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**StarDust Bum** · 02-22-2011, 11:57 PM

Baylor and Missouri in Big 12 betting clash

Baylor as won three of the last five meetings against the Missouri Tigers.
The Baylor Bears will try and get off the bubble with a quality win over the Missouri Tigers in this Big 12 matchup on Wednesday night. Tip-off from Mizzou Arena in Columbia, MO. is set for 6 p.m. (PT) and the game will be broadcast nationally on ESPN2.

Baylor’s season continues to spike up and down with a 5-6 straight-up record over its last 11 games. The Bears are coming off a 78-69 loss to Texas Tech last Saturday as a 12 ½-point home favorite that may have done some serious damage to their postseason NCAA Tournament hopes. Baylor is currently 17-9 SU overall and 6-12 against the spread, and in the middle of the Big 12 pack at 6-6 SU.

Senior guard LaceDarius Dunn leads the team in scoring with an average of 20.8 points a game. Freshman forward-center Perry Jones is averaging 14.3 points and seven rebounds and junior forward Anthony Jones has 8.5 points a game and 5.5 rebounds. Another junior, Quincy Acy has been a key contributor off the bench with 12.4 points and 7.4 rebounds a game.

The Bears are shooting 47.7 percent from the field and averaging 71 points a game. They are hitting 35.6 percent of their shots from three-point range but converting on just 69.4 percent of their attempts from the foul-line. Baylor is ranked 134th in the nation in rebounds with an average of 35.7 a game.

Missouri is back on track in the Big 12 with three straight conference wins after losing three of four games earlier this month. This past Saturday, it posted a 76-70 victory over Iowa State as a 4 ½-point road favorite after knocking-off Texas Tech 92-84 as a 16 ½-point home favorite on Feb.15. The Tigers are now 21-6 SU overall but just 11-11 ATS. They are in fourth-place in the conference with a record of 7-5 SU.

This team has been well balanced on offense with five players scoring in double-figures led by junior guard Marcus Denmon’s 16.6 points a game. Junior forward Ricardo Ratliffe is averaging 11.4 points and a team-high 6.4 rebounds a game, while sophomore guard Michael Dixon leads the team in assists with 3.8 a game and is averaging 10.4 points.

The Tigers have solid shooting numbers across the board; hitting 47.3 percent of their attempts from the field, 37.5 percent from three-point range, and 72.7 percent from the foul-line. They are ranked fifth in the nation in scoring with an average of 83.5 points a game and are pulling down close to 37 rebounds as well.

Baylor is 2-2 ATS in its last four games on the road and 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in four of its last five games.

Missouri is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games and 3-2 ATS in its last five games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in four of its last six games.

Head-to-head, the Bears have won three of the last five games SU, but the Tigers are 3-0 ATS in the last three. The total has stayed ‘under’ in the last two games including Baylor’s 64-62 victory last season as a four-point home favorite.

Missouri should open as a six- to seven-point favorite this time around and have little trouble covering at home against a Bears’ team that has been struggling with consistency over the past few weeks.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-22-2011, 11:58 PM

NBA Odds: Wall and Wizards host Sixers

The road team has covered six of the last nine between the Wizards and Sixers.
The Philadelphia 76ers and Washington Wizards are finally back after their long hiatus from NBA betting action due to the All-Star break, and they'll be facing off against one another at Wells Fargo Arena.

Wednesday's tip is set for 4:00 p.m. (PT) with Comcast providing local television coverage.

The Wizards are still working on that brutal 1-26 road mark this season, easily the worst in the league. However, if there is anything good for NBA wagering warriors to be proud of, it is that the wicked losing skid, which ended as the second longest in league history, is at least now gone.

This will be Washington's first road game of the second half of the season, but it does have to contend with the Indiana Pacers at home first on Tuesday night.

The sort of mix-and-match team that is the Wizards is starting to at least look like a club that is coming together. JaVale McGee showcased his skills in the Slam Dunk Contest during All-Star Weekend, while John Wall started for the rookies in the T-Mobile Rookie Challenge. Wall is rounding into his own in his rookie year, accounting for 15.0 PPG and 8.9 APG.

Andray Blatche and Nick Young are the two big-time scorers that are always seemingly forgotten when talking about Washington. The two are combining for 33.4 PPG this season and are Nos. 1 and 2 on the team in scoring. Rashard Lewis, acquired from the Orlando Magic just before Christmas, has only averaged 13.2 PPG and 6.7 RPG since coming over to our nation's capitol.

The headline in the Philadelphia Inquirer sort of said it all on Tuesday: "Sixers on the brink of winning record for first time in forever." Isn't that the truth? Philly is two games under .500 now, and it will be heavily favored in each of its next three against Washington and the Detroit Pistons at home, and the Cleveland Cavaliers on the road.

The team enters this stretch in the post-All Star Break having won 10 out of 14 SU and 11 out of 16 on the NBA odds.

Thoughts of trading Andre Iguodala, who had a triple-double in the final game before the All Star Break are still out there, but are highly unlikely. Iguodala is averaging 14.2 PPG this year, but he is largely underachieving. Elton Brand is doing well though, and he is staying healthy, something that hasn't been easy for him in his career. Brand is averaging 15.2 PPG and 8.7 RPG.

Washington is just 2-7-1 ATS over the course of the last 10 meetings in this series, but the road team is 6-2-1 ATS over the course of the last nine. The Sixers play well on Hump Day for whatever reason, going 8-1 ATS in their last nine in the middle of the work week, while the Wiz are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 against the Atlantic Division.

Philly has covered all three meetings with the Wizards this season, but Washington holds the 2-1 SU lead. The first two meetings came in November, and both just barely went to the Wizards in OT. They came up on top by margins of 116-115 and 116-114.

However, in January, the 76ers got their revenge, scoring a 109-97 victory in relatively dominant fashion here at Wells Fargo Arena.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-22-2011, 11:59 PM

NCAA Odds: Top-ranked Duke hosts Temple

Duke has won the last eight meetings with Temple, but split 4-4 ATS.
The Duke Blue Devils are back on top of the basketball world as they host the Temple Owls on Wednesday in a rare late February non-conference affair.

Top-ranked Duke (25-2 straight-up, 15-11 against the spread) made a leap from No. 5 in the rankings after major carnage that saw Kansas, Ohio State, Texas and Pittsburgh lose last week.

Meanwhile, Coach Mike Krzyzewski’s squad is humming along with a six-game winning streak (5-1 ATS). The only failure to ‘cover’ was a 79-73 comeback win over North Carolina as 10 ½-point home favorites on Feb 9.

