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**StarDust Bum** · 03-19-2011, 12:39 PM

NCAA Tournament Round of 32 Trends

We continue to get you ready for the NCAA Tournament with a series of columns uncovering recent trends in the Big Dance. Previous stories include:
Overall Trends
Analyzing Early Upsets
Round of 64 Trends
This column focuses on the Round of 32, which is now referred to as the Third Round because of the inclusion of the First Four games.

Round of 32
After a 2009 tournament that saw only one second-round upset, there were six lower seeded teams that advanced to the Sweet 16 in 2010. #14 Murray State covered the spread in a two-point loss to #5 Butler to give lower seeded teams a 7-9 ATS mark in last year’s second round. The OVER had a slight 9-7 edge in these games last year after going 12-4 in 2009.

The six upsets were split 3/3 in terms of Saturday and Sunday, but Sunday is usually the bigger upset day with 39 of the 67 lower-seed wins (58%) happening then. The Sunday lower seeds are 39-53 SU (42%) and 50-46 ATS (52%).

Northern Iowa’s stunning upset of Kansas last year as an 11.5-point underdog broke a string of 23 straight SU wins for double-digit favorites in Round 2. Teams laying 10+ points are now 17-7 ATS (71%) since 2001.

The #3 seed had survived the first weekend in all eight instances from 2008-2009, going 7-1 ATS. But only one of the four #3 seeds (Baylor) reached the Sweet 16 last year. The #3 seed game is 10-4-1 OVER (71%) the total since 2007.

Only one #4 seed reached the Sweet 16 last year, which makes them 17-20 SU & 12-25 ATS (32%) since 1998.

First-round upset winners were 5-5 ATS in the second round last year, but were only 4-11 ATS (27%) when going for back-to-back wins over better seeds in the previous two years.

In second-round games where a double-digit seed has faced a team seeded #6 or worse, the better seed is 9-0 SU & 8-0-1 ATS over the last 12 years. There was only one instance of this last year, as #14 Ohio was crushed by #6 Tennessee 83-68 in Round 2.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-19-2011, 12:39 PM

Kentucky looks for payback vs. West Virginia

#5 seed WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS (21-11)

vs. #4 seed KENTUCKY WILDCATS (25-8)

NCAA Tournament – Third Round
Tip-off: Saturday, 12:15 p.m. EDT – Tampa, FL
Line: Kentucky -3.5, Total: 132

It’s not easy raising kiddie cats into Wildcats. That is a growing process that John Calipari seems to be reminded of time after time this season. When you have a team with just one senior and three freshmen starters, the learning curve is like a NASCAR race, always another left turn and curveball to come. The NCAA Tournament is fraught with new lesson plans for the 2011 SEC Tournament Champions. Thursday they passed a major test when they were pushed to the brink against the tempo-savvy Princeton Tigers before advancing with a two-point win. Now comes Saturday afternoon, when they must try and exorcise the demons of the past (last season) and knock off a West Virginia team that delivered a painful lesson to last year’s squad of young and highly-touted freshmen in the Elite Eight round. The lesson: come strong if you want to play ball with the big boys.

The Mountaineers are coming off an 84-76 victory over a Clemson team that had just played 36 hours prior, in another city (thank you, NCAA schedule makers). West Virginia looked like the tired team early on, as it got off to a slow start, but juniors Darryl “Truck” Bryant and Kevin Jones scored 19 and 17 points respectively. The Mountaineers used a 28-8 run spanning the end of the first half and the start of the second half to turn a deficit into a 40-40 halftime tie and then a 57-47 second-half advantage. Bryant converted on a four-point play during the run, which helped the team pull even at the break. Bob Huggins’ team also got a big lift off the bench from sophomore guard Dalton Pepper, who contributed 10 points, three steals and three rebounds in 17 minutes of play. The point output tied Pepper’s season high and was the most points he has scored since January 26. West Virginia also incorporated a 1-3-1 defense to slow down Clemson‘s perimeter game in the second half. "We were mixing up defenses and we were getting in the passing lanes and stuff," said Dalton, "I don't think they were ready for it, and we just caught them off guard and got a few steals." Prone to cold shooting days, West Virginia shot 49.1% versus the Tigers, well above its season average of 42.7%. Huggins’ team also defended the three-pointer extremely well, holding Clemson to 5-for-21 shooting (23.8%) from beyond the arc. For the year, West Virginia is holding opponents to 28.8% shooting from beyond the arc (5th-best in Division I). The ability to bring that level of defense to the table against Kentucky, a team that loves the three ball more than Donald Trump loves attention, will be the deciding factor as to whether West Virginia can upset the ‘Cats.

We talk every year in the tournament about the need for a contender to survive a nail-biter, to survive, and advance, irrelevant of the style points. If that is true, Kentucky definitely had its “scare moment” against Princeton Thursday afternoon. Consider that Kentucky’s leading scorer, freshman guard Brandon Knight, was sitting on the bench without a point with a minute to play in a two-point game. Unafraid, Knight’s driving layup with 0:02 left in regulation allowed the ‘Cats to escape in the truest sense of the word, 59-57. For Calipari, nothing that he saw in the final seconds surprised him. "I have all the faith and confidence in the world in him," coach John Calipari said. "He's not afraid to make a play. Guys like him aren't afraid to miss." "If we lose that game, the season's over," said Knight, who grew up about four hours south in Fort Lauderdale. "I would have been happy as long as we won, no matter who hit the shot. I was just fortunate enough to be in that situation to help my team get that win.” Now Kentucky must take on a West Virginia team that is much more familiar to Calipari than it is to his freshman players. It was just 12 months ago when the Mountaineers defeated UK 73-66 in the East regional final last season in Syracuse. In that game, WVU held the ‘Cats to 34.3% shooting, and a putrid 12.5% (4-for-32) from three-point territory. Kentucky missed its first 20 three-point attempts, while West Virginia made eight three-pointers in the first half, without scoring a two-point basket. Calipari is hoping that his team’s three-point shooting eye (39.8% for the year, 11th-best in Division I) returns Saturday afternoon in Tampa. He does not want to see his season come crashing to a conclusion for a second straight year at the hands of Huggins’ older, wiser Mountaineers. But that’s exactly what we expect to happen with the experienced West Virginia team pulling off the mild upset. This highly-rated FoxSheets trend provides another reason to pick the Mountaineers.

