Announcement

**StarDust Bum** · 02-25-2011, 02:10 PM

Magic favored by 7 over new-look Thunder

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (36-20)

at ORLANDO MAGIC (36-22)

Tip-off: Friday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Orlando -7, Total: 207

At least one of the Thunder’s two new big men is arriving just in time for a Friday night date with Dwight Howard.

In January, Howard gave the Thunder fits in Oklahoma City, going for 39 points and 18 rebounds, primarily against Nenad Krstic and Serge Ibaka. The Thunder escaped with a 125-124 victory. OKC will be without newly-acquired Kendrick Perkins (knee) on Friday night, but this time they’ll have the 6-foot-10, 250-pound Nazr Mohammed to bang with Howard. Mohammed was acquired from Charlotte for Morris Peterson and D.J. White just before the trade deadline ended on Thursday.

In his last two head-to-head meetings with Mohammed, Howard has been held in check. In January 2010, he had 20 rebounds but just 10 points on 4-of-11 shooting in 49 minutes. Last November, Howard had an ordinary 22-point, eight-rebound line. (Mohammed was out for Howard’s 27-point, 16-board explosion against Charlotte last March). In last year’s sweep of Charlotte, Howard averaged just 9.8 PPG and 9.3 RPG in that series.

A big night from Howard is especially important for the Magic considering the rest of the team’s recent woes. In nine February games, Jason Richardson (39.8% from the field) and Jameer Nelson (39.6%) have been laying bricks. The All-Star break didn’t seem to help, as Orlando suffered an embarrassing home loss Wednesday to a Sacramento team that was missing its best player (Tyreke Evans). In that game, Howard scored 31 points on 10-of-17 shooting and added 17 rebounds. The rest of the team combined to shoot 41.7% from the field and just 28.6% from three.

The Thunder will have to adjust to life without Jeff Green, who went to Boston in the Perkins trade. His absence could mean more minutes to rising young big man Serge Ibaka, who is averaging 9.2 RPG and 2.2 BPG in only 27.6 MPG over nine February games, including 10 points and 15 boards off the bench against San Antonio on Wednesday. They also added Nate Robinson (7.1 PPG in 17.9 MPG) to bring some scoring punch off the bench. The Thunder were solid in that game against the Spurs, their first since the All-Star break, but came up short in a 109-105 loss.

I’m a bit concerned about the Thunder’s ability to adjust to new personnel on the fly, but I’m more concerned with Orlando’s putrid play of late, so I’m picking Oklahoma City in this one. That pick gets some support in the FoxSheets:

OKLAHOMA CITY is 23-9 ATS (71.9%, +13.1 Units) in road games versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots over the last 2 seasons. The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 101.1, OPPONENT 100.8 - (Rating = 2*).

The Thunder are tied with Cleveland for the highest Over Pct. (60.7%) this season, and this highly-rated FoxSheets trend also sides with the Over for Friday’s games.

Play Over - Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (ORLANDO) - after a game where they failed to cover the spread, extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days. (30-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.1%, +22.3 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 02-25-2011, 02:53 PM

Coyotes, Blue Jackets in Friday NHL odds clash

The Phoenix Coyotes have won the last five versus the Blue Jackets.
The Phoenix Coyotes will look to extend their current winning streak over the Columbus Blue Jackets to six games when the two teams clash Friday night at Nationwide Arena. Game time is set for 4 p.m. (PT) and it will be broadcast locally on FOX Sports-Ohio.

Phoenix’s recent eight-game win streak came to a crashing halt in Wednesday night’s 8-3 meltdown against Tampa Bay as a 151 road underdog. This followed a 3-2 win over Nashville last Saturday as a 142 road underdog and an impressive 3-2 OT victory in Philadelphia as a 172 underdog.

The Coyotes are now in second-place in the Pacific Division with a total of 75 points; one point behind San Jose. They are 33-20-9 straight-up overall (33-29 against the spread) and in fourth-place in the Western Conference.