Duke’s last contest came was Sunday versus Georgia Tech. Nolan Smith kept up his charge for National Player of the Year with 28 points, while Kyle Singler (15 points) continued to play Robin to Smith’s Batman. The 79-57 margin ‘covered’ the large 18 ½-point spread.

The 136 combined points scored went ‘under’ the 146-point total. The ‘under’ is 5-1 in Duke’s last six games with the defense turning up the screws (59.3 PPG).

The better defensive effort is due to its last non-conference game, a 93-78 loss as eight point ‘chalk’ at St. John’s on January 30th. The Red Storm are proving a lot of doubters wrong, but there was no excuse for Duke to allow them to shoot 58.2 percent from the field.

Coach K sent a message to his squad after that game, and the results have been shown heading into Wednesday.

Duke is 15-0 SU at home this year (7-7 ATS) and has won 34 straight there, last losing to North Carolina back in February 2009.

The Owls (21-5 SU, 15-11 ATS) are on the other end of the top-25 polls, currently at No. 24. They’re in second place in the Atlantic 10 at 11-2 SU, right behind Xavier (11-1 SU) and ahead of Richmond (10-3 SU).

Temple ranks 21st in the nation in scoring defense (61 PPG). It stymied the opposition in its last two, home wins over Richmond (73-53) and St. Joseph’s (66-52). The team allows just 58.5 PPG at home versus 65.8 PPG in true road games.

There’s a lot of injury news for this game. Big man Micheal Eric (7.1 PPG, 5.9 RPG) missed the last two games and is now out for the year (knee). Forward Scootie Randall (11.6 PPG, 5.1 RPG) missed last game (foot) and is doubtful Wednesday.

The starting lineup last game against St. Joseph had 6-foot-9 Lavoy Allen and 6-foot-6 Rahlir Jefferson up front. They played 38 and 31 minutes respectively with no big men in reserve. That may work in the Atlantic 10, but could be costly against a Duke team which can throw out some size.

Temple will need a big game from guards Ramone Moore and Juan Fernandez. Moore (15.4 PPG) leads the team in scoring and is averaging 22.3 PPG the last four games. The point guard Fernandez (10.2 PPG) has struggled from the field this season (36.1 percent), but has played much better the last two games (16 PPG, 70.6 percent shooting).

The Blue Devils are 8-0 SU in their last eight games against the Owls, but just 4-4 ATS. They’re 4-0 ATS in their last four against the Atlantic 10.

Both teams have gone ‘over’ the total recently in non-conference games. Duke is 4-0 in the last four and Temple 5-0-1 in the last six.

Duke’s only injury is fab freshman Kyrie Irving (toe), who has been out since early December. Smith has adapted well at the point and Irving is almost definitely out for the year.

ESPN2 will have the 4 p.m. (PT) tip-off from famed Cameron Indoor Stadium.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-23-2011, 12:00 AM

NBA Odds: Carmelo Anthony, Knicks host Bucks

Carmelo Anthony makes his Knicks debut Wednesday versus the Bucks.
The New York Knicks host the Milwaukee Bucks on Wednesday night in what should be the much anticipated debut of superstar Carmelo Anthony. This is a back-to-back game for Milwaukee.

The Knicks (28-26 straight-up, 33-19-2 against the spread) have shown solid improvement after going 29-53 SU last season and missing the playoffs. They added free agent big man Amare Stoudemire in the offseason, but wanted another big piece.

That left the door open for Anthony. The native New Yorker led Syracuse to a national title and his contract was expiring at the end of the season. He made it clear to Denver execs that he would only sign an extension with the Knicks and the trade was finally consummated Monday night.

The final tally had Denver receiving Timofey Mozgov, Raymond Felton, Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, draft picks and cash. Anthony, Chauncey Billups, Shelden Williams, Anthony Carter and Renaldo Balkman came in return. New York also sent forward Anthony Randolph to Minnesota for swingman Corey Brewer.

Anthony and the rest of the new acquisitions should make their debut on Wednesday. That’s pending the passing of physicals and final league approval. Ticket prices are already soaring at resellers.

The new starting lineup should have Billups at point guard replacing Felton. Landry Fields stays at shooting guard. Anthony and Stoudemire form the potent ‘three and four’ combination that should put up around 50 PPG. Ronny Turiaf should start at center with Mozgov gone (try to say that five times fast).

New York is second in the league in scoring (106.2 PPG) and second-worst in defense (105.8 PPG). Coach Mike D’Antoni doesn’t require much ‘D’ normally in his up-tempo system and Anthony never helps much on that end of the court anyhow.

Wednesday’s game could have the feel of an All-Star Game with New York having just a few plays with the new guys and fast-breaking at every opportunity. There will also be several celebrities in the crowd, giving it an electric feel.

The Bucks (21-34 SU, 25-28-2 ATS) are in 10th place in the Eastern Conference, remarkably just 3.5 games behind Indiana (24-30 SU) for the final playoff spot. Ninth-place Charlotte (24-32 SU) is one game back of Indiana.

The Bucks will host Minnesota on Tuesday (result still pending) before traveling for Wednesday night’s game. They limped into the All-Star break at 2-8 SU (4-6 ATS) in their last 10 games.

Milwaukee has a mishmash of a roster, with no All-Stars and guard Brandon Jennings the leading scorer at 15.6 PPG. Jennings, center Andrew Bogut (12.9 PPG, 11.5 RPG) and shooting guard John Salmons (13.7 PPG) are the three main guys.

Injuries have played a big part in the inconsistent lineups. Not one player has played every game, with Jennings (19 games missed) and forward Carlos Delfino (32 games missed) two of the biggest losses. That doesn’t even include shooting guard Michael Redd (knee), who hasn’t played yet this year.

The team should have everyone healthy Wednesday besides Redd and reserve power forward Drew Gooden (foot).

Coach Scott Skiles desperately needs to set a rotation down the stretch. That should help the offensive woes some. The team is last in the league in both scoring (91.3 PPG) and field goal shooting (42.4 percent).

The ‘under’ is 8-1 in Milwaukee last nine games and 34-21 on the year.

Milwaukee is 8-21 SU and 14-15 ATS on the road. However, it’s 20-4-2 ATS in its last 26 games against the Atlantic Division.

The Bucks are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Knicks and 4-0 ATS in the last four in the Big Apple. However, it’s hard to extrapolate any handicapping information involving the Knicks with their total roster makeover.

Tip-off from historic Madison Square Garden will be 4:30 p.m. (PT).

**StarDust Bum** · 02-23-2011, 12:01 AM

Penguins host Sharks in NHL odds battle

The ’under’ is 5-0-1 the last six times the Sharks and Penguins have met.
The San Jose Sharks have utilized a stingy defense to win 12 of their last 15 games, which has helped them move within one point of first-place Phoenix in the Pacific Division. The Sharks will attempt to take over the top spot Wednesday when they travel to Pittsburgh to play the slumping Penguins.

