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**StarDust Bum** · 03-09-2011, 07:30 PM

NCAA Odds: Butler, 'Zags return to March Madness

A No. 5 seed last season, Butler projects in the 10-11 range for this year’s dance.
Their status has slipped a bit from a year ago, but the Bulldogs of both Butler and Gonzaga are preparing to dance once again.

Butler brought the number to 11 teams to clinch an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament with Tuesday night's 59-44 triumph in the Horizon League Championship over the Milwaukee Panthers. Despite playing in the comfort of their home arena for the title tilt, the Panthers struggled offensively and fell into an early big hole they couldn't climb out.

The two teams went almost three minutes midway through the first half without scoring a single point between them, Butler finally breaking that spell to build a 17-point lead on a Shelvin Mack layup. Tuesday's triumph marked the Bulldogs' second consecutive HL title, third in the past four seasons, with an 11th trip to March Madness now on deck.

Gonzaga punched its ticket to the dance with Monday's win over Saint Mary's in the West Coast Conference Championship, 75-63. The victory marked the 11th WCC tournament crown since 1995 for the 'Zags and ensures their 13th-straight trip to the NCAA Tournament.

Head coaches Mark Few and Brad Stevens will each be guiding teams with nine-game win streaks when regional action begins next week. Gonzaga went 6-2 versus the NCAA odds in its closing run, 5-3 to the 'under' in that span. Butler's closing stretch included a 5-3-1 ATS mark and the same record to the low side of the totals during their streak.

Both teams are also going to be seeded lower in this year's tourney. Butler was a No. 5 seed in 2010 when it finished just two points shy of Duke in the NCAA Championship Game. Gonzaga was seeded eighth, bowing out in the second round to West Region top seed Syracuse in the second round. Butler then halted Syracuse in the ensuing Sweet 16 round.

Here's a quick look at the 11 schools to qualify for the field of 68 so far. Note that the RPI listings below reflected action through March 8.

Atlantic Sun - Belmont Bruins
Records: 30-4 SU; 16-6 ATS; 5-3 'under'
RPI Rating: 52
Projected Seed: No. 11

Big South - UNC Asheville Bulldogs
Records: 19-13 SU; 10-9 ATS; 2-1 'under'
RPI Rating: 149
Projected Seed: No. 16

Colonial - Old Dominion Monarchs
Records: 27-6 SU; 14-14-2 ATS; 15-13 'over'
RPI Rating: 23
Projected Seed: No. 8

Horizon League - Butler Bulldogs
Records: 23-9 SU, 15-13-2 ATS; 17-12 'over'
RPI Rating: 37
Projected Seed: No. 11

Metro Atlantic - St. Peter's Peacocks
Records: 20-13 SU; 19-7-1 ATS; 15-10 'under'
RPI Rating: 96
Projected Seed: No. 15

Missouri Valley - Indiana State Sycamores
Records: 20-13 SU; 9-19-2 ATS; 14-14 'over/under'
RPI Rating: 85
Projected Seed: No. 14

Ohio Valley - Morehead State Eagles
Records: 24-9 SU; 17-11 ATS; 15-12 'over'
RPI Rating: 77
Projected Seed: No. 14

Southern - Wofford Terriers
Records: 21-12 SU; 17-15 ATS; 18-10 'over'
RPI Rating: 107
Projected Seed: No. 15

Sun Belt - Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans
Records: 19-16 SU; 17-16 ATS; 17-14 'over'
RPI Rating: 200
Projected Seed: No. 16 (play-in)

Summit - Oakland Golden Grizzlies
Records: 25-9 SU; 21-11-1 ATS; 16-6-1 'over'
RPI Rating: 58
Projected Seed: No. 14

West Coast - Gonzaga Bulldogs
Records: 24-9 SU; 16-12-1 ATS; 19-9 'under'
RPI Rating: 54
Projected Seed: No. 10

**StarDust Bum** · 03-09-2011, 07:31 PM

NHL Betting: Canucks visit San Jose Sharks

The San Jose Sharks have taken 11 of the last 15 versus Vancouver.
Both the Vancouver Canucks and San Jose Sharks hope that this is the season that they'll be able to lift Lord Stanley's Cup. Both are in good shape right now to challenge for the push to the postseason, and the two will meet in NHL betting action on Thursday night.

The puck hits the HP Pavilion ice Thursday night at 7:30 (PT).

Vancouver has rolled off three straight wins and is getting closer to clinching the Northwest Division title. Coming into play on Wednesday, the Canucks have a 16-point advantage on the Calgary Flames with just 14 games to go, making it almost a certainty that they will be division champs.

They're also nine points clear of the Detroit Red Wings for the top seed in the West, but the men from Motown do have two games in hand at the moment.

The Canucks are already guaranteed a winning road trip, as they have started off at 3-0 by beating the LA Kings, Anaheim Ducks and Phoenix Coyotes. Some of the numbers that the squad has assembled are really just borderline insane by NHL betting standards.

Vancouver is averaging 3.2 GPG against 2.2 GPG allowed. The team ranks in the Top 10 in every major category, including SPG (31.9), power play percentage (24.0%), faceoff percentage (55.4%), shots against (30.0), and penalty killing (86.3%). Simply put, with stars like Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin, Ryan Kesler, and Roberto Luongo, there really isn't a team that is build anything like this one.

San Jose is one of the hottest teams in hockey, and it is really showing in the standings. A once very tight Pacific Division race has blown up to a five-point advantage for the Sharks, though the Dallas Stars and the rest of the division are right on their heels as well. San Jose is two points behind Detroit and 11 behind Vancouver in the chase for the top seed in the division.

Sure, the Sharks saw their eight game winning streak go by the boards with a 3-2 loss at home to the Stars over the weekend, but they did start off their week by taking down the Nashville Predators in the fourth game of this six game home stand 3-2 in OT.

No, there aren't men like the Sedin brothers on this team that are just raking up points at an insane rate, but there definitely are plenty of stars. Dany Heatley has 22 goals and 33 assists this year, and he is the leader for a team that already has four men with 50+ points and six with 44 or more points. Heatley is also one of the three goal scorers on this team that has at least 22 strikes, with Patrick Marleau leading the team with 27 and Logan Couture just behind him with 25.

The big question mark for San Jose on Thursday is whether Dan Boyle, one of the top scoring defensemen in the game, will be able to play with his upper body injury. Boyle has six goals and 31 assists this season, but he has been out of the lineup since February 23.

The Canucks are just 4-11 in their last 15 tries against the Sharks, making this one of the few teams that they really haven't had extended success against. The home team is also 9-4 over the course of the last 13 meetings.

However, the guests have won the last two clashes, with San Jose claiming a 2-1 win in a shootout at GM Place, and the Canucks winning here 4-3 at the Shark Tank. Vancouver also has a 6-1 win over San Jose to its credit from back in November this season, giving it the 2-1 series edge to date.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-09-2011, 07:32 PM

Hot LA Lakers visit Miami Heat for marquee NBA odds clash

Miami is just 3-10 since January when facing clubs with winning records.
If some Miami Heat players were moved to tears following this past Sunday’s loss to Chicago, there must have been a flood after the Heat lost at home again to Portland on Tuesday.

Miami brings a five-game losing streak to its Thursday home matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers at 5:05 p.m. PT on TNT.

Outside of South Florida, there is little sympathy for LeBron James and the struggling Heat. James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Co. might want to actually win an NBA title before celebrating like they did prior to this season beginning.

The Heat are 2-6 since the All-Star break. They have failed to cover in their last seven games and are 0-5 ATS during their past five home contests.

The streaking Lakers are going the opposite way. They stumbled into the All-Star break on a three-game losing streak with appalling road losses to Orlando, Charlotte and even, gulp, Cleveland.

But since then, the Lakers have tightened their defense and ripped off eight consecutive victories. Los Angeles has held its past eight foes to an average of 87 points on 40 percent shooting from the field while going 7-1 ATS during its win streak.

The two-time defending world champions had allowed an average of 97.5 points per game and 46.3 percent shooting from Jan. 12-Feb. 16 when they went a mediocre 10-8.

Phil Jackson and his coaching staff tweaked the Lakers’ defense, Kobe Bryant is showing why he’s a 13-time All-Star and center Andrew Bynum has pulled down 16 or more rebounds in his last three games as Los Angeles is back to elite status.

The same can’t be said for Miami.

James may be the best player in the league and Wade is right up there, too. But the Heat have a number of serious holes. They lack good pivot play, their bench is weak and Bosh appears overrated.

The Heat have dominated weaker clubs, but are just 3-10 versus above-.500 teams since January and 1-9 against the five teams that have better records.

James has scored 25 or more points in eight games – one short of a Miami team record – but lately has missed a number of clutch shots as three of the Heat’s loses during their skid have occurred in the final seconds.

Only once all season have the Heat scored a basket when down three or less points in the final 10 seconds of the fourth quarter or overtime.

An early season injury to Udonis Haslem, the Heat’s best rebounder and a top defender, really hurt their frontcourt.

Miami’s reserves scored only six points against the Bulls and were outscored, 41-8, during a 105-96 loss this past Tuesday to Portland. Miami was 8 ½-point home favorites with the combined 201 points going ‘over’ the 187 ½-point total.

Wade scored 38 points in the loss to the Trail Blazers. James had 31 points, 11 rebounds and eight assists. Bosh only had seven points, though, in 40 minutes.

Bryant had 26 points in Los Angeles’ latest victory, 101-87, against Atlanta this past Tuesday as 4 ½-point road ‘chalk.’ The combined 188 points went ‘over’ the 183 ½-point total. Bynum contributed 16 points, 16 rebounds and three blocked shots.

The Lakers have covered in eight of their last nine road games when facing an opponent with a winning home record.

The ‘under’ has cashed in 24 of the Lakers’ last 33 games versus Eastern Conference foes. The ‘under’ has cashed five of the past six times the Lakers have met the Heat in Miami.

Miami has covered in its last five games against the Lakers, who no doubt can gear up for the Heat’s “A” game. The question is even if Miami is sky-high for the home matchup, are the Heat good enough to beat the Lakers right now?

**StarDust Bum** · 03-09-2011, 07:33 PM

NCAA Betting: Maryland collides with NC State

The Maryland, North Carolina State winner will battle Duke on Friday.
Greensboro Coliseum is the site of this year’s ACC Tournament with the Maryland Terrapins versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack one of Thursday’s opening games.

