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NCAA Tournament Odds: Washington and Georgia in dogfight

The Charlotte pod includes a great SEC, Pac-10 battle
between the Huskies and Bulldogs.
As winners of the Pac-10 Conference Tournament, the Washington Huskies knew they were going to the NCAA Tournament.

Unfortunately for the Huskies, they were chosen for the East Regional in Charlotte, N.C.

That’s a long travel distance for Washington, which won three games in three days during this past Thursday-Saturday to capture the Pac-10 tournament. The seventh-seeded Huskies do catch one break. They play Friday (6:45 p.m. PT) giving them an extra day of rest. This should really come in handy for star guard Isaiah Thomas.

Thomas, who leads Washington in points at 16.8 per game and in assists at six per contest, sat out only two of the 125 minutes the Huskies played in the Pac-10 tournament.

The Huskies draw 10th-seeded Georgia, a 21-11 bubble team that received an at-large bid despite losing 65-59 in overtime to Alabama in the quarterfinals of the Southeastern Conference Tournament this past Friday. Georgia blew a 14-point second-half lead in failing to cover as 1 ½-point favorites.

The Bulldogs are just 200 miles from Charlotte. So a pro-Georgia crowd can be expected.

Washington is favored by 5 ½ points with the ‘over/under’ at 141.

Trey Thompkins, a 6-foot-10 junior forward, leads the Bulldogs in scoring at 16.1 points per game and in rebounding at 7.5 boards per contest. He also paces the Bulldogs in blocked shots averaging 1.7 a game. Thompkins is one of only nine Bulldogs to record 1,200 points and pull down 600 rebounds in a career. He was Georgia’s lone representative on the SEC All-Conference first team.

Sparked by Thompkins, the Bulldogs led the SEC in rebounding and held opponents to 39.6 percent shooting from the floor. They ranked fourth in the conference in scoring defense holding foes to 64.3 points a game. The Bulldogs also led the SEC in assists per game at 15.2 with guards Gerald Robinson and Dustin Ware each reaching 100 for the season.

No team managed to make better than 50 percent of their shots against Georgia this season. It’s just the second time in 50 years the Bulldogs finished a year holding foes to below 40 percent shooting.

The Bulldogs also showed an ability to win away from Athens winning seven road contests, more than the previous three seasons combined. They are 6-2 ATS the past eight times they’ve been underdogs. However, Georgia is 1-7 ATS in its last eight non-conference matchups.

Washington is making its sixth NCAA Tournament appearance in nine seasons under Lorenzo Romar. The Huskies have advanced to the Sweet 16 in three of their last five tournament appearances. Washington reached the final 16 last year as a No. 11 seed falling to West Virginia, 69-56, as a 4 ½-point ‘dog.

The 23-10 Huskies finished third in the Pac-10 with an 11-7 conference mark. They captured the Pac-10 Conference Tournament by edging Washington, 89-87, as 5 ½-point ‘chalk,’ beating Oregon, 69-51, as eight-point favorites and nipping conference regular-season champion Arizona in the title game, 77-75 in overtime, as three-point favorites behind 28 points and seven assists from Thomas.

The Huskies didn’t have guard Venoy Overton during the Pac-10 Tournament. Overton, who averages six points a game and plays around 21 minutes, was sitting out due to a disciplinary suspension. He’s eligible to play in the NCAA Tournament.

Washington is a big-scoring team averaging 83.5 points per game, third-best in the country. The Huskies rank 25th in field goal percentage making 47.1 percent of their shots from the floor.

The winner of this matchup advances to the second round to play the winner of the North Carolina-Long Island University game.

The ‘under’ has cashed in five of Washington’s last six games. The ‘under’ also has cashed in four of Georgia’s last five games

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NCAA Tournament Odds: Arizona takes on Memphis

Josh Pastner leads Memphis against his old team from
the Pac-10, the Arizona Wildcats.
The Pac-10 Arizona Wildcats return from a one-year hiatus in the NCAA tournament to face Conference USA’s Memphis Tigers on Friday.

Bookmaker.com has Arizona as 5 ½-point favorites with a total of 139 ½-points. CBS will have this West Region battle at 11:45 a.m. (PT) from Tulsa, Oklahoma.

This is one of the always mouth-watering No. 5 vs. No. 12 matchups. Since 1985, No. 12 seeds are 35-69 SU (33.7 percent) against No. 5 seeds. That’s better than No. 11 teams have done against the No. 6 (33-71 SU).

Lower seed Memphis hopes that trend continues. Last year. No. 12 seeds went just 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS against the No. 5.

The Wildcats (27-7 SU, 17-14-1 ATS) had their string of 25 straight NCAA tournament appearances snapped last year. They returned this year as an at-large bid after winning the Pac-10 regular season (14-4 SU) in a slight surprise.

The main reason for the success was undoubtedly Derrick Williams. The 6-foot-8 sophomore forward led the team in scoring (19.1 PPG), rebounding (8.1), blocks (.7) and probably would have driven the team bus if asked. He won Pac-10 Player of the Year for his efforts.

Coach Sean Miller also won conference Coach of the Year in just his second year since coming from Xavier. He has the program headed in the right direction with a top-10 recruiting class for next year. That will be needed with Williams likely headed to the NBA as a lottery pick.

Miller is only worried about Memphis for now. His team had won four straight games, including two in the Pac-10 Tournament, before losing to Washington (77-75 in OT) in the final. Isaiah Thomas hit the game-winning jumper at the buzzer.

Arizona is scoring 76.5 PPG on the season (ranked 25th in the country), but no one besides Williams is in double-digits. Swingman Kevin Parrom (7.9 PPG) has been the most consistent second scorer of late at 10.4 PPG over the last five games.

Arizona is a young team with guard Kyle Fogg and forward Jamelle Horne the only regulars from the Sweet Sixteen team of two years ago. Fogg (8.3 PPG) was limited during the Pac-10 tourney with a strained quad, but should be much improved and back in the starting lineup.

Memphis (25-9 SU, 12-17-2 ATS) comes into this game on a roll, blowing through the Conference USA Tournament at 3-0 SU and ATS.

The championship game was a 67-66 upset over UTEP as five point ‘dogs, played in the Miners’ stadium. That gave the ‘bubble’ Tigers the automatic bid after finishing fourth in the regular season at 10-6 SU (6-8-2 ATS).

The 133 combined points scored against UTEP went ‘over’ the 130-point total. The ‘under’ was 12-0 in Memphis’ prior 12 games, scoring 62.7 PPG and allowing 62.8 PPG for an average total of 125 ½-points.

Memphis has learned to win close contests, 13-1 SU in games decided by five points or less.

Memphis is also very young with its three leading scorers all freshmen. Guard Will Barton (12.5 PPG) leads overall, but it was ‘diaper dandy’ point Joe Jackson (9.9 PPG) who shined in the conference tourney at 18.7 PPG off the bench.

Power forward Tarik Black (9.2 PPG) is a third frosh who will be needed to battle Williams, with neither team having much size. Black needs to stay out of foul trouble as Williams led the nation in free throw attempts (289).

Coach Josh Pastner is in his second year after taking over for John Calipari. Memphis made the NIT last season after four straight March Madness appearances. Pastner would love to get a win over Arizona, the team he played for and was an assistant under Lute Olson.

Neither team is reporting any significant injuries.

These teams last met in 2006 and 2007, with each winning and ‘covering’ at home.

The victor will face the winner of fourth-seed Texas (minus 10) and 13th seed Oakland.

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NCAA Tournament Odds: Villanova, George Mason Round 1

George Mason and Villanova square off in Cleveland, the
winner drawing Ohio State on Sunday.
The George Mason Patriots and Villanova Wildcats are in the 8/9 game in the East Region. These two will fight it out in NCAA Tournament betting action on Friday afternoon at Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, OH.

The Wildcats are slight one-point favorites for Friday's battle with the total set at 135 for the 11:10 a.m. (PT) tip-off. The winner will likely take on the Ohio State Buckeyes on Sunday afternoon.

Should Villanova even be in this tournament? This is the first team that has ever come into the dance on a five-game losing streak, but things are worse than that for the 'Cats. They are only 5-10 in their last 15 games, and they haven't played a fantastic game in quite some time.

This is the second straight season that this team really faltered down the stretch. 'Nova was bounced early in the Big East Tournament last season, nearly taken out in the first round as a No. 2 seed, and then finally fell to the St. Mary's Gaels in the Round of 32.