Phoenix has been extremely balanced on offense this season with nine different players scoring 10 or more goals. Defenseman Keith Yandle leads the team in total points with 52 and is ranked fifth in the NHL in assists with 43. Left winger Scottie Upshall, who leads the team with 16 goals, will be out of the lineup against Columbus. He is serving the second of a two-game suspension for a late hit in the game against the Flyers.

The Coyotes are ranked 11th in the league in scoring with a goals per game average of 2.82.

Ilya Bryzgalov has spent the majority of the time in goal this season and should be between the pipes for this one after sitting out the game against the Lightning. He has a goals-against-average of 2.55 and a .919 save percentage in 48 previous starts. The Coyotes are giving up an average of 2.81 goals a game, ranking them 17th overall.

Columbus has won four of its last five games including a 4-3 victory over Chicago last Friday as a 165 road underdog and a 4-0 shutout of Nashville as a 104 home favorite this past Tuesday. The Blue Jackets are now 30-23-6 SU (30-29 ATS) with a total of 66 points. They are currently in 12th place in the conference, but just four points out of a playoff spot in the extremely competitive West.

Right winger Rick Nash has been a force for Columbus this season with 29 goals and a team-high 55 points. The Blue Jackets have clearly missed the presence of center Derick Brassard, who is third in total points with 39. He will be out until early March with a hand injury. This just further taxes an offense that is averaging 2.70 goals a game.

Goalie Steve Mason should get the start against the Coyotes. He has started 38 of 59 games this season and has a 2.97 GGA and a save percentage of .905. Columbus is ranked 21st in the NHL in goals allowed; giving up an average of 2.92 a game. It has also struggled against the power play with a penalty-killing rate of just 80.9 percent.

Phoenix is 16-13 this season as a favorite and 17-15 as an underdog. The total has gone ‘over’ in 35 of 62 games or 56.5 percent of the time.

Columbus is 14-10 as a favorite and 16-19 as an underdog. The total has stayed ‘under’ in 32 of 59 games or 54.2 percent of the time.

Head-to-head, the Coyotes have won the last five games and are 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings. The total has stayed ‘under’ in six of these 10 games, but has gone ‘over’ in the last three.

Columbus should open as a very mild favorite, but could actually end up being be a home underdog. Either way, stick with the Coyotes in this one as they will find a way to quickly bounce back from Wednesday’s embarrassing loss.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-25-2011, 02:54 PM

Thunder and Magic in marquee NBA odds battle

The Northwest Division-leading Oklahoma City Thunder will attempt to persevere through a tough part of their schedule Friday night when they travel to Orlando for a battle with a Magic squad that is coming off an embarrassing home loss to Sacramento.

The overnight line for this 5:00 p.m. (PT) matchup has Orlando installed as a six-point home favorite, with the total set at 206.

This is the middle game in a trio of tough opponents for Oklahoma City. The Thunder played the Spurs prior to this game with the Magic, and must meet the defending champion Lakers in their next game.

Oklahoma City started the tough schedule Wednesday at San Antonio by suffering a heartbreaking 109-105 setback to the Spurs as a seven-point road underdog. The loss lowered Oklahoma City’s road ledger to 16-12, but the cover raised its road spread record to 14-14.

The combined 214 points soared above the 205 ½-point closing total, leaving the ‘over’ a league-leading 34-22 in the Thunder’s first 56 overall encounters.

Kevin Durant scored 30 points and Russell Westbrook added 25 for Oklahoma City in a losing effort. The Thunder rallied from an eight-point fourth-quarter deficit to take a two-point lead, but managed just one basket in the final five minutes.

Oklahoma City has now scored 100 points or more in eight of its last 10 games. That has helped solidify an offense that ranks fifth in the league with an average of 104.8 PPG. Much of that offensive success has occurred at the free-throw line where the Thunder are shooting a league-leading 82.9 percent.

Unfortunately, Scott Brooks’ troops have also allowed 100 points or more in six of their last 10 games. That slippage has lowered the Thunder’s defense to 20th at 102.3 PPG.

Orlando should not be a good mood after coming off Wednesday’s embarrassing 111-105 loss to the lowly Sacramento Kings as a 14 ½-point home favorite. The loss lowered Orlando’s home ledger to 21-9 SU and 15-15 ATS.