Maryland is an early 5 ½-point favorite at Bookmaker.com, with the total still to be released.

Duke (plus 110) is the tourney favorite, followed by North Carolina (plus 140), Maryland (plus 700) and Clemson (plus 1000). NC State is one of the long shots at plus 3600.

The underachieving Terrapins (18-13 straight-up, 10-15 against the spread) are getting a lot of respect with the third-best tournament odds. After all, Maryland is only a seventh seed after a 7-9 SU conference mark.

Coach Gary Williams saw his team make the NCAA tournament the last two years, but will have to win this tourney and get the automatic bid to make it three straight. Athletic Director Kevin Anderson says Williams’ job is not in jeopardy, but he wasn’t afraid to pull the trigger on football coach Ralph Friedgen.

Maryland is on a three-game losing streak (0-3 ATS). Losses at North Carolina (87-76) and Miami (80-66) were somewhat acceptable, but a 74-60 home loss to Virginia as 12-point favorites last Saturday was not.

The Virginia game was Senior Day for the trio of Dino Gregory (9.0 PPG), Adrian Bowie (9.0 PPG) and Cliff Tucker (9.5 PPG). They all got the start and combined for 25 points.

Sophomore ‘big’ Jordan Williams (16.9 PPG, 11.6 RPG) has been the main man all year and made first team all-ACC. Freshman point guard Terrell Stoglin (11.6 PPG) has turned up his scoring the last six games at 20.7 PPG.

The 134 combined points scored against Virginia went ‘over’ the 133 ½-point total. The ‘over’ is 7-1 in Maryland’s last eight games with totals, surrendering 77.5 PPG compared to 67 PPG on the season.

Maryland hasn’t won away from home since Jan. 30 at Georgia Tech (74-63). It is 0-4 SU and ATS on the road since then.

North Carolina State (15-15 SU, 10-15-1 ATS) is seeded 10th after another disappointing year under coach Sidney Lowe. He’s 86-77 SU in his five years, never making an NCAA tournament. The former point guard from the 1983 national championship team will likely be coaching his last game.

NC State went 5-11 SU and 4-11-1 ATS in the ACC. That includes ending the season at 1-3 SU and 0-3-1 ATS.

Senior forward Tracy Smith (14.1 PPG, 5.6 RPG) is the leading scorer and it will be his job to contain Jordan Williams, with help from backup Richard Howell.

Despite the Lowe situation, there is optimism surrounding the program with three freshmen starters in small forward C.J. Leslie (11.2 PPG, 7.1 RPG) and guards Lorenzo Brown (9.4 PPG) and Ryan Harrow (9.3 PPG). Sophomore forward Scott Wood (9.9 PPG) is the final member of the starting five.

The teams met Feb. 20 in College Park with Maryland getting an 87-80 home win. Williams dominated inside with 26 points and Stoglin and Gregory had 25 and 18 respetively. Howell got hurt in that game and played just two minutes.

The Wolfpack did ‘cover’ against Maryland as 10-point ‘dogs. Maryland was 8-0 ATS in the previous eight encounters.

There are no significant injuries to report for either team.

ESPN2 will have the broadcast at 4 p.m. (PT). The winner gets the unenviable task of facing the second-seed Duke Blue Devils.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-09-2011, 07:34 PM

NBA Betting Preview: Denver at Phoenix Suns

The home team is 5-0 SU, 4-0-1 ATS when the Suns and Nuggets meet.
While most of the focus this time of year is on March Madness, there is still plenty of action going on the pro hardwood. Denver (37-27 straight up, 30-31-3 against the spread) concludes a brief three-game road against Phoenix (33-29 SU, 28-32-2 ATS) trip trying to get back on the winning track.

The Nuggets currently find themselves in second place in the Northwest Division standings. Denver presently resides in fifth place in the Western Conference, but just a game and a half separates fifth from eighth.

The Suns find themselves a game and a half behind Memphis for the eighth and final postseason slot. Phoenix remains in second place in the Pacific Division, but a sizeable 11 ½ games behind the Los Angeles Lakers.

Don Best's Real-Time Odds has the Suns 3 ½-point home ‘chalk’ over Denver, with the total set at 214 ½. Thursday’s contest at Phoenix’s US Airways Center begins at 7:30 p.m. (PT).

Denver was riding a three-game SU winning streak before falling to the Los Angeles Clippers Saturday as a two-point road underdog, 100-94. The combined 194 points never seriously threatened the 208-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ cash the fourth consecutive contest. The Nuggets had covered seven games in a row before their setback to the Clippers.

Denver outrebounded Los Angeles, 56-37, and forced more turnovers, 16-11, but the Clippers delivered more assists, 25-21. The Nuggets shot 39 percent (40-of-102) from the field and 21 percent (3-of-14) from behind the arc, but allowed their opponents to shoot 47 percent (35-of-74) from the field.

Center Nene paced the Denver offense with 25 points while tying a season high with 14 rebounds. Power forward Kenyon Martin had 11 points in the setback, while point guard Ty Lawson added 11 and eight assists.

Phoenix has alternated SU wins and losses its last five games after outlasting Houston Tuesday as a four-point home favorite, 113-110. The combined 223 points toppled the 218 ½-point closing total, helping the ‘over’ improve to 7-2 the previous nine outings. The Suns had covered back-to-back games before facing the Rockets.

Phoenix prevailed after outscoring Houston in the fourth quarter, 34-28. The Suns ended the contest with advantages rebounding, 41-36, and assists, 28-21, while shooting a blistering 54 percent (44-of-81) from the field and 54 percent (7-of-13) from 3-point land.

Power forward Hakim Warrick stepped up with 32 points and eight rebounds in the triumph, while guard Vince Carter added 32 and six. Forward Grant Hill had 19 and four assists, while point guard Steve Nash provided nine and 14.

The home team has won the last five games SU in the Denver-Phoenix series while going 4-0-1 ATS. The Nuggets won the latest encounter Jan. 11 as a 4 ½-point home ‘chalk,’ 132-98. The combined 230 points eclipsed the 218 ½-point closing total, helping the ‘over’ improve to 3-1 the previous four meetings.

Denver forward Danilo Gallinari (toe) and guard Arron Afflalo (ankle) are expected to be ‘out’ versus the Suns. The Nuggets host Detroit their next game before embarking on a four-game East Coast road trip. Denver has seen the ‘over’ go 9-4 its last 13 road games.

Phoenix center Channing Frye is expected to miss the next couple of weeks due to an injured shoulder. The Suns concludes their three-game homestand with Sunday’s matchup against Orlando. Phoenix has seen the ‘under’ go 8-1 its past nine Thursday games.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-09-2011, 07:38 PM

Big Ten Notes - First Round
March 9, 2011

The college hoops marathon shows no signs of slowing down as we near closer to Selection Sunday. Thursday afternoon will mark the beginning of this year’s Big Ten tournament at the Conseco Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana.

First round action kicks off with some underachieving with the Wildcats facing the Golden Gophers. Then we’ll see the Spartans take on the Hawkeyes, with the night closing out between the Nittany Lions and Hoosiers.

It’s going to take a miracle for any of these teams to cut down the nets. Anyone can figure that out since these programs are in the “field” bet at plus-700 (risk $100 to win $700). But we should also remember that there have been five teams that made the championship game coming out of the opening round. And Iowa won the whole shebang back in 2001 as the sixth seed versus Indiana (remember when they were good?).

Northwestern vs. Minnesota – 2:30 p.m. EST, ESPN2

Maybe it’s just me, but I expected more out of both of these teams. The sportsbooks don’t even put much stock in either side by making this game a pick ‘em on Tuesday afternoon.

Northwestern (17-12 straight up, 11-12 against the spread) looked like they would finally make the big dance this year for the first time with an expanded field. The Wildcats opened up the year 9-1 SU and 4-1 ATS before making it to Big Ten play. Conference games were their own personal hell, going 7-11 SU and ATS this season.

Minnesota (17-13 SU, 10-18 ATS) was looking to build upon its NCAA bid from a year ago. They looked a lot like Northwestern in the respect that the Golden Gophers started the season 11-1 SU and 5-5 ATS. The moment Tubby Smith took his team into the Big Ten season, they stumbled to a 6-12 SU and 5-11ATS. And that includes Devoe Joseph running away to his mommy after two games into conference play.

Neither of these teams are going to give you a boost at the betting shop if you back them right now. The Gophers come into this first round matchup having failed to cover the spread in five consecutive games and nine of their last 10. The Wildcats are on a 2-6 ATS slide coming into this test.

The season series was a split between both teams on their respective home courts. But Northwestern should hold the slight edge having beating the Golden Gophers 78-63 as a 3 ½-point home favorite on March 2. Minny held the field goal (44%-37%) and rebounding (32-27) advantage in that game. Yet they shot just 18 percent from beyond the arc. Northwestern hit 33 percent of its three-point shots, which was the real difference maker. John Shurna put in 15 points, while Alex Marcotullio paced the ‘Cats with 18 points.

As far as bettors should care, Minnesota has been the right wager when they face off in recent history on the money line. The Golden Gophers are 7-3 SU, but just 5-5 ATS in the last 10 matchups with Northwestern. The Wildcats have been the team to play on the cover though, going 3-1 ATS in the last four contests with Smith’s crew.

Northwestern has seen the ‘under’ go 4-2 in its last six Big Ten games. The Gophers have seen the ‘under’ go 6-4 in their last 10 conference battles.

The winner of this game gets to take on No. 1 Ohio State in the quarterfinals on Friday at 12:00 p.m. EST on ESPN. That could be a good spot to wager on either of these teams since the Buckeyes played down to both of them during the year.

Michigan State vs. Iowa – 5:00 p.m. EST, ESPN2

The betting shops have opened the Spartans as seven-point favorites in this first round affair.

It’s hard to think that this Michigan State (17-13 SU, 10-18-1 ATS) team was ranked No. 2 in the nation before the season got underway. Now the Spartans are just trying to play their way off of the proverbial bubble for the NCAA tournament.

Tom Izzo’s club enters this game having dropped two of its last three games, going 1-2 ATS in that stretch. The Spartans fell 70-63 to the hated Wolverines as one-point road faves last Saturday. Kalin Lucas gave his all to MSU’s cause in the losing effort with 25 points, three boards and a pair of assists. Yet they couldn’t answer Tim Hardaway Jr. scoring his 20 points in the second half as Michigan completed a very surprising season sweep.

