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**StarDust Bum** · 03-22-2011, 10:53 PM

NBA Betting Preview: Orlando Magic at Knicks

Wednesday’s game in New York is a makeup from a November postponement.
Both the New York Knicks and the Orlando Magic have their sights set on the Eastern Conference playoff race, and both really think that they can do some tremendous damage in the postseason. These two potential playoff combatants meet on the hallowed court of Madison Square Garden on Wednesday night in NBA betting action.

Tip-off from Madison Square Garden in the Big Apple is slated for 5:00 p.m. (PT).

Even though the Magic are just 1-8 against the spread in their last nine games overall, a three-game winning streak has them believing they can run down the Miami Heat for the Southeast Division title over the course of the last 11 games of the season. It's going to take at least nine wins in all likelihood to get the job done, and maybe even more. If it happens, Dwight Howard has to be considered a legitimate option for the league's MVP honors.

Simply put, "Superman" does everything for the Magic except sell popcorn at the new Amway Center. Sure, he doesn't shoot threes, and his free-throw percentage is still reminiscent of what Shaquille O'Neal had back in the day, but all of the other numbers are fantastic.

Howard is averaging 23.0 PPG, 14.3 RPG, 1.3 SPG, and 2.4 BPG, and shooting 60.0 percent from the field. He leads the team in all five categories.

Howard's problem is that he hasn't had a heck of a lot of help. Sure, if you look at this team's stats for the season, you see six other players averaging double digits in scoring. What you don't see are any other legitimate superstars. Jason Richardson is as close as it gets, and his 14.2 PPG just isn't cutting it.

The Knicks certainly don't lack for stars, but it is clear they still don't have the role players in place to make a huge run towards the NBA title quite yet.

Carmelo Anthony needed to get his eye stitched up after suffering a laceration on Monday against the Boston Celtics, but he should be fine. Since coming over from the Denver Nuggets, 'Melo has been good for 24.3 PPG and 6.0 RPG, and he is shooting a blistering 42.1 percent from downtown.

Chauncey Billups, his counterpart both here and in Denver, might only be shooting 40.5 percent, but he is averaging 18.8 PPG and is proving to be a fantastic scoring option for the men in orange and blue.

The real battle though will come in the paint, when Howard takes on Amare Stoudemire. The former Phoenix Suns standout has done a fantastic job in his first year with the Knicks, averaging 25.9 PPG and 8.4 RPG. He's also blocking just under two shots per game. Stoudemire can take Howard away from the paint just a bit as well, as he does have the ability to shoot the long ball if given the chance.

Still, this is a series that the Magic tend to dominate. Not only does Orlando have five straight wins in this series, but it has scored at least 112 points in all five games. The Magic are 4-1 ATS over the course of those five, and all five have gone past the 'total.'

In two meetings this season, the Magic won 116-110 on March 1 and 112-103 on December 30, but both of those games were played at the Amway Center.

This is the makeup game from a November 2 clash that had to be postponed at MSG due to asbestos related debris falling onto the court.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-22-2011, 10:53 PM

Detroit Red Wings host Canucks in Tuesday NHL betting

Detroit has gotten the best of the Canucks six of the last eight meetings.
The top two teams in the Western Conference will tangle Wednesday when the league-leading Vancouver Canucks mosey over to Motown for a meeting with the Central Division-leading Detroit Red Wings. The Verizon network will televise the game from Joe Louis Arena beginning at 4:35 p.m. (PT).

Detroit leads the season series, 2-1, and is 6-2 in the last eight head-to-head matchups. In addition, the Red Wings are 5-2 against the Canucks in the last seven meetings at Joe Louis Arena, with the ‘over’ going 4-1 in the last five.

The initial meeting this season (Nov. 6) saw the Canucks outlast the Wings as 140 home favorites, 6-4. The combined 10 goals soared ‘over’ the 5 ½-goal closing total. Vancouver outshot the Wings, 37-28, and was 2-for-5 on the power play. Detroit was 1-for-4 with the man advantage.

Detroit got its revenge in the Dec. 22 rematch with a 5-4 overtime victory as a 145 home favorite. The combined nine goals again skipped ‘over’ the 5 ½-goal closing total. The Wings outshot the Canucks, 45-39, and again went 1-for-4 on the power play. Vancouver was 2-for-3 with the man advantage.

The most recent meeting (Jan. 8) saw the Wings register a 2-1 shootout win as 165 road underdogs. This was the lone game to dip ‘under’ the 5 ½-goal closing total. Vancouver outshot Detroit, 35-33, with both clubs going 1-for-5 on the power play.

Vancouver holds the scheduling advantage in this spot, as the club has not played since having its seven-game winning streak snapped by Phoenix last Friday.

The Canucks suffered a 3-1 setback as hefty 200 home favorites, with the combined four goals ducking ‘under’ the 5 ½-goal closing total. That ended Vancouver’s string of five straight ‘over’ outings.

Vancouver had scored three goals or more in seven consecutive outings prior to last Friday’s setback. The onslaught of goals has solidified the club’s No. 1 offensive ranking at 3.2 goals per game.

