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**StarDust Bum** · 02-21-2011, 03:00 PM

Capitals look to take advantage of depleted Pens

WASHINGTON CAPITALS (31-19-10, 72 pts)

at PITTSBURGH PENGUINS (36-19-5, 77 pts)

Puck drops: Monday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Washington -135, Pittsburgh +115, Total: 5.5

Two teams who are a potential first-round matchup in the Eastern Conference will meet in Pittsburgh on Monday when the Capitals travel to take on the Penguins.

The Pens are coming off a shootout loss at home to the Blackhawks on Sunday. They are just 2-4-1 over their past seven games, and are finally looking like the barrage of injuries that have hit them recently is taking effect. Three of their top four scorers have been out since February 6. Evgeni Malkin is lost for the season with a torn ACL and MCL and Sidney Crosby hasn’t played since January 6 because of a concussion, and his status for the rest of the season is unknown. Chris Kunitz suffered a lower-body injury on February 6 and is out 4-to-6 weeks. Despite that, Pittsburgh still has the second most points in the conference, and is six points behind the Flyers for first in the Atlantic Division. Brett Sterling has scored three goals and recorded a point in each of his five games since being called up from Wilkes-Barre/Scranton on February 10.

Since starting the season 18-6-2, the Capitals are still searching to regain their early-season dominance. Since then Washington is just 13-13-8 and currently sits in fifth place in the Eastern Conference, three points behind the Lightning for first in the Southeast Division and five points behind the Penguins for fourth in the Eastern Conference. This is the final contest of a five-game road trip which has seen Washington go 2-2, including winning Sunday in Buffalo, 2-1. Alex Ovechkin had an assist on Sunday, and has five points in his last three games.

Caps defenseman Mike Green (upper body) is questionable, while Tom Poti is day-to-day with a lower-body injury. Eric Fehr (shoulder) is out. In addition to missing Malkin, Crosby and Kunitz, Pittsburgh is also without Mark Letestu (knee), Arron Asham (upper body), Dustin Jeffrey (lower body) and Eric Tangradi (concussion). Nick Johnson also missed his first game Sunday with an upper-body injury.

The Capitals will make the postseason, but desperately want to enjoy home-ice advantage for at least the first round. In order to do that, they need to cut down the distance between them and the Penguins. I like Washington, which is 6-1 in the past seven meetings, to win again.

The FoxSheets also support the Capitals in this game:

PITTSBURGH is 12-17 ATS (41.4%, -11.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.0, OPPONENT 3.1 - (Rating = 1*).

I’m also looking at these two FoxSheets trends with huge ratings that advise me to take the Under.

WASHINGTON is 13-0 UNDER (+13.2 Units) after allowing 1 goal or less in their previous game this season. The average score was WASHINGTON 1.9, OPPONENT 2.0 - (Rating = 7*).

WASHINGTON is 31-7 UNDER (81.6%, +24.0 Units) against good offensive teams - averaging 29.5+ shots on goal per game this season. The average score was WASHINGTON 2.6, OPPONENT 2.4 - (Rating = 6*).

**StarDust Bum** · 02-21-2011, 03:01 PM

Villanova favored by 3.5 over Syracuse

SYRACUSE ORANGE (22-6, 9-6 in Big East)

at VILLANOVA WILDCATS (21-6, 9-5 in Big East)

Tip-off: Monday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Wells Fargo Center - Philadelphia, PA
Line: Villanova -3.5 Total: 135.5

Two teams battling for a bye to the Big East Quarterfinals in their conference tournament will face each other on Monday night in Philadelphia. The top four teams receive a bye to the quarterfinals for the Big East Tournament, which starts March 8 at Madison Square Garden. Right now, Nova is tied with St. John’s and Louisville for fourth in the Big East with Syracuse a half-game behind them. This is the second meeting this season between these two teams. The Wildcats defeated the Orange 83-72 back on January 22.

