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**StarDust Bum** · 02-18-2011, 06:04 PM

NCAA Odds: Missouri State at Valparaiso Crusaders

Both Valpo and Missouri State have been trending to the ’over’ on totals.
If it was an interconference matchup of the No. 4 and No. 17 teams in the AP or coaches rankings, the hype would be huge. Instead it's the fourth- and 17th-ranked schools among the mid-majors, and a bit sad that it's not getting the pregame publicity despite what should be a wonderful contest.

ESPN2 will give the casual fan and bettor a rare look at the Missouri State Bears and Valparaiso Crusaders this Saturday afternoon when the teams tip-off in Valpo's Athletics-Recreation Center at 2 p.m. (PT). A win won't guarantee either team an at-large invite to the NCAA Tournament; a loss guarantees the only way in will be as an automatic conference winner.

This road trip could be a good break for Cuonzo Martin and Missouri State (21-6 straight up, 12-12-2 against the spread), allowing the Bears some action to keep them from thinking ahead to their big conference game at home a week from now against Wichita State. Martin's club is tied with the Shockers at the top of the Missouri Valley Conference with 13-3 records going into this weekend. Wichita State had its own BracketBuster this week Friday night at home versus Virginia Commonwealth.

Missouri State is looking for its first March Madness appearance since the Bears made their improbable run into the Sweet 16 of the '99 tournament as a 12-seed. Mo State has won its last four, and six of eight, but has failed against the NCAA odds with one winner in the last nine. The Bears opened the year a 11-4-2 at the window.

It's not that uncommon to see a team like the Bears have fail against the spread. They're in the top 50 of all college teams in defensive scoring allowing just 62.4 per game. Missouri State also shoots well overall, again ranking in the top 50 of the country (46.7 percent). A drop in the offense is responsible for the failure to cover but one in nine, all as favorites as in the Bears last game against Drake.

Missouri State was off its season mark from the field and from long range as well in the 60-51 triumph as 14-point chalk. Strangely enough, though that game went well 'under' the 134 total and the Bears have been playing pretty good defense, they've been cashing 'overs' during their ATS skid very well, 13-9 on the season and 8-2 in the last month or so.

Valparaiso (19-8 SU, 13-11-1 ATS) hits their home floor just a half-game south of Cleveland State in the Horizon League, and a half-game ahead of Butler and Milwaukee. Wednesday's 79-76 loss at Milwaukee was number three in the Crusaders' last seven, with two of the four wins of the overtime variety.

Like the Bears, Homer Drew's club enters this one in poor shape against the line, just 2-4-1 in their recent stretch. Another trend Valpo shares with Missouri State is shooting well (47.9 percent), in the top 20 in that category most of the season, save for a few very far-off games like early in the season at Kansas and earlier this month at Cleveland State.

One more similarity is making 'over' bettors happy in the last month, 7-3 since mid-January. And yet a final is a school trying to get to March Madness for the first time in a while, Valparaiso's last trip to the NCAA's in March 2004 that ended quickly in a 76-49 loss to Gonzaga.

The Crusaders will head to Green Bay shortly after this one for Monday's Horizon League game with the Phoenix. Mo State remains on the road as it heads back into MVC play with a Wednesday contest at Southern Illinois, to be followed by that big regular season finale at home versus the Shockers next Saturday (Feb. 26).

**StarDust Bum** · 02-18-2011, 06:06 PM

NCAA Odds: Red Storm brewing versus Pitt

No. 4 Pittsburgh sits atop the Big East Conference with a 12-1 record.
The St. John’s Red Storm are a Big East pushover no more as they host the Pittsburgh Panthers on Saturday afternoon. Pitt will see the return of junior guard Ashton Gibbs.

The Red Storm (16-9 straight-up, 11-13 against the spread) are looking for their first 20-win season since 2002-2003 when Mike Jarvis was head man. Former UCLA coach Steve Lavin took over this season after a six-year stint from Norm Roberts.

St. John’s is also 8-5 SU in the conference, after going 32-70 SU during Roberts’ reign. Lavin inherited a team that was short on victories, but deep in experience. There are six seniors in the top-7 of the rotation, with the other (Dwayne Polee Jr.) a freshman.