WEST VIRGINIA is 17-3 ATS (85.0%, +13.7 Units) in NCAA Tournament games since 1997. The average score was WEST VIRGINIA 72.8, OPPONENT 67.4 - (Rating = 3*).

This four-star FoxSheets trend likes the Under for Saturday’s game.

WEST VIRGINIA is 17-3 UNDER (85.0%, +13.7 Units) after scoring 80 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The average score was WEST VIRGINIA 69.2, OPPONENT 59.6 - (Rating = 4*).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-19-2011, 12:41 PM

Road-weary Celtics visit New Orleans Saturday

BOSTON CELTICS (48-19)

at NEW ORLEANS HORNETS (40-30)

Tip-off: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Pick, Total: 180

The Celtics visit the Hornets on Saturday, hoping to avoid losing the season series to New Orleans for the first time since 2006-07. The Hornets defeated the Celtics in Boston 83-81 on New Year's Eve.

The Celtics are 30-34 ATS this season, which includes a 15-17 record ATS on the road. With its embarrassing 93-77 loss at Houston Friday night, Boston has now lost six of its past eight ATS overall, and four straight on the road. The Celtics were held to a season-low 81 points in their last meeting against the Hornets in December. Boston played that game without both Rajon Rando and Kevin Garnett who were out with injuries. Garnett has struggled lately, averaging just 12.4 PPG on 45.6% FG over his past eight games. Garnett has also struggled in his past three games against the Hornets, averaging 11.3 PPG while shooting just 43.2 percent from the field. Ray Allen led the Celtics with 18 points against New Orleans earlier this season, but struggled in his previous four games against them, averaging 9.8 PPG while shooting 42.9 percent from the field.

New Orleans is 34-33 ATS this season and 16-17 ATS at home this season. The Hornets pushed their last game against Phoenix on Wednesday after having won five of their previous six games ATS. The Hornets, who have been one of the best teams in the NBA defensively this season and lead the Western Conference allowing just 93.0 PPG, recovered nicely against Phoenix after suffering a major breakdown in their previous game against Denver. After allowing a season-high 17 three-pointers and 114 points in falling to Denver, New Orleans held the Suns to 95 points and 6-of-17 shooting from behind the arc. After missing a game due to a mild-concussion, Chris Paul has returned to his dominant self over his past three games. He is averaging 28.7 PPG, 11.3 APG and shooting 58.5 percent from the field over those games. Paul scored 20 points and dished out 11 assists in the Hornets win at Boston earlier this season.

New Orleans has won its past two against Boston after losing their previous for against them. The Celtics are just 10-15 ATS as a road favorite this season and a dismal 3-11 ATS with zero days rest. That’s convincing enough to take New Orleans at home against a tired Boston team. These two FoxSheets trends provide more backing for the Hornets.

BOSTON is 12-24 ATS (33.3%, -14.4 Units) when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons. The average score was BOSTON 98.7, OPPONENT 97.8 - (Rating = 1*).

NEW ORLEANS is 20-10 ATS (66.7%, +9.0 Units) when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season. The average score was NEW ORLEANS 94.1, OPPONENT 88.5 - (Rating = 1*).

Both of these teams play outstanding defense, which should make for an offensive struggle on Saturday night. This highly-rated FoxSheets trend likes the Under for Saturday’s game.

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (BOSTON) - good 3-PT shooting team (>=36.5%) against an average 3-PT shooting team (33-36.5%), in a game involving two good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) after 42+ games. (122-66 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.9%, +49.4 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-19-2011, 12:42 PM

James looks to stay hot hosting Denver

DENVER NUGGETS (41-28)

at MIAMI HEAT (47-22)

Tip-off: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Miami -8, Total: 206

The Nuggets and Heat face off for the second time this season on Saturday. Denver took the first meeting in the Mile-High City in January, but has acquired a new cast of players since then. Also, LeBron James did not play in that first meeting. The Nuggets will be looking to take the season series for the fifth time in the last six seasons.

Denver dropped an 85-82 decision at Orlando Friday night, but covered the spread. The Nuggets are now 36-31 ATS this season and 19-16 ATS on the road. They have been excellent ATS recently, winning five straight and 12 of 13 overall, while winning four straight and seven of eight ATS on the road. Denver has been very satisfied with the results of trading Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups, as it has gone 9-3 since sending both players to New York. Before making just 36% FG on Friday, Denver had shot better than 53 percent in three previous games and had at least five players score in double figures in four previous outings. J.R. Smith has been on fire from three-point range in his past four games, making 18-of-33 shots (55%). Smith led all players with 28 points and shot 8-of-14 from behind the arc in Denver’s win against the Heat in January.

Although Miami had no trouble covering a six-point spread at Atlanta Friday, winning by 21 points, The Heat have struggled all season ATS, posting a 32-35 record. They have really done poorly ATS at home with a 13-21 record (38%), but they have won three of their past four ATS at home. After scoring just seven points on 3-of-7 shooting in a loss against Portland, Chris Bosh has averaged 22.0 PPG, 10.4 RPG and 55.1% FG in his past five games. LeBron James, who scored 43 points (16-21 FG) in just 31 minutes at Atlanta, did not play early this season against Denver. James has averaged 37.0 PPG in his past three games against the Nuggets as a member of the Cavaliers. Dwyane Wade scored just 16 points in Miami’s loss earlier this season, but averaged 28.0 PPG in his previous 10 games against the Nuggets.

Denver has owned this series recently, winning 10 of its past 11 meetings. The Nuggets lost in their last visit to Miami, but that snapped a four-game win streak there. Expect Denver to keep this game tight throughout and cover the spread. These two FoxSheets trends give more support for playing against the Heat on Saturday.

