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**StarDust Bum** · 03-20-2011, 11:40 PM

NBA Betting: Boston Celtics at New York Knicks

The Knicks have covered five of the last six versus the Boston Celtics.
This Monday the Boston Celtics travel to Madison Square Garden to take on the New York Knicks in what could be a preview of a first-round matchup in this year’s NBA playoffs. Game time is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. (PT) and it will be broadcast nationally on NBA TV.

Boston finds itself tied with Chicago atop the Eastern Conference, but with Miami just two games back the Celtics could easily slip all the way to third by the season’s end.

They are coming off an 89-85 victory over New Orleans this past Saturday as a one-point road favorite after an ugly 93-77 loss to Houston as a 1 ½-point road favorite on Friday night. Boston is now 49-19 straight-up and 32-34-2 against the spread.

Ray Allen’s team-high 20 points against the Hornets sparked a dramatic 15-point comeback in the second half. He is the team’s second leading scorer with 17.3 points a game behind Paul Pierce ( 18.5). Kevin Garnett leads in rebounds with nine a game and is averaging 14.9 points while Glen Davis continues to play a bigger role off the bench since the trade of Kendrick Perkins.

Boston is averaging 97.2 points a game and leads the league in fewest points allowed, giving up an average of just 91. It also leads the league in shooting percentage, hitting 48.8 percent of its shots from the field. The Celtics are shooting 36.9 percent from three-point range and 76.4 percent from the foul line.

New York continues to struggle with consistency with a 5-5 SU record in its last 10 games. This past Wednesday the Knicks rolled over Memphis 120-99 as a five-point home favorite only to fall flat in 99-95 loss to Detroit as 3 ½-point road favorite the following night. Heading into Sunday’s game against Milwaukee, they are 35-33 SU (40-26-2 ATS) and tied with Philadelphia for sixth-place in the East.

The Knicks lineup has the star power with Amare Stoudemire, Carmelo Anthony, and Chauncey Billips all healthy and contributing at a high level, but unfortunately it is not translating to wins. Stoudemire leads the team with 26.2 points and 8.3 rebounds and Anthony is averaging 24.6 points a game since coming over from Denver. Billips has only appeared in seven games since the late February trade but he is averaging 19.1 points and a team-high 5.9 assists during that span.

Ironically enough, New York is second only to the Nuggets in scoring with an average of 106.6 points a game, but is 28th in the league in points allowed; giving up an average of 105.8 a game. The Knicks are ranked 20th in the NBA in rebounds with 40.7 a game while their opponents are pulling down an average of 43.7 boards a game, which is one of the worst differentials in the league.

Boston is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games and 3-6 ATS in its last nine games overall. The total has stayed ‘under’ in its last six games.

New York is 3-2 ATS in its last five games at home, but just 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in five of its last seven games.

Head-to-head, the Celtics have won eight of the last 10 games SU, but the Knicks are 5-1 ATS in the last six. The total has gone ‘over’ in five of the last seven meetings. Boston pulled out a 118-116 win as a four-point road favorite in mid-December in the only meeting between the two teams this season.

This time around the Celtics should once again be a slight road favorite and remain a solid play against the weary Knicks, who will be playing their fourth game in five days.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-20-2011, 11:40 PM

Detroit Red Wings, Penguins top NHL odds slate for Monday

The home team is 9-1 the last 10 meetings between the Pens and Wings.
The National Hockey League’s regular season only has a couple of weeks remaining, and two playoff teams square off Monday night hoping to improve their postseason seeding.

Pittsburgh (41-22-5-3) has the daunting task of playing back-to-back games after Sunday’s home contest with the New York Rangers. The Penguins are currently the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference, but they are just one point ahead of fifth-place Tampa Bay.

Detroit (43-21-5-3) has almost no chance of catching top-seed Vancouver in the Western Conference standings. The Red Wings remain two points ahead of third-place San Jose, and five points ahead of fourth-place Phoenix.

Pittsburgh is 4-1 its last five games heading into Sunday’s action after throttling Ottawa Tuesday as 127 road ‘chalk,’ 5-1. The combined six goals eclipsed the five-goal closing total, helping the ‘over’ cash the second consecutive contest.

The Penguins took control of the contest compliments of three goals in the second period. Tyler Kennedy and Jordan Staal each had a goal and an assist in the victory, while Chris Kunitz recorded three assists. Ben Lovejoy, Matt Cooke and Zbynek Michalek also lit the lamp, while backup goaltender Brent Johnson stopped 21 shots.

Detroit was riding a four-game winning streak before Saturday’s setback to Nashville as a 103 road favorite, 3-1. The combined four goals failed to topple the 5 ½-goal closing total, helping the ‘under’ improve to 5-1 the past six games.

Daniel Cleary netted the lone goal for the Red Wings, and the team finished with advantages in faceoffs won, 39-30, and shots on goal, 40-39. His first-period tally gave Detroit a lead until midway through the second stanza.

The home team is 9-1 the past 10 games in the Pittsburgh-Detroit series. The Penguins won the lone encounter this season Jan. 18 as a 142 home ‘chalk,’ 4-1. The combined five goals slithered below the NHL odds, helping the ‘under’ cash the sixth straight matchup.

Ironically, the lone road victory the past 10 games between these teams occurred in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals in 2009. The Penguins won that matchup as a 172 road underdog, 2-1.