The experience didn’t mean much early on with an 11-8 SU start (7-11 ATS). That included going 4-5 SU and ATS in the Big East.

However, Lavin wasn’t hired purely on his coaching ability. He’s been sitting behind an ESPN microphone since leaving UCLA in 2003 and is a charismatic guy who can recruit and motivate. That was evident when defending champ Duke came to Madison Square Garden on Jan. 30 and got buried (93-78 loss as eight-point favorites).

The Red Storm have used that game as a springboard and are 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) in their last six games overall. They have wins and ‘covers’ in their last three vs. Connecticut (89-72) and at Cincinnati (59-57) and Marquette (80-68). All three were as ‘dogs.

Guard Dwight Hardy (17.1 PPG) has been on fire the last six games at 25.5 PPG. He’s almost single-handily willing this team to victories.

The Panthers (24-2 SU, 11-10 ATS) are ranked No. 4 in the Coaches Poll, the same as the preseason ranking. They have a great shot to make their first Final Four since 1941, but there’s still not a lot of national buzz as they lack a true superstar.

The only losses this year came at home against Notre Dame on January 24, 56-51 as 10 ½-point favorites. There was also an early December defeat to Tennessee (83-76 as eight-point favorites) at the off-campus Consol Energy Center in Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh is cruising in first place in the Big East at 12-1 SU (8-5 ATS) and currently has a five-game-winning streak. The last three were without its best player Gibbs (16.3 PPG), a guard who’s in range when he steps off the bus (46.3 percent in three’s).

Gibbs (knee) will give it a go against St. John’s, although his minutes are unknown. Sophomore Travon Woodall started in his absence, wins at West Virginia (71-66) and Villanova (57-54), and home against South Florida (67-55). Only the South Florida contest was a failure to ‘cover’ as 16 ½-point favorites.

This is a very mature team with three senior starters in guard Brad Wanamaker (12.6 PPG, 5.0 APG), forward Gilbert Brown (11.1 PPG, 4.5 RPG) and center Gary McGhee (7.3 PPG. 8.0 RPG).

Coach Jamie Dixon’s squad is allowing 61.3 PPG, second in the Big East and tied for 26th in the country. It’s solid, but not explosive offensively (76.2 PPG, 35th nationally).

The ‘under’ has gone 7-3 in Pittsburgh’s last 10 games after the ‘over’ started 9-2 in games with totals.

This looks like a tough matchup inside for St. John’s. Pittsburgh is first in the conference in net rebounds (plus 12.1), while St. John’s is 14th (minus 1.1). Even in its last five wins, St. John’s has been outrebounded four times.

Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU and ATS in the last five meetings between the teams. It swept both games last year, including 71-64 as two-point ‘chalk’ in New York.

There are no significant injuries to report with the exception of Gibbs.

ESPN will have the early 9 a.m. (PT) tip-off from Madison Square Garden.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-18-2011, 06:07 PM

NHL Betting Preview: Dallas Stars at Vancouver

Vancouver has opened a seven-point lead atop the Western Conference.
Dallas (31-21-6) concludes a three-game Canadian road trip against Vancouver (37-13-9) Saturday night trying to get back on the winning track. The Stars have dropped their last three games and are now just 2-7-1 the previous 10 outings. Dallas is currently seventh in the Western Conference standings, one of five teams with 68 points.

Vancouver is presently armed with the league’s best record, and the team has a sizeable seven-point lead over second-place Detroit in the Western Conference. The Canucks continue to play solid hockey, posting a 7-3 ledger the previous 10 games. Vancouver will now take the ice for the fourth time the previous five nights with this contest.

Dallas enters this matchup mired in a three-game losing streak after falling to Calgary Wednesday as a 172 road underdog, 4-2. The combined six goals went ‘over’ the 5 ½-goal closing total, ending a string of back-to-back ‘under’ outings.

The Stars took a second-period lead by scoring both goals just over three minutes apart, but they allowed the last three goals of the game. Dallas finished the contest with an advantage in faceoffs won (32-23), but trailed the Flames in shots on goal (31-24).

The Stars got their goals from Mike Ribeiro and Jamie Langenbrunner, but that was not enough for the team to avoid their sixth straight road setback. Goaltender Kari Lehtonen stopped 27 shots in the loss.