MIAMI is 7-20 ATS (25.9%, -15.0 Units) versus good 3-point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MIAMI 93.1, OPPONENT 95.7 - (Rating = 2*).

Play Against - Home teams (MIAMI) - revenging a road loss vs. opponent, extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days. (433-329 over the last 5 seasons.) (56.8%, +71.1 units. Rating = 2*).

Eight of the past 13 games in this series (62%) played at Miami have finished Under the total and this highly-rated FoxSheets trend also thinks the Under will occur on Saturday night.

Play Under - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DENVER) - in a game involving two good three point shooting teams (>=36.5%), in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game). (202-118 over the last 5 seasons.) (63.1%, +72.2 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-19-2011, 12:43 PM

NCAA Tournament Odds: Aztecs, Owls in Tucson tussle

They both took care of business with wins and covers as first-round favorites. Now the San Diego State Aztecs and Temple Owls will lace up their sneakers for Saturday's matchup to decide who heads to Anaheim next week as part of the West Region's Sweet 16 field.

TNT will broadcast Saturday's contest from McHale Center in Tucson starting a little past 3:10 p.m. (PT). The Aztecs are six-point favorites with 125-126 for the game total on the Don Best odds screen.

If Temple is going to pull the outright upset, the Owls will become just the second team to take down SDSU this season. Both of the Aztecs' losses came at the hands of Jimmer Fredette and the BYU Cougars during the regular season, something Steve Fisher's squad avenged with a 72-54 shellacking of the Cougars in the Mountain West Tournament Championship Game. Ranked in the top 10 of both polls since just before Christmas, the MWC title lifted the Aztecs to a 2-seed in the West Region.

San Diego State (33-2 straight up, 21-12 against the spread) took care of business in its Thursday opener with another 18-point triumph, knocking off Northern Colorado 68-50 as 14½-point chalk. Kawhi Leonard posted his 23rd double-double of the campaign with a team-best 21 points along with 10 boards. Billy White also enjoyed twin perks on the stat sheet with 12 points and 13 rebounds.

Fisher's crew let the Bears hang around for the first 25 minutes or so of the game, thanks in large part to Devon Beitzel's game-high 25. James Rahon helped the Aztecs kick it in gear with nine of his 12 points in the final 13 minutes.

The 'under' 130 cashed easily, the fourth low-side winner in SDSU's last five games.

Temple (26-7 SU, 17-15-1 ATS) had to battle back from an early nine-point deficit to nip Penn State on Juan Fernandez's late jumper, 66-64. Fernandez scored the Owls' final four points on his way to a season-high 23, teammate Ramone Moore matching that point tally for Temple who won the game on 13-of-15 shooting from the line while Penn State converted 4-of-6 free throws.

Early backers of the Owls got in on a cover laying 1½ points before the line closed at two for an official 'push.' It was a relatively easy win for 'over' 118½-point bettors, the fourth time in the last five Owls games to jump the total.

The win stopped an 11-game NCAA Tournament losing skid for Temple head coach Fran Dunphy, a skid that started while he was running another Big 5 program at Penn.

San Diego State's victory over Northern Colorado was its very first at the dance, leaving the Aztecs 1-3 now in NCAA Tournament games under Fisher. That mark should improve to 2-3 once the horn sounds at the end of this matchup.

The key number in this one is 20, as in San Diego State winning its 20th away from home this season and picking up its 20th 'under' for totals bettors. Aztecs 65-56.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-19-2011, 12:44 PM

NCAA Tournament Odds: Wisconsin, Kansas State collide in desert

Did you really think Belmont could upset Wisconsin in the first-round of the NCAA Tournament?

That didn’t happen with the Badgers winning 72-58 on Thursday as four-point favorites with the combined 130 points going ‘over’ the 128-point total. Belmont came into the game putting up 79.7 points per contest, 13th-best in the nation.

There was a lot of anti-Wisconsin sentiment going into that matchup after the Badgers were blown out by top-ranked Ohio State, 93-65, as eight-point road ‘dogs in their final regular season game.

The Badgers followed that up with an embarrassing, 36-33, loss to Penn State as 7 ½-point favorites in their opening Big Ten Conference Tournament matchup.

But now oddsmakers believe the fourth-seeded Badgers are back on track installing Wisconsin as a 2 ½-point favorite against fifth-seeded Kansas State in a second-round Southeast Regional game in Tucson, Ariz., Saturday at 5:40 p.m. PT on TNT. The ‘over/under’ is 127.

This is the 13th straight year Wisconsin has made the NCAA Tournament, the last 10 under Bo Ryan. The Badgers, however, are 2-9 ATS the past 11 times they’ve been favored on a neutral court.

Guard Jordan Taylor and 6-foot-10 forward Jon Leuer are outstanding players for Wisconsin. Taylor averages 18.1 points per game and led the nation with a 4.2 assist-to-turnover ratio.

The Badgers, though, are in trouble if they’re not connecting from three-point range. They missed 19 of 21 from beyond the arc against Penn State, but connected on 12 of 22 versus Belmont.

Taylor made five-of-nine 3-pointers against Belmont in scoring 21 points. Leuer scored a game-high 22 points.

Wisconsin is among the worst at defending the 3-pointer ranking 315th. The 24-8 Badgers are very strong in other areas, though.

Wisconsin is the best foul shooting team in the country making 82 percent of its free throws. The Badgers also rank No. 1 in assists-to-turnover ratio committing less than eight turnovers per game and rates third in the country in defense giving up only 58.3 points a game.

The ‘under’ has cashed in nine of Wisconsin’s past 11 non-conference games. The Badgers have also gone ‘under’ 70 percent of the time during their past 65 games following a pointspread cover.

Kansas State entered the tournament winning eight of its last 10. But the Wildcats, 23-10, also lost in their conference tournament opener. Colorado defeated Kansas State in a first-round Big 12 Conference Tournament game, 87-75. The Wildcats were two-point favorites with the combined 162 points going ‘over’ the 147 ½-point total.

