The Bum's Tuesday's Best Bets MLB- NBA-NHL-NCAAB !

[StarDust Bum]

NBA odds still favor Los Angeles Lakers out west

The Spurs have the best record in the NBA but trail the Lakers on the futures front.
The Western Conference standings are very tightly packed with several teams that could be legitimate title contenders. That includes the Los Angeles Lakers, two-time defending league champs who are looking for their fourth trophy in five seasons.

Here is a brief rundown of the NBA odds for the major players in the pursuit of the 2010-11 Western Conference Championship.

Los Angeles Lakers (-120)
The champs might still be the champs until they are beaten, but it's going to be a heck of a lot harder for LA to win the West if it finishes as the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference. Sure, there is no way that the Lakers are losing this division lead, but they enter Monday a half-game behind the Mavericks for the No. 2 spot, and they're just four up on the Thunder for No. 4.

Still, when it's playoff time, it's Lake Show time, and we wouldn't want to be going against Kobe Bryant and company come April and May.

San Antonio Spurs (+170)
We still don't totally understand what more the Spurs need to do to become the favorites to win the Western Conference. They've got 54 wins, including a number of victories against some of the best teams in the league. Yes, they were just beaten down by LA on their home court, but it happens from time to time. One game doesn't make the season.

The road to the NBA Finals will go through San Antonio though, and that will make this team really, really scary in the second season.

Dallas Mavericks (+600)
With Dirk Nowitzki in the lineup, the Mavs have been one of the best teams in the league. This is a fantastic price for a team that really has the potential to win it all this year.

Dallas has smacked around some of the best in the biz, especially on the road where the Mavericks are 23-9 this year, tied for the best mark in the league.

Oklahoma City Thunder (+1200)
The Thunder are absolutely under-appreciated right now as well. Nate Robinson has finally made his Oklahoma City debut and Kendrick Perkins' first game in a Thunder uniform should be any day now. When that happens, this team really could take off.

The experience that was acquired last year in the playoffs was invaluable for this team, and there is a great chance that these 12/1 odds could turn out to be golden.

Portland Trail Blazers (+3500)
The East Coast swing really didn't end well for the Blazers, but when you look at the makeup of this team this year, Portland could be in line to pull off an upset or two.

Bringing Gerald Wallace, Rudy Fernandez and Brandon Roy off of the bench does arguably make this unit the best in the league. Though the starting five could be better, LaMarcus Aldridge, Wesley Matthews and Nicolas Batum are legitimate studs.

Denver Nuggets (+6000)
Little did we know that the Nuggets would be able to make the postseason this year, but that's exactly what has happened. Denver would be the No. 5 seed in the playoffs if they started today, and could still win the Northwest Division.

Things are only going to get better when Danilo Gallinari gets back into the fold. Raymond Felton and Wilson Chandler have made some great contributions to the team. Is it possible that this team is better without Chauncey Billups and Carmelo Anthony? Don't be surprised if the answer is yes.

[StarDust Bum]

Dallas Mavericks at Trail Blazers in NBA betting clash

The ’over’ has cashed nine of the last 12 Dallas Mavericks road games.
The NBA regular season is quickly coming to a close, and there is a possible playoff preview on Tuesday’s schedule.

Dallas (47-19 straight up, 35-29-2 against the spread) is currently the second seed in the Western Conference, and visits a Portland squad (37-29 SU, 32-31-3 ATS) that ranks seventh. These two teams would meet in the first round of the playoffs if the regular season ended today.

Dallas is searching for some consistency after alternating SU wins and losses its last six games. The Mavericks continued that trend with Saturday’s setback to the Los Angeles Lakers as a one-point home underdog, 96-91. The combined 187 points failed to topple the 194-point closing total. Dallas is now just 1-5 ATS its past six games.

The Mavericks finished the contest with advantages in rebounding (48-43) and assists (21-20), but they trailed the Lakers in points in the paint (56-38). Dallas finished the game by shooting 43 percent (37-of-86) from the field, and 25 percent (4-of-16) from behind the arc.

Small forward Shawn Marion accounted for 25 points and 12 rebounds in the loss, while power forward Dirk Nowitzki had 25, 10 and six assists. Shooting guard Jason Terry was the only other player to reach double digits in scoring with 13.

Portland enters this contest mired in a two-game SU and ATS losing streak to conclude a four-game East Coast road trip. The Trail Blazers fell to Atlanta Saturday as one-point road ‘chalk,’ 91-82, while the combined 173 points went ‘under’ the 181-point closing total. The ‘over’ had cashed the previous two outings.

The Blazers were in control of the game before getting outscored in the third period, 27-16. Portland trailed the Hawks in rebounding (40-34) and points in the paint (56-28), and finished the game by shooting 35 percent (27-of-77) from the field and 32 percent (7-of-22) from 3-point land.

Power forward LaMarcus Aldridge posted 22 points, six rebounds and seven assists in the setback, while guard Wesley Matthews had 19. Guard Brandon Roy provided 16, while forward Gerald Wallace had five and 12.

Dallas has won both home matchups this season with Portland SU, while splitting ATS. The Mavericks prevailed Dec. 15 as a 6 ½-point home favorite, 103-98, and Jan. 4 as 2 ½-point home ‘chalk,’ 84-81.

The ‘under’ is 5-2 the previous seven games in this series. The underdog is 10-4 ATS the last 14 matchups between these teams.

Dallas forward Peja Stojakovic (back injury) is ‘doubtful’ versus the Trail Blazers. The Mavericks conclude a brief two-day, two-game West Coast road trip with Wednesday’s game at Golden State. Dallas has seen the ‘over’ go 9-3 its last 12 road games.