The Verizon network will televise the contest from Pittsburgh’s Consol Energy Center starting at 4:30 p.m. (PT).

This will be the second half of a back-to-back situation for the Sharks, as they played Tuesday at Detroit against the Red Wings. But that scenario hasn’t seemed to bother the Sharks this season, evidenced by their 5-4 ledger in those second games.

Playing on enemy ice also doesn’t seem to worry San Jose, as the club has a better record on the road (18-11-2-1) than it does at home (15-10-2-1).

Prior to Tuesday’s contest at Detroit, the Sharks registered a 4-0 victory on Saturday against the Colorado Avs as hefty 245 home favorites. Not only was it the Sharks’ third shutout victory in their last eight games, but they have now allowed three goals or less in 15 consecutive efforts.

The stingy streak has lowered San Jose’s goals-against average to 2.5 per game, which ranks 10th in the NHL.

The combined four goals against the Avs dipped below the 5 ½-goal closing total, leaving the ‘under’ 7-0-1 in the Sharks’ last eight outings and 17-14 in their first 31 road dates.

Devin Setoguchi notched his first career hat trick in the victory against the Avs, while Antti Niemi recorded his fifth shutout this year and third in his last eight starts. Niemi, signed away from the defending Cup champion Blackhawks as a free agent in the offseason, is now 20-15-1-2 with a 2.43 GAA and .919 save percentage.

Though the Sharks rank just 16th on offense (2.7 GPG), their average of 33.8 shots on goal per contest ranks first. They are fourth on the power play with a 22.8 percent success rate.

Pittsburgh, playing its third game in four nights, has now dropped four of its last five contests. That includes Monday’s 1-0 loss against the Washington Capitals as a 120 home underdog.

The Penguins fired 39 shots at the Washington net, but couldn’t get one past Capitals goalie Michal Neuvirth. Pittsburgh has now scored three goals or less in 10 straight games to see its offense slip to ninth in the league at 2.9 GPG.

Pittsburgh took some steps to bolster that offense by acquiring left winger James Neal from Dallas a few hours before the Washington game. Neal has scored 21 goals this season, which would be a significant boost for a Pittsburgh active roster that currently does not have anyone with more than 12 goals.

The Penguins, as has been the case for a while now, were missing nine injured players, headlined by world-class centers Sidney Crosby (concussion) and Evgeni Malkin (knee surgery).

The game against Washington ducked well below the NHL odds, which left the ‘under’ 8-0 in Pittsburgh’s last eight home games and 8-2 in its last 10 overall outings. The ‘under’ is now 38-21-2 in the club’s first 51 endeavors.

The shutout loss lowered Pittsburgh’s home ledger to 20-11-1-0, as the squad is outscoring the opposition at Consol Energy Center by an average of 2.9 to 2.3.

Pittsburgh continues to own the league’s top penalty killing unit with an 87.6 percent success rate. That’s a good thing considering the squad also leads the league in going to the sin bin with 1,141 penalty minutes.

This will be the first meeting of the season between the Sharks and Pens. The Sharks are a nifty 12-2-1 in the last 15 series matchups, with the ‘under’ going 5-0-1 in the last six meetings.

San Jose concludes its three-game road trip (the last against teams in the Eastern Time zone) by traveling to Calgary for a Friday contest against the Flames. Pittsburgh begins a five-game road excursion Friday at Carolina against the Hurricanes.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-23-2011, 03:09 PM

Duke seeks 35th straight home win hosting Temple

TEMPLE OWLS (21-5)

at DUKE BLUE DEVILS (25-2)

Tip-off: Wednesday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Duke -14, Total: 138

You can’t accuse Temple head coach Fran Dunphy of lacking fortitude. Like his predecessor John Chaney, Dunphy schedules tough, takes on all comers, and does not care when or where he chooses to play that opponent. At a time when most other teams are winding down their regular-season schedules with several days in between games and eyeing the start of conference tournaments, Temple chooses this time to squeeze in one last out-of-conference yawner. Not just against any team, but against Duke. Safe to say that when this game was scheduled no one knew that Duke would be defending national champions, AND ranked #1 in the country, but that’s the tricky part about some advance scheduling, like the game show “Let’s Make A Deal”, you never know what will be behind door number three.

For No. 24 Temple, it’s the best of times and the worst of times. The team has won eight straight, and are just a half game back of Xavier for the top spot in the Atlantic-10 standings. With 21 wins, and non-conference victories over Georgetown, Maryland, Georgia, plus an RPI of 31, their tournament resume is strong. That’s the best of times part, the worst part, the Owls are approaching their toughest game of the season in failing health. Six-foot-11 junior forward Micheal Eric (7.1 PPG, 5.9 RPG) who had been starting, is out for the season after fracturing his patella in practice last week. Second leading scorer Scootie Randall (11.6 PPG, 5.1 RPG) missed Sunday’s 66-52 victory over Saint Joseph’s with a bad foot. His status for the Duke game was termed “unlikely” by the coach. “I don’t know if he’s gonna be able to play again [this season],” Dunphy said. “It would be great if he could, but I do not know.”

Junior point guard Juan Fernandez (10.2 PPG, 4.0 APG) has also missed four games this season with knee trouble. At least Temple will have a healthy Ramone Moore (15.4 PPG), the team’s leading scorer, on the court against the Blue Devils. Senior center Lavoy Allen (10.7 PPG, 7.2 RPG) just became the school’s all-time leading rebounder on Sunday, and will need to display that form in Durham against a Duke team that averages over 38 boards a game. Sophomore Rahlir Jefferson and freshman Aaron Brown replaced Eric and Randall in the starting lineup Sunday, making the Owls a much smaller team to bang with underneath.

The Blue Devils have won 10 of 11, and are ranked #1 again after a week where the top four teams in the country all went down to defeat on the road. Duke is coming off of a dominating 79-57 victory over Georgia Tech Sunday. National POY candidate Nolan Smith was splendid again, scoring 28 points, with seven rebounds and four assists. Kyle Singler added 15 points. The Blue Devils displayed the type of defense that has kept them undefeated at home this year, holding the Yellow Jackets to 33% shooting from the floor, and 20% from beyond the arc. Duke scored 51 points in the game’s final 23 minutes to break open a game that had been tied at 28, as they rolled to its 34th straight home victory, the longest active streak in the nation. The Blue Devils have outscored their opponents by 23.2 PPG in Durham this season, out-shooting them 47% to 39%.

