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**StarDust Bum** · 03-08-2011, 07:36 PM

UConn-DePaul get Big East Tournament underway

DePAUL BLUE DEMONS (7-23, #16 seed in Big East)

at CONNECTICUT HUSKIES (21-9, #9 seed in Big East)

Big East Tournament – Opening Round
Tip-off: Tuesday, 12:00 p.m. EDT – New York, NY
Line: Connecticut -14.5, Total: 137

They say a tie is like kissing your sister. In the Big East conference the only thing worse than a tie is playing Game 1 on Day 1 of a five-day tournament that involves 16 teams. That is because if you are playing in Game #1 it means one team finished dead last in the conference (16th) while the other team finished at the top of the bottom half of the conference (9th place). Enter No. 21 Connecticut and DePaul to the start of the Big East Tournament.

The Huskies find themselves in ninth place after losing their final two regular season games last week to West Virginia and Notre Dame. A win over the Irish Saturday could have settled them into the 8th spot, but the Huskies blew a late, five-point, second-half lead, and were outscored 10-2 in the final 4:13. As for DePaul, they find themselves in 16th place because, well, they went 1-17 in league play, were 321st in Division I in rebounding (30.7 RPG), shot 43% from the field this season, and frankly were not very good. The Huskies easily defeated DePaul in Chicago 82-62 back in January. That would seem to indicate that the rematch shouldn’t be much of a match at all right? Maybe so, but when you’re playing the 16th-seeded team on day one (meaning that you finished ninth in the conference), and you haven’t won a Big East tournament game in six years, you really can’t be assured of anything.

While Connecticut may be 0 for the past 5 conference tournaments, the Blue Demons are 2 for the past 3 seasons, as in they have just two regular season Big East victories in the past three years. DePaul (7-23, 1-17) is coming off a 107-59 annihilation at the hands of the Syracuse Orange. It was the kind of defeat that probably had Oliver Purnell thinking of the title of an old Natalie Portman movie: “Anywhere But Here.” The Blue Demons allowed six ‘Cuse players to score in double figures, as the Orange shot an unconscious 71.4% for the game, and 78% from beyond the arc. Syracuse was in such a zone, they were even making their free throws to the tune of 90% (compared to 66% from the line for the season). DePaul shot 39% from the floor and just 16% (3-for-19) from beyond the arc. It was going to be a long shot anyway for the Blue Demons in Syracuse without its leading scorer, standout freshman Cleveland Melvin (14.3 PPG, 5.0 RPG) in the lineup. Melvin sprained his left thumb against St. John’s February 23 and is out for the season. Without Melvin, DePaul will likely lean heavily on sophomore forward Tony Freeland (9.7 PPG) who scored 25 against the Orange, and second leading scorer Brandon Young (12.4 PPG), who struggled on Saturday, scoring just five points on 2-for-10 shooting. Despite its recent woes, DePaul has won a Big East Tournament game more recently than Connecticut. It happened in 2009, when the Blue Demons (also seeded 16th) defeated Cincinnati 67-57 to break what was an 18-game losing streak.

When the Huskies make the short bus ride to New York City to play in Madison Square Garden, there will be more than a few demons (as opposed to Blue Demons) to exorcise. While the team has not won a conference tournament game since defeating Georgetown 66-62 on March 10, 2005, its star player has had some MSG memories he’d just as soon forget. February 10 this year, Kemba Walker, who hails from the Bronx, shot 4-of-16 against St. John’s in that 89-72 loss. In last year’s tournament loss to St. John’s, Walker went 4-of-17. Prior to that game last season, he went 5-for-14 against Kentucky in a three-point loss. About two weeks prior to that contest, he went 4-for-12 in a nine-point loss to Duke. All totaled, in his past four games in the Garden, all Husky losses, Walker is shooting just under 29%. If the Huskies are to break a number of losing streaks (six straight in the tourney, four straight in the garden, two straight presently) they will need their best player to get hot early and stay hot. Walker is currently hot, coming off a huge 34-point effort in Saturday’s loss to Notre Dame. He also scored 31 in the January victory over DePaul while teammate Jeremy Lamb chipped in with 13. If they can show anything close to that form again, they should be ticketed for a Wednesday duel with Georgetown at high noon.

But is UConn really 14½ points better than DePaul? Based on these numbers for the Huskies -- 3-8 ATS in past 11 games, 7-11 ATS in conference and 3-5 ATS after SU loss -- would signify the answer is no. Also consider that the Blue Demons are 5-2 ATS in the past seven games when pitted as a double-digit underdog and are nearly .500 in conference play ATS (8-9-1). Connecticut should win, but if the Huskies get a huge lead, don’t be surprised to see Walker take a seat and the final margin shrink as Jim Calhoun tries to keep his star fresh for Wednesday. The pick here is DePaul to cover. The FoxSheets provide another highly-rated reason to side with the Blue Demons.

Play On - Neutral court teams (DEPAUL) - revenging a home loss vs. opponent, off 2 straight losses against conference rivals. (38-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.6%, +25.9 units. Rating = 3*).

The FoxSheets also show a four-star reason to choose the Under.

Play Under - Neutral court teams against the total (DEPAUL) - off a road loss by 20 points or more, a bad team, winning 20% to 40% of their games on the season. (43-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.2%, +29.8 units. Rating = 4*).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-08-2011, 07:36 PM

Butler visits Milwaukee for Horizon League title

BUTLER BULLDOGS (22-9, #2 seed in Horizon)

at MILWAUKEE PANTHERS (19-12, #1 seed in Horizon)

Horizon League Tournament – Championship Game
Tip-off: Tuesday, 9:00 p.m. EDT – Milwaukee, WI
Line: Butler -3, Total: 137

Three teams tied for the regular season title in the Horizon League at 13-5. One was the Cleveland State Vikings, who had the best overall record (26-8) of any school in the conference. The other was the Butler Bulldogs (22-9). You remember them, NCAA Championship runner-up last year, the real life Hoosiers in long baggy shorts living on the legacy of one of the most famous missed shots in NCAA history. And then there is the “other” team, the Milwaukee Panthers. They are 19-12 overall, and the team whose hopes of making the NCAA Tournament rely most heaviest on its ability to win the Horizon League Championship. Sometimes in the case of a two or three-way tie for first place, one of the teams might have backed its way into that position. Not the case for the Panthers, Rob Jeter’s team clawed its way to the top the hard way, by defeating Cleveland State once on the road, and sweeping the season series from the defending champion Bulldogs, who were a perfect 18-0 last season en route to winning the Horizon League tournament. Now it’s down to one game with an NCAA berth on the line, and as far as Milwaukee is concerned, two out of three just won’t be good enough this year. They need the sweep.

The Panthers will have one distinct advantage on their side, the home court advantage. This year’s 2011 Horizon League tournament is concluding on the Panthers’ home floor, the U.S. Cellular Arena in Milwaukee, after beginning at various campus sites around the league. Milwaukee is presently 10-4 on its home floor after a 70-63 semifinal victory over Valparaiso earned them a spot in the finals. "It's great to see the Cell rocking and the fans and the city excited," coach Jeter said after the game.