Portland forward Nicolas Batum (ankle) is ‘questionable’ against the Mavericks. The Trail Blazers continue a three-game homestand against Cleveland and Philadelphia. Portland has seen the ‘under’ go 7-3 the past 10 matchups versus Southwest Division opponents.

Tuesday’s contest is scheduled to start at 7:00 p.m. PT from Portland’s Rose Garden.

[StarDust Bum]

NHL Odds: Capitals visit Montreal Canadiens

Both of this season’s meetings between the Caps and Habs went ’under.’
Eight is great, but nine would be fine. That might be the thought process Tuesday night when the Washington Capitals attempt to extend their eight-game winning streak by traveling to Montreal for an Eastern Conference showdown with the equally hot Canadiens. The puck drops at 4:00 p.m. (PT).

Washington forward Mike Knuble scored with 1:09 remaining in overtime during Sunday’s nationally televised contest against the defending champion Chicago Blackhawks to give his club a 4-3 victory.

The eighth straight win moved the Capitals one point behind the Philadelphia Flyers for the best record in the Eastern Conference. It also moved the Caps 20 games above .500 for the first time this season with a ledger of 40-20-5-5. That marks Washington’s fourth straight 40-win season, a club record.

The winning streak is Washington’s longest since they set a franchise record with 14 straight victories from Jan. 13 to Feb. 7, 2010.

Defense and timely goals have been the key parts of Washington's streak. The Capitals have allowed a measly 12 goals during the eight-game winning streak.

Rookie goalie Braden Holtby has provided the Capitals with a boost. Holtby replaced an injured Michal Neuvirth after the first period in Tampa Bay on March 7. He won that game, plus the next three.

Holtby, who has yielded just four goals in 11 periods since replacing Neuvirth, made 27 stops against the Blackhawks.

The combined seven goals in Sunday’s game skipped ‘over’ the 5 ½-goal, ending Washington’s string of seven straight ‘under’ games. Nevertheless, the ‘under’ is a league-leading 51-18-1 in the Caps’ first 70 overall encounters.

Bruce Boudreau’s troops rank 22nd on offense, scoring an average of just 2.7 goals per game. However, they are fourth defensively, allowing 2.4 GPG. Most of that fine defensive work has occurred on the penalty kill where the Caps rank third with an 85.7 percent success rate.

The Montreal Canadiens have also been hot lately, winning seven of their last eight outings. That includes Saturday’s 3-0 victory at Pittsburgh as 125 road underdogs. The combined three goals dipped below the five-goal closing total, leaving the ‘under’ 39-21-9 in Montreal’s first 69 overall outings.

The recent hot streak has moved the Habs two points behind the first-place Boston Bruins in the Northeast Division.

Carey Price stopped all 26 Pittsburgh shots to register his eighth shutout and raise his record to 33-22-4-2. He has a 2.29 GAA and a .924 save percentage.

Price’s eighth shutout is the most by a Canadiens goalie since Ken Dryden had 10 in 1976-77. The 23-year-old Price moved into 12th place on Montreal’s all-time list for goaltending wins with 93, passing Gump Worsley and moving to within 13 victories of 11th-ranked Rogie Vachon.

The Canadiens are a sparkling 21-8-3-3 on their home ice despite outscoring the opposition by an average of just 2.9 to 2.3.

Montreal and Washington have split two games this season, with both contests dipping ‘under’ the closing total. That is not unusual, as the ‘under’ has cashed in the last five series meetings.

The first matchup occurred on Dec. 28, with the Caps notching a 3-0 shutout win as 165 home favorites. Both teams failed on the power play, with Washington getting eight chances to Montreal’s five. The Caps outshot the Habs, 30-25, with backup goalie Semyon Varlamov getting the shutout.

Montreal got its revenge during the Feb. 1 rematch with a 3-2 overtime victory as a 155 road underdog. The Habs won despite going 0-for-6 with the man advantage, leaving them 0-for-11 in the two meetings against the Caps. Washington was 1-for-3 on the power play, but got outshot 38-29.

Washington continues its six-game road excursion Wednesday by traveling to Detroit for a meeting with the Red Wings. Montreal stays home for a Thursday contest against the Tampa Bay Lightning.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAA Tournament Odds: Top seeds ready for run

A trip to Houston is the ultimate goal for this year’s four No. 1 seeds.
A No. 1 seed has won March Madness the last four years and nine of the last 12. That has fans of the Ohio State Buckeyes, Kansas Jayhawks, Pittsburgh Panthers and Duke Blue Devils dreaming of a national title.

Bodog.com has the four top seeds this year as the tournament favorites. Kansas (4/1) is the slim leader followed closely by Duke (17/4), Ohio State (5/1) and Pittsburgh (15/2).

A No. 1 seed has never lost an opening round game (104-0 straight-up) since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985.

Ohio State Buckeyes (32-2 SU, 16-15 against the spread)

Top seed overall Ohio State will open in nearby Cleveland on Friday against the winner of Alabama State and Texas-San Antonio. That is a play-in game.

The Buckeyes last won the NCAA Tournament in 1960 with John Havlicek, Jerry Lucas and then-player Bobby Knight. Current coach Thad Matta made the title game in 2007 with freshman center Greg Oden before losing to Florida (84-75).

This year’s team also relies heavily on a freshman big man in Jared Sullinger (17.2 PPG, 10.1 RPG). Another freshman, Aaron Craft, plays a lot of point guard off the bench. The rest of the starting lineup is upperclassmen, but the real star is Sullinger. This is also not a deep team, playing six-seven guys.

The Buckeyes’ only two losses this year came at Wisconsin and Purdue, two very tough places to play. Those schools were a combined 32-0 SU and 19-6 ATS at home during the 2010-11 campaign.

Ohio State’s East Region is very difficult with North Carolina as a No. 2 seed and Kentucky as a No. 4. Each is loaded with young talent. The Tar Heels would be a very tough matchup inside with the frontcourt of Harrison Barnes, Tyler Zeller and John Henson.

Duke Blue Devils (30-4 SU, 19-14 ATS)

Duke is a 22 ½-point favorite over Hampton on Friday. The defending national champions needed a win over North Carolina (75-58) in the ACC Tournament final to get this top seed. Coach Mike Krzyzewski is looking for his fifth national championship overall.

Guard Nolan Smith (21.3 PPG) may be the best player in the country. Kyle Singler (17.1 PPG) hasn’t been as consistent as he would like, but he was the Final Four MVP last year and is capable of carrying the team.

The big news is that freshman point guard Kyrie Irving may return from his toe injury. That would really change the tournament odds. He last played on December 4, with Duke looking dominant in non conference play (8-0 SU).

Duke’s West Region looks very winnable with San Diego State as the No. 2 seed, the Connecticut Huskies as the No. 3 and Texas as the No. 4. The Huskies are dangerous, but are they emotionally spent after winning five games in five days in the Big East Tournament? Texas looked dangerous a few weeks ago, but finished 4-4 SU and ATS.

Kansas Jayhawks (32-2 SU, 16-15-1 ATS)

Kansas won the national title in 2008 over Memphis under current coach Bill Self. The Jayhawks will start things off Friday from Tulsa against Boston University as 22 ½-point favorites.

Kansas has won eight straight games including the Big 12 Tournament final over Texas (85-73). Six players scored in double-digits led by guard Tyshawn Taylor with 20. He was back starting for the first time since his two-game suspension last month.

Self’s squad is unique with its two leading scorers inside guys in brothers Marcus Morris (17.3 PPG) and Markieff Morris (13.6 PPG). This is a well-balanced team with Tyrel Reed, Thomas Robinson and Brady Morningstar the supporting cast.

This Southwest Region will be challenging with No. 2 Notre Dame very close to being a top seed. Purdue doesn’t look too dangerous as a No. 3, but No. 4 Louisville and Rick Pitino is a very tough potential matchup in the Sweet Sixteen.

Pittsburgh Panthers (27-5 SU, 14-13 ATS)

Pittsburgh awaits the winner of the play-in game between UNC Asheville and Arkansas-Little Rock. The Panthers are trying to make their first Final Four since 1941. Coach Jamie Dixon needs to change their perception of an underachieving team come tournament time.

Pittsburgh has been battle tested in the tough Big East that has 11 tournament teams. It got upset by Connecticut 76-74 in the conference tournament as 5 ½-point favorites.

This is a very mature team with five starting upperclassmen. Junior guard Ashton Gibbs is the leading scorer (16.7 PPG), but he’s not a true superstar like Duke’s Smith or Ohio State’s Sullinger.

Pittsburgh’s gets a huge break in the Southeast Region as No. 2 Florida is seeded way too high. No. 3 BYU has Jimmer Fredette (28.5 PPG), but is just 3-2 SU since losing Brandon Davies. No. 4 seed Wisconsin is built more for the regular season and is not likely a real threat.

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
03/14/11 6-*5-*1 54.55% +*485 Detail
03/13/11 3-*5-*0 37.50% -*960 Detail
03/12/11 4-*4-*0 50.00% +*80 Detail
03/11/11 6-*2-*2 75.00% +*2365 Detail
03/10/11 7-*2-*0 77.78% +*2715 Detail
03/09/11 6-*5-*0 54.55% +*425 Detail
03/07/11 4-*6-*0 40.00% -*1135 Detail
03/06/11 5-*5-*0 50.00% +*45 Detail
03/05/11 3-*7-*0 30.00% -*1720 Detail
03/04/11 9-*3-*0 75.00% +*3135 Detail
03/03/11 7-*4-*1 63.64% +*1750 Detail
03/02/11 7-*5-*0 58.33% +*770 Detail
Totals 67-*53-*4 55.83% +7955

Tuesday, March 15

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Atlanta - 1:05 PM ET Atlanta +107 500
St. Louis -

Boston - 1:05 PM ET Detroit -113 500
Detroit -

Florida - 1:05 PM ET Tampa Bay -127 500
Tampa Bay -

Houston - 1:05 PM ET Baltimore -124 500
Baltimore -

Philadelphia - 1:05 PM ET Philadelphia -113 500
Toronto -

LA Angels - 4:05 PM ET LA Angels +102 500
San Diego -

Milwaukee - 4:05 PM ET Milwaukee +102 500
Cleveland -

Texas - 4:05 PM ET Texas +105 500
LA Dodgers -

Washington - 7:10 PM ET Washington +107 500
NY Mets -

San Francisco - 9:40 PM ET San Francisco +102 500
Arizona -

[StarDust Bum]

NBATuesday, March 15

Game Score Status Pick Amount

New York - 7:00 PM ET New York -5 500
Indiana - Over 216 500

Milwaukee - 7:00 PM ET Milwaukee +5.5 500
Atlanta - Under 173.5 500

Washington - 8:00 PM ET Chicago -16 500
Chicago - Under 192 500

Dallas - 10:00 PM ET Dallas -1.5 500
Portland - Over 190 500



----------------------------------------------------------

NHLTuesday, March 15

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Atlanta - 7:00 PM ET New Jersey -185 500
New Jersey - Under 5 500

NY Islanders - 7:00 PM ET NY Islanders +150 500
NY Rangers - Over 5.5 500

Boston - 7:00 PM ET Columbus +123 500
Columbus - Under 5.5 500

Washington - 7:00 PM ET Washington -101 500
Montreal - Over 5 500

Carolina - 7:30 PM ET Carolina +128 500
Buffalo - Over 5.5 500

Pittsburgh - 7:30 PM ET Pittsburgh -125 500
Ottawa - Under 5 500

Philadelphia - 7:30 PM ET Philadelphia -154 500
Florida - Over 5.5 500

Los Angeles - 8:00 PM ET Nashville -111 500
Nashville - Over 5 500

San Jose - 8:30 PM ET San Jose +112 500
Dallas - Over 5.5 500

Phoenix - 9:30 PM ET Phoenix +123 500
Calgary - Under 5.5 500



-----------------------------------------------------------


NCAAB Tuesday, March 15

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Arkansas-Little Rock - 6:30 PM ET N.C. Asheville -4 500
N.C. Asheville - Over 130.5 500

Vermont - 7:00 PM ET Vermont +10 500
Cleveland St. - Under 131 500

Coastal Carolina - 7:00 PM ET Alabama -12 500
Alabama - Under 126.5 500

Ohio - 7:00 PM ET Marshall -6.5 500
Marshall - Over 146.5 500

Furman - 7:00 PM ET Furman +4.5 500
East Tennessee St. - Over 126.5 500

James Madison - 7:00 PM ET Davidson -2.5 500
Davidson - Under 142.500

Dayton - 7:00 PM ET Dayton +5.5 500
Charleston - Over 142.5 500

Harvard - 7:30 PM ET Harvard +5 500
Oklahoma St. - Over 133 500

Murray St. - 8:00 PM ET Murray St. +8 500
Missouri St. - Over 127 500

Jacksonville - 8:00 PM ET Jacksonville +8 500
East Carolina - Over 131.5 500

Rider - 8:00 PM ET Rider +6.5 500
Northern Iowa - Over 136 500

Hofstra - 8:00 PM ET Hofstra +2.5 500
Evansville - Over 140.5 500

San Jose St. - 8:00 PM ET Creighton -10.5 500
Creighton - Over 135.5 500

Clemson - 9:00 PM ET UAB +4 500
UAB - Over 122.5 500

Fairfield - 9:00 PM ET Fairfield +6.5 500
Colorado St. - Over 129 500

Texas-El Paso - 9:00 PM ET New Mexico -6.5 500
New Mexico - Under 135.5 500

North Dakota - 9:00 PM ET North Dakota +14.5 500 ( POD )
Air Force - Over 125 500

Austin Peay - 9:00 PM ET Austin Peay +9 500
Boise St. - Over 142.5 500

Boston College - 9:00 PM ET McNeese St. +5.5 500
McNeese St. - Under 142 500

Northern Arizona - 10:00 PM ET Northern Arizona +4.5 500
Santa Clara - Over 139.5 500

Kent St. - 11:00 PM ET Kent St. +11.5 500
St. Mary's - Over 143.5 500

Portland - 11:59 PM ET Hawaii -1.5 500
Hawaii - Under 136 500

[StarDust Bum]

UNCA and UALR get 2011 NCAA Tournament underway


#16 seed UNC-ASHEVILLE BULLDOGS (19-13)

#16 seed ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK TROJANS (19-16)


NCAA Tournament – First Round
Tip-off: Tuesday, 6:30 p.m. EDT – Dayton, OH
Line: UNC-Asheville -4, Total: 130

If the late Jim Valvano was right, then Tuesday’s start to the NCAA Tournament in Dayton will offer a cautionary note for at least two teams. The former coach of the 1983 NCAA champion N.C. State Wolfpack, and a man who lived both sides of the upset scenario in NCAA Tournament play, liked to point out what teams need to be aware of this time of year. One of his favorite red flags: “gotta watch out for those teams with a hyphen.” If that is indeed the case, then the matchup between Arkansas-Little Rock (hyphenated) versus UNC-Asheville (hyphenated) will pit the immovable force versus the irresistible object. And if they think beating each other will be like moving a mountain, wait until the winner of this game faces Gary McGhee and No. 1 seed Pittsburgh.

UNC-Asheville made it to this tournament by defeating Coastal Carolina in the Big South championship game, 60-47. They are likely in this First Four game because no one expected the third place team in the Big South to win the league’s tournament, thus giving them longshot status in the big dance. The Bulldogs were prohibitive underdogs to Coastal Carolina. At 16-2 in league play, the Chanticleers finished a full five games ahead of the 11-7 Bulldogs in the league standings. UNCA was led in the title game by junior guard Chris Stephenson with 14 points, and sophomore guard Jaron Lane who added 13 points off the bench. The impressive point here is that the ‘Dogs pulled off the victory with their two top scorers having off games. Leading scorer Matt Dickey (15.3 PPG) only scored 12 points on 3-for-10 shooting, but did bury a clutch three-pointer down the stretch to help seal the deal. J.P. Primm (14.4 PPG) only had seven points on the day. UNC-Asheville only shot 2-for-11 from beyond the arc, and as a team hit the long ball at a 33% clip, not terrible, but not spectacular either. Still, the Bulldogs’ 74.2 PPG were good enough for 49th-best in Division I, and at 45.5% from the floor, that FG Pct. easily placed the team in the top third among Div. I schools in shooting. UNC-Asheville’s season began to turn around on February 22, when sitting at 13-13 and 8-7 in conference, they defeated Coastal Carolina on a Matt Dickey three ball with :01 left on the clock, 61-58. The win moved them above .500, started the team on its present six-game winning streak, and that brings us to where we are Tuesday. With its March 5 victory, UNC-Asheville became the first team in this year of the expanded field to clinch an automatic NCAA berth. Tuesday they hope to be the first team moving on to the second round. Like Arkansas-Little Rock, the Bulldogs are one of 15 teams in this year’s tournament with at least 13 losses on their resume, but sometimes it’s not how many you win, but when you win them.

