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SEC Quarterfinals

March 11, 2011


The SEC Tournament quarterfinals will start Friday at 1:00 p.m. Eastern when Alabama (20-10 straight up, 14-12 against the spread) and Georgia meet for the second time in less than a week. Some pundits think this is a play-in game for an NCAA Tournament at-large invite, but this space says that the Dawgs will be going dancing regardless of the outcome.

Georgia (21-10 SU, 13-14 ATS) advanced by beating Auburn on Wednesday afternoon by a 69-51 count as an 11 ½-point home favorite. The 120 combined points fell ‘under’ the 123 ½-point total. Trey Thompkins was the catalyst for UGA, scoring 22 points and pulling down 10 rebounds. Travis Leslie added 12 points and 10 boards. Thompkins showed no ill effects from the toenail removal that limited his minutes in a couple of games last week.

When Mark Fox’s team visited Coleman Coliseum in Tuscaloosa last Saturday, it came up on the short end of a 65-57 decision as a 4 ½-point road underdog. Thompkins finished with 15 points and 10 rebounds, while Leslie also chipped in 15 points.

If Alabama can beat UGA for a second time, the Tide would be all but assured an NCAA bid with a 13-4 record against SEC foes. The winner of this contest will play the Ole Miss-Kentucky winner.

Tip-off at the Ga. Dome in Atlanta is slated for 1:00 p.m. Eastern.

Ole Miss (20-12 SU, 15-13 ATS) advanced to the tourney quarterfinals to face Kentucky thanks to a 66-55 win over South Carolina on Thursday afternoon. The Rebels took the cash as 4 ½-point favorites. Chris Warren led the way with 20 points, four assists and just one turnover. Terrance Henry added 14 points and 11 rebounds.

When these team met at The Tad Pad in Oxford back on Feb. 1, Warren buried an audacious 3-pointer from about 28 feet out with just a few ticks remaining to lift the Rebels to a 71-69 win as 6 ½-point home underdogs. UK’s Terrence Jones had 22 points, 12 rebounds and four blocked shots in the losing effort.

Kentucky (22-8 SU, 11-13-1 ATS) finished strong with five wins in its last six games, but we should note that the Wildcats went just 2-3-1 ATS during this span. The ‘Cats did cover the number in Sunday’s regular-season finale, a 64-58 win at Tennessee as 1 ½-point road favorites. Brandon Knight scored a game-high 19 points, while Jones and Darius Miller chipped in with 15 points apiece.

Andy Kennedy’s squad is 4-3 ATS in seven games as an underdog.

This game will come off the board at about 3:30 p.m. Eastern.

The night session will commence when top-seeded Florida takes on Tennessee in the prime-time session at 7:30 p.m. Eastern. As of early this morning, there was no line available, but please check back later for an update on the number.

When the Gators and Vols squared off last at the O-Dome in Gainesville, Florida (24-6 SU, 12-13-1 ATS) captured a 61-60 win thanks to a late lay-up from junior guard Erving Walker. In the first encounter in Knoxville, UF won an 81-75 decision in overtime as a three-point road underdog.

With UT threatening to get a game-winning score at the end of regulation, UF senior power forward Alex Tyus made a crucial blocked shot to force the extra session. In OT, the Gators pulled away for the moderate upset at Thompson-Boling Arena. Tyus finished with 18 points, seven rebounds and three blocked shots. Kenny Boynton, Chandler Parsons and Walker produced 17, 16 and 15 points, respectively.

Billy Donovan’s team comes to the Peach State on fire, winning eight of its last nine games with a 5-3-1 spread record. The ‘over’ has hit in five consecutive Florida games and seven of its last eight.

The late game will feature Vanderbilt (22-9 SU, 15-11-1 ATS) against Mississippi State. The Commodores eliminated LSU 62-50 but the Bayou Bengals went out in style for our purposes, hooking up their backers as 14-point underdogs.

When these SEC rivals met in Starkville at The Hump, Vandy collected an 81-74 win as a seven-point road ‘chalk.’ This game was a push all around as the 155 combined points hit exactly on the 155-point total.

MSU’s best post player, Renardo Sidney, was limited to 13 minutes of playing time due to foul trouble. In the losing effort, Ravern Johnson scored 19 points and Dee Bost had 18 points, six assists and five rebounds.