Senior forward and leading scorer Anthony Hill posted 24 points to go along with 11 rebounds to hold off a Valpo comeback attempt. Kaylon Williams had 16 points and Tony Meier added 15 for the Panthers, who were 24-for-36 from the free-throw line compared to 5-for-9 for Valparaiso. The Crusaders came within four points of the Panthers with 2:05 to play, but Milwaukee was superior down the stretch from the FT line to earn the spot in the title game. On January 3, the Panthers dominated Butler in the first meeting of the year between the two squads, winning 76-52. Junior guard Kaylon Williams recorded his first career triple-double in the game, scoring 10 points to go with 10 rebounds and 10 assists (a 10-10-10 special), while Hill added 22 and junior forward Tony Meier added 20. The Bulldogs shot just under 39% in the first meeting, and while the second meeting was decided by six points in overtime, Butler still only managed 39.4% in that game. In completing the regular-season sweep, the Panthers became the first team since ‘04-05 to defeat Butler twice in the regular season.

Butler enters the game coming off of a 76-68 semifinal victory over the Cleveland State Vikings, making it eight straight wins for the Bulldogs. Shawn Vanzant led the team with 18 points, while Final Four veterans Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard tallied 15 and 14 points respectively. Butler shot much better against the Vikes than it did this season against the Panthers, as Brad Stephens’ team buried 47% of its shots, and over 38% (9-for-24) from beyond the arc. Butler is 3-8 SU (2-8-1 ATS) in the past 11 games against the Panthers at Milwaukee. That includes the 24-point debacle from the first week in January and lopsided losses in the 2003 and '06 league championship games. The Bulldogs will bring their experience to the table, as senior Howard (16.7 PPG, 7.9 RPG) was named Horizon League POY for the third time last week, and junior Mack (15.3 PPG, 3.6 APG) was named to the second team All-Conference. Butler’s reputation is well deserved, but Tuesday night the Bulldogs will have to match that reputation with better shooting (49-for-125, 39.2% combined in the two losses) if they are to beat the Panthers for the first time, and the most important time, this season.

Butler has not been a good road team this season at 6-6 SU and 4-7-1 ATS. Milwaukee is 9-4 SU and 8-5 ATS on its home floor. The Panthers are also the superior bet in conference play this season at 13-6 ATS (68%), while the Bulldogs are 7-11 ATS (39%). Milwaukee is also 9-2 ATS in its past 11 games while Butler is 4-8-1 ATS in its past 13 contests. The last advantage going the way of the Panthers is their 3-1 ATS mark as a home dog, while the Bulldogs are 3-6 ATS as a road favorite this season. All signs point to Milwaukee taking home the Horizon League Championship. The FoxSheets provide a four-star reason to side with the Panthers.

Rob Jeter is 35-12 ATS (74.5%, +21.8 Units) when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days as the coach of MILWAUKEE. The average score was MILWAUKEE 70.7, OPPONENT 69.6 - (Rating = 4*).

The FoxSheets also show a highly-rated reason to play the Over.

BUTLER is 19-4 OVER (82.6%, +14.6 Units) after leading its last 3 games by 5+ points at the half since 1997. The average score was BUTLER 68.6, OPPONENT 62.3 - (Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-08-2011, 07:37 PM

Rockets try to stay hot in Phoenix

HOUSTON ROCKETS (33-32)

at PHOENIX SUNS (32-29)

Tip-off: Tuesday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Phoenix -5, Total: 216.5

Even with the nagging injuries and everything else that goes along with the dog days of March, both Phoenix and Houston are turning it on for the stretch run. Both teams are on the outside looking in at the Western Conference playoff picture, but have turned it on since the All-Star break. Houston has won seven of eight SU (6-2 ATS in that span) while the Suns have won five of seven SU and ATS.

Phoenix has dominated this series of late, winning six in a row, SU and ATS, over the Rockets, topping 110 points in every one of those games. Steve Nash has always played in big part in those wins. Over the past three seasons, spanning eight games, he’s averaging 20.4 PPG on 50.9% FG (54.2% 3-pt FG) and 12.1 APG against the Rockets.

How effective Nash can be for the rest of this season is the question. He’s been suffering from a “pelvis injury” which is limiting his movement. While Phoenix has played well since the break, Nash has not, averaging just 9.6 PPG on 36.1% shooting and a miserable 15.8% clip from behind the arc. The Suns will also be without stretch big man Channing Frye (shoulder), who had been shooting very well since the break (44.7% from three). A balanced attack led by a couple of additions from December’s trade with Orlando have been carrying the team through this recent strong stretch. Marcin Gortat is averaging 15.7 PPG on 56.8% shooting and 9.4 RPG, while defensive specialist Mickael Pietrus is averaging 12.7 PPG, hitting 44.1% of his threes.

While the Suns have injury issues, fatigue will likely play a role for Houston, which just played at Sacramento Monday night. The Rockets have gelled nicely of late, possibly because of trading moody point guard Aaron Brooks to the Suns at the deadline. Kevin Martin is averaging 22.0 PPG since the break and is getting to the line on a regular basis, where he is shooting 93.1% over the past eight games. Houston has also gotten a boost from swingman Chase Budinger, who moved into the starting lineup six games ago. Since the break, he’s averaging 17.3 PPG and had posted a plus/minus of +23 in each of the past two games, lopsided wins over the Pacers and Kings. Houston has now won seven of eight SU on the road, covering the spread in six of those wins.

The Suns’ ability to get hot from three certainly gives them a certain amount of volatility, but between Nash’s nagging injury and the absence of Frye, I don’t think they have enough to pull away from the red-hot Rockets. My pick is Houston.

Among other trends, the FoxSheets point out that you should respect the Rockets’ recent surge:

Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (HOUSTON) - hot team - having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season. (67-33 over the last 5 seasons, 67%, +30.7 units. Rating = 2*).

I’m also expecting the total to go Over, with this four-star FoxSheets trend concerning Phoenix coach Alvin Gentry.

Gentry is 17-2 OVER (89.5%, +14.8 Units) in home games against Southwest Division opponents as the coach of PHOENIX. The average score was PHOENIX 113.6, OPPONENT 108.9 - (Rating = 4*).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-08-2011, 07:38 PM

Trending: Big East, Big Ten ATS breakdown

As Championship Week progresses, the big boys will be taking center stage, starting with the five-day, 16-team Big East battle royal that commences Tuesday and concludes on Saturday. Let’s take a look at how the Big East stacks up by ATS winning percentage over the past 10 games:

Big East Tournament
Big East ATS Win Pct., Past 10 Games
Louisville 7-3
Notre Dame 7-3
Seton Hall 7-3
St. John’s 7-3
Rutgers 6-3-1
Pittsburgh 6-4
South Florida 6-4
Syracuse 6-4
DePaul 5-4-1
Cincinnati 5-5
Marquette 5-5
West Virginia 4-6
Connecticut 3-7
Georgetown 3-7
Providence 2-8
Villanova 1-9
Despite its improbable loss at West Virginia on Saturday, Louisville enters the tournament winners of five straight ATS. The Cardinals, who have one the four double-byes, await West Virginia, Marquette or Providence, none of whom are above .500 ATS in their past 10 games. Combined, they are just 11-19 (37%) ATS in that span.

At the bottom of the list is Villanova, which is not only 1-9 in its past 10, but also 1-11 (8%) ATS in its past 12 games. That comes after a run of seven straight ATS wins in January. Villanova faces South Florida on Tuesday. The Wildcats won and covered in their lone meeting with South Florida in January, but the Bulls are a solid 6-4 ATS in their last 10. If Villanova can get past USF, Cincinnati will be waiting. While the Bearcats are 5-5 ATS in their past 10, the five ATS wins are in their past six games (83%). The winner of that matchup on Wednesday will face Notre Dame, another of the double-bye recipients, on Thursday. The Fighting Irish are 7-3 ATS in their past 10 games and an even stronger 9-3 ATS in their past 12 (75%).