Putting the puck in the opposition’s net isn’t the lone skill Vancouver possesses. The squad is also tops in the league defensively, allowing an average of 2.3 GPG.

The Canucks also own the league’s best power play (24.8 percent) and penalty kill (86.0 percent).

Though the Red Wings are in the midst of a slump that has seen them drop six of their last 10 outings, they collected an unexpected point Monday during a 5-4 shootout loss against Pittsburgh as 170 home favorites.

The Wings fought back from a 4-0 deficit to tie the game in the third period before losing in the third shootout round.

The loss lowered Detroit’s home record to 19-11-3-2, which is actually poorer than its 24-10-2-2 road ledger.

Jimmy Howard was yanked out of the Detroit net after the fourth goal, but did not suffer the loss because the Wings tied the game while he was on the bench. The 27-year-old netminder is 34-14-3-2 with an unimpressive .279 GAA and .908 save percentage.

Injuries are always a concern this time of year, and both the Canucks and Wings will not be at 100 percent for Wednesday’s game.

Vancouver’s Daniel Sedin, who leads the NHL in scoring with 38 goals and 55 assists for 93 points, will not travel with the team because his wife is giving berth to their third child.

Additionally, third-line center Manny Malhotra will miss the remainder of the regular season and playoffs with an eye injury suffered last Wednesday against Colorado.

The Don Best Sports injury report is also showing three Red Wings are “questionable” for Wednesday’s nationally televised affair. Center’s Pavel Datsyuk (lower body) and Jiri Hudler (upper body) have each missed the last two games, while left winger Johan Franzen (groin) missed Monday’s contest.

Vancouver remains on its four-game road trip Friday with a stop in Atlanta to play the Thrashers. Detroit continues its five-game homestand Saturday against the Toronto Maple Leafs.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-22-2011, 10:58 PM

Fade Alert - Sweet 16

March 22, 2011

SWEET 16 RETURNEES… Buyer Beware
With the 2011 NCAA Tournament entering the SWEET 16 round, let’s take a different perspective in analyzing the teams that have arrived. It pertains specifically to teams that are returning to the SWEET 16 for the 2nd straight year. Do they perform like a team with experience and panache, or do they execute like CEO’s looking for golden parachutes and cushy bonuses while steering a sinking ship? Let’s take a peek.

How Do You Do

According to our database, since 1991, teams making a right-back appearance in the SWEET 16 from the previous year are 56-39 straight up (58%) and 42-51-1 (45%) against the spread in this round of the tournament. The cut-line, however, is often times the pointspread.

That’s confirmed by the fact that favorites of more than six points are 31-2 SU (94%) and 21-12 ATS (64%) in these games. Priced at anything less (‘dog or favorite of 6 or fewer points), they dip drastically to 25-37 SU (40%) and 21-39-1 ATS (35%) in competitive contests.

Last year witnessed five SWEET 16 returnees, all of whom collectively managed to go 2-2-1 ATS during this round.

All Aboard

Taking a look at this year’s list of returnees, we find no less than four teams that were here last year. They include – Butler, Duke, Kentucky and Ohio State.

Looking at it from a different perspective, one major exception to the rule is that SWEET 16 returnees seem to struggle when arriving off a win of less than 10 points, going just 13-27-2 ATS (33%). (Butler, Duke, Kentucky)

Sayonara!

Worse, when SWEET 16 returnees arrive off a single-digit win after having won their opening round tournament game by fewer than 15 points they drop to 7-15 SU (32%) and 4-16-1 ATS (20%), including 2-14-1 (13%) when facing a foe off an ATS win. FYI: The life rafts ready and standing by for Butler and Kentucky.

The bottom line is you can draw your own conclusions, if you like. But make no mistake, when it comes to handicapping teams in the SWEET 16, the winners will likely be the better-qualified teams that have ‘been there-and-done that’. Or those who know how to keep a ship afloat, if you know what I mean…

**StarDust Bum** · 03-22-2011, 11:25 PM

Wednesday, March 23

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Florida - 1:05 PM ET Atlanta -124 500
Atlanta -

Houston - 1:05 PM ET Houston +100 500
Pittsburgh -

NY Mets - 1:05 PM ET NY Mets +112 500
St. Louis -

Philadelphia - 1:05 PM ET Tampa Bay -105 500
Tampa Bay -

Arizona - 4:05 PM ET Texas -131 500
Texas -

Cincinnati - 4:05 PM ET Cincinnati +102 500
San Diego -

Kansas City - 4:05 PM ET Kansas City +107 500
Cleveland -

LA Dodgers - 4:05 PM ET Chi. White Sox -118 500
Chi. White Sox -

Oakland - 4:05 PM ET Chi. Cubs -118 500
Chi. Cubs -

San Francisco - 4:05 PM ET San Francisco +107 500
LA Angels -

Baltimore - 7:05 PM ET Baltimore +112 500
Minnesota -

Toronto - 7:05 PM ET Toronto +125 500
NY Yankees -

Seattle - 9:40 PM ET Seattle +112 500
Colorado -

**shoeman530** · 03-23-2011, 11:24 AM

Good Luck

**StarDust Bum** · 03-23-2011, 05:45 PM

hey SHOEMAN........same to you...good luck !