The combined 216 points catapulted ‘over’ the 206-point closing total, ending a string of seven straight ‘under’ games for the Magic. Nevertheless, the ‘under’ is still 31-25-2 in Orlando’s first 58 overall efforts and 17-12-1 in its first 30 home dates.

Dwight Howard led the Magic with 31 points and 17 rebounds, while Hedo Turkoglu scored 19 points and Jameer Nelson chipped in with 15. Orlando blew a seven-point fourth-quarter lead and was outscored in the final stanza, 32-21.

Unlike the Thunder, the Magic do most of their good work on the defensive end. Orlando ranks sixth in the league defensively by yielding an average of 94.2 points per game. The club is allowing the opposition to shoot just 44.2 percent from the field, which ranks fifth.

Orlando and Oklahoma City have met once this season (Jan. 13), with the Thunder outlasting the Magic as 1 ½-point home underdogs, 125-124. Though the combined 249 points soared ‘over’ the closing total, the ‘under’ is still 10-4 in the last 14 series meetings.

Durant scored 36 points, including the winning basket with eight seconds remaining in the game. Westbrook had 32 points, 10 rebounds and 13 assists. Nenad Krstic added 16 points and 11 rebounds for Oklahoma City, which shot 56.4 percent from the field.

Howard led the Magic with 39 points and 18 rebounds, while Jason Richardson and J.J. Reddick added 19 and 18 points respectively.

Oklahoma City out-rebounded the Magic, 42-36, and had a 24-22 edge in the assist column. Both teams attempted 37 free throws, with the Magic making 28 and the Thunder connecting on 30.

The Thunder will return home Sunday for a meeting against the defending champion Lakers. The Magic will continue their seven-game homestand with a Sunday match against the Charlotte Bobcats.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-25-2011, 02:56 PM

Friday Tips

February 24, 2011

The Friday night NBA card is loaded with 12 games as teams are gearing up for the stretch run of the season. The only club that hasn't taken the court since the All-Star Break is the Nets, who picked up All-Star point guard Deron Williams from the Jazz. New Jersey heads to the Alamo to take on the re-hot Spurs, while the Thunder and Magic hook up in Orlando. We'll start at Conseco Fieldhouse with Williams' former squad taking on the surging Pacers.

Jazz at Pacers - 7:05 PM EST

The Devin Harris era begins in Utah as the Jazz continue a three-game road swing in Indiana against the revitalized Pacers. The Jazz looks to stay alive in the Western Conference playoffs despite five consecutive losses following Wednesday's 118-99 setback at Dallas. To make matters worse, Utah is 5-13 ATS the last 18 games to fall to the ninth spot in the West.

The Pacers, meanwhile, are sitting in eighth place inside the Eastern Conference, even though Indiana is four games under .500 at 26-30. Since the arrival of Frank Vogel on the sidelines, the Pacers have won nine of 12, including Wednesday's last-season triumph over the Pistons. Indiana failed to cover as eight-point favorites in a 102-101 victory, the 12th straight game the Pacers have eclipsed the 100-point mark.

The Jazz knocked off the Pacers in Salt Lake City, 110-88 as 7 ½-point favorites on December 1. That was the third game of a four-game road swing for Indiana, who played with no rest after winning at Sacramento the night before. Not only is Utah still picking up the pieces of Williams and Jerry Sloan departing over the last month, the Jazz has failed to cover seven of their last 10 games as a road underdog.

Thunder at Magic - 8:05 PM EST

Oklahoma City wasn't expected to be a mover at Thursday's trade deadline, but the Thunder dealt Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic to the Celtics in exchange for Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson. The Northwest Division leaders make the trip to central Florida to battle an Orlando club that disappeared in the fourth quarter of a shocking 111-105 home setback to Sacramento as 14-point 'chalk.'

The Magic is just 11-10 since a nine-game winning streak from Christmas through the early part of January. The defensive lapse against a Kings' squad playing without leading scorer Tyreke Evans was beyond inexcusable, as Sacramento became the first team to bust 100 points against Orlando in the last eight games. The 111-spot allowed on Wednesday also was the first 'over' in the previous eight contests for Stan Van Gundy's team, while Orlando is 5-2 to the 'under' the last seven games at Amway Center.