It has been an up-and-down season for the Wildcats. They were 12-3 entering their Big 12 slate. The Wildcats then dropped five of their first seven league games before getting hot, including upsetting then No. 1 Kansas, 84-68, as six-point home ‘dogs. Jacob Pullen scored a career-high 38 points.

Starting with that huge emotional beating of Kansas, the Wildcats have won seven of eight, going 6-2 ATS.

Pullen, a senior guard, leads the Wildcats in scoring at 19.6 points a game and also is No. 1 on the team in assists and steals.

Battling a flu bug, Pullen scored a game-high 22 points and dished off five assists in Kansas State’s, 73-68, opening NCAA Tournament victory this past Thursday against 12th-seeded Utah State. The Wildcats were two-point favorites with the combined 141 points going ‘over’ the 128 ½-point total.

Pullen lacked energy against Utah State despite his fine statistics, Kansas State coach Frank Martin said.

Pullen, whose physical condition obviously is a big key, played against the Badgers in the 2008 NCAA Tournament in Omaha, Neb. Wisconsin defeated Kansas State, 72-55, as 4 ½-point favorites.

Pullen, a freshman at the time, was held to four points in 22 minutes on two-of-seven shooting from the floor.

Kansas State is 3-7 ATS the last 10 times it has been an underdog. The Wildcats are 4-9 ATS following a straight-up victory.

The ‘over’ has cashed in four of Kansas State’s last five games. The Badgers also have gone ‘over’ in four of their past five matchups.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-19-2011, 12:45 PM

NCAA Tournament Odds: Butler meets top seed Pitt

Eighth-seed Butler will try and carry the momentum from Thursday's last-second win in Thursday's opening round into Saturday's Southeast Region matchup against the top-seeded Pittsburgh Panthers. The Bulldogs are eight-point underdogs in the 4:10 p.m. (PT) tip from Washington DC's Verizon Center and the game will be broadcast nationally on TBS.

Butler did not come into this year’s NCAA Tournament with the same credentials of last year’s team that finished two points shy of winning a national title, but it served notice in a win over Old Dominion that it has every intention of trying to make deep run this time around as well. The Bulldogs needed a tip-in by senior forward Matt Howard at the buzzer to come away with a 60-58 win as a one-point underdog in a game that featured 21 lead changes.

Howard’s game-winning shot was part of a 15-point scoring effort that also included five rebounds. He led Butler this season with 16.7 points and 7.8 rebounds a game and remains its biggest threat underneath.

Junior guard Shelvin Mack also scored 15 points and dished out a game-high five assists in the winning effort. He is the team’s second leading scorer with 15.2 points a game and is averaging a team-high 3.6 assists a game.

Butler is shooting 44.6 percent from the field and 36.1 percent from three-point range. It is averaging 73 points and 35 rebounds a game. It shot 40.7 percent and pulled down 27 rebounds in the win over the Monarchs.

Pittsburgh won the Big East regular season title but made an early exit from the conference tournament with a 76-74 loss to Connecticut in the quarterfinals as a 5 ½-point favorite. The hangover from that loss carried itself into the Panthers’ game against North Carolina-Asheville on Thursday as they only led by five points at the half. Pitt then found another gear in the second half, cruising to a 74-51 win as an 18 ½-point favorite.

Junior guard Ashton Gibbs led the charge by scoring 20 of his game-high 26 points in the second half to help put the game away. Gibbs has been the go-to guy all year long for Pitt, averaging a team-high 16.7 points a game. Senior guard Brad Wanamaker, the team’s second leading scorer with an average of 12 points a game, was held to just six points by NC-Asheville Bulldogs, but should have a much bigger impact in Saturday’s game against these Bulldogs.

Pittsburgh is averaging 74 points a game and is ranked fourth in the nation in rebounds with 40 a game. Butler did a great job under the boards against ODU, which is another solid rebounding team but it will have its hands full trying to win this battle against a very physical Panthers’ team.

Butler is 3-1 against the spread in its last four games and is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall. The total has stayed ‘under’ in six of its last seven games.

Pittsburgh is 3-2 ATS in its last five games on the road and is 4-2 ATS in its last six games overall. The total has stayed ‘under’ in eight of its last nine game overall.

Both these teams are averaging well over 70 points a game but Bookmaker.com has set the ‘over/under’ at 128 which still begs a play on the ‘under’ in what should be a low-scoring defensive battle. Butler is also a solid pick at plus eight as it will give Pitt all it can handle in this game.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-19-2011, 12:46 PM

NCAA Tournament Odds: All Big East battle in DC

The Connecticut Huskies beat the Bearcats Feb. 27 in Cincinnati, 67-59.
Two teams that know each other well meet on Saturday in the NCAA Tournament as 6th-seeded Cincinnati takes on 3rd-seeded Connecticut. The Huskies have been rolling lately thanks to point guard Kemba Walker who is averaging 25.5 points in his last eight games. The Huskies routed Bucknell on Thursday in the first round while Cincinnati easily handled Missouri.

Check out the current line for this game at *** Global.com.

Connecticut had no fatigue issues at all on Thursday as they completely destroyed Bucknell, 81-52. Walker led the way but everyone got involved as the Huskies controlled the game from the opening tip.

Walker had 18 points, 12 assists and eight rebounds to just miss a triple-double. Jeremy Lamb and Roscoe Smith combined to score 33 points while Alex Oriakhi had 12 rebounds. It will be interesting to see if the fatigue starts to catch up to Connecticut in this game on Saturday.

Cincinnati totally shut down Missouri on Thursday in a 78-63 win. The Bearcats were great defensively as they slowed down the potent Tiger offense.

Forward Yancy Gates had 18 points and 11 rebounds for his seventh double-double of the college basketball betting season. Guards Cashmere Wright and Dion Dixon combined for 27 points in the win.