**StarDust Bum** · 03-23-2011, 05:46 PM

Orlando looks to win in N.Y. for 5th straight time

ORLANDO MAGIC (45-26)

at NEW YORK KNICKS (35-35)

Tip-off: Wednesday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Orlando -1.5, Total: 203

Two teams heading in opposite directions get together for the third time this season when the Magic travel to Madison Square Garden to take on the struggling Knicks. Orlando has won five straight in this series overall and four straight at MSG.

Orlando is one of the worst ATS teams in the NBA this season both overall and on the road. The Magic are 30-40 overall and 13-21 on the road, ranking in the bottom five in both categories. Orlando has won three in a row SU, but has lost four straight ATS. The Magic have just about secured the No. 4 seed and home-court advantage for the first round, as they are five games ahead of fifth-place Atlanta. Dwight Howard has been an absolute beast for Orlando recently. He has recorded 28 consecutive double-doubles, and is averaging 24.6 PPG, 17.4 RPG and 3.8 BPG in his past five games. Howard loves seeing the Knicks on the schedule, as he has recorded double-doubles in 12 of his past 13 meetings with New York, including 24.4 PPG and 14.6 RPG during Orlando's five-game win streak over the Knicks.

New York has been one of the best teams in the league ATS this season, going 40-28 overall. The Knicks have struggled of late both SU and ATS losing three straight and six of seven. They squandered a nine-point lead in the fourth quarter, and the Celtics scored 23 of the final 27 points in their 96-86 win over the Knicks at MSG on Monday. New York has had issues stopping teams in the second half since acquiring Carmelo Anthony (Knicks are 7-9 with him), allowing a league-worst 53.1 PPG. They ranked 23rd in the NBA in second-half points allowed prior to the trade, allowing 50.2. Anthony has also disappeared in crunch time during the Knicks three-game losing streak, totaling just 11 points on 2-of-12 shooting in the fourth quarter over that span.

The Magic, who are fifth in the league in scoring defense at 94.2 PPG, are holding opponents to just 88.4 PPG in their past five games. That's trouble for New York who is having issues scoring and shooting the ball over its past three games (92.0 PPG, 41.6 percent from the field). I'm taking Orlando to add to the Knicks misery, and for Dwight Howard to have a big game. These two FoxSheets trends side with the Magic as well:

Play On - Road favorites (ORLANDO) - average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defense (<=14.5 TO's) after 42+ games. (152-94 since 1996.) (61.8%, +48.6 units. Rating = 2*).

Play Against - Home teams (NEW YORK) - revenging a road loss vs. opponent, extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days. (434-330 over the last 5 seasons.) (56.8%, +71 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-23-2011, 05:47 PM

Red-hot Denver hosts Spurs without Duncan

SAN ANTONIO SPURS (57-13)

at DENVER NUGGETS (42-29)

Tip-off: Wednesday, 10:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Denver -5, Total: 211.5

The story of the Spurs’ season has been their success while no longer relying on Tim Duncan. Wednesday night, they’ll get their first major test with Duncan out of the lineup altogether.

Duncan suffered a badly sprained ankle in Monday night’s win over Golden State, two days after he rested in the second game of a back-to-back (an easy home win over Charlotte). So far this season, he’s played a career-low 28.3 minutes per game and is putting up the lowest rates of his career in points (22.5 per 48 minutes, down from 27.6 career) and shot attempts (18.8 per 48, down from 21.0 career). However, Duncan is still an integral part of the team because of his defense, rebounding, and ability to draw attention away from San Antonio’s three-point shooters. He’s second on the team, behind only Manu Ginobili, in plus/minus per 48 minutes (+10.0).

Rookie Tiago Splitter (not a true rookie, since he was a veteran star in Spain) is likely to take up most of Duncan’s minutes. He had 10 points and 14 rebounds off the bench after replacing Duncan Monday night, though those numbers come with an asterisk since the opponent was Golden State, a dreadfully weak road team. The Spurs are also expected to have DeJuan Blair back in the lineup after sitting out Monday’s game with a minor wrist injury.

With Duncan out, the Spurs will rely even more heavily on their three-point shooters. And, like most teams, they do not shoot as well outside their own building (42.2% from three at home, 37.7% from three on the road). And while defense against the three-pointer is partially a product of luck, the Nuggets have guarded the three-point arc much more aggressively since trading Carmelo Anthony and his uneven (at best) defensive effort. Since the trade, Denver is allowing opponents to make just 31.9% of their threes (35.3% prior to the Anthony trade) and are holding teams to 94.7 PPG (105.2 PPG prior to the trade).

The Nuggets improved defense and much better work on the boards (their rebounding margin was -1.0 RPG before the Anthony trade and +6.9 RPG since) is the reason they’ve been much more successful since the trade: 10-4 SU and 13-1 ATS. In their six home games during that span, they’ve yet to come within even 10 points of a loss. That includes impressive wins over Boston (by 14), Atlanta (10) and Memphis (13), and blowout wins over three of the league’s weaker sisters (Charlotte by 40, Detroit by 30 and Toronto by 33).