Duke has won 10 of the last 11 meetings between the two schools. In 2008 the Blue Devils defeated Dunphy and Temple 74-64 at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia. Temple’s last game in Durham was in 2007, a 73-55 Duke victory. Despite that blowout, the Owls are 3-1 ATS in their past four meetings. This season, Duke is just 7-7 ATS at home, but is 8-5 ATS against non-conference opponents and also 5-1 ATS in the month of February. Temple is 9-4 ATS when it plays outside the Atlantic-10 and 5-3 ATS in road games, but just 3-3 ATS as an underdog and 4-7 ATS in its past 11 games overall. These two FoxSheets trends expect Duke to win and cover.

Play Against - Road teams as an underdog or pick (TEMPLE) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 8+ PPG, after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more. (99-56 over the last 5 seasons.) (63.9%, +37.4 units. Rating = 2*).

DUKE is 78-49 ATS (61.4%, +24.1 Units) in home games after a win by 10 points or more since 1997. The average score was DUKE 87.0, OPPONENT 63.5 - (Rating = 1*).

The FoxSheets also predict the game will finish Over the total.

DUKE is 28-10 OVER (73.7%, +17.0 Units) in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%) since 1997. The average score was DUKE 86.6, OPPONENT 72.1 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 02-23-2011, 03:10 PM

Notre Dame looks for 6th straight road win over Providence

NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (21-5, 10-4 in Big East)

at PROVIDENCE FRIARS (14-13, 3-11 in Big East)

Tip-off: Wednesday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Notre Dame -3.5

While the college basketball world was abuzz with the losing epidemic that took down the nation’s top four teams last week, the storyline actually was not all that different for the top four teams in the Big East conference, where first-place Pittsburgh and second-place Notre Dame both fell on Saturday afternoon, while third-place Georgetown and fourth-place Louisville each fell on the same night last Wednesday. As the upsets mount, it seems like everywhere you look nationally or in certain conferences the back of the pack have the front of the pack within eyeshot, and vice versa. With that in mind, second-place Notre Dame (a.k.a. the front of the pack) takes on 14th-place Providence (the back of the pack) Wednesday night at the Dunkin Donuts Center. Notre Dame (21-5, 10-4) is playing for positioning and seeding, as in Big East and NCAA Tournament seeding. Providence (14 -13, 3-11) is playing for pride, an above .500 record, and top spoiler status.

No. 9 Notre Dame is attempting to rebound from its first loss in about a month, a 72-58 whipping at the hands of West Virginia Saturday in Morgantown. West Virginia got 24 points from Darryl Bryant, and used a 19-8 run at the start of the second half to break the game wide open. Despite outrebounding the Mountaineers and only committing 10 turnovers, the Irish shot a miserable 35% from the floor. Top scorer and Big East POY candidate Ben Hansbrough (17.4 PPG) was just 7-for-18 from the floor, while second leading scorer Tim Abromaitis (14.1 PPG, 6.3 RPG) was just 2-for-9 from the floor with nine points in 34 minutes of play. Abromaitis’ up-and-down play has been a bit of a enigma for coach Mike Brey, as he has witnessed his second leading scorer hit double figures in only four of the past seven games. Still the Irish bring plenty of poise to the floor every game with five senior starters, four of whom average double figures in points. The Irish have won seven straight overall against Providence, and five in a row on the road in the series (both SU and ATS) since the Friars' last home win Feb. 28, 1998.

If middle sister Jan Brady were a fan of Providence, then the story of the Friars season would be summed up in three simple words: Marshon, Marshon, Marshon! Marshon Brooks leads the Big East in scoring at 24.4 PPG, yet in two career games against the Irish he is only averaging 10.0 PPG on 34.5% shooting. Wednesday night could be a different story, as Brooks has consistently scored well against all Big East competition. Brooks is a unique player who has improved his scoring and rebounding averages in every single year he has been at Providence. His senior scoring averages are 10 points higher (24.4 to 14.2) than his junior season output. Mike Brey knows full well that despite the Friars record, stopping the league’s leading scorer will be no cakewalk. "The guy just has go-off ability when you see the 30s and the 38s, that's certainly a concern," Brey said. "That's gotta be some matchups. I am not sure who will start on him, but it's gotta be a real team awareness on a guy like this."

Despite losing its last game to Cincinnati, 93-81 in overtime, Providence has shown an ability for competing and defeating ranked teams in its home arena, as Louisville and Villanova found out the hard way back in January. If Keno Davis’ squad can pull off a third upset Wednesday night, it would make his team’s season, as well as effectively end any chance Notre Dame has of catching first-place Pittsburgh.

The Irish have been great in the favorite role this year, sporting a 10-4 ATS mark, including 2-0 as a road favorite. The Friars are 6-5 ATS as an underdog (3-1 as home dog), but are just 5-9 ATS in Big East play, which includes a 1-5 ATS mark in their past six games. These two FoxSheets trends support Notre Dame to win and cover on Wednesday night.

Play On - Road teams as an favorite or pick (NOTRE DAME) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival against opponent off a home loss by 10 points or more.(37-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (74%, +22.7 units. Rating = 2*).

Play Against - Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PROVIDENCE) - after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread against opponent after having covered 2 of their last 3 against the spread. (120-70 over the last 5 seasons.) (63.2%, +43 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 02-23-2011, 03:11 PM

Baylor looks for first win at Missouri since 1948

BAYLOR BEARS (17-9, 6-6 in Big 12)

at MISSOURI TIGERS (21-6, 7-5 in Big East)

Tip-off: Wednesday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Missouri -8, Total: 148

The 20th-ranked Missouri Tigers will look to win their 17th straight home game on Wednesday night against a Baylor team currently on the outside looking in at the big dance. With an RPI of 79 and just 1-4 against top-50 RPI opponents, Baylor needs to win the Big 12 Tournament to go dancing. With a 6-12 record ATS, the Bears have one of the worst betting records in the nation. However, four of those wins, including their last two, have come away from home where they are 4-5 ATS this season. They are also 2-1 as a road underdog. LaceDarius Dunn leads the Big 12 in scoring at 20.8 PPG, but has struggled in his career against Missouri. In four games against the Tigers, Dunn is averaging just 14.3 PPG and they are the only Big 12 team against which he has not scored 20 points. Dunn scored 21 in Baylor’s 78-69 home loss to Texas Tech on Saturday, and needs 40 points to replace Andre Emmett atop the all-time Big 12 scoring list. Baylor’s 6-foot-11 Perry Jones leads all Big 12 freshmen in scoring (14.3 PPG) and field-goal percentage (57.3%), while junior Quincy Acy is among the conference leaders with 7.5 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per game.