Iowa (11-19 SU, 13-15 ATS) feels a bit better about its chances in this game now than they did about a week ago. The Hawkeyes closed out the regular season with a 67-65 win over Purdue as 9 ½-point home favorites last Saturday afternoon. Iowa was a team effort in this game with four players scoring in the double-digits. Jarryd Cole came up large for the Hawkeyes in the win with 16 points and 10 boards in the win.

These two split the season series with the home squad winning and covering the number. But Michigan State holds a distinctive edge with a 7-2 SU record against the Hawks over the last nine head-to-head meetings. Iowa, however, has cashed for our purposes more often by going 5-4 ATS. The ‘under’ is holding a slight edge with a 3-2 mark in the last five clashes.

We saw this matchup just last week as MSU drilled the Hawks 85-66 as an 11-point home “chalk” on March 2.

The Spartans have been horrid as single-digit favorites this year, evidenced by a 6-7 SU and 3-9-1 ATS record. Iowa is 4-7 SU and 6-5 ATS as a single-digit underdog in Fran McCaffery’s first year as head coach.

The Hawkeyes have seen the totals go 14-14-1 for them this season, but are currently on a 4-1 ‘over’ run. MSU, on the other hand, has watched the ‘under’ go 17-12. Yet Sparty has cashed the ‘over’ in their last two games.

Purdue awaits the winner of this game at 6:30 p.m. EST on ESPN on Friday.

Penn State vs. Indiana – 7:30 p.m. EST, Big Ten Network

You have to really love college hoops or at least went to one of these schools to be interested in this game. Well, unless you have a dollar or two on the outcome.

Penn State (16-13 SU, 14-11 ATS) has been tabbed as a 4 ½-point favorite for the final first round game of the day in Indy.

The Nittany Lions had the look of a team that had a chance of being in the big dance this season, but couldn’t get out of their own way on many occasions. But they still closed out the year with a 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS to allow for hope to remain.

PSU enters this contest having trumped the Golden Gophers 66-63 as a five-point road pup last Sunday afternoon. Talor Battle and Jeff Brooks led the charge by themselves for the Nittany Lions, scoring 22 and 20 points respectively. Plus, Brooks grabbed seven rebounds in the win.

Indiana (12-19 SU, 9-15 ATS) is looking for the sweet release that the death of this season will bring for Tom Crean’s crew. The Hoosiers finished off their regular season with a 72-48 setback against Illinois, failing to cover as 10-point road underdogs. They hit just 31 percent from the field against the Illini. Verdell Jones III was the only Hoosier to show up (if you can say that) with 12 points and seven boards.

Penn State won the lone meeting between these schools 69-60 as a 6 ½-poit road pup on Dec. 27. The Nittany Lions shot 54 percent from the field in that contest. Indiana, on the other hand, shot just 43 percent from the floor. Brooks came through with 23 points and eight rebounds in that matchup. Battle poured in 19 points and six boards of his own.

Nobody should be surprised by the Nittany Lions winning that game early in the season. PSU has posted a 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS record against the Hoosiers in the last six head-to-head meetings. Play hard on the ‘under’ as it has cashed tickets in all six of those games.

PSU has gone 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS when listed as a single-digit favorite this season. The ‘under’ is 4-3 during those tests.

Crean’s kids have not been great as a single-digit pup, evidenced by a 2-7 SU mark. But they did at least go 4-5 ATS in that same span.

No matter which team wins this game, they’re visit to Indianapolis will no doubt be short lived. That’s because Wisconsin will be their next opponent at 9:00 p.m. EST on Big Ten Network on Friday.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-09-2011, 07:39 PM

West Coast Update
March 9, 2011

We’ve reached midweek, and tournament action in the four remaining western conferences begins on Wednesday. Mountain West, Pac-10, and WAC festivities get underway later today, and all are briefly previewed, along with today’s matchups, below. The Big West begins its fun at the Anaheim Honda Center on Thursday, when we will begin our daily reports on that loop’s festivities, taking place not far from Disneyland. We’ll also be reviewing the day’s events and previewing upcoming action with the three previously-mentioned leagues throughout the week.
Following are quick previews and matchups for the three conferences kicking things off on Wednesday.

MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT

All teams compete. First round March 9 with #8 vs. #9. Quarterfinals March 10 with #1 seed vs. #8-#9 winner, #4 vs. #5, #2 vs. #7, and #3 vs. #6. Semifinals March 11. Final March 12. All games at Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, Nevada (home court of UNLV). LY's WINNER: San Diego State +4' beat UNLV 55-45.

TEAM TO BEAT: San Diego State...Unlike recent seasons, the Aztecs enter Las Vegas with their NCAA bid in hand, which in a sense might make SDSU a bit more vulnerable. But aside from the pair of losses this season vs. BYU, the Aztecs were clearly the class of the league, and Brandon Davies’ suspension from the Cougar roster is enough to make SDSU the favorite in this event despite its number two seed. Should a third matchup vs. BYU materialize, SDSU would figure to have the edge, as the Cougs would not have Davies to help neutralize mobile Aztec frontliner Kawhi Leonard and Malcolm Thomas. But the Aztecs, given their sure-thing NCAA status, are more vulnerable than most realize this week.

TOP CONTENDER: UNLV...We won’t even give BYU this spot as we believe the Cougars are severely hampered by Davies’ suspension (although they’ve had more than a week to adjust to his absence by now). The Rebels have won this event on their home floor numerous times (although not since 2008) and enter this event as arguably the loop’s hottest team, with five straight wins. Improved three-point shooting over the last four games (UNLV was hitting just 29% beyond the arc in MWC action prior) has fueled the recent charge, with the development of young bigs Carlos Lopez and Quintrell Thomas an unexpected bonus for HC Lon Kruger. Note, however, that the Rebs have failed to cover their last 7 at the Thomas & Mack Center (we’ll talk more about that on Thursday with the quarterfinal matchup vs. Air Force).

DARKHORSE: New Mexico...It’s surprising how many MWC observers believe the Lobos have a real chance in Vegas. New Mexico’s last five losses have all been by 6 points or fewer, with five losses this season by three points or fewer. The Lobos, however, have some confidence at the moment with three straight wins, including an 82-64 blowout win at BYU last Wednesday when the Lobos punished the Brandon Davies-less Cougars. That was also the second time this season New Mexico has beaten BYU, so you can see why Steve Alford’s crew might think it has a good chance to make it a hat-trick if it can hook the Cougs (as expected) in the semifinals. First, however, New Mexico must get pasta tough 4-5 game on Thursday vs. Colorado State. which also might think it can take out BYU sans Davies. Note that the Lobos’ 6-9 UCLA transfer F Drew Gordon hauled in a league-record-for-juniors 189 rebounds in conference games. New Mexico will also be well-supported in Las Vegas, with 3000-4000 Lobo fans expected to make the trip from Albuquerque. We would not be terribly surprised if neither San Diego State nor Davies-less BYU made it to the final game.

Wednesday's first-round matchup:

Wyoming vs. Tcu...Adding what little intrigue exists in this matchup are rumors from Fort Worth that TCU HC Jim Christian might be on his way out the door in wake of the 13 straight losses to finish the Horned Frogs’ season, with move to Big East (ouch!) slated for 2012-13 campaign. Keep an eye on reports that ex-UTEP, Texas A&M, & Kentucky HC Billy Gillispie might surface at the new Frogs coach. MWC sources prefer Wyo’s athleticism but not its work ethic, which has been absent on defensive end since interim HC Fred Langley has decided to simply roll the balls onto the court and let Cowboys run to their heart’s content.

The numbers are a bit scary both ways; TCU enters having lost 13 in a row SU (hence Christian’s iffy job status), covering only nine of those. Wyo, which had a brief 4-game cover streak in early February, enters having covered just one of its last five games. The recent trend to note, however, is the Cowboys’ string of "overs" (3 straight and 5 of last 6), no surprise given Langley’s desire to go up-tempo.

WESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT

Top 8 teams compete. First round March 9 with #5 vs. #8 and #6 vs. #7. Quarterfinals March 10 with #4 vs. #5-#8 winner and #3 vs. #6-#7 winner. Semifinals March 11. Final March 12. All games at Orleans Hotel Arena, Las Vegas, NV. LY's WINNER: New Mexico State +9' beat Utah State 69-63.

TEAM TO BEAT: Utah State...The Utags enter Las Vegas with a 28-3 mark, better than a year ago when Stew Morrill’s side was beaten in the conference tourney final but still ended up with an NCAA at-large bid. Longtime USU backers, however, will want to take nothing for granted, with memories of the Selection Committee denying a 4-loss Utag team an invitation during its days in the Big West earlier in the last decade still fresh in their minds. We don’t think they have much to worry about this season. That’s because this USU edition has a bit more pop than a familiar-looking side from a year ago thanks to new PG Brockeith Pane, a JC transfer and former Houston Cougar who has added far more athleticism to the spot than we have normally seen from Morrill’s point guards (most recently the steady Jared Quayle). Meanwhile, sr. F Tai Wesley was named WAC Player of the Year, and there are always Morrill’s myriad defensive schemes and looks that can adjust to any style of opponent. We were not terribly stunned that the Utags lost in this event last year at Reno; we’d be downright shocked if they don’t prevail this time, even with their NCAA bid secure.

TOP CONTENDER: Boise State...Although Idaho (the only team to beat the Utags in conference play) might seem a more-likely choice as the top contender, we instead opt for hot Boise, which brings a 7-game win streak into Las Vegas as the conference’s second seed, which also means a bye into the semifinal round of this event. Moreover, the Broncos have already played once at the Orleans Arena this season (vs. UNLV back in December), so they’ll have a bit more familiarity with the surroundings than everyone else. The senior-laden squad finally started to get the hang of the schemes of first-year HC Leon Rice, who had spent the past several seasons as Mark Few’s top tactician at Gonzaga. Improved defensive work down the stretch, when the Broncos held three of their final four foes to fewer than 60 points, suggests we might want to discount their 45.3% FG defense, which ranked last in the league. Senior G La’Shard Anderson enters the tourney as one of the WAC’s hottest players, scoring 21.8 ppg in his last four games.

DARKHORSE: Hawaii...The Warriors get no scheduling breaks in Vegas and will have to win four games in as many days to prevail. But Hawaii was playing almost as well as Boise in recent weeks, and enters Vegas having covered 9 of its last 12 games. The Warriors also had a five-game SU win streak snapped in the regular-season finale at Fresno State. First-year HC Gib Arnold impressed with his tactics, especially on the defensive end where the Warriors allowed only 39.2% FGs. Meanwhile, the attack developed a sharper edge as 6'9 PF Bill Amis returned from injury to score 15.1 ppg, making for a nice inside portion to a scoring combo that also features explosive 6'6 combo G Zane Johnson, an Arizona transfer tallying a team-best 15.8 ppg. An unexpected sparkplug in recent weeks has been PG Miah Ostrowski, a walk-on from the football team who was mostly excellent in relief of sr. PG Hiram Thompson, whose availability for WAC Tourney action after an elbow injury was iffy.

Wednesday's first-round matchups:

Hawaii vs. San Jose State...Here’s a quick rematch from Hawaii’s 77-71 win last Thursday in San Jose. For the Spartans to reverse matters, they’re going to have to solve Gib Arnold’s defense that has shadowed Spartans’ WAC top scorer Adrian Oliver (24.3 ppg), held to mere 14 ppg in two reg.-season meetings when he connected on a mere 8 of 26 from floor in the two games combined. San Jose also had lots of trouble coping with Hawaii’s 6-9 PF Bill Amis, who hit a combined 18 of 27 from floor in the two Warrior wins and covers vs. Spartans. Spread-wise, despite Saturday’s loss at Fresno, Hawaii was a definite go-with proposition (9-3 vs. line last 12) down stretch. The Warriors are also "over" their last five and 7 of their last 8. As for San Jose, it has been a very streak spread performer this season; at the moment the Spartans have failed to cover their last two. San Jose has also dropped 4 of its last 5 spread decisions away from its home Event Center, is also "under" 4 of is last 5.

Nevada vs. Fresno State...Must duly noted the mild Fresno uprising in recent weeks, with Bulldogs winning SU in 3 of their last 5 outings. And the return to active duty of jr. F Tim Steed from suspension is especially good news against Nevada, against who Steed scored 26 and 20 points, respectively, in the pair of regular-season meetings. But a Bulldog recommendation is a risky one, especially considering FSU’s WAC-low 62.6% FT shooting and often-sluggish offense scoring only 67.2 ppg, ahead of only lowly La Tech in WAC rankings. Meanwhile, Nevada’s chances will be greatly enhanced if usually-reliable G Malik Story (13.6 ppg) rediscovers shooting eye that deserted him in last three games when connecting on only 8 of 37 from floor.

Spread-wise, there isn’t much to highlight either way, save for perhaps Fresno’s four covers in as many meetings vs. the Wolf Pack since last season.

PACIFIC 10 CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT

All teams compete. Opening round March 9 with #8 vs. #9 and #7 vs. #10. Quarterfinals March 10 with #1 vs. #8-#9 winner, #2 vs. #7-#10 winner, #3 vs. #6, and #4 vs. #5. Semifinals March 11. Final March 12. All games at Staples Center, Los Angeles. LY's WINNER: Washington +2 beat California 79-75.

TEAM TO BEAT: UCLA...This is a soft recommendation, as we would not be surprised if 6 or even 7 different teams won this event at Staples Center. But the Bruins at least have the hometown edge (along with Southern Cal, whose campus is even closer to Staples), and have been the most consistent Pac-10 performer since mid-January, winning 13 of their last 16. Check the status of PG Malcolm Lee, who could sit out the Bruins’ first game on Thursday with a knee injury suffered last weekend at Washington State, but Ben Howland has seen others step to the fore, including soph PF Reeves Nelson and Shaq-like 6'11 frosh C Joshua Smith, who has given hints of what sort of a monster he might eventually become.

TOP CONTENDER: Southern Cal...The other local entry has proven it can beat anyone in the conference (except Oregon) and for that matter anyone in the country, having won at Texas and Tennessee and Washington and almost winning at Kansas as well. When the mood strikes, the Trojans can be a load, although the team has demonstrated a bipolar performance pattern all season (some bad losses include that pair to the Ducks, plus Oregon State, TCU, Bradley, and a 20-point pasting courtesy Rider). Troy’s 6'10 C Nicola Vucevic (17.1 ppg) is a versatile threat, but also SC’s only consistent scorer, with the likes of Fordham transfer G Jio Fontan and backcourt mate Donte Smith often blowing hot and cold, and team FT shooting (hovering around 65% most of the season) has been a concern. Coach Kevin O’Neill’s defensive bag of tricks is always likely to discombobulate an opponent. And, for what it’s worth, we prefer both UCLA and SC over regular-season champ Arizona, which was humbled against both the Bruins and Trojans in its trip to the L.A. area two weeks ago.

DARKHORSE: Cal...Interestingly, Cal meets SC in a first-round game on Thursday; we wouldn’t be surprised if the winner of that one goes on to steal the tourney crown. Although the Golden Bears didn’t appear to be capable of such a run for most of the season, they do now, especially with frosh 2-G Allen Crabbe (23 ppg last 3; 11 of 18 triples in those games) emerging as a legit go-to threat. Crabbe’s emergence means shrewd HC Mike Montgomery now has enough pieces to make things work, as Crabbe is complemented in the backcourt by jr. QB Jorge Gutierrez, while bruising frontliners Harper Kamp Markhuri Sanders-Frison provide a punishing presence on the blocks. Most of all, there’s Montgomery on the sidelines, perhaps Cal’s biggest advantage of all.

Wednesday's first-round matchups:

Stanford vs. Oregon State...Stanford had held the tactical edge on Craig Robinson’s OSU and its modified Princeton looks on the attack end the past two seasons (with Cardinal winning and covering 4 in a row, the last 3 by DD margins) prior to a Feb. 24 loss at Corvallis when Beavers hit an uncommon 62% from floor. Can that happen again? Keep in mind, however, that Stanford was 50% or better from floor in both reg.-season meetings vs. the slowish OSU defense. Johnny Dawkins’ emerging crew of freshmen, led by G Aaron bright, swingman Anthony Brown, and PF Dwight Powell, have been providing more than 50% of Stanford’s offense in Pac-10 play, at least boding well for the future on The Farm. Also note some possible internal issues in Corvallis, after Robinson benched five players for violating team rules prior to the regular-season ender art Arizona State when G Roberto Nelson at least stepped forward to score a career-best 34 points.

On the technical side, Beaver HC Robinson might consider asking for some Federal aid from his brother-in-law after OSU dropped SU decisions in 7 of its last 8 and 13 of its last 16 games, with the Beavs getting covers in just five of those. As for the Cardinal, it has been trending "over" lately (7 out of last 9).

Oregon vs. Arizona State...What happened to Oregon? Considered a Pac-10 Tourney darkhorse a few weeks ago, the Ducks lost their last four reg.-season games. Some Pac-10 sources believe OU simply hit a late-season wall, losing some energy as it wore itself out executing new HC Dana Altman’s demanding, pressure style. But the Ducks scrapped effectively in reg.-season-ending loss at Pac-10 top-seed Arizona. And we wonder if ASU can score a series hat-trick or if its inconsistent attack can nail another 16 triples as it did in last Thursday’s 73-53 win over UO at Tempe. It’s worth noting that HC Herb Sendek (recently rumored to be some hot water in Tempe) has benefited from the return to action of F Rihards Kuksiks (20 ppg last weekend vs. the Oregon schools) and G Ty Abbott relocating his shooting eye (22 ppg last week vs. the Ducks and Beavers).

Trend wise, since the Sun Devils broke their nine-game SU losing streak in mid February, they’ve actually won 3 of 5, and for all of the losing Sendek was doing in Pac-10 play, ASU is a decent 8-6-1 its last 15 on the board. Meanwhile, the Ducks suffered the humiliation of losing twice SU and vs. the line vs. ASU. Oregon also dropped its last 4 SU (1-3 vs. line) after a legit hot streak in which the Ducks went 6-2 SU and 7-1 vs. the line in an 8-game stretch from Jan. 22-Feb. 19.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-09-2011, 07:41 PM

SEC Tournament
March 9, 2011

The SEC Tournament returns to the Georgia Dome in Atlanta this year with a quartet of first-round games set for Thursday. The action will start at 1:00 p.m. Eastern when Auburn and Georgia collide for the second time this season.

Georgia (20-10 straight up, 12-14 against the spread) is the No. 4 seed in the East, thus facing the fifth seed from the SEC West. When these teams met at Stegeman Coliseum in Athens on Feb. 5, the Tigers gave the Bulldogs fits before UGA captured an 81-72 win in overtime.

As it has been prone to do in recent weeks, Auburn (11-19 SU, 13-8-2 ATS) took the cash as a 16-point underdog. Earnest Ross kept Auburn in the game with a career-high 30 points to go with seven rebounds and three steals.

UGA senior center Jeremy Price had 22 points, 14 rebounds and four blocked shots, while Travis Leslie finished with 20 points and eight boards.

Mark Fox’s team is on the proverbial bubble and certainly can’t afford a loss in this spot. The Dawgs might even need a pair of wins to avoid anxiety galore on Selection Sunday. They are looking for their first NCAA Tournament bid since 2008.

Georgia is looking to bounce back from Saturday’s 65-57 loss at Alabama as a 4 ½-point underdog. The Dawgs’ best player, junior power forward Trey Thompkins, had 15 points and 10 rebounds even though he was limited to just 27 minutes of playing time.

Thompkins had a toenail removed last Tuesday and his minutes were limited to just 22 in last Wednesday’s 77-55 home win over LSU. He could miss some practice time this week.

Tony Barbee’s team got off to a horrific start, losing home games to low-major schools like Samford, Presbyterian, Jacksonville, Campbell and UNC-Asheville. AU needed overtime to beat Ga. Southern at its brand-new Auburn Arena.

But the Tigers have been spread-covering juggernauts since Jan. 3 when they beat FSU 65-60 as 13-point home underdogs. Since then, they have covered the number at a 12-4 ATS clip in 16 games as underdogs.

Auburn finished the regular season with back-to-back wins and four straight covers, including a 60-51 win at LSU as a 4 ½-point ‘dog in Saturday’s finale. Kenny Gabriel and Ross both had double-doubles with 16 points apiece.

Most betting shops have installed UGA as an 11 ½-point favorite. If the Dawgs advance, they will face Alabama in what could essentially be a play-in game for an at-large invite to the NCAA Tournament.

In the second game of Thursday’s afternoon session at around 3:30 p.m. Eastern, the No. 3 seed in the West, Ole Miss, will take on the sixth seed from the East, South Carolina. Most books are listing the Rebels as four-point ‘chalk.’

Ole Miss (19-12 SU, 14-13 ATS) is coming off last Saturday’s 84-74 home win over Arkansas as a seven-point home favorite at The Tad Pad. Chris Warren celebrated his Senior Night by scoring 24 points and dishing out nine assists.

South Carolina (14-15 SU, 12-13 ATS) has lost eight of its last nine games with the lone win coming against Ole Miss in Columbia. The Gamecocks dropped the Rebels by a 79-73 count as two-point home ‘dogs. Sam Muldrow had 23 points and 10 rebounds for the winners, while Warren had a game-high 33 points in the losing effort.

Andy Kennedy’s team has been a single digit-favorite 14 times this season, going 8-6 ATS. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks are 8-8 ATS in 16 games as underdogs.

Tennessee (18-13 SU, 13-17 ATS) limped down the stretch to settle for the East’s No. 5 slot, resulting in a Thursday night showdown against Arkansas, the fourth seed from the West. Most spots have made the Volunteers 5 ½-point favorites.

Bruce Pearl’s squad has lost six of its last nine games, compiling a 2-7 spread record. The Vols lost a 64-58 decision to Kentucky as 1 ½-point underdogs Sunday in Knoxville. Tobias Harris scored a team-high 18 points in defeat.

UT senior center Brian Williams missed the loss to UK with a back injury. As of early Wednesday, he was listed as ‘questionable’ vs. the Razorbacks. Williams is one of the nation’s best interior bangers who averages 7.0 points and 7.6 rebounds per game.

Arkansas (18-12 SU, 8-15 ATS) has lost back-to-back games and is mired in a 2-6 ATS slide. The Hogs got a game-high 26 points from Rotnei Clarke in their aforementioned loss at Ole Miss this past weekend.

UA and UT met in Fayetteville way back on Jan. 8 with the Razorbacks prevailing 68-65 as one-point underdogs. Delvon Johnson scored 17 points for the winners, while Clarke and Marshawn Powell added 16 and 15, respectively. Harris had 21 points and 11 boards for the Vols.

Tennessee has been a single-digit ‘chalk’ in 11 games with a 4-7 spread record, while Arkansas has a 5-7 ATS mark in 12 underdog situations.

This game will come off the board at 7:30 p.m. Eastern. The winner will advance to face top-seeded Florida on Friday night.

Vanderbilt (21-9 SU, 15-10-1 ATS) has been made a 13 ½-point favorite for Thursday’s late-night game against LSU. The Commodores saw a five-game winning streak snapped at home against UT on Feb. 22 and they ended up losing three of their last four contests.

Florida went into Music City and dominated Vandy this past Saturday, 86-76. When Kevin Stallings’ team faced LSU in the regular season, it won 90-69 at LSU as an 8 ½-point road favorite. The 159 points flew ‘over’ the 133 ½-point total.

LSU led 43-41 at halftime thanks to a huge first half from Storm Warren, who hit 9-of-11 shots for 18 points by intermission. Warren, who finished with 24 points, couldn’t prevent Vandy from pulling away in the second half.

Jeffery Taylor had a team-high 20 points for the ‘Dores, who also got 17 points out of John Jenkins. Lance Goulbourne finished with 16 points and 17 rebounds.

LSU (11-20 SU, 11-14-1 ATS) is just 2-4 ATS in six games as a double-digit underdog this year.

All of the games will be televised on The SEC Network.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Florida is the No. 1 overall seed and the SEC’s regular-season champion, but Kentucky is the plus-125 favorite to win the SEC Tournament at Sportsbook.com (risk $100 to win $125 on UK). The Gators are plus-250 to cut the nets down in Atlanta (risk $100 to win $250). These teams have the following odds: Vandy (+450), Tennessee (+800), Alabama (+1200) and Mississippi State (+2000). The 'field bet' is available to bettors for a plus-400 payout.

--My pick to win this event is Florida, which I also believe has an excellent shot at making the Final Four.

--My sleeper team is Mississippi St., which won the tournament two years ago and nearly beat Kentucky in last year’s finals before losing in overtime. The Bulldogs have showed signs of life in recent weeks, winning three in a row including road scalps at Tennessee and at Arkansas. They also beat Ole Miss by double digits at The Hump and knocked off UF in Starkville earlier this year. The Bulldogs will take the court Friday night to play the Vandy-LSU winner.

--Kentucky gets the Ole Miss-South Carolina winner on Friday afternoon.

--My All-SEC Squad (12 players)

Point Guard: Chris Warren (Ole Miss)
Shooting Guard: John Jenkins (Vandy)
Small Forward: Chandler Parsons (Florida)
Power Forward: Trey Thompkins (Georgia)
Center: JaMychal Green (Alabama)
Sixth Man: Terrence Jones (Kentucky)
Backup PG: Brandon Knight (Kentucky)
Backup Big: Tobias Harris (Tennessee)
Backup Forward: Jeffery Taylor (Vandy)
Backup Guard: Kenny Boynton (Florida)
Backup Big: Vernon Macklin (Florida)
Zone-Busting 3-point Specialist: Rotnei Clarke (Arkansas)

--SEC Player of the Year: Chandler Parsons (Florida)

**StarDust Bum** · 03-09-2011, 11:51 PM

MLB

Thursday, March 10

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Boston - 1:05 PM ET Boston +103 500
Tampa Bay -

NY Yankees - 1:05 PM ET Philadelphia -129 500
Philadelphia -

St. Louis - 1:05 PM ET St. Louis +112 500
Atlanta -

Toronto - 1:05 PM ET Toronto +112 500
Minnesota -

Cleveland - 3:05 PM ET Chi. Cubs -124 500
Chi. Cubs -

Colorado - 3:05 PM ET Colorado +112 500
Milwaukee -

San Diego - 3:05 PM ET San Diego +117 500
LA Dodgers -

San Francisco - 3:05 PM ET San Francisco +102 500
Cincinnati -

Baltimore - 7:05 PM ET Baltimore -103 500
Pittsburgh -

------------------------------------------------------------

Early NCAAB Games:

Thursday, March 10

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Miami - Florida - 12:00 PM ET Virginia +3 500
Virginia - Over 121.5 500

Bowling Green - 12:00 PM ET Bowling Green +5 500
Western Michigan - Over 136.5 500

Auburn - 1:00 PM ET Georgia -11.5 500
Georgia - Under 125.5 500

Wake Forest - 2:25 PM ET Boston College -13 500
Boston College - Over 143.5 500

Akron - 2:25 PM ET Miami (OH) +3.5 500
Miami (OH) - Under 132 500

Minnesota - 2:30 PM ET Minnesota +1.5 500
Northwestern - Under 132.5 500

UC Irvine - 3:00 PM ET Long Beach St. -10 500
Long Beach St. - Over 148.5 500

California - 3:00 PM ET California +3 500
Southern California - Over 133 500

South Carolina - 3:30 PM ET South Carolina +4 500
Mississippi - Over 139 500

Iowa - 4:55 PM ET Michigan St -7.5 500
Michigan St - Under 130 500

New Mexico - 5:30 PM ET New Mexico -3 500
Colorado St. - Under 135.5 500

UC Santa Barbara - 5:30 PM ET UC Santa Barbara +1.5 500
Pacific - Under 121 500

**StarDust Bum** · 03-10-2011, 06:13 PM

Pittsburgh-UConn meet in Big East quarterfinals

CONNECTICUT HUSKIES (23-9, #9 seed in Big East)

vs. PITTSBURGH PANTHERS (27-4, #1 seed in Big East)

Big East Tournament – Quarterfinals
Tip-off: Thursday, 12:00 p.m. EDT – New York, NY
Line: Pittsburgh -5.5, Total: 131

No. 3 Pittsburgh looks to extend its winning streak against No. 21 Connecticut to five games when the two teams meet in the Big East Tournament Quarterfinals on Thursday at Madison Square Garden.

The Panthers have won four straight over the Huskies by an average of 10.8 PPG, including a 78-63 home victory in the Big East opener on Dec. 27. Ashton Gibbs (16.4 PPG, 46.6% three-pointers) led four Panthers in double-figures with 21 points in that game, while Brad Wanamaker (11.9 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 5.2 APG) added 14 points. Pittsburgh shot 52.1% from the field (25-of-48) and led by as many as 17 points. For the third straight season, the Panthers earned a double-bye in the Big East tournament. But that hasn't been a good thing because in the previous two seasons, they lost the first tournament game they played in. Pittsburgh posted two straight double-digit victories to finish the regular season, which included a 60-50 win over Villanova on March 5. The Panthers rank third in the nation in assists (17.5 APG), sixth in rebounding (40.3 RPG), 27th in field-goal percentage (47.2%) and 51st in points (74.1 PPG), but they've scored 67 points or less in six of their final seven regular-season contests, and have gone 11 straight games scoring 71 or less.

Kemba Walker (23.2 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 4.3 APG, 35.2% three-pointers) has scored 16.0 PPG in four career matchups with Pitt, but is winless (0-4) in those contests. Walker had 28 points on 10-of-18 shooting in the Huskies' second straight Big East tourney victory, a 79-62 blowout of Georgetown on Wednesday. He had 31 points in the first meeting with the Panthers, but was just 10-of-27 from the field. Walker was the only UConn player with more than nine points in that game, as the Huskies shot 31.7% from the field (19-of-60) as a team. Connecticut lost four of its final five contests to end the regular season, but it has rebounded nicely by winning two games in the Big East tournament for the first time since 2004, the last time it won the postseason title. After scoring 63.0 PPG on 41% FG in the final five regular-season games, the Huskies have averaged 88.0 PPG on 55% FG in the first two games of the conference tournament.

Pittsburgh and Connecticut met in three straight Big East tournament title games from 2002-04, and the Huskies won two of those three matchups. But the Panthers own a 26-12 record (.684) at Madison Square Garden since the 2001-02 season. This season, they are 14-12 ATS and 11-7 ATS in conference play, while UConn is 15-11 ATS overall, but only 9-11 ATS against Big East foes. Although the Huskies’ offense has been clicking in the two Big East tournament games, they will now be facing an excellent defense. UConn is 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS against the Top 6 seeds in the Big East this season, and expect these trends to continue Thursday against the Panthers. This highly-rated FoxSheets trend also likes Pittsburgh to win and cover the spread.

Play On - A favorite (PITTSBURGH) - a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against a good defensive team (63-67 PPG), after allowing 55 points or less. (99-47 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.8%, +47.3 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-10-2011, 06:14 PM

Injuries abound in Nuggets-Suns game

DENVER NUGGETS (37-27)

at PHOENIX SUNS (33-29)

Tip-off: Thursday, 10:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Phoenix -3.5, Total: 215.5

These teams may be limping into the stretch run, but they’re still winning games while they do.

Both Denver and Phoenix have injuries piling up as they get set for their Thursday night matchup. The Suns will continue to be without stretch big man Channing Frye (shoulder), and point guard Steve Nash simply hasn’t been the same while dealing with a pelvis injury. He’s still facilitating, getting 12.1 APG since the All-Star break, but he’s scoring just 9.5 PPG while shooting an uncharacteristic 36.4% from the field and 15.0% from three over those eight games since the break. Still, the Suns have gone 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS during that span, thanks to some big performances from just about everyone else on the roster. Hakim Warrick (32 points, eight rebounds) and Vince Carter (32 points on 13-of-17 shooting from the field, 5-of-7 from three) keyed Tuesday night’s win over Houston, while Marcin Gortat continues to deliver off the bench (15.4 PPG, 10.3 RPG since the break).

On the other side, Denver’s post-Carmelo Anthony trade momentum is slowing just a bit, mostly due to injuries. After winning five of six SU (and going 6-0 ATS) after trading their superstar, the Nuggets were upended on the road by the Clippers Saturday night. They’re still without forward Danilo Gallinari (toe), one of the key pieces that came back in the blockbuster trade, and guard Arron Afflalo, their best perimeter defender, is doubtful because of a hamstring injury. If he is able to go, he’ll be at less than 100 percent, even after the four-day layoff.

When Phoenix visited Denver in late November, the Nuggets hung 138 points on them. When the teams met again in Denver in January, the Nuggets scored 132 in a 34-point blowout. But this is obviously a much different team. The Nuggets have slowed their pace a bit since the Anthony trade, and after averaging 107.6 PPG with Anthony, they’re only averaging 104.6 PPG without him. They’ve yet to find a new No. 1 scoring option, but are getting double-digit point contributions from seven different players (eight if you count Gallinari’s two games in a Denver uniform). They’ve made a huge improvement on the defensive end. After allowing opponents to score 105.2 PPG on 46.4% shooting from the field with Anthony, they’re allowing just 94.3 PPG on 44.5% shooting since the All-Star Break.

The Suns will be a major test for Denver’s newfound commitment on the defensive end, and I think Phoenix scores enough to grab a comfortable home win. The FoxSheets show some trends that point towards a Suns cover, including:

Play Against - Road teams (DENVER) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days. (39-12 over the last 5 seasons, 76.5%, +25.8 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-10-2011, 06:15 PM

Dallas favored by 6 points over New York

NEW YORK KNICKS (34-29)

at DALLAS MAVERICKS (46-18)

Tip-off: Thursday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Dallas -6, Total: 216

The Knicks travel to Dallas to battle the Mavericks on Thursday. This is the second meeting between these teams this season, as Dallas defeated the Knicks at MSG in February.

The Knicks have come alive since acquiring Carmelo Anthony at the trading deadline. New York is 6-3 since the trade, 5-1 against teams .500 or better, with two of the losses coming against the Cavaliers. The Knicks currently own the best record ATS both overall and on the road this season. They are 39-22 overall ATS and have won three straight and six of their past seven ATS. They are 23-8 ATS on the road, and have won six of their past seven road games ATS. Carmelo Anthony scored 31 points and hit the game-winning FG with five-tenths of a seconds remaining on Wednesday to help the Knicks defeat the Grizzlies. The Knicks were without Chauncey Billups for a fifth straight game on Wednesday and his status for Thursday is unknown. Amar’e Stoudemire added 26 on Wednesday, marking the fifth time that Anthony and Stoudemire each scored at least 25 points in the nine games since they have been together. Anthony torched the Mavericks for 42 points as a Nugget on February 10 in a game Denver won by one point.

Dallas has lost two of three since winning 18 of its previous 19 games. The Mavs sit second in the Western Conference, a half-game ahead of the Lakers. They are 34-28 ATS this season, and have lost four straight games ATS overall. Dirk Nowitzki is averaging 26.0 PPG over his past six games, while shooting 59.6% from the field. Shawn Marion left Wednesday’s loss against New Orleans after hurting his ribs on a flagrant foul by the Hornets' Marco Belinelli. X-rays were negative on Marion, who expects to play Thursday. Dallas also played without Peja Stojakovic (back spasms) but got Tyson Chandler back from a sprained right ankle. The status of Stojakovic is unknown for Thursday. Nowitzki is averaging 26.0 PPG over his past 18 meetings against the Knicks, and scored 29 points with 11 rebounds in the Mavs win over New York earlier this season.

Dallas has won 16 of the past 18 meetings, including 9-of-10 at Dallas. However, the Knicks have discovered themselves with the acquisition of Anthony. Their offense, which was already potent before the trade, is shooting 53.1 percent from the field in their past five games, and 46.9 percent from behind the arc over that span. I like the Knicks offensive flow right now, and since they are getting seven points, this makes this an easy pick. I’m taking New York, which is 20-5 ATS (80%) as a road underdog this season.

The FoxSheets give two highly-rated reasons to pick the Knicks:

NEW YORK is 15-2 ATS (88.2%, +12.8 Units) when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season. The average score was NEW YORK 112.8, OPPONENT 107.4 - (Rating = 4*).

NEW YORK is 24-8 ATS (75.0%, +15.2 Units) vs. good free-throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts this season. The average score was NEW YORK 105.4, OPPONENT 102.0 - (Rating = 3*).

Four of the past five meetings between these teams have finished Over the total, and this four-star FoxSheets trend also supports the Over for Thursday’s meeting.

DALLAS is 11-0 OVER (+11.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season. The average score was DALLAS 111.6, OPPONENT 104.8 - (Rating = 4*).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-10-2011, 06:17 PM

Struggling Heat host sizzling Lakers Thursday

LOS ANGELES LAKERS (46-19)

at MIAMI HEAT (43-21)

Tip-off: Thursday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Lakers -2.5, Total: 188

Two teams heading in opposite directions meet in a possible NBA Finals preview, as the Lakers travel to Miami to take on LeBron James and the Heat. The Lakers will be looking for revenge, as the Heat easily defeated them in Los Angeles on Christmas day, winning by 16 points.

Not much has gone right for the Heat recently, as they have lost five straight overall, four straight at home, and are under intense criticism from everywhere. Miami has struggled all season ATS, as its 28-34 record can attest to, but the Heat have really done poorly ATS at home. Their mark of 10-20 ATS at home is tied for the worst in the NBA with Atlanta. They have lost their past seven games ATS overall. Miami’s latest meltdown was against the Blazers at home on Tuesday, losing 105-96, and allowing Portland to shoot 50.6 percent from the field. LeBron James scored 31 points on 14-of-20 shooting against the Blazers, and is averaging 28.0 PPG in his past eight games while connecting on 57.6 percent of his attempts, but the Heat are just 2-6 in those games. James is averaging 30.0 PPG in his past three games against L.A. (all wins, two with Cleveland and one with Miami). After averaging just 19.8 PPG on 44.3 percent shooting in Miami’s previous four games, Dwyane Wade scored 38 against the Blazers. Wade scored 18 points on 6-of-17 from the field in Miami’s win at L.A. earlier this season.

It’s that time of season again for the Lakers, who are gearing up for the playoffs and looking like the defending champs. After losing their final three games before the All-Star break, L.A. has come out on fire. The Lakers have won eight straight since the break as they head into Miami. They have struggled ATS this season, posting a 32-33 record, but they have won seven of their past eight and 12 of their past 16 ATS overall. They have also done very well ATS on the road, going 20-15, with five straight ATS victories. Kobe Bryant has led the Lakers in scoring in seven of their eight games on this winning streak, and is averaging 25.1 PPG over that stretch. Bryant scored just 17 points on 6-of-16 shooting in the Lakers Christmas loss to Miami, but averaged 36.0 PPG against the Heat in two games last season. Pau Gasol has recorded six double-doubles during their winning streak and is averaging 17.4 PPG and 10.4 RPG over that span. After scoring in single digits in his previous four games, Andrew Bynum is averaging 12.5 PPG and 13.0 RPG in his past six games. He has made an incredible 67.4% FG (29-for-43) over this span with 16+ rebounds in each of his past three games. The Lakers have really kicked up their defensive intensity of late, as they have held their past four opponents to 83.3 PPG on 38.8% FG and 27.5 percent from behind the arc.

The Heat are just 5-13 this season in games decided by five points or less, and their only win in 10 games against teams with a winning percentage over .700 came against L.A. on Christmas. The Heat are feeling their nickname and need to learn how to deal with the pressure that will only get worse if they don’t start winning ballgames. Despite recent events, I like Miami to get it together Thursday and come out fighting against the defending champs. This is the first time this season the Heat are an underdog at home, and I’m taking them plus the points. The FoxSheets provide another highly-rated reason to pick Miami:

Play On - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MIAMI) - off an upset loss as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record. (72-34 since 1996.) (67.9%, +34.6 units. Rating = 3*).

The FoxSheets also show a four-star trend supporting the Under.

LA LAKERS are 15-2 UNDER (88.2%, +12.8 Units) versus poor passing teams, averaging <=20 assists/game this season. The average score was LA LAKERS 99.5, OPPONENT 94.7 - (Rating = 4*).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-10-2011, 06:20 PM

West Coast Update
March 10, 2011

With Wednesday in the books, conference tourney action really heats up in the West on Thursday as the Big West kicks off proceedings at the Anaheim Honda Center, home of the NHL Ducks. Action has already commenced in the WAC, Mountain West, and Pac-10 affairs.
Following is a brief overview of the Big West party in Anaheim, plus updates and previews from the other leagues...

BIG WEST CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT

All teams compete. First round March 10 with #1 vs. #8, #4 vs. #5, #2 vs. #7, and #3 vs. #6. Quarterfinals March 11. Semifinals March 12 with #1 vs. lowest remaining seed and #2 vs. highest remaining seed. Final March 12. All games played at the Honda Center, Anaheim, California. LY's WINNER: UC Santa Barbara -1 beat Long Beach State 69-64.

TEAM TO BEAT: Long Beach State...Few might realize that the Big West (then known as the PCAA) was the first league since the old Southern Conference to join ACC with the conference tournament idea in 1976, when Pacific hosted the event in the old Stockton Civic Auditorium (capacity 2,901). The move of this year’s tourney to the Anaheim Honda Center recalls to the days when the loop conducted this event at the Inglewood Forum, home of the L.A. Lakers and Kings, in the league’s glory days during the early and mid ‘80s. The problem is that the league has downsized considerably in stature since those days when UNLV and Fresno State (then in their own glory days) used to bring thousands of red-clad fans to pack the Forum. After spending the last decade at the cozy, 7200-seat Anaheim Convention Center, the league has decided to try the big venue in 2011, although many worry that the big arena will be an echo chamber for this event. The league switched its recent format (5 vs. 8 and 6 vs. 7 the first day, 3 and 4 seeds involved in Day 2, and the top 2 seeds getting byes to the semifinals) to the old, traditional 1 vs. 8, 2 vs. 7 (and so on) format ostensibly because it did not want to risk an extra day in the Honda Center with the chance of so few fans showing up. Packing the men’s brackets into three days rather than four made more economical sense, so that’s why the format has been altered.

The clear team to beat is Long Beach, which ran away with the regular-season crown. All five starters score in double-digits, led by jet-quick 5'10 G Casper Ware (16.9 ppg), complemented in the backcourt by 6'5 matchup nightmare Larry Anderson (14.2 ppg), a local product from LB Jordan High, and G Greg Plater, who hit a Big West-best 85 triples. The 49ers have found a bit more success by running only when the opportunities present themselves this season, focusing more on pressure defense across the court to create tempo for HC Dan Monsen, the former Gonzaga and Minnesota coach who is rumored to be on the radar screens of potential openings (perhaps Utah or Arizona State?) in the region. The Beach, despite owning a 9-game win streak, does not enter Anaheim with an NCAA bid in hand; it will have to win this event to make sure of its Big Dance invitation.

TOP CONTENDER: UC Santa Barbara...Although there might be other more-likely candidates for this role, many Big West observers still fear the Gauchos, with much of the same lineup that won this event a year ago and made Ohio State sweat for a while in the first round of the NCAA Tourney. UCSB was a curious underachiever this season, bu veteran HC Bob Williams thinks he might have tweaked the defense enough in recent weeks to forge a turnaround, as the Gauchos blocked a school-record 14 shots in their season-ending win over rival Cal Poly by an unlikely 49-43 score. The Gauchos are going to need their 1-2 punch of G Orlando Johnson (Big West-best 20.3 ppg) and F James Nunnally (16.6 ppg) to be on song, but they’ll have a puncher’s chance in Anaheim. And if UCSB can ever get the lead, it might be hard to catch in the late going with the Big West’s best FT shooting (76%).

DARKHORSE: Cal State Fullerton...The Titans are one of only two Big West entries (UC Irvine the other) to have beaten Long Beach this season. And while the 11-19 campaign was mostly a disappointment for HC Bob Burton, CSF enters this event hot after sweeping Pacific and UC Davis on the road last week with a barrage of 3-point shots (54% from beyond the arc in those two games in the Central Valley last week). The hottest Big West shooter at the moment is Titan G Devin Peltier, scoring 25 ppg his last four outings.

Thursday's quarterfinal matchups:

Long Beach St. vs. UC Irvine...Tourney favorite Long Beach doesn’t have the luxury of approaching this event with an NCAA at-large invitation sewn up; the 49ers either win in Anaheim or head to the NIT. And local rival UCI has provided some real resistance the past two seasons when splitting four SU meetings vs. 49ers and covering all of those games in the process. The Anteaters are capable of causing The Beach some more discomfort now that jr. PF deluxe Eric Wise (has scored 20 or more in last six outings) has returned to action from lingering hamstring woes.

Trend-wise, The Beach has not only been winning games outright lately (9 in a row), it has covered six of its last eight. The 49ers are also "under" in 5 of their last 6. But note the recent UCI point-spread success (four covers in a row) vs. The Beach.

UC Santa Barbara vs. Pacific...Frankly, neither of these teams gets our pulses to quicken these days. The Tigers and vet HC Bob Thomason are never sure what they are going to get most nights from starters such as G Demetrece Young & C Nyika Williams (both held scoreless in recent outings), although 6'9 C Sam Willard (25.0 ppg & 10.6 rpg) usually brings his lunch pail to work. Meanwhile, UCSB never seemed to find a reliable third scoring option beyond G Orlando Johnson (20.3 ppg) & F James Nunnally (16.6 ppg). Speaking of Johnson, expect him to bounce back from his first non-DD scoring effort of season last Saturday (only 6 points) vs. Cal Poly.

Trend-wise, not a lot to recommend lately, with UOP dropping its last 5 and 7 of its last 8 vs. the number, and UCSB (2-10-1 vs. line last 13) on its own extended point-spread downturn. Are the Tigers up to recording the hat-trick over the Gauchos this season?

Cal Poly SLO vs. UC Riverside...UCR covering some games lately (4 in a row) and displayed admirable spunk down stretch when rallying to secure conference tourney slot. The Highlanders have been getting prime performances out of different sources (G Phil Martin and F Kevin Bradshaw both over 20 points in recent UCR wins) in recent uptick. Cal Poly mostly succeeding lately vs. number (8-1-1 last 10), too, and combo of F David Hanson & G Shawn Lewis (15.1 ppg) should get Mustangs into semifinals. Can UCR keep this one interesting in a likely slower-paced affair?

Trend-wise, we might be compelled to shade the "under" with both trending that way lately (Mustangs "under" 7 of last 9, Highlanders "under" 6 of last 8).

CS Fullerton vs. CS Northridge...Northridge had Fullerton’s number this season, winning and covering both vs. Titans. But CSF displayed some real signs of life in last weekend’s road sweep of UOP and UC Davis, hitting 54% of its triple attempts with on-fire G Devon Peltier (25 ppg last 4) nailing 11 of them himself. Can similar long-range marksmanship help the Titans avoid the hat-trick against Matadors?

Trend-wise, note the conflicting "totals" trends (Northridge "under" 7 in a row, Fullerton "over" its last five). The Matadors have also covered 8 of their last 12 outings, and note that the Titans had dropped five in a row SU and vs. the line prior to last week’s road sweep at UOP and Davis.

MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT

All teams compete. First round March 9 with #8 vs. #9. Quarterfinals March 10 with #1 seed vs. #8_#9 winner, #4 vs. #5, #2 vs. #7, and #3 vs. #6. Semifinals March 11. Final March 12. All games at Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, Nevada (home court of UNLV). LY's WINNER: San Diego State +4' beat UNLV 55-45.

WEDNESDAY REVIEW: The expected fireworks never materialized at the Thomas & Mack Center between TCU and Wyoming, with the Frogs controlling pace and tempo and flustering a Wyo side that wanted to play go-go ball and eventually winning, 70-61. Instead, TCU ends a 13-game losing streak that was the program’s longest since dropping 21 in a row way back in the 1976-77 campaign. The Frogs did manage to hit 14 of 29 triples vs. the Cowboys, their most in a MWC game since 2008 in the tourney vs. UNLV. The reward for TCU is a date vs. top seed BYU in the early Thursday matinee. Meanwhile, a new name has surfaced in the Wyoming coaching search, that of recently-deposed Texas Tech coach Pat Knight, although there is concern in Laramie that star soph G Desmar Jackson is ready to transfer. Stay tuned.

Thursday’s quarterfinal matchups:

TCU vs. BYU...Maybe it was only a booby prize that TCU won vs. Wyoming, given that tourney top seed BYU now awaits. But all eyes are going to be on the Cougars to see how they continue to deal with the absence of suspended frontliner Brandon Davies, now in dry-dock for the third straight game. Interestingly, the Frogs held Jimmer Fredette below his season scoring average of 27.9 in both meetings (Jimmer only 21 & 23, respectively, in those two games), and TCU sr. G Greg Hill appears to be closing his Fort Worth career with a bang, scoring 23 and 18 points in each of the last two games, both bettering his previous season high of 15 points. BYU, which will have strong support in Vegas, is looking to solidify a protected seed for the upcoming Big Dance.

Trend-wise, the Frogs have shown a little jump in the past two weeks, covering 3 of their last 4 games after dropping 7 of their previous 8 and 11 of their prior 14 vs. the number as the team dealt with myriad distractions, including the suspension of top scorer G Ronnie Moss. The Cougs have been going back-and-forth (even when Davies was still on the squad), splitting their last 12 vs. the number.

New Mexico vs. Colorado State...This matchup suddenly takes on some real significance, with a depleted BYU (minus suspended key frontliner Brandon Davies) likely on deck, an assignment New Mexico would surely welcome after beating the Cougs twice this season. But first, Lobos must get past CSU, and a key will be which Philip McDonald shows up for UNM; he scored 27 in Lobos’ Jan. 12 win over Rams at The Pit, then was held to six in 68-62 loss at Moby on Feb. 12. CSU Gs have been struggling in recent weeks, however, and good news for UNM with explosive 6-7 frosh swingman Tony Snell expected to be ready to go after sitting out the Air Force finale with sore ankle.

Trend-wise, CSU lost some traction down the stretch when dropping 4 of its last 5 SU, just when the Rams were being penciled in as a likely at-large invitee to the Big Dance. Both teams trending "under" lately (Rams 7 of last 10, Lobos 5 of last 7).

Utah vs. San Diego State...Rumors are making the rounds in the Mountain West that are not promising for Utah HC Jim Boylen, whom many believe might be forced to walk the plank if the Utes can’t make a miracle run through this event. Which looks extremely unlikely after Utah hardly circled the wagons in its home finale last Saturday vs. UNLV, falling behind by 25 at half in eventual lopsided defeat. Greater challenges lie ahead for SDSU, but Aztecs not likely to take things to easy on Utes, either, considering Utah’s upcoming departure from conference. Note SDSU led by 27 at half in most-recent meeting Feb. 8 at Viejas Arena. Utes’ MWC bon voyage not likely to be very memorable.

Trend-wise, Utah, which has been prone to streaks all season, is now heading in the wrong direction once more, dropping 2 in a row SU and 3 straight vs. the line. The Utes had earlier posted 7 and 5-game SU losing streaks this season. Utah is also "under" its last three outings. As for the Aztecs, they’ve been picking up the pace after some indifferent point-spread form at midseason, and enter Las Vegas having covered five of their last seven.

Air Force vs. UNLV...Memories of UNLV’s torturous 49-42 home win over Air Force on Feb. 15 might be enough to keep Rebels fans away from the Thomas & Mack until tomorrow night’s semifinal round. Lon Kruger’s bunch was in the throes of a debilitating shooting slump at that time (UNLV only 2 of 14 from 3-point land that night), although Rebs’ 3-point shooting improved markedly in the last four outings that have sealed UNLV’s at-large bid to the Big Dance regardless what happens in this event. The Falcons’ precision and tempo-controlling tactics have often been uncomfortable for UNLV.

Trend-wise, there are a couple of stark numbers which actually comprise a very solid case for underdog Air Force; the Falcons are 7-0-1 vs. the spread away from home in Mountain West play this season, while the Rebels have failed to cover seven straight at the Thomas & Mack.

WESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT

Top 8 teams compete. First round March 9 with #5 vs. #8 and #6 vs. #7. Quarterfinals March 10 with #4 vs. #5-#8 winner and #3 vs. #6-#7 winner. Semifinals March 11. Final March 12. All games at Orleans Hotel Arena, Las Vegas, NV. LY's WINNER: New Mexico State +9' beat Utah State 69-63.

WEDNESDAY REVIEW: We saw some good, some bad, and some ugly in person on Wednesday at the Orleans Arena. The good was obviously Nevada G Malik Story, who nailed all of his six three-point attempts in a 34-point explosion for the Wolf Pack, which cruised past Fresno State in the second game of the afternoon session, which prompted a new round of rumors about the future of Bulldog HC Steve Cleveland. The bad was Fresno’s performance for the first 25 minutes of the game when the Bulldogs dug themselves a 28-point hole before some ill-advised early substituting by Pack HC David Carter allowed Fresno to make a futile yet inspired run in the last 15 minutes that even the re-insertion of Nevada’s starting lineup couldn’t slow. Carter was likely trying to rest his troops that will have to win four games in as many days to get back to the postseason for the ninth straight campaign, but ended up having to use them more than he wanted in the last minutes of the game. Nevada still remains an intriguing X-factor in this event. And we’re still trying to figure out how Hawaii allowed itself to get beaten by San Jose State, 75-74, in a wild finish that wasn’t determined until well after the final horn, when the referees had to check with a replay to see if Warrior F Bill Amis’ last-second tip-in had beaten the buzzer; it didn’t. Hawaii hurt itself all afternoon by missing 12 free throws and several chances to extend the lead. The dogged Spartans capitalized on Hawaii foul trouble that limited how much Warrior HC Gib Arnold could utilize defensive ace Zane Johnson on SJSU high scorer Adrian Oliver, who had 29 points, including the game-winning jumper with 6 seconds to play in a wild 75-74 Spartans win.

Thursday’s quarterfinal matchups:

San Jose State vs. Idaho...Interestingly, these two split a pair of regular-season decisions; that’s not interesting in itself, but the fact that the road team won each indicates how closely matched these two seem to be. Almost all of San Jose’s firepower comes from its backcourt and the marvelous Oliver (24.3 ppg), who was somewhat muffled by Don Verlin’s Idaho defense in the regular-season meetings when he hit on only 16 of 44 from the floor (36%) and a mere 4 of 17 beyond the arc (24%). Both teams have a veteran look about them, especially the Vandals and sr. starters G Jeff Ledbetter, wing Shawn Henderson, and F Brandon Wiley.

Spread-wise, Idaho offered pretty good value all season, standing 5-2 vs. the line its last seven and 15–6-2 its last 23 on the board.

Nevada vs. New Mexico State...A quick rematch from NMSU’s 77-68 win last Saturday at Las Cruces, a scoreline that flatters the Aggies after Nevada held a 61-60 lead late in the game. The Wolf Pack dominated an earlier meeting, however, winning by 19 at Reno back on January 20. The "story" (no pun intended) for the Pack is 6'5 soph G Malik Story, who followed up three wretched performance to close the regular season when he missed 29 of 37 shots, by hitting all 6 of his triples and 11 of 14 from the floor overall in a season-best 34-point effort on Wednesday vs. Fresno in the Pack’s 90-80 first-round win. Note that the Aggies had lost four in a row prior to the win last week over Nevada, as they continue to be hampered by injuries (C Hamadu Rahman doubtful with calf problems). Don’t forget that NMSU knocked favored Nevada out of the WAC Tourney a year ago in Reno.

Trend-wise, note that the Aggies have covered just 1 of their last 6 games away from Las Cruces.

PACIFIC 10 CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT

All teams compete. Opening round March 9 with #8 vs. #9 and #7 vs. #10. Quarterfinals March 10 with #1 vs. #8_#9 winner, #2 vs. #7-#10 winner, #3 vs. #6, and #4 vs. #5. Semifinals March 11. Final March 12. All games at Staples Center, Los Angeles. LY's WINNER: Washington +2 beat California 79-75.

WEDNESDAY REVIEW: Good if you were from the state of Oregon, as both the Beavers and Ducks advanced. Of the two wins, we’re not going to read much into Oregon State’s 69-67 win over Stanford, as the Beavers are likely due a quick exit on Thursday vs. tourney top seed Arizona, save some federal aid from the White House for OSU HC Craig Robinson. More intriguing was Oregon playing 32 or so minutes of exceptional basketball vs. Arizona State, the type we saw from the Ducks for a stretch in early February when many Pac-10 observers believed Dana Altman’s team could be a darkhorse in this event. Oregon’s 76-69 win over the Sun Devils was easier than the scoreline suggests, with the Ducks up by as much as 20 in the second half before getting a bit sloppy in the last few minutes. By the way, is Sun Devil HC Herb Sendek really in some trouble in Tempe?

Thursday’s quarterfinal matchups:

California vs. Southern Cal...Many Bracketologists have SC (with numerous marquee wins) clinging to the periphery of the Big Dance bubble despite 13 regular-season defeats. But the Trojans have been an unreliable proposition due to recurring blackouts on the offensive end, where 6-10 F Nicola Vucevic (17.7 ppg) has been the only truly consistent scoring element. Kevin O’Neill’s myriad defensive tricks will not confound a Mike Montgomery-coached team, and "Monty’s" Cal side has run off four impressive wins and covers since a bitter home loss to SC at Berkeley back on Feb. 17. Golden Bears’ L.A.-area frosh product G Allen Crabbe (23 ppg last 3; 11 of 18 triples in those games!) has emerged as a legit go-to threat, and Monty will find ways to get him some looks after Crabbe made only 3 of 11 from floor (in return game from a concussion, it must be noted) in last meeting.

Trend-wise, both are on an uptick, with SC winning and covering 5 of its last 6 and Cal winning and covering its last four. Conflicting "totals" trends, however, with the Trojans "under" 7 of their last 9 and 15 of 22, while the Bears are "over" in 7 of their last 8.

Oregon State vs. Arizona...This is a quick rematch from Arizona’s 80-66 win over the Beavers last Saturday at Tucson when OSU HC Craig Robinson benched five players. But all were available for Robinson in Wednesday’s somewhat surprising win over Stanford, the Beavers’ first win over a Pac-10 foe away from Corvallis this season. Soph G Jared Cunningham scored a career-high 24 for OSU on Wednesday vs. the Tree. These teams split two regular-season meetings, although both were covered by the Beavers, who had also surprisingly beaten the Cats in three straight before last week’s loss at Tucson. Note that OSU managed to hold UA star F Derrick Williams below his 18.8 ppg scoring in both meetings this season. Pac-10 sources are at a loss why these matchups (which don’t look good on paper for OSU) have allowed the Beavers to stay competitive in this series.

Trend-wise, as noted above, the Beavers have covered all four meetings vs. Arizona since last season, winning three of those outright as a substantial dog.

Oregon vs. UCLA...Was that the real Oregon we saw on Wednesday night vs. ASU, or were the Ducks that lost four straight coming into this event at Staples Center, the side we’ll see tonight? Note that Oregon had staked itself to an early lead in the most-recent meeting vs. UCLA last month, although the Ducks went cold down the stretch in an eventual 10-point loss at Pauley Pavilion. A potential concern for Bruin HC Ben Howland is the possible absence of PG Malcolm Lee, who hurt a knee last weekend at Washington State and would figure to be an important component for the Bruins to deal with Dana Altman’s noted pressuring, three-quarter court defense.

Trend-wise, UCLA has been extremely consistent for the past two months, winning 13 of its last 16 outright, covering 4 straight and 8 of its last 10, plus a pair of wins and covers vs. the Ducks. The Bruins are also "under" their last 4 and 8 of their last 10 games.

Washington State vs. Washington...Must acknowledge the status of Wazzu’s high-scoring 2-G Klay Thompson (21.4 ppg), suspended after last week’s win over SC due to marijuana possession, although he is expected to be reinstated for this matchup vs. state rival U-Dub. Also, PG Reggie Moore, who missed last Saturday’s OT loss vs. UCLA with a sprained ankle, is now listed as probable for this clash. The Huskies would rather not fall into some bubble trouble with the NCAA Selection Committee by losing for a third time this season vs. desperate Cougs (who probably need a very deep run in L.A. to get back on NCAA radar). It won’t come easily, however, as Lorenzo Romar’s Husky transition game didn’t detonate in either reg.-season meeting vs. WSU, which held UW to 37% & 34% from floor, respectively, in a pair of Cougar upset wins. Wazzu was able to mix things up when shorthanded vs. the Bruins, as HC Ken Bone, minus his top two Gs, employed a high-post offense featuring frequent back-cuts to the basket, with the defense employing a George Mason-like "scramble" with frequent double teams. Wazzu’s flickering NCAA hopes will be extinguished with a loss.

Trend-wise, note the pair of wins and covers by the Cougs, as an underdog both times, vs. the cross-state Huskies this season. Although neither has been offering much value lately (WSU 2-5 vs. line last 7, UW no covers last 3 or 8 of last 11).

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