The Thunder managed a cover for the first time in six tries against San Antonio in Wednesday's 109-105 loss as seven-point underdogs. OKC is riding a three-game ATS winning streak, but is 2-3 ATS without Green this season. The two victories came at Boston and Milwaukee as 'dogs, while Kevin Durant missed the games as well with a knee injury.

Nets at Spurs - 8:35 PM EST

San Antonio has won 19 straight games at the AT&T Center as the Spurs survived a late rally against the Thunder on Wednesday. The Nets start a Texas two-step with games at San Antonio on Friday and Houston on Saturday. There is plenty of anticipation for New Jersey with Williams, the former All-Star guard, making his debut in a Nets' uniform.

Williams should give a boost to a New Jersey squad averaging just 92.4 ppg, while the Nets have scored less than 100 points in seven of the last eight games. New Jersey isn't helping backers with a 2-6 ATS mark the previous eight contests, while going 6-2 to the 'under' in the last eight away games. In seven of those road games, the Nets have been limited to 94 points or less, including losses to the Celtics, Blazers, and Lakers.

The Spurs are a runaway train at 47-10, while being the top ATS club in the league at 34-21-2. San Antonio failed to cover against Oklahoma City, marking the second consecutive ATS loss after last Thursday's setback at Chicago. The Spurs haven't suffered back-to-back ATS defeats since January 9, when San Antonio didn't cash as 11 ½-point favorites in a three-point win over Minnesota. Gregg Popovich's team looks to beat the Nets for the ninth straight time at home, while beating New Jersey by double-digits six times in this span.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-25-2011, 02:58 PM

Big Ten Bubble Watch

February 24, 2011

The Big Ten has three highly ranked teams that will be high seeds in the NCAA tournament with Ohio State, Purdue, and Wisconsin. The Buckeyes certainly look like a good bet for a #1 seed while Purdue and Wisconsin could play into #3-5 range depending on how the season shakes out with the Boilermakers having a shot to climb even to a #2 spot with a very strong close to the season.

Early in the year it looked like the Big Ten would be one of the stronger conferences in the nation but the teams in the middle have failed to step up and Illinois, Michigan State, Minnesota, Penn State, and Michigan remain squarely on the bubble. It appears that a few of the teams in that group will get into the tournament given a soft and expanding bubble and a Big Ten representative could be a threat for an upset or two in early rounds even if the recent results have not offered great promise.

There is also a very good chance that one (or two) of the Big Ten bubble teams ends up in Dayton for the ‘First Four’ match-ups Tuesday or Wednesday as location and travel will likely be a factor in selecting those teams. We are yet to see the impact of teams being forced to play the early week games other than 16 seeds that will inevitably fall to top ranked teams. Intuitively the extra travel and short rest might be a disadvantage but in reality the winners from the First Four that emerge as #11 or #12 seeds could be very dangerous in the tournament.

Getting a first tournament game out of the way could be a big advantage for an underdog facing an untested #5 or #6 seed in the tournament and a First Four win could provide momentum and confidence to a lesser seed. In a normal 5/12 match-up there is also far more time to prepare for an opponent, and in this scenario the favored team will have very little time to practice specifically for the opponent as the match-up will not be decided until two days prior to the game, an edge that may go to the underdog. While #5 or a #6 seeds will be a quality teams, they are still flawed teams that likely have shown some inconsistency so an upset will be more than possible. Since the First Four teams will be given some consideration for location it is also very possible that the winner could have a location advantage against the favored seed. With that in consideration, any of these Big Ten teams could be a threat to still be playing on the weekend if they can sneak into the NCAA tournament field.

