AAA:
1* on Michigan
1.5* on Wich State
2* on MS. State; Cal Santa Barbara & Ohio State
ALATEX:
Regular on Marshall, Nebraska, Butler & Grizzlies
Super on Florida
CHAMPION:
3* on Fullerton, Memphis, Fordham & Grizzlies
4* on Creighton
LV SPORTS:
Regular on Seton Hall, Detroit & Grizzlies
Top on Boise
GUARANTEED:
Regular on Florida & Nebraska
OCD PICKS:
2* on Arkansas State & Memphis
3* on Northern Illinois
5* on Princeton
TONY DIAMOND:
3* on Kansas, Mizzo & Fresno
5* on Spurs
MAGLIOSA:
Regular on Florida International
Top on Wisconsin
PRIVATE PLAYERS:
Regular on Mizzu, UNLV, Arizona, UNCC, Niagra & Evansville
Top on SWMO, Tennessee, Tennessee Tech & West Virginia
Special on Detroit & BYU
WINN REPORT:
1* on Richmond & Memphis
2* on Indiana State & Grizzlies
Wichita State (+1.5) at SW Missouri State - 1:00pm Pacific
The Shocker's are the preseason favorite to win the Missouri Valley Conference. This will be their first conference game and first big test. They return four starters and their top six scorers from last season. Junior guard Randy Burns is solidly built and is equally adept at scoring from the outside and slashing to the basket. Junior forward Jamar Howard is equally as versatile and is a tremendous defender (conference defensive player of the year last season). Both are likely to be on the all conference team at the end of the season. Senior point guard "Fridge" Holman is lightning quick with the ball and can set up easy baskets if SMS decides to play any kind of full court press. 6-10 sophomore center Paul Miller provides good size along with junior forward Rob Kampan. There is plenty of experience and depth here. Eight players saw more than 15 minutes of action at KSU in last game.
WSU comes in at 5-2, both of their losses could easily have been wins. They lost by 3 in Puerto Rico Paradise Jam Final vs Boston College and by 4 at Kansas State on Wednesday. They played poorly vs KSU, it was definitely their worst offensive showing of the season as they scored only 50 points. Howard, the teams leading scorer, sprained his knee in practice two days before the game and did not start. He ended up playing 31 minutes and looked close to his normal self, but not quite 100%. Shockers led by as much as 10 in the second half, but poor shot selection, poor shooting, poor rebounding (due to playing a lot of zone defense), and turnovers led to a four point loss. They never trailed by more than four in the entire game despite not playing to their ability. Two games back, the Shockers won on the road by 17 at Manhattan over a Jasper team that returned four starters from an NCAA tournament team.
SMS lost what head coach Barry Hinson called "the backbone of our team" when guard Terrance McGee graduated. Four starters return this year, but McGee led the Bears in minutes played, scoring, 3-pointers made, free throws made, assists, and steals, all by decided margins. The Bears are still trying to figure out the right lineups (three different starting lineups so far) and roles for its current group of players. Coach Hinson cannot be pleased to play the conference favorite this early in the season. SMS is coming off a 14 point road loss (as a 7 point favorite) at San Diego on Wednesday. USD is not a good team yet they led from start to finish and won in convincing fashion. This is despite SMS reserve guard Ahearn hitting 6 second half 3-pointers. The Bears are 7-12 straight up the last two seasons in games played before Christmas. SMS finished last season 1-4 ATS and are 1-3 ATS so far this season.
Wichita State won both meetings, home and away, vs SMS last season. With SMS losing such a key player, WSU appears to easily be the more improved team from last year. The Shockers did well on the road in conference play last season. They went 5-4 straight up and 7-2 ATS in MVC road games. Wichita State has played a much tougher schedule and have been in more competitive games than SMS this year which should do them well. Their team continuity is far ahead that of SMS at this point in the season. Shockers are coming off a bitter loss at Kansas State in which they played poorly but they know a win here in conference play will erase that and more.
Wichita State 1 UNIT
Xavier at Mississippi State (-4.5) - 5:00pm Pacific
I had anticipated it would take some time for this Bulldogs team to come together, but they are already playing great basketball. A week ago, they did not play their best but still were able to rally from a nine point second half deficit to beat a very good UAB team. They overcame a 38 point performance from Blazer guard Mo Finley. Three games back Miss State ended Western Kentucky's 39 game home winning streak with a quality six point road win. They are now a perfect 6-0 on the season. Baylor transfer Lawrence Roberts is the real deal. He is averaging a double double for the season, 15.2ppg & 11.3rpg. Roberts hit the game winner vs UAB and finished with 19 points & 9 rebounds despite playing only 27 minutes due to foul trouble. A surprise so far this year has been the play of junior guard Winsome Frazier. A preseason injury to Ontario Harper has opened up more playing time for Frazier, and he has taken advantage of the opportunity. He is leading the team in scoring and steals through the first six games and has looked good doing it. Senior guard Timmy Bowers, a preseason all-conference pick, is playing solid as expected. He is second on the team with a 16.2ppg average and leads the team with 4.8 assists per game. Seven foot junior Marcus Campbell is providing quality starter minutes (11.7ppg, 6.3rpg) as is senior forward Brandon Vincent (7.7ppg, 7.0rpg). Iowa State transfer junior G/F Shane Power (8.0ppg, .455 from behind the arc) and good looking freshman point guard Gary Ervin (3.5 assists, in just 19 minutes per game) provide quality depth. They can also steal some inside minutes with senior F/C Lincoln Smith off the bench.