After starting the season 18-0, Syracuse has lost six of its past 10 games. With an RPI of 22 and a strength of schedule of 25, the Orange are just about a lock to go dancing. However, if they want to secure a good seed in both the Big East and NCAA Tournaments, they need to get their act together. At 10-16, the Orange have been one of the worst teams in college basketball this season ATS. They are 3-7 in their last 10 ATS, but have won two of their past three on the road ATS. After scoring just nine points in a loss at Louisville, Kris Joseph has averaged 18.5 PPG in his past two games, both wins, against West Virginia and Rutgers. He scored 23 points in Syracuse’s home loss to Villanova earlier this season. Joseph has been bothered by knee injury, but he is expected to play Monday. The starting backcourt of Scoop Jardine (hand) and Brandon Triche (eye) are also listed as probable to play against Villanova. Syracuse has done an excellent job this season at holding opponents to a low shooting percentage with its matchup 2-3 zone, as conference foes are shooting a mere 41.6% in Big East games.

Villanova is another team that is basically a lock for the NCAA Tournament. Its RPI stands at 24, while its strength of schedule is 36. After starting the season 16-1, Nova is just 5-5 in its past 10 games, but have won two straight and four of its past six. The Wildcats are 12-12 ATS this season, but have really struggled lately ATS, losing four straight and seven of their past eight games. After scoring just 23 points in his previous two games, Corey Fisher scored a career-high 34 in the Wildcats overtime win at DePaul on Saturday. Maalik Wayns has scored five points or less in two of Nova’s past four games, but scored 17 against DePaul, and led the Wildcats with 21 points in the win over Syracuse on January 22.

Syracuse is susceptible to three-point shooting, which makes Nova a very tough assignment for them. The Wildcats lead the Big East in three-point percentage during conference play, shooting 40.3 percent. They made 11-of-24 from behind the arc in their first meeting at the Carrier Dome. Villanova also leads the Big East in free-throw percentage during conference play, shooting 76.7 percent from the line. Making foul shots was another big reason it defeated Syracuse earlier this season as the ‘Cats made 22-of-24 attempts. The Wildcats have won six of their past eight meetings against Syracuse (5-3 ATS), and I like them to continue that trend on Monday. I’m taking Villanova minus the points.

The FoxSheets provide two highly-rated reasons to play against Syracuse:

SYRACUSE is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in road games revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. The average score was SYRACUSE 65.3, OPPONENT 74.8 - (Rating = 3*).

SYRACUSE is 3-13 ATS (18.8%, -11.3 Units) after playing a home game this season. The average score was SYRACUSE 73.4, OPPONENT 66.3 - (Rating = 3*).

This four-star FoxSheets trend supports the Under for the side bet in this game.

VILLANOVA is 11-0 UNDER (+11.0 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 4 or more consecutive games since 1997. The average score was VILLANOVA 67.6, OPPONENT 69.8 - (Rating = 4*).

**StarDust Bum** · 02-21-2011, 03:02 PM

Kansas goes for 15th straight home win over Oklahoma St.

OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS (16-10, 4-8 in Big 12)

at KANSAS JAYHAWKS (25-2, 10-2 in Big 12)

Tip-off: Monday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Kansas -17, Total: 145

The former number one team in the country hosts Oklahoma State as the Jayhawks try to make it two in a row after suffering a loss to Kansas State last Monday.

After replacing Ohio State at number one last week, Kansas did not make it a week in that spot, getting embarrassed by Kansas State 84-68. The Jayhawks are still are ranked number one in the RPI and currently have played the ninth-toughest schedule in the nation. They are 14-11 ATS this season and have won six of their past seven ATS, which includes four straight at home. Offense has been the Jayhawks strength this season as they enter Monday leading the nation in FG Pct. At 52.1%, they are the only team in the country that is shooting over 50 percent. They also rank tied for fourth in the nation in PPG, averaging 83.5. After suffering through an awful performance against Kansas State scoring three points and grabbing no rebounds, Markieff Morris returned to form against Colorado on Saturday. Morris scored 26 points and pulled down 15 rebounds in an 89-63 Kansas win. His eight offensive rebounds were the most by a Kansas player in a conference game in seven years.

Oklahoma State enters losers of three straight and nine of its past 14 games after starting the season 11-1. The Cowboys, whose RPI sits at 59 entering Monday, basically need to run the table and make a great showing in the Big 12 Tournament in order to qualify for the NCAA Tournament this season. They are 10-10 ATS this season, which includes a 2-6 mark on the road. They have lost four straight and seven of their last eight ATS entering Monday. They are 0-6 SU (1-5 ATS) on the road in conference play and have lost eight straight going back to last season. They also may be without leading scorer Marshall Moses, who averages 14.1 PPG. The senior swingman has been sick and logged only seven minutes in a 67-66 home loss to Texas A&M on Saturday, going scoreless for the first time this season. Oklahoma State has had issues shooting the ball during conference play this season, ranking last in the Big 12 in FG Pct. (40.0%) and three-point FG Pct. (26.4%). Oklahoma State has not won at Allen Fieldhouse since February 8, 1989, when current Kansas coach Bill Self was an assistant to then-Cowboys coach Leonard Hamilton.