Vancouver has alternated wins and losses its last six games after Thursday’s setback to Nashville as a 108 road underdog, 3-1. The combined four goals failed to topple the 5 ½-goal closing total, helping the ‘under’ cash the third game in a row.

All the scoring for both teams occurred in the second period, leaving the Canucks with a 1-2 record during their three-game road trip. Daniel Sedin scored Vancouver’s lone goal on a power play, while goaltender Roberto Luongo stopped 23 shots. The Canucks did lead in shots on goal, 36-26, and faceoffs won, 32-28.

Vancouver has beaten Dallas in three previous matchups this season by a combined 12 goals, 15-3. The Canucks prevailed Dec. 31 as 120 road ‘chalk,’ 4-1, Jan. 24 as a 170 home favorite, 7-1, and Feb. 1 as a 115 road ‘chalk,’ 4-1. The ‘under’ went 2-1 during those earlier outings, and this is the last meeting of the regular season between these teams.

Dallas center Brad Richards (head) is listed as ‘doubtful’ versus the Canucks, while defenseman Nicklas Grossman (lower body) and right wing Raymond Sawada (head) are ‘questionable.’ Left wing Jamie Benn (shoulder) and right wing Krys Barch (eye) are ‘out’ indefinitely. The Stars return home after this contest to host New Jersey before going back on the road against Detroit.

Vancouver defenseman Kevin Bieska (foot), defenseman Andrew Alberts (wrist), defenseman Dan Hamhuis (concussion) and defenseman Keith Ballard (knee) are ‘out’ against the Stars. The Canucks begin a six-game homestand with this contest before squaring off against Montreal, St. Louis, Boston, Columbus and Nashville. Vancouver is 20-4-1-4 on its home ice, with the ‘over’ going 16-12-1.

CBC will provide coverage of Saturday’s matchup beginning at 7:00 p.m. PT from Vancouver’s Rogers Arena.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-18-2011, 06:08 PM

Daytona 500 Odds: Earnhardt Jr. in the spotlight

The green flag drops on this Sunday’s Daytona 500 at 10 a.m. (PT).
The 53rd Daytona 500 takes place Sunday and it’s only fitting that Dale Earnhardt Jr. is leading most of the pre-race news. Fox will have the ‘Great American Race’ at 10 a.m. (PT).

Jamie McMurray was victorious last year, becoming the ninth different winner in the last nine years.

Earnhardt Jr. earned this year’s pole position last Sunday with a lap of 186.09 miles per hour. However, he wrecked his car during a practice run on Wednesday and by rule will have to start at the rear in his backup.

This race will mark the 10-year anniversary of when dad Dale Earnhardt died during the final lap of the 43rd Daytona 500. Earnhardt Jr. won the Daytona 500 in 2004, but has struggled overall since. That was supposed to change in 2007 when he moved to Hendrick Motorsports, but he’s placed just 12th, 25th and 21st in the last three season standings.

Team owner Rick Hendrick had seen enough, especially considering Earnhardt Jr. hadn’t won a race since 2008. He is now teaming with crew chief Steve Letarte, who used to be with Jeff Gordon.

Despite all the travails, and the Wednesday crash, Earnhardt Jr. is tied for second in the Daytona 500 odds (plus 900) at Bodog.com. He has four top-5 finishes in 11 Daytona 500 starts.

Earnhardt Jr. has two wins overall at Daytona International Speedway (22 starts), also taking the Pepsi 400 in 2001.

Kevin Harvick (plus 800) is the favorite for Sunday after finishing third in the season standings last year. He won the 2007 Daytona 500 and has four top-5 finishes in nine starts. He has two total wins at this track (19 starts), also taking the Coke Zero 400 in 2010.

Kyle Busch (plus 900) is dangerous on Sunday despite never winning the Daytona 500 in six tries and having just one top-5 finish. He does have one win at Daytona International Speedway in 12 starts (Coke Zero 400 in 2008). He finished eighth last year in the season standings as he looks for that elusive first championship.

Tony Stewart (plus 1000) is a two-time season champion (2002, 2005), but has never won in 12 Daytona 500 starts (just three top-5 finishes). He does have three wins at this track (24 starts), with the most recent the Coke Zero 400 in 2009.