With 21 wins, a RPI of 30 and four wins against top-50 RPI opponents, the Tigers are basically a lock for the NCAA Tournament. The Tigers are 11-11 ATS this season, including a 7-5 record ATS at home where they had won four straight ATS before defeating Texas Tech by eight in a game they were giving 17 points in. Only Kansas is averaging more than the Tigers 83.5 PPG in the Big 12, which ranks just behind the Jayhawks for fifth-best in the nation. Marcus Denmon led the Tigers with 25 points in the 76-70 victory at Iowa State on Saturday, which marked their first conference road win this season and their first win away from home since defeating Illinois in St. Louis in December. After averaging just 13.1 PPG on 46% FG in his previous eight games, Denmon has averaged 22.5 PPG on 67% FG in his past two games.

Missouri has dominated opponents at home, winning games by an average of 22.8 PPG, which is a very bad sign for the Bears who have not won at Columbia since 1948, losing their last nine trips there. Mizzou is also a rough matchup for Baylor as the Bears are one of the worst teams in the nation taking care of the ball, averaging 15.9 turnovers per game. Only five teams in the nation force more TO than the Tigers, whose opponents are averaging 18.2 per game. Missouri has won seven of their last nine when giving at least eight points and they have won three straight ATS against the Bears. The FoxSheets provide another reason to side with Missouri to win and cover:

Play Against - Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BAYLOR) - off a loss to a conference rival as a favorite of 6 points or more against opponent off a win against a conference rival. (142-87 since 1997.) (62%, +46.3 units. Rating = 2*).

The past three meetings in the series have finished Under the total and this highly-rated FoxSheets trend expects another Under on Wednesday.

Play Under - Road teams against the total (BAYLOR) - excellent shooting team (>=47.5%) against an average defensive team (42.5-45%) after 15+ games, average ball handling team (14.5-17.5 TO) vs. a good pressure defense (>=17.5 TO) after 15+ games.(28-7 since 1997.) (80%, +20.3 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 02-23-2011, 03:12 PM

Purdue aims for 5th straight win over rival Indiana

PURDUE BOILERMAKERS (22-5, 11-3 in Big Ten)

at INDIANA HOOSIERS (12-15, 3-11 in Big Ten)

Tip-off: Wednesday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Purdue -5.5, Total: 137

A classic Big Ten rivalry continues on Wednesday in Indiana when the eighth-ranked Purdue Boilermakers travel to Assembly Hall to take on the Hoosiers. Purdue will be looking to accomplish something it hasn’t done since the early 1970s, which is defeat Indiana for a fifth consecutive time.

The Boilermakers are on a roll and have their ticket to the NCAA Tournament dance punched. They are coming off a very successful week that saw them defeat two top-10 teams in knocking off then-#10 Wisconsin last Wednesday, and then-#2 Ohio State on Sunday. With an RPI of 7 and strength of schedule of 15, Purdue finds itself one game behind Ohio State for first in the Big Ten. At 15-7, Purdue has one of the best records in the nation ATS this season. They Boilers won their last three ATS and their last four SU. However, they are just 3-4 ATS and SU on the road in conference play. E’Twaun Moore had a career-high 38 points on 7-of-10 shooting from behind the arc in Purdue’s 76-63 win over the Buckeyes. Moore also lit up the Hoosiers for 25 points in the Boilermakers win over Indiana on February 8. He is averaging 23.4 PPG over his past five games. JaJuan Johnson scored just 13 points against Ohio State, but he averaged 22.8 PPG in his previous 10 games and ranks second in the Big Ten in scoring at 20.4 PPG. He also leads the Big Ten in blocks, averaging 2.3 BPG.

Not much has gone right for the once-proud Hoosiers, who are hoping to avoid their third straight season of at least 20 losses. They enter play a half-game ahead of Iowa for last in the Big Ten and have lost four straight and 13 of 16 since starting the season 9-2. They are 10-10 ATS this season, but have lost two straight and are 3-4 both ATS and SU at home in Big Ten play. The Hoosiers rank last in the conference in assists per game, averaging just 10.9 APG.

Purdue ranks second in the Big Ten in scoring at 73.7 PPG, which is bad news for the Hoosiers, as the Boilermakers have won 38 straight games when scoring 70 or more points. Purdue is 13-4 ATS as a favorite this season, including a whopping 10-3 ATS when giving at least 5.5 points. But despite winning four straight against the Hoosiers, Purdue is 0-4-1 ATS in its past five meetings and 2-9 ATS at Indiana since 1998. The last time the Boilermakers won as many as five straight games against Indiana was when they won seven straight from 1968-72. I like Purdue to continue its solid play and cover the spread Wednesday night. The FoxSheets give another reason to support the Boilermakers:

PURDUE is 13-3 ATS (81.3%, +9.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons. The average score was PURDUE 71.4, OPPONENT 58.6 - (Rating = 2*).

Purdue has played three straight games finishing Over the total and this FoxSheets trend also sides with the Over on Wednesday.

PURDUE is 11-3 OVER (78.6%, +7.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season. The average score was PURDUE 74.6, OPPONENT 62.8 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 02-23-2011, 03:16 PM

Thunder try to snap 5-game losing skid vs. Spurs

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (36-19)

at SAN ANTONIO SPURS (46-10)

Tip-off: Wednesday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: San Antonio -7.5, Total: 206.5

The best team in the NBA for the first half of the season will host the Thunder on Wednesday as the Spurs take on Oklahoma City for the third time this season.

Oklahoma City defeated the Clippers 111-88 Tuesday night to start the second half on a high note. The Thunder are 28-26 ATS this season, having won their last two after losing three straight ATS. They are just 13-14 ATS on the road where they have lost two straight and five of their last eight ATS. Oklahoma City has shot the ball very well lately, posting a 49.7 shooting percentage over its past eight games. Kevin Durant scored just 16 points in his last meeting against the Spurs and is averaging just 19.5 PPG, nearly 10 PPG under his season average, in two games against San Antonio this season. Russell Westbrook has also struggled against the Spurs in his career, averaging just 13.6 PPG on 34.4 percent shooting in his 10 career meetings against them.

The Spurs return home for the first time since January 29, as they went 6-3 on their nine-game road trip. San Antonio is a league-best 25-2 at home where it has won 18 straight games. The Spurs are 34-20 ATS this season, which is third-best in the NBA behind the 76ers and Knicks. San Antonio has also shot the ball well recently, shooting over 50 percent seven times in its past 12 games, averaging 49% FG and 42% from three-point range over that span. After scoring single digits in his previous six games, Gary Neal has averaged 13.5 PPG on 60% FG over his past four games. Tony Parker led the Spurs with 26 points in their loss to the Bulls in their final game before the All-Star break. He is averaging 19.0 PPG and making 64 percent of his attempts this season against the Thunder.

