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NCAA Tournament Odds: Butler and Old Dominion collide

The DC pod includes a great 8/9 matchup between the
Butler Bulldogs and Old Dominion Monarchs.
Two of the hottest teams in the nation collide in a first-round NCAA Tournament Southeast Region game when eighth-seeded Butler and ninth-seeded Old Dominion meet Thursday at 9:40 a.m. PT in Washington’s Verizon Center.

That can’t make Pittsburgh, the No. 1 seed in the Southeast Region, too happy. The Panthers draw the winner of the Butler-Old Dominion should they advance as expected.

Not surprisingly, a low score is expected between the Bulldogs and Monarchs with the total set at 122 ½. Old Dominion is favored by two points.

Both teams are riding nine-game winning streaks. Old Dominion, winners of the Colonial Athletic Association Conference Tournament, is 13-1 in its last 14 games.

The Monarchs, 27-6, finished the season with the highest Ratings Percentage Index of any CAA team, two of which also made it to the NCAA Tournament in regular-season league champion George Mason and Virginia Commonwealth who takes on USC in a First Four contest on Wednesday. It’s the first time in CAA history that three teams made the NCAA Tournament.

Led by 6-foot-9 forward Frank Hassell the Monarchs ranked seventh in the nation in rebounding at 40.2 per game. Hassell averages 15 points, shoots 56.1 percent from the field and pulls down 9.6 rebounds per game.

Old Dominion wins with defense and rebounding as Notre Dame found out the hard way in first-round action last season. The Irish lost to the Monarchs, 51-50, as 2 ½-point favorites.

The Monarchs should have a good fan turnout being around 3 ½ hours from the Verizon Center.

Old Dominion has the fourth stingiest defense in the land holding foes to 58.3 points per game. Offensively, though, Old Dominion is just 259th putting up 65.8 points per contest.

Butler is 29-1 when yielding fewer than 60 points. The Bulldogs had a tremendous run last season reaching the 2010 Championship Game, losing to Duke, 61-59, as seven-point ‘dogs. This will be the Bulldogs’ fifth consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance.

The Bulldogs, 23-9, aren’t as good as last season when they had Gordon Hayward, but they still are tough with forward Matt Howard and guard Shelvin Mack. Howard leads the Bulldogs in scoring at 16.7 points per game while Mack puts up 15.2 points per contest.

Butler tied for the best mark in the Horizon League with Cleveland State and Wisconsin-Milwaukee. The Bulldogs then won the conference tournament by beating Cleveland State, 76-68, as 4 ½-point favorites and downing Wisconsin-Milwaukee, which was playing at home, 59-44, in the title game as 3 ½-point favorites.

Brad Stevens’ Butler crew was just 6-5 after 11 games in conference, but then went on its nine-game winning streak. The Bulldogs are 10-1 ATS when playing at a neutral site. They have covered in their past four NCAA Tournament matchups.

The Bulldogs defeated Florida State, 67-64, as two-point underdogs at a neutral site, lost at Xavier, 51-49, pushing on the spread as two-point ‘dogs, lost to Duke at a neutral site, 82-70, covering as 14 ½-point underdogs and got buried by Louisville, 88-73, as 1 ½-point ‘dogs.

Those games all were played before Christmas before the Bulldogs started peaking.

In its marquee matchups, Old Dominion defeated Cleveland State, 74-63, as 5 ½-point home ‘chalk,’ lost at Missouri, 81-58, as eight-point ‘dogs, defeated Xavier, 67-58, on a neutral court as three-point favorites, nipped Clemson, 61-60, on a neutral floor as 1 ½-point ‘dogs and lost to Georgetown at home, 62-59, as a 'pick.'

Butler doesn’t own a victory against Xavier like Old Dominion does, but the Bulldogs were 3-0 versus Cleveland State covering all three times in winning by a combined 43 points.

The ‘under’ has cashed in five of Butler’s last six games. The Bulldogs have gone ‘under’ during their last five NCAA Tournament matchups. The ‘over’ has cashed in five of Old Dominion’s last six games.

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NCAA Tournament Odds: Temple meets Penn State

Brian Blessing and Kenny White preview the Tucson pod
that includes (7) Temple taking on (10) Penn State.
Penn State and Temple are two schools in eastern Pennsylvania separated by less than 200 miles, but they will travel across country to battle in the NCAA Tournament. The 10th-seeded Nittany Lions and seventh-seeded Owls have a history at the Big Dance, meeting during the Sweet 16 of the 2001 tournament.

Penn State hasn’t advanced to the NCAA Tournament since the 2001 campaign, while Temple is appearing in its fourth straight tournament. However, the Owls were eliminated in the first round each time and are searching for their first tournament win since 2001.

Temple upended the Nittany Lions in that 2001 encounter as a 4 ½-point favorite, 84-72, before losing to Michigan State in the Elite Eight. The combined 156 points went ‘over’ the 139-point closing total.

The Don Best screen has Temple 2 ½-point ‘chalk’ over Penn State, with the total set at 121. TNT will provide coverage of Thursday’s West Region contest beginning at 11:10 a.m. PT from Tucson’s McKale Center.

Penn State (19-14 straight up, 16-11-2 against the spread) advanced to the Big Ten Championship Game before losing to top-seed Ohio State as a 10-point neutral-court underdog, 71-60. The 131 points went ‘over’ the 127-point closing total, ending a string of three consecutive ‘under’ outings. The Nittany Lions were riding a four-game SU and ATS winning streak before facing the Buckeyes.

Penn State entered halftime trailing by six points, 29-23, and finished the game with deficits in rebounds (27-25) and assists (14-8). The Nittany Lions shot just 39 percent (22-of-56) from the field and 39 percent (7-of-18) from behind the arc, but they did convert all nine of their free throws.

Guard Talor Battle led the offense with 24 points and five rebounds, while forward Jeff Brooks added 19 and six. They were the only two Penn State players to reach double digits in scoring.

Temple (25-7 SU, 17-15 ATS) is one of three Atlantic 10 Conference schools playing in the NCAA Tournament, along with Richmond and Xavier. The Owls fell to the Spiders in the conference semifinals Saturday as a 3 ½-point neutral-court favorite, 58-54. The combined 112 points never seriously threatened the 126 ½-point closing total, ending a string of three straight ‘over’ outings.

Temple was on the short end of rebounding, 36-35, but the team did deliver more assists, 14-10. The Owls struggled by shooting 35 percent (20-of-57) from the field, and 28 percent (7-of-25) from 3-point land.

Guard Khalif Wyatt accounted for 15 points and six rebounds in the setback, while forward Lavoy Allen added 12 and 10. Guard Ramone Moore had 11 and six, while point guard Juan Fernandez provided seven, seven and 10 assists.

Temple has won the previous six meetings with Penn State SU, while the Nittany Lions are 4-2 ATS. The Owls won the latest encounter in 2009 as 7 ½-point home ‘chalk,’ 45-42, while the combined 87 points fell well below the 125 ½-point closing total.

Penn State forward Andrew Jones (mouth) is ‘probable’ versus the Owls according to the Don Best Sports injury report.

Temple forward Scootie Randall (foot) is ‘probable’ against the Nittany Lions. The Owls have seen the ‘under’ go 10-2 their past 12 neutral-site games. Temple is just 2-6 ATS its last eight games against Big Ten opponents.

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NCAA Tournament Odds: Wisconsin faces Belmont

Thursday's Southeast Region matchup between the
Badgers and Bruins is a clash in styles.
The fourth-seeded Wisconsin Badgers look to end a streak of tournament futility when they meet the 13th-seed Belmont Bruins on Thursday night.

Wisconsin is just a 4 ½-point favorite despite the disparity in seeds, with a total of 125 ½-points. CBS will have this Southeast Region matchup at 4:27 p.m. (PT) from Tucson, Arizona.

Fourth Seeds in March Madness are 82-22 straight-up (78.8 percent) against 13th seeds since 1985. Fourth seeds were 3-1 SU and 2-2 against the spread last year, with Wisconsin one of them (more below).

The Badgers (23-8 SU, 15-12 ATS) are ranked No. 16 in the latest AP poll and finished third (13-5 SU) in the Big Ten regular season behind Ohio State (16-2 SU) and Purdue (14-4 SU).

Wisconsin bowed out in its opening Big Ten Tournament game, 36-33 against Penn State as 7 ½-point favorites. That score is not a misprint and it was easily the lowest combined score in the tourney’s 14 year history.