Kurt Busch (plus 1000) won Thursday’s first qualifying race in addition to the Budweiser Shootout at Daytona last Saturday. He has never won at Daytona International Speedway (20 starts). That includes 10 at the Daytona 500, although he does have four top-5 finishes.

Jeff Gordon (plus 1100) is a three-time winner at the Daytona 500, the last time in 2005 (the others 1999 and 1997). He has six overall wins in 36 tries at Daytona International Speedway.

Jimmie Johnson is plus 1400 on Sunday despite winning the last five season championships, an unprecedented feat. He has one lifetime win at this track (18 starts), the 2006 Daytona 500. He’s has four top-5 finishes in nine overall Daytona 500 starts.

Other Daytona 500 favorites at Bodog.com are Clint Bowyer (plus 1200), McMurray (plus 1200), Carl Edwards (plus 1400), Denny Hamlin (plus 1400) and Jeff Burton (plus 1400).

**StarDust Bum** · 02-19-2011, 09:52 AM

St. John's looks to knock off another giant in Pittsburgh

PITTSBURGH PANTHERS (24-2, 12-1 in Big East)

at ST. JOHN’S RED STORM (16-9, 8-5 in Big East)

Tip-off: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Pittsburgh -3.5, Total: 134

The statistics are not exactly what one would call, lusty? 31.9 RPG (304th in Division I), 69.8 PPG (157th in Division I) and just 13.1 APG (16th in nation). As a team they are only shooting 33% from three-point territory, and its leading rebounder is only pulling down 5.4 boards per night. All of which the NCAA selection committee couldn’t give a rat’s posterior about. At the end of the day it’s all about the W’s, and Steve Lavin’s St. John’s team has been racking them up following a three-game skid late in January. Beginning with its signature 93-78 victory over Duke, St. John’s (16-9, 8-5) has won five of its past six, and have defeated four ranked teams overall. If the Red Storm can find a way to make it six out of seven and five wins over ranked teams, with a victory Saturday over the first-place Pittsburgh Panthers, they would all but assure themselves of their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2002.

That said, beating up on No. 4 Pittsburgh is easier said than done. That is because Pitt, despite playing without its leading scorer Ashton Gibbs for the past three games, usually hands out the beatings as opposed to accepting them. Without Gibbs, who sat out while recovering from a torn MCL injury, the Panthers went 3-0, nabbing tough road victories over West Virginia and Villanova along the way. Now Gibbs will return to the lineup on Saturday for the matchup against the surging Johnnies, putting the Big East’s top team at full strength once again. "I feel good," Gibbs told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. "It's not sore or anything. It feels normal. It's close to 100 percent. I can feel it a little bit, but it's nothing major at all. It's definitely close to 100 percent.”

Fortunately for coach Jamie Dixon, senior Brad Wanamaker (12.6 PPG) stepped up his scoring in Gibbs’ absence, tallying 15.0 PPG over the three games that Gibbs missed. Pittsburgh is coming off a 67-55 victory over South Florida in a game where the Panthers pounded the Bulls on the glass, outrebounding USF 40-18 for the game, while committing just 12 turnovers on the night. The Panthers have won 14 of their past 15, and save for a less-than-spectacular, 23-point second half versus Notre Dame on January 24, would be undefeated in Big East play. It’s been five years since Pittsburgh last fell to St. John’s, that loss came in January 2006, a 55-50 defeat at the Garden which knocked the Panthers out of the ranks of the unbeaten.

St. John’s is coming off an 80-68 victory Wednesday night at Marquette. This game was tied at 38 at the half before the Johnnies kicked up the D in the second half to hold one of the quickest teams in the conference to 30 points in the final 20 minutes of play. Dwight Hardy led all scorers with 28 points on the night as he continues to perform at a white-hot offensive level. Over his last four games Hardy is averaging 27.8 PPG, shooting 37-of-72 from the floor (51.4%), elevating his game at the right time of year. D.J. Kennedy chipped in with 15 points, while Justin Burrell added 10 points and a season-high 12 rebounds. St. John’s was also superb with its perimeter defense against Marquette, a team that normally shoots over 36% from beyond the arc, was just 3-of-14 against the Red Storm. It was the first win over the Golden Eagles in 11 games for Lavin’s team. Saturday at the Garden, the Johnnies will be trying to snap another losing streak against a conference foe.

