth 38-point effort from Kansas State guard Jacob Pullen to squeeze out a 70-65 win last week in Tucson. The game was highlighted by a matchup of two of the best guards in the country, KSU’s Pullen, and Wisconsin’s Jordan Taylor. Pullen may have won the scoring battle, but it was Taylor who clinched the war, overcoming a horrific 2-for-16 shooting day to hit two big free throws late, giving his team a three-point advantage. Then with time running out in the game, Taylor defended Pullen on the wing, and blocked his game-tying, three-point attempt. Wisconsin secured possession and the Badgers were on their way to the Sweet 16. Taylor earned praise for his clutch defense in the midst of a bad shooting night. "He was having a rough shooting night, but he was a taskmaster of his own skills and his own abilities," Wisconsin coach Bo Ryan said. "He's not going to throw the rest of it away simply because things have gotten away from him. He's that dedicated to being the leader on this team on the floor." Jon Leuer overcame a cut on his head early, and foul trouble late in the game to lead his team with 19 points and seven boards. The Badgers were 9-of-20 (45%) from beyond the arc versus the Wildcats. Despite that impressive number, they may need to shoot and defend the three-ball better against the Bulldogs if they are to avoid the upset.

While the unbelievable ending and the range of accompanying emotions has dominated the national post mortem of Butler’s victory over Pittsburgh, the things that Wisconsin needs to be most worried about first and foremost is stopping Shelvin Mack. Before Mack almost went down into college basketball history for committing the most costly, ill-advised shooting foul in tournament history, he lit up the Panthers for 30 points on 10-of-16 shooting (7-for-12 beyond the arc). Expect Jordan Taylor to draw the assignment of checking Mack, just as he drew the short straw last week and checked the hot Pullen for the evening. Matt Howard had 16 points and six rebounds against Pittsburgh, including perhaps the biggest free throw in school history with eight-tenths of a second left in regulation. Lost in his game-ending heroics is the fact that he was able to stay out of foul trouble (one personal foul the entire game) against the physical Pitt front line. If Howard and center Andrew Smith can hold their own against the Badgers big men, Butler could have a chance. Despite being outrebounded by 11, the Bulldogs did secure the biggest rebound of the game, which turned into the game-winning FT. Wisconsin is hoping that its defense, which has allowed just 58.5 PPG (4th best in the NCAA), can contain the Bulldogs perimeter shooters (Butler was 12-of-27 from downtown versus Pittsburgh).

In a venue, the Superdome, where the lack of poise in crucial moments (Fred Brown, Chris Webber) has been the difference between NCAA fame and infamy, remember, Butler has four guards on its team (two juniors, two seniors) with Final Four and title game experience. The deeper the Bulldogs go into the tournament, that experience becomes even more crucial in close games. The pick here is Butler, and the FoxSheets provide two highly-rated trends to further support this pick.

BUTLER is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was BUTLER 67.6, OPPONENT 59.4 - (Rating = 4*).

BUTLER is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all neutral court lined games this season. The average score was BUTLER 71.7, OPPONENT 67.4 - (Rating = 3*).

Although both of these teams have played more games finishing Over than Under this season, the FoxSheets show a highly-rated coaching trend expecting the Under to occur for Thursday’s game.

Bo Ryan is 34-14 UNDER (70.8%, +18.6 Units) in road games after a game committing 8 or fewer turnovers as the coach of WISCONSIN. The average score was WISCONSIN 61.7, OPPONENT 59.2 - (Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-24-2011, 06:32 PM

BYU tries to beat Florida for 2nd straight year

#3 seed BYU COUGARS (32-4)

vs. #2 seed FLORIDA GATORS (28-7)

NCAA Tournament – Regional Semifinals (Sweet 16)
Tip-off: Thursday, 7:27 p.m. EDT – New Orleans, LA
Line: Florida -3, Total: 149

Jimmer Fredette as a scorer has become like that un-hittable pitcher who continues to retire the opposing lineup in order. Batters come up, batters go down, one-two-three. In this case, the batters have been opposing team’s defenses. Brigham Young has surged to a 32-4 record this season, and outside of Creighton, Fresno Pacific, Mississippi Valley State and Hawaii, who held Fredette to 13,13, 16, and 16 points respectively (for the record, he only played 22 minutes against mighty Fresno Pacific), all of the other teams on the Cougars schedule have had to settle for containing Fredette the same way a bar legally serves patrons: 21 and over only. Besides those four games in the teens, Fredette’s lowest scoring game has been 21 points. His highest game: 52 points. His nation’s best scoring average is 28.8 PPG, with 12 games scoring in the 30’s, three games in the 40’s, and the 52-point night versus New Mexico. If he was a pitcher, that would be a lot of whiffs for the other team. Thursday night in the Louisiana Superdome, Florida is set to step up to the plate for a taste of Jimmer Mania, with a trip to the Elite Eight on the line, and while the approach of other teams may have been to bring a bigger bat into play, Florida has some prior experience to draw on what it hopes will make a difference.

BYU actually defeated Florida in a first round game of the 2010 NCAA Tournament, 99-92, in double overtime. While the Cougars got a gigantic boost from Michael Loyd, a sophomore guard at the time who scored 26 points off the bench, Fredette was still the headliner, as he shot 13-for-26, scoring 37 points, and hitting two key three-pointers in the second overtime to put the game away. Chandler Parsons remembers the performance well: "They've got a complete team. We had a taste playing against them last year and now we understand just how good they are. We don't have to watch film to understand that. They're strong and they execute."

Florida advanced to this Sweet 16 matchup with a 73-65 victory over UCLA. Erving Walker scored 21 points in the contest, including a clutch three-pointer with 1:14 remaining to seal the deal against a courageous Bruins team. Florida held UCLA to 41.8% shooting from the floor, and more importantly, forced its opponent into a 3-for-13 night from beyond the arc (23%). The Gators will need to display that level of perimeter defense and then some against a BYU team that is shooting an impressive 36.5% from downtown, and whose star player is stroking the three-ball at a near 41% clip.

Brigham Young is in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1981 following Saturday’s 89-67 defeat of Gonzaga. Fredette zigged his way thru the ’Zags defense en route to scoring 34, opening a few more eyes along the way. "He can shoot it from anywhere, as soon as he steps on the floor," said Gonzaga's Steven Gray, now on the long list of guards who couldn't stop Fredette. "Believe it or not I thought we defended him OK," Gonzaga coach Mark Few said. Fredette shot 7-for-12 from beyond the arc, and 11-for-23 overall. If Gonzaga was looking to hold the All-American to under 50% shooting: Mission Accomplished. As for Fredette and the team goals that he set for himself and his squad, Saturday’s victory was one more chore that they could check off the to-do list. After all, 30 years is a long time to wait to return to the Sweet 16. "It was very important," Fredette said. "It was one of my goals coming into this season. I wanted to get to the second weekend and so did this team, so it's extremely important." A little more Jimmer-Mania in “The Big Easy” this weekend and the goal of advancing to the second weekend could be replaced by the dream of advancing to action on the first weekend in April. Florida will not make it easy on him. At 62.8 PPG, Florida has the 47th-rated defense in all of college basketball.

Although Florida is a pedestrian 16-14 ATS (53%) overall, it is 11-5 ATS (68.8%) in non-home games, including 5-2 ATS (71%) on a neutral court. The Cougars are 15-17 ATS (47%) overall, 3-6 ATS (33%) in neutral-site games and a horrific 2-12 ATS (14%) following an ATS win. The FoxSheets provide two more reasons to pick Florida to win and cover.

FLORIDA is 11-3 ATS (78.6%, +7.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The average score was FLORIDA 72.1, OPPONENT 65.0 - (Rating = 2*).

FLORIDA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. The average score was FLORIDA 74.8, OPPONENT 63.4 - (Rating = 2*).

Nine of the past 10 games for the Gators have finished Over the total and this FoxSheets trend also predicts the Over will occur on Thursday.

FLORIDA is 10-2 OVER (83.3%, +7.8 Units) versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots after 15+ games this season. The average score was FLORIDA 75.2, OPPONENT 67.3 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-24-2011, 06:35 PM

Thursday's Trends to Watch

March 24, 2011

BYU vs. Florida (NCAA Southeast at New Orleans)...Florida is just 7-13 vs. the spread as chalk this season. The Gators have also been one of the premier “over” teams in the country (16-5-1 their last 22 on board).

Butler vs. Wisconsin (NCAA Southeast at New Orleans)...Butler HC Brad Stevens is 14-2 SU during his career in March. The Bulldogs, who bring an 11-game SU win streak into tonight, have also covered their last four Big Dance outings, all as a dog, with each of those decided by 1 or 2 points. Butler is also “under” 6-2 its last 8 this season. The Badgers, however, are “over” in 8 of their last 10 games.

UConn vs. San Diego State (NCAA West at Anaheim)...The Huskies are hot, with wins and covers in seven straight beginning at the Big East Tourney two weeks ago. UConn is also “under” 13-7-1 its last 21 games. Meanwhile, the Aztecs have covered 6 of their last 7, but like the Huskies have been trending “under” most of the season (SDSU “under” 19-8 since late November).

Arizona vs. Duke (NCAA West at Anaheim)...The Wildcats are only 3-7 vs. the number their last 10 on the board. As for the Blue Devils, note that nine of their last ten wins have been by DD margins (the exception last Sunday vs. Michigan), and they’re “under” 11-4 their last 15 games entering tonight.

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