The Badgers have lost their opening Big Ten tourney game the last three years, all as favorites. That tournament suffering extends to March Madness. Wisconsin is just 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS going back to the Stephen Curry and Davidson upset in the 2008 Sweet Sixteen.

Last year, Coach Bo Ryan’s team opened as 10 ½-point ‘chalk’ over Southern Conference Wofford and was lucky to survive, 53-49. The luck ran out against Ivy League Cornell the next game, an 87-69 drubbing as 4 ½-point favorites.

Ryan is considered a great coach, but is taking some heat for the postseason struggles. His guys play hard every night, especially at home where they’re 16-0 SU and 9-3 ATS this year. The problem is road and neutral site games (7-8 SU and 6-9 ATS).

The reality is Wisconsin is not very talented outside of first-team all-Big Ten Jordan Taylor (18.1 PPG, 4.7 APG) and Jon Leuer (18.6 PPG, 7.3 RPG). Keaton Nankivil (10 PPG, 4.4 RPG) is another upperclassman and a tough banger, but no one else scores more than 5.9 PPG.

Ryan is known for his slowdown offensive system and tough defense. The last game against Penn State was the perfect example. However, the Badgers ‘D’ let up 68.3 PPG over the final seven regular season games, compared to 58.3 PPG on the year (fifth nationally). The ‘over’ was 6-1 in those seven contests.

The Bruins (30-4 SU, 7-4 ATS) went 19-1 SU in the Atlantic Sun Conference regular season and ended any NCAA tournament suspense by winning the conference tourney over North Florida (87-46).

This small school from Nashville has sophomore guard Ian Clark as its leading scorer (12.4 PPG), but it’s a balanced effort with big men Mick Hedgepeth (10.6 PPG) and Scott Saunders (10 PPG) close behind. They’ll be needed to battle the Leuer and Nankivil tandem.

The Bruins went 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS in their first three March Madness appearances (2006-2008). They almost had one of the biggest upsets in history in 2008, losing 71-70 to second-seed Duke as 20-point ‘dogs.

Coach Rick Byrd plays a lot of guys and his team is scoring 80.4 PPG (11th nationally), while allowing 61.9 PPG (ranked 35th). That’s tops nationally in scoring margin (18.4 PPG).

Belmont is helped immensely by being second in the country in creating turnovers (19.2 per game). The problem is Wisconsin almost never turns it over, top in the nation at 7.4 per game.

The Bruins’ toughest games were at SEC Vanderbilt and Tennessee (twice). They lost 85-76 in the first meeting at Tennessee as 14-point dogs before a 66-65 defeat (no spread) in the second game. The Vandy contest was an 85-76 loss, also with no spread.

Wisconsin bench player Mike Bruesewitz is doubtful with a knee injury. That’s the only injury to report for either team.

This is the first meeting ever between the schools.

The victor will face the winner of fifth-seed Kansas State (minus 2 ½) and 12th-seed Utah State.

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NCAA Betting Odds: St. John’s, Gonzaga clash

The Southeast Region has one of the best first-round matchups Thursday night when the sixth-seed St. John’s Red Storm face the 11th-seed Gonzaga Bulldogs.

Bookmaker.com has St. John’s as 1 ½-point favorites with a total of 135 points. CBS will have the 6:45 p.m. (PT) tip-off from the Pepsi Center in Denver.

Sixth-seeds in March Madness are 71-33 straight-up (68.6 percent) against 11th seeds since 1985. They were just 2-2 SU and 1-2-1 against the spread last year.

The Bulldogs (24-9 SU, 16-12-1 ATS) are ranked outside the AP top-25 from the West Coast Conference. They tied the Saint Mary’s Gaels in the regular season (11-3 SU) before beating them in the conference tourney final (75-63).

Gonzaga is making it 13th straight NCAA tournament appearance, the 12th under coach Mark Few. His teams have made the Sweet Sixteen four times, the most recently in 2009. However, the 'Zags are 1-6 ATS (3-4 SU) in their last seven March Madness games.

The Bulldogs are riding a nine-game winning streak heading into Thursday (6-2 ATS). The ‘under’ is 7-3 in their last 10 games with totals, allowing 60.2 PPG compared to 65.1 PPG on the season.

Gonzaga has three scorers in double-digits with 6-foot-5 guard Steven Gray (13.8 PPG), seven-foot center Robert Sacre (12.5 PPG, 6.2 RPG) and 6-foot-7 forward Elias Harris (12.1 PPG). Harris has had a disappointing season overall after averaging 14.9 PPG last season as a freshman.

The Bulldogs have been energized recently by secondary players. Junior college transfer Marquise Carter is starting at guard now and averaging 12.3 PPG during this winning streak. Freshman point guard Davis Stockton (son of NBA great John Stockton) and forward Sam Dower are both making major bench contributions.

The Red Storm (21-11 SU, 15-16 ATS) are ranked 18th in the AP and making their first NCAA tourney appearance since 2002. First-year coach Steve Lavin has done a tremendous job infusing energy into the program, especially with a 12-6 SU (11-7 ATS) regular season mark in the tough Big East.

St. John’s didn’t fare as well in the conference tourney (0-2 ATS) despite playing at nearby Madison Square Garden. The first game was a fortunate 65-63 win over Rutgers. Poor refereeing aided the victory and the Red Storm didn’t come close to ‘covering’ as 10-point favorites.

The second game was a 79-73 loss to Syracuse as three-point underdogs. The 152 combined points scored went way ‘over’ the 133 ½-point total. The ‘over’ is 5-0 in St. John’s last five games.

Guard Dwight Hardy scored 22 points against Syracuse, but he’s come back down to Earth the last three games (17.7 PPG) after scoring 25.5 PPG during a 6-0 SU and ATS streak to end February.

St. John’s suffered a big blow last game when senior swingman D.J. Kennedy was lost for the year (knee injury). He’s the top rebounder (5.6 RPG) and third-leading scorer (10.4 PPG).

Sean Evans should start Thursday in his place and he’s played well lately. However, Kennedy is a huge emotional loss even for this veteran team and the Red Storm need several players to step up offensively and not rely on Hardy to bail them out.

The Red Storm do not have anyone who can match up height-wise with Sacre, but if they play physical as a team, then he shouldn’t be able to dominate too much.

This is the first meeting between the teams since 2001. Gonzaga won (65-58) and ‘covered’ that game in addition to a 2000 second-round NCAA tourney upset (82-76).

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NCAA Betting: Kansas Jayhawks face Boston Terriers

Kansas will presumably move on to face the winner of
the battle between UNLV and Illinois.
Is there any chance Kansas could be the first No. 1 seed to lose a first-round NCAA Tournament game since the current system began in 1985?

The 32-2 Jayhawks meet 16th-seed Boston University Friday at 3:50 p.m. PT at BOK Center in Tulsa, Okla., in the Southwest Regional.

Oddsmakers aren’t expecting a Boston miracle. The Jayhawks are 22 ½-point favorites, befitting their second-ranked status in both major polls. The ‘over/under’ is 136.

Nonetheless, it’s not inappropriate to mention some unpleasant Kansas history.

This is because the Jayhawks have a history of suffering huge upsets during the first round having lost to Bucknell as 14-point favorites in 2005 and to Bradley the following year as seven-point ‘chalk.’

None of the present Kansas players tasted those defeats, though, not even fifth-year senior Brady Morningstar.

Kansas is primed to make a deep run with the Morris twins – Marcus and Markieff – composing a formidable inside duo and a deep backcourt of Tyrel Reed, Tyshawn Taylor and Morningstar.

Marcus Morris averages 17.3 points and 7.2 rebounds per game, while Markieff Morris scores 13.2 points a game, shoots 60.1 percent from the floor and pulls down 8.2 rebounds.

The Morris twins are going to be very hard to handle for Boston University, which has an undersized frontcourt. Kansas was the fifth-highest scoring team in the nation at 82.4 points per game. The Jayhawks ranks first in field goal percentage making 51.4 percent of their shots.

The Terriers, who have never faced the Big 12 Conference champion Jayhawks, are 21-13. They won the America East Conference to earn an automatic bid to the tournament.

Boston University, coached by former Villanova assistant Patrick Chambers, is riding an 11-game winning streak. This is the first time in nine years the Terriers have made the tournament.

The Terriers feature their conference’s player of the year in 6-foot-5 swingman Jon Holland, a senior averaging 19 points and 5.7 rebounds per game. No doubt the Jayhawks will be paying close attention to Holland.

Boston University has won its last four games by margins of two points (in overtime), nine, six and two. The Terriers have benefited by shooting 116 foul shots during this span to their opponent’s 44. Even Duke doesn’t get such an outrageous free throw advantage.