Jeffery Taylor led the winners with a game-high 25 points, while John Jenkins chipped in with 21 points and six rebounds.

[StarDust Bum]

Mid-Major Report

March 11, 2011

Friday’s Update

This column will provide daily betting updates from the Atlantic 10, Mid-American Conference (MAC) and Conference USA (CUSA) throughout Championship Week.
A10 – Quarterfinals

The venue for this tournament is Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, New Jersey, which has a capacity of roughly 12,000. This will be the fifth year that the conference holds its postseason event here and lately it’s been all about Temple. The Owls have captured the last three championships, with George Washington winning the inaugural event in 2007 from this venue.

Since the A10 allows all 12 members to compete in the conference tournament, the first round was played on Tuesday with the higher seeds hosting those games. Surprisingly, the road teams stepped up in the first round, capturing three of the four matchups. St. Joseph’s 71-59 overtime victory against George Washington as an eight-point underdog was the biggest upset. This wasn’t the only A10 game that witnessed an extra session, the other being La Salle and St. Bonaventure. In that affair, the Explorers nipped the Bonnies 75-73 in double-overtime. Surprisingly, the game still slid ‘under the closing total of 150. Even though that game went ‘under’ the other three first round matchups jumped ‘over’ their numbers.

(9) Dayton vs. (1) Xavier

Today’s action starts with a pair of Ohio schools and we could see a competitive game when you look at recent history. Xavier won both regular season meetings (81-76, 66-62) against Dayton but they were decided by a combined nine points. The Musketeers are favored (-7) over the Flyers and they’ve been golden to gamblers lately. Xavier closed the season with nine straight victories (7-2 against the spread) and only one of those teams was able to score more than 70-plus points. Dayton did drop 78 in its first round win over UMass on Tuesday but only mustered up a high of 62 in its three previous games, all losses too.

(12) St. Joseph’s vs. (4) Duquesne

With St. Joseph’s capturing the upset, Duquesne gets somewhat of a free pass here and the oddsmakers have taken notice. The Dukes have been made 10-point favorites and it might be hard to back the school here. If you look at its last eight, Duquesne has gone 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS. Also, the ‘under’ has gone 6-2 during this span. The Dukes did beat the Hawks 75-63 in their only meeting, but that occurred on Jan. 5.

(10) La Salle vs. (2) Temple

The Owls captured both regular season meetings over the Explorers, including a 90-82 victory just last Saturday on Mar. 5. The total went 1-1. Laying 10 points with Temple might be considered risky, even though it’s gone 9-1 to close the season. You ask why? Because the Owls are 4-6 ATS during this run and that includes a 1-5 ATS mark as a double-digit favorite. Today’s line is hovering just around 10 points.

(6) Rhode Island vs. (3) Richmond

The Spiders have been installed as six-point favorites over the Rams and deservingly so. Richmond is arguably the best team in the conference and it’s playing great basketball, closing the season with four straight wins and covers. Another strong reason to back Richmond is its road record, which stands at 13-3 outside of Virginia. Despite those facts, the two schools met once this season and Rhode Island captured a 78-74 victory as a nine-point road underdog. Two things to note; the game was played on Jan. 13 and the Spiders couldn’t buy a shot (38%) from the field.

MAC - Semifinals

The first round of the MAC tournament was on Tuesday, with the higher seed hosting. Not surprisingly, the action concluded with all four home teams winning in double-digit fashion. Those winners moved on to Cleveland yesterday for quarterfinal play and three of the four succumbed to the higher seeds. The lone winner was sixth-seed Akron, which wasn’t really an upset. The Zips defeated Miami, Ohio 82-75 in overtime as a 3 ½-point favorite. Some folks are pointing to yesterday’s Virginia-Miami (Fl.) outcome as the Bad Beat of the Day but the total in this one was to remember as well. Akron led Miami 26-10 at half but somehow the score was knotted 63-63 after 40 minutes. The extra session helped the combined 157 points jump ‘over’ the closing number of 132. After eight games, favorites have gone 6-2 straight up and 5-3 against the spread. The ‘under’ stands at 6-2. Tip-off for tonight’s double-header begins at 7:05 p.m. EST.