The Huskies beat Cincinnati 67-59 last month and they are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between the two teams. Here are more betting stats for Saturday’s games:

•The Bearcats are 6-1 ATS in their last seven neutral site games.
•Cincinnati is 6-2 ATS in its last eight versus the Big East.
•The Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games as a favorite.
•UConn is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 neutral site games.
This could be another low-scoring matchup on Saturday between these two Big East teams. They combined for just 126 points in their meeting last month.

The 'over' is 8-1 in the Bearcats' last nine NCAA Tournament games. The 'under' is 13-3 in the Bearcats' last 16 games as an underdog and 9-4 in their last 13 neutral site games.

The 'over' is 8-2 in the Huskies' last 10 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite and 23-9 in their last 32 neutral site games.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-19-2011, 12:47 PM

NHL Betting: Canucks steaming into playoffs

Vancouver is a sparkling 37-2-6 when scoring the first goal of a game.
Because there is an average of just 5.7 goals per game scored during the average NHL contest this season, handicappers would be wise to study which teams do well when scoring first and which are proficient when leading after two periods.

The Vancouver Canucks not only enter weekend action with an NHL-best 103 points, they also lead the league by scoring the game’s first goal 45 times. More importantly, they have accumulated a sparkling 37-2-6 record when accomplishing that feat.

Vancouver is also adroit at holding the lead going into the final stanza, evidenced by its unblemished 15-0-2 ledger. The Canucks are also a nifty 9-1-4 when leading after one period.

After hosting Phoenix this weekend, Alan Vigneault’s Canucks begin a four-game road trip that will take them to Detroit, Atlanta, Columbus and Nashville. In fact, six of Vancouver’s last nine regular season outings will be on enemy ice.

The Los Angeles Kings have scored the first goal 43 times this season, but they have lost 10 times in regulation and two in overtime (31-10-2) when producing that achievement. However, the Kings are a stellar 10-0-1 when entering the third period with a lead.

Los Angeles entered its weekend game against Anaheim with 85 points, two points ahead of Calgary for the eighth and final Western Conference playoff spot.

The surprising Tampa Bay Lightning were sitting in fifth place in the Eastern Conference standings prior to Saturday’s contest against Ottawa. The Senators would be wise to know that Tampa has notched the game’s first marker 42 times and is 27-9-6 as a result.

Bettors thinking about placing a few dollars on the Lightning this weekend were happy to know that center Vincent LeCavalier will not be suspended for slashing Montreal’s P.K. Subban in Thursday’s game. LeCavalier has 18 goals and 22 assists in 54 games.

The Toronto Maple Leafs own the distinction of scoring the first goal the fewest times (26) in the league. The Leafs are 16-4-6 when jumping out to a lead and 10-0-3 when carrying that lead into the third period.

The Leafs trail the eighth-place Buffalo Sabres by four points heading into Saturday’s home game against the Boston Bruins. Toronto might be without defenseman Michael Komisarek (back), who is listed as “questionable” on the Don Best Sports injury report.

Scoring first on the road is a good recipe for success, and the Minnesota Wild and Detroit Red Wings lead the way in that category.

Minnesota is 16-0-2 in the 18 games when it has scored the first goal on enemy ice, while the Red Wings are 15-0-3. Detroit has turned its fast start into the league’s best road record at 24-9-2-2.

The Wild won’t have to worry about road games this weekend, as they host the Blue Jackets on Saturday and the Canadiens on Sunday. The Wings travel to Nashville for a Saturday meeting against the Predators.

Detroit should be aware that the Predators are the only team in the league with a perfect home record (11-0-5) when scoring the game’s first goal. Nashville is also 12-0-3 when entering the final period with a lead.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-19-2011, 12:48 PM

NBA Betting: Celtics face Hornets, negative trends

The Boston Celtics have a couple of big trends going against them as they travel to the New Orleans Hornets on Saturday night. The C’s have struggled on the road lately and in the second half of back-to-back situations all year.

The Celtics (48-18 straight-up, 31-33-2 against the spread) are trying to adapt on the fly with a changing roster due to a big trade, injuries and free agent pickups.

Boston is a decent 7-4 SU, but only 4-7 ATS since the deadline deal than sent Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson to Oklahoma City for Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic.

That was a strange move for GM Danny Ainge as Perkins was a popular player and a very good post defender, always needed in the playoffs. The situation is made worse by centers Shaquille and Jermaine O’Neal both out with injuries. Shaq traveled with the team for this three-game trip, but likely won’t play. Krstic is the only real center playing now.

There is more injury news with struggling point guard Rajon Rondo (ankle) playing far less than 100 percent. Backups Glen Davis and Delonte West recently returned, but the second unit needs time to play together with Green a new addition along with free agents like Troy Murphy and Carlos Arroyo.

Coach Doc Rivers would normally be tuning up for the playoffs, instead of just getting guys acquainted. Plus, Boston needs to win as it trails Chicago by a half-game for top spot in the Eastern Conference. Both teams want homecourt advantage.

The Celtics have won their last two games at home over Indiana (92-80) and Milwaukee (87-56), covering the spread as 10 ½ and eight-point favorites respectively.

The Indiana game was on Wednesday and the 172 combined points scored went way ‘under’ the 195-point total. The ‘under’ is 4-0 in Boston’s last four games with the offense stagnating at 86 PPG, 11 points lower than its season average.

Boston lost its last two road contests at New Jersey (88-79) and Philadelphia (89-86) and is 0-3 ATS in its last three away games.

Boston traveled to Houston for a Friday night contest. That result is still pending with the Celtics around a one-point favorite. The aging Celtics with Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen are miserable in the second half of back-to-backs this year (3-11 ATS).

The Hornets (40-30 SU, 34-34-2 ATS) look solid for the playoffs in seventh place in the Western Conference, but can’t afford to take their foot off the gas.

New Orleans (24-10 SU at home) is finishing up a five-game homestand that’s started 3-1 SU and 2-1-1 ATS. The games were against Dallas (93-92 win), Sacramento (115-103 win), Denver (114-103 loss) and Phoenix on Wednesday (100-95 win).

