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It's easy to look at Alabama State's 17-17 record and deceptively low RPI and dismiss them as a throwaway team that got lucky and won a third-tier conference tourney.
It's important to note, though, that they were picked to finish 2nd in the SWAC in both preseason polls that I hung onto, and that of the 5 starters (all healthy), 3 of them missed 10 or more games. In January, they finally had their core guys healthy and playing together, and in their final 12 games, they went 11-1, easily taking care of every team in their conference.
UTSA has a better record, and a stronger RPI (by about 60 spots), but the Southland conference lacked any strong teams (nobody had fewer than 6 conference losses).
Alabama St. won the SWAC tourney as the best team, and UTSA won the Southland because somebody had to -- one team has played unbeatable ball for the last month, while the other team went 1-5 in their final 6 conference road games.
Playing in Dayton is no advantage to either side, but UTSA is clearly weaker away from home, and Alabama St. looks like they could have been a 17-2 sort of conference team if the group they have now had been healthy early.
UTSA has a huge star in point guard Devin Gibson, who leads the team in both scoring and rebounding, while Alabama State's team stats reveal a much more balanced approach. Butler and Washington are both strong defenders at the guard position for Alabama State, who used a stifling defense to give up just 57pts/game in their conference tourney sweep, and I think they can mitigate the damage from Gibson.
Alabama State PLUS 3 large
Good luck all.
It's important to note, though, that they were picked to finish 2nd in the SWAC in both preseason polls that I hung onto, and that of the 5 starters (all healthy), 3 of them missed 10 or more games. In January, they finally had their core guys healthy and playing together, and in their final 12 games, they went 11-1, easily taking care of every team in their conference.
UTSA has a better record, and a stronger RPI (by about 60 spots), but the Southland conference lacked any strong teams (nobody had fewer than 6 conference losses).
Alabama St. won the SWAC tourney as the best team, and UTSA won the Southland because somebody had to -- one team has played unbeatable ball for the last month, while the other team went 1-5 in their final 6 conference road games.
Playing in Dayton is no advantage to either side, but UTSA is clearly weaker away from home, and Alabama St. looks like they could have been a 17-2 sort of conference team if the group they have now had been healthy early.
UTSA has a huge star in point guard Devin Gibson, who leads the team in both scoring and rebounding, while Alabama State's team stats reveal a much more balanced approach. Butler and Washington are both strong defenders at the guard position for Alabama State, who used a stifling defense to give up just 57pts/game in their conference tourney sweep, and I think they can mitigate the damage from Gibson.
Alabama State PLUS 3 large
Good luck all.
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