(6) Akron vs. (2) Western Michigan

Even though Western Michigan is the top seed, Akron has owned them. The Zips have won five straight and nine of the last 10 head-to-head battles. In the lone affair this season, Akron captured an 83-71 decision as a 6 ½-point home favorite. Total players should note that even though WMU watched its quarterfinal win against Bowling Green go ‘under’ yesterday the ‘over’ has gone 20-8 on the season.

(4) Ball State vs. (1) Kent State

Most didn’t expect Ball State to outlast Ohio yesterday but that win earned the school against top-seed Kent State. Including yesterday’s win over Buffalo (73-62), the Golden Flashes have won five of six and three in a row (3-0 ATS). Kent played Ball State in late January and earned a 66-52 road victory.

CUSA - Semifinals

This group was considered a one-bid league and after watching top-seed UAB choke to East Carolina (75-70) yesterday, it would be difficult to see anybody else but this year’s CUSA champion playing in the upcoming NCAA Tournament. All of the remaining higher seeds advanced to the semifinals. After eight matchups, favorites and underdogs (4-4 SU and ATS) have fought to a stalemate. The ‘over’ has produced a 5-3 ledger. Today’s action from El Paso, Texas starts at 4:00 p.m. EST and will be televised on CSTV. The championship will be played at 11:00 a.m. EST on Saturday.

(8) East Carolina vs. (4) Memphis

Is it smart to bet against an East Carolina team that is playing with confidence? Or do you think fatigue will affect the Pirates today? Three games in three days are tough for anybody, but it's hard to ignore that ECU has now won and covered five of its last six. Memphis did enough to beat Southern Mississippi (66-63) yesterday but how do you back a team that is 8-20 ATS (28%) on the season. The schools played twice this season and the host captured both victories. The ‘under’ easily cashed in both games.

(2) Tulsa vs. (3) UTEP

It’s going to be a tough test for Tulsa in this matchup, considering its playing a true road game against the Miners from El Paso. However, the Golden Hurricane has gone 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10, which includes four straight wins. UTEP will have the support of the crowd, which should help a team that has won and covered four in a row. It’s hard to gauge the regular season affairs that were split between the two, since they occurred in January. UTEP won its home game by 10 (69-59) while Tulsa barely captured a one-point (69-68) decision on its homecourt.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Friday, March 11Game Score Status Pick Amount

Boston - 7:00 PM ET Philadelphia +1.5 500
Philadelphia - Over 191.5 500

L.A. Clippers - 7:00 PM ET New Jersey +2.5 500
New Jersey - Over 192.5 500

Indiana - 7:00 PM ET Toronto -1 500
Toronto - Under 211 500

Portland - 7:00 PM ET Charlotte +4.5 500
Charlotte - Under 182 500

Atlanta - 8:00 PM ET Atlanta +7.5 500
Chicago - Under 179 500

Detroit - 8:00 PM ET Oklahoma City -9 500
Oklahoma City - Under 208.5 500

Utah - 8:00 PM ET Minnesota -1.5 500
Minnesota - Over 207.5 500

Sacramento - 8:30 PM ET Sacramento +11.5 500
San Antonio - Under 208.5 500

Orlando - 10:30 PM ET Golden State +4.5 500
Golden State - Under 207.5 500



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NHL

Friday, March 11Game Score Status Pick Amount

Boston - 7:00 PM ET NY Islanders +126 500
NY Islanders - Over 5.5 500

Carolina - 7:00 PM ET Carolina +146 500
Washington - Under 5.5 500

Los Angeles - 7:00 PM ET Los Angeles -126 500
Columbus - Over 5 500

Edmonton - 7:30 PM ET Edmonton +279 500
Detroit - Over 5.5 500

New Jersey - 7:30 PM ET New Jersey -130 500
Atlanta - Under 5 500

Ottawa - 7:30 PM ET Ottawa +208 500
Tampa Bay - Over 5.5 500

Minnesota - 8:30 PM ET Dallas -166 500
Dallas - Under 5.5 500

Anaheim - 9:00 PM ET Anaheim -126 500
Colorado - Under 5.5 500



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NCAAB

Friday, March 11Game Score Status Pick Amount


La Salle - 6:30 PM ET La Salle +9.5 500
Temple - Under 143.5 500

East Carolina - 6:30 PM ET East Carolina +3 500
Memphis - Over 131 500

Michigan St - 6:30 PM ET Purdue -7.5 500
Purdue - Under 131.5 500

Connecticut - 7:00 PM ET Syracuse -3.5 500
Syracuse - Over 137 500

Colorado - 7:00 PM ET Colorado +12 500
Kansas - Over 154 500

Akron - 7:00 PM ET Akron -2 500
Western Michigan - Over 137.5 500

Maryland - 7:00 PM ET Maryland +9 500
Duke - Under 147 500

Tennessee - 7:30 PM ET Florida -3.5 500
Florida - Under 130.5 500

Norfolk State - 8:20 PM ET Hampton -6 500
Hampton - Over 135.5 500

Penn St. - 8:50 PM ET Penn St. +7.5 500
Wisconsin - Under 119 500

Rhode Island - 9:00 PM ET Richmond -5.5 500
Richmond - Under 133.5 500

San Jose St. - 9:00 PM ET San Jose St. +14.5 500
Utah St. - Under 133.5 500

New Mexico - 9:00 PM ET New Mexico +4 500
Brigham Young - Over 146.5 500

Southern California - 9:00 PM ET Southern California -1 500
Arizona - Under 132.5 500

Alabama St. - 9:00 PM ET Texas Southern -2 500
Texas Southern - Under 118 500

Virginia Tech - 9:25 PM ET Florida St. +2 500
Florida St. - Over 127.5 500

Louisville - 9:25 PM ET Notre Dame -1 500
Notre Dame - Over 138 500

Ball St. - 9:25 PM ET Kent St. -5 500
Kent St. - Over 132.5 500

UC Riverside - 9:30 PM ET Long Beach St. -10 500
Long Beach St. - Under 137 500

Texas A&M - 9:30 PM ET Texas A&M +6 500
Texas - Over 124 500

Weber St. - 10:00 PM ET Weber St. +14.5 500
St. Mary's - Over 141.5 500

Vanderbilt - 10:00 PM ET Mississippi St. +5.5 500
Mississippi St. - Over 145 500

UNLV - 11:30 PM ET San Diego St. -1 500
San Diego St. - Under 124.5 500

Oregon - 11:30 PM ET Washington -9 500
Washington - Over 153 500

New Mexico St. - 11:55 PM ET New Mexico St. +3.5 500
Boise St. - Over 140 500

UC Santa Barbara - 11:55 PM ET UC Santa Barbara -4.5 500
CSU Northridge - Under 133.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Thunder heavily favored over Detroit


DETROIT PISTONS (23-42)

at OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (40-23)


Tip-off: Friday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Oklahoma City -9, Total: 207

The Thunder have owned the Eastern Conference this season, and that shouldn’t change with the lowly Pistons visiting on Friday night.

Among Western Conference teams, only the Spurs have a better SU record against the East than the Thunder, who are 17-6 SU and 12-11 ATS against Eastern Conference teams, including 9-2 SU and 6-5 ATS at home. As an added bonus, they could get Kendrick Perkins on the floor for his OKC debut. The big man has been out with a knee injury since being acquired at the trade deadline from Boston.

The Thunder had some trouble adjusting immediately after the trade deadline. In losing their third-best player in Jeff Green and playing without their biggest acquisition in Perkins, they dropped their first two games after the deal. But they’ve since reeled off four SU wins in five games (3-2 ATS). During that five-game stretch, they’ve often gone with a four-guard lineup and gotten a huge boost from Russell Westbrook’s near-MVP level performance (27.0 PPG on 52.1% FG, 9.6 APG) and outstanding play from sixth man James Harden (18.0 PPG on 49.2% FG, 23-for-24 FT).

As they have been the past two seasons, the Pistons are a completely unsettled. Head coach John Kuester, who was the target of a rumored player mutiny in late February, continues to make major changes to his rotation. After being part of the mass benching after half the roster skipped a late February practice, Rodney Stuckey responded by averaging 20.8 PPG on 48.3% FG and 8.0 APG while averaging more than 40 minutes over the next four games. In San Antonio Wednesday night, Stuckey found himself playing just 16 minutes off the bench behind useless veteran Tracy McGrady.

Despite a 2-11 SU record on the road against Western Conference teams, the Pistons have managed to go 6-7 ATS in those games. However, they’ve lost six of their past eight ATS on the road against the West. Detroit has shown the ability to keep teams close though. In their past five games as underdogs of nine points or more, they’re 4-1 ATS. And they’re 19-13 ATS (the third-best record among Eastern Conference teams) despite being just 7-25 SU in all road games this year.

The Thunder are 4-2 ATS as a favorite of nine points or more, and I think, considering how well their guards are playing right now, they make it 5-2 Friday night. My pick is Oklahoma City. The FoxSheets have a trend that shows the Thunder’s excellent recent offensive play should turn into an ATS win:

Play On - Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKLAHOMA CITY) - an excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 205 points or more 4 straight games. (27-6 since 1996, 81.8%, +20.4 units. Rating = 3*).

Although both these teams are riding Over streaks -- Detroit three straight Overs, Oklahoma City four straight Overs -- this highly-rated FoxSheets trend leans towards the Under.

Play Under - Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DETROIT) - after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season. (52-20 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.2%, +30 units. Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Banged-up Bulls host Atlanta on Friday


ATLANTA HAWKS (37-27)

at CHICAGO BULLS (45-18)


Tip-off: Friday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Chicago -7.5, Total:

Derrick Rose has figured out the NBA, putting himself firmly in the MVP discussion. But one team he hasn’t been able to figure out is the Atlanta Hawks.

Since drafting Rose as its new franchise player, Chicago is just 1-7 SU and ATS against Atlanta. Rose hasn’t necessarily been the culprit, but his only game against the Hawks this year might have been his worst performance of the season. With former teammate Kirk Hinrich harassing him, Rose scored just 12 points on 5-of-21 shooting from the field (missing all six of his threes) in an 83-80 loss in Atlanta on March 2. While he had 12 assists in that game, he also had six turnovers.

And Rose and the Bulls will have to do it without Carlos Boozer, who is out with an ankle injury. Luol Deng is listed as questionable with a thigh injury, but he expects to play Friday. Chicago has held its own without him this season, going 11-7 SU and 12-5-1 ATS in the 18 games Boozer has missed. While the Bulls have a capable fill-in in second-year power forward Taj Gibson, need all the frontcourt muscle they can find Friday night. In that March 2 loss, they couldn’t contain Al Horford. The Hawks big man went for 31 points and 16 rebounds (seven on the offensive end).

But the Jekyll-and-Hyde Hawks have been brutal since that win, though. They’ve lost three in a row, SU and ATS, each of them at home. After a respectable showing in a home loss to the Thunder last Friday they got injured power forward Josh Smith back in the lineup. But instead of improving, they bottomed out with horrendous performances against the Knicks and Lakers. They scored just 79 points against New York, laughable considering the Knicks’ lack of defense. They were outclassed by L.A. in a 14-point loss. Joe Johnson hasn’t been able to find the range since the All-Star break, shooting 2-for-23 from behind the arc over his past five games.

Although Atlanta is 7-1 (SU and ATS) in the past eight meetings with Chicago, the Bulls have the NBA’s best home ATS record (19-11-1) and the Eastern Conference’s best SU home record (27-4) this season. Even without Boozer, Chicago still has enough firepower to win comfortably over the struggling Hawks.

The FoxSheets show two more reasons to side with the Bulls:

CHICAGO is 30-15 ATS (66.7%, +13.5 Units) after having won 4 or 5 of its last 6 games this season. The average score was CHICAGO 96.5, OPPONENT 88.7 - (Rating = 2*).

ATLANTA is 8-22 ATS (26.7%, -16.2 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season. The average score was ATLANTA 90.2, OPPONENT 96.9 - (Rating = 2*).

Both the Bulls (3rd, 62%) and Hawks (5th, 58%) rank in the NBA’s Top 5 in terms of highest percentage of games finishing Under the total, and this highly-rated FoxSheets trend likes the Under as a good side bet for Friday’s game.

CHICAGO is 18-4 UNDER (81.8%, +13.6 Units) after allowing 85 points or less this season. The average score was CHICAGO 92.7, OPPONENT 86.0 - (Rating = 3*).