The Nuggets have managed to replace Anthony’s offensive production with a balanced attack. They have eight players averaging between nine and 17 points so far this month. Since returning from a toe injury three games ago, Danilo Gallinari has acted like a lead scorer, attacking the basket and getting to the line 29 times (and making 26 free throws) despite playing a total of only 87 minutes in those games. His rate of 16.0 FTA per 48 minutes during that span is higher than anyone in the NBA on the season, and far higher than his career rate of 6.5 FTA per 48 minutes. Nene Hilario and Ty Lawson are each averaging an efficient 16.3 PPG in March, shooting 61% and 51% from the field, respectively, and sixth man J.R. Smith is torching the nets with 46% shooting from three-point range in March.

Considering Denver’s inspired play on the defensive end, combined with San Antonio’s need to adjust to life without one of their key players, I’m going with Denver to win and cover. The FoxSheets has a trend that leans towards the home team:

Play On - Home favorites (DENVER) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off a home win scoring 110 or more points. (104-57 since 1996, 64.6%, +41.3 units. Rating = 2*).

With defense ruling the day, I’m also taking the Under in this one, with this trend from the FoxSheets to back it up:

Play Under - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DENVER) - in a game involving two good three point shooting teams (>=36.5%), in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game). (204-118 over the last 5 seasons, 63.4%, +74.2 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-23-2011, 05:48 PM

Celtics favored by 6.5 points over Grizzlies

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (39-32)

at BOSTON CELTICS (50-19)

Tip-off: Wednesday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Boston -6.5, Total: 188

The Grizzlies travel to Boston to play the Celtics on Wednesday night. Boston defeated Memphis in November, and will be looking to win the season series against them for the third time in the past four seasons.

Memphis has been one of the best ATS teams in the NBA this season, posting a record of 44-26. This is the first of consecutive games the Grizzlies play on the road against the two teams that are vying for the top spot in the Eastern Conference (Celtics and Bulls). Memphis currently sits in eighth place in the West, two games ahead of Utah for the final playoff spot, and two games behind Portland for the sixth playoff spot. If the Grizzlies are to move up in the West, they are going to have to do so without the services of Rudy Gay for the remainder of the season. Gay, who had missed the past 14 games, will have season-ending surgery to repair his right shoulder. Memphis has gone 8-6 during Gay's absence. In its last game Monday against Utah, a 103-85 win, seven different players scored in double-figures, led by Zach Randolph's 19 points. The Grizzlies have shot the ball well over their past four games, making 50.6 percent of their field-goal attempts. Mike Conley has picked up his play of late, averaging 14.1 PPG and 8.0 APG over his past seven games.

Boston has struggled ATS this season, posting a 32-24 record, but has won two straight and three of its past four ATS. The Celtics outscored the Knicks 23-4 over the final 7:26 on Monday to erase a nine-point deficit and win 96-86. They enter Wednesday ½-game behind the Bulls for first place in the Eastern Conference. Kevin Garnett had 21 points and 11 rebounds against the Knicks, breaking a streak of nine straight games without posting at least 20 points and 10 rebounds. After averaging just 9.7 PPG in his previous three games against Memphis, Garnett scored 18 against them in November. Paul Pierce led all scorers with 28 points against the Grizzlies earlier this season, while Rajon Rondo dished out 17 assists. Rondo, who had averaged just 3.4 PPG in his previous five games, scored 13 points and collected 12 assists in the win over the Knicks on Monday.

The Celtics are just 4-9 ATS against the Western Conference at home. While the Grizzlies own an excellent road mark ATS at 22-14, they are just 5-8 ATS on the road against the Eastern Conference. The Celtics really want that top spot in the East, and I expect them to come out and show it on Wednesday. I'm taking Boston, and this FoxSheets trend also likes the Celtics to win and cover:

BOSTON is 20-9 ATS (69.0%, +10.1 Units) when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons. The average score was BOSTON 93.9, OPPONENT 90.4 - (Rating = 1*).

The past seven Celtics games have all finished Under the total and this FoxSheets trend expects the Under streak to continue Wednesday:

Play Under - Home teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (BOSTON) - off 2 or more consecutive road wins, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season. (65-32 since 1996.) (67%, +29.8 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-23-2011, 05:49 PM

Trending: NBA ATS vs. Good and Bad

In this version of our NBA trending series, we take a look at which teams are winning bets against the different tiers of teams. We have broken down the 30 NBA teams into five groups of six teams based solely on their SU record this season. Here are the five groups with each winning percentage, through Tuesday, March 22:
EXCELLENT
San Antonio .814
Chicago .729
Boston .725
LA Lakers .718
Dallas .700
Miami .686

GOOD
Oklahoma City .652
Orlando .634
Denver .592
Portland .577
Atlanta .563
New Orleans .563

AVERAGE
Memphis .549
Houston .521
Philadelphia .514
Phoenix .507
Utah .507
New York .500

BAD
Indiana .437
Golden State .423
Milwaukee .406
Charlotte .406
LA Clippers .380
Detroit .357

TERRIBLE
New Jersey .319
Toronto .286
Sacramento .246
Washington .246
Minnesota .239
Cleveland .188

Best/Worst ATS Records vs. EXCELLENT Teams
Chicago 9-2 (82%)
San Antonio 8-4 (67%)
Memphis 9-6 (60%)
New Jersey 9-6 (60%)
It stands to reason that the Bulls, Grizzlies and Spurs are on this list since they rank 1, 2 and 5 respectively among best ATS records in the NBA. But the Nets are 32-37 ATS overall, ranking 22nd in the NBA. Chicago is 5-0 ATS at home versus Excellent teams.