Seton Hall, Rutgers, St. John’s and Syracuse, all 60% or better ATS in their past 10 games, are clustered together in one section of the bracket, while Connecticut (3-8, 27%), DePaul (0-3-1 ATS in past 4) and Georgetown (5 straight losses ATS) will fight it out for the opportunity to take on top-seeded Pittsburgh (6-4 ATS in past 10).

Big Ten Tournament
While the Big East could have as many as 11 teams advancing to the NCAA Tournament, the Big Ten figures to send six of its 11 members into the expanded field of 68. The Big Ten Tournament runs from Thursday through Sunday. Here is how the Big Ten schools have fared ATS in their past 10 games:
Michigan 9-1
Illinois 6-3-1
Purdue 6-3-1
Penn State 6-4
Iowa 5-5
Ohio State 5-5
Wisconsin 5-5
Michigan State 4-5-1
Indiana 3-6-1
Northwestern 3-7
Minnesota 1-9

Michigan enters the tourney 10-1 ATS in its past 11, but faces Illinois (6-3-1 in past 10) in Friday’s 4 vs. 5 matchup. The winner of that game will likely face top-seeded Ohio State, which is an even 5-5 ATS in its past 10, but is riding a four-game ATS winning streak. The Buckeyes will have a favorable matchup both SU and ATS in their opener, regardless of who wins the 8 vs. 9 game featuring Northwestern and Minnesota. These two disappointing squads are a combined 4-16 (20%) ATS in their past 10 games.

Thursday’s 6 vs. 11 game between Penn State and Indiana offers some value as the Nittany Lions are 5-1 (83%) ATS in their past six contests while the Hoosiers have dropped five straight ATS.

Michigan State, firmly on the bubble, has shown some signs of life of late, going 4-2 ATS in their past six contests after a dreadful nine-game ATS losing streak. The Spartans take on Iowa on Thursday for the right to play Purdue.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-08-2011, 07:39 PM

Trending: NBA road breakdown

This edition of our NBA Trending column will focus on how road teams have fared this season. Through Monday, March 7, NBA road teams are a combined 380-564 SU (40%), but have a winning ATS mark of 481-443-20 (52%) when playing on the road, which includes Toronto’s two “road” games in London against “home” team New Jersey. We found some interesting trends when conducting our road breakdown below.

Road Teams ATS
Best ATS Road Records
1. New York 22-8 (73%)
2. San Antonio 20-10 (67%)
3. Memphis 22-12 (65%)
4. Dallas 20-11 (65%)
5. Philadelphia 19-11 (63%)
Dallas and San Antonio are the two best road teams in the league SU, both winning over 70% of the time. But the other three teams on this list are all sub-.500 road teams. New York is only one game under .500 SU (15-16), but Memphis is 14-20 SU and Philadelphia is 11-20 SU away from home.
Worst ATS Road Records
1. Washington 9-21 (30%)
2. New Jersey 12-19 (39%)
3. L.A. Clippers 12-18 (40%)
4. Orlando 12-16 (43%)
Washington is the worst road team in the league at 1-29 SU, New Jersey is tied for second-worst at 4-27 SU and the Clippers are sixth-worst at 6-25 SU. The oddball here is Orlando, which has the seventh-best SU road mark in the NBA at 16-13.

Road Favorites and Underdogs
But let’s dig a littler deeper in terms of favorites and underdogs.
Road Favorites: 182-96 SU (65%), 139-134 ATS (51%)
Road Underdogs: 187-463 SU (29%), 331-304 ATS (52%)
Six teams have not been favored on the road at all this season -- Cleveland, Detroit, Minnesota, New Jersey, Sacramento and Washington. However, these five teams have been road favorites at least 20 times.

Most Times Favored on Road
30 L.A. Lakers: 21-9 SU (70%), 17-13 ATS (57%)
25 Miami: 18-7 SU (72%), 15-10 ATS (60%)
22 Boston: 15-7 SU (68%), 10-12 ATS (42%)
21 San Antonio: 16-5 SU (76%), 13-7 ATS (65%)
21 Orlando: 14-7 SU (67%), 10-11 ATS (48%)
All five of these elite teams are winning at least two-thirds of the time SU when favored on the road, and have combined for a quality 65-53 ATS mark (55%).

In terms of best success as a road favorite, there are five teams winning at least 60% ATS when favored away from home.

Best Road FAVORITE ATS Records (min. 5 games)
1. Philadelphia 4-1 (80%)
2. San Antonio 13-7 (65%)
3. Portland 7-4 (64%)
4. Houston 5-3 (63%)
5. Miami 15-10 (60%)
Philadelphia and San Antonio were also on the list of best ATS road records overall, but three new teams join this group.
Portland is 0-2-2 ATS when it’s a road favorite of 4 or more points, but the Blazers are a stellar 7-2-1 ATS when favored by less than 4 points away from Rose Garden.

Houston is scoring 111.8 PPG in eight games as a road favorite, but does not have a better success rate because it is allowing 106.8 PPG.

Miami’s value has a heavy correlation with point spreads. The Heat are 6-2 ATS when favored by at least 8 points, but just 1-4 ATS with a spread of 5.5 to 7.5 points. They are also 7-0 ATS when giving 3.5 to 5 points, but just 1-4 ATS when giving less than four points. Also, the Under is 15-10 (60%) when Miami is a road favorite, but the Over is 7-1 (88%) when the Heat are a road underdog.

Worst Road FAVORITE ATS Records (min. 5 games)
1. New Orleans 4-8 (33%)
2. Memphis 3-6 (33%)
3. Oklahoma City 5-8 (38%)
4. New York 2-3 (40%)
New Orleans is 2-7 ATS when favored by at least 2 points on the road. Six of these ATS losses were also SU defeats, with the only non-covering SU win being a 75-71 snooze fest at Sacramento back on Nov. 21.

Memphis is 0-5 ATS when favored by at least 3½ points, with just one SU win in this scenario, a two-point victory at five-point underdog Toronto. The Under has been a great play when the Grizzlies are favored on the road, occurring 78% of the time (7-2).

Oklahoma City attracts shootouts when it is favored on the road. The Over has hit 9-of-13 times (69%) with the Thunder scoring 105.9 PPG, and the opponent pumping in 104.8 PPG.

New York is a surprise here, considering the Knicks own the best ATS road record in the league, but 2-3 is not a huge sample size. However all three ATS defeats were also SU defeats, two to Cleveland and one to Minnesota.

The sample size is obviously a lot greater for road underdogs than it is for road favorites with 24 NBA teams pitted as road dogs at least 15 times this year. The L.A. Lakers (4), Boston (7), Orlando (8), Miami (8), San Antonio (8) and Chicago (13) are the six exceptions.

Best Road UNDERDOG ATS Records (min. 15 games)
1. New York 19-5 (79%)
2. Memphis 18-6 (75%)
3. Dallas 12-4 (75%)
4. New Orleans 14-8 (64%)
5. Philadelphia 15-10 (60%)
Four of these five teams (NY, MEM, DAL, PHI) were also on the list of best road ATS records, so it’s not a big surprise they are part of this list too, considering most road teams are also underdogs. But the one exception here is New Orleans who was just shown to be the worst road favorite in the entire league. The Hornets are only 3-4 ATS when getting fewer than 4 points, but when the spread is +4 or higher, they are a whopping 11-4 ATS (73%). They are keeping scores close on the defensive end, as the Under has occurred 71% of the time (17-7) New Orleans is a road underdog.