Xavier heads in with a 4-2 record and will be playing their fourth consecutive game away from the Cintas Center. After starting 3-0 vs cupcake opponents at home, the Musketeers gave a poor showing at Ball State losing by 12. They then rallied from a 14 point half-time deficit vs Indiana only to lose in overtime. They finally got their first road win over Miami, Ohio on Tuesday in ugly fashion. The game was actually tied 24-24 with 13 minutes to play in the 2nd half, before Xavier broke it open and won 55-36. Miami-Ohio finished a miserable 1-for-12 from 3-point range which hurt their chances considerably. Xavier was not much better, finishing 3-for-16 from behind the arc. The Musketeers got a combined 2 points and 3 rebounds from starting forward Anthony Myles and starting center Will Caudle in the win. That just is not going to get it done. With the lack of an inside presence, lead guards Romain Sato (38% FG) and Lionel Chalmers (32% FG) have struggled. Despite playing all undersized teams thus far, Xavier has a rebounding margin of just +1.5, and Sato, a guard, leads the team in rebounding. Mississippi State comes in with a rebounding margin of +8.8 and should control the glass in this matchup.
Miss State handled Xavier pretty easily in last years meeting which was held on a neutral court in New York. The Bulldogs led by 18 at half and won by a final margin of 10. I see no reason why a similar result should not be expected on their home court. Both teams lost a lot from last year but the addition of Roberts for Miss State has taken pressure off of others and allowed everyone to adjust to their new roles well. The same cannot be said for Xavier who lost David West and his 20.1ppg, 11.8rpg, 52 blocks, and 42 steals (all team highs). They have no one even close to replace him. Under Rick Stansbury, Miss State is 65-13 at home at home and 35-3 at home vs non-conference opponents. Despite failing to cover in all three lined home games this season, Miss State is still 23-13 ATS (63.8%) at home in past 2+ seasons.
Mississippi State 1 UNIT
Richmond (-1) at South Florida - 5:00pm Pacific
RPI rankings do not mean a whole lot this early in the season, but the Spiders enter the game with a #20 ranking and by RPI standards have played the 11th most difficult schedule in the country. They are 4-3 on the season but they were undermanned when losing by 6 to South Carolina and by 8 at UAB and their most recent loss came at Wake Forest. UAB and Wake Forest by my own estimation are very good teams and South Carolina has yet to lose this season. Richmond is now in its second season under head coach Jerry Wainwright (formerly at UNC-Wilmington) and should be more comfortable in his system. Four starters are back from last season and they return Reggie Brown who led the team in scoring two seasons ago but missed all of last season with injury. Brown missed the losses vs South Carolina (in Missouri) and at UAB, but returned to play a season high 26 minutes vs Wake Forest a week ago. He is one of the top offensive weapons on the team. Fellow seniors Tony Dobbins (conference defensive player of the year last season) and Mike Skrocki (16.6ppg this season) are returning double digit scorers. Junior forward Jamaal Scott and senior center Eric Zwayer are also back. True freshman point guard Daon Merritt (A-10 newcomer of the week) has played well averaging 7.6ppg & 4.0apg. 6-11 sophomore Kevin Steenberge (14.0 minutes per game) provides good size. Freshman Gaston Moliva, junior Patrick O'Malley, and sophomore Jermaine Bucknow all are averaging double figures in minutes.
I will continue to look to bet against South Florida until they give me a good reason not to. The Bulls have looked downright ugly in past two road games losing by 24 at Providence and by 23 at Nebraska. Leading returning scorer Jimmy Baxter has yet to adjust to new role as go to guy and fellow returning starter Marlyn Bryant is still not himself following offseason surgery. No one on this team is a consistent scoring threat. The Bulls top three scorers have combined for 62 made field goals and 54 turnovers. Seven different players have started as first year coach McCullum is scrambling to find answers. Thinly built center Gerrick Morris is a terrific shotblocker and averaged 10.0ppg in first three games vs weak teams but his offense disappeared when the opposition got tougher (6 points combined in last two games despite playing heavy minutes). There are not many other options down low for the Bulls. South Florida returns home today but it takes a much bigger name than Richmond to even fill half of their arena. Only 2700 showed up for home opener vs Wright State and the Sun Dome has a capacity of 10,000+. Again, it will be quite some time before coach McCullum is able to transform Seth Greenberg's players into his own. In the meantime this team will continue to struggle. They are not doing anything well at the moment.
Richmond is a very well coached team and very experienced with four seniors and two juniors in the rotation. They are already battle tested this season with games vs South Carolina, vs VCU, at UAB, and at Wake Forest. They have been competitive in every game including last week in Winston Salem where they gave the Deacs all they wanted and were within one point on multiple occasions in the second half. Coach Wainwright scheduled aggressively this season as the Spiders still have upcoming non-conference games vs Manhattan at MSG, vs Providence, at Colorado, and at Kansas. This is a road win they need. This will be somewhat of a homecoming for Richmond senior center Eric Zwayer who hails from nearby Sebring, FL. An inspired effort from him down low will be another plus for the Spiders.
hey frankb, are u interested in splitting costs for mti's daily 4 and 5*? if they have them, we could alternate in buying them or something....lemme know [email protected]
This is a look ahead pick from Tom Stryker's premiuim newsletter
Carolina (-6.5 / 39) at ARIZONA at 4:15 PM EST - 4* KEY RELEASE
Put me down on Carolina here. The Panthers have historically crushed sub .500 opponents posting a strong 45-25-1 ATS record including sweet 22-6 ATS if Carolina was on the road last. That doesn't bode well for Arizona. Neither does this: In their last 36 games matched up against winning teams, the Cardinals are a soft 8-28 SU and 12-23-1 ATS. Even though 'Zona has been competitive in the desert, my hard earned cash will be on the Panthers here.
4* KEY RELEASE CAROLINA 27 Arizona 10
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