Pittsburgh right wing Arron Asham (concussion) and defenseman Matt Niskanen (flu) are ‘probable’ against the Red Wings, while center Mark Letestu (shoulder) is ‘out.’ The Penguins’ next contest is Thursday at Philadelphia. Pittsburgh has seen the ‘under’ go 6-2 its past eight road endeavors.

Detroit center Pavel Datsyuk (lower body), center Johan Franzen (upper body) and left wing Jiri Hudler (flu) are ‘questionable’ versus the Penguins according to the Don Best Sports injury report. Defenseman Rusian Salei (personal) is ‘probable,’ while goaltender Chris Osgood (groin) is ‘out.’

The Red Wings continue their five-game homestand against Vancouver, Toronto, Chicago and St. Louis. Detroit is 9-0 its last nine games against Eastern Conference opponents.

Versus will provide coverage of Monday’s matchup beginning at 4:30 p.m. PT from Detroit’s Joe Louis Arena.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-20-2011, 11:48 PM

Monday, March 21

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Boston - 1:05 PM ET Boston +115 500
Philadelphia -

Detroit - 1:05 PM ET Detroit +108 500
Houston -

Minnesota - 1:05 PM ET Minnesota -111 500
Pittsburgh -

Washington - 1:05 PM ET Washington +112 500
St. Louis -

Atlanta - 1:10 PM ET Atlanta +104 500
NY Mets -

Chi. Cubs - 4:05 PM ET LA Angels -121 500
LA Angels -

Cleveland - 4:05 PM ET Kansas City -121 500
Kansas City -

Colorado - 4:05 PM ET San Francisco -121 500
San Francisco -

Seattle - 4:05 PM ET Seattle +110 500
Cincinnati -

Texas - 4:05 PM ET Texas +110 500
Milwaukee -

NY Yankees - 7:05 PM ET Tampa Bay -115 500
Tampa Bay -

Chi. White Sox - 10:05 PM ET San Diego -117 500
San Diego -

**StarDust Bum** · 03-21-2011, 05:45 PM

WSU hosts Oklahoma State in NIT 2nd Round

#3 seed OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS (20-13)

at #2 seed WASHINGTON STATE COUGARS (20-12)

NIT – Second Round
Tip-off: Monday, 11:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Washington State -5.5, Total: 137
One team starts fast, the other team ends faster, and somewhere in between they will clash to see who can put some lead on the offensive gas pedal on the road to the (other) Final Four. When Travis Ford’s Oklahoma State team (20-13) squares off against Ken Bone’s Washington State Cougars (20-12), they each will be playing for a spot in the National Invitational Tournament quarterfinals, a chance at redeeming a season that will end in that “other” tournament, a measuring stick to help gauge the potential for excellence in the 2011-12 season. And if they play their cards right, a trip to New York City in the spring!

The Cougars are coming off an 85-74 victory over Long Beach State Wednesday in Pullman. Junior guard Klay Thompson led the attack with 25 points and seven rebounds, while fellow junior Faisal Aden came off the bench to chip in 19. Thompson normally averages 22.2 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 3.9 APG, and is one of the most versatile players in the country that you may not have seen play this season, especially if you reside east of the Mississippi River. Thompson also shoots an eye-popping 42% from beyond the arc. Thompson and Aden are the top two scorers on the team. The third Cougar averaging in double figures is forward DeAngelo Costa (12.1 PPG). Costa also leads WSU in rebounds (6.9 RPG) and blocked shots (1.7 BPG). Costa has scored in double figures in nine of his past 10 games, with double-doubles of points and rebounds in three of those games. Washington State has been a very solid shooting team all season, burying 46% of its shots all season, and 36% from downtown. In its win over the 49ers, the Cougars were even better usual, making 50% of their shots, and 44% from three point territory (8-for-18). After taking a 36-18 lead at intermission, defense became optional after the break, as the 49ers outscored the Cougars 56-49 in the second half, which made for an entertaining conclusion, and ultimately, a first-round win for Wazzu. "This first win is huge," Bone said." I think now we will have time to focus on Oklahoma State, like they will us. I think our guys will be in tune, and think, 'Hey, two more wins and we get to go to New York City, play in Madison Square Garden,' which is something every basketball player dreams of."

Oklahoma State also wore its shooting caps in its opening round matchup versus Harvard. The Cowboys scored 41 points in the first half, its highest first-half output of the season. From there, the Cowboys cruised to an easy 71-54 victory on its home floor. "I was just excited the way they came out," said coach Ford, who thought his team was the most excited it's been all season. "I wasn't quite sure exactly how they were going to come out. I was watching them in pregame talk and I thought they were ready. How we started the game, I felt very good from that point. I felt we were ready to play." Marshall Moses led the Cowboys attack with 18 points and eight rebounds, both game-high figures. Guard Reger Dowell added 15 on the night, and was nearly perfect in the scoring column (6-7 FG, 1-1 three-pointers, 2-2 FT). The Cowboys shot 54% from the floor while holding Harvard to just 40% shooting. Moses tops the Cowboys in scoring (14.5 PPG) and rebounding (7.4 RPG), and while his team has shot 43% from the field this season, Moses is shooting an astounding 56 percent. If this Moses is going to lead the Cowboys to the promised land that is Madison Square Garden, his teammates would be wise to get him and teammate Keiton Page (13.3 PPG) the rock early and often Monday night in Pullman.