Worst Road UNDERDOG ATS Records (min. 15 games)
1. Washington 9-21 (30%)
2. New Jersey 12-19 (39%)
3. L.A. Clippers 11-15 (42%)
4. Indiana 10-13 (43%)
5. Portland 7-9 (44%)
Washington, New Jersey and the L.A. Clippers were the three worst road teams ATS, so their inclusion on this list was also expected. Indiana has a strong 6-4 ATS when pitted as an underdog of less than 7 points. But when the Pacers get 7+ points from the elite NBA teams, they are just 4-9 ATS, losing those games by an average of 11.5 PPG (106.8 to 95.3 PPG).

Road Teams Over/Under
Below are the top NBA road teams in terms of Over/Under.
Highest OVER Pct. in Road Games
1. Utah 20 Over, 11 Under (65%)
2. Cleveland 19-11 (63%)
3t. Dallas 19-12 (61%)
3t. San Antonio 19-12 (61%)
5. Washington 18-12 (60%)

San Antonio (6-2 Over as road underdog) is the only team on this list among the 10 highest-scoring road clubs in the NBA, placing sixth in road points. Dallas (10-4 Under as road favorite) ranks 11th in points on the road, Utah is 13th, Washington is 21st and Cleveland is 25th. However, the Wizards have allowed 108.8 PPG on the road and the Cavaliers are surrendering 108.2 PPG away from home, and only Minnesota (109.4 PPG) has allowed more than these two on the road.

Highest UNDER Pct. in Road Games
1. Detroit 21 Under, 10 Over (68%)
2. New Orleans 24-12 (67%)
3. Memphis 21-12 (64%)
4. Golden State 19-11 (63%)
5. Chicago 19-12 (61%)
Chicago and New Orleans rank 2nd and 3rd in fewest points allowed on the road, but the others are not in the Top 10 in this category. Detroit is 11th, Memphis (7-2 Under as road favorite) is 14th and Golden State is 27th, or fourth-worst in the NBA.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-08-2011, 07:39 PM

Heat try to end 4-game skid hosting Portland

PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS (36-27)

at MIAMI HEAT (43-20)

Tip-off: Tuesday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Miami -8.5, Total: 189.5

The surging Trail Blazers are coming into Tuesday night winners of three in a row to face the “crying” Heat who have dropped four straight games.

Fighting through injuries all year, the Portland Trail Blazers find themselves in sixth place in the tough Western Conference with a 36-27 record. The Blazers have won 10 of 13 and are coming off a nice win at Orlando. In the 89-85 victory Monday against the Magic, Portland was fortunate that Dwight Howard had to sit out due to a suspension. LaMarcus Aldridge (22.3 PPG) took advantage of the giant absence, (pun intended) and scored 24 points on 10-of-18 shooting. The last time Portland met Miami, Aldridge dropped 31 points and 14 rebounds, but the Heat prevailed in overtime. Aldridge should have another big game Tuesday with the weak frontcourt of the guard-heavy Heat.

The Heat are ready to get back on the floor after suffering an 87-86 defeat Sunday to Chicago where afterwards coach Eric Spoelstra stated that some players were crying in the locker room. The tears may be due to their NBA-worst 1-for-16 shooting with a chance to tie or win in the final seconds or their 1-9 record versus the top five teams in the NBA. With all that being said, the Heat still are third in the Eastern Conference and have two of the top four scorers (LeBron James 26.2 PPG & Dwyane Wade 25.4 PPG) in the NBA. Playing Portland may get James back on track, where he has averaged 34.1 PPG in his past seven meetings with the Blazers and won all seven. The last time these teams met, James had 44 points and 13 rebounds, alongside Wade’s 34 points in a 107-100 overtime victory. That kind of effort from the two stars is exactly what the Heat hoped for when they signed James in the offseason.

Portland has been under .500 on the road going 15-17 SU and 14-14 ATS and it is also subpar against teams with a winning record (11-14 ATS). The Blazers have fared well in Miami, going 7-2 ATS in their past nine meetings at the American Airlines Arena. Portland also has been good revenging a loss against an opponent going 6-2 ATS. Miami is 10-19 ATS in home games, 10-15 ATS against teams with winning records and 4-10 ATS coming off an upset loss. With virtually no trends heading the Heat’s direction, I think Miami will win at home, but Portland will cover getting a bundle of points. The FoxSheets also like the Blazers to cover with these two trends.

PORTLAND is 14-3 ATS (82.4%, +10.7 Units) in road games versus poor passing teams, averaging <=20 assists/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PORTLAND 97.6, OPPONENT 92.5 - (Rating = 2*).

PORTLAND is 15-4 ATS (78.9%, +10.6 Units) when playing their 2nd road game in 2 days over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PORTLAND 96.3, OPPONENT 92.1 - (Rating = 1*).

Nine of the past 13 series meetings in Miami have finished Over the total and the FoxSheets also expect this game to finish Over the total.

PORTLAND is 22-8 OVER (73.3%, +13.2 Units) in road games versus poor passing teams, averaging <=20 assists/game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was PORTLAND 99.0, OPPONENT 93.8 - (Rating = 1*).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-08-2011, 07:41 PM

NCAA Betting: Villanova Wildcats vs South Florida

New York City’s Madison Square Garden hosts the Big East Tournament this week, and the conference has a chance to advance a record 11 teams to the upcoming NCAA Tournament.

There are a couple of interesting early matchups in the bracket, with lowly South Florida (9-22 straight up, 15-13-1 against the spread) hoping to upset a struggling Villanova (21-10 SU, 11-16-1 ATS) squad.

The Big East Conference is so strong that the Wildcats are a top-25 team nationally, but just a 10th-seed entering Madison Square Garden. The Bulls are the 15th-seeded team in the 16-team conference, and their season will be over with the next loss.

Villanova travels to the Big Apple hoping to get back on the winning track after losing its last four games SU to finish the regular season. The Wildcats are also a dismal 1-11 ATS their last 12 games, and haven’t covered a contest since beating West Virginia Feb. 5 at home.

Villanova concluded its regular season with Saturday’s setback to Pittsburgh as a 9 ½-point road underdog, 60-50. The combined 110 points never seriously threatened the 134 ½-point closing total, ending a string of back-to-back ‘over’ outings.

The Wildcats were on the short end of rebounding (30-22) and assists (12-4), while shooting a dismal 37 percent (19-of-51) from the field and 32 percent (7-of-22) from behind the arc. Guard Maalik Wayns led all scorers with 27 points on 9-of-19 shooting, but he was the only Villanova player to reach double digits in scoring. Guard Corey Fisher provided seven in the setback, while forward Antonio Pena added six and three rebounds.

South Florida wrapped up its regular season with consecutive setbacks SU and ATS, and was listed as a double-digit underdog in both matchups. The Bulls fell to St. John’s Saturday as an 11 ½-point road underdog, 72-56, while the combined 128 points slithered ‘over’ the 127 ½-point closing total.

South Florida actually led by two points at halftime, 32-30, before getting dominated in the second half, 42-24. The Bulls were on the short end of rebounds (32-23) and turnovers (18-12), while shooting 41 percent (19-of-46) from the field and 23 percent (3-of-13) from 3-point land.

Forward Augustus Gilchrist paced the offense with 16 points and four rebounds, while guard Shaun Noriega had 14. Forward Ron Anderson contributed 13 and six in the setback, while forward Jarrid Famous had 10.