The Terriers got past Stony Brook in their conference tournament championship game, 56-54, as a six-point favorite despite making just 31 percent of their shots from the field and having only two assists.

Holland helped the Terriers overcome a 15-point deficit by scoring 23 of his game-high 27 points in the second half. The Terriers are the only Boston-area school to make the field of 68.

The Terriers’ strength is a defense that ranks 16th yielding just 60.4 points per game and is ninth in field goal percentage limiting foes to 39 percent shooting from the floor.

Offensively, however, the Terriers rate 320th averaging 61 points per contest.

Even though their offense isn’t impressive, aside from Holland, the Terriers do have several trends going for them. They are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games. They are 17-5-1 ATS during their past 23 non-conference matchups, including 11-2 ATS at neutral site games.

Kansas is 14-1 in its last 15 games. The Jayhawks defeated Texas, 85-73, in the Big 12 Conference title game as 4 ½-point favorites at neutral site Kansas City this past Saturday. It was the Jayhawks’ fifth tournament title in six years.

Prior to the win and cover against Texas, the Jayhawks were 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games.

The ‘over’ has cashed in 11 of Kansas’ last 15 games, though the ‘under’ paid off in 10 of the Jayhawks’ past 13 NCAA Tournament games.

The ‘over’ has cashed in eight of Boston University’s last 10 non-league matchups.

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NBA Betting Preview: Chicago Bulls at Nets

Chicago and New Jersey have split two meetings with the Nets 2-0 ATS.
Bettors who have wagered on the Chicago Bulls this season have turned a pretty profit so far. The Central-Division-leading Bulls bring a league-leading 41-23-2 spread record and a seven-game winning streak into their Thursday night contest against a New Jersey Nets squad in the midst of a five-game winning streak.

Tip-off time from New Jersey’s Prudential Center is 4 p.m. (PT).

Chicago extended its winning streak to seven games with Wednesday’s 98-79 whipping of the Washington Wizards. The Bulls also covered as hefty 15 ½-point home favorites, marking their fourth straight pointspread success. It was also Chicago’s 12th consecutive victory at United Center.

The combined 187 points dipped below the 192-point closing total, leaving the ‘under’ 9-2 in Chicago’s last 11 games and 40-26 in the club’s first 66 overall endeavors.

The win moved the Bulls one-half game ahead of the Boston Celtics for the top spot in the Eastern Conference with 16 games left in the regular season.

Derrick Rose scored 23 points and Luol Deng added 20 points to lead the Bulls’ offense. Keith Bogans contributed a season-high 17 points thanks to five baskets from beyond the arc. In fact, the Bulls went 12-for-32 from downtown.

Chicago covered the big spread despite playing without Carlos Boozer (ankle) and Joakim Noah (flu). The Don Best Sports injury report lists Boozer as “doubtful” and Noah as “questionable.”

Defense has been big key to Chicago’s recent winning ways. The Bulls have yielded 86 points or fewer in nine of their last 10 outings and less than 80 points on five occasions.

The surge has lifted Chicago’s defense into first place in three important categories. The Bulls are yielding 91.1 PPG, while holding the opposition to 42.9 percent shooting from the field and 32.7 percent from beyond the three-point line.

It’s a good thing the Bulls have been stingy defensively, because their offense has been less than stellar.

Tom Thibodeau’s Bulls are scoring an average of 97.9 PPG (20th) and are shooting just 45.8 percent from the field (18th). Getting easy points at the free throw line has also been a problem, evidenced by the team shooting 73.4 percent (27th).

Though the New Jersey Nets own a dismal 22-43 ledger, they are currently on a five-game winning streak of their own.

The latest success occurred Monday when the Nets upset the Celtics as 5 ½-point home underdogs, 88-79. The win lifted New Jersey’s home ledger to 18-16 SU and 20-14 ATS.

The combined 167 points ducked well below the 187-point closing total, leaving the ‘under’ 33-31-1 in the Nets’ first 65 outings.

The five-game winning streak is New Jersey’s longest since the club won five straight from Dec. 28, 2007, to Jan. 5, 2008. It also ended a nine-game home losing streak to the Celtics and was the squad’s first home win over Boston since April 16, 2006.

The win pulled the Nets to within 5½ games of Indiana and Charlotte, who are tied for the eighth and final playoff spot in the East.

New Jersey and Chicago have split two meetings this season, but the Nets have covered the spread on each occasion.

The first matchup occurred on New Year’s Eve, with the Bulls registering a 90-81 victory as 10 ½-point home favorites. The combined 171 points dipped well ‘under’ the 187-point closing total.

Five days later, the Nets got their revenge with a 96-94 victory as five-point home underdogs. The Nets are now 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games against the Bulls.

The combined 190 points skipped above the 185 ½-point closing total, enabling the ‘over’ to improve to 9-4 in the last 13 series meetings.

Chicago concludes its quick two-game road trip Thursday at Indiana against the Pacers. New Jersey begins a two-game road excursion Friday against the Milwaukee Bucks.

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Flyers, Thrashers battle NHL odds in Atlanta

Atlanta pulled off a 5-4 overtime win in Philadelphia this past Saturday.
The Philadelphia Flyers and Atlanta Thrashers have had an odd history between them, and these two will renew ties in NHL betting action at Phillips Arena on Thursday. The puck drops in Hotlanta at 4:00 p.m. (PT) in a game that has crucial implications in the playoff race both at the top and the bottom of the picture in the Eastern Conference.

The Flyers are hanging on to the best record in the Eastern Conference, as they have 93 points through 69 games. That leaves them a point clear of the Washington Capitals for the top spot in the conference (though they do have two more games to play than the Caps this year). They're also three ahead of the Pittsburgh Penguins (and they have two games extra to play on the Pens as well).

Meanwhile on the other end of the spectrum, Atlanta is tied with two other teams at 70 points coming into NHL wagering action on Wednesday, and that leaves it six points out of the postseason picture. The Carolina Hurricanes are also in the middle with 74 points.

The Flyers don't have absolutely sparkling numbers this season, believe it or not. They don't have a shutout to their name all season long, and they rank either just inside or just outside of the Top 10 in basically every other defensive category.

Offensively, this is a team that has scored 3.2 GPG this year, which is down to No. 4 in the league from No. 1. The good news is there are a ton of players that can just explode at a moment's notice on this club.

Jeff Carter is the leader in goals with 32, but there are three other players that have scored at least 20 goals on the campaign. Claude Giroux is the leading scorer on the team with 65 points and is the top assist man with 43. Mike Richards also has 40 assists on the year, joining Giroux as two of the seven players with at least 27 assists on the year.

The defense for the Thrashers is going to be hard pressed to stop this bunch, as this is a unit that has really struggled for most of the season. Atlanta is averaging 3.1 GPG allowed on the campaign, which ranks No. 28 in the NHL. It is conceding 33.1 shots per game as well, which also ranks No. 28. The worst part of this team is the penalty kill, which ranks dead last in the league at 76.4 percent.

Offensively, we have to keep a close eye on Andrew Ladd who has 26 goals and 27 assists this year, and he leads the team with 53 total points. He has nine goals scored since February 13, a stretch of 13 games.

This is definitely a good news, bad news situation for the Thrashers in terms of the history of this series. Sure, the most recent history in this series has been great for them with a 5-1 record over the course of the last six, including winning 5-4 in OT at Philly just a few days ago.

Still, the Flyers have the long term advantage, going 16-3-1 in the last 20 clashes here in the Peach State, while they are 30-8-2 in the last 40 games overall in this series.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's Tampa Tips

March 16, 2011


The quadruple-header at the St. Pete Times Forum in Tampa starts Thursday afternoon when fifth-seeded West Virginia (20-11 straight up, 12-16 against the spread) takes on Clemson at 12:15 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

The Tigers earned the No. 12 seed by trouncing UAB 70-52 as 4 ½-point favorites in Tuesday’s First Four game in Dayton. Jerai Grant scored a career-high 22 points and Brad Brownell’s team raced out to a double-digit lead and never let the Blazers get closer than eight after the opening minutes.

Trailing 5-4 in the early going, Clemson (22-11 SU, 14-13-2 ATS) went on a 21-2 run thanks mainly to several buckets from Tanner Smith, who finished in double figures along with Milton Jennings and Devon Booker. In leading the school to its first NCAA Tournament win since 1997, Brownell surpassed the number of NCAA wins by his predecessor, Oliver Purnell.