These teams last met in 2004, with Oklahoma State winning by 52 points, 81-29. OSU shot 64% FG and held WSU to 22% FG (12-for-55). This season, the Cowboys are a dismal 2-8 ATS in road games and 1-7 ATS as a road underdog. The Cougars are 9-5 ATS at home and 8-3 ATS in non-conference games. The pick here is Washington State to win and cover, and these two FoxSheets trends also support the Cougars.

Play On - Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (WASHINGTON STATE) - in non-conference games, off a home win scoring 85 or more points. (277-180 since 1997.) (60.6%, +79 units. Rating = 2*).

Travis Ford is 5-18 ATS (21.7%, -14.8 Units) as a road underdog or pick as the coach of OKLAHOMA STATE. The average score was OKLAHOMA STATE 65.9, OPPONENT 77.7 - (Rating = 3*).

And this four-star FoxSheets trend sides with the Under on Monday.

OKLAHOMA STATE is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days over the last 2 seasons. The average score was OKLAHOMA STATE 60.7, OPPONENT 64.0 - (Rating = 4*).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-21-2011, 05:47 PM

Franzen, Datsyuk could return Monday vs. Pens

PITTSBURGH PENGUINS (41-23-8, 90 pts)

at DETROIT RED WINGS (43-21-8, 94 pts)

Puck drops: Monday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Detroit -165, Pittsburgh +145, Total: 5.5

Two storied franchises that have suffered a rash of injuries this year, meet Monday night at Joe Louis Arena when Detroit hosts Pittsburgh. The Penguins are still without their two best forwards, Sidney Crosby (concussion) and Evgeni Malkin (knee), but the Red Wings could get two of its best scorers back on the ice Monday.

Johan Franzen (groin) and Pavel Datsyuk (lower body) are both listed as questionable for the matchup with the Pens. Franzen, who leads the Wings with 27 goals, and Datsyuk who is second on the team with 57 points, both did not play in Saturday’s 3-1 loss at Nashville. Detroit would like these players to help end a run of streaks over the past four weeks. The Red Wings won five straight games from Feb. 11-20, then lost two in a row, won two straight, lost four in a row and then won four consecutive games before Saturday’s defeat. Despite the roller coaster ride, Detroit is still second in the NHL in goals scored (3.2) and is fifth in power-play pct. (21.5%). Goalie Jimmy Howard has played well against Pittsburgh in his career, saving 72-of-74 shots (.973) he has faced.

Before losing 5-2 at home to the New York Rangers Sunday, the Penguins had won four of their previous five games, outscoring their opponents 16-8 during this span. Pittsburgh was done in by costly infractions in the third period. Matt Cooke was ejected for an elbowing penalty and four minutes later, Matt Niskanen got a four-minute penalty for high-sticking. These infractions led to Rangers goals on the ensuing power plays, which gave New York the lead for good. Cooke has been suspended three times in the past three seasons for illegal hits and the team expects another suspension to be handed down soon. Two players that are on hot streaks for Pittsburgh are Chris Kunitz, with three goals and three assists in his past three games, and Jordan Staal, who has a three-game goal scoring streak.

Both teams are in the thick of the playoff race, as Detroit sits second in the West with 94 points, but is only 10 points ahead of the 10th-place team in the conference. Pittsburgh has nearly clinched a playoff berth, sitting in fourth place in the Eastern Conference, but it is only one point ahead of Tampa Bay and three points better than Montreal.

In terms of recent series history, the Penguins won the last meeting 4-1 on Jan. 18, and are 7-5 against the Red Wings over the past three seasons. However, Detroit is 10-5-1 when hosting Pittsburgh since 1996. I expect the Red Wings to earn the important home victory on Monday. This anti-Penguins FoxSheets trend also expects Detroit to win.

PITTSBURGH is 8-16 ATS (33.3%, -12.9 Units) against excellent power play teams - scoring on > 19% of its chances in the 2nd half of the year over the last 2 seasons.The average score was PITTSBURGH 2.6, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 2*).

Nine of the past 12 games in this series have finished Under the total, and this four-star FoxSheets trend thinks the Under will occur again on Monday.

PITTSBURGH is 22-7 UNDER (75.9%, +15.5 Units) against excellent power play teams- scoring on >17.5% of their chances this season. The average score was PITTSBURGH 2.8, OPPONENT 2.3 - (Rating = 4*).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-21-2011, 05:47 PM

Warriors try to break 14-year win drought at San Antonio

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (30-40)

at SAN ANTONIO SPURS (56-13)

Tip-off: Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: San Antonio -11, Total: 211
The Warriors try to snap a 25-game losing streak at San Antonio when they visit the Spurs on Monday. This is the longest active run of one team dominating another in the NBA.

Golden State hasn’t left AT&T Center with a win since Valentine’s Day of 1997, and is only 7-18 ATS (28%) during the massive losing skid. The last time the Warriors visited San Antonio on Dec. 8, the Spurs coasted to a 111-94 victory. Reggie Williams made a career-high eight three-pointers en route to 31 points, earning more shots after Stephen Curry sprained his ankle in the second quarter. Curry only had 11 points on Sunday as Golden State dropped its fourth straight road game, 101-73 at Dallas. The Warriors only scored 10 fourth-quarter points and shot 9-for-33 (27%) from the field in the second half. Monta Ellis lit up the Spurs for 38.7 PPG on 56% FG in three games last season, but this season is a much different story, as Ellis is averaging just 18.7 PPG on 35% FG against them.