San Antonio has won five straight against the Thunder, holding them to 93.8 PPG on 41.8 percent from the field and 25.5 percent from three-point range. The Spurs have won nine of their last 10 games when giving 5.5 points or more. I’m taking San Antonio minus the 7.5 points. These two FoxSheets trends also back the Spurs:

Play Against - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKLAHOMA CITY) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, playing with 3 or more days rest. (86-39 since 1996.) (68.8%, +43.1 units. Rating = 3*).

SAN ANTONIO is 67-34 ATS (66.3%, +29.6 Units) in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) - 2nd half of the season since 1996. The average score was SAN ANTONIO 95.7, OPPONENT 88.5 - (Rating = 2*).

The FoxSheets also lean towards the Over.

Play Over - Any team (SAN ANTONIO) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days. (64-29 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.8%, +32.1 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 02-23-2011, 03:30 PM

Wednesday Tips

February 22, 2011

The news revolving around the All-Star Weekend was the future of Carmelo Anthony and whether or not he would finish the season as a member of the Nuggets, Knicks, or Nets. Following Monday night's trade of the former Syracuse star from Denver to New York in a 12-player deal, the Knicks will be another storyline in the already drama-filled Eastern Conference. The Knicks roll out the red carpet for 'Melo and Chauncey Billups' debut against the unrested Bucks to highlight the Wednesday card.

Bucks at Knicks - 7:30 PM EST

Never before have fans been more excited to see Milwaukee invade Madison Square Garden than they will on Wednesday. It's not exactly for Eryan Ilyasova or Earl Boykins, as the Bucks play the second end of a back-to-back against the retooled Knicks. New York introduces its new squad, seeking its third consecutive victory after beating the Nets and Hawks to wrap up the first half.

The odds have changed for both the Nuggets and Knicks after Anthony's move to Manhattan, as the oddsmakers pushed New York up the charts. Mike Pierce of Sportsbook.com notes that the Knicks have gone from 20/1 to 10/1 to win the Eastern Conference, while moving from 40/1 to 20/1 to win the NBA title. On the flip side, the Nuggets fell down the Western Conference ladder by dropping from 20/1 to 80/1 to claim the conference title. The odds to win the NBA Title virtually went out the window for the Nuggets as they are listed at 200/1 after being 40/1 prior to the trade.

Pierce says the odds on MVP haven't changed despite the trade, "We haven't adjusted MVP odds at all. Carmelo is 50/1 to win the award. Amare Stoudemire is just 2/1 to win MVP because he has helped the Knicks improve significantly, while Carmelo didn't." Stoudemire and the Knicks are just 4-4 ATS and 5-3 SU the last eight games as a home favorite coming into Wednesday's action.

VegasInsider.com's Chris David believes that the Knicks may not be a team to back moving forward, "Anthony's exposure will help New York and the NBA as a whole, but from a betting standpoint, the value with this team is gone. So far, gamblers following the Knicks have watched them go 13-14 straight up on the road and only two of the losses were by double-digits. New York has been a very competitive squad away from home and it's translated into a league-best 19-7 record against the spread. "

Meanwhile, the Bucks have been up and down recently with a 5-8 SU and 7-6 ATS since January 26, as Milwaukee looks to duplicate its second half run from last season. Scott Skiles' squad went 22-8 the final 30 games of 2009-10 following a 24-28 start with the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference still up for grabs. Milwaukee is a profitable 11-9 ATS as a road underdog, while picking up covers in losses at Golden State and Memphis this month.

Thunder at Spurs - 7:05 PM EST

These two division leaders in the Western Conference meet for the third time this season as San Antonio looks to trip up Oklahoma City again. The Spurs return home following the 6-3 SU/ATS Rodeo trip, playing at the AT&T Center for the first time since January 29. The Thunder has won five of seven since losing at home to the Heat on January 30, but Oklahoma City tries to improve on a 2-5 ATS mark as a road underdog over the last two months.

San Antonio has taken care of business in each of the first two meetings against the Northwest Division leaders, while beating Oklahoma City each of the last five times since last season. The Spurs won at the Ford Center in mid-November, 117-104 as 2 ½-point underdogs, while San Antonio overcame a five-point halftime deficit. Matt Bonner drilled all seven of his three-point attempts as the Spurs knocked down 34 of 38 free-throw attempts.

Gregg Popovich's club blew away the Thunder on New Year's Day, 101-74 at the AT&T Center as 6 ½-point 'chalk.' The game was never in doubt as the Spurs built a 14-point lead after the first quarter, while limiting Oklahoma City to just 33% shooting from the floor. In this five-game winning streak over the Thunder, the Spurs are a perfect 5-0 ATS, while the two meetings in Texas have finished 'under' the total.

The Thunder busted out of the second-half gate with a 111-88 blowout of the Clippers on Tuesday, easily cashing as 8 ½-point favorites. Oklahoma City is just 2-4 ATS the last six games with no rest, including the 27-point beatdown on January 1 at San Antonio. The Thunder has shined as an underdog of at least five points by compiling a 4-1 ATS ledger this season.

Lakers at Blazers - 10:35 PM EST

Los Angeles ended a three-game skid in style by dumping Atlanta on Tuesday night, as the Lakers head up the West Coast to battle the surging Blazers. Portland is riding a six-game winning streak following last Wednesday's comeback victory over New Orleans. The Blazers look to avenge a 25-point whipping at Staples Center back in early November.

Portland fell behind by 22 points at the half of a 121-96 setback to Los Angeles as the Lakers cruised to a cover as 7 ½-point favorites. All five Lakers' starters finished in double-figures, while Shannon Brown and Matt Barnes combined for 28 points off the bench. The key was shutting down Brandon Roy, who was held to eight points on just one made field goal.

Four of the last five meetings at the Rose Garden have gone to the Blazers, even though the Lakers dumped Portland without Kobe Bryant last February, 99-82. Since a 10-point loss to Boston on January 27, the Blazers have pulled off home victories over the Spurs, Bulls, and Hornets. Portland has cashed the 'over' in four of the last five games following a six-game 'under' streak from late January through early February.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-23-2011, 03:32 PM

Wednesday Total Trends

February 23, 2011

St. Bonaventure at Fordham - The Bonnies have gone "under" 7-3 their last 10 games.

DePaul at St. John's - Conflicting "totals" trends between these Big East foes; Blue Demons "over" 8 of their last 10, while Steve Lavin's Red Storm is "under" 9-5 its last 14.

Virginia Commonealth at Drexel - Conflicting "totals" trends between these Colonial rivals; VCU is "over" 6 of its last 7, while Bruiser Flint's Drexel is "under" 8 of its last 9.