The Tigers didn’t get to the airport for a flight to Tampa until well past midnight Eastern, less than 36 hours before their next game. “We'll go to the mandatory shootaround (on Wednesday) but certainly that will be the only physical thing that we do,'' Brownell told the Associated Press. “I'll have to watch film through the night, obviously.''

Bob Huggins’ team went to the Final Four last season before being eliminated by Duke. Prior to that, WVU upset top-seeded Kentucky in the Elite Eight round thanks to a career-high 17 points from Joe Mazzulla.

The Mountaineers went into last year’s tournament after cutting the nets down at MSG by winning the Big East Tourney. But this year they were sent home on Wednesday by Marquette, which rallied to beat WVU 67-61 as a 2 ½-point underdog.

WVU has a balanced scoring attack but doesn’t have as much depth as last year’s team, going just eight deep. Casey Mitchell averages a team-high 14.1 points per game, while Kevin Jones averages 13.1 points and 7.4 rebounds per game.

The ‘under’ is 18-10-1 overall for Clemson, cashing at a 10-3-1 clip in its last 14 games. As for the ‘Neers, they have seen the ‘under’ go 15-12 overall, 6-1 in their last seven outings.

As of early Wednesday morning, there wasn’t a line out yet for WVU-Clemson.

The second game will feature fourth-seeded Kentucky, the winner of the SEC Tournament, against Princeton, the Ivy League champion which beat Harvard in a one-game playoff played on Yale’s campus this past Saturday.

Most betting shops are listing Kentucky (25-8 SU, 13-14-1 ATS) as a 13-point favorite with a total of 131. Gamblers can back the Tigers to win outright for a plus-850 return (risk $100 to win $850).

John Calipari’s team has been on fire since losing in overtime at Arkansas on Feb. 23, winning six in a row while going 3-2-1 ATS. The Wildcats trounced a red-hot Florida team 70-54 in the finals of the SEC Tournament on Sunday at the Ga. Dome. Brandon Knight scored 17 points and dished out four assists, while Terrence Jones scored 16 points, grabbed seven rebounds and swatted away three blocked shots.

This will be the eighth time UK has been installed as a double-digit favorite. The ‘Cats are 4-4 ATS in such situations.

Kentucky has struggled away from Rupp Arena this year, going 2-6 both SU and ATS in eight SEC road games. On the bright side, however, Calipari’s bunch won three straight games on a neutral court in Atlanta this past weekend, not to mention neutral-floor wins over Washington and Oklahoma and a win at Louisville in non-conference play.

Princeton (25-6 SU, 15-12 ATS) played from behind against Harvard nearly the entire game yet had a chance to win with the ball on the baseline with 2.8 ticks remaining. Junior guard Doug Davis took the inbound pass and took two dribbles, gave a shot fake, and then drained a 15-footer from the left wing that beat the horn and ended a seven-year NCAA drought for the Tigers.

Sydney Johnson’s team has faced just two teams in the field, Duke and Bucknell. Princeton lost 97-60 at Cameron Indoor Stadium when Kyrie Irving was still in the lineup. The Tigers beat Bucknell 66-55 as 4 ½-point ‘chalk’ at a neutral site.

Princeton has been a double-digit underdog twice, failing to cover as a 23 ½-point ‘dog in the aforementioned defeat against the Blue Devils. But the Tigers took the money in a 68-62 loss at UCF as 11-point ‘dogs. They also won outright at Tulsa and at Siena when catching points.

The ‘under’ is 15-11-2 overall for UK, 4-1 in its last five games. On the flip side, the ‘over’ is 14-11 overall for Princeton, 5-2 in its last seven outings.

This game is expected to tip off at around 2:45 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

The first game of the evening session will come off the board at 6:50 p.m. Eastern when Florida (26-7 SU, 14-14-1 ATS) and UC-Santa Barbara collide. Most spots have the Gators listed as 12 ½-point favorites with a total of 128. The Gauchos are plus-700 on the money line (risk $100 to win $700).

Billy Donovan’s team earned the No. 2 seed thanks to winning the SEC regular-season championship and posting an 11-3 record against RPI Top 50 teams. UF posted a pair of quality wins against Tennessee and Vanderbilt at the SEC Tournament. In both games, the hot shooting of guards Kenny Boynton and Erving Walker helped the Gators explode past the Vols and Commodores to double-digit victories after trailing at halftime in both contests.

Boynton and Walker are the explosive scorers for UF, but senior forward Chandler Parsons earned SEC Player of the Year honors thanks to his versatile play. Parsons, along with fellow seniors Vernon Macklin and Alex Tyus, are still looking for the first NCAA Tournament win of their careers.

UF lost to BYU in double overtime of an epic first-round game last season. Boynton scored a team-high 26 points before fouling out in the second extra session. Parsons finished with 20 points, 10 rebounds and six assists, but he missed a clean look at the basket on a 12-foot shot at the end of regulation.

UCSB (18-13 SU, 14-15 ATS) won the Big West Tournament by winning three straight games both SU and ATS, including a 64-56 triumph over Long Beach St. as a 3 ½-point underdog in the finals. Orlando Johnson scored 23 points to pace the winners, while Jaime Serna added 14 points and eight rebounds.

Johnson went off in the Big West Tourney, scoring 32 and 30 points in the quarterfinals and semifinals, respectively. The transfer from Loyola-Marymount averages 21.1 points, 6.3 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game.

UF has been listed as a double-digit ‘chalk’ eight times, limping to an atrocious 1-7 spread record in those eight situations. Meanwhile, UCSB went 1-1 ATS in a pair of double-digit ‘dog spots. The Gauchos, who are 4-4 ATS in eight games as underdogs, lost 90-64 at San Diego St. as 14 ½-point puppies. In their other game as double-digit ‘dogs, they won outright at UNLV by a 68-62 score.

The ‘over’ had hit in seven straight UF games until its loss to Kentucky in the SEC Tourney finals. For the season, the Gators have watched the ‘over’ go 17-11 overall. Totals have been a complete wash in UCSB games (14-14), although we’ll mention a 4-2 run for the ‘under’ in its last six games.

The final game in Tampa will pit seventh-seeded UCLA from out of the Pac-10 against the Big Ten’s Michigan State. Most books are listing the Spartans as two-point favorites with a total of 125.

Michigan St. (19-14 SU, 11-20-1 ATS) had a disappointing campaign, starting the year in the top five only to have to scratch its way into the field with a couple of late-season victories. The Spartans stroked Purdue 74-56 as seven-point underdogs in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals. Who knows if they get ‘in’ without that victory?

UCLA (22-10 SU, 16-15-1 ATS) won 13 of its last 17 games, posting an 11-6 spread record in the process. But the Bruins hurt their seeding by losing to Oregon 76-59 as seven-point favorites in the Pac-10 Tourney quarterfinals.

Ben Howland’s team has five players that average at least 9.4 PPG. Reeves Nelson averages team-highs in scoring (13.9 PPG) and rebounding (8.9 RPG). Malcolm Lee is a combo guard who scores 13.0 points per game.

MSU is led by senior guard Kalin Lucas, who averages a team-high 17.2 PPG. The team’s best low-post threat is Draymond Green, who averages 12.3 points and 8.6 boards per contest.

The ‘under’ is 20-12 overall for MSU, 7-2 in its last nine games. The ‘under’ is 17-14 overall for the Bruins, 8-3 in their last 11 outings.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's D.C. Tips

March 16, 2011


We’re done with the foolishness of the play-in games. Now we can focus on sweating out our favorite teams and the cash we have staked in our office brackets in earnest. The NCAA tournament gets underway in the pod sites. Let’s look at all the happenings at the Verizon Center in Washington, D.C.

It all starts at 12:40 p.m. EDT on TruTV (DirecTV 246), when eighth-seeded Old Dominion (24-9 straight up, 14-14-2 ATS) takes on Butler.

The Monarchs earned their spot in the big dance on the heels of winning the Colonial Athletic Association tourney with a 70-65 win over Virginia Commonwealth as 4 ½-point favorites. Frank Hassell pushed ODU over the top with 22 points and nine boards.

Bettors have enjoyed backing ODU during its recent play. It’s hard not to see why as they’re on a 9-0 SU and 7-1-1 ATS run in its last nine games. The ‘over’ is 6-2-1 in that stretch.

Butler (21-9 SU, 15-13-2 ATS) is going to have a tough time recreating the magic they had from last year’s national title game run. But they started this year with a noticeable hangover after losing to Duke last April, and then Gordon Hayward to the NBA.