Villanova is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS the previous five encounters with South Florida. The Wildcats won the lone encounter this season Jan. 6 as a 7 ½-point road favorite, 83-71, while the combined 154 points soared ‘over’ the 128-point closing total.

Villanova guard Corey Stokes is ‘questionable’ against the Bulls due to an injured hamstring, while guard Dallas Ouano (knee) is ‘out’ indefinitely. The Wildcats are presently projected to be a seventh seed for the NCAA Tournament unless the recent freefall continues.

South Florida has seen the ‘under’ go 8-3 its last 11 games overall. Outside of two SU victories over last-place DePaul, the Bulls haven’t won a game since Jan. 16 at home versus Providence.

ESPNU will provide coverage of Tuesday’s tipoff beginning at 4:00 p.m. PT. The winner of this contest will advance to Wednesday’s game against seventh-seed Cincinnati.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-08-2011, 07:42 PM

NCAA Betting: Butler guns for Horizon League title

Are the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers about to toss a wrench into the works? A win in Tuesday's Horizon League Championship over the Butler Bulldogs would surely cause a dilemma for the NCAA Tournament selection committee.

It's also got to tear at the hearts of Cleveland State backers who will need to cheer on rival Butler in this one if the Vikings are going to stand even a slight chance of making it to the dance.

The selection committee isn't really facing much of a predicament when it comes to the Horizon League. No more than two schools from the bunch will head to the tournament, possibly just one if Butler takes the title match. Cleveland State's only shot will be a Bulldogs win at US Cellular Arena in Milwaukee coupled with several early exits by bubble teams in the 'big boy' conference tourneys.

Cleveland State coach Gary Waters seemed resigned to not going to the NCAA tourney following Saturday's 76-68 setback to Butler in the HL semis.

"In regards to can we go in the tournament and have success, I think we can. But the NCAA has to see that, and they like the big boys. That’s all they talk about on ESPN, so they got the right to help people move forward," Waters noted following his team's latest defeat.

While the Vikings were busy giving away the regular season conference title and No. 1 seed for this tournament by dropping four of their final eight regular season games, Milwaukee was storming into the picture. The Panthers closed on a 9-1 straight-up run, 8-2 against the spread, to force a three-way tie in the Horizon League with Cleveland State and Butler, each 13-5 in conference play. Milwaukee won the tiebreaker and with that the host rights to thsi year's league tourney.

The Panthers' stretch to end the season included wins and covers versus Butler, Cleveland State and Valparaiso, a fourth HL club that is going to see a 23-11 record relegated to the NIT.

Milwaukee took out Valpo a second time in the HL semifinals last Saturday, 70-63, as slight one-point chalk. The Crusaders were in foul trouble most of the contest, the Panthers winning the game at the line for all intents and purposes with a 24-5 advantage in charity stripe scoring.

Butler advanced to Tuesday's title game with a 76-68 win last Saturday over Cleveland State, the third time this season the Bulldogs defeated the Vikings and covered the NCAA odds for their backers. Four-point chalk, Butler took a six-point lead into the break and then relied on senior Shawn Vanzant to hold that lead in the second half.

Vanzant, fourth on the team in scoring with an 8.1 PPG average, scored all 18 of his points in the second stanza, accounting for all but 11 of the Bulldogs' final 29 points in the game.

The Bulldogs will be gunning for their seventh Horizon League tournament title, third in the past four years, so Brad Stevens' team is obviously experienced and tested in these situations. Still, there's a lot to like about the Milwaukee Panthers. Start with the fact they will be on their home floor with a very vocal crowd behind them.

Milwaukee also has a pair of outright wins over the Bulldogs this season, each as a double-digit underdog. The most recent was an 86-80 overtime win Jan. 23 on the road at Hinkle Fieldhouse. Butler was laying 14 in that one, the final score shooting well past the 137-point total.

The Panthers were getting 10 points at home on Jan. 3 when they trashed the Bulldogs by a 76-52 count. Butler never led in the game and had no answer for Milwaukee junior Kaylon Williams who posted a triple-double with 10 points, 10 boards and 10 assists. That contest stayed 'under' the 134½ figure.

Rob Jeter's defensive scheme keyed Milwaukee winning both regular season games, the first time since the 2004-05 season the Panthers swept Butler. The Bulldogs aren't a great shooting team to start with, but they were held under 40 percent from the field in each loss, combining to hit just 11 of their 39 long range tries in the games.

Milwaukee will need to repeat some of that – it's especially important to take Butler guard Shelvin Mack out of his game – to take a third straight from the Bulldogs. I like the Panthers if the oddsmakers are generous enough to give them five points as well as a final score in the 132-135 range.

ESPN will carry the game beginning at 6 p.m. (PT).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-08-2011, 07:43 PM

NBA Betting: Red-hot Los Angeles Lakers in Atlanta

The two-time defending champion Los Angeles Lakers have silenced all their critics as they go for their eighth straight win Tuesday night in Atlanta.

The Lakers (45-19 straight-up, 31-32-1 against the spread) are also getting it done from an ATS perspective, 6-1 during the winning streak.

Coach Phil Jackson’s team saved its best for Sunday at the San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs were 29-2 SU at home heading in, but were overmatched in a 99-83 defeat as three-point favorites.

That game was over at halftime with a 28-point margin. Kobe Bryant led the way with 26 points, but it was the defense that stepped up and held the Spurs to 36 percent shooting.

The 182 combined points scored went ‘under’ the 191 ½-point total. The ‘under’ is 4-0 in Los Angeles’ last four games, allowing just 83.3 PPG. The defense is allowing 87 PPG during the last seven and one went into overtime.

Ironically, L.A. began this winning streak at home against Atlanta. The Feb. 22 encounter was another mismatch with a 104-80 final as eight-point favorites. The twin towers of Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol dominated the boards and there was a 54-32 advantage on the glass overall.

The Lakers are 23-11 SU and 19-14-1 ATS on the road this year. They’re 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four road games. That includes tough venues of Portland and Oklahoma City, in addition to San Antonio.

The Hawks (37-26 SU, 28-35 ATS) are in fifth place in the Eastern Conference (Los Angeles is third in the West), but are a team in transition.

Kirk Hinrich is starting at point guard after recently being acquired from Washington. Mike Bibby headed North in the swap, although he’s now with Miami. Atlanta is 3-3 SU and ATS since the trade, but 0-2 SU and ATS in the last two.

The last game was Sunday at home against the Knicks. New York got the 92-79 win as 3 ½-point ‘dogs despite missing point guard Chauncey Billups. Atlanta got to the line just nine times.

The 171 combined points scored went way ‘under’ the 202 ½-point total. The ‘under’ is 9-2 in Atlanta’s last 11 games, the Hawks scoring 100 points just once in that span.

This matchup Tuesday is a tough one. Josh Smith (16.7 PPG, 8.8 RPG) and Al Horford (16 PPG, 9.9 RPG) are very good players at power forward and center. However, they give up three and two inches respectively to Gasol and Bynum. Look for more minutes from Atlanta’s backup big men to use up some fouls.

Guard Joe Johnson (19.1 PPG) is the team’s leading scorer, but has a tough assignment going against Bryant. A big scoring night from sixth man Jamal Crawford (15 PPG) is a necessity.

The Hawks do have precedence for beating the Lakers at home. They’re 3-0 SU and ATS the last three years. Bynum was injured last year, a 109-92 Hawks win as 1 ½-point ‘dogs.

Atlanta is just 18-11 SU and 10-19 ATS at home this year. It’s 1-5 ATS in its last six home games.