Illinois: Much more was expected from Illinois this season and after a strong non-conference start this looked like a team that might contend for a Big Ten title. Illinois started the season 10-1 with the lone loss coming in overtime against Texas. Wins over Maryland, North Carolina, and Gonzaga provided some serious heft to the resume but ultimately those teams all have had somewhat down seasons given the reputations of the programs. There were some troubling signs in December as Illinois barely snuck out wins against Oakland and Northern Colorado and then the upset to Illinois-Chicago occurred. A few days later, Illinois lost a close game to Missouri and it has been forgettable Big Ten season. The Illini were only able to win one of the three home games against the top three in the conference and have only two road wins counted in the 7-8 conference record. Even so, Illinois is bound to get into the tournament assuming they win home games remaining with Indiana and Iowa. Among fellow Big Ten teams they went 1-0 vs. Minnesota, 1-0 vs. Michigan, 1-1 vs. Penn State, and 1-1 against Michigan State so that should be an advantage in the selection process.

Michigan State: Imagine being a #5 seed and staring at Michigan State as your first round match-up. The Spartans are not the team that most projected, literally and figuratively as this has been one of the most disappointing teams in the nation and a few key players are now absent. Coach Izzo has a reputation for delivering tournament runs and this is still a talented team that can play with most teams. The Spartans appeared to be on the way out of tournament consideration but wins over Penn State, Illinois, and Minnesota in the last two weeks has this team in a favorable position. Michigan State has a huge game with Purdue in East Lansing this weekend that could put the Spartans in for sure barring a collapse in the final two games of the season. The Spartans have far less to rely than Illinois in the non-conference picture although there are no bad losses on the resume other than the blowout loss at Iowa. Against fellow Big Ten bubble teams Michigan State went 2-0 against Minnesota, 1-1 vs. Penn State, 1-1 vs. Illinois, and 0-1 vs. Michigan with a trip to Ann Arbor yet to come.

Minnesota: The Gophers were in the top 25 most of the season but the injury to Al Nolen has been devastating. The Gophers have been in a similar position each of the last two seasons and they have snuck into the tournament but things look less promising at this point. The Gophers have lost six of the last seven games including three home games and the remaining schedule is not an easy one. Wins over North Carolina, West Virginia, and Purdue keep the Gophers in the conversation and the lone non-conference loss to Virginia is something they can overcome. The key will be showing the committee that this team has some life without Nolen and in the recent games measures. If Minnesota wins out they will be 9-9 in conference play and that could be enough but 8-10 or worse probably leaves Minnesota NIT bound barring a decent run in the conference tournament. Going 0-2 against Michigan State, 0-1 against Illinois, and 0-1 against Penn State will not help the cause either. Minnesota did beat Michigan earlier in the year and has a chance to at least put itself above the Wolverines by sweeping the series this weekend and a redemption shot against Penn State will close the season. This is a talented team but even if the Gophers make the tournament, getting a different result than the last two years is unlikely in the current state.

Penn State: The Nittany Lions were dealt the toughest possible Big Ten schedule as the two teams they played just once are Iowa and Indiana. The one big bullet against Penn State is a loss to Maine at home just before the Big Ten season as every other loss has come against a quality team. There is nothing remarkable in the non-conference resume and Penn State will need to beat Ohio State next week to enter serious discussions of being an at-large team but this is a team that can be very competitive in many match-ups. If the Lions win out in conference play they will be able to make a strong case for inclusion but anything less will likely leave another unsatisfying season. Penn State has wins over Minnesota, Illinois, and Michigan State but all at home and the Lions lost road meetings with the Spartans and Illini. Penn State has only one road win all season long, something that will not be favorably viewed by the selection committee. It is easy to sympathize with Penn State as they likely would have finished with a winning conference record with a different schedule but there is just not enough there. The narrow losses at Purdue and at Ohio State will haunt this team as one of those wins would have completely changed the equation.

Michigan: Had the Wolverines held on for a narrow win against Wisconsin earlier this week the case would have been much easier to make but that last second bank shot may have sunk the resurgent season. Michigan played an incredibly tough non-conference schedule and there are no significantly bad losses on the resume. Wins over Harvard and Clemson are nice and close losses to Syracuse and Kansas should be worth something. Michigan started 1-6 in Big Ten play and that may be too great of a hurdle to overcome even though the Wolverines have won six of the last nine games. Michigan’s case is a little different as they have three road wins in conference play including wins at Michigan State and at Penn State and should they beat Minnesota on the road and then sweep Michigan State in the finale this will be a very interesting case for the selection committee. Michigan lost its only meeting with Illinois, split with Penn State, and is yet to finish its series with Minnesota and Michigan State.