Arkansas-Little Rock from the Sun Belt is the long shot that needed a long three-point shot to make it this far. The Trojans (19-16, 7-9) had just the 8th-best conference mark in the conference, but muscled their way into the championship game with three straight wins. Once in the final, Solomon Bozeman, the Sun Belt player of the year, buried a clutch three-pointer with 1.5 seconds remaining to send the Trojans marching into the NCAA Tournament. The victory capped off a late comeback that saw the team overcome a seven-point deficit with 1:42 to play. Bozeman (16.5 PPG, 46.4% three-point FG) wrapped up a dazzling tournament performance (some might call it Kemba Walker-esque) by averaging 22.0 PPG over the four games and willing his team to a title. The Trojans struggle to generate offense (68.0 PPG, 201st in nation), exemplified by the fact that Bozeman is the only player on the team scoring in double figures. Ranked 249th in rebounding (33.5 RPG), 259th in assists (11.8 APG) and 241st in shooting (42.6% FG) its easy to presume that the Trojans do not rebound, share, or shoot the ball very well. Maybe that’s true, but this is March, and if it was strictly about numbers, Arkansas-Little Rock would be home watching this game on TV. Instead, UALR enters the contest with a big heart, a hot player, and a hyphen. What more could an underdog ask for?

Although Sun Belt teams are 8-4 ATS in the past 12 NCAA Tournament games, the conference is just 3-9 SU over this span. The Bulldogs are the better team offensively and have more depth should their shooters go cold. The pick here is UNC-Asheville to win and cover the spread, and this FoxSheets trend also advises to pick the Bulldogs.

Play On - A favorite (UNC-ASHEVILLE) - a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against a good defensive team (63-67 PPG) after 15+ games, after allowing 55 points or less.(61-25 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.9%, +33.5 units. Rating = 3*).

Although Big South teams are 10-3 Under the total in the past 12 years of the NCAA Tournament, this highly-rated FoxSheets trend sides with the Over.

Play Over - Neutral court teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (ARK-LITTLE ROCK) - after having won 4 of their last 5 games, in a post-season tournament game. (45-17 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.6%, +26.3 units. Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

UAB-Clemson square off in First Four


#12 seed ALABAMA-BIRMINGHAM BLAZERS (22-8)

#12 seed CLEMSON TIGERS (21-11)


NCAA Tournament – First Round
Tip-off: Tuesday, 9:00 p.m. EDT – Dayton, OH
Line: Clemson -5, Total: 121.5

If criticism and mockery could fuel the psyche like caffeine, the University of Alabama-Birmingham Blazers would be so wired up they wouldn’t fall asleep until at least the Sweet 16 round. When UAB heard its name announced during Sunday night’s selection show, it sent shockwaves throughout the college basketball spectrum, and one collective question directed at the selection committee: Why? While UAB (22-8, 12-4) did win the regular season crown in C-USA while accumulating an RPI of 31, the Blazers were also knocked out of their own conference tourney in the opening round by an East Carolina team that finished tied for seventh in the league. Head coach Mike Davis wasn’t sure what all the post-selection fuss was all about. He was adamant about his team’s right to be included in the field of 68. The fact does remain though, UAB has only one win over a team that is in the tournament. That came against Virginia Commonwealth (speaking of controversial choices). The great thing about all of these arguments and opinions is that UAB now has a chance to prove itself where all teams want to prove themselves: on the basketball floor. Tuesday night, that is where the Blazers will be, on the floor, possibly with a chip on their shoulder, taking on the Clemson Tigers, another team that’s looking for a little more of the Aretha Franklin treatment (r-e-s-p-e-c-t) from hoop fans.

Brad Brownell had a rather anxious weekend culminating with the wait to see his team’s name called on Selection Sunday, and starting with a gut wrenching overtime defeat to North Carolina in the semifinals of the ACC Tournament. The Tigers led the Heels by 14 in the first half and seven in the final four minutes of regulation, but were victimized by Carolina freshman Harrison Barnes, who set a tournament freshman scoring record by burying 40 points on the day. He also tied former Tar Heel Tyler Hansbrough by becoming the only other freshman to score 40 in any game. Barnes’ heroics spoiled a Clemson performance in which it shot 50% as a team from the floor (33-of-66) and 50% from beyond the arc (12-of-24). It was the first time all year that Clemson shot at least 50% from the field and lost the game. Senior guard Demontez Stitt scored a career-high 25 points in defeat, and had a shot to win the game at the end of regulation, but the jumper was contested and errant, and the two teams went to the extra session. Stitt leads the team in scoring (14.7 PPG) and assists (3.4 APG), while senior forward Jerai Grant (12.1 PPG) leads the squad in rebounding (6.7 RPG). The Tigers are in the tournament for the fourth straight year, but have not advanced past the opening round since 1997. Clemson is the third school that Brownell has taken to the NCAA Tournament in his first year there, replicating the feat in 2003 at UNC-Wilmington and 2007 at Wright State. He is 0-3 all-time in the tournament, with one defeat coming by three points on a buzzer beater to Maryland, and a second defeat coming in overtime by three points to George Washington.