Hofstra at NC-Wilmington - Both trending "over lately (Hofstra 5-1 last six, Wilmington 5-0-1 last 6).

Miami-Ohio at Akron - Lots of "overs" both way in recent weeks for these MAC foes, with Charlie Coles' Miami-O RedHawks "over" 10-3 their last 13 (Miami-"O-ver-hio?"), and the Zippity-do-das "over" their last four.

Toledo at Western Michigan - The Broncos are "over" 7-1 their last 8 outings.

Bowling Green at Ohio - Both of these MAC rivals are trending "over" lately (Falcons their last 8, Bobcats their last five).

Eastern Michigan at Ball State - The Eagles are "over" in their last four games.

Temple at Duke - Owls "over" 6-2-1 their last nine outings.

Virginia at Georgia Tech - The Yellow Jackets are "under" 8-3 their last 11.

St. Joseph's at UMass - Balding Phil Martelli's Hawks are "under" 9 of their last 12.

Miami-Florida at Boston College - BC is "over" in 4 of its last 5 games.

UTEP at East Carolina - Tim Floyd's Miners are "over" their last two but "under" 8 of their last 12.

Colorado at Texas Tech - Pat Knight's Red Raiders are "over" their last two but had gone "under" their previous 8 games.

Central Michigan at Northern Illinois - The Chippe-"flaws" are "under" 18-6 this season after Saturday's low-scoring BracketBuster at Niagara, although that conflicts with NIU's 5 "overs" in the Huskies' last six games.

Evansville at Drake - The Purple Aces are "over" in 6 of their last 8.

Creighton at Wichita State - The Bluejays are "over" in 9 of their last 13 outings.

Missouri State at Southern Illinois - Conflicting Missouri Valley trends; Bears "over" 9 of their last 11, Salukis "under" 5 of their last 7.

Colorado State at BYU - Note that the Rams are "under" in their last six games.

UNLV at New Mexico - Lon Kruger's not-so-Runnin' Rebels are "under" 12-4 their last 16.

Kansas State at Nebraska - Note that Lon Kruger's alma mater K-State is "under" 14-6 this season.

North Carolina at N.C. State - Tar Heels have gone "under" their last four.

Air Force at Wyoming - The Force is "over" 13-6 this season.

New Mexico State at San Jose State - For the handful of fans tonight at the Event Center, they'll be watching a San Jose team that is "over" 6-1 its last 7 and 10-3 its last 13.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-23-2011, 03:34 PM

Wednesday's Wagers

February 23, 2011

We begin our look at tonight’s monster card by talking about a team I’ve enjoyed a lot of success supporting in recent weeks, Michigan. Since losing six in a row, the Wolverines have responded by winning six of their last eight games while also going 7-1 against the spread.

Tim Hardaway Jr. was the catalyst in Saturday’s 75-72 overtime win at Iowa as a one-point underdog. Hardaway scored an efficient 30 points on just 14 shots (nine makes). He didn’t force anything and let the offense come to him even when Michigan fell behind by double digits in the first half.

Darius Morris also had a spectacular game against the Hawkeyes. The sophomore point guard finished with 20 points, nine assists, five rebounds and a pair of steals. Jordan Morgan added 18 points and eight boards.

Michigan (17-11 straight up, 15-8 against the spread) returns to the floor tonight in a crucial league game vs. Wisconsin in Ann Arbor. As of early this morning, most betting shops had the Badgers installed as 3 ½-point favorites with a total of 121.

Wisconsin (20-6 SU, 13-9 ATS) is coming off Sunday’s 76-66 home win over Penn State as an 11 ½-point home favorite. Bo Ryan’s squad was ahead of the number for most of the game, but a slew of late 3-pointers by PSU’s Talor Battle helped the Nittany Lions notch the backdoor cover.

The ‘over’ is 13-9-1 overall for Michigan, 8-3-1 in its home games. The ‘over’ is 12-9-1 overall for the Badgers, cashing in each of their last three outings. The ‘under’ is on a 7-1 run in the last eight head-to-head meetings between these programs.

These rivals met in Madison on Jan. 5 with Wisconsin capturing a 66-50 win as a 12-point home favorite. Michigan actually led by two at intermission, only to get outscored by 18 in the second half. Jordan Taylor had 20 points and eight rebounds for the winners.

The Big Ten Network will provide television coverage at 6:30 p.m. Eastern.

In a non-conference matchup, top-ranked Duke will take on Temple from out of the A-10 (which is as strong as its been in a decade this year). As of early this morning, most books had the Blue Devils favored by 14 with a total of 138 ½.

Duke (25-2 SU, 15-11 ATS) has won six in a row since losing at St. John’s on Jan. 30, going 5-1 ATS. The Blue Devils fell behind early at home against Ga. Tech on Sunday night, but they surged in front late in the first half and eventually took a 79-57 victory as 18 ½-point favorites.

Nolan Smith scored 28 points, grabbed seven rebounds and dished out four assists against the Yellow Jackets. Senior forward Kyle Singler added 15 points and nine boards.

Temple (21-5 SU, 15-11 ATS) has won eight consecutive games with six of those victories coming by double-digit margins. The Owls are coming off Sunday’s 66-52 home win over St. Joseph’s as 15 ½-point home favorites. Ramone Moore, who leads Temple in scoring with a 15.4 points-per-game average, had a team-high 17 points against the Hawks.

Temple will be without junior forward Scootie Randall, who will miss his second straight game with a foot injury. Randall averages 11.6 points and 5.1 rebounds per game.

Fran Duphy’s team has wins over Maryland, Georgetown and Richmond. The Owls, who have lost eight straight against Duke, have been underdogs six times this year, posting a 2-4 SU record and a 3-3 ATS mark.

Tip-off on ESPN2 is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

The second leg of the Big Ten Network’s doubleheader will feature Purdue at Indiana at 8:30 p.m. Eastern. As of early this morning, most books were listing the Boilermakers as 5 ½-point favorites with a total of 136 ½.

Purdue (22-5 SU, 16-8 ATS) has won four in a row both SU and ATS, including Sunday’s 76-63 win over Ohio St. as a one-point home ‘chalk.’ E’Twaun Moore exploded for a career-high 38 points against the Buckeyes, draining 13-of-18 shots from the field.

Indiana (12-15 SU, 10-11 ATS) has lost four consecutive games and is coming off a lackluster effort in Saturday’s 70-64 loss to Northwestern as a 2 ½-point home favorite. Verdell Jones III had 18 points and six assists for the Hoosiers, but they couldn’t contain John Shurna when stops were at a premium at crunch time.