The Bulldogs have rebounded when it mattered most though by closing out the year with a 9-0 SU and 5-3-1 ATS mark to win the Horizon League championship. They dumped Wisconsin-Milwaukee 59-44 at U.S. Cellular Arena as 4 ½-point favorites on March 8. Matt Howard helped pace Butler with 18 points and five rebounds. Meanwhile, his teammates helped keep the Panthers to just 30 percent shooting from the field and turn the ball over 16 times.

Most sportsbooks have opened up the Monarchs as two-point favorites with a total of 122 ½. You can take Butler to win this test for a plus-110 (risk $100 to win $110) return.

There isn’t much history between these two teams, but it is all about the Bulldogs. Butler has won and covered the spread in both of its meetings against ODU, which happened in the first round of the NCAA tourney in 1999 and 2007.

The Bulldogs have only been underdogs six times this season, but they’ve been worth backing. Butler has gone 3-3 SU and 4-1-1 ATS in those contests, with the ‘over’ going 5-1.

Old Dominion is 12-2 SU and 8-5-1 ATS in its 14 games as a single-digit “chalk,” with the ‘over’ going 9-3-1.

The second battle of the day has the top-seed Panthers taking on UNC-Asheville (20--13 SU, 3-1-1 ATS) at 3:10 p.m. EDT on TruTV.

The oddsmakers are siding strong with Jamie Dixon’s crew by making them a 17 ½-point favorite with a total of 135. For those of you looking to piss your money away can grab the Bulldogs for the historic upset at plus-2000 (risk $100 to win $2000).

Pittsburgh (27-5 SU, 14-13 ATS) held off the Fighting Irish to win the regular season crown in the Big East. But the Panthers fell to the double-bye and a charmed UConn side 76-74 as 5 ½-point favorites on March 10. Ashton Gibbs led the Cats with 27 points and four assists, while Brad Wanamaker had 17 points and five boards. Yet they couldn’t figure a way to stop Kemba Walker from scoring 24 points, including his dramatic buzzer-beater.

UNC-Asheville makes it to the second round of the tourney after a strong 81-77 overtime win over Arkansas-Little Rock in the play-in game in Dayton on Tuesday night. Matt Dickey and J.P. Primm came to play for the Bulldogs with 22 points each. Dickey scored 14 of UNCA’s last 18 points in regulation to force the extra session. Not bad for a team that lead for just 51 seconds during the regulation. There wasn’t much time to celebrate the win since they were literally in the air on a chartered flight a couple of hours after the win for this contest.

The win against the Trojans was UNC-Asheville’s first triumph over a tournament team in three tries this season. Pittsburgh hasn’t been that great a wager this season as a double-digit favorite, going 9-1 SU and 5-5 ATS. The ‘under’ is 5-4 in that stretch.

We open up the evening session with Connecticut (26-9 SU, 18-11 ATS) facing off with Bucknell at 7:20 p.m. EDT on TNT.

Most sportsbooks have listed the Huskies as 10 ½-point favorites with a total of 132 ½. The Bison can be had at plus-450 (risk $100 to win $450) to reach the second round.

UConn wasn’t expected to win the Big East tournament last week at Madison Square Garden, having lost three of its last five games. But credit Jim Calhoun’s squad with winning five games in five days to cut down the nets by beating Louisville 69-66 as a three-point pup in overtime last Saturday. Walker had just 19 points for Connecticut to cement his MVP performance at the tourney.

Bucknell (25-8 SU, 3-3 ATS) enters the NCAA tournament as the class of the Patriot League, winning both the regular season and the conference tournament to gain immediate access. The Bison punched their ticket with a strong 72-57 win over Lafayette as nine-point favorites last Friday. Mike Muscala led the way for Bucknell with 18 points and four rebounds. Plus, they held Lafayette to just 22 percent shooting from the three-point line.

The Bison have a bit of a reputation of slaying giants in the big dance. They beat Arkansas in the first round of the ’06 tourney. And the year before, Bucknell stunned the third-seeded Jayhawks in Oklahoma City. Plus, they are 2-3 SU and 0-1 ATS versus teams that are in this year’s tournament field.

UConn closed the year with a 5-0 SU and ATS run because of the epic run through the Big East tournament. But this is a group that went 4-0 SU and 3-1 as a double-digit favorite this season.

Our final game at the Verizon Center pits sixth-seeded Cincinnati from the Big East against the Big XII’s Missouri (22-9 SU, 12-15-1 ATS) at 9:50 p.m. EDT on TNT. The betting shops have this game too close to call by making it a pick ‘em.

Cincinnati (25-8 SU, 15-13 ATS) had a fairly good campaign, but all people can look at is the last game. That’s not good for the Bearcats as they got beat down bad by Notre Dame 89-51 as 2 ½-point underdogs in the Big East tournament. They would have been in the big dance regardless of that loss because of good wins against UConn, Georgetown, Louisville and St. John’s. Yet the high seeding is directly in tune with playing in a conference that everyone falls over to credit.

The Tigers have to thank the good lord that they’re in the tournament. Mizzou is one of the coldest teams making it into the NCAA tournament, having gone 1-4 SU and 0-4-1 ATS. Missouri’s last defeat coming to the Aggies as a three-point favorite 86-71 on March 10. Perhaps it’s because Mike Anderson’s team doesn’t play a lick of defense, ranking 265th with 71.4 points allowed per game.

The ‘over’ is 15-13 for the year for Missouri. However, they’ve seen the ‘under’ hit 5-4 in its last nine matches. Cincy has seen the ‘under’ go 6-3 in its final nine tests of the season.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's Tucson Tips

March 16, 2011

The Tucson pod doesn't exactly have the biggest names playing at the McKale Center on Thursday, but three of the four games involve pointspreads of less than five points, which should make for some intriguing action. With the tipoffs starting a little later out in Arizona, the first game features a pair of teams from the Keystone State entering this tournament as at-large qualifiers.

(7) Temple vs. (10) Penn State - 2:10 PM EST

The Owls and Nittany Lions start the action in Tucson as these intrastate rivals meet for the first time since Temple's 45-42 victory over Penn State on December 5, 2009. These clubs make up the bottom part of the West Regional, which moves onto the Honda Center in Anaheim for the Sweet 16 next week.

Temple finished second in the Atlantic-10 with a 14-2 conference mark before getting tripped up by fellow NCAA tournament participant Richmond, 58-54 in the second round of the conference tourney. The Owls started the season at 8-4 ATS, including outright victories over Georgia, Maryland, and Georgetown. Temple finished the regular season at 7-9 ATS inside of A-10 play, while splitting a pair of games in the conference tournament.

Penn State was able to solidify a berth in the Big Dance thanks to a strong showing in the Big 10 tournament. The Nittany Lions knocked off Indiana, Wisconsin, and Michigan State before falling short against the eventual top-seed in the NCAA Tournament with a 71-60 setback to Ohio State in the conference title game. Penn State is 7-2-1 ATS the last 10 games, while finishing the season at 10-4 ATS the last 14 opportunities as an underdog.

The last time these teams met in the tournament was 10 years ago when Temple eliminated Penn State in the Sweet 16 by an 84-72 count as 4 ½-point favorites (also last instance when the Nittany Lions were in the Big Dance). The Owls look to advance past the first round (now the second round) for the first time since 2001 as Temple has been bounced in the opening round each of the last three seasons (Cornell turned the trick last March in a 78-65 victory).

Temple is listed as 2 ½-point favorites at most spots with the total set at 121 ½.

(2) San Diego State vs. (15) Northern Colorado - 4:40 PM EST

There is plenty of regional interest in this matchup with two teams that aren't traveling terribly far for their second round showdown. The Aztecs finished the season with five straight wins, including a trouncing of conference rival BYU to claim the Mountain West title and automatic berth. San Diego State is facing a team that is headed to its first ever NCAA Tournament, while the Aztecs try to avoid becoming the fifth No. 2 seed to lose to a No. 15 seed in the history of the Big Dance.

Northern Colorado is in only their fourth season of Division I postseason eligibility after winning the Big Sky tournament championship over Montana. The Bears are led by guard Devon Beitzel, who claimed the Big Sky MVP as he led the conference in scoring with 21.4 ppg. UNC compiled a 4-7-1 ATS mark the final 12 games of the season, while cashing the 'over' in its last six lined games. The Bears faced two tournament teams during the regular season by losing at Arizona and Illinois, while cashing as 20 ½-point 'dogs in a 10-point defeat to the Illini.