The Big Ten tournament may be critical in sorting out these teams and while none of these teams has thoroughly distinguished itself in recent weeks, it is likely that two or even three of these teams are included in the NCAA tournament field, with a great chance of one of the teams being in the First Four. While there are flaws on each team these are battle-tested squads through a physical Big Ten season and this would not be a favorable draw for a fellow #11 seed in Dayton or for a waiting #5 seed in the next round.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-25-2011, 03:37 PM

MLB

Friday, February 25Game Score Status Pick Amount

Arizona 0 Top 1 San Francisco -126 500
San Francisco 0

-----------------------------------------------------------

NBA

Friday, February 25Game Score Status Pick Amount

Detroit - 7:00 PM ET Detroit +9.5 500
Philadelphia - Over 193 500

Phoenix - 7:00 PM ET Phoenix -3.5 500
Toronto - Under 213 500

Utah - 7:00 PM ET Indiana -6 500
Indiana - Over 207.5 500

Sacramento - 7:00 PM ET Charlotte -5 500
Charlotte - Over 202.5 500

New York - 7:30 PM ET Cleveland +7.5 500
Cleveland - Over 220 500

Washington - 7:30 PM ET Miami -14.5 500
Miami - Under 203 500

Oklahoma City - 8:00 PM ET Oklahoma City +6.5 500
Orlando - Over 205 500

New Orleans - 8:00 PM ET Minnesota +5 500
Minnesota - Under 194.5 500

New Jersey - 8:30 PM ET New Jersey +11 500
San Antonio - Under 193 500

Atlanta - 10:30 PM ET Golden State -3 500
Golden State - Over 201.5 500

Denver - 10:30 PM ET Denver +6.5 500
Portland - Under 203 500

L.A. Clippers - 10:30 PM ET L.A. Clippers +10.5 500
L.A. Lakers - Over 194 500

------------------------------------------------------------

NHL

Friday, February 25Game Score Status Pick Amount

NY Rangers - 7:00 PM ET NY Rangers +158 500
Washington - Under 5.5 500

Pittsburgh - 7:00 PM ET Pittsburgh +135 500
Carolina - Under 5.5 500

Phoenix - 7:00 PM ET Columbus -116 500
Columbus - Over 5.5 500

Ottawa - 7:30 PM ET Buffalo -206 500
Buffalo - Under 5.5 500

Florida - 7:30 PM ET Florida +119 500
Atlanta - Under 5.5 500

New Jersey - 7:30 PM ET New Jersey +113 500
Tampa Bay - Over 5.5 500

San Jose - 9:00 PM ET San Jose -103 500
Calgary - Under 5.5 500

St. Louis - 9:00 PM ET Edmonton -110 500
Edmonton - Over 5.5 500

Minnesota - 10:00 PM ET Minnesota +129 500
Anaheim - Over 5.5 500

-----------------------------------------------------------

NCAAB

Friday, February 25Game Score Status Pick Amount

Columbia - 7:00 PM ET Columbia +6 500
Pennsylvania - Under 133 500

Harvard - 7:00 PM ET Harvard -8 500
Brown - Over 142.5 500

Dartmouth - 7:00 PM ET Yale -12.5 500
Yale - Over 127.5 500

Siena - 7:00 PM ET Fairfield -9 500
Fairfield - Over 132 500

Loyola-Maryland - 7:00 PM ET Loyola-Maryland -3.5 500
Niagara - Under 132 500

Cornell - 7:00 PM ET Princeton -10 500
Princeton - Under 131.5 500

Detroit - 7:00 PM ET Wright St. -6 500
Wright St. - Over 138 500

Manhattan - 7:00 PM ET Canisius -13 500
Canisius - Under 128.5 500

Rider - 7:30 PM ET Rider -10.5 500
Marist - Over 139 500

Iona - 9:00 PM ET Iona -3 500
St. Peter's - Over 134 500

Announcement

The Bum's Friday's Best Bets NBA-NHL-NCAAB!!

The Bum's Friday's Best Bets NBA-NHL-NCAAB!!

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment