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  • #16
    Mid-Major Report

    March 12, 2011

    Saturday’s Update

    This column will provide daily betting updates from the Atlantic 10, Mid-American Conference (MAC) and Conference USA (CUSA) throughout Championship Week.

    CUSA Championship

    On Tuesday, we looked at the future odds for this tournament at Sportsbook.com and we weren’t surprised that UTEP (+125) was deemed the favorite, considering they were hosting the event. What was a little strange is that Memphis (+800) has such high odds. Houston captured the conference tournament last year but the Tigers did win the previous four championships. On Saturday, those two will meet in El Paso, Texas for what looks like the one and only bid for Conference USA. After 10 matchups, favorites have gone 6-4 both SU and ATS. The ‘over’ has produced a 6-4 ledger as well.

    (4) Memphis vs. (3) UTEP

    These two teams squared off a couple weeks ago and the outcome was nothing short of a blowout. UTEP dominated Memphis 74-47 as a five-point home favorite from start to finish, outscoring the Tigers by 13 in the first and 14 points over the final 20 minutes. Memphis shot 33 percent from the field and was just 1-of-18 from 3-point land in the setback. The combined 121 points never threatened the closing number of 136 points, which was helped with a combined 56 percent (28-of-50) from 3-point land.

    A10 Semifinals

    The venue for this tournament is Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, New Jersey, which has a capacity of roughly 12,000. This will be the fifth year that the conference holds its postseason event here and lately it’s been all about Temple. The Owls have captured the last three championships and their only two wins away from making it four straight.

    Second-seed Temple and third-seed Richmond both lived up to their billing on Friday by notching double-digit victories in the quarterfinals. While those schools held their form, the top side of the bracket featured a pair of upsets. Ninth-seed Dayton nipped top-seed Xavier (68-67) and the lowest ranked school, St. Joseph’s, kept its Cinderella story alive by downing No. 4 Duquesne (93-90) in overtime. We know whoever advances to the finals out of aforementioned upset clubs they’ll be catching points in the championship on Sunday.

    (12) St. Joseph’s vs. (9) Dayton

    Tip-off is set for 1:00 p.m. EST

    (3) Richmond vs. (2) Temple

    Tip-off is set for 3:30 p.m. EST

    MAC Championship

    It was déjà vu in Cleveland on Friday during the MAC semifinals. Akron defeated Western Michigan 79-68 in the first semi and shortly after Kent State knocked off Ball State by the same exact score (79-68). The duo helped the favorites push their numbers to 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in the first 10 MAC tournament games. The ‘under’ was on a 6-2 run but both contests went ‘over’ last night. Tip-off for tonight’s title game is set for 6:00 p.m. EST with ESPN2, providing national coverage.

    (6) Akron vs. (1) Kent State

    Analysis to be posted when lines available
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

    Comment


    • #17
      Big East Championship

      March 12, 2011


      The goal of any team in the Big East tournament is to be the last one to leave Madison Square Garden. You do that and you’re the team cutting down the nets as champion. That’s something that Louisville (24-8 straight up, 19-10-1 against the spread) will be aiming to do for the second time in three years. All that stands in its way is the Huskies at 9:00 p.m. EST on ESPN.

      The Cardinals made it back to the conference final thanks to a blowout win over Marquette on Thursday night. On Friday evening, the ‘Ville pushed past the Fighting Irish with an 83-77 overtime win as a two-point pup. Rick Pitino’s club cashed in at plus-130 (risk $100 to win $130) for the mild upset.

      Louisville’s win was particularly impressive on two fronts. The first one being that they got into Ben Hansbrough’s head as he turned the ball over six times and scored just 13 points. The other being the Cards not only rallied from a 14-point halftime deficit, but they also won in the extra session with Peyton Silva fouling out with 15 points.

      Pitino’s team has been on a great run right now with a 6-1 SU mark in its last seven games. More importantly for us, the Cardinals are 7-0 ATS in that stretch. The ‘under’ went 5-2 in those tests.

      Connecticut (22-9 SU, 17-11 ATS) had a relatively hum drum season that put them into the unenviable task of playing the opening round on Tuesday. No team had won four games in as many days to reach the Big East title game since they adopted the new format in 2009. Yet here the Huskies stand, a win away from their first conference title since 2004.

      The Huskies reached this point by taking down DePaul, Georgetown, Pittsburgh and Syracuse. In the most recent game, UConn needed overtime to get the 76-71 win over the Orange as a four-point underdog. Kemba Walker continues to prove how good he really is by scoring 33 points and grabbing 12 rebounds against Syracuse.

      Calhoun’s crew is going to have to hope that the third time is the charm for winning a conference title. They’ve lost both meetings with the Cardinals this year SU and ATS. In fact, the Huskies are 0-4 SU and ATS over the last two seasons against Louisville.

      The trends for this year’s Big East tournament has shown that defense is optional on occasion. We’ve watched the ‘over’ go 11-3 through the first 14 games in the tourney. Underdogs have went 6-8 SU and 7-7 ATS in those contests to boot.

      As strong as the ‘over’ has been for this year’s event, the championship game has given us different info. The favorites have gone 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS in the last nine finals. Plus, the ‘under’ 6-3 during those title clashes.
      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

      Comment


      • #18
        Big 12 Title Game

        March 12, 2011


        The Big 12 Championship takes place on Saturday evening with the top two seeds playing for the automatic berth. In reality, both Kansas and Texas will each be either a number one or two seed in next week's NCAA Tournament. However, the winner of this game may get a slightly easier road to the Final Four, depending on how the committee slots these clubs.

        Top-seeded Kansas failed to cover the second straight game in this tournament after knocking off fifth-seed Colorado, 90-83 as 12-point favorites. KU got into a track meet with a Colorado team that likes to run, as the Jayhawks took advantage by shooting 49% from the floor. The Morris brothers (Marcus and Markieff) each put up 20 points, while the Jayhawks knocked down 29 of 33 free throws to advance to their fifth conference championship in six seasons.

        The Longhorns beat Texas A&M for the third time this season with Friday's 70-58 victory as 6 ½-point 'chalk.' Texas managed another cover in this series after downing A&M the two previous meetings by 20 points or more. The 'Horns defense stifled the Aggies by limiting Mark Turgeon's club to 35% shooting from the field on Friday. Meanwhile, Texas shot well by connecting on 49% of their shots from the floor, led by Jordan Hamilton's 17 points.

        In a surprising twist, Texas rallied past Kansas, 74-63 at Allen Fieldhouse on January 22 to hand Bill Self's team their first loss of the season after an 18-0 start. The Longhorns came back from a 15-point deficit following an 18-3 hole to start the game to cash as 7 ½-point underdogs. Texas trailed 42-32 with 14 minutes remaining in regulation, but the 'Horns went on a 22-5 run to pull away and snap KU's 69-game home winning streak.

        Since that game, Kansas is 13-1 SU and 7-6-1 ATS, while going 0-4-1 ATS the last five games. The Jayhawks own a 1-3-1 ATS mark the previous five contests as single-digit favorites, including SU losses to Texas and Kansas State. The offense has clicked since the Texas defeat, as the 'over' has hit in 10 of the last 14 games, while eclipsing the 82-point mark on 10 occasions.

        The Longhorns have covered three straight games following consecutive losses to Kansas State and Colorado. Texas is one of the best ATS teams in the country with a 20-8 ledger against the number, including a 12-3 ATS record away from Austin. The 'Horns are predicated on defense as evidenced by a 13-5 mark to the 'under' in Big 12 action.

        Kansas has won the conference tournament seven of eight times since the Big 12 championship started in 1997, including a perfect 4-0 record under Self. Texas hasn't seen the same luck by failing to win this tournament despite five opportunities in the title game. What has made matters worse for UT is three losses from 2006-08 to Kansas, including an overtime setback in 2007.

        BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP HISTORY - LAST 5 SEASONS
        SEASON WINNER LOSER SCORE LINE
        09-10 KANSAS K-STATE 72-64 -6
        08-09 MISSOURI BAYLOR 73-60 -6.5
        07-08 KANSAS TEXAS 84-74 -5.5
        06-07 KANSAS TEXAS 88-84 -6
        05-06 KANSAS TEXAS 80-68 +3



        The game tips off at 6 PM EST from the Sprint Center in Kansas City and will be televised on ESPN.
        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

        Comment


        • #19
          Bracketology Update

          March 12, 2011

          Saturday's Update

          As expected, Friday was an eventful day on the bubble. As a result, we have moved a handful of teams into the safe category, a handful of others to the wrong side of the cut-line, and a few others back into the field of 68. Among those results on Friday...

          1) Safe! After results on Friday, mark Clemson, Michigan State, Michigan, and Richmond into your fields of 68 with a pen, not a pencil.

          2) Kick 'em out! After results on Friday, Boston College and Illinois fall to the wrong side of our cut-line. As for the Eagles, that thumping loss at the hands of Clemson couldn't have come at a worse time, and against a team that also probably needed another win to solidify its position. Upon closer inspection, the Eagles have few quality wins other than the pair vs. Virginia Tech. Their profile suggested a deeper run was probably needed in the ACC Tourney. Meanwhile, for Illinois, Friday's loss to Michigan meant 10 losses in the last 16 games; the Fighting Illini will have to hope that its early season win in the ACC-Big Ten challenge over North Carolina can be a difference-making chip to cash on Selection Sunday. Right now, we doubt it.

          3) Let 'em in! After results on Friday, we welcome Saint Mary's and UAB back into the field. These are very close calls at the moment; Penn State is knocking on the door after Friday's throwback-to-the-peach-basket-days 36-33 win over Wisconsin. But Saint Mary's and UAB both won regular-season titles in fairly respectable leagues. Despite a lack of marquee wins, the Blazers' RPI numbers remain strong. And we saw last year's Selection Committee defer on the side of spreading the wealth when making a conscientious effort to invite two deserving teams from the mid-major league. Both the Gaels and Blazers fit that profile, although UAB did not help itself by losing its first CUSA Tourney game against East Carolina.

          4) Any Bubble Busters left? Yes, there are. There will be at least one Bubble Buster in Sunday's A-10 title game; before the tourney began, we might have guessed that Dayton would be one of the teams, but never would have dreamed Phil Martelli's St. Joe's (which wasn't even expected to make the A-10 postseason field a week ago) would be one step from returning to the Dance for the first time in seven years. When is the last 9 vs. 12 semifinal that you can remember? And do you agree with us that the late Peter Boyle would have been the perfect choice to play Martelli in his life story? The winner of Flyers-Hawks gets the winner of Temple-Richmond. Meanwhile, hot Boise State, on an 8-game win streak, is a very live Bubble Buster in the WAC final vs. Utah State, which should have removed any doubt it will make the field with Friday's win (although not easy) vs. George Nessman's scrappy San Jose State. Penn State, still alive in the Big Ten semifinal round, also qualifies on our list, although some Bracketologists such as Joe Lunardi have already penciled the Nittany Lions into the field. We're not as sure. .

          Here's how we think the field of 68 is shaping up as of Saturday morning. We'll have our final Bracketology update on Sunday morning. Stay tuned...

          Bracketology Projections
          Seed EAST SOUTHEAST SOUTHWEST WEST
          1 Duke Ohio State Kansas North Carolina
          2 Pitt Texas San Diego State BYU
          3 Purdue Florida Notre Dame Kentucky
          4 Connecticut Syracuse Wisconsin Louisville
          5 Kansas State Temple Vanderbilt Arizona
          6 Xavier West Virginia St. John's Texas A&M
          7 UNLV Cincinnati UCLA Georgetown
          8 Old Dominion Washington George Mason Utah State
          9 Michigan State Florida State Gonzaga Michigan
          10 Tennessee Butler Virginia Tech Clemson
          11 Missouri UTEP* Richmond Villanova
          12 East 12* Alabama Marquette West 12*
          13 Princeton* Belmont Oakland Indiana State
          14 Bucknell Morehead State Wofford Long Beach State*
          15 St.Peter's Kent State* Long Island No. Colorado
          16 Boston U* SE 16* SW 16* UA-Little Rock




          *Notes

          East
          East 12 play-in game: Georgia vs. UAB
          Princeton or Harvard will represent the Ivy
          Boston U or Stony Brook will represent the America East

          Southeast
          UTEP or Memphis will represent CUSA
          Kent State or Akron will represent the MAC
          SE 16 play-in game: Hampton vs. McNeese State
          (both Hampton & McNeese State are still involved in conference tourney play)

          Southwest
          SW 16 play-in game: UNC-Asheville vs. Alabama State
          (Alabama State or Grambling will represent the SWAC)

          West
          West 12 play-in game: Colorado vs. Saint Mary's
          Long Beach State or UCSB will represent the Big West


          Last four in: Georgia, UAB, Colorado, Saint Mary's

          First four out: Penn State, Boston College, Illinois, Southern Cal

          Next four out: Memphis, Missouri State, Wichita State, Harvard
          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

          Comment


          • #20
            Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
            03/11/11 6-*2-*2 75.00% +*2365 Detail
            03/10/11 7-*2-*0 77.78% +*2715 Detail
            03/09/11 6-*5-*0 54.55% +*425 Detail
            03/07/11 4-*6-*0 40.00% -*1135 Detail
            03/06/11 5-*5-*0 50.00% +*45 Detail
            03/05/11 3-*7-*0 30.00% -*1720 Detail
            03/04/11 9-*3-*0 75.00% +*3135 Detail
            03/03/11 7-*4-*1 63.64% +*1750 Detail
            03/02/11 7-*5-*0 58.33% +*770 Detail
            Totals 54-*39-*3 58.06% +8350

            Saturday, March 12

            Game Score Status Pick Amount

            Baltimore - 1:05 PM ET Baltimore +108 500
            Houston -

            Florida - 1:05 PM ET Florida +127 500
            Boston -

            Minnesota - 1:05 PM ET Minnesota +114 500
            St. Louis -

            NY Yankees - 1:05 PM ET Washington -101 500
            Washington -

            NY Mets - 1:05 PM ET Atlanta -130 500
            Atlanta -

            Oakland - 3:05 PM ET Oakland +106 500
            Seattle -

            Texas - 3:05 PM ET Texas +108 500
            Chi. White Sox -

            LA Angels - 4:05 PM ET LA Angels +106 500
            Cleveland -


            Games with lines out....will post the other games when lines are available....
            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

            Comment


            • #21
              NHLSaturday, 12

              Game Score Status Pick

              Montreal - 2:00 PM ET Montreal +115 500
              Pittsburgh - Over 5 500

              Buffalo - 7:00 PM ET Toronto -102 500
              Toronto - Over 5.5 500

              NY Islanders - 7:00 PM ET NY Islanders +186 500
              New Jersey - Over 5 500

              Atlanta - 7:00 PM ET Atlanta +214 500
              Philadelphia - Under 5.5 500

              Columbus - 7:00 PM ET Carolina -152 500
              Carolina - Over 5.5 500

              Tampa Bay - 7:00 PM ET Tampa Bay -127 500
              Florida - Over 5.5 500

              Detroit - 8:00 PM ET Detroit -115 500
              St. Louis - Over 5.5 500

              Colorado - 8:00 PM ET Nashville -225 500
              Nashville - Under 5.5 500

              Vancouver - 10:00 PM ET Vancouver -118 500
              Calgary - Over 5.5 500

              NY Rangers - 10:30 PM ET San Jose -163 500
              San Jose - Under 5.5 500


              ----------------------------------------------------------

              NCAABSaturday,

              March 12Game Score Status Pick Amount

              Memphis - 11:30 AM ET Memphis +5 500
              Texas-El Paso - Over 129.5 500

              Stony Brook - 12:00 PM ET Stony Brook +6 500
              Boston U - Under 117 500

              Kentucky - 1:00 PM ET Alabama +6.5 500
              Alabama - Under 129 500

              St. Joseph's - 1:00 PM ET Dayton -6.5 500
              Dayton - Under 128 500

              Clemson - 1:00 PM ET Clemson +5 500
              North Carolina - Under 132 500

              Michigan - 1:40 PM ET Ohio St. -11 500
              Ohio St. - Over 128.5 500

              Morgan St. - 2:00 PM ET Morgan St. +1.5 500
              Hampton - Over 125.5 500

              Virginia Tech - 3:25 PM ET Virginia Tech +7 500
              Duke - Under 132.5 500

              Richmond - 3:30 PM ET Temple -3 500
              Temple - Under 129.5 500

              Vanderbilt - 3:30 PM ET Florida -3 500
              Florida - Over 140.5 500

              Texas-San Antonio - 4:00 PM ET McNeese St. -2.5 500
              McNeese St. - Over 139.5 500

              Harvard - 4:00 PM ET Harvard -2.5 500
              Princeton - Over 130 500

              Michigan St - 4:05 PM ET Michigan St -3.5 500
              Penn St. - Under 122 500

              Texas - 6:00 PM ET Texas +4.5 500
              Kansas - Under 140.5 500

              Akron - 6:00 PM ET Kent St. +0 500
              Kent St. - Under 137 500

              Washington - 6:00 PM ET Washington -3 500
              Arizona - Under 152 500

              San Diego St. - 7:00 PM ET Brigham Young +2.5 500
              Brigham Young - Over 139.5 500

              UC Santa Barbara - 8:00 PM ET Long Beach St. -3 500
              Long Beach St. - Under 135.5 500

              Grambling State - 8:30 PM ET Alabama St. -5 500
              Alabama St. - Under 120.5 500

              Connecticut - 9:00 PM ET Louisville -2.5 500
              Louisville - Under 134.5 500

              Boise St. - 10:00 PM ET Utah St. -6 500
              Utah St. - Over 129 500
              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

              Comment


              • #22
                Saturday, March 12

                Game Score Status Pick Amount

                Memphis - 3:30 PM ET Memphis +8 500
                Miami - Over 195 500

                Portland - 7:00 PM ET Portland +1 500
                Atlanta - Under 181 500

                L.A. Clippers - 7:00 PM ET L.A. Clippers -1.5 500
                Washington - Over 201 500

                Philadelphia - 8:00 PM ET Milwaukee -2 500
                Milwaukee - Over 185.5 500

                Utah - 8:00 PM ET Chicago -10.5 500
                Chicago - Over 188.5 500

                Sacramento - 8:00 PM ET Sacramento +9.5 500
                New Orleans - Over 193 500

                San Antonio - 8:30 PM ET Houston +1 500
                Houston - Under 213.5 500

                Detroit - 9:00 PM ET Denver -9.5 500
                Denver - Under 208.5 500

                L.A. Lakers - 9:00 PM ET L.A. Lakers +1 500
                Dallas - Under 194 500
                Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                Comment

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