San Diego State has won 12 of its last 13 games, including a three-game sweep of the Mountain West tournament. Steve Fisher's club dropped just two games all season, both coming to BYU in the regular season. The Aztecs went 9-9 ATS as double-digit favorites, with a 3-3 ATS ledger against teams from outside their conference. Overall, SDSU finished 11th in the country with a 20-12 ATS mark, the highest ranking of any second seed or better in the tournament.

The Aztecs have fallen short in each of their last three opportunities in the Big Dance with losses to Tennessee (2010), Indiana (2006), and Illinois (2002). Fisher's squad was squeezed in each of their last two trips, losing by four to the Hoosiers and by just three last March to the Volunteers.

San Diego State is listed as 15 ½-point favorites, while the total is set at 130.

(4) Wisconsin vs. (13) Belmont - 7:25 PM EST

The second Big 10 team to take the court in Tucson is Bo Ryan's Wisconsin Badgers, who scored a paltry 33 points in a three-point loss to Penn State in the conference quarterfinals. The Badgers look to bounce back against the regular season and tournament champions of the Atlantic Sun, the 30-4 Belmont Bruins. This contest is the first of two games within the Southeast Regional, with the winner facing whichever team comes out of the Kansas State/Utah State tilt.

Wisconsin is known for a team that likes to play a grind-it-out style, but the Badgers cashed the 'over' in seven of the final 10 games of the season. All eight losses for the Badgers came against teams in the NCAA Tournament (Penn State twice, Ohio State, Purdue, Illinois, Michigan State, Notre Dame, and UNLV), with just three of those defeats coming in a favored role. Wisconsin compiled an 8-5 ATS ledger as single-digit 'chalk,' but cashed just three of their final nine games of the season.

Belmont returns to the Big Dance for the first time since almost pulling a monster upset against Duke in 2008. The Blue Devils edged the Bruins, 71-70, but Belmont easily cashed tickets as 20-point underdogs in their third-ever tournament appearance at the time. The Bruins closed conference play with a 19-1 record, while dispatching of North Florida in the A-Sun title game, 87-46 as 18-point favorites. Belmont faced only one tournament team this season, losing at Tennessee in the opener as 14-point underdogs, 85-76.

Since making the Elite Eight in 2005, the Badgers have not made it out of the first weekend in four of the previous five tournaments. Wisconsin has won its opener each of the last four seasons in the Big Dance, including a 53-49 victory over Wofford last March as 10 ½-point favorites.

The Badgers are listed as five-point 'chalk' with the total set at 126.

(5) Kansas State vs. (12) Utah State - 9:55 EST

The final game of the night in Tucson pits a pair of teams that have saved their best basketball for the end. Despite losing in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 tournament, K-State has won eight of 10 games to conclude the season at 22-10. Utah State is riding an eight-game winning streak after losing just three games this season, including one in WAC play.

Frank Martin's Wildcats look to duplicate last season's Elite Eight appearance in which K-State was knocked off by national runner-up Butler, 63-56. K-State looked to be on the tournament outs with a 2-5 record to start Big 12 play, but an 8-1 run over the final nine games placed the 'Cats in fourth place of the conference. The Wildcats have redeemed themselves from an ATS standpoint following a slow start by covering five of the final seven games, including wins over Kansas, Texas, and Missouri.

The Aggies won 14 of 17 games played away from Logan this season, including a Bracket Busters victory at tournament snub St. Mary's, 75-65 as five-point underdogs. Utah State concluded the season at 6-3-1 ATS in lined games, while covering two of three games as 'dogs, as the Aggies cashed in a six-point defeat at BYU in November. The Aggies failed to beat a team in the field of 68, while its biggest loss this season came at Georgetown in a 68-51 setback in December.

Kansas State is listed as a 2 ½-point favorite, while the total is set at 128 ½. All four games played in Tucson will be televised nationally on TNT.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's Denver Tips

March 16, 2011


Fresh off its run to the Big East Tournament finals, Louisville (25-9 straight up, 19-11-1 against the spread) is a No. 4 seed that’ll square off against Morehead State at Pepsi Center in Denver on Thursday afternoon at 1:40 p.m. Eastern.

Most betting shops are listing the Cardinals as 9 ½-point favorites with a total of 131. Gamblers can take the Eagles to win outright for a plus-425 return (risk $100 to win $425).

Rick Pitino’s team has won six of its last eight games, posting a 7-1 spread record in the process. The lone non-cover came in last Saturday’s 69-66 loss to UConn as a three-point ‘chalk.’ In the losing effort, Preston Knowles had a team-high 18 points.

Morehead St. (24-9 SU, 17-11 ATS) won the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament by capturing an 80-73 win over Tennessee Tech as a nine-point favorite. Demonte Harper was the catalyst, nearly recording a triple-double with 27 points, 11 rebounds and eight assists. Kenneth Faried also enjoyed a stellar performance, tallying 24 points, 15 boards and five blocked shots.

Faried is a legitimate NBA prospect who averages 17.6 points and 14.5 rebounds per game. He has posted double-doubles in eight consecutive games.

Morehead St. went on the road and faced Florida and Ohio St. in a three-day stretch during November. The Eagles lost both games but did hook up their backers as double-digit underdogs. They dropped a 61-55 decision at UF and lost 64-45 at Ohio St. as 19 ½-point ‘dogs.

Faried scored 20 points and pulled down 18 rebounds against the Gators, while going for 15 and 12 against the Buckeyes. Perhaps most importantly, we should note that Faried held UF’s Vernon Macklin to just six points and limited OSU’s Jared Sullinger to eight points.

The ‘under’ is 18-13 overall for Louisville, 7-2 in its last nine games. On the flip side, the ‘over’ is 16-14 overall for the Eagles, 5-1 in their last six outings.

The second game of the afternoon session will feature fifth-seeded Vanderbilt (23-10 SU, 15-12-2 ATS) going up against Richmond, the winner of the Atlantic-10 Tournament this past weekend. Most spots are listing the Commodores as three-point favorites with a total of 135. The Spiders are available on the money line for a plus-130 payout (risk $100 to win $130).

Vandy has lost in the first round of the tournament in its last two appearances, falling to Siena three seasons ago and losing on a buzzer-beater against Murray St. last year. The ‘Dores are hoping to avoid a similar fate by riding the play of their two studs, John Jenkins (19.5 PPG) and Jeffery Taylor (15.1 PPG, 5.6 RPG).

Richmond (27-7 SU, 19-12 ATS) has won seven consecutive games both SU and ATS, including Sunday’s 67-54 win over Dayton as a four-point favorite in the finals of the A-10 Tourney. Kevin Anderson scored a game-high 23 points for the Spiders, who knocked off Rhode Island and Temple before blasting the Flyers.

Richmond has been an underdog five times this season, compiling a 4-1 spread record in those situations. Vandy has gone 3-6-2 ATS in 11 single-digit ‘chalk’ spots.

When Chris Mooney’s squad took on Saint Mary’s in the first round of the Big Dance last year, it suffered an 80-71 defeat as a one-point favorite.

The ‘under’ has cashed in six straight Richmond games and eight of its last nine. For the season, the Spiders have watched the ‘under’ go 18-12 overall. Meanwhile, the ‘over’ is 16-13 overall for Vandy.

The evening session in the Mile High City will begin at 7:15 p.m. Eastern when BYU (30-4 SU, 14-16 ATS) and Wofford collide. The Cougars are favored by 8 ½ at most books with the total at 147 ½. Gamblers can back the Terriers to win outright for a generous return in the plus-300 range (risk $100 to win $300).

BYU is led by All-American senior guard Jimmer Fredette, who led the nation in scoring with a 28.5 PPG average. Fredette led the Cougars to a double-overtime win over Florida in the first round of last year’s tourney by scoring a game-high 39 points. They would go down in the second round against Kansas State, however.

BYU had the look of a potential No. 1 seed until starting forward Brandon Davies was suspended for the rest of the season for violating the school’s honor code by admitting to having pre-marital sex with his girlfriend. Davies, who was averaging 11.1 points and 6.2 rebounds per game, has been out for the last five games.

Dave Rose’s squad has won three of those five contests, going 2-3 ATS. BYU advanced to the finals of the Mountain West Conference Tourney, but it couldn’t beat San Diego St. for a third time. Instead, the Aztecs exacted a measure of revenge by thumping the Cougars by a 72-54 count.

Wofford (21-12 SU, 17-15 ATS) beat a very good College of Charleston team to win the SoCon Tourney and get into the tournament for a second straight season. The Terriers took down Bobby Cremins’ squad 77-67 for their eighth consecutive victory.

Cameron Rundles scored a team-high 21 points, while Noah Dahlman added 20 points and nine rebounds. Dahlman is averaging 20.0 PPG this year.