Kansas will be looking for its 15th straight home win and should have little problem getting it. The Jayhawks are giving 18 points, but they have won three straight and are 6-3 ATS when giving at least 18 points on the season. The Cowboys have not done well when getting points this season, as they are 3-6 ATS as an underdog and 0-4 when getting at least six points on the season. I’m taking Kansas minus the points. The FoxSheets also support the Jayhawks with these two trends:

KANSAS is 11-2 ATS (84.6%, +8.8 Units) off a home win this season. The average score was KANSAS 83.5, OPPONENT 57.9 - (Rating = 3*).

OKLAHOMA STATE is 3-12 ATS (20.0%, -10.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.The average score was OKLAHOMA STATE 63.4, OPPONENT 73.7 - (Rating = 2*).

Eleven of the past 15 games in the series have finished Under the total and this FoxSheets trend also likes the Under for Monday’s meeting.

OKLAHOMA STATE is 14-5 UNDER (73.7%, +8.5 Units) in road games versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots over the last 2 seasons. The average score was OKLAHOMA STATE 64.5, OPPONENT 70.1 - (Rating = 1*).

**StarDust Bum** · 02-21-2011, 03:03 PM

Trending: NBA Majority fading

Last week’s column focused on majority betting in the NBA and this week we will examine majority fading, or betting against certain teams. Below is our breakdown of games when at least 65% of the bets were for one team. At the end of this column is an Over/Under dissection. All numbers are through Monday, Feb. 21 and are all ATS results. Games that finished as Pushes were not included in this study.

ATS BETTING
In examining bets when at least 65% of the bets go to one team, we first took a look at home teams.
Vast Majority (65% or more) bets Home Team
Total: 61 wins, 73 losses (46%)

Records by Spread
Favored by 3 or less: 4-5 (44%)
Favored by 3.5 to 6.5: 26-22 (54%)
Favored by 7 to 9.5: 17-30 (36%)
Favored by 10 or more: 14-16 (47%)
In this category, favorites of at least seven points are having a harder time covering at 31-46 (40%).

We then examined 65% Majority bets for road teams, we found that favorites of at least seven points are having a much easier time than home teams, covering these bets at 18-12 (60%).

Vast Majority (65% or more) bets Road Team
Total: 154 wins, 136 losses (52%)

Records by Spread
Road Teams Overall: 154-142 (52%)
Road Team Underdogs: 44-36 (55%)
Road favorites of 3 or less: 46-36 (56%)
Road favorites of 3.5 to 6.5: 46-58 (44%)
Road favorites of 7 or more: 18-12 (60%)

Next we broke down these records team-by-team. Predictably, the majority of bettors fade the really bad teams, and rarely bet against the NBA elite. Eight teams have six or fewer majority bets (65%) against them this year -- L.A. Lakers 0, Miami 1, Atlanta 5, Chicago 5, Oklahoma City 5, Boston 6, Dallas 6 and San Antonio 6. This group represents eight of the nine best SU records in the league (Spurs 1, Celtics 2, Heat 3, Mavericks 4, Bulls 5, Lakers 6, Thunder 7, Hawks 9). The Magic have the eighth best SU record and they only have seven majority fades this season. Now we’ll break down the teams that bettors most love to bet against in droves.

Teams with MOST Majority Fades (65% bet against)
Sacramento 31 (14-17 ATS)
Washington 29 (13-16 ATS)
New Jersey 27 (14-13 ATS)
Memphis 26 (18-8 ATS)
Minnesota 25 (14-11 ATS)

The Kings, Wizards, Nets and Timberwolves have four of the six worst SU records in the NBA, so it makes sense that bettors fade these terrible teams. But fading these clubs hasn’t been highly profitable as the vast majority has a combined 57-55 ATS mark when doing so. But what’s up with the Grizzlies? Memphis is 31-26 SU and has the fourth-best ATS record in the entire league (35-21, 63%), so there’s no reason for this team to have the fourth-most fades in the NBA. Majority bettors are getting absolutely slaughtered on Memphis fades, losing 69%, which includes a ridiculous 85% (11-2) when fading the Grizzlies on the road.