Atlanta 2-11 (15%)
Utah 2-11 (15%)
L.A. Lakers 3-8 (27%)
Miami 3-8 (27%)
This list is surprising considering it consists of two Excellent teams (Lakers, Heat), one Good team (Hawks) and one Average team (Jazz). However, all four of these teams carry losing ATS marks on the season. The Lakers are 0-4 ATS at home versus Excellent teams.

Best/Worst ATS Records vs. GOOD Teams
Oklahoma City 9-2 (82%)
New York 10-3 (77%)
L.A. Lakers 10-4 (71%)
New Jersey 10-4 (71%)
Philadelphia 10-4 (71%)
The 76ers, Knicks and Thunder are all amongst the best seven ATS teams in the league, but it is quite a surprise to see the Lakers and Nets on this list. L.A. is 6-2 ATS in road games versus Good teams and 6-1 ATS as an away favorite against Good squads. New Jersey surprises us again, as it is 19-10 ATS (66%) against the 12 best teams in the NBA. Only Chicago (17-8, 68%) and New York (18-9, 67%) have better ATS marks combined against Excellent and Good teams.

Orlando 1-10 (9%)
Cleveland 3-10 (23%)
Indiana 3-8 (27%)
Portland 4-8 (33%)
The Magic’s 1-10 ATS mark against Good teams is a real shocker, especially because they are only two games above or below .500 ATS against the four other subsets of teams. Despite being favored in all five road games against Good teams, Orlando is 0-5 (SU and ATS) in those contests, losing by an average of 9.0 PPG (103.2 to 94.2).

Best/Worst ATS Records vs. AVERAGE Teams
Memphis 11-4 (73%)
Dallas 11-4 (73%)
Cleveland 10-5 (67%)
New York 7-4 (64%)
The Grizzlies, Mavericks and Knicks are all in the top seven in overall ATS records, but the Cavaliers have the second-worst ATS mark in the NBA at 28-38 (42%). Cleveland is 6-2 ATS at home when playing an Average team.

Atlanta 4-10 (29%)
Utah 4-10 (29%)
Washington 4-10 (29%)
The Hawks and Jazz, tied for a league-worst 2-11 ATS record versus Excellent teams, are also tied for the worst ATS marks against Average teams. Atlanta is a miserable 11-27 ATS (29%) against Excellent/Good/Average clubs, but carries a strong 20-13 ATS (61%) versus Bad and Terrible teams. Utah is also horrendous ATS versus Excellent/Good/Average teams (13-29, 31%), but are beating up Bad/Terrible teams at an 18-11 ATS clip (62%).

Best/Worst ATS Records vs. BAD Teams
Detroit 10-2 (83%)
Houston 10-4 (71%)
New Orleans 9-4 (69%)
The Pistons are only 2-4 SU on the road against Bad teams, but have covered the spread all six times. Detroit, the worst team in the Bad group, is also 10-5 ATS versus Terrible teams, giving it an impressive 20-7 ATS (74%) against Bad/Terrible squads. The Rockets are a perfect 6-0 ATS in home games against Bad teams, while the Hornets are 5-1 ATS when hosting Bad clubs.

Toronto 3-12 (20%)
Washington 3-10 (23%)
Charlotte 3-9 (25%)
Sacramento 3-9 (25%)
The Bobcats are the only team on this list not in the Terrible category, but they are still a Bad club with the ninth-worst SU record in the league. The Wizards have the worst ATS mark in the NBA at 24-45 (35%) and the only category they have at least a 40% ATS success rate is against the Excellent teams (7-8, 47%).

Best/Worst ATS Records vs. TERRIBLE Teams
Charlotte 12-3 (80%)
Golden State 10-3 (77%)
Indiana 11-4 (73%)
Milwaukee 10-4 (71%)
Philadelphia 12-5 (71%)
The 76ers are the only team on this list with a winning ATS record this season. The Bobcats are 6-1 ATS on the road against Terrible teams, as they have only allowed one of these teams to score 100 points on them. The Warriors are a perfect 5-0 ATS when hosting Terrible teams, and blowing out these clubs by an average of 13.2 PPG (110.4 to 97.2).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-23-2011, 05:50 PM

WSU giving 3.5 points to Northwestern in NIT

#4 seed NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS (20-13)

at #2 seed WASHINGTON STATE COUGARS (21-12)

NIT – Quarterfinals
Tip-off: Wednesday, 11:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Washington State -3.5, Total: 144.5

Right now the storyline for Northwestern and Washington State is a very simple one. Each team is just 40 minutes of basketball away from heading to New York City and playing in Madison Square Garden, a boyhood dream of most college basketball players from the moment their parents put up a hoop in the driveway, the backyard, or the playroom. (Nerf basketball rocks!). For Washington State, it’s a chance to continue to build on its respectable 21-12 record, as well as accentuate the end of a season that has seen the Cougars win four of its past six, with the two losses coming by two points in regulation and four points in overtime. Like WSU, Northwestern has hit the 20-win mark and is hoping for more. The Wildcats have won four of their past five, and could boost the argument for the Big Ten as being the deepest conference if the 'Cats as the 8th-place team can make the NIT Final Four, while the seven teams above Northwestern made the NCAA Tournament.

Washington State is coming off Monday’s 74-64 triumph in Pullman over Oklahoma State. Klay Thompson scored 14 of his 24 points in the opening half, as the Cougars surged to a 38-29 halftime advantage. "I was open to start the game," Thompson said. "I just took that opportunity to shoot and made a few early." The Cougars were also effective at starting the second half quickly as well, going on a 12-6 run to begin the final session as the team built its biggest lead of the game, 51-37, with 13 minutes remaining. Reserve forward Brock Motum was huge coming off the bench scoring 17 points, his second-highest output of the season. DeAngelo Casto delivered 11 points and five boards, but he will not play Wednesday after he was suspended indefinitely on Tuesday for a violation of team rules. The Cougars defense held the Cowboys to just 40.7% shooting on the night. In each of the first two games of the NIT, Washington State has tallied eight three-point baskets. On Monday, the Cougars outscored Oklahoma State 24-12 with their three-point shooting. At 46.1% FG, WSU is in the upper echelon of shooting teams in college basketball (56th-best in Division I), and its 36.0% clip from beyond the arc puts Washington State in the top third of all teams at shooting the three-pointer.

If Washington State is willing to get into a long-distance shooting contest with Wednesday’s opponent, it might want to re-think that strategy. Northwestern is coming off an impressive 85-67 destruction of Boston College on the road. John Shurna scored 20 points with nine rebounds and Michael Thompson had 22 points and six assists as Northwestern took a 38-31 lead into the break and never looked back. The victory was its 20th of the season, tying a school record. The Wildcats went wild from downtown, shooting 15-for-36 (41.7%) from beyond the arc, and outscoring the host Eagles 45-15 with the three-point shot. Actually it was a decent offensive night for the Eagles, as they shot 52.2% overall from the floor, but all of that was overshadowed by the Wildcats, who shot 54.8% on the night. While the ’Cats made just 37.9% FG in their nine-point victory over Milwaukee in the first round, they still made 12 three-pointers in that contest. Northwestern has shot the three ball at a 37.7% clip for the season (40th best in Division I). If this one comes down to which is the better team at defending the long ball, advantage: Cougars. Washington State ranks 38th in the nation at defending the three-pointer, while Northwestern ranks 210th.

The Wildcats have not relished the underdog role this year, going 5-9 ATS (36%) overall, and 3-7 ATS (30%) as a road ‘dog. Meanwhile, the Cougars are 13-7 ATS (65%) as a favorite, including 9-3 ATS (75%) as a home favorite. They are also 9-3 ATS in non-conference games. The pick here is Washington State to win and cover in front of its home fans. The FoxSheets provide two more reasons in support of the Cougars.

Play On - Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (WASHINGTON STATE) - off a home win by 10 points or more, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%). (176-123 over the last 5 seasons.) (58.9%, +40.7 units. Rating = 1*).

Bill Carmody is 23-38 ATS (37.7%, -18.8 Units) after having won 4 or 5 of his last 6 games as the coach of NORTHWESTERN. The average score was NORTHWESTERN 60.6, OPPONENT 62.4 - (Rating = 1*).

This highly-rated FoxSheets trend also likes the Over as the side bet.

Play Over - Home teams against the total (WASHINGTON STATE) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off an upset win by 15 points or more as a road underdog. (33-9 since 1997.) (78.6%, +23.1 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-23-2011, 05:51 PM

Alabama hosts Miami in NIT Quarterfinals

#2 seed MIAMI HURRICANES (21-14)

at #1 seed ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (23-11)

NIT – Quarterfinals
Tip-off: Wednesday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Alabama -5.5, Total: 130.5

For teams competing in the NIT, so much about this time of year is about reflection and resurrection. It’s about trying to put the past four months of basketball in the rearview mirror, and trying to take advantage of one last opportunity to put a championship, of some kind, on its resume. Miami coach Frank Haith is not thinking about the four straight games he lost in midseason by 2, 2, 4 and 4 points, or the heartbreaking buzzer-beater he dropped to North Carolina in the ACC Tournament, he is looking ahead. For Alabama coach Anthony Grant, the debate of whether the Crimson Tide deserved a spot in the Big Dance is moot. All that matters now for the SEC West champions is that with one more win, the Tide will be rolling into the Big Apple with a chance for an NIT title, a major step in the basketball reclamation project that Grant is executing in Tuscaloosa.