Point guard Chris Paul missed the Dallas game with a concussion, but has averaged a phenomenal 28.7 PPG the last three. His scoring has been down this year at 16.4 PPG.

The Hornets are 27th in the league in scoring (94.8 PPG), so it’s good to see them hit triple-digits the last three. Their defense has been stingy all year (93 PPG, ranked fourth), but is allowing 104 PPG the last three.

Coach Monty Williams has relied heavily on the starting lineup with all five guys in double-digits. Power forward David West leads at 18.5 PPG. The bench has been weak, but has improved lately with newly acquired big man Carl Landry.

These teams met in Boston back on New Year’s Eve, with the Hornets winning 83-81 as 4 ½-point ‘dogs. Both Rondo and Garnett were out. New Orleans beat the Celtics at home last year (93-85), but lost to them there in 2008 (89-77).

The ’under’ is 5-0 in the last five meetings between the teams.

New Orleans is not reporting any significant injuries.

Tip-off will be 5 p.m. (PT) from New Orleans Arena. Boston will finish its trip at the Knicks on Monday, while New Orleans begins a three-game jaunt in Utah on Thursday.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-19-2011, 12:51 PM

Saturday Trends to Watch

March 19, 2011

West Virginia vs. Kentucky (NCAA at Tampa)...Bob Huggins is only 3-4 this season in an underdog role. Both trending 'under' lately, WVU 5-1 its last 6, Kentucky 11-4 its last 15.

UCLA vs. Florida (NCAA at Tampa)...The Bruins have offered good spread value since early February, covering 9 of their last 12, but Florida has dropped just one of its last eight spread decisions (6-1-1). Although 'over' last 2, Bruins are still 'under' 15-8 their last 23 this season, which conflicts with Florida's 'over' 15-5-1 its last 21 outings. Note that Billy Donovan won his first NCAA tourney game since the 2007 title clash vs. Ohio State on Thursday against UCSB. What next for the Gators, UC Irvine and UC Riverside?

Butler vs. Pittsburgh (NCAA at Washington, D.C.)...Butler has won 10 in a row SU and is also 'under' 6-1 its last 7 games. The Bulldogs are also 5-0-1 their last six as an underdog this season. The Panthers were one of many Big East teams that were trending 'under' late in the season (8-1 the last nine in Pitt's case).

Cincinnati at UConn (NCAA at Washington, D.C.)...The teams only met once this season, with UConn winning outright as a 3 ½-point dog at Cincy on Feb. 27. Both enter this one hot, the Huskies winning and covering six straight since their wild run through the Big East Tourney last week, with the Bearcats a solid 7-2 vs. the line their last nine on the board.

Morehead State vs. Richmond (NCAA at Denver)...Note that OVC rep Morehead is 6-2 as an underdog this season. But Richmond is red hot, with the Spiders winning and covering 8 in a row, and also 'under' 7-0-1 those last eight games.

Gonzaga vs. BYU (NCAA at Denver)...Note that BYU is just 2-4 vs. the line since star frontliner Brandon Davies was suspended for breaking the school honor code. Meanwhile, the Zags have won 10 in a row SU and are 7-2 vs. the spread their last nine on the board.

Temple vs. San Diego State (NCAA at Tucson)...Surprisingly, Fran Dunphy's Owls are only 6-12 vs. the line their last 18 on the board this season. Meanwhile, the Aztecs have won their last 6 SU and have covered five of those. SDSU is also 'under' 17-7 its last 24 this season.

Kansas State vs. Wisconsin (NCAA at Tucson)...K-State has won 7 of its last 8 SU and covered 6 of those, while the Cats are also 'over' in 6 of their last 8. The Badgers are also a surprising 7-2 'over' in their last nine outings.

Northwestern at Boston College (NIT)...BC just 3-6 as Chestnut Hill chalk this season. Conflicting recent totals trends, with Eagles 'over' 4-1 last 5 and NU 'under' 5-2 last 7.

College of Charleston at Cleveland State (NIT)...The host Vikings have been in a pointspread fade, dropping 9 of their last 11 vs. the number.

Buffalo at Western Michigan (CIT)...Buffalo won and covered at Kalamazoo in only meeting this season. That first meeting went 'over' as have 12 of WMU's last 16 games.

Jacksonville at SMU (CIT)...SMU is 10-3-1 its last 14 vs. the line and has also gone 'under' in last 5 and 7 of last 9 games. Meanwhile, Artis Gilmore's alma mater beat both Auburn and Florida in pre-league play (are the Dolphins the unofficial SEC champs?).

San Francisco at Hawaii (CIT)...The Dons have been a pointspread overachiever since Christmastime, covering 15 of their last 21 on the board. Also note Hawaii's 'overs' in 7 straight and 9 of the Warriors' last 10 games.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-19-2011, 12:54 PM

Saturday's Tucson Tips

March 18, 2011

With the tournament field cut to 32 following Friday's action, now we start getting towards the better matchups in the NCAA Tournament. The Tucson pod tips things off in the early evening on the East Coast with a pair of contests involving all four teams with at least 22 victories. We'll start with a team that needed a shot in the final seconds to advance to the third round against second-seeded San Diego State.

(2) San Diego State vs. (7) Temple - 6:10 PM EST

The bottom part of the West regional starts things off at the McKale Center with a pair of upstart clubs trying to making the jump to the Sweet 16. San Diego State won its first NCAA tournament game since 1968 in Thursday's 68-50 trouncing of 15-seed Northern Colorado as 14 ½-point favorites. The Aztecs look for another victory against a Temple squad that beat cross-state rival Penn State 66-64 on a game-winning basket by Juan Fernandez.

San Diego State has won 13 of 14 following the victory over Northern Colorado, while cashing in five of the last six games. The Aztecs are a strong play when laying single-digits by compiling a 9-2 ATS mark this season, including six of those covers away from Southern California. Steve Fisher's defense is performing at a high level by limiting four of the last five opponents to 54 points or less, resulting in four 'unders.'

The Owls are on fire as well with wins in 13 of the previous 15 contests with one of those setbacks coming at Duke. Temple was listed as an underdog just seven times this season, while putting together a pedestrian 3-4 ATS mark. However, Fran Dunphy's team pulled off 'dog victories over Maryland and Georgetown in non-conference play. Temple went 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS against tournament teams in the regular season, including a neutral-site triumph as a favorite over Georgia.

It's been a while since the Owls have reached the Sweet 16, as Temple tries to escape the first weekend since 2001. Both the Atlantic 10 and the Mountain West start the round of 32 with two teams each remaining, as Richmond and BYU are also alive to represent these conferences.

The Aztecs are listed as six-point favorites, while the total is set at 125 and the game can be seen on TNT. The winner will move on to Anaheim for the Sweet 16 to battle the winner of Cincinnati and Connecticut on Thursday night.

(4) Wisconsin vs. (5) Kansas State - 8:40 PM EST

The night concludes with a fantastic matchup between the Big 10 and Big 12 as the Badgers take on the Wildcats. Wisconsin took care of Belmont on Thursday, 72-58 to cash easily as four-point favorites. Meanwhile, K-State held off a feisty Utah State squad, 73-68 as two-point 'chalk' to advance to the second round (now third round) for the third time in four seasons.

The Badgers eliminated the Wildcats in the 2008 NCAA Tournament in the only meeting ever between the two schools, 72-55. Wisconsin shot 52% from the floor, while holding superstar Michael Beasley to 23 points as the Badgers covered as 4 ½-point favorites. Bo Ryan's team lasted only one more round in that tourney by falling to Stephen Curry's Davidson Wildcats in the Sweet 16 as five-point 'chalk,' 73-56.

Wisconsin snapped a two-game skid with the blowout win over Belmont, while improving to 3-5 ATS the last eight games. The Badgers have profited nicely as a single-digit favorite this season with a 10-5 ATS ledger, as five of those covers came away from Madison.

Kansas State bounced back from a loss in the Big 12 tournament to Colorado with the victory over Utah State as Jacob Pullen led the way with 22 points. The Wildcats find themselves in the underdog role as Frank Martin's club is 3-5 ATS when getting points. The only positive is K-State has won outright as 'dogs in each of the previous three opportunities against Kansas, Nebraska, and Texas, including the last two on the highway.

The Badgers are listed as 2 ½-point favorites, while the total is set at 126 as the game can be viewed on TNT. The winner of this game moves forward in the Southeast Region against the team that comes out of the Pittsburgh/Butler contest on Thursday.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-19-2011, 12:56 PM

Saturday's D.C. Tips

March 18, 2011

The second round of the NCAA tournament opened up with some great buzzer-beaters. It finished up with games that could help put you to sleep. As far as gamblers are concerned, the favorites went 11-5 SU and 8-8 ATS to keep us on our toes for the rest of the weekend. Totals players saw the ‘under’ go 7-6-3.

Saturday’s third round action at the Verizon Center in Washington, D.C. is loaded up with three teams from the Big East.

It all starts up at 7:10 p.m. EDT on TBS with Butler (25-9 straight up, 15-14-2 against the spread) facing off with the top-seeded Panthers in the Southeast Region. Most sportsbooks have posted Pittsburgh (28-5 SU, 15-13 ATS) as a 7 ½-point favorite with a total of 128 ½. The Bulldogs can be taken for the win at plus-280 (risk $100 to win $280).

The Bulldogs were an intriguiging play for their second round matchup with Old Dominion as you had to wonder how they’d handle being back in the big dance. Coming off of a defeat in the national title game can leave quite a hangover. That wasn’t the case on Thursday afternoon as Butler dropped the Monarchs 60-58 as a 1 ½-point underdog.

Matt Howard has been the best player for Butler this season, and yesterday was no different. Howard pushed through 15 points and five boards against ODU, including the winning shot at the buzzer to advance. Shelvin Mack also threw in 15 points with five assists in the winning effort.

The Panthers had plenty to handle with UNC-Asheville in their tournament opener on Thursday afternoon, but pulled away in the second half for a 74-51 win as 18-point favorites. Ashton Gibbs had a field day on the ‘Dogs in this one, scoring 26 points. Pitt also held an incredible 44-24 rebounding advantage against UNC-Asheville.

Butler is an underdog for the second time in as many games for this tourney and seventh time for the season. They are now 4-3 SU and 5-1-1 ATS with the ‘over’ going 5-2 in those tests.

Pittsburgh has been impressive as a single-digit “chalk” this season by going 11-3 SU. They’re just so-so for our purposes with a 7-7 ATS record. The ‘over’ is 9-5 in that stretch.

Either Wisconsin or Kansas State will await one of these teams in the Sweet Sixteen in New Orleans next week.

The nightcap guarantees us at least one team from the Big East team will make the regionals as the Bearcats take on Connecticut (27-9 SU, 19-11 ATS) at 9:40 p.m. EDT on TBS. The Huskies have been tabbed as three-point favorites with a total of 129 ½ on Friday afternoon. Cincy is listed at plus-135 (risk $100 to win $135) to pick up the win.

There were more than a few people expecting the Huskies to have a let down in their opener against Bucknell. How could you not expect that after winning five games in five days? But UConn held its ground and then some in a 81-52 shellacking of the Bison as a 10 ½-point favorite on Thursday night. Kemba Walker nearly had a triple-double with 18 points, 12 assists and eight rebounds. Super freshman Jeremy Lamb took Bucknell for 16 points and a pair of boards.

Cincinnati (26-8 SU, 15-13 ATS) got the benefit of playing a Missouri team that can’t play a lick of defense in Thursday’s D.C. finale. That helped the Bearcats roll on with a 78-63 win over the Tigers as one-point favorites. Yancy Gates drove Cincy to the win with his 18 points and 11 rebounds against Mizzou. Meanwhile, Dion Dixon grabbed six boards off the glass to go along with his 16 points.

The selection committee tries its best to keep teams from the same conference from meeting so soon in the tournament. That just wasn’t going to happen after they put 11 teams in from the Big East.