Other than Miami (1-0), there are five NBA teams that are winning at least 60% of the time when 65% or more of the public fades them.

BEST Records ATS when Faded by Majority (65% or more)
Chicago 80% (4-1 ATS)
Philadelphia 74% (14-5)
New York 71% (5-2)
Memphis 69% (18-8)
Portland 62% (8-5)
This group represents four of the top five ATS records in the NBA this year with the 76ers, Knicks, Grizzlies and Bulls ranking 2-3-4-5 respectively in ATS win percentage. Portland is ninth in the league with a 53% ATS success rate. Bettors are pretty much avoiding the big-market teams here, Chicago and New York, with just 12 total bets against these two highly successful betting clubs. But Philadelphia is also a mystery here with a stellar 35-20 ATS mark (64%) and a near-.500 SU record (27-29). The 76ers are 10-3 ATS (77%) when 65% majority fades them at home this season.

There are nine NBA teams that are winning 40% or less when at least 65% of the public fades them. Four of these teams have been faded less than seven times (Dallas 1-5, Oklahoma City 1-4, San Antonio 2-4, Atlanta 2-3), so let’s focus on the five other teams that are making majority bettors look smart.

WORST Records ATS when Faded by Majority (65% or more), min. 7G
Denver 29% (2-5 ATS)
Golden State 36% (5-9)
Indiana 36% (5-9)
Phoenix 36% (4-7)
L.A. Clippers 40% (6-9)
It’s interesting to note that Denver is the only team on this list that is among the league’s bottom 10 in terms of overall ATS record this season (25-30, 46%). However, the Warriors are the only team here with a winning ATS record this season (30-25, 55%), as the Pacers, Suns and Clippers are a subpar 76-82 ATS combined.

OVER/UNDER BETTING
In terms of game totals, the general public has been pretty bad this season. There have been 397 games where 65% or more of the betting public has sided one way or the other on the total with a poor success rate of 44.8% (178-219). The Over has dominated these bets, as 88% of the time the public goes heavily for one side, that majority is backing the Over.
65% or more bets for the OVER:
157 wins
191 losses
45.1%

65% or more bets for the UNDER:
21 wins
28 losses
42.9%

In terms of the team breakdown, four teams are finishing OVER at least 60% of the time when 65% of the betting public expects that to happen.

Best OVER Pct. for Majority Over Bets
Cleveland 75% (6 Over, 2 Under)
Oklahoma City 67% (20-10)
Dallas 64% (23-13)
Portland 61% (19-12)
Pretty big numbers here in terms of Units Won, as the three West teams are 62-35 combined. The Thunder, Cavs and Mavs are actually ranked 1-2-3 in terms of highest over percentage in all games, so their inclusion here correlates with those rankings. Portland has actually played more games Under (28) than Over (27), giving the Blazers 8 Over and 16 Under (33%) when NOT a majority Over bet.
You certainly can’t predict these success rates based on scoring offense or scoring defense. Oklahoma City (5th) is the only one among the top 15 scoring teams in the league. Dallas is 16th, Portland is 24th and Cleveland is 25th in points. Looking at this from a defensive point of view, the Cavs have allowed the 3rd-most points and Thunder are giving up the 11th-most, but the Trail Blazers and Mavericks are two of the better defensive teams in the NBA at 22nd and 24th most points allowed, respectively.

Worst OVER Pct. for Majority Over Bets
Indiana 18% (3 Over, 14 Under)
Milwaukee 25% (6-18)
Denver 26% (6-17)
New York 27% (7-19)
Orlando 33% (6-12)
These are some brutal success rates with a healthy sample size for each team. Unlike the list above showing the correlation to the top three Over teams, Milwaukee is the only team on this list that is among the seven worst Over bets on the season. Orlando is the eighth-worst, but New York is 13th-worst and Denver is 25th (or sixth-best).
Like the list above, these teams are all over the map in terms of scoring offense as the Nuggets and Knicks are the highest-scoring teams in the NBA while the Bucks are the lowest. The Magic rank 11th in scoring and the Pacers are just behind them at 13th. New York has surrendered the second-most points in the league while Denver has the sixth-worst scoring defense, but Orlando has the fifth-best PPG allowed and Milwaukee is even better at 3rd in the league.

The Under sample size is much smaller, but there are some teams to note here for the rare times the majority of the betting public sides with the Under.

Best UNDER Pct. for Majority Under Bets (minimum 3 games)
Portland 3 Under, 1 Over
Indiana 2-1
Memphis 2-1
Cleveland 5-3
Toronto 4-3

Worst UNDER Pct. for Majority Under Bets (minimum 3 games)
Philadelphia 0-4
Miami 0-3
Charlotte 1-5
Detroit 1-3
San Antonio 3-6

**StarDust Bum** · 02-21-2011, 03:05 PM

NCAA Betting Preview: Syracuse Orange at Villanova

Down the stretch they come, and a big question now is will any team step up the Big East and serve notice that it is the squad to beat in the conference tourney and NCAA's? Pittsburgh still owns a somewhat comfortable two-game lead at the top of the pack, but after the Panthers' loss to St. John's on Saturday and Notre Dame was soundly defeated at West Virginia, even their positions as 1-2 in the conference seem vulnerable.

The Villanova Wildcats and Syracuse Orange will each try to take first steps towards a strong closing run on Monday when the rivals meet at The Pavilion. ESPN will have the broadcast starting at 4 p.m. (PT).

Villanova (21-6 straight up, 12-12 against the spread) survived Saturday's game at DePaul, but just barely in a 77-75 overtime win. Favored by a dozen, the Wildcats needed a three-pointer from Corey Fisher in the waning seconds of regulation to tie the contest and force extra play when Fisher would rise to the occasion again with seven of his team's 15 OT points.

It was all part of a huge game for the senior who tallied a personal-best 34 points, hitting 11-of-18 field goals against just one turnover on the afternoon. Mouphtaou Yarou contributed a double-double to the 'Nova attack, scoring 12 and pulling down 15 rebounds, eight of them on the offensive end of the floor that helped the Wildcats survive a 26-for-65 shooting day as a team.

The win capped a 2-0 week for Villanova, both victories on the road in less than impressive fashion over Seton Hall and DePaul by a combined five points. The loss at the betting window left the Wildcats 1-7 versus the NCAA odds in their last eight games, going 4-4 straight up in that span.

Equally unimpressive for bettors recently, Syracuse (22-6 SU, 10-16 ATS) also struggled to get past a lesser opponent in overtime on Saturday, slipping by Rutgers in the Carrier Dome, 84-80. Oddsmakers listed the Orange as 12-point home favorites, and anyone who played 'Cuse in the minus-800 vicinity on the money line needed a lopsided day at the free-throw line to cash their tickets.

Syracuse scored 34 of its points from the charity stripe where the Orange held a 47-14 advantage in attempts over the Scarlett Knights. Rick Jackson had seven of Syracuse's 11 blocks, adding 18 points and 12 rebounds. C.J. Fair made a big contribution as well, coming off the bench to play 37 minutes with 17 points and eight boards.

The failure to cover the spread sent Orange backers into the red for the third time in four games, and seventh of the last 10.

Villanova went to the Carrier Dome on Jan. 22 as a 5½-point underdog and left with an 83-72 win over Syracuse. The Orange scored the first bucket of the game, the only time they led, and the Wildcats consistently frustrated Syracuse's 2-3 zone to take an 11-point lead into the locker room. 'Nova shot well (25-for-50) from the field, pushing the ball on offense to help negate the Orange's defense, and was nearly flawless from the line converting 22 of its 24 attempts.

Fab Melo's status for Monday's game remains up in the air. The big freshman has played just a few seconds over three minutes in Syracuse's last four games, and remains in Jim Boeheim's doghouse for the present. He saw limited action in the home loss to Villanova earlier this season, scoring one bucket and grabbing a pair of boards in eight minutes.

Corey Stokes remains a question mark for Villanova as he battles through a turf toe injury. The senior was leading the team in scoring (14.6 PPG) before missing the last three games. Maalik Wayns has started in his place and seen his scoring average drop a smidge in his new role, 13.4 PPG on the season compared to 11.7 in the last three games.

Villanova remains at home for Saturday's matchup with the St. John's Red Storm, then takes to the road for its final two regular season contests at Notre Dame (Feb. 28) and Pitt (March 5). Syracuse will be at Georgetown next Saturday then idle for a week before closing the regular season at home versus DePaul.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-21-2011, 03:07 PM

NHL Betting Preview: Washington at Pittsburgh

A pair of second-place teams in their respective divisions meet for the fourth time this season when the Washington Capitals travel to Pittsburgh for a Monday matchup against the Penguins.

Though both teams played Sunday, the Pens seem to have the scheduling advantage. The Caps played at Buffalo on Sunday morning, which was the fourth stop on a five-game road excursion.

Monday’s game will be Washington’s fourth game in six nights, all on the road. Versus will provide the broadcast from CONSOL Energy Center starting at 4:30 p.m. (PT)

Pittsburgh played at Chicago on Sunday morning, but the Pens most recent game prior to that was last Wednesday against Colorado.

Wagering on the ‘under’ where either of these two clubs is concerned has been a successful endeavor. The same holds true when the clubs face each other.

The ‘under’ is 43-16 in Washington’s first 59 overall outings and 23-6 in its last 29 road endeavors. Pittsburgh has seen the ‘under’ go 36-21 overall and 11-3 in its last 14 efforts. Additionally, the ‘under’ is 8-2 in the last 10 series meetings at Pittsburgh.

All three meetings this season have dipped ‘under’ the closing total, which started at six goals in the first two matches and was reduced to 5 ½ in the most recent matchup.

Pittsburgh registered a 3-2 shootout victory in the first meeting on Dec. 23 as a 115 road underdog. The Pens won the game despite getting outshot 34-27 and going 0-for-5 on the power play.

Pascal Dupuis scored in the seventh round of the shootout to give the Pens the win. Chris Kunitz and Sidney Crosby scored in regulation, while Marc-Andre Fleury made 32 saves in regulation and six more in the shootout.

Washington got revenge on New Year’s Day during the annual Winter Classic with a 3-1 victory as a 130 road underdog. The Pens held a slim 33-32 advantage in shots on goal, but against failed to score on the power play in four opportunities.

Eric Fehr scored twice and Mike Knuble got the other marker to provide Washington’s offense. Rain fell throughout the game, coming down harder at the start of the third period. Because the wind became a factor late, the teams switched sides midway through the third period to keep things fair.

The most recent meeting occurred Feb. 6, with the Caps blanking the Pens as 150 home favorites, 3-0. Michal Neuvirth turned aside all 22 shots he faced, while Brooks Laich, Marcus Johansson (shorthanded) and Mike Knuble (empty-net) provided the offense.

Pittsburgh was playing without Sidney Crosby (concussion) and Evgeni Malkin (torn ACL). Marc-Andre Fleury finished with 22 saves, but saw his seven-game winning streak come to an end.

Both clubs failed to score on the power play, with Washington getting four chances and Pittsburgh receiving two opportunities. The Pens are now 0-for-11 with the man advantage in the three meetings against the Caps.

Prior to Sunday’s games, the Caps were 13-12-3-0 on enemy ice, while the Pens were 20-10-1-0 in their first 31 home dates.

Monday’s goalie matchup figures to be Washington’s Neuvirth against Pittsburgh’s Fleury. Neuvirth is 17-9-1-3 with a 2.53 GAA, a .910 save percentage and two shutouts. Fleury is 27-14-1-1 with a 2.29 GAA and .920 save percentage. He also has two shutouts.

Pittsburgh stays home for a Wednesday contest against the San Jose Sharks. Washington finally gets three days off before hosting the New York Rangers on Friday.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-21-2011, 03:08 PM

Week 16 NCAA basketball betting preview

Week 15 saw each of the top-4 teams in the AP add a mark to their loss columns.
Sam Peckinpah was known for movies with violence at their core. Nothing was too bloody or gory for the old filmmaker.

The last week-&-a-half of the college basketball schedule played out as if 'Bloody Sam' was calling the shots, and if the season continues in Peckinpah's mold, we shouldn't expect the good guys to win in the end.

It was only fitting that the carnage came during ESPN's BracketBuster week.

Ohio State's loss at Wisconsin on Feb. 12 ignited the tough stretch for top-ranked schools. By the time the Buckeyes suffered their second loss of the campaign eight days later at Purdue, seven of the most recent AP top-10 had suffered defeat. That number could grow to eight if Duke is upset Sunday evening after we go to press.