Miami is coming off an 81-72 victory over Missouri State in Coral Gables. Sixth-year senior Adrian Thomas extended his career at least one more game by scoring all 16 of his points in the second half to help the Hurricanes overcome a six-point halftime deficit. "I just wanted to win the game," Thomas said. "I don't want this season to end, because once it's over, it's official for me." Point guard Durand Scott led the ‘Canes with 20 points, and credited Thomas’ focus and explosiveness during a key second-half run, when Thomas hit four three-pointers during the first 4:15 of the half. "A.T. was the reason we made that turnaround in the second half," said Scott. "We just came out aggressive and stayed together on the defensive side. And we let A.T. go to work on the offensive side." Added Thomas: "Once the first one went in, I just kept shooting." Malcolm Grant added 10 points for Miami, while Reggie Johnson chipped in with nine points and nine rebounds. Another key to the ferocious comeback of the ‘Canes was the team’s performance at the free-throw line. While Miami did not score a single point from the line in the first half, they shot 24 free throws in the second half, connecting on 21 of them (88%).

Alabama advanced to the quarterfinal round with a 74-67 victory over the Lobos of New Mexico. Tony Mitchell had 23 points and six boards, while Trevor Releford added 20 points. Alabama’s offense sizzled in the second half, making 15-of-20 shots in the closing stanza to close strong and set up the Crimson Tide for a shot at advancing to the NIT final grouping in New York City for the sixth time in school history. "I think our guys are excited to still have an opportunity to continue to play and continue to try to play for a championship," Grant said. Alabama stayed in control of the game despite an off night from one of its leading scorers, JaMychal Green (15.5 PPG, 7.8 RPG) who was saddled with foul trouble, and only produced seven points and seven boards in 20 minutes of action. Alabama shot 53%, while holding the Lobos to 37.9% shooting from the floor, which is even lower than the 38.2% the Tide has held opponents to all season (third-best in Division I). While the ‘Canes know what it’s like to play against a tough-minded defensive team (Miami lost to Florida State twice, the same Seminoles who lead the nation in FG Pct. defense at 36.0%), what Miami is not used to is playing a tough-minded defensive team on Alabama’s home court of Coleman Coliseum, where the Tide is a perfect 18-0 this season. The words of New Mexico coach Steve Alford should be a cautionary tale for what Haith’s team can expect. "It's one of the better defensive teams that we've played all season long," Alford said. "They mix up their pressures, they back off, they come at you. They just do a really good job of keeping you off balance."

The Hurricanes are 6-1-1 ATS in their past eight games, and are 9-3 ATS in non-conference games this season. But Miami is only 5-4-2 ATS on the road and 1-2 ATS with one day’s rest. In addition to Alabama’s stellar 12-2 ATS (86%) home mark, it is also 13-4 ATS (77%) as a favorite and 11-4 ATS (73%) following an ATS victory. The pick here is Alabama to win and cover on its home court. These two highly-rated FoxSheets trends also select the Tide.

ALABAMA is 10-1 ATS (90.9%, +8.9 Units) when playing only its 2nd game in 8 days this season. The average score was ALABAMA 71.7, OPPONENT 57.4 - (Rating = 4*).

ALABAMA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season. The average score was ALABAMA 70.4, OPPONENT 59.3 - (Rating = 3*).

This four-star FoxSheets coaching trend also sides with the Over on Wednesday.

Frank Haith is 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) in road games off 2 or more consecutive home wins as the coach of MIAMI. The average score was MIAMI 71.6, OPPONENT 72.9 - (Rating = 4*).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-23-2011, 05:53 PM

Wednesday Tips

March 22, 2011

The Wednesday card is loaded with 12 games for bettors to wager on, including a handful of matchups that are imperative to the playoff race. The Knicks try to end their recent slide against the Magic, while the Spurs and Nuggets hook up at Pepsi Center. We begin in the City of Brotherly Love as the Sixers attempt to hold onto the sixth seed in the Eastern Conference against the Hawks.

Hawks at Sixers - 7:05 PM EST

Philadelphia begins the night four games behind Atlanta for the fifth seed in the East, while the Sixers try to hold off the Knicks for sixth. The Hawks will be playing with no rest after getting blown out at home against the co-leaders of the East, the Bulls. For the Sixers, returning home will be a pleasant sight after a five-game road swing.

Doug Collins' team finished the trip at 2-3 SU/ATS, which included losses to the Bucks, Jazz, and Blazers. Andre Iguodala sat out the Portland defeat to get an extra day of rest, as the only two victories came over the Clippers and Kings. The Sixers' offense picked up after a dreadful start to the trip when they tallied a season-low 74 points at Milwaukee. Philadelphia broke the 100-point barrier in the last four games, while hitting the 'over' three times.

The Hawks aren't playing their best basketball at the moment with losses in seven of their last 10 games, even though nine of those contests were played at Philips Arena. Atlanta hopes road is where the heart (and wins) is as Larry Drew's club is 2-6 ATS the previous eight games on the highway. The Hawks look to cover for the first time in four meetings this season, while Atlanta plays with revenge after getting embarrassed by Philadelphia in their last matchup, 117-83.