San Antonio doesn’t have a whole lot to play for, leading the Western Conference by 6½ games and carrying a 7½-game cushion over Dallas in the Southwest Division. The Spurs are 10-3 SU in their past 13 games, but just 4-9 ATS during this span. Part of this poor ATS mark is due to head coach Gregg Popovich resting his star players. Tim Duncan got the night off and Manu Ginobili only played 19 minutes in Saturday’s 109-98 win over Charlotte. San Antonio received great contributions from its bench with Steve Novak pouring in a season-high 19 points, Gary Neal scoring 15 and George Hill adding 12 points.

The Spurs have won 11 straight meetings with Golden State overall, including each of the past seven by at least 11 points, with an average margin of victory of 19.1 PPG. The pick here is San Antonio to win by at least 15 points, and this FoxSheets trend also supports picking the Spurs to cover the big spread.

SAN ANTONIO is 24-11 ATS (68.6%, +11.9 Units) after having won 3 of its last 4 games this season. The average score was SAN ANTONIO 103.2, OPPONENT 95.7 - (Rating = 2*).

And this highly-rated FoxSheets trend supports the Under on Monday.

Play Under - Any team (GOLDEN STATE) - an excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG), after a blowout loss by 20 points or more. (61-23 since 1996.) (72.6%, +35.7 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-21-2011, 05:48 PM

Celtics-Knicks meet in matchup of slumping teams

BOSTON CELTICS (49-19)

at NEW YORK KNICKS (35-34)

Tip-off: Monday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Boston -1.5, Total: 197.5
New York hopes to end its struggles against Boston when it hosts the Celtics at Madison Square Garden on Monday night.

The Knicks have dropped 14 of their past 16 meetings versus Boston, including nine of 11 at MSG. They're coming off a 100-95 loss at Milwaukee on Sunday, which marked their fifth defeat in the past six games. New York is just 7-8 since acquiring Carmelo Anthony (25.0 PPG, 7.3 RPG) from Denver last month, and hit only 38.6% of its field goals (34-of-88) against the Bucks, scoring just nine points in the first quarter. The Knicks were led by Amar’e Stoudemire's (26.1 PPG, 8.3 RPG) 25 points and 11 rebounds and Anthony's 23 points on 7-of-14 shooting. Anthony bounced back nicely from a 2-for-12, six-point effort in a 99-95 loss to Detroit on Friday night. New York is second in the NBA in scoring (106.6 PPG), but has picked up its defense in the past three games, allowing only 99.3 PPG after surrendering 117.3 PPG in the prior three contests.

Boston heads into Monday's game losing four of its past seven games, but its defense has remained strong despite the offensive struggles. The Celtics have allowed 81.8 PPG over the past six contests and lead the NBA by limiting opponents to 91.0 PPG. They broke a three-game road losing streak at New Orleans on Saturday, 89-85, behind Ray Allen (17.3 PPG) and Glen Davis (11.8 PPG, 5.6 RPG) who both finished with 20 points. Boston held the Hornets to 34 points in the second half and 6-of-21 shooting (28.6%) in the third quarter. The Celtics hope Paul Pierce (18.5 PPG, 5.1 RPG) finds his stroke against the Knicks. He's struggled from the field in his past two contests with 19 total points on 3-of-19 shooting, including 1-of-10 from long range. Pierce is shooting only 31% over his past five games, but he averaged 27.0 PPG in his past five visits to New York, and scored 32 points in a Boston win at MSG in December.

The Celtics are 2-0 against the Knicks this season, but both games were close calls. The two teams met in New York on Dec. 15. In that contest, Pierce hit a jumper with 0.4 seconds left while Stoudemire's three-point shot came after the buzzer in a 118-116 Celtics victory. Boston also won, 105-101, at TD Garden on Oct. 29, as Rajon Rondo (10.2 PPG, 11.5 APG) had a career-high 24 assists. Rondo injured his finger in Saturday’s loss, but he is expected to start on Monday.

The Knicks are 4-1 ATS in the past five series meetings in New York and are 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings overall with Boston. The FoxSheets give two more reasons to expect New York to win on Monday.

NEW YORK is 23-8 ATS (74.2%, +14.2 Units) as an underdog this season. The average score was NEW YORK 105.0, OPPONENT 106.2 - (Rating = 3*).

Play On - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW YORK) - off 2 or more consecutive road losses, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team. (56-26 since 1996.) (68.3%, +27.4 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-21-2011, 05:51 PM

Sweet 16 on Deck

March 21, 2011

A couple of years ago, we were lamenting the absence of party-crashers at the Sweet Sixteen. Schools from "major" conferences dominated the field at this stage as recently as 2009. But the college hoops tectonic plates have shifted lately; a year ago, four acknowledged mid-major entries made it into the Sweet Sixteen. And memories of recent Final Four runs by George Mason (in 2006) and Butler (last year) still resonate, indicating that there is room indeed at the head table for mid-major entries, a few more of which have elbowed their way into this week’s Sweet Sixteen.

As for this year’s George Mason or Butler? How about starting with Butler again? Along with a rampant Virginia Commonwealth side and Richmond (which, as an A-10 member, might chafe at being regarded in such company), there are a few more livewire mid-major entries that appear quite capable of crashing the Final Four party once more. (Feel free to also count San Diego State and BYU in that group if you like, although both resided in the top ten for much of the campaign, and their Mountain West Conference was ranked fourth strongest this season. That qualifies the Mountain West as a "major" loop, at least for the moment, although both are fresh faces at this stage of the competition, with the Aztecs reaching this stage for the first time ever, and the Cougars not this far since "the first Jimmer Fredette," Danny Ainge, was in uniform 30 years ago).