The ‘over’ has cashed in three straight for Purdue to improve to 13-10-1 overall. As for IU, it has watched the ‘over’ go 11-10 overall, although the ‘under’ is 7-3 in its home assignments.

Purdue has won four in a row over IU, but the Hoosiers are 6-2 ATS in the last eight head-to-head encounters with their bitter in-state rivals.

Kentucky is a road favorite once again tonight when it ventures to Fayetteville to face Arkansas. As of early this morning, most spots had the Wildcats listed as seven-point favorites.

Kentucky (19-7 SU, 10-11 ATS) has lost five of its six SEC road games both SU and ATS. However, the ‘Cats were at Rupp Arena on Saturday when they crushed South Carolina by a 90-59 count as 14 ½-point home favorites.

Darius Miller led the way against the Gamecocks with 22 points, nine rebounds and three blocked shots. Terrence Jones finished with 19 points and 12 boards.

Arkansas (16-10 SU, 7-12 ATS) has won 14 of its 16 home games, going 5-4 versus the number at Bud Walton Arena. The Razorbacks are in bounce-back mode following Saturday’s 69-56 loss at Alabama as 10 ½-point underdogs. The Hogs actually led for a good chunk of this game and the Tide didn’t pull away and get ahead of the number until the final two minutes of play.

This SEC showdown will come off the board at 8:00 p.m. Eastern. Gamblers with ESPN’s Full-Court Package can watch the game on channel 724 on Direct TV.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--BYU has won nine in a row against Colorado State, compiling a 7-1-1 spread record during that span. The Cougars will take on the Rams tonight as 14-point home favorites with a total of 148. The ‘over’ is 6-1 in the last seven head-to-head meetings between these league rivals. The Mountain West Network will have this telecast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

--The ‘under’ has cashed in six consecutive games for Colorado St. The Rams own a 7-3 ATS record in 10 games as underdogs this year. They are 3-0 ATS when catching 8 ½ points or more. In its last double-digit ‘dog situation, Colorado St. spanked UNLV 78-63 as a 13-point puppy.

--Alabama has covered the spread in nine consecutive home games at Coleman Coliseum. Anthony Grant’s squad will play host to arch-rival Auburn tonight in Tuscaloosa. Most spots have the Crimson Tide marked as a 17 ½-point favorite.

--Auburn is 7-3-1 ATS in 11 games as a double-digit underdog this season.

--Florida faces a daunting four-game stretch to end the regular season, starting with Thursday's home game against Georgia. The Dawgs, who won Saturday at Tennessee, will be looking to avenge a double-overtime loss to the Gators in Athens earlier this year. UF could be without senior forward Chandler Parsons, who is 'questionable' with a deep thigh bruise. Parsons missed the first game of his career Sunday at LSU.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-23-2011, 03:39 PM

WGC-Accenture Match Play: First round odds & picks

February 22, 2011 4:33PM

After a ho hum Sunday at the Northern Trust Open, the PGA Tour heads to Arizona for the WGC - Accenture Match Play Championship from the Ritz-Carlton Golf Club in Marana.

This is a field of the top 64 players in the world that play until one winner remains. It’s only match play event of the season and definitely gets some added attention because of it. This will be the first time since the 2009 event at Doral that every player ranked in the top 50 will be teeing it up this week.

The WGC Match Play starts a day earlier to accommodate the six rounds and concludes with a 36-hole final match on Sunday.

Unlike the NCAA Tournament where the higher seeds normally advance, anything can happen here and while rankings are still important, they are not to be taken too much into consideration. In the 12 years of this event, a No. 1 seed has won it only three times and that of course was Tiger Woods, the only player to win this event three times.

There are plenty of upsets throughout but for the most part, a low seed usually takes home the prize. The last four years, a No. 3 seed or better has won the event and in the 12 years, nine winners have come from a sixth seed or better.

Lee Westwood, Martin Kaymer, Phil Mickelson and Woods are the one seeds this year with Woods the overall moneyline favorite at +1200.

Here are my eight favorite first round matchup bets:

Ryan Moore +105 over Francesco Molinari

Moore made his debut last year and lost to Ernie Els 4 and 3 but he has a tremendous match play record. In seven USGA individual championships as an amateur, Moore collected a 27-4 match-play mark and won the 2004 U.S. Amateur. Molinari has Ryder Cup experience but lost in the first round in this event last year to Zach Johnson.

K.J. Choi +105 over Retief Goosen

Goosen had a strong showing here last year but he has been very inconsistent for the most part including a first round loss two years ago. Choi missed this event last year after losing to Oliver Wilson in 2009 (Wilson went to the third round) but he has a lot of experience here and in the President’s Cup. A 13-seed at +105 says he is better than that.

Henrik Stenson +160 over Lee Westwood

Westwood is the most likely No. 1 seed to go down in the first round as he drew the 2007 champion in the first round. Westwood lost to Nick Watney in the second round last year and has never made it past the round of 32. Stenson also came in third in 2008 and even though the last two years he lost in the first round, the value is tremendous.

Ross Fisher -115 over Robert Allenby

Many will forget that Fisher made it to the semifinals two years ago and ended up with a fourth place finish. He was upset in the first round last year and that alone should fuel the fire. The fact that he is a 10-seed and laying even odds should tell you something as well. Allenby reached the quarterfinals in 2005 but he has gone only 2-5 since then.

Sean O’Hair +135 over Hunter Mahan

This is not a knock on Mahan at all. I just think this is great value on O’Hair, who was a fourth seed last year and is now a 12th seed and getting 12th-seed value. He made it to the quarterfinals two years ago, losing to Paul Casey. This is the first match since the infamous flubbed chip at the Ryder Cup and Mahan is just 2-3 in this event in his career.

Yuta Ikeda +125 over Miguel A. Jimenez

Jimenez has loads of experience in this event and numerous Ryder Cups but his recent play here has been spotty at best. He reached the quarterfinals in 2000 but he has not made it past the second round since, losing in the first round four of the last seven years. Ikeda lost to Watney last year, certainly not a bad loss, and that experience will help here.

Bubba Watson +120 over Bill Haas

I mentioned that seeding should not be looked at too much but in this case, we are getting a No. 5 seed as an underdog against a 12 seed. Watson withdrew last week at Riviera with a strained oblique but should be ready to go. Both he and Haas are rookies in this event but I will take the Ryder Cup experience with Watson at a great price.

Padraig Harrington +125 over Geoff Ogilvy

We all know the success that Ogilvy has had in this tournament but he was ousted in the second round last year. It’s safe to say this year’s first round opponent is a little tougher. Harrington has not had nearly the same amount of success here but gets excellent value being just one seed lower.

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