Grizzlies at Celtics - 7:35 PM EST

Boston returns home after its comeback victory at New York on Monday to keep pace with Chicago for home-court advantage throughout the Eastern Conference playoffs. The Celtics battle a Grizzlies' squad that looks to maintain hold of the eighth and final spot in the Western Conference race, as Memphis begins a tough stretch.

If the Grizzlies can keep their heads above water over the next five days against Boston, Chicago (Friday), and San Antonio (Sunday), Memphis has an excellent shot to qualify for the postseason with five of its final eight games coming against below .500 teams. The club received tough news on Tuesday when swingman Rudy Gay elected to have season-ending shoulder surgery since getting hurt prior to the All-Star break. Since Gay has been sidelined, the Grizzlies are 8-6 SU and 9-5 ATS, while splitting six games on the road from an ATS perspective.

Boston's defense is suffocating opponents by cashing the 'under' in seven straight games, topped off by holding New York to just 35 points in Tuesday's triumph at Madison Square Garden. Over the last two months, the Celtics profited as home favorites with a 7-4 ATS ledger, but all four losses have come when laying single-digits. The Celtics look for the season sweep of the Grizzlies after winning in overtime at FedEx Forum, 116-110 in early November. However, Memphis is an amazing 12-0-1 ATS the last 13 meetings in Boston, including a 20-point blowout of the Celtics last season.

Magic at Knicks - 8:00 PM EST

The Empire State of Mind for the Knicks is to just win games at this point, as Mike D'Antoni's embattled squad has lost six of their last seven games. New York's task to bounce back doesn't ease up against Orlando, who is riding a 4-1 streak to keep hold of the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference. Life isn't as good for the Knicks, who are still trying to figure things out since the trade for Carmelo Anthony.

New York is 7-9 SU/ATS since the All-Star break, even though six of those games came without point guard Chauncey Billups. What's interesting is the Knicks went 4-2 SU/ATS with Billups out due to a quad injury, including wins over the Hornets, Hawks, and Grizzlies. The Knicks look to improve from an offensive standpoint after scoring 95 points in each of the last three losses, all 'unders.'

Orlando hasn't been profitable at all by failing to cover in eight of the previous nine games, including Monday's ATS loss at Cleveland as 12-point favorites (Magic led by 22 heading into final quarter). Stan Van Gundy's team has limited 10 of the last 13 opponents to less than 100 points, resulting in nine 'unders.' A big issue for Orlando is covering on the highway, owning a 1-5 ATS mark the last six away games, even though the Magic won four of those contests.

Spurs at Nuggets - 10:30 PM EST

The night wraps up at Pepsi Center as Denver looks to stay hot against a San Antonio team that will be down its big man. Tim Duncan is likely out the next three games with a sprained ankle suffered in Monday's home victory over Golden State. Even without Duncan, the Spurs go for the four-game season sweep of the Nuggets.

San Antonio has won six of seven since a home loss to the Lakers on March 6, even though Gregg Popovich's team is 3-4 ATS in this stretch. The Spurs are an excellent 8-3 ATS as an underdog of four points or less, including victories at Houston and Dallas on their last road trip. This is the first meeting against the Nuggets since Denver revamped its roster at the All-Star break, as the Spurs are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS in the season series.

The Nuggets are an incredible 13-1 ATS the last 14 games since acquiring Raymond Felton, Danilo Gallinari, and Wilson Chandler from New York, while solidifying themselves in the fifth spot of the Western Conference. Even though the competition hasn't been superb in the last three home games (Charlotte, Detroit, and Toronto), George Karl's club is averaging a margin of victory of 34.3 points/game in this span. The defense is stepping up as well by cashing the 'under' in nine of the last 11 contests.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-23-2011, 05:59 PM

Wednesday Trends to Watch

March 23, 2011

College of Charleston at Wichita State (NIT)... The Shockers have covered only 5 of 13 (all as chalk) at the Roundhouse this season. Wichita is "over" its first two in NIT play, but was "under" in its five previous games. Meanwhile, Bobby Cremins' Charleston Cougars have covered 6 of 9 as a dog this season, and have won 11 of their last 14 SU.

Miami-Florida at Alabma (NIT)... Alabama is unbeaten in 17 home games at Coleman Coliseum this season, as well as covering 12 of 14 on the line in Tuscaloosa. The Canes, however, have covered 4 in a row and are 6-2 as a road dog this season.

Northwestern at Washington State (NIT)... Wazzu has been a reliable home favorite in Pullman this season, covering in 10 of 13 chances as chalk at Friel Court, and Cougs 5-1 vs. line last 6 entering tonight's fray. Northwestern not bad lately, however, winning and covering 4 of its last 5. Note WSU has also been trending "over" (16-8) all season.

UCF at Creighton (CBI)... UCF has covered two straight in this CBI tourney, but still note that Donnie Jones' Golden Knights are only 5-14-1 vs. the number in their last 20 on the board since Dec. 30. Meanwhile, the Bluejays have covered 7 of their last 9 games.

Boise State at Oregon (CBI)...Boise trending "over" lately, going that way in its last four games. Host Oregon also trending "over" in recent weeks (7-3 last 10).

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