Wofford took the cash in a 53-49 loss to Wisconsin as 10 ½-point ‘dogs in the first round last year. Dahlman was one of just two Terriers who scored in double figures with 10 points.

The nightcap game is one of the more interesting matchups of the first round: St. John’s vs. Gonzaga. Most spots are listing the Red Storm as a one-point favorite with a total of 135.

Steve Lavin’s team will be playing without one of its best players in senior D.J. Kennedy, who tore his ACL in a loss to Syracuse in the Big East Tournament. Kennedy was averaging 10.4 points and 5.6 rebounds per game.

St. John’s season began with a game against a WCC power, as the Johnnies went out West and lost a 76-71 decision at Saint Mary’s as 3 ½-point underdogs. (This game will forever live in infamy in terms of my gambling career, as it was probably the worst loss on a total I’ve ever had. Too long a story for all the details, but I’ll assure you that a foul-fest has never made a gorgeous ‘under’ look so bad.)

It took time for this Red Storm squad to come around, but it certainly did so starting with a 93-78 beatdown of Duke at MSG back on Jan. 30. Since then, St. John’s has won 10 of 13 games with six of the victories coming to teams in the NCAA field.

Likewise, Gonzaga (24-9 SU, 16-12-1 ATS) didn’t get it together until the latter stages of the season. In fact, the Bulldogs were – at one point – in serious danger of missing the NCAA Tournament for the first time during Mark Few’s sustained tenure of excellence.

But the ‘Zags are rolling as they come into this event with a nine-game winning streak. Few’s bunch won the WCC Tourney by beating Saint Mary’s 75-63 as a two-point favorite.

Steven Gray led a balanced attack against the Gaels with 15 points and seven rebounds. Robert Sacre added 12 points, eight boards and four blocked shots.

The ‘under’ has been an extremely lucrative investment in Gonzaga games this year, going 19-9 overall. St. John’s, on the other hand, has seen the ‘over’ go 16-14-1 overall.

[StarDust Bum]

Kentucky favored by 13 over Princeton


#13 seed PRINCETON TIGERS (25-6)

vs. #4 seed KENTUCKY WILDCATS (25-8)


NCAA Tournament – Second Round
Tip-off: Thursday, 2:45 p.m. EDT – Tampa, FL
Line: Kentucky -13, Total: 130.5

Kentucky looks for its seventh consecutive victory when it plays Princeton in the second round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday afternoon in Tampa.

The Wildcats have won eight of their last nine games, including their 27th SEC Tournament championship with a 70-54 win over Florida on Sunday. Kentucky's defense held the Gators to just 38.6% from the field (22-of-57) while forcing Florida into 14 turnovers, which UK converted into 20 points. The Wildcats averaged an SEC-low 10.7 turnovers per game this season, which ranks 11th in the nation. They turned the ball over just six times versus the Gators. Brandon Knight (17.5 PPG, 4.2 APG, 38.7% three-pointers) led Kentucky with a game-high 17 points, while Terrence Jones (16.5 PPG, 8.9 RPG) added 16. The Wildcats expect Doron Lamb (13.0 PPG, 47.2% three-pointers), who sprained his left ankle against Alabama in the SEC Tournament and came off the bench against Florida, to be in the starting lineup on Thursday. Kentucky scores 76.4 PPG and has scored at least 70 points in four of its six games during the winning streak.

Princeton earned the Ivy League’s automatic NCAA bid after winning a one-game playoff against Harvard on Saturday. Douglas Davis (11.9 PPG, 39.5% three-pointers) hit the game-winner as time expired in the Tigers' 63-62 win over the Crimson. Davis finished with 15 points, as Princeton erased an eight-point second half deficit. The Tigers won despite shooting just 41.8% (23-of-55) from the floor, while allowing Harvard to connect on 51.1% FG (24-of-47). Princeton has lost only two games since December, at Brown, 75-65, and at Harvard, 79-67. Four players average double-figures in scoring, led by Kareem Maddox’s 13.9 PPG (56.5 FG%, 7.1 RPG) and Ian Hummer’s 13.9 PPG (55.7 FG%, 6.7 RPG).

Kentucky is 4-1 in tourney games played in Tampa and has won 18 of its previous 19 first games. The Wildcats are facing an Ivy League team in the Big Dance for the second straight season. They defeated Cornell, 62-45, last season in the Sweet 16. The Tigers last played in the tournament in 2004, and their most recent tourney victory came in 1998 against UNLV. Princeton and Kentucky have met only three times, with the Wildcats owning a 2-1 edge in the series. But the last meeting between the two schools took place in 1977. Kentucky is 6-3 ATS in non-conference games this year and 5-2 ATS in neutral-site games, while Princeton is just 2-9 ATS following an ATS victory. The Wildcats are too fast and strong for the Tigers to hang with them for more than a half. Expect Kentucky to pull away and cover the large spread. This highly-rated FoxSheets trend also likes the Wildcats to win big.

Play On - A favorite (KENTUCKY) - a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against a good defensive team (63-67 PPG), after allowing 55 points or less. (99-49 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.9%, +45.1 units. Rating = 3*).

This highly-rated FoxSheets trend sides with the Over for Thursday’s game.

Play Over - Neutral court teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (PRINCETON) - after having won 4 of their last 5 games, in a post-season tournament game. (45-17 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.6%, +26.3 units. Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

MSU-UCLA meet in matchup of prolific programs


#10 seed MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (19-14)

vs. #7 seed UCLA BRUINS (22-10)


NCAA Tournament – Second Round
Tip-off: Thursday, 9:20 p.m. EDT – Tampa, FL
Line: Michigan State -1, Total: 125

Michigan State and UCLA, two teams who have had plenty of success in the NCAA Tournament, meet in the second round on Thursday night in Tampa.

The Spartans and Bruins have combined for 26 Final Four appearances, and one of the schools has appeared in each of the past six Final Fours. Michigan State will appear in its 14th straight NCAA Tournament on Thursday, the third longest active streak in the nation. The Spartans are 6-4 in their past 10 games, but they've played well defensively during that stretch, limiting teams to 61.4 PPG and allowing opponents to shoot just 40.4% from the field and 30.8% from three-point range. Michigan State has been involved in its fair share of close games this season. Thirteen of MSU's 33 games have been decided by five points or less, with the Spartans going 9-4 in those contests. Michigan State is led by Kalin Lucas (17.2 PPG), who had 19.0 PPG in three Big Ten tournament contests, including a 30-point effort in a 74-56 victory over Purdue on March 11.

UCLA dropped a 76-59 decision to Oregon in the Pac-10 Tournament quarterfinals, its second loss in the past three games. Tyler Honeycutt (12.6 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 34.5% three-pointers) scored 19 points against the Ducks, but the Bruins never got the deficit within single-digits in the second half. UCLA shot only 35.2% from the field (19-of-54), and leading scorer Reeves Nelson (13.9 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 57.4 FG%) had only seven points on 3-of-9 shooting. Second-leading scorer Malcolm Lee (13.0 PPG) is expected to play on Thursday despite a small cartilage tear in his left knee. Lee injured the knee at the end of regulation in the 58-54 overtime win at Washington State on March 5, but he did play against the Ducks and had six points and four boards in 28 minutes. Like the Spartans, the Bruins have found success in close games, finishing 13-4 in contests decided by nine points or less. And while UCLA averaged 70.0 PPG (137th in the nation), its defense allowed only 65.7 PPG.

Michigan State owns a 19-5 record in its first game of the tournament. The Spartans are also 2-0 in the NCAA Tournament in Tampa and are 15-7 in postseason action over the past four years. UCLA leads the all-time series with Michigan State, 5-2, but they've never met in the Big Dance. The Bruins are 32-11 in their first game of the NCAA Tournament and have won their first game in their last four trips. UCLA is just 7-7 ATS in non-home games, including 1-3 ATS at a neutral site. Although Michigan State is a horrific 6-16 ATS as a favorite this season, head coach Tom Izzo always has his team ready to play in the NCAAs, and the Spartans have the superior depth and experience to outlast the Bruins. These two FoxSheets coaching trends support picking Michigan State to win on Thursday.

Tom Izzo is 29-16 ATS (64.4%, +11.4 Units) in a NCAA tournament games as the coach of MICHIGAN STATE. The average score was MICHIGAN STATE 70.5, OPPONENT 65.1 - (Rating = 1*).