For the fifth time in his 11-year coaching career, and the first time since arriving at UAB in 2006, Blazers coach Mike Davis is taking a team to the NCAA Tournament. The Blazers are trying to shake off their C-USA Tournament stumble, in hopes of regaining the form that helped them to seven wins in their past nine games. On average, the Blazers are outscoring the Tigers by about half a point per game (68.9 to 68.3), outrebounding them by about one board per game (36.0 to 34.9), and shooting about the same (44.0% to 44.2%). Clemson does average roughly 2.6 more steals per game, and forces nearly three more turnovers per game. UAB is led by big senior guard Jamarr Sanders (17.7 PPG, 37.8% three-pointers). Junior forward Cameron Moore (14.3 PPG) leads the team in rebounding (9.4 RPG) and blocks per game (1.4 BPG). Speedy 5-foot-8 senior guard Aaron Johnson (12.0 PPG, 7.7 APG) can dish out the assists with the best of them, but it was his scoring that turned heads in the last game versus East Carolina. On a night when his teammates shot just 9-for-43 FG (20.9%), Johnson was 12-for-22 (54.5%) from the floor en route to a 39-point night in the losing effort versus the Pirates. Sanders was 5-of-17 against ECU, and will need to do much better than that if the Blazers are to have a chance of quieting the doubters, and moving on to face the West Virginia Mountaineers in the second round.

UAB has been a wonderful bet this year, going 19-10 ATS overall, including 12-3 ATS in non-home games. The Blazers are 9-3 ATS in non-conference games and 7-2 ATS as an underdog. Clemson is 14-13 ATS overall, including an unbeaten 3-0-1 ATS in March. But the Tigers are just 4-7 ATS outside ACC play and 10-12 ATS as a favorite. All signs point to UAB covering the spread and this FoxSheets trend also sides with the Blazers.

Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UAB) - after having covered 3 of their last 4 against the spread against opponent after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread. (245-162 over the last 5 seasons.) (60.2%, +66.8 units. Rating = 2*).

Clemson has played 64% of its games Under the total and UAB has gone Under 62% of the time this year. This highly-rated FoxSheets trend also thinks the Under will occur on Tuesday night.

UAB is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) after scoring 25 points or less in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was UAB 68.7, OPPONENT 56.6 - (Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Bulls favored by 16 points over Wizards


WASHINGTON WIZARDS (16-49)

at CHICAGO BULLS (47-18)


Tip-off: Tuesday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Chicago -16, Total: 193

The surging Chicago Bulls hope to continue their climb to the top of the Eastern Conference on Tuesday when they host the struggling Washington Wizards. This is the fourth and final meeting of the season between these two opponents with the Bulls taking the first three.

The Wizards record of 23-42 ATS is easily the worst in the NBA. While their 9-21 road record ATS is also the worst in the NBA, it’s still a lot better than their record SU on the road, which is 1-29. The Wizards still have 11 chances left to win their second road game and not finish tied with the 1990-91 Sacramento Kings, who are the only team since the NBA went to a 82-game schedule to win just one game on the road. Overall, the Wizards have lost four straight and 11 of their past 12 games, and only the Cavaliers have a worse winning percentage than Washington. The 2010 overall number one draft pick John Wall has had a rough go of it in his first NBA season. Wall scored 14 points in the Wizards loss to the Thunder on Monday, and is averaging just 16.3 PPG while shooting 34.5 percent from the field in his past three games. In his two games against the Bulls this season, Wall is averaging 12.5 PPG while making only 35.7 percent of his shots. Washington has lost four straight both overall and at Chicago in this series.

With a win, the Bulls can pull a half-game ahead of the Celtics for the best record in the Eastern Conference. The Bulls 40-24 ATS mark now ranks as the best in the NBA, as is their 21-11 record ATS at home. Chicago is 13-2 SU and 12-3 ATS in its past 15 games. The Bulls are 29-4 SU at home, and have won 19 of their past 20 at the United Center while holding opponents to just 85.5 PPG in those 20 games. In their last game, a 118-100 home win against the Jazz, Utah became the first team in that 20-game span to reach 100 points. Derek Rose scored 26 points and made five of a franchise-record 18 three-pointers in the Bulls win against Utah. Rose is averaging 25.5 PPG in his past six games against the Wizards. Joakim Noah had 16 points and nine rebounds against Utah, and has averaged 20.0 PPG and 10.0 RPG while making 70 percent of his shots in two games against Washington this season. Carlos Boozer will most likely miss Tuesday’s game with a sprained left ankle.

You can’t get much more of a mismatch on paper than this one. The Bulls have the best record ATS both overall and at home, while the Wizards have the worst records in those two categories. The Bulls have won three of the last four ATS in this series, and they are 7-2 in their past nine home games ATS when the giving at least seven points. I like them to continue their quest to the top of the Eastern Conference with a win against the Wizards. I’m taking Chicago, and the FoxSheets also back the Bulls:

Play Against - Road underdogs of 10 or more points (WASHINGTON) - after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread against opponent hot team - covering 8 or more of their last 10 against the spread. (26-6 since 1996.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Mavs-Blazers try to get back on winning track


DALLAS MAVERICKS (47-19)

at PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS (37-29)


Tip-off: Tuesday, 10:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Dallas -1.5, Total: 189

The Mavericks travel to Portland in a battle between Western Conference teams who are looking to improve their playoff positioning. After winning the season series 3-games-to-1 last season, the Blazers have lost both their meetings this season with Dallas.

Dallas is 35-29 ATS this season, but has lost five of its past six ATS. The Mavs road record of 20-12 ATS ranks in the top-five of the NBA, but they have lost two straight and three of their past five games ATS on the road. After winning 19 of 20 SU, they have lost three of their past five. Their last game saw them drop a 96-91 decision to the Lakers, whom they are tied with for second in the Western Conference. Dirk Nowitzki and Shawn Marion each scored 25 points and recorded double-doubles in the loss. After scoring 10 points or fewer in each of his previous five games, Marion is averaging 23.5 PPG over his past two games. Nowitzki scored 21 in the Mavericks win over the Blazers in December, but missed the January game with an injury. Tyson Chandler is averaging 12.5 PPG and 10.5 RPG while connecting on 11-of-14 shots against Portland this season.

The Blazers are 31-30 ATS this season, which includes a 16-14 record ATS at home. They have lost two in a row SU after winning 11 of their previous 14 games. They currently sit seventh in the Western Conference standings, a half-game behind New Orleans for sixth, one game ahead of Memphis for eighth, and three games ahead of Utah for ninth. The Blazers have really struggled shooting the ball since the All-Star break, shooting just 43.7 percent from the field. Things got really ugly in losing consecutive games at Charlotte and Atlanta last weekend, when the Blazers shot a combined 40.3 percent from the field. LaMarcus Aldridge has scored at least 20 points in five of his past six games, averaging 22.2 PPG over that span. In his two games against the Mavericks this season, Aldridge has dominated, averaging 31.0 PPG and 10.0 RPG.

The Blazers have not received the offensive boost they had hoped when they acquired Gerald Wallace from the Bobcats at the trading deadline, as he is averaging just 11.4 PPG while making 40.5 percent of his shots. The Blazers need him to step up if they want to defeat the Mavericks, which I don’t think he is ready to do just yet. I’m taking Dallas to win on the road, and these two FoxSheets trends also support the Mavs:

DALLAS is 14-4 ATS (77.8%, +9.6 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 this season. The average score was DALLAS 101.4, OPPONENT 97.6 - (Rating = 2*).

Rick Carlisle is 87-45 ATS (65.9%, +37.5 Units) when playing with 2 days rest in all games he has coached since 1996. The average score was Carlisle 96.9, OPPONENT 91.3 - (Rating = 2*).

This highly-rated FoxSheets trend favors the Under for Tuesday’s game.

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (DALLAS) - good 3PT shooting team (>=36.5%) against an average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%), in a game involving two good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) after 42+ games. (121-65 over the last 5 seasons.) (65.1%, +49.5 units. Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday's Play-In Games

March 15, 2011

The 2011 NCAA Tournament begins tonight in Dayton with a pair of play-in games starting at 6:30 p.m. Eastern. In the lid-lifter, UNC-Asheville (19-13 straight up, 3-1 against the spread) will take on Arkansas-Little Rock.

As of early this morning, most betting shops had the Bulldogs favored by four with a total of 129. Gamblers can back A-LR to win outright for a plus-160 payout (risk $100 to win $160).

UNC-Asheville won the Big South Conference Tournament to garner the league’s automatic bid. The Bulldogs beat the regular-season champ, a short-handed Coastal Carolina team, in the tourney finals. They won a 60-47 decision as five-point underdogs.

Chris Stephenson scored 14 points and pulled down eight rebounds, while John Williams added 10 points, nine boards and six blocked shots. Matt Dickey chipped in with 12 points.

Arkansas-Little Rock (19-16 SU, 17-16 ATS) brought a three-game losing steak both SU and ATS into the Sun Belt Conference Tournament, but the Trojans broke out of that slide to win four consecutive games both SU and ATS. They beat North Texas in the finals last Tuesday thanks to Solomon Bozeman’s game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer.

Bozeman scored a game-high 20 points to lift his team past the Mean Green Eagles as a 3 ½-point underdog. Gus Leeper was also in double figures with 10 points.

A-LR is back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time in 21 years. Bozeman has been the key, averaging 22.0 points per game during the four-game run through the Sun Belt Tourney. He called a players-only meeting before the event after the Trojans lost three straight to conclude the regular season.

A-LR has faced just one team from the entire NCAA field this year. The Trojans lost 75-61 to Akron as four-point underdogs out in Las Vegas in November. They also took on an NIT squad in Ole Miss, which won at A-LR by an 84-70 count as a seven-point road favorite.

UNC-Asheville has won six in a row. During its non-conference schedule, it was not scared to take on the big boys, going on the road to face programs like Auburn, Georgetown, North Carolina and Ohio State.

UNC-Asheville won its season opener 70-69 at Auburn in overtime. The Bulldogs were competitive in losses at UNC (80-69) and at Georgetown (87-72), but they got stroked 96-49 by the Buckeyes.

Hailing from a non-board conference, UNC-Asheville’s only lined games were its BracketBuster matchup vs. Northeastern and its three games in the Big South Tourney. The Bulldogs lost a heartbreaker at home to the Huskies, 83-82, as four-point home favorites. However, they took the cash in all three victories en route to winning their NCAA bid.

Dickey, a junior guard, leads UNC-Asheville with a 15.4 PPG average. He has an excellent backcourt mate in fellow junior J.P. Primm, who averages 14.4 points, 4.6 assists, 3.8 rebounds and 2.1 steals per game.

The winner will advance to face top-seeded Pittsburgh in Washington D.C. at 3:10 p.m. Eastern on Thursday.

In the second contest from Dayton Arena, Clemson (21-11 SU, 13-13-2 ATS) will square off against UAB. As of early this morning, most books had the Tigers listed as 4 ½-point favorites with a total of 121. Bettors can take the Blazers on the money line for a plus-180 return (risk $100 to win $180).

Brad Brownwell can surpass the number of NCAA Tournament wins his predecessor, Oliver Purnell, amassed at Clemson with a victory tonight. The Tigers finished strong to get into the field, winning four of their last six games while going 4-1-1 ATS.

Clemson beat Va. Tech 69-60 in its regular-season finale and then destroyed Boston College 70-47 in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals. With the Hokies and Eagles also on the bubble, those victories were apparently the difference for the Tigers, who also gave North Carolina fits before losing in overtime of the ACC semifinals.

When Clemson has been listed as a single-digit favorite this season, it has posted a 9-6 spread record. The Tigers have played nine games against teams in the NCAA field, winning just twice against FSU at home and Wofford at home.

UAB (22-8 SU, 17-11-1 ATS) won the Conference USA regular-season title with a 12-4 record, but it appeared to have its bubble popped with an overtime loss to East Carolina in the C-USA Tourney quarterfinals. Nevertheless, head coach Mike Davis is back in the tournament for the first time since he was at Indiana.

UAB played five teams in the NCAA field, losing four of those, including an 85-64 loss at Duke as a 17 ½-point underdog. The Blazers beat VCU 68-65 but failed to cover the number as 5 ½-point favorites. They lost 66-64 at Georgia, 76-73 vs. Memphis in overtime and 62-58 at Memphis.

Clemson is led by senior guard Demontez Stitt, who averaged 22.5 points, 5.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 2.0 steals per game in the ACC Tourney. The Tigers’ best post player is Jerai Grant, the son of alum and former NBA player Harvey Grant, who averages 12.1 points and 6.7 rebounds per game. Grant, another senior, has 196 career blocked shots.

UAB’s leading scorer is senior guard Jamarr Sanders, who averages 17.7 points and 4.6 rebounds per game. Sanders scored a career-best 37 points in a win over Rice on Feb. 12. Sanders is joined in the backcourt by senior PG Aaron Johnson, who leads the nation in assists with 7.7 per game. Johnson (12.0 PPG) exploded for a career-high 39 points in the aforementioned loss to ECU.

The ‘under’ has been a lucrative investment in Clemson games, cashing at a 17-10-1 overall clip. Likewise, the ‘under’ is 17-11-1 overall for UAB.

The Clemson-UAB winner will earn a No. 11 seed and a date with West Va. It'll be a quick turnaround for a 12:15 p.m. Eastern game in Tampa.

Both play-in games will be televised on TruTV (channel 246 on DirecTV).

[StarDust Bum]

Irish put Vegas at risk

March 15, 2011


Most Nevada sports books find themselves rooting against Notre Dame heading into Thursday’s tournament. They’ve already seen action on the Irish from the betting public for Friday’s opening round match against Akron which has been collectively bet up a half-point from the opener to minus-13 ½. The losses for that game -- should they cover -- pales in comparison to what will happen if Notre Dame goes on to win five more games after that and win the National Championship.

Most sportsbooks opened Notre Dame as high as 150-to-1 before the season started with many not adjusting too quickly, feeling their 8-0 start to the season wasn’t that big of a deal considering three of the teams they played weren’t even games being booked. Two of their other wins were as 15 ½-point favorites or higher.

However, the bets started slowly coming in early on the Irish after big wins against Georgia, California and then Wisconsin. Their large 72-58 loss to Kentucky had a few sports books feeling that the Irish came back to reality, but then they went out and beat Gonzaga and then Georgetown. By that time, the sports books already had a huge risk on Notre Dame. It doesn’t take many $10 bets to make the sports book feel the possibilities of pain by paying out at odds of over 100-to-1.

Over the course of January and February, Notre Dame just kept getting better and impressing the sharpest of prognosticators. They come into the tournament having won 12 of 14 games with the two tough losses in the Big East at West Virginia and then Louisville in the Big East Tournament. Most sports books that offer fair prices have readjusted their odds for the NCAA’s to 25-to-1 despite the huge liability weighing from the initial odds.

In those adjusted odds that most books put out Sunday night, the top two teams in ticket counts and cash taken have been Connecticut at 25-to-1, who is fresh on everyone’s mind after their impressive run winning the Big East Tournament, and Louisville at 30-to-1, who lost to Connecticut in the Championship game.

Between the perceived value of getting those type of odds from two of the better teams in what has been the best conference in college basketball this year, bettors can’t get enough of them.

A few books also have found themselves with jeopardy on Ohio State who were 25-to-1 at some places despite being the No. 5 team in the nation before the season started. The departure of Evan Turner from last years strong Buckeye squad and the uncertainty of just how good Jared Sullinger would be may have played a part in the odds being so high initially. Currently, Ohio State is the 4-to-1 favorites at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book.

Action in the Las Vegas books has been steady, but the onslaught hasn’t even started from both the Sharps and the Public. Only six games had moved at Station Casinos sports books through Tuesday afternoon with the Sharps not ready to show their hand yet. Most of the large money plays will come on game day, likely a few minutes before game time, to ensure that some of these sharp groups get their desired number everywhere within a .30 second window. They are pretty stealth with their plan of attacks, and it's pretty fun watching all the lines move simultaneously with such efficiency.

For the bookmaker, their main hope to combat these group attacking schemes is that they only allow one of those plays to get one number and don't get double and triple popped on the same line from different windows at multiple locations by being too slow on the draw. By waiting until game time with all the cash flowing furiously in from bettors everywhere, the Sharp group's Maestro hope is that their bets get lost in the shuffle and the bookmaker is slow with moving the line so his partners can piggy-back on the same number for the same amount.