The threesome of Corey Fisher, Corey Stokes and Maalik Wayns make up one of the best backcourts in the nation, with all three averaging at least 14.0 PPG. All of their shooting percentages are down this season though, combining to shoot roughly 42 percent from the field. The big men, Antonio Pena and Mouphtaou Yarou have underachieved as well, combining for just 18.2 PPG and 14.1 RPG.

George Mason didn't last long in the CAA Tournament this year, but as was proven by its No. 8 seed there was never a doubt about this team getting into March Madness. The Patriots didn't play much of a schedule, but they did pick up 26 wins and performed well in a solid Colonial League to win the regular season title.

This is a particularly efficient club, as the Pats are shooting 47.4 percent from the field and 39.7 percent from beyond the arc. Both numbers rank in the Top 20 in the land. On the other side of the court, George Mason is just as dangerous, keeping teams down to just 61.5 PPG.

Cameron Long is the squad's leading scorer at 15.3 PPG. Ryan Pearson is second in scoring at 14.4 PPG and the leading rebounder at 6.8 RPG. There are three other men as well that are scoring at least 6.2 PPG for this team, and Head Coach Jim Larrinaga has himself a heck of a rotation.

Of course, this is the prototypical duel between the little giants and the big boys. We know that three-point shooting is going to be key for the Patriots, as they really have to equalize their lack of talent, just like they did a few seasons ago when they made their epic trip to the Final Four.

This actually isn't the first time that these teams have played each other in recent memory. The Cats have three straight wins since 1998 against George Mason, but the Patriots covered two of the three college basketball odds in those games. The most recent game was a 69-68 escape by Villanova last season.

The Wildcats enter this one at just 1-12 ATS in its last 13 overall. George Mason s 20-6 ATS in its last 26.

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NCAA Tournament Odds: St. Peter's and Purdue collide

The tops seeds in the Chicago pod are (2) Notre Dame,
(3) Purdue, (6) Georgetown and (7) Texas A&M.
Purdue (25-7 straight up, 18-11 against the spread) earned the third seed in the Southwest Region, and squares off against 14th-seed St. Peter’s (20-13 SU, 20-7 ATS) in Friday’s matchup. The Boilermakers are one of seven Big Ten teams to reach the NCAA Tournament, while the Peacocks are the lone representative from the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference.

Purdue finished the regular season ranked 13th in the Associated Press poll, finishing second to top-ranked Ohio State in the Big Ten. The Boilermakers are playing in the NCAA Tournament for the fifth consecutive year, advancing to the regional semifinals the previous two seasons.

St. Peter’s finished fourth in the MAAC during the regular season before winning the conference tournament. The Peacocks have advanced to the NCAA Tournament just twice in their history, losing to Texas in the first round in 1991 and falling to Massachusetts in the opening round of the 1995 tournament.

Don Best shows Purdue as decided 14 ½-point ‘chalk’ over St. Peter’s, with the total set at 119 ½. TNT will provide coverage of Friday’s contest beginning at 4:20 p.m. PT from Chicago’s United Center.

Purdue enters this contest having dropped its last two games SU, and previous three ATS. The Boilermakers fell to Michigan State last Friday as a seven-point neutral-court favorite, 74-56. The combined 130 points slithered below the 130 ½-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ improve to 4-1 the past five games.

Purdue was unable to overcome a 14-point halftime deficit, 37-23, and finished the contest trailing in rebounding (39-25) and assists (13-11). The Boilermakers also struggled by shooting 37 percent (19-of-51) from the field and 19 percent (3-of-16) from behind the arc.

St. Peter’s ended the regular season with back-to-back losses before beating Loyola (Md.), Fairfield and the Iona Gaels in the MAAC Tournament. The Peacocks defeated the Gaels March 7 as a nine-point road underdog, 62-57.

The combined 119 points failed to eclipse the 130 ½-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ cash the second consecutive contest.

St. Peter’s jumped out to a six-point halftime advantage, 26-20, and finished the game by shooting a robust 46 percent (22-of-48) from the field and 47 percent (7-of-15) from 3-point land. The Peacocks were outrebounded, 33-27, but they did deliver more assists, 12-7.

Forward Jeron Belin paced the offense with 17 points before fouling out, while guard Nick Leon provided 15. Guard Wesley Jenkins had 14 and five rebounds in the victory, while forward Ryan Bacon provided eight and nine.

Purdue guard Ryne Smith (concussion) is ‘probable’ versus the Peacocks, while guard John Hart (foot) is ‘questionable.’ St. Peter’s is listing no significant injuries for this contest.

The Boilermakers and Peacocks have never played each other in men’s basketball, and the winner.will take on the victor in the Georgetown, VCU contest.

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Dallas Mavericks host Spurs for NBA betting matchup

The San Antonio Spurs have had several days to lick their wounds as they prepare for a Friday night battle at in-state rival Dallas Mavericks.

The Spurs (54-13 straight-up, 37-28-2 against the spread) are coming off their worst loss of the season, 110-80 at Miami on Monday. That was a revenge game for LeBron James and company after a San Antonio 30-point home win over Miami 10 days earlier.

Coach Gregg Popovich has done a great job this year as San Antonio has a 6.5-game lead over the Lakers and Dallas for top-spot in the West Conference. However, there are some troubling signs heading towards the playoffs.

Popovich’s bunch has allowed an average of 106 PPG the last four games and 102 PPG over the last 12. That compares unfavorably to the 97.2 PPG for the season, a respectable 12th in the NBA.

The softer defense has helped the ‘over’ go 9-3 in the Spurs last 12 games. They’ve only gone 3-9 ATS in that span (8-4 SU).

San Antonio now has a rare three days off between games, never a bad thing with starters Manu Ginobili, Tim Duncan, and Antonio McDyess ranging from 33-36 in age. The team does have one of the NBA’s most productive benches, but the starters will need to play a bigger role once the playoffs hit.

The Spurs has been very good on the road overall (23-10 SU and 21-11-1 ATS).

The Mavericks (48-20 SU, 36-30-2 ATS) are considerably more tired than the Spurs. They’re playing their third game in four nights after flying out West for two quick games at Portland (104-101 loss) and Golden State (112-106 win).

The first result was surprising as Dallas out-shot Portland 59.7-47.1 percent from the floor. However, Portland had 18 more shots attempts due to 15 offensive rebounds and winning the turnover battle (15-7).

The Golden State game came the next night on Wednesday. Dirk Nowitzki had 34 points as the Mavericks rallied from an 18-point deficit. That was a ‘cover’ as 3 ½-point favorites, but they’re still just 2-6 ATS (4-4 ATS) in their last eight games.

Forward Peja Stojakovic has missed the last five games and is doubtful for Friday. He’s started 13 games since coming over in late January and averaged a respectable 8.1 PPG. The Mavericks want to keep Shawn Marion (12.1 PPG) as a super-sub, so they tried starting the newly acquired Corey Brewer against Golden State. He only lasted six minutes (no points).

Center Brendan Haywood (back) is questionable and he provides good relief for starter Tyson Chandler. San Antonio is not reporting any significant injuries.

The Mavericks are 24-10 SU and 15-17-2 ATS at home this year. They’re 2-2 SU (1-3 ATS) in the last four there, losing to the Lakers (96-91) and Memphis (104-103), while beating the Knicks (127-109) and Indiana (116-108).

The ‘over’ is 5-1 in Dallas’ last six home games.

This is the fourth meeting this year between these Lone Star State foes. San Antonio is 2-1 SU and ATS, but Nowitzki missed the two losses, including the Dec. 30 meeting in Big D (99-93).

San Antonio was just 1-7 ATS in its last eight games in Dallas before the December contest.

Tip-off will be 5:30 p.m. (PT) from American Airlines Center. San Antonio will host Charlotte on Saturday night, while Dallas welcomes Golden State on Sunday.

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NHL Betting Preview: Canadiens at NY Rangers

Montreal looks to make it 4-0 against the Rangers in New York on Friday.
An Original Six matchup will be on display Friday night at Madison Square Garden when the New York Rangers meet the Montreal Canadiens for the fourth time this season. The puck drops at 4 p.m. (PT).

Montreal has had little trouble with the Rangers so far, winning all three matchups while allowing the New Yorkers just three goals. The ‘under’ is 2-0-1 in the three meetings, with all three games having a five-goal closing total.

The first get-together took place on Jan. 11, with the Canadiens registering a 2-1 victory as 120 road underdogs. Both squads were 0-for-2 on the power play, with the Habs out-shooting the Rangers, 38-26.