Pittsburgh is 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in the past 10 meetings with St. John’s. The Panthers are also 8-5 ATS in Big East play and 4-2 ATS on the road. The Red Storm are 7-6 in Big East play, but just 5-6 ATS at home. The pick here is Pittsburgh.The FoxSheets show another highly-rated reason to side with the Panthers.

Play On - A favorite (PITTSBURGH) - a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against a good defensive team (63-67 PPG), after allowing 55 points or less. (96-46 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.6%, +45.4 units. Rating = 3*).

This four-star FoxSheets coaching trend expects the game to finish Under the total.

Steve Lavin is 10-0 UNDER (+10.0 Units) after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games in all games he has coached since 1997. The average score was Lavin 71.9, OPPONENT 73.0 - (Rating = 4*).

**StarDust Bum** · 02-19-2011, 09:53 AM

Irish go for 8th straight win visiting West Virginia

NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (21-4, 10-3 in Big East)

at WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS (16-9, 7-6 in Big East)

Tip-off: Saturday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: West Virginia -4, Total: 129.5

Who is the hottest team in the Big East? Conventional wisdom might point you in the direction of Pittsburgh, after all they do lead the conference with a 12-1 mark, winners of 14 of its past 15, and 24-2 on the year. But what about the men from South Bend? That one loss the Panthers suffered in league play came against Notre Dame, and the Irish have won seven straight games. If the eighth-ranked Fighting Irish are indeed the league’s hottest comet, then their temperature will be keenly tested by the three-game road trip they will begin on Saturday afternoon, a trip that will first take them to Morgantown, WV for an afternoon match-up against the very gritty and very offensively-challenged West Virginia Mountaineers.

The Mountaineers (16-9, 7-6) have lost three of their past four games, and with another loss could fall to 7-7 in conference play, inching back towards that dreaded NCAA Tournament bubble, despite their impressive RPI rating of 23, and fourth-toughest schedule in the nation. For Bob Huggins, it’s not so much about the postseason basketball he hopes to play, as it is the quality of the regular-season basketball his team is playing right now that is cause for concern. Monday night in upstate New York the Mountaineers lost to Syracuse, 63-52, in a game where the team’s offensive strategy could be best described as “three or bust.” West Virginia made 11-of-22 three-point shots in the Carrier Dome, accounting for 33 of its 52 points. Casey Mitchell, playing in his fourth game back from a three-game suspension, played his best game since rejoining the team, scoring 23 points in just 26 minutes on 8-for-14 shooting. "We didn't make shots and we turned it over 16 times," West Virginia coach Bob Huggins said. "We turn the ball over 16 times, we're not going to win."

Making shots has been a difficulty for Huggins’ team, and consequently when you don’t make shots, you don’t score. In their past three losses, the Mountaineers have averaged 56.0 PPG. They shot 36.2% against the Orange, and 35.8% against Villanova, ultimately losing by 16. Last season, WVU and Notre Dame split two games, with West Virginia losing at South Bend, and then revenging that defeat by edging the Irish by two in the semifinals of the Big East Tournament.

At 21-4, Notre Dame is off to its best start in 30 years. Saturday’s contest will be its first game in a week, when the Irish defeated USF 78-55 in Florida. All five starters scored in double figures for the Irish against the Bulls, with Carleton Scott leading the party with 13 points to go with his 11 rebounds. In addition, sophomore Jack Cooley made like Jack Hottie, coming off the bench to contribute 18 points in just 16 minutes of action. The real hero this season for Mike Brey has been senior guard Ben Hansbrough (17.3 PPG, 4.1 APG, 3.8 RPG). During this seven-game win streak Hansbrough is averaging 20.9 PPG, totaling 18 assists and only eight turnovers. If he isn’t already, Hansbrough deserves to be every bit a part of the conversation for Big East Conference POY honors. Previously this season, the Irish have had long layoffs between games with mixed results. After losing on the road to Marquette, they were off for six days, and returned to the court to lose to St. John’s by 18. Later, following its January 24 win over Pitt, the team did not return to the court until February 3, when it defeated DePaul by 25. None of those experiences will be like going into WVU Coliseum, where the Mountaineer fans are loud, proud, and desperate for one more quality win by the home team, a notch to put into its tournament holster.