Izzo is 73-55 ATS (57.0%, +12.5 Units) after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread as the coach of MICHIGAN STATE. The average score was MICHIGAN STATE 71.5, OPPONENT 62.6 - (Rating = 1*).

[StarDust Bum]

St. John's looks to end tourney win drought


#11 seed GONZAGA BULLDOGS (19-14)

vs. #6 seed ST. JOHN’S RED STORM (21-11)


NCAA Tournament – Second Round
Tip-off: Thursday, 9:45 p.m. EDT – Denver, CO
Line: St. John’s -1, Total: 135

Gonzaga versus St. John’s is a matchup of two teams with two distinctly different NCAA histories, recently speaking. The Bulldogs have been to each and every NCAA party since 1999, dancing its way from tournament Cinderella in the late 90’s to perennial attendees today. If the ’Zags have been the annual party people, St. John’s on the other hand has been a tournament home body. The Johnnies, longtime strangers to all this madness nonsense, will be making their first tournament appearance on Thursday night since 2002, when they lost in the first round to Wisconsin. The closest thing that these two teams may have in common is a little bit of history. In 2000 Gonzaga and St. John’s met in the second round of the West Regional. Gonzaga (#10 seed) defeated the Big East champion Red Storm (#2 seed) that year, 82-76. 2000 was also the last year that the Red Storm won a tournament game. Now Steve Lavin has the program back to respectability, and will be trying to add onto an already impressive ‘10-11 resume that saw the school go from 17 wins to 21 (and counting?) and from 6-12 in league play last season, to 12-6 this year.

You don’t make the tournament 13 straight times without getting hot at the right time of year, so it shouldn’t’ be surprising to see Gonzaga entering the tournament winners of nine straight and 11 of its last 12. Those numbers become even more impressive when you consider where Gonzaga was on December 11, when the ‘Zags were sitting at 4-5 following an 83-79 loss to Notre Dame in South Bend. Shortly thereafter, quality out-of-conference wins over Baylor, Xavier and Oklahoma State got things back on track for Mark Few’s team, and from there it was a race to wrest control of the West Coast Conference back away from last year’s champ, Saint Mary’s. That battle was waged throughout the season, with the two teams splitting games, winning on each other’s home court. It came down to the conference title game, and the ‘Zags were up to the task, defeating the Gaels 75-63. Gonzaga is led by big 6-foot-5 senior guard Steven Gray (13.8 PPG, 3.8 APG, 1.7 SPG), who leads the team in scoring, assists, steals, collisions and floor burns. Gray gets a big assist from 7-footer junior Robert Sacre (12.5 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 1.9 BPG) the team’s leading rebounder, and shot blocker. Sacre (pronounced Sock-cray) could pose a particular headache on the interior for the Red Storm’s big men, whose tallest players seeing regular playing time are only 6-foot-8. Sophomore Elias Harris (12.1 PPG, 5.9 RPG) is the third player scoring in double figures for the Bulldogs. Gonzaga’s guard play down the stretch was also impressive. Marquise Carter (5.9 PPG) averaged 14.5 PPG, made 13-of-15 FT, and committed just three total turnovers in the semifinal and championship games of the conference tournament. David Stockton provided key minutes off the bench subbing for Carter and Gray.

The Red Storm were sitting at 13-9, and 5-5 in conference play following a seven-point February 5 loss in Los Angeles to UCLA. They closed the regular season with a flurry, winning seven of their final eight games, including home victories over ranked teams Connecticut and Pittsburgh, and a road win over ranked Villanova. The Johnnies defeated five ranked teams in Madison Square Garden during the regular season, with the big head-turner being their 93-78 blowout of Duke on Jan. 30. First team All-Big East player Dwight Hardy (18.0 PPG) led the team in scoring, seemingly saving his best for the biggest games. He scored 34 against ‘Nova, 33 versus UConn and 26 against Duke. Fellow senior Justin Brownlee (12.2 PPG, 5.3 RPG) is second on the team in scoring and rebounding. The concern for St. John’s entering this game isn’t who will take the court, but who will not. Leading rebounder, and number two assist man, senior D.J. Kennedy (10.4 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 2.0 APG), tore his right ACL in the Big East Tournament loss last Thursday to Syracuse, ending his season and career at the school in heartbreaking fashion. Kennedy also led the team in steals with 56. Kennedy’s versatility as a passer, scorer, and defender will be sorely missed, especially on the interior, as Lavin’s crew will have to contain an energetic 7-footer without its top player on the glass. With Gonzaga averaging 37.4 rebounds per game to the Red Storm’s 32.8, the Johnnies have no choice but to outwork the ‘Zags in the paint. If they can’t, the Bulldogs could bulldoze the Red Storm en route to the second round.

Gonzaga is 12-8 ATS after an SU win, while St. John’s is 4-6 ATS after an SU loss. The Red Storm are also 6-10 ATS in non-home games, while Gonzaga is 8-6 ATS outside of their home gym. The FoxSheets provide two more reasons to expect Gonzaga to win on Thursday.

GONZAGA is 11-3 ATS (78.6%, +7.7 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 2 seasons. The average score was GONZAGA 73.3, OPPONENT 66.1 - (Rating = 1*).

GONZAGA is 17-6 ATS (73.9%, +10.4 Units) in road games after 2 straight games making 78% of their free throws or better since 1997. The average score was GONZAGA 80.6, OPPONENT 74.1 - (Rating = 1*).

This four-star FoxSheets trend advises a play on the Under.

GONZAGA is 11-1 UNDER (91.7%, +9.9 Units) versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots this season. The average score was GONZAGA 69.5, OPPONENT 67.0 - (Rating = 4*).

[StarDust Bum]

Georgia braces for Washington's Isaiah Thomas


ATHENS, Ga. (AP) - Gerald Robinson says playing against Southeastern Conference point guards should prepare him for his NCAA tournament challenge against Washington's Isaiah Thomas.

The problem is Robinson and his teammates on Wednesday couldn't name a guard in the SEC who compares with the Huskies' 5-foot-9 star.

Georgia coach Mark Fox said Thomas is ``unique'' and even rises above comparisons with another 5-foot-9 former Washington star, Nate Robinson, who is with the NBA's Oklahoma City Thunder.

``No, he's better than Nate,'' Fox said firmly. ``He's a better player than Nate, and Nate is obviously good enough to be a pro, but Isaiah Thomas is terrific.''

The Bulldogs practiced in Athens on Wednesday before leaving for their bus trip to Charlotte, N.C.

Georgia (21-11) is the No. 10 seed in the East Regional. Washington (23-10) is the No. 7 seed. The winner could face No. 2 seed North Carolina on Sunday.

Robinson and Dustin Ware are expected to lead Georgia's defensive efforts against Washington in the game on Friday night.

Thomas averaged 19.7 points and 10 assists in three games as Washington won the Pac-10 tournament last week. His signature moment came when he made an 18-footer at the end of overtime against Arizona to give Washington the championship.

Thomas' game-winner received strong play on ESPN and YouTube, even making its way onto the TV screens and laptops of Georgia players on the other side of the nation.

``I didn't get to catch it (live), but I have seen it on highlights over and over again,'' Robinson said. ``He's a great player who made a great play for his team.''

Added Ware: ``It didn't surprise me at all because he's done that kind of thing throughout his career.''

Thomas, a junior who is averaging 16.8 points for the season, leads a balanced Washington attack that averages 83.5 points.

``Washington is extremely talented, a great offensive team,'' said Fox, who began his career as a graduate assistant and assistant coach at Washington.

``They're very complete offensively and very explosive,'' Fox said. ``They combine that with very good defense, also.''

Fox said that Thomas is not the Bulldogs' only concern. Senior forward Matt Bryan-Amaning averages 15.5 points and 8.1 rebounds.

``No, they have too many guys who can score,'' Fox said. ``This is a very complete offensive team. Isaiah is a great player, but they have a lot of good pieces around him that make for a great team.''

Thomas is the key for the Huskies. He is one of only two players to start every game for Washington, and he played 123 of a possible 125 minutes in the conference tournament.

``He's one of those guys you've got to put all sets of eyes on,'' Ware said. ``He's a really good player who can do a lot of different things. He really, really drives that team and makes them better. He knows how to get it done.''

Travis Leslie may be Georgia's only player who has faced Thomas. He said he was 16 when he played on a Georgia Stars 17-and-under AAU team against a team led by Thomas.

``He's just a great player,'' Leslie said. ``He goes to the basket. He can shoot. He's an overall good player.''

And about that AAU game? Leslie said he couldn't remember the name of Thomas' team, but he remembered the result.

``He's the reason they won,'' Leslie said.