Four days later, Montreal edged the Rangers 3-2 as 120 home favorites. The Canadiens went 2-for-4 with the man advantage, while the Rangers went 0-for-4. Montreal again outshot New York, 41-33.

The most recent meeting (Feb. 5) saw Montreal register a 2-0 victory as a 125 home favorite. Both clubs failed to score with the extra attacker, with the Rangers getting four chances and Montreal receiving two. The Rangers outshot the Habs this time, 35-29, but are now 0-for-10 on the power play against Montreal.

Jacques Martin’s Canadiens must play this contest after hosting the Tampa Bay Lightning the night before. The Habs are 5-7 in the second half of back-to-back games.

Prior to Thursday’s outing, the Habs suffered a 4-2 loss against Washington on Tuesday as 120 home favorites. The loss lowered Montreal’s ledger to 38-25-4-3 and left the club in sixth place in the Eastern Conference with 83 points. The Habs are 13 games above .500 despite outscoring the opposition by just 10 goals (186-176).

Though the combined six goals in Tuesday’s outing skipped ‘over’ the five-goal closing total, the ‘under’ is still 39-22-9 in Montreal’s first 70 overall encounters. The ‘under’ is also a strong 25-7-2 in the club’s first 34 road dates.

Tuesday’s loss was particularly painful for the Habs because two of their centers left the game with lower body injuries. Jeff Halpern and Tomas Plekanec are both listed as “questionable” on the Don Best Sports injury report. Defenseman Hall Gill is also “questionable” with the flu.

Carey Price stopped 37-of-41 Washington shots in a losing effort. Price is now 33-23-4-2 with a 2.32 GAA, a .924 save percentage and eight shutouts.

The Rangers off Tuesday’s 6-3 victory against the Islanders as 155 home favorites. The win evened the Rangers ledger at Madison Square Garden to 16-16-1-2, which is considerably poorer than their 21-14-1-0 road record.

The win gave the Rangers 78 points and allowed them to stay two points ahead of the Buffalo Sabres for the eighth and final Eastern Conference playoff spot.

The combined nine goals soared above the 5 ½-goal closing total, leaving the ‘over’ 8-3-1 in the Rangers’ last 12 home dates. However, the ‘under’ is still 40-27-4 in New York’s first 71 overall outings.

Henrik Lundqvist made 25 saves for the Rangers to notch the victory. He is now 29-24-2-2 with a 2.34 GAA, a .921 save percentage and nine shutouts.

Though the Rangers scored three times with the man advantage against the Islanders, they are just 15th on the power play with a 17.7 percent success rate.

Most of the Rangers success this season has derived from a seventh-ranked defense that is yielding an average of just 2.4 goals per game. The club’s nine shutouts are second-best in the NHL.

Montreal stays on the road by traveling to Minnesota for a Saturday matchup against the Wild. The Rangers make a trip to Pittsburgh for a Saturday showdown against the Penguins.

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Friday's Chicago Tips

March 17, 2011


Bettors looking for rest won’t find it on Friday as we complete the second round of the NCAA tournament. Chicago’s United Center will be the site of interest for the Southwest Region with four of its matchups happening at this location.

We begin our focus at 1:40 p.m. EDT on TBS as the Fighting Irish take on Akron (23-12 straight up, 18-13-1 against the spread) in a 15-2 matchup.

The Zips are making their second trip to the big dance in three seasons and third time in the school’s history. They reached Chicago on the heels of winning the Mid-American Conference crown in a 66-65 triumph over regular season champ Kent State as 1 ½-point pups. Zeke Marshall and Nikola Cvetinovic combined to grab 23 rebounds against the Golden Flashes, while Brett McKnight led the team with 15 points.

Akron was the friend of many bettors out there, going 11-2 SU and ATS in its final 13 games of the season. The ‘over’ held a slight 7-6 advantage in that stretch for the MAC champs.

Notre Dame (26-6 SU, 16-11 ATS) comes into this tourney with the lofty expectations of getting into the Final Four. That tends to happen when you go 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS to finish second in the Big East.

What could temper some gamblers out there is how the Fighting Irish closed out the conference tourney with an 83-77 loss to Louisville in the semis at MSG last Friday as two-point favorites. Ben Hansbrough collapsed under the bright lights in that one, scoring just 13 points and turning the ball over six times to the Cards.

The Irish are getting plenty of love by the oddsmakers in spite of that lousy conference finale, being tabbed as 14-point favorites with a total of 135 ½. Akron can be had at plus-900 (risk $100 to win $900) for the upset.

MAC teams have had a habit of making some noise early in the big dance. Last year, the Bobcats convincingly beat Georgetown in the first round to round out a lot of close battles.

Akron has been a double-digit pup just three times this season. They’ve gone 0-3 SU and 2-1 ATS in those contests. The ‘over’ is 2-1 in that situation. Plus, the Zips have watched the ‘over’ go 2-0 in their two games against programs in the NCAA tournament.

Notre Dame is 4-0 SU and 2-2 ATS as a double-digit “chalk” this year, with the ‘over’ going 3-0 in that time.

Our second contest of the day starts at roughly 4:10 p.m. EDT on TBS between the 10th-seeded Seminoles and No. 7 seed Texas A&M (24-8 SU, 13-10-1 ATS).

Florida State (21-10 SU, 14-10-2 ATS) comes into this tournament as a bit of a wild card. They’ve beaten the Blue Devils this year, but fell to a God awful Auburn side just the week before. The ‘Noles didn’t give the selection committee an easy choice in taking them for the tournament by losing two of their last three games. FSU was wonderful for our purposes in that stretch, covering the spread in all three of those battles. The last matchup for the Seminoles was a 52-51 loss to Virginia Tech as two-point pups in the ACC quarterfinals on March 11.

It’s not like the Aggies are much better of a team than Florida State right now. They closed out the regular season with a 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS record. But they did play better in the Big XII tournament with a 86-71 win over Mizzou in the quarterfinals, then losing 70-58 to Texas in the semis.

The oddsmakers see some similarities between these teams, evidenced by the fact that Texas A&M is listed as a 1 ½-point favorite with a total of 122. FSU is listed at even money to move onto the third round.

The Aggies have gone 8-2 SU and 5-4-1 ATS in 10 games this season where they were listed as single-digit favorites. The ‘under’ was a hefty 7-3 in that stretch. FSU is 3-7 SU and 5-5 ATS this year as a single-digit pup, with the ‘under’ going 6-3.

The evening session gets cracking at 7:20 p.m. EDT on TNT as the third-seeded Boilermakers faces off with the 14th-seed Peacocks.

Purdue (25-7 SU, 18-11 ATS) was one of the nation’s bigger surprises this season. They weren’t expected to do much without Robbie Hummel on the court, but that just pushed JaJuan Johnson to put the team on his back. Johnson led the Boilers with 20.5 points per game, while E’Twaun Moore comes up with 18.2 PPG.

Unfortunately for the Boilermakers, they have been the only players producing as they enter the big dance on a two-game slide. Purdue fell in the Big Ten quarterfinals to the Spartans 74-56 as a seven-point favorite. Johnson and Moore combined for 38 points, but the rest of the team mustered just 18 points.

St. Peter’s (20-13 SU, 20-7 ATS) was more of an afterthought in the Metro Atlantic Conference after finish fourth in the regular season. That didn’t stop the Peacocks from clinching their first trip to the NCAA tournament since 1995 and the third in school history. They made it to this point by dropping Iona 62-57 as nine-point underdogs in the title game. Jeron Belin paced St. Pete’s with 17 points. However, Wesley Jenkins was the main cog in the win with 14 points, five boards and four assists.

Most of the oddsmakers have listed the Boilermakers as 14 ½-point favorites with a total of 119. The Peacocks are coming in at plus-900 (risk $100 to win $900) to pull off what would be a major stunner.

St. Pete’s faced just one team that made the Field of 68, losing 59-52 to Old Dominion back on Nov. 19. The Peacocks at least covered as 13 ½-point road pups against the Monarchs.

Purdue has enjoyed being a double-digit favorite this season, as evidenced by an 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS record. The ‘under’ is 5-3 in that space.

The ‘under’ is on a 4-1 run for the Boilermakers to close out the year.

Our final game of the night session could be the most interesting as the No. 6 Hoyas take on Virginia Commonwealth (24-11 SU, 14-20 ATS) at 9:50 p.m. EDT on TNT.

Georgetown (21-10 SU, 15-15 ATS) couldn’t help but fall over itself down the stretch with a 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS mark. But things could be changing for the better as Chris Wright is “probable” to play in this contest after a left hand injury kept him out of the Hoyas’ last three games. That will give them 13.1 PPG and 5.4 assists per game that can make a huge difference for an offense that has been horribly sluggish.