These two teams met back on Feb. 27, where the Huskies pulled out a 67-59 win over Cincinnati as 3 ½-point road pups. The Bearcats actually held tough through the first half of the game, trailing 30-27. But Walker scored 11 of his 16 points in the second half to put the match out of reach. Gate scored 14 points with eight rebounds in a losing effort for Cincinnati.

The Huskies are 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in the last four head-to-head meetings.

Cincy has only been an underdog eight times this season, and they’ve not fared well in this role. The Bearcats are 3-5 SU and ATS when listed as ‘dogs this year. The ‘under’ has posted a quality 6-2 mark in those battles for totals players.

UConn has gone 8-5 SU and 6-7 ATS when posted as a single-digit favorite this season. The totals sat still at 6-6-1 for that time as well.

The winner of this game will take on either Temple or San Diego State at the Honda Center in Anaheim for the West Region semifinals.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-19-2011, 01:01 PM

Saturday's Tampa Tips

March 19, 2011

The second round of the 2011 NCAA Tournament will begin Saturday afternoon in Tampa at 12:15 p.m. Eastern when Kentucky (26-8 straight up, 13-15-1 against the spread) takes on West Virginia at the St. Pete Times Forum. This is a rematch for the Wildcats, who lost to the Mountaineers in the Elite Eight last season.

Most betting shops have installed UK as a 3 ½-point favorite with a total of 132. Gamblers can back West Va. (21-11 SU, 13-16 ATS) on the money line for a plus-145 return (risk $100 to win $145).

Brandon Knight waited until the 40th minute and UK’s final possession to get his first bucket in Friday’s way-too-close-for-comfort win over a game Princeton squad. Knight got into the lane off the dribble to his right and banked home a runner to give the ‘Cats a 59-57 win over the Tigers, who easily took the cash as 13-point underdogs. The 116 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 132-point total.

Darius Miller scored a game-high 17 points for the winners, while Josh Harrelson came up big with 15 points, 10 rebounds and four steals. Terrence Jones wasn’t especially productive but he did get into double figures with 10 points, and he hit a huge 3-pointer at crunch time.

WVU fell behind Clemson early in their first-round showdown early Thursday afternoon. However, Bob Huggins’ bunch made a late first-half run that was capped by a long 3-ball from Kevin Jones to knot the game at 40-40 at intermission.

It was all Mountaineers early in the second half, too, as the Tigers appeared to tire due to their quick turnaround after beating UAB late Tuesday night. WVU ran its lead to double digits, although Clemson did pull back within three ((74-71) in the final two minutes. Nevertheless, the ‘Neers held on for an 84-76 victory as 2 ½-point favorites.

Darryl ‘Truck’ Bryant scored a team-high 19 points, while Jones finished with 17 points and nine rebounds. Joe Mazzulla, who was the catalyst in last year’s win over UK when he scored a career-best 17 points, had 12 points and seven assists against Clemson.

WVU has been an underdog seven times this season, compiling a 3-4 spread record. Meanwhile, Kentucky has posted a 6-10-1 ATS mark in 17 games as a single-digit ‘chalk.’

For the third time in the last six years, Florida (27-7 SU, 15-14-1 ATS) and UCLA will square off in the NCAA Tournament. In 2006, the Gators ran away from the Bruins for a 73-57 win as one-point favorites in the national-title game.

Then in 2007, these programs met at the Ga. Dome in the national semifinals. Once again, it was all UF in a 76-66 triumph that wasn’t near as close as the final score indicated. The Gators took the cash as three-point favorites.

Billy Donovan’s squad has won 11 of its last 13 games with the only losses coming at Kentucky and to the ‘Cats in the finals of the SEC Tournament. The Gators jumped all over UC-Santa Barbara early and often in Friday night’s first-round game. They took an early double-digit lead and never looked back, winning by a 79-51 count as 12 ½-point favorites.

All five Florida starters shared the ball, as evidenced by each taking between five and nine shots. Junior point guard Erving Walker led a balanced attack with 18 points and six assists. Kenny Boynton added 13 points, making 6-of-9 shots from the field. Chandler Parsons, the SEC Player of the Year, tallied 10 points, 10 assists and seven rebounds.

UCLA led by as many as 23 points but had to hold off a furious rally from Michigan St. to collect a 78-76 win as a 1 ½-point underdog. Tyler Honeycutt scored 16 points, grabbed six rebounds, dished out five assists, blocked three shots and picked up a pair of steals. Malcolm Lee also had 16 points, while Reeves Nelson had a double-double with 12 points and 10 boards.

Ben Howland’s team has been an underdog eight times, going 4-4 ATS. Meanwhile, UF has gone 6-7 versus the number in 13 games as a single-digit favorite.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Michigan owns an incredible 13-1 spread record in its last 14 games after blasting Tennessee 74-45 as a one-point underdog Friday. The Wolverines will now face Duke in the second round.

--Florida State won its first NCAA Tournament game since 1998 when it beat Texas A&M 57-50 Friday in a pick ‘em affair. The last NCAA win came against a TCU team coached by Billy Tubbs. That victory came in the first year of Steve Robinson’s disastrous tenure in Tallahassee, although we should point out that he was coaching Pat Kennedy’s players that year.

--Xavier point guard Tu Holloway sure did pick an inopportune time to play the worst game of his collegiate career Friday night. Holloway was horrible all night, shooting an abysmal 1-of-8 from the field while committing as many turnovers (five) as he had points (five). Give credit to Marquette, which won a 66-55 decision in a pick ‘em affair. Buzz Williams had a masterful gameplan that his kids executed to perfection. Williams is a throwback and the hardest working man in the coaching profession. (Translation: I'm pissed the Musketeers, who I had going to the Elite Eight, got sent home early but I'm happy for Williams.)

--How telling is it that Craig Sager’s pink outfit at Friday’s game in Tulsa didn’t even surprise me in the least? SERIOUSLY, ‘Sages,’ get a life!

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