Kansas spit the bit in its first game after ascending to the No. 1 slot, setting the stage for Ohio State to move back to the top or opening the door for either Texas or Pittsburgh to assume the position. Neither the Longhorns nor the Panthers seemed to want the spot, however, the 3-4 teams respectively in the AP dropping conference road tilts on Saturday (Feb. 19).

So it leaves writers and coaches with a real mess to sort through with the next set of rankings. Will we see Duke rise all the way from fifth to first, assuming the Blue Devils take care of business with a big win at home Sunday evening against Georgia Tech?

Could Kansas remain on top after no other school directly behind the Jayhawks came away from Week 15's bloodbath? Is it time for voters to start throwing some love to San Diego State or BYU in advance of their Week 16 collision? And would it really matter if they simply threw out last week's polls in the same order and played the same scene again, Peckinpah style?

Here's a fast rundown of where you'll find the top teams this week.

1. Kansas (25-2 SU, 14-13 ATS)
The Jayhawks take on a couple of Big 12 South clubs this week, first hosting Oklahoma State on Monday and then traveling to Oklahoma for Saturday's contest. Kansas fell 85-77 at the Cowboys as six-point favorites last season, winning 81-68 at home versus the Sooners but failing to cash as huge 21-point chalk.

2. Ohio State (25-2, 11-13)
Life on the Big Ten road has resulted in consecutive losses for the Buckeyes, so they'll be more than happy to see their Week 16 slate strictly at home in Columbus. Ohio State welcomes Illinois to Value City Arena on Tuesday after the Illini put up a tough fight in Champaign on Jan. 22, an eventual 73-68 win for the Buckeyes (minus three). Indiana arrives in Columbus on Sunday; OSU covered a 13-point line in Bloomington on Dec. 31 with an 85-67 triumph.

3. Texas (23-4, 16-6)
Coming off their first loss since early January, the Longhorns should jump right back in the win column this Tuesday when they host Iowa State. Texas finishes the week on the road at Colorado on Saturday, a team they cracked at home last season, 103-86, missing the 21-point spread.

4. Pittsburgh (24-3, 11-11)
The Panthers will looking to maintain their two-game lead in the Big East when they host West Virginia on Thursday. The two schools met in Morgantown on Feb. 7 with Pitt a 71-66 winner in a contest that closed as a pick 'em on the NCAA odds board. Pittsburgh will close the week on Sunday at Louisville.

5. Duke (*24-2, 14-11)
The Blue Devils slip out of ACC play to host Temple on Wednesday, a game we will feature here at Don Best. Duke finishes the week off on the road in Blacksburg against Virginia Tech, a team the Blue Devils have beaten four straight.

6. San Diego State (27-1, 16-10)
Steve Fisher will have all week to prepare his Aztecs for Saturday's rematch versus BYU. The Cougars were favored by 5½ when they handed San Diego State its only loss of the season Jan. 26 in Provo, 71-58. The Aztecs have reeled off seven wins since then, going 4-3 ATS in the stretch. Brigham Young scored a 71-69 win in San Diego last season, a 'push' for bettors who got in on the closing number that favored the Cougars by a pair.

7. Brigham Young (25-2, 11-12)
Before they go to San Diego on Saturday, the Cougars host Colorado State on Wednesday. BYU won and covered as seven-point chalk in Fort Collins on Jan. 22.

8. Notre Dame (21-5, 13-9)
Their seven-game Big East streak done, the Fighting Irish will end a three-game conference road stretch Wednesday at Providence. Notre Dame will then return to South Bend to host Seton Hall, a possible look-ahead alert on that one with the Irish having games versus Villanova and Georgetown to follow.

9. Georgetown (21-6, 15-11)
The Hoyas will host Cincinnati on Wednesday and remain home for Saturday's crucial meeting with Syracuse. Georgetown beat the Orange Feb. 9 at the Carrier Dome, 64-56, as a 4½-point underdog, snapping a three-game regular season losing skid against 'Cuse.

10. Wisconsin (*19-6, 13-8)
An opportunity to sweep a pair of Big Ten rivals awaits the Badgers this week. Bo Ryan's charges will travel to Michigan on Wednesday after beating the Wolverines in Madison on Jan. 5 as 12-point favorites, 66-50. The week ends at home versus Northwestern on Sunday. Wisconsin pounded the Wildcats in Evanston Jan. 23, easily covering the one-point spread in the 78-46 rout.

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