Wright’s return will no doubt music to Austin Freeman’s ears as he’ll have someone else to make the opposition focus on. That will be huge since Freeman has dropped 21 points against Cincy and 20 against UConn in his last two starts this season.

The Rams come into this matchup after dropping Southern California 59-46 as four-point underdogs in Dayton on Wednesday evening. VCU’s admittance into the field drew the ire of the talking heads at ESPN, but they showed they can beat teams from the big conferences. The Trojans had their chances in this game to win it from the free throw line (25-15 advantage), but could only drain 15 of those freebies. Plus, Nikola Vucevic was held to just 11 points and 14 rebounds. Jamie Skeen came through for Virginia Commonwealth with 16 points and six rebounds.

Georgetown has been opened up as a 5 ½-point favorite with a total of 133 ½. We can take the Rams for their second tourney win at plus-200 (risk $100 to win $200).

VCU comes into this game having won three of its last four games SU, covering the number in two of those tests. The ‘under’ is 6-2 in the last eight matches for the Rams.

Georgetown has seen the ‘under’ go 6-2 in its final eight contests they’ve played.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday's Cleveland Tips

March 18, 2011


The Cleveland pod on Friday involves three Big East clubs and the top seed in the entire NCAA Tournament (Ohio State). This should be one of the more entertaining venues in the first two days of the Big Dance, starting with one of the colder teams in the country battling a former tournament giant slayer.

(8) George Mason vs. (9) Villanova - 2:10 PM EST

An old Cinderella looks to make some noise five years after one of the most miraculous runs in NCAA Tournament history as George Mason battles struggling Villanova. The Wildcats have dropped five straight games, including blowing a 16-point halftime lead in an opening round setback to USF in the Big East tournament.

To make matters worse for Jay Wright's team is the 1-12 ATS mark the last 13 games, as the Wildcats failed to cover 10 times as a favorite. Villanova started conference play at 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS, but their swoon the last seven weeks has gamblers wondering if they'll pick things up here. Four of the five losses in this cold streak have come against tournament participants (Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Syracuse, and St. John's), while barely squeezing out wins against Seton Hall and DePaul in the last month.

George Mason made a massive run to the Final Four in 2006 thanks to victories over Michigan State, North Carolina, and UConn before running out of gas against eventual champion Florida. The Patriots were the most profitable team in the country this season at 22-8 ATS, even though GMU failed to cover three of the last four games. Jim Larranaga's club covered three of five games as an underdog this season, but lost twice in that role to non-tourney teams Dayton and N.C. State.

Two years removed from making the Final Four, Villanova just tries to get out of the first weekend after getting tripped up by St. Mary's in the second round last season. Meanwhile, George Mason is participating in the Big Dance for the first time since an 18-point loss to Notre Dame in the opening round of the 2008 tourney.

Villanova is listed as one-point favorites, while the total is set at 135.

(1) Ohio State vs. (16) Texas-San Antonio - 4:40 PM EST

In the longest line of the first round games, the top-seeded Buckeyes are laying a healthy number against the Roadrunners. Ohio State is a No. 1 seed for the first time since losing in the National Championship to Florida in 2007. UTSA held off Alabama State in one of the First Four games in Dayton, 70-61 as three-point favorites in their first tournament appearance in seven seasons.

The Buckeyes finished the season at 32-2, but put together a pedestrian 16-15 ATS mark. Thad Matta's team claimed a second straight Big 10 tournament championship with their 11-point triumph over Penn State, extending the Buckeyes' winning streak to seven. The only two losses suffered by OSU came on the road at Purdue and Wisconsin in the span of eight days in mid-February as short 'dogs. The Buckeyes didn't profit as a double-digit favorite by going 9-13 ATS, while riding a 4-9 ATS streak in this situation since the start of January.

The Roadrunners wrapped up their first Southland title since 2004 when they edged out McNeese State, 75-72. UTSA played very few teams of substance by losing at Oklahoma State and Tulsa, while the team the Roadrunners beat with the highest RPI was San Jose State (150) in late November. The team is coached by former Oklahoma State guard Brooks Thompson, as the Roadrunners finished tied for fifth in the regular season of the Southland Conference at 9-7.

Ohio State is laying 23 ½ points with the total set at 138.

(6) Xavier vs. (11) Marquette - 7:25 PM EST

One of the more underrated matchups in this tournament kicks off the night action at Quicken Loans Arena with the Big East battling the Atlantic 10. The Musketeers stay in the state of Ohio as they travel from Cincinnati to Cleveland, while the Golden Eagles come into this contest after getting bounced in the quarterfinals of the Big East tournament by Louisville.

Xavier will play with plenty of rest after falling in their first game of the A-10 tournament against Dayton, 68-67 as eight-point 'chalk.' The Musketeers fought back from a 21-3 deficit to tie the game with three minutes left in regulation, but Chris Mack's club wasn't able to extend their winning streak to 10 games. Xavier has been a solid ATS play recently with a 7-2 ATS mark despite the slip-up against Dayton, while limiting seven of its last nine opponents to 63 points or less. The Musketeers were pointspread poison to start the season at 2-9-1 ATS, but a 12-6 ATS run has given XU backers more confidence down the stretch.

Marquette began Big East play at 4-2 following home wins over West Virginia and Notre Dame, but the Golden Eagles stumbled to a 5-7 mark the final 12 regular season games to finish 9-9 in conference play. The 4-2 start also benefited gamblers with six straight covers at the time, while concluded the season (including the Big East tournament) at 7-7 ATS. The key for Buzz Williams' team is defense, as Marquette has cashed the 'under' in 12 of the last 14 contests.

The Golden Eagles make games exciting in the tournament by losing in each of the last three NCAA Tournaments by a combined seven points (Washington - 2010, Missouri - 2009, Stanford - 2008). Xavier is searching for its fourth straight Sweet 16 appearance after going 6-0 SU/ATS the last six games in the first weekend since 2008.

(3) Syracuse vs. (14) Indiana State - 9:55 PM EST

The night wraps up with the Orange trying to avoid an upset in the late game as Syracuse battles an upstart Indiana State squad. The Sycamores were made famous by Larry Bird leading ISU to the title game in 1979, as they are coming off their first Missouri Valley Championship since 2001. The Orange looks for their third straight trip to the Sweet 16, while Syracuse is riding a 6-1 SU run.

Jim Boeheim's club began the season at 18-0, but proceeded to lose six of the next eight games. Syracuse didn't fade away with a late-season surge, while owning a 4-8 ATS mark as a double-digit favorite this season. Playing away from the Carrier Dome turned into a slightly profitable play at 8-6 ATS, as the Orange won 10 of 14 games outside of Syracuse.

Indiana State caught fire at the right time with eight wins in the final nine games, while the lone defeat coming to upstart Morehead State in the Bracket Buster challenge. The Sycamores finished in third place of the MVC, but ran the table in the conference tournament, including an upset of Missouri State in the title game. Indiana State rallied from a halftime deficit, while holding the Bears to 30% shooting from the floor. The Sycamores were a solid play down the stretch for bettors by cashing in eight of the final 10 games, including five straight as underdogs.

Syracuse is listed as a 12-point favorite, while the total is listed at 129. The day games in Cleveland will be televised on TNT before the nigh action moves to TruTV.

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Tennessee favored by 2 points over Michigan


#9 seed TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS (19-14)

vs. #8 seed MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (20-13)


NCAA Tournament – Second Round
Tip-off: Friday, 12:40 p.m. EDT – Charlotte, NC
Line: Tennessee -2, Total: 127.5

Michigan and Tennessee just want to play basketball. Which is to say both programs do not want the focus of their respective school to be off the court, who said what, when they did it, and why. Instead of taking pre-game questions about what his post-game job security will be, Tennessee coach Bruce Pearl wants to spend some time on John Beilein’s club, and the impressive turnaround that his counterpart has orchestrated in Ann Arbor, getting the school back into the tourney for only the second time since 1998. Michigan basketball has been in the news this week, not for today’s squad, but rather the team that represented the school 20 years ago, as comments made by former Wolverine player Jalen Rose in a documentary about the “Fab Five” has stirred up controversy and old wounds over his feelings for Duke University and its former players. Let’s not even get into the possibility of Duke and Michigan meeting in the next round of the tournament. First things first, there is enough sizzle and intrigue (basketball intrigue) in Friday’s 8-vs.-9 matchup to keep fans occupied without needing to log onto a Twitter account.