First, a quick review of last week’s sub-regional action...

Pointspread dynamics. There seemed to be a handful of mini-trends that might be gaining traction last week, though none really endured through the weekend. Underdogs had slightly the better of it thru Friday action (including the pair of "First Four" games), standing 18-13 against the line (three no-decisions, either from pick’em games or pointspread pushes, such as UNC-Asheville and UA-Little Rock). The chalk made a recovery in Saturday’s Third Round games, covering 6 of 8 (although San Diego State, over Temple in double OT, and Wisconsin, in a last-second thriller vs. Kansas State, cut it about as close as possible to get their respective covers), before the underdogs recovered to take 6 of 8 spread decisions on Sunday.

Big East, or Big Least? There can be no other way to interpret last week’s results by Big East entries other than to say it was a disappointing showing. With eleven entrants into the Dance, many figured that more than half were good bets to make it into the Sweet Sixteen. As it is, the only survivors beyond the weekend happened to beat other Big East entries to advance (UConn over Cincinnati and Marquette over Syracuse). Among the biggest letdowns were St. John’s and Georgetown, each humiliated in their opening-game losses, while Louisville was Thursday’s biggest upset victim when it fell to plucky Morehead State. Then, Southeast top seed Pitt was beaten over the weekend by Butler (in what might have been the strangest last 2 seconds we have ever witnessed in a game), and Southwest 2 seed Notre Dame never even had a look in its decisive Sunday loss to Florida State.

This happens to be the second consecutive year that the Big East has underwhelmed in the Dance, which should cause the architects of the much-debated RPI (Ratings Percentage Index) to consider some sort of adjustment in the mechanics of the system. The "Big East brainwashing" of the college hoops fan base by ESPN and other media outlets has distorted the perception of the conference to the point that even inanimate objects like the RPI are impacted; after all, the RPI exists on information fed into its data base from humans. And if that data is flawed from the outset due to non-impartial sources, the end result will be misleading. Perhaps it’s time to stop penciling every Big East team with 20 wins into the NCAA field ostensibly because of the RPI numbers, which can be inherently flawed.

The ACC is back! It never went away, really, but Florida State’s impressive romp past Notre Dame reminded a Big East and Big Ten-infatuated hoops audience that there is still some pretty good basketball being played in the ACC at places other than Duke and North Caroline. Which, by the way, both also advanced, giving the ACC (in a supposed down year for the loop) more entries into the Sweet Sixteen than any other league.

Player of the weekend. Not that he needs any more accolades, but BYU G Jimmer Fredette stepped up when the spotlight was on, canning 32 points against Wofford and 34 against Gonzaga as the Cougs march into the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1981, when an earlier version of Jimmer, Danny Ainge, scored one of the Big Dance’s most-memorable baskets when weaving upcourt for a driving lay-in with 3 seconds to play to knock Digger Phelps’ Notre Dame from the tournament. Honorable mention to Butler’s indomitable Matt Howard, the bruising senior forward and heart of the Bulldog team whose last-second put-back effort knocked Old Dominion from the tourney last Thursday, and whose free throw with 0:00.8 remaining beat regional top seed Pitt on Saturday. Time and space permit us from re-creating the wild final couple of seconds from that classic in D.C., of which we’re sure you’re familiar by now.

Disappearing act of the weekend. Xavier’s Tu Holloway (20.2 ppg) was the best player in the A-10 this season and seemed to have the Musketeers poised for their fifth sojourn into the Sweet 16 since 2004. Instead, Holloway’s shot went as cold as the hometown Reds’ bats in last year’s NLDS vs. the Phillies, making only 1 of 8 from the floor for a grand total of five points, as the Musketeers put up little fight in their Friday night 66-55 loss vs. Marquette.

Team of the weekend. We suppose there are sixteen we could nominate, but our vote goes to Virginia Commonwealth, which not only dispatched Southern Cal (in the First Four last Wednesday), Georgetown, and Purdue, but did so in increasingly impressive fashion, dominating all. The Rams, with a legit frontline presence in 6'9 Jamie Skeen, an athletic and lengthy group of wings paced by Bradford Burgess, a savvy dagger-thrower in sr. PG Joey Rodriguez, and a serviceable bench, are now the team nobody wants to face. An unlikely Sweet 16 matchup vs. Florida State (how many were projecting that one before Selection Sunday?) in San Antonio awaits on Friday.

Team to watch for next year. Michigan, without a senior on its roster and not likely to lose anyone early to the NBA, had progressed enough by the end of the season that it routed Tennessee in the Second Round of the Dance before almost toppling defending national champ and East top seed Duke on Sunday. Guards Darius Morris, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Stu Douglass all return and could comprise the nation’s best backcourt next season. It will be plenty of fun to see what the shrewd John Beilein can do with this core of talent (which also includes emerging F Jordan Morgan) next season.

City of the weekend. The new hoops capital of the country, at least for a few days, is none other than Richmond, Virginia, with two entries (Richmond and VCU) into the Sweet Sixteen. Considering that the Spiders and Rams are the only Division I schools in the city, that’s not a bad batting average.