Atlanta is just 2-9 ATS in its last 11 against the Western Conference.

There are no significant injuries to report for ether team. L.A. just got back reserve forward Matt Barnes (knee). Smith (knee) also returned last game after missing two contests.

Tip-off will be 4 p.m. (PT) from Philips Arena and broadcast locally. The Lakers can’t afford to look ahead to a Thursday tilt at Miami. Atlanta next visits Chicago on Friday.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-08-2011, 07:44 PM

NHL Betting Preview: Vancouver at Phoenix

The Vancouver Canucks will look to expand their lead in the Western Conference standings over Detroit when they face off against the Phoenix Coyotes this Tuesday night at the US Airways Arena. Game time is set for 6 p.m. (PT) and it will be broadcast regionally on the Fox Sports Network.

Vancouver continues to lead the way in the West with three wins in its last four games including a 3-1 victory over Los Angeles on Saturday as a 101 road underdog and a 3-0 shutout over Anaheim as a 125 road favorite this past Sunday. The Canucks are now 42-16-9 straight up on the year (32-25 against the spread) with a league-high 93 points. They currently have a seven-point lead over the Red Wings in the conference.

It all begins and ends with the Sedin brothers in terms of offensive production for this team. Daniel has scored 34 goals and is first in the NHL in scoring with 81 points, while Henrik leads the league in assists with 61 and has a third-best 76 total points. Throw in Ryan Kesler’s 33 goals and its little wonder that Vancouver is third in the league in goals-per-game with 3.18.

Defensively, the Canucks have one of the best goalies in the NHL in Roberto Luongo who is allowing 2.21 goals per game with a .925 save percentage in 50 starts. Vancouver is the stingiest team in the league, giving up just 2.24 goals a game. It is ranked second against the power play with an 86.6 percent kill rate.

Phoenix’s eight-game winning streak in early February gave way to a recent five-game slide that was finally snapped with a 5-4 shootout win over Detroit this past Saturday as a 105 home underdog. The up and down nature of this team has left it four points behind San Jose in the Pacific Division and in sixth-place in the West. It is 34-23-10 SU (36-31 ATS) with a total of 78 points.

The Coyotes are averaging 2.79 goals a game and have done a great job at spreading the puck around with nine players scoring 10 or more goals this season. Radim Vrbata, Taylor Pratt and Martin Hanzal lead the way with 16 goals apiece, while defenseman Keith Yandle leads the team in assists with 44.

Ilya Bryzgalov should get the start tonight in goal for Phoenix. He has started 53 of the team’s 67 games this season and has a 2.60 GAA and a save percentage of .917. The Coyotes’ defense is giving up an average of 2.84 goals a game which is ranked 17th in the league. They are ranked near the bottom of the league against the power play with a 77.9 percent kill rate.

Vancouver is 35-19 as a favorite and 7-6 as an underdog. The total has stayed ‘under’ in nine of its last 10 games.

The Canucks might be without winger Mason Raymond for this match. The Calgary native injured a shoulder in the win at Anaheim on Sunday and is officially listed as questionable.

Phoenix is 16-14 as a favorite and 18-19 as an underdog. The total has gone ‘over’ in four of its last six games and in 55.2 percent of its games this year.

Head-to-head, there two have split this season with the Coyotes winning 3-2 as a 153 home underdog in November and the Canucks rolling to a 6-0 shutout on Feb.2 as a 128 road favorite. The total line for both those games was 5 ½.

This time around Vancouver should open as a mild road favorite and with the way it has been playing lately, remains a solid pick to run its current streak to three with a win in this one

**Dat Boi E** · 03-08-2011, 07:46 PM

good luck, Bum!

**StarDust Bum** · 03-08-2011, 08:00 PM

Big East Tourney - First Round
March 8, 2011

The first round of the Big East tournament is normally reserved for the lower tier teams that don’t have a prayer of making it to the big dance. Tuesday’s opening action at Madison Square Garden in NYC, however, gives us something different.

Villanova, Connecticut and Marquette all appear to be heading to the NCAA tournament next week. But a loss on Tuesday against the scrubs of the league can hurt seeding in the field of 68 or even get forced out of the tourney altogether.

The drama begins early with the Huskies facing DePaul, then Seton Hall will take on the Scarlet Knights to round out the day games. Primetime battles showcase the Wildcats playing South Florida, which will lead into the Golden Eagles matching up with Providence.

The betting shops aren't giving much chance to any of these teams to win the Big East tourney. After all, you must win five games in five days to do so. Sportsbook.com currently doesn't have any lines for UConn or 'Nova to win it all, lumping them into the plus-400 "field" bet (risk $100 to win $400).

Connecticut vs. DePaul – 12:00 p.m. EST, ESPN

Connecticut (21-9 straight up, 13-11 against the spread) comes into this game looking for something to stop the bleeding. The Huskies closed out the regular season with a 4-7 SU and 3-8 ATS. Jim Calhoun’s club finished up with a disappointing 70-67 loss to the Fighting Irish as a three-point home favorite. Kemba Walker put UConn on his back with 34 points and six boards. Yet he missed a key three-point attempt with eight seconds remaining in the game that would have put his Huskies up 70-69.

As bad as the Huskies think things are going for them, it’s worse to play for or on DePaul (7-23 SU, 14-14-1 ATS). The Blue Demons are on a five-game losing skid that has seen them fail to cover the spread in three of them with one push. Oliver Purnell’s team laid down last Saturday as they lost 107-59 to the Orange as a 19 ½-point road underdog. Only five DePaul players wound up with points against the ‘Cuse. Tony Freeland was the lone bright spot by scoring 25 points and six rebounds.

As of Tuesday morning, the Huskies have been listed as 15-point favorites with a total of 137 ½. Gamblers that believe DePaul will pick up the big upset will get a plus-1100 return (risk $100 to win $1100) on their money.

If history is to repeat itself here, then take Connecticut big in this first round test. The Huskies railed DePaul for an 82-62 win as 9 ½-point road favorites back on Jan. 15. Walker lit the Blue Demons up for 31 points, four boards and five assists. We shouldn’t be surprised by that win since UConn is 5-1 SU against DePaul since 2004. The Blue Demons are 3-3 ATS in that run, but 1-2 ATS over the last three games. Consider hammering the ‘under’ for this test as well as it has cashed tickets in all six of those meetings.

DePaul has been an underdog 23 times this season at the betting shops. The Blue Demons are 1-2 SU and 11-11-1 ATS in that stretch. UConn is 10-5 SU and 7-8 ATS when tabbed as a favorite.

The winner of this game will get to take on eighth-place Georgetown at noon EST on ESPN on Wednesday.

Seton Hall vs. Rutgers – 2:00 p.m. EST, ESPN2

The sheer size of the Big East makes any team in the league feel like they have a chance at getting into the big dance. That isn’t the case in this matchup as both the Pirates and Scarlet Knights are just looking to extend their respective seasons by one game.

Seton Hall (13-17 SU, 14-14 ATS) has nobody to blame but itself for not being relevant right now. After all, they have five losses on the schedule that were decided by five or fewer points. They have picked up a couple of good wins to close out the regular season. The Pirates doused a red-hot St. John’s side 84-70 as three-point home pups last Thursday. They followed that up with an 85-72 triumph over Marquette as one-point home underdogs on March 5. The win against the Golden Eagles was particularly impressive as six Seton Hall players scored at least 10 points, led by Jeremy Hazell’s 21.

I’d like to say something good about Rutgers (14-16 SU, 12-12-2 ATS) in this spot, but it’s tough to do. The Scarlet Knights closed out the year 1-5 SU and 2-3-1 ATS to help them secure the 13th place in the Big East. Rutgers actually held a 38-33 advantage at halftime against the Friars, but wound up losing 75-74 to them as a 3 ½-point road pup. The game could have went to overtime had Mike Coburn not missed a foul shot in the waning moments of the game.

Seton Hall has been tabbed as a four-point favorite with a total of 129 ½ at most betting shops. You can grab the Scarlet Knights to win at plus-165 (risk $100 to win $165).

These teams met twice this season, with the road side winning and covering on both occasions. But Seton Hall has the clear edge in the head-to-head history with a 5-1 SU and 3-3 ATS. The ‘under is 4-1-1 during that stretch.

The Pirates have been dependable favorites when tabbed as such at the betting shops, going 8-5 SU and ATS this season. The ‘over’ went 8-5 in those games as well.

Rutgers has not done fans any favors by going 3-12 SU when listed as an underdog in Big East play. However, they aren’t terrible to back to cover, evidenced by its 8-7 ATS record this season. The ‘over’ is 8-7 in those tests.

A date with St. John’s awaits the winner of this contest at 2:00 p.m. EST on ESPN the following day. I’m pretty sure that Steve Lavin wants to get another crack at the Pirates, should they win.

Villanova vs. South Florida – 7:00 p.m. EST, ESPN

If there was ever a team that looked forward to the regular season coming to a close, it has to be Villanova (21-10 SU, 11-16-1 ATS). This is a team that started the year at 16-1 SU and 8-5-1 ATS to rank seventh in the AP Poll. Then the season collapsed to an extent for Jay Wright’s Wildcats, going 5-9 SU and 3-11 ATS in the bulk of league play. That, of course, includes a 4-0 SU and ATS skid to wind down the season.

The Wildcats finished off the season with a 60-50 setback to Pittsburgh as 9 ½-point road pups. Oddly enough, this was a fairly good performance out of ‘Nova, who tried to slow the tempo down. What was an issue for them was Maalik Wayns being the only player to score in the double-digits with 27 points. Take Wayns out of the score sheet and the ‘Cats shot just 31 percent from the field.

There was hope to have Corey Stokes back in the lineup for this game. Stokes missed the game against Pitt with a hamstring injury and is still listed as “questionable.” That’s 14.9 points per game missing from Villanova’s lineup.

South Florida (9-22 SU, 15-13-1 ATS) wishes that it could have the same type of collapse that the Wildcats had. The Bulls have never been able to get on level footing all season. They’ve won just three Big East games all year long, two of those victories coming against DePaul. USF finished off the year with a 72-56 loss to the Johnnies as a 12-point road underdog on March 5. Ron Anderson Jr. had the most complete game of anyone on the Bulls that day, scoring 13 points with six rebounds. Augustus Gilchrist did supply 16 points of his own in the losing effort.

The sportsbooks have posted Villanova as a 9 ½-point “chalk” for this game with a total of 126. South Florida can be taken for the outright win at plus-450 (risk $100 to win $450).

Villanova has won all five meetings since 2006 with the Bulls, the year they joined the Big East. Plus, the Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in that stretch of games. The ‘under’ holds a slight 3-2 edge.

While the ‘Cats dominate the history books against South Florida, current standing will make bettors shy away. Villanova is 4-6 SU and 1-9 ATS in its last 10 Big East games as a favorite. The ‘under’ is a healthy 7-3 in those contests.

South Florida is 0-15 SU and 7-8 ATS this year as an underdog in league battles. The ‘under’ is 8-6 during that run.

No. 7 seed Cincinnati will be waiting for the winner of this showdown the following night at 7:00 p.m. EST on ESPN.

Marquette vs. Providence – 9:00 p.m. EST, ESPN

Of any team that must advance out of the first round for a NCAA tourney berth, it’s Marquette (18-13 SU, 14-11 ATS).

The Golden Eagles have played one of the tougher schedules in college basketball, evidenced by them coming in No. 28 in strength of schedule. That’s what happens when you take on 12 ranked teams during the course of the regular season. What Marquette’s problem is that they’ve gone 3-9 SU against those teams in the AP Poll. Bettors shouldn’t give a damn about that since they’re 8-4 ATS in those ranked games. The ‘under’ is 8-4 in that group of tests.

As strong as that ATS mark is, Marquette is only as good as its last game. Unfortunately for them it was an 85-72 loss to the Pirates as a one-point road “chalk” last Saturday. The Golden Eagles couldn’t snuff Seton Hall’s offense in this battle, allowing them to hit 49 percent from the field and 57 percent from three-point land. Plus, the Pirates’ bench outscored Marquette’s reserves 33-18.

Providence (15-16 SU, 11-16 ATS) has to feel like they can make some noise in this tourney early on after beating edging the Scarlet Knights 75-74 on March 5. Marshon Brooks put in 28 points for the Friars, which helped him set the single season scoring record in Big East history with 468 points. Too bad he could score a little more as Rutgers wound up covering as a 3 ½-point home favorite.

Marquette has been installed as a 7 ½-point favorite with a total of 154. The Friars are currently posted at plus-280 (risk $100 to win $280) to pull off the shocker.

These two teams should remember each other quite well, having just met back on Feb. 27. The Golden Eagles won 86-62 as 10 ½-point home favorites on Feb. 27. Marquette has won six straight against the Friars, covering the number five times in a row. The ‘over’ is 4-2 in those head-to-head meetings.

The Golden Eagles have been solid favorites to back this year in conference matches, going 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS. The ‘over’ is 9-3 in those contests as well.

Providence is just 2-12 SU in Big East contests that they were posted as an underdog. It was slightly better for our purposes as the Friars went 6-8 ATS.

The Mountaineers await the victor of this contest for a 9:00 p.m. EST tip-off on Wednesday night on ESPN.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-08-2011, 08:04 PM

Mid-Major Report
March 8, 2011

This column will provide daily betting updates from the Atlantic 10, Mid-American Conference (MAC) and Conference USA (CUSA) throughout Championship Week.
Atlantic 10 – First Round

The venue for this tournament is Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, New Jersey, which has a capacity of roughly 12,000. This will be the fifth year that the conference holds its postseason event here and lately it’s been all about Temple. The Owls have captured the last three championships, with George Washington winning the inaugural event in 2007.

Since the A10 allows all 12 members to compete in the conference tournament, the first round will be played on the homecourt of the higher seed. Those four winners will then head to Atlantic City on Friday for the quarterfinals. The championship is set for Sunday at 1:00 p.m. EST, which will be televised on CBS. All of the previous action will be featured on CSTV.

Let’s look at Tuesday’s slate in order of rotation.

Tournament seeds listed in parenthesis

(10) La Salle at (7) St. Bonaventure

St. Bonaventure (16-13 SU, 16-12 ) opened as a five-point favorite over La Salle (14-17 SU, 11-14 ATS) and the number quickly dropped a half-point (4.5). The Bonnies have won and covered three straight over the Explorers, including the one meeting (82-61) this season at home. Both teams limp into this game with identical 2-3 records over their last five. St. Bonaventure has gone 10-5 SU and 8-7 ATS at home, which has included five straight wins. La Salle has produced a 5-7 SU and 6-5 ATS ledger. Temple awaits the winner of this contest.

(12) St. Joseph’s at (5) George Washington

George Washington (17-13 SU, 14-13 ATS) is listed as the highest A10 first round favorite (-7.5) and deservingly so. St. Joseph’s (9-21 SU, 13-14 ATS) did close the season by winning two of three but its road record (4-13 SU, 9-6 ATS) is less than stellar. The two teams met once this season, with GW capturing a 78-71 decision in Philadelphia on Jan. 8. The winner of this game will face Duquesne in the quarters on Friday.

(11) Saint Louis at (6) Rhode Island

Rhode Island (18-12 SU, 13-14 ATS) has been tabbed a 4 ½-point favorite, which seems a little low considering the opponent is St. Louis (12-18 SU, 9-17 ATS). That being said, gamblers should be aware that the Rams lost their final two regular season games, while the Billikens closed the season with a 4-1 record. St. Louis slows down the pace, which is why we’re looking at an ‘over/under’ spot of 124. In the lone meeting this year, Rhode Island nipped St. Louis 59-57 on the road in a low-scoring affair. Whoever wins will get the opportunity to face a very solid Richmond team next.

(9) Dayton at (8) Massachusetts

Tough game to handicap here, especially with Dayton (19-12 SU, 14-11 ATS) listed as a two-point road favorite over Massachusetts (15-14 SU, 12-10 ATS). The Flyers and Minutemen both closed the season with three-game losing skids. UMass has gone 11-7 SU and 8-5 ATS at home, while Dayton owns a 5-7 SU and 8-4 ATS mark on the road. In the one encounter this season, the Minutemen captured a 55-50 decision on Jan. 9 as a two-point ‘chalk.’ Total players are looking at low number (126) but make a note that Dayton has closed the season with five straight ‘under’ tickets. Top-seed Xavier will catch the winner of this affair on Friday.

MAC – First Round

Similar to the A10 tournament, the first round takes place on the home court of the higher seeds. Those eight teams will be cut into four, with the winners advancing to the quarterfinals on Thursday at Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, Ohio. The Bobcats of Ohio cut down the nets in Cleveland last year, but Akron has been the most consistent performer lately, reaching the championship in four straight seasons. Unfortunately, they only have one title to show for it.

The championship is scheduled for 6:00 p.m. EST on Saturday, which will be aired on ESPN2.

All of the below games are set for 7:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday and all of the home squads are laying heavy ‘chalk.’ Tournament seeds listed in parenthesis

(10) Northern Illinois at (7) Bowling Green

Despite it’s poor record, Bowling Green (13-18 SU, 13-15) has been installed as an eight-point favorite over Northern Illinois (9-20 SU, 14-10 ATS). If the Huskies win this game, it will be surprising since the team won’t have guard Xavier Silas (ankle) in the lineup. He’s missed the last three games and leads the team in scoring (22.3 PPG). NIU is just 3-12 SU on the road, but its 11-2 ATS mark is eye opening. Bowling Green nipped NIU 73-70 on the road in overtime on Feb. 2. Western Michigan will meet the winner in this game.

(11) Eastern Michigan at (6) Akron

Akron (19-12 SU, 13-12 ATS) has been made a healthy favorite over Eastern Michigan (9-21 SU, 11-16 ATS) and deservingly so. The Zips have dominated teams at home (14-2 SU, 6-5 ATS), while the Eagles have been a disaster on the road (1-13 SU, 5-9 ATS). EMU did stop Akron 60-56 on Feb. 2 but that contest was at home. On deck for the winner will be a quarterfinal matchup against Miami, Ohio.

(9) Central Michigan at (8) Buffalo

This matchup is supposed to be tight according to the seeds but the oddsmakers have still made Buffalo (17-12 SU, 14-11 ATS) a big favorite (12.5) over Central Michigan (10-20 SU, 8-18 ATS). Similar to Eastern Michigan, CMU has had a lot of trouble on the road (4-12 SU, 5-9 ATS). The Bulls have outscored opponents by an average of 14 PPG (76-62) at home this season, which has produced a 12-3 SU and 9-4 ATS record. As a double-digit favorite, Buffalo has gone 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS. The lone encounter between the pair this season was a 29-point (72-43) by the Bulls on Feb. 8. Top-seed of the MAC tournament, Kent State, will be ready for the winner on Thursday.

(12) Toledo at (5) Ohio

Do you lay 19 points or take them? Gamblers will ask themselves that question when Ohio (17-14 SU, 12-13 ATS) hosts Toledo (4-27 SU, 12-15 ATS) tonight. The Golden Rockets are arguably the worst squad in the country, winning just one conference game and closing the season with 13 straight losses. All but three of those setbacks were double digits and most would expect the same here. The one meeting between the two teams saw Ohio beat Toledo 71-58 on Feb. 9. The point-spread was 16 ½, which is close to tonight’s number. The winner will advance for a meeting against Ball State on Thursday.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-08-2011, 08:05 PM

Bubble Trouble

Get your dancing shoes out. With just two weeks remaining to the start of the 2011 NCAA Tournament, teams sitting on the outside looking in are now – more than ever – sweating their bubbles off.

For the legitimate teams who find themselves sitting ‘on the tournament bubble’, it’s now crunch time. And with it the pressure peaks. As Elvis said, “It’s now or never.”

With postseason conference tournaments now underway it’s truly last-gasp time for these teams to make one final impression on the NCAA tournament committee.

However, the truth of the matter is most teams’ fates are virtually sealed well before these conference tourneys tip off. Let me explain.

Outside of winning a conference tournament, the fact is unless teams own both a winning overall and winning conference record for the season the chance of being invited to the ‘dance’ is slim and remote. Teams who post 20 wins for the season often times find that unless they were a ‘double-winner’, the NCAA is likely to kick them to the curb. And for a lot of the right reasons, we might add.

The brain trust recognizes the fact that 20-win teams who ended the season non-winners in conference play likely picked up the bulk of the victories against inferior, non-conference competition and it just doesn’t cut the mustard in the panels’ eyes.

Witness the Miami Hurricanes last season. A 20-win team at season’s end last year (thanks to a pair of conference tourney victories) didn’t matter as they were left at the altar when the committee decided a 4-12 mark in ACC play was not a part of the Big Dance formula.

With this thought in mind, I present of group of 24 teams from lined major conferences that all have a mathematical shot at 20 wins this season, all of whom are all currently .500 or worse in conference play in games through Mar. 6. They include:

ACC: Maryland, Miami Fla, Virginia

Atlantic 10: Dayton, St. Bonaventure

Big East: Marquette

BIG 10: Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern

Big 12: Baylor, Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma State

CUSA: Central Florida, East Carolina, SMU

MAC: Buffalo

PAC 10: Washington State

SEC: Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee

WAC: Hawaii

Notice that any of the two-dozen teams outlined above could catch fire and win their conference tourney, thus automatically gaining a ticket to the Big Dance.

Their performance to date, however, says otherwise. Collectively, this unit has posted a sterling 248-78 SU and 116-96 ATS mark outside the conference this season. In conference play, though, they are just a combined 181-215 SU and 180-204-12 ATS.

Worse, as a favorite in conference games these wannabes are just 80-110-5 ATS this season, including 30-56-2 ATS when favored off a win. Put this same group of guys up as a favorite off a win against a foe seeking revenge that and they nearly drop off the radar screen, going 15-34 ATS this season, including 7-25 ATS if they covered the number by more than three points in its last game.

Thus, unless they suddenly change their ways – and I can't recall the last time a leopard changed its spots – its likely this group of fourteen will likely perform not-so-great under the pressure of laying points and having to win over the next two weeks.

The heat is on. Let’s watch and see…

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