Tennessee has basically been playing with a storm cloud in its vicinity all year long, ever since Bruce Pearl’s NCAA issues came to light last summer and fall. The SEC has already chimed in, the NCAA ruling is yet to come. The controversy in many ways has taken the spotlight off of how up-and-down a season it has been for the Vols, and how dangerous a team they could be at this time of year. Tennessee won its first seven games, four of which came over teams in this year’s tournament field (Villanova, Pittsburgh, Belmont and VCU) before hitting a pothole where it lost six of nine between mid-December and mid-January. Now Tennessee enters the big dance losers of seven of its past 11, and unsure what it is capable of in March. The Vols have the ability to win on the road against tough competition both in and outside of SEC play, as well as the ability to experience dizzying levels of inconsistency on the offensive end. Tennessee is like the title of Dennis Rodman's book, they can be as good or as bad as they wanna be. Michigan undoubtedly is concerned about the good part. Scotty Hopson (17.4 PPG) and freshman Tobias Harris (15.2 PPG, 7.3 RPG) are scary athletic, long, and an opposing coach’s worst nightmare when they are hitting from the perimeter. The top story in the paint is that Brian Williams (7.7 RPG) and Harris are 1-2 on the team in rebounding. Tennessee’s active lifestyle on the glass (38.0 RPG is 34th-best in Division I) makes up for a lot of misfires in the shooting game (43.3% as a team, 186th in nation). The underperforming Wolverine rebounders (32.0 RPG, 300th in Div. I) need to be concerned about Tennessee’s ability to turn missed shots into extra shots and points.

While they do not have a senior, the Wolverines do have an interesting story of resurrection to be proud of, bouncing back from a subpar 15-17 campaign in 2010 to surge their way back into the tourney for the second time in the four-year tenure of Beilein. Sophomore guard Darius Morris (15.3 PPG, 6.7 APG) from Los Angeles leads the team in scoring and assists while shooting almost 50% from the floor. Freshman Tim Hardaway Jr. (son of the former NBA star) is the only other Wolverine scoring in double figures at 13.9 PPG. Zack Novak may not be a senior, but he does know what its like to play in the tournament, having been a member of the 2009 squad that was bounced in the second round. Novak leads the team in rebounding at 5.7 RPG, and along with freshman Jordan Morgan (9.2 PPG, 5.5 RPG) will have their hands full containing a very aggressive Tennessee team. Beilein’s teams have a reputation for being difficult to prepare for and defend at tournament time, but given the course that the Volunteers’ season has taken, on and off the court, Pearl prefers having this obstacle on his plate on Friday, rather than something else. "The challenge of guarding John Beilein's offense is much, much, much greater than the challenge of getting our guys through any kind of distraction," Pearl said. "I promise you this."

Although Tennessee is a poor 13-19 ATS overall, including 2-9 ATS in its past 11 games, the Vols have a winning ATS mark away from home (8-7). Michigan is 20-8 ATS (71%) overall, 12-1 ATS in its past 13 games, 12-4 ATS as an underdog and 12-3 ATS with 3+ days of rest. Despite the Wolverines having the huge advantage in every ATS category, the Volunteers are the more talented team, and Pearl has had a history of overachieving in recent NCAA Tournament play. The FoxSheets provide two more coaching trends backing Tennessee to win on Friday.

Bruce Pearl is 33-16 ATS (67.3%, +15.4 Units) versus teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots/game on the season in all games he has coached since 1997. The average score was Pearl 75.8, OPPONENT 70.0 - (Rating = 1*).

Bruce Pearl is 33-16 ATS (67.3%, +15.4 Units) versus teams who average 33 or less rebounds/game on the season in all games he has coached since 1997. The average score was Pearl 76.0, OPPONENT 65.4 - (Rating = 1*).

This highly-rated FoxSheets coaching trend advises a play on the Under.

Pearl is 16-4 UNDER (80.0%, +11.6 Units) versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season after 15+ games as the coach of TENNESSEE. The average score was TENNESSEE 68.8, OPPONENT 67.5 - (Rating = 3*).

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FSU and Texas A&M match up in defensive struggle


#10 seed FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES (21-10)

vs. #7 seed TEXAS A&M AGGIES (24-8)


NCAA Tournament – Second Round
Tip-off: Friday, 4:10 p.m. EDT – Chicago, IL
Line: Texas A&M -1, Total: 121.5

Florida State takes on Texas A&M in a battle between the ACC and Big 12 in the second round of the NCAA Tournament.

The Seminoles are 14-10 ATS this season and 9-7 away from their home court, but they have won three straight ATS with only one of those wins coming at home. Florida State has lived on defense all season, leading the nation in FG percentage defense in holding opponents to just 36.4 percent shooting, and ranking second in the ACC in scoring defense at 62.3 PPG allowed. Its offense, which struggled all season, ranking eighth in the ACC with 69.3 PPG, might be in even more trouble if Chris Singleton is unable to play. Singleton, who is listed as questionable with a broken right foot, is the only Seminole to average double-figures this season (13.8 PPG) as well as the team’s leading rebounder at 7.1 RPG. He was injured in the first half against Virginia on Feb. 12 and had surgery two days later. The Seminoles have split six games in his absence.

Picked to finish sixth in the Big 12 in the preseason after losing Donald Sloan and Bryan Davis, the Aggies wound up tying Kansas State for third in the conference. They are 13-10 ATS this season, with an 8-6 record ATS away from home. They have relied on their defense as well this season, holding opponents to just 41.1 percent shooting and ranking second in the Big 12 in points allowed (61.0 PPG). If the Aggies hope to advance, they need to improve on their horrid three-point shooting (33.8 percent) which ranked second-worst in their conference. FSU shoots only 33.0% from downtown, so there should be a lot of scrambles for long rebounds on Friday.

The Seminoles have not won an NCAA Tournament game since 1998 when they defeated TCU in the first round. Texas A&M has won a game in each of the past five years, including reaching the Sweet 16 in 2007. This is the first time the Aggies are playing a team from the ACC since losing to Duke in the first round in 1987. It’s hard to expect the Seminoles, even with a healthy Singleton to win, since he hasn’t played in over a month. I’m taking Texas A&M to advance to the Round of 32. The FoxSheets provide a four-star coaching trend supporting the Aggies:

Mark Turgeon is 11-1 ATS (91.7%, +9.9 Units) in road games after a game with 9 or less assists as the coach of TEXAS A&M. The average score was TEXAS A&M 64.6, OPPONENT 63.3 - (Rating = 4*).

With both teams featuring great defenses and poor long-range shooting, the Under appears to the right bet for Friday. The FoxSheets show a highly-rated trend siding with the Under.

Play Under - All teams where the total is 129.5 or less (TEXAS A&M) - after 2 or more consecutive overs, in a game involving two average offensive teams (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games. (85-42 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.9%, +38.8 units. Rating = 3*).

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Well-traveled Washington faces Georgia Friday

#10 seed GEORGIA BULLDOGS (21-11)

vs. #7 seed WASHINGTON HUSKIES (23-10)


NCAA Tournament – Second Round
Tip-off: Friday, 9:45 p.m. EDT – Charlotte, NC
Line: Washington -5, Total: 141

If it’s true that the road to glory is long, than the Washington Huskies will have either great joy or great agony awaiting them when they finally take the last plane ride of this season. Lorenzo Romar’s Huskies must travel over 2,800 miles from its Seattle campus to Charlotte, NC to take on its second round opponent, the Georgia Bulldogs. Washington was hoping for a little more leniency, and a little less traveling when the tournament bids came out, after they won the Pac-10 Tournament over regular-season conference champion Arizona. On the other hand, the Huskies know that they have their own inconsistent play to blame for the frequent flyer miles they will be earning, as two losing streaks at the beginning of February and March doomed their chances of playing closer to home in the tournament. "I'm thinking, during our season, if we take care of our business, we don't have to worry about that," Romar said Thursday. "We've been inconsistent this year, and as a result, we've flown across the country 2,800 miles. Maybe if we had done a little better job during our season, we wouldn't have had to go so far. We kind of made our bed, you know?" Now Washington will be making and sleeping in beds in Charlotte, NC as it prepares to battle the Georgia Bulldogs, who will be competing just 3.5 hours away from its Athens, GA campus.

The Bulldogs’ Selection Sunday weekend was not without some anxiety. After their 65-59 overtime loss to Alabama in the SEC quarterfinals, Mark Fox’s team was on pins and needles awaiting the selection committee’s final verdict. When the dust had settled, Georgia had its first NCAA at-large bid since 2002. “It's a grand opportunity to be at this point and still be playing,” said forward Trey Thompkins (16.1 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 1.7 BPG). "I feel like our team is mature enough that we can handle the fact that we're in the tournament very well. Coach (Mark) Fox has done a great job of keeping us focused and worried about the task at hand and worrying about Washington. Not looking forward, not looking back."

The Dawgs are led by the junior trio of forward Thompkins, guard Travis Leslie (14.5 PPG, 7.2 RPG) and guard Gerald Robinson (12.2 PPG, 4.2 APG). Averaging 37.7 RPG (43rd-best in Division I) the Dawgs are one of the better rebounding teams in the land, and they also rank 19th in the nation in FG Pct. defense (39.6%). However, Washington averages 83.5 PPG (3rd-most in Division I), hauls down nearly 40 rebounds per game itself (39.3 RPG, 12th in nation), and shoots 47.1% from the floor (25th in Division I). For good measure, with the elimination of Belmont, Washington is the most efficient three-point shooting team left in the field at 37.1% three-point FG accuracy and 8.8 three-point FG per game.

The last time we saw Washington in action, Isaiah Thomas (16.8 PPG, 6.0 APG) was delivering a game-ending, buzzer-beating dagger to Arizona as the Huskies resoundingly won the Pac-10 title, 77-75 in overtime. Thomas scored 28 points in the win to go along with seven assists. Thomas certainly is not the only weapon the Huskies have, he just generates so much of the offense between his scoring and his distribution of the ball. Senior forward Matthew Bryan-Amaning (15.5 PPG, 8.1 RPG) leads the team in rebounding, and is second in scoring. Fellow senior Justin Holiday (10.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG) is third on the team in scoring and rebounding. Next to Connecticut and Kansas, it’s hard to imagine a team entering the NCAA Tournament coming off of a conference tournament title on a higher high than the Huskies are right now. Now they get to find out if their swagger and shooting eye will make its way across the country as its star guard makes his way through the lane.

These teams have nearly identical ATS marks. Georgia is 13-15 ATS this season with an 8-7 record ATS away from home, while the Huskies are 15-15 ATS this season, which includes a 7-8 record away from home. Despite winning the Pac-10 Tournament, Washington has lost five of its past six ATS. But the Huskies are 6-3 ATS in non-conference games, while the Bulldogs are a pitiful 3-7 ATS in non-SEC games and 1-4 ATS at a neutral site. All signs point to Washington winning and covering the spread. The FoxSheets provide another reason to pick the Huskies.

Mark Fox is 8-20 ATS (28.6%, -14.0 Units) in all tournament games in all games he has coached since 1997. The average score was Fox 71.6, OPPONENT 66.1 - (Rating = 1*).

This four-star FoxSheets trend likes the Over for Friday’s game.

GEORGIA is 11-1 OVER (91.7%, +9.9 Units) vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was GEORGIA 70.7, OPPONENT 72.8 - (Rating = 4*).

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Red-hot Nuggets look for rare sweep of Orlando


DENVER NUGGETS (41-27)

at ORLANDO MAGIC (43-26)


Tip-off: Friday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Orlando -5, Total: 205

The Nuggets will try for their fifth straight win Friday night when they visit Orlando to take on the Magic. They will also be trying to sweep the season series with the Magic for the first time in 19 years.

The Nuggets are 35-31 ATS this season and 18-16 ATS on the road. They have been excellent ATS recently, winning four straight and 11 of 12 overall, while winning three straight and six of seven ATS on the road. Denver has been very satisfied with the results of trading Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups, as it has gone 9-2 SU (10-1 ATS) since sending both players to New York. In defeating the Hawks 102-87 on Wednesday, Wilson Chandler had 14 points and 10 rebounds for his first double-double since being acquired in that deal, while Nene led the Nuggets with 20 points. Denver shot better than 53 percent for a third consecutive game and had at least five players score in double figures for a fourth straight contest. The Nuggets have averaged 108.6 points and 25.8 assists since the trade. Before the move, they were averaging 21.2 assists. J.R. Smith has been on fire from three-point range in his past three games, making 17-of-29 shots (59%) and averaging 21.3 PPG over that span.

Orlando is 30-38 ATS this season and has really been struggling lately, losing two straight and six of its past seven ATS. The Magic completed a 3-2 road trip with a 93-89 overtime win at Milwaukee on Wednesday, clinching their fifth straight playoff appearance. But they have been hurt by sloppy ball-handling lately, and are 3½ games back of Miami for the Southeast Division lead. Orlando had 19 turnovers Wednesday and is committing 16.7 per game this month - two more than its season average. The Magic were 20-of-35 at the free-throw line against the Bucks and finished the road trip shooting 62.4 percent at the line, dropping their league-worst average to 69.1% FT. Dwight Howard is averaging 26.3 points and 17.3 rebounds the past three games. However, he's averaged only 15.8 points in the last four meetings with the Nuggets, and Orlando lost three of those.

The Nuggets defeated the Magic in December at home, but that was with Carmelo Anthony who scored a game-high 35 points. Denver has not won a season series against the Magic since 1991-92, and is just 3-19 all-time at Orlando. However, the Nuggets have really taken off since relieving themselves of the dramatics of the Anthony situation, and are playing their best basketball of the season. I like the Denver plus the points on the road. This highly-rated FoxSheets trend also sides with the Nuggets:

ORLANDO is 5-18 ATS (21.7%, -14.8 Units) after playing a game as a road favorite this season. The average score was ORLANDO 98.6, OPPONENT 99.4 - (Rating = 3*).

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Struggling Mavs host slumping Spurs on Friday


SAN ANTONIO SPURS (54-13)

at DALLAS MAVERICKS (48-20)


Tip-off: Friday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Dallas -2, Total: 198

The Mavs have come up short against the Spurs in their past two meetings, but they might be getting San Antonio at its most vulnerable.

While they still have the NBA’s best record, the Spurs have been less than dominant of late, especially against the league’s elite. Since trouncing the Heat by 30 on March 4, they’ve gone just 1-4 ATS, including lopsided losses to the Lakers (99-83) and Heat (110-80).

They’re simply not shooting as well from behind the three-point arc. The Spurs average 103.4 PPG and are shooting 39.9% from three on the season, but over their past five games they’re averaging 99.4 PPG and shooting 35.1% from three. Manu Ginobili (31.8% 3-pt FG in past five games) and George Hill (18.8% 3-pt FG) have not been able to find the range of late.

On top of that, the Spurs are allowing 104.6 PPG in that five-game span, more than seven points more than they allow on the season. However, part of that has been due to unusually hot free-throw shooting by opponents (85.1%), something that’s simply bad luck.

The Mavs aren’t playing their best basketball either. They’ve dropped four of seven SU and five of seven ATS. They’ve been just fine offensively during that span, averaging 104.9 PPG and shooting an impressive 49.3% from the field. Dirk Nowitzki has been particularly hot, averaging 26.3 PPG while shooting 51.2% from the field. He’s also had his way with the Spurs the past two seasons, averaging 28.2 PPG over five games against San Antonio. The Spurs have beaten the Mavs in their past two meetings, but Nowitzki missed both those games. With Dirk in the lineup, the Mavs are 4-1 SU and ATS against San Antonio over the past two regular seasons.

But Dallas is having defensive issues, surrendering 102.4 PPG over its past seven games, allowing 100 points five times during that span. The Mavs are allowing 26.4 free throws per game, four more than they have on the season, a sign of lazy and sloppy defense.

It’s not an easy call since neither team has brought their A-game of late, but I think the Spurs are smart enough to exploit the Mavs’ uninspired defense. Plus, San Antonio has the league’s second-best ATS road record (21-11 ATS, 66%), while Dallas is a subpar 15-17 ATS at home. My pick is San Antonio, and the FoxSheets show a four-star trend in the Spurs’ favor:

SAN ANTONIO is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) versus good passing teams, averaging >=23 assists/game this season. The average score was SAN ANTONIO 105.9, OPPONENT 95.5 - (Rating = 4*).

And with the recent defensive issues of both teams, I’m also expecting the total to go Over. The FoxSheets have a couple four-star trends to back that up, including:

DALLAS is 13-1 OVER (92.9%, +11.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season. The average score was DALLAS 111.3, OPPONENT 104.6 - (Rating = 4*).

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Friday's Charlotte Tips

March 18, 2011


Let’s begin our discussion of the Charlotte pod with none other than Tennessee’s incompetent AD Mike Hamilton, who is the heavy favorite to be named Dumbass of the Week. There’s absolutely no reason for Hamilton to be mentioned in a primer for four NCAA Tournament games Friday, but the knucklehead has forced our hand.

First of all, no AD should make a habit of going on local radio shows to imply that a current head coach is going to be out of a job in the not-too-distant future. Secondly, you certainly don’t pull a stunt like that less than 48 hours before the basketball team takes the court for the NCAA Tournament.

But that’s exactly what Hamilton did on Wednesday when appearing on a Knoxville sports radio show. When asked if Bruce Pearl will return next season, Hamilton said, "We don't know the answer today. We've done a lot of soul searching about the direction of our program and we'll continue to do that and we'll decide after we're out of the NCAA Tournament what direction it is that we're going to go next."

When pressed further, Hamilton said, "We're not going to finish our evaluation until after the season is over."

Instead of focusing on taking on Michigan today, Pearl and his players were subjected to questions galore from the media Thursday about the future of the head coach. And that’s not fair to Tobias Harris on the eve of his first career appearance in the NCAA Tournament. It’s not fair to senior center Brian Williams, who played such a pivotal role in getting the Volunteers to the Elite Eight last season.

Sure, Pearl is the one who created this mess, but he’s done a lot of good things at Tennessee, too. For instance, he’s taken the Vols to the NCAA Tournament in every season of his tenure. He’s led UT to a 4-1 record in first-round games, but the sixth such game will be played with his team distracted due to an inept decision of an AD that should also be on his way out of town (think Lame Chafin’).

As of early this morning, most books were listing Tennessee (19-14 straight up, 13-19 against the spread) as a two-point favorite with a total of 127 ½. The Vols have been listed as a single-digit favorite 12 times this year, posting an abysmal 4-8 spread record.

Michigan (20-13 SU, 20-8 ATS) has been a spread-cover juggernaut since turning its season around on Jan. 27 when it snapped a six-game losing streak by winning at Michigan State. Since then, the Wolverines have cashed tickets at an incredible 12-1 ATS clip.

Tim Hardaway Jr. and Darius Miller have been the catalysts in the team’s late-season surge. Hardaway has scored in double figures 14 consecutive times, averaging 17.8 points per game. Miller is the point guard who creates easy looks for his teammates and scores plenty himself. For the season, Miller is averaging team-highs in points (15.2 PPG) and assists (6.7 APG).

Michigan owns an incredible 13-4 spread record in 17 underdog situations, covering the number in nine straight such spots. The ‘over’ is 15-11-2 overall for Michigan.

UT will be looking to end a five-game losing streak ATS. The Vols have seen the ‘over’ go 6-2 in their last eight outings.

Tip-off is scheduled for 12:40 p.m. Eastern on TruTV.

Duke (30-4 SU, 19-14 ATS) has been installed as a 23-point favorite versus 16th-seeded Hampton, the winner of the MEAC Tournament. These teams will collide at 3:10 p.m. Eastern.

Since I’m passing on this game, the thing I’m going to be looking at the most is Duke freshman point guard Kyrie Irving, who is expected to see 15-20 minutes off the bench in his first game since sustaining a toe injury way back on Dec. 4. Irving was averaging 17.4 points, 5.1 assists and 3.8 rebounds per game.

Duke bounced back from a loss at North Carolina in its regular-season finale to win three in a row at the ACC Tournament, including a finals victory over the Tar Heels to take two of three against its arch rival. Nolan Smith garnered tournament MVP honors after scoring 20 points and dishing out 10 assists against UNC.

Mike Krzyzewski’s team has been a double-digit ‘chalk’ 23 times, going 13-10 ATS. Duke

Hampton (24-8 SU, 8-3 ATS) took the cash in all three of its MEAC Tourney games, including a 60-55 win over Morgan St. in the finals. Brandon Tunnell scored a team-high 20 points for the Pirates, who also got 12 points from leading scorer Darrion Pellum (17.7 PPG).

Hampton has compiled a 3-1 spread record in four games as an underdog. The Pirates cashed tickets in both of their games as double-digit underdogs, losing 63-56 at Wake Forest as 11 ½-point ‘dogs and winning 77-75 at Colorado St. when catching 10 ½ points. We should also mention that they beat one team in the field, capturing a 51-50 win vs. Boston U.

The ‘under’ is 18-15 overall for Duke, 7-2 in its last nine games.

In the first game of the night session, second-seeded North Carolina (26-7 SU, 15-14-1 ATS) will face Long Island U. as a 17 ½-point favorite. The total is the highest of all the first-round games, listed in the 158-159 range as of early this morning.

UNC has been a double-digit favorite seven times, posting a 3-4 spread record. The Tar Heels have won 19 of their last 23 games. They had nine in a row before losing to the Duke in the finals of the ACC Tourney.

Long Island (27-5 SU, 1-2 ATS) has only lost once since mid-December and brings a 13-game winning streak to Charlotte. The Blackbirds beat Robert Morris 85-82 in overtime to win the Northeast Conference’s automatic bid. Jamal Olasewere led the way with 31 points, 11 rebounds and four steals. C.J. Garner and Jason Brickman added 15 points apiece.

LIU has only played one team in the NCAA field, losing 65-62 at St. Peter’s in a non-lined matchup. Perhaps the best opponent the Blackbirds faced was Northwestern, which beat them by an 81-65 count.

The ‘under’ is 17-12-1 overall for UNC, 2-1 overall for LIU.

The nightcap game will pit Georgia (21-11 SU, 13-15 ATS) against Washington, the winner of the Pac-10 Tournament. Most spots are listing the Huskies as five-point favorites with a total of 141. Gamblers can take UGA to win outright for a plus-200 payout (risk $100 to win $200).

Mark Fox’s team lost a heartbreaker to Alabama in overtime to drop out of the SEC Tournament quarterfinals. However, despite two losses to ‘Bama in six days, the Dawgs got the nod ahead of the Crimson Tide from the Selection Committee. (I agreed with the decision, by the way.)

UGA is led by a pair of future NBA players in junior power forward Trey Thompkins (16.1 PPG, 7.5 RPG) and junior slasher Travis Leslie, who is one of the nation’s premier athletes and the best dunker in the program since Dominique Wilkins. When I think of Leslie, I think of Gerald Wallace, who also hailed from the SEC (Alabama).

Washington (23-10 SU, 15-15-1 ATS) lost three of its last five regular-season games, only to catch fire in Los Angeles and win three in a row. Lorenzo Romar’s squad beat Arizona 77-75 in the finals thanks to Isaiah Thomas’s buzzer-beating jumper in overtime. Thomas finished with 28 points, seven assists and five rebounds against the Wildcats.

UW has been a single-digit ‘chalk’ on 13 occasions, limping to a 5-8 ATS mark. UGA has posted a 6-4 spread record in 10 underdog situations.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Butler senior power forward Matt Howard scored a layup just before the horn sounded to lift Butler to a 60-58 win over Old Dominion as a two-point underdog in the first game of Thursday’s action. Howard was sensational all day, tying Shelvin Mack for a team-high 15 points. More than anything, though, Howard made all the little plays. He has an incredible nose for the ball and outstanding passing skills for a big man. His tip pass to Andrew Smith for an easy dunk off an offensive rebound was a thing of beauty.

--The ‘under’ is on an 8-1 run in Pitt games and a 6-1 roll in Butler’s last seven outings. The total for their second-round showdown is 128. The Panthers are favored by 7 ½ points.

--Kentucky freshman Brandon Knight didn’t make a basket from the field until his team’s final possession, making a driving shot with just a few ticks remaining to lift the Wildcats to a 59-57 win over a game Princeton squad. The 116 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 131 ½-point total. The ‘Cats advance into the second round to face West Virginia as 3 ½-point favorites.

--Florida and UCLA will meet in the NCAA Tournament on Saturday afternoon for the third time in six years. The Gators won both previous encounters, blasting the Bruins in the 2006 national-championship game and doing the same the following season the national semifinals.

--Thursday’s Best Games:
1-Butler 60, ODU 58
2-Kentucky 59, Princeton 57
3-Morehead St. 62, Louisville 61
4-Temple 66, Penn State 64
5-Richmond 69, Vanderbilt 66

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's Big Dance Review

March 18, 2011


Several years ago, after joining the ranks of the television analysts, the late Al McGuire would remind listeners every March about one particular necessity of success in the Big Dance. “If a team is going to win this whole thing,” the former Marquette coach used to say, “it’s going to have to win a close one along the way, to get that monkey off its back.”

McGuire was speaking from experience; his last Marquette team in 1977, the one that finally won him his only championship, had to dodge quite a bullet in the semifinal round that year at the Omni in Atlanta. The then-known Warriors scored a last-second bucket not too unlike the one converted by the Soviets in the 1972 Olympics against Mr. Henry Iba’s USA team when Butch Lee’s full-court pass was caught and remarkably converted by Jerome Whitehead at the buzzer (you can find it on You Tube). Marquette thus won that one over Cedric Maxwell’s UNC Charlotte by a 51-49 count before beating North Carolina in the finale on Monday night. And McGuire would often refer to his Marquette team in that UNCC thriller as a prime example of a championship team “getting that monkey off is back” and winning a close game in the tourney setting.

Well, if we’re talking about monkeys during Thursday’s Day One of Sub-Regional action, it looked like the squadron of those flying types from the Wizard of Oz. We’ve never seen more buzzer beaters and close calls in the first day of sub-regional action; indeed, the five games decided by two points or fewer equaled a record set way back in 1990. Adding in another result decided by 3 points, another by 5, and a few backdoor covers with both sides and “totals” results, and we’re not sure we’ve ever seen a more wild first day of sub-regional action.

Following are some of the bests (and worsts) from Thursday...

Best Game... Tough call here. But we’ll opt for Morehead State’s 62-61 upset over Louisville in Denver. The final ten minutes more resembled a see-saw as the teams went back-and-forth; Louisville’s 48-41 lead was short-lived as a 16-4 run by Morehead put the Ohio Valley rep up by 5 with just over 5 minutes to play. Louisville, playing without leading scorer Preston Knowles due to a foot injury for the last 8:51, then responded with its own 9-0 spurt to assume a 61-57 edge. It was then up to the underdog Eagles to score the last five points of the game, rolling the dice and taking the lead in the final ticks with G Demonte Harper’s three-point shot with 4.2 seconds to play (Harper had earlier missed all five of his triples and 7 of 9 previous shots from the floor). But the play of the game was in fact made by referee LaMar Simpson, who correctly swallowed his whistle on Louisville’s last-second attempt to win the game on a shot (or was it a pass?) by Louisville’s Mike Marra, when some (including TV announcers Verne Lundquist and Bill Raftery) called for a foul on the Eagles’ Kenneth Faried. Raftery quickly changed his tune when looking at the replay, noting that Faried had indeed appeared to go straight up and defend the play cleanly, but we know a lot of refs (many of whom we watched in Thursday action) who would have done the knee-jerk thing and whistled Faried for a foul. And Raftery’s initial reaction showed just how difficult it must have been for Simpson to resists blowing his whistle.

The Eagles also prevailed despite getting a sub-par afternoon of work on the offensive end from their star PF Faried, who converted only 4 of 17 FG attempts for 12 points but did show why he’s the nation’s leading rebounder with 17 caroms. It also marked the second straight year an Ohio Valley rep has scored a first-round upset; last year it was more of the mild variety, but Murray State prevailed over Vanderbilt, 66-65, on another last-second shot.

Honorable mention: Kentucky’s 59-57 win over Princeton wasn’t secured until frosh G Brandon Knight’s graceful, banking lay-in shot with 2 seconds remaining. We don’t like to second-guess the Tigers and HC Sydney Johnson, but for the Ivy champs’ sake we were dreading the Wildcats having the ball with an opportunity at the last shot to win. Sometimes we believe every coach should have a chance to look at the highlights of the 1983 title run by Jim Valvano’s North Carolina State Wolfpack, wherein Jimmy V continued to confound he experts (and opponents) down the stretch of many NCAA Tourney games by committing fouls and daring the opposition to make two free throws. This was still in the days when all fouls beyond the limit were rewarded with one-and-one FT tries, as opposed to only the 7th thru 9th team fouls today. But with UK in the one-and-one in the last half-minute and only having hit 6 of its 11 previous FTs, we would have bet that the 1983 version of Valvano would have dared the Wildcats and put them on the line. Even if converting both ends of the one-and-one, Princeton could win the game with a 3-point basket; if all that was needed was a 2-pointer, we would have taken our chances with either G Dan Mavraides, who hit two clutch shots in a row to pull the Tigers even just moments earlier, or backcourt mate Doug Davis, whose last-second dagger knocked out Harvard in the recent Ivy League playoff. Either way, we would have liked to have seen Princeton have the ball with a chance to win it in the last seconds, instead of giving that opportunity to more-talented Kentucky instead.

Butler’s 60-58 win over Old Dominion in Washington was no less exciting with Matt Howard’s tip-in right at the buzzer. That ODU was still in the game in the second half despite not being able to hit an outside shot was somewhat amazing; we had figured that the day the Monarchs went out would be when their outside shooting betrayed them, as was the case in the final 15 minutes at the Verizon Center. All totaled, there were 21 lead changes in this game, with no side ahead by more than six points.

Pointspread thrillers: There were a number of these as well, including Butler’s aforementioned squeaker against Old Dominion. UCLA also nearly blew all of a 23-point lead in the final minutes against Michigan State. And Utah State, a 2½-point dog vs. Kansas State, had a three-point shot at the buzzer that would have cut the final margin to 73-71. But for pure backdoor thrills, not much could match Wofford’s unlikely cover against BYU, after the Terriers lost touch in the final five minutes or so and seemed destined for a double-digit defeat. Wofford, an 8½-point underdog, cut it close, falling behind by as many as 14 in the last few minutes and having to play catch-up vs. the BYU starters, including Jimmer Fredette, who was still in the game on the Cougars’ final possession and BYU up 11. Fredette’s three-pointer missed with 8 seconds left and the Terriers had a chance to cover, with Cameron Rundles bypassing a layup (which it looked for a moment as if he might take) and instead finding Terry Martin in the corner for a long-range triple that found nothing but net with 0:00.4 to play. Wofford loses 74-66 but gets the money in what might stand as the best backdoor cover we’ll see for the rest of the Dance.

Honorable mention: Those who were able to play an “over” on the UCSB-Florida game before it hit 130 late in the afternoon were treated to quite a thriller at the St. Pete Times Forum...for the “totals” result, that is. The Gators were home and hosed by halftime when up 43-19, so the only remaining drama came with the “totals’ result. Into the last minute and the score at 77-49, free throws ended up pushing the game to 130, including the last two with 15 seconds to play by Florida reserve G Kyle McClanahan, only a 50% FT shooter all season. McClanhan calmly hit both to push the total to 130.

Player of the Day: Kevin Anderson, Richmond... The Spiders’ senior guard has probably had better efforts throughout his career, but none were as clutch as his contributions on Thursday at Denver as UR rallied past Vandy 69-66. A series of big baskets down the stretch, including a near impossible shot while falling away toward the baseline, staked the Spiders to their final 3-point edge in the waning seconds, from which Vandy could not recover. Anderson ended up with 25 points on the day.

Injury of the day: Jeff Brooks, Penn State... The Nittany Lions’ best frontliner went out in the first minute of the second half against Temple, re-injuring the same right shoulder that temporarily sidelined him in early February. His absence did not help Penn State in an eventual 66-64 defeat courtesy of a last-second, leaning jumper by Juan Fernandez that came of the heels of a deep Talor Battle triple that tied the score a few seconds earlier.

Disappointing teams of the day: St. John’s & Missouri... A few Big East observers sensed that Steve Lavin’s Red Storm might have peaked a few weeks too early and could be vulnerable in Denver against Gonzaga. The injury to valuable 6'5 swingman D.J. Kennedy didn’t help matters, and St. John’s never even had a look at the Zags in an 86-71 defeat. Most embarrassing was the 41-18 rebound edge owned by Gonzaga, a depressing way for Lavs’ mostly-upbeat first season to conclude. Meanwhile, Mizzou was also out of it from the early going and put up little resistance against Cincinnati in a 78-63 defeat at the Verizon Center in D.C. The Bearacts, no collection of sharpshooters, hit 54% from the floor and kept Mike Anderson’s transition game in check. Now, let’s see about those rumors regarding a possible Anderson move to Arkansas...

Thursday spread and conference results: Not a bad day for big chalk, as four of six double-digit favorites prevailed, although overall it was an 8-6 edge for the underdogs (with Mizzou-Cincy and Gonzaga-St. John’s called as pick’em for these purposes). Big East teams covered in 3 of 5 chances.

Let’s see what transpires on Friday...and if any more teams can get Al McGuire’s “monkey” off of their backs.