Pointspread thriller of the weekend. No shortage of candidates here, from San Diego State’s cover and "over" in its double overtime vs. Temple, to the improbable events of the last seconds in several other games (Kansas State-Wisconsin and North Carolina-Washington two that immediately come to mind). But we doubt we’ll see a better backdoor cover than 8½-point dog Wofford nailing a triple by Terry Martin with 0:00.4 to play to squeeze inside the number by a hook against BYU last Thursday night in Denver. The Terriers had been down as much as 14 points a few moments before, and with Jimmer Fredette and the BYU starters still in the game appeared unlikely to clear the pointspread hurdle (Fredette even tried a 3-pointer with 8 seconds left and the Cougs up by 11). But Wofford kept battling, although for a split second it looked as if G Cameron Rundles would take a uncontested layup in the final seconds instead of selflessly bypassing the shot as he ran under the hoop in the last seconds and finding Martin in the corner. In the sports books here in Las Vegas, it was ecstasy for Terrier backers, agony for those of the Cougs in what was the "pointspread moment" of the tourney so far.

Last thought. Rewind a few months to the end of the college football campaign, and the overblown bowl season, and ask yourself if the way college hoops determines its champion is better than the way football does it. Any doubt about what a sham the bowl season is can be confirmed by simply picking up a copy of Dan Wetzel & Co.’s excellent book Death to the BCS, which we reviewed on these pages a few months ago. Copies are still available on bookshelves across the country. And now might be a good time to give it a look, and contemplate what a letdown college basketball would become if it conducted its postseason the way it is done in football. From that perspective, we’re not sure any college sports fan in the country wouldn’t rather see a football playoff as laid out by Wetzel & Co. (as well as on these pages) in the past.

As for the upcoming hoop action, in most seasons, getting to the Sweet Sixteen is an accomplishment worth celebrating for any team, especially dreamers among the mid-majors, although those sorts often begin to lose sleep the further they progress in March. But what George Mason and Butler have done in the past few years is confirm that the playing field (er, court) has been leveled somewhat between the big, BCS conferences and the rest. Unlike college football, which with rare exception (such as recent gate-crashers Boise State and TCU) continues to feature the same powerhouse teams year after year, college hoops is beginning to more resemble itself from long ago, when entries such as LaSalle, San Francisco, Seattle U, New York U, Loyola-Chicago, Wichita State, Dayton, Drake, and Jacksonville made it all the way to the Final Four. The schools from the big, BCS conferences might not agree, but we think it’s swell that the "non-aristocrats" of the college hoops world are starting to find their way onto the VIP list.

SWEET 16 & ELITE 8 ON DECK!

We’d love to keep talking about last week’s games, but it’s time to review recent Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight history. And there have been a few trends worth noting.

In the Sweet Sixteen, favorites have been in control the past three years, covering 17 of 24 chances, (including 6 of 8 each of the past two seasons. Although the trends have been see-sawing for most of the last decade; the dogs held the advantage the preceding three years (15-8-1 vs. line between 2005-07), while favorites fared better in the previous 4-season span between 2001-04, with the chalk 19-12-1 against the number in those years. The rare double-digit dogs are 9-5 vs. the line in the Sweet 16 since 1999, but like a year ago there don’t appear to be any in 2011. Among conference pointspread trends, we were expecting to test the mighty Big East’s shortcomings in this round (just 12-21-2 since 1998), but with only 2 of 11 from the loop advancing through sub-regional weekend, it looks like just another league as the Sweet Sixteen tips off.

More illuminating trends appear in the Elite 8, where underdogs have recorded a notable 31-19 spread mark since ‘98 (with two pick’ems). Last year, three of the four underdogs covered in this round. Conference-wise, note that Big Ten teams (two of which are still alive heading into this weekend) stand 11-5 vs. the line in the Elite 8 since ‘98, while the Big XII reps are only 4-14 in this round against the number over the same span, losing and failing to cover three times he past two seasons. Shorter-priced Elite 8 chalk (laying 3½ or fewer) is just 4-12 vs. the line in that 13-season span.

Following are the specific breakdowns (not including pick’ems or result "pushes") by pointspread category and conferences for the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 since 1998; 2010 spread records appear in ( ).

SWEET SIXTEEN FAVORITES

Spread category W-L

1-3 points..........17-13 (1-0)
3½-6½...............16-17 (3-2)
7-9½................14-9 (2-0)
10 or more points...5-9 (0-0)
Total...............52-48 (6-2)

Spread record by conference: ACC 13-12-1 (1-0), Atlantic 10-7-2 )-1), Big East 12-21 (1-1), Big Ten 16-12 (2-1), Big XII 16-10 (2-0), CAA 1-0, C-USA 5-3, Horizon 2-2 (1-0), MAC 1-1, Mid-Continent 1-0, MVC 1-4, Mountain West 0-2, Pac-10 9-15 (0-1), SEC 12-11 (1-1), SoCon 1-0, Sun Belt 1-0, WAC 2-1, West Coast 2-4 (0-1).

ELITE EIGHT FAVORITES

Spread category W-L

1-3 points..........4-12 (0-1)
3½-6½...............11-10 (1-2)
7-9½................3-6 (0-0)
10 or more points...1-3 (0-0)
Total..............19-31 (1-3)

Spread record by conference since 1998: ACC 8-6 (1-0), Atlantic 10 3-2, Big East 8-8 (1-0), Big Ten 11-4 (1-0), Big XII 4-14 (0-2), CAA 1-0, C-USA 2-3, Horizon 1-0 (1-0), Pac-10 6-6, SEC 7-4 (2-0), SoCon 1-0, WAC 1-1, West Coast 1-0.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-21-2011, 05:52 PM

Sweet 16 and Elite 8 Angles

March 21, 2011

There is nothing sweeter this time of the year than being alive in the NCAA Tournament. For those teams that survived the opening two rounds of this main event it's on to the Sweet 16 and, hopefully, the Eilte 8 this weekend.

From out powerful database, here are notes of the teams that have arrived. Stay tuned…

(SU - Straight Up, ATS - Against the Spread)

SWEET 16 ROUND NOTES:

#1 Seed favs < 11 pts off back-to-back SU and ATS wins are 18-5 ATS
#2 Seeds are 12-5 ATS vs. opponents off a SU dog win
#3 Seed favs off BB SU and ATS wins are 2-10 ATS
#4 Seed dogs are 2-9 ATS vs. foes off BB SU and ATS wins
#5 Seeds are 5-0-1 ATS as DD dogs
#6 Seeds off a DD ATS win are 1-8 ATS
#7 Seed or worse dogs 2 > pts are 2-10 ATS
Favorites of 9 > pts are 16-6-1 ATS vs. opp off BB SU and ATS wins
Favorites off BB SU wins of 15 > pts are 12-3 ATS
Underdogs of 11 > pts are 7-2 ATS

Best Team ATS record in this round

North Carolina: 5-1

Worst Team ATS record in this round

Kansas: 3-8

Best Conference ATS records in this round

Atlantic 10: 6-0-1
Big 12: 5-1-1
SEC: 9-3 as dogs
Big 10: 16-7

Worst Conference ATS records in this round

ACC: 0-4 as favs < 8 pts
Big East: 1-8 as favs < 7 pts
Pac 10: 1-8 as dogs 2 > pts

ELITE 8 ROUND NOTES:

#1 Seed favs > 7 pts are 0-7 ATS vs foe off BB ATS wins
#2 Seeds are 2-9-1 ATS off a double-digit ATS win
#3 Seeds are 1-5 ATS
#4 Seeds are 7-1 ATS
#5 Seeds are 6-0 SU and ATS
#6 Seeds are 0-7 SU
#8 Seeds are 3-1 ATS
Teams that score 67 < pts are 11-37 SU and 11-36-1 ATS
Teams that score 85 > pts are 27-7 SU and 24-8-2 ATS
Teams off BB ATS losses are 6-2 ATS
Teams with Revenge are 13-4-1 ATS
Dogs off 3 straight DD wins are 1-4-1 ATS
Best Conference ATS record in this round

Big East: 6-1-1 as dog

Worst Conference ATS record in this round

Big 12: 0-9

COACH ME IF YOU CAN:

Florida's Billy Donovan is 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS in the NCAA tournament from the Sweet 16 out.
I'll be back next week with a final look at Final Four and Championship game action. Enjoy the games.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-21-2011, 05:54 PM

Las Vegas Betting Notes

March 21, 2011

Las Vegas Sports Books have never seen the type of Madness that just passed through town over the four day weekend of the NCAA basketball tournament. For each and every employee of sports books around town, they were put to a grind like never before with the combination of never ending lines of bettors that began early and ended late.

Supervisors and Directors were put to the task of ensuring everything went smooth from their end with the ultimate goal of giving the guest their best experience possible, while also hoping to grind out a win with all the cash that came through.

There is no official stat that the state keeps immediately after these fours days of games like they do for the Super Bowl, but all indications are that the handle will be up considerably.

"Our handle over the weekend was relatively flat to last year, " said Las Vegas Hilton Executive Director Jay Kornegay, "But last years figures were inflated considerably for us due to us having big house players playing large money on the games that we didn't see this year. The great indicator for us this year was ticket counts which were up about 10%."

The volume and handle for most books were up, and every book worked harder than ever, most doing so with less labor thanks to the economic climate the city is still in. By the time Saturday's games rolled around, many ticket writers found themselves looking for the sign from the bullpen that relief was coming to close out the game, but the sign never came; they had to just keep on plugging away, punching tickets like they never had before.

"I really felt sorry for the writers, said Kornegay. "The crowds were overwhelming and it was so much work for the tellers, with much of the extra efforts coming due to the new staggered schedule."

The staggered schedule spread out the games giving bettors ample time to make their wagers which created more business than what has bee seen on the same weekend over the years. However, the high volume of action didn't neccessarily equate to more win.

College basketball betting isn't as one sided with favorites like the NFL or college football is, but they still generate the most curiosity and intrique with the betting public. Thursday's opening day saw the favorites go 7-5-1 which equated to a small win for most, but still had the risk from those games heading into Friday's where the books were helped by quite a few upsets with the favorites going 5-11. The action was massive, but the hold wasn't.

When Saturday's results started getting posted there was all kinds of mounting liability with big parlays shaping up as the favorites went 7-1. One of the biggest turnarounds that went the bettors’ way was when San Diego State found themselves in a battle with Temple. The Aztecs were 5 1/2-point favorites and were forced to double overtime where they ended up winning by seven. Due to overtime, the total of 125 1/2 was also affected as it took the second overtime to push the total over the number, a side the majority of parlays around the city had.

"The San Diego State game was by far the worst game for our books," said Lucky's Sports Book Director Jimmy Vaccaro, "That game helped a lot of players keep their parlays alive, but when everything was tallied after Sunday's games, we had a good week."

With all of that risk carrying over to Sunday's games ready to pay out at a rate of 10 and 20-to-1, the sports books would need a miracle to get out of the day unscathed somewhat, and they got it. Almost all the favorites fell going 2-6 on the day with only Ohio State and Kansas taking care of business for the bettors while their popular choices of Syracuse, Purdue, Notre Dame and Arizona all were beat straight up.

After everything was tallied, the overall win results were mixed around Las Vegas, but the one constant was that the action was non-stop like never seen before. After talking with a few sports book Directors in town, I could hear the exhausted tone in their voice as if they had just run a marathon. And in many ways, they had just run one, a four day mental marathon.

Every one who worked in the sports book last weekend, from the top, all the way down to the bottom, deserves a round of applause for putting on arguably one of the most entertaining shows Las Vegas visitors could witness over the weekend.

The money was flowing freely from the bettors and the results from that cash flow is going to be quite apparent in all other aspects of casino operations as well. ?

Getting Value in Futures with Kansas
The Sweet 16 offers all kinds of variety that we all crave for March Madness giving us a nice mix of favorites with three No. 1 seeds still alive along with some Cinderella's in the making with five teams seeded eighth or higher. Because of all the upsets, you can see the math in the possible matchups changing the future odds drastically at the Las Vegas Hilton.

The team that stands out the most is Kansas in their region where they'll face at least two Cinderella stories if they hope to make the Final Four. Kansas came into the tournament as the third choice at 5-to-1, but are now co-favorites to win it all with Duke and Ohio State at 5-to-2, both of whom have a much more difficult road ahead of them than Kansas.

The Buckeyes have to beat Kentucky and then possibly Norh Carolina to make it while Duke has to face Arizona and then either No. 2 seed San Diego State or No. 3 seed Connecticut. Kansas, meanwhile, has the luxury of playing a No. 12 seed and then either a No. 11 or No. 10 seed to make the Final Four, a much easier road to navigate than their two co-favorites.

Kansas will be huge favorites in their next two games and then a considerable favorite in the Final Four semi-final match. Should they make the final, they would be favored over everyone but Ohio State which makes the four game money-line parlay tough to match what the Hilton is offering now.

Usually with favorites at this stage, it's tough to get value on the futures and the best method is to bet each game on the money-line and roll over the winnings. In this case, Kansas does have upside value, especially if Ohio State or Duke don't make the Championship game.

VCU says "Take That!"
One of the greatest stories of the tournament thus far has been the path paved by Virginia Commonwealth, becoming the first team ever to win three games in the first week of play. It was only a week ago that everyone in the nation with any opinion on college basketball felt that VCU didn't belong as one of the top 68 teams in the nation, but they have gone on to prove them all wrong with their play on the big stage. Perhaps all the talk and attention they were getting nationally -- for not belonging -- inspired them to play at their best.

The Colonial conference gave a great showing with George Mason taking out Villanova before losing to top-seeded Ohio State and then Old Dominion took Butler, a team in the sweet 16, to the final seconds of their first round game. It's kind of ironic that a conference like Big East that had 11 teams make the tournament now have as many teams alive in the tournament as the city of Richmond, VA has. ?

Rebel Yell

Having watched UNLV play in almost every game since the early 80's, I can't remember many losses -- maybe only Duke in the Final Four -- I was more disappointed then their 73-62 loss to Illinois, a game that wasn't as close as the score suggests. The Illini shot almost 60% from the field, but committed 15 turnovers and still made the Rebels look like they were a team that didn't belong in the final 68. Once Illionis got out to hefty lead early on, it was as if the big stage lights had the Rebels forgetting everything they did to get them there, mainly their defense. Once their confidence was shattered, they continually made poor decisions and couldn't make a basket.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-21-2011, 06:16 PM

NBAMonday, March 21

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Indiana - 7:00 PM ET Indiana -3.5 500
New Jersey - Over 195 500

Orlando - 7:00 PM ET Cleveland +12 500
Cleveland - Over 193 500

Boston - 7:30 PM ET New York +1.5 500
New York - Over 197.5 500

Sacramento - 8:00 PM ET Sacramento +15.5 500
Chicago - Under 196.500

Utah - 8:00 PM ET Utah +8 500
Memphis - Under 202.5 500

Golden State - 8:30 PM ET San Antonio -11 500 9 NBA POD )
San Antonio - Under 209.5 500 ( NBA TOTAL POD )

Toronto - 9:00 PM ET Denver -12.5 500
Denver - Over 214 500

-----------------------------------------------------------

NHLMonday, March 21

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Pittsburgh - 7:30 PM ET Pittsburgh +151 500
Detroit - Under 5.5 500

Calgary - 10:30 PM ET Los Angeles -161 500
Los Angeles - Over 5 500

-----------------------------------------------------------

NCAABMonday, March 21

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Missouri St. - 7:00 PM ET Miami - Florida -5 500
Miami - Florida - Over 135 500

Rhode Island - 7:00 PM ET Rhode Island +6 500
Central Florida - Over 132.5 500

Davidson - 8:00 PM ET Creighton -6.5 500
Creighton - Over 138.5 500

Southern Methodist - 8:00 PM ET Southern Methodist +7 500
Northern Iowa - Over 119 500

Evansville - 9:00 PM ET Evansville +9.5 500
Boise St. - Over 143 500

New Mexico - 9:00 PM ET Alabama -6 500 (POD )
Alabama - Under 129 500

Duquesne - 10:00 PM ET Duquesne +1 500 ( POD # 2 )
Oregon - Over 150 500 ( Total of the Night )

Oklahoma St. - 11:30 PM ET Washington St. -6.5 500
Washington St. - Over 139 500

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