Although the Mountaineers are riding a four-game ATS losing skid overall, they are also 5-2 ATS in their past seven games hosting Notre Dame. WVU needs this win more than the Irish do, and with Casey Mitchell looking to be back to pre-suspension form, the pick here is West Virginia to win and cover at home. These two FoxSheets trends also support the Mountaineers.

W VIRGINIA is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) after 4 straight games with 31 or less rebounds since 1997. The average score was W VIRGINIA 68.8, OPPONENT 58.9 - (Rating = 3*).

Play Against - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NOTRE DAME) - a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an average offensive team (67-74 PPG), after a win by 15 points or more. (97-50 since 1997.) (66%, +42 units. Rating = 3*).

Twelve of the past 13 games in this series have finished Under the total and this highly-rated FoxSheets trend thinks the Under will occur again.

Play Under - All teams where the total is 129.5 or less (NOTRE DAME) - good shooting team (45-47.5%) against an good defensive team (40-42.5%) after 15+ games, after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better. (33-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.5%, +24.2 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 02-19-2011, 09:54 AM

Kansas goes for 28th straight home win over Colorado

COLORADO BUFFALOES (16-10, 5-6 in Big 12)

at KANSAS JAYHAWKS (24-2, 9-2 in Big 12)

Tip-off: Saturday, 2:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Kansas -15.5, Total: 155.5

No. 1 Kansas looks to continue its dominance over Colorado when it hosts the Buffaloes on Saturday afternoon. The Jayhawks are 29-1 against the Buffs in Big 12 play.

The Jayhawks saw their six-game winning streak come to a surprising end with an 84-68 loss at Kansas State on Monday. Kansas, which leads the nation in field-goal percentage (52.1%) shot just 44.0% as a team (22-of-50). Tyrel Reed (9.7 PPG, 38.2% three-pointers) finished with 14 points, while Marcus Morris (16.7 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 60.5 FG%) added 13. Markieff Morris (12.8 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 59.1 FG%) was limited to just three points and didn't have a single rebound for the first time this season. Kansas survived a close call at Colorado on Jan. 25, 82-78, marking its 16th straight victory against the Buffaloes. Josh Selby (11.4 PPG) led four Jayhawks in double figures with 17 points in last month's victory over the Buffs. Selby played only 11 minutes against K-State in his return to action after missing three games with a foot injury. KU also outrebounded Colorado 37-23, and had a 21-2 edge in second-chance points. Kansas is sixth in the nation in points (83.3 PPG), second in assists (18.3 APG) and leads the Big 12 in scoring margin (+18.5 PPG).

Colorado is just 3-8 on the road this season and is led by Alec Burks (19.5 PPG, 6.0 RPG), who had 25 points against Kansas in the first meeting last month. Burks saw his string of double-figure scoring games end at 13 in a 58-56 victory over Kansas State on Feb. 12. He finished with only eight points on 3-of-13 shooting versus the Wildcats, but tallied 10 rebounds. Cory Higgins (16.3 PPG) had 17 points versus K-State, which extended his double-digit scoring streak to seven games. Since winning seven straight, the Buffs have dropped six of their past eight contests. Three of those six setbacks came against Kansas, at Missouri (89-73) and versus Texas A&M in overtime (73-70). Colorado is 14th in the nation in points (79.9 PPG) and 29th in field-goal percentage (47.3%).

The Jayhawks own a 120-39 edge in the overall series with the Buffaloes and have won 43 of the past 44 games since 1991. Kansas has won 27 consecutive contests versus Colorado in Allen Fieldhouse, dating back to the 1984 season. Expect that to continue on Saturday, especially with the Jayhawks coming off a terrible loss on Monday. The pick here is Kansas. This highly-rated FoxSheets trend is another reason to side with the Jayhawks.

KANSAS is 18-4 ATS (81.8%, +13.6 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons. The average score was KANSAS 79.8, OPPONENT 67.0 - (Rating = 3*).

The Jayhawks have played six straight games Over the total and these two FoxSheets trends expect that streak to continue with another Over.

KANSAS is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season. The average score was KANSAS 86.6, OPPONENT 73.1 - (Rating = 3*).

COLORADO is 12-3 OVER (80.0%, +8.7 Units) vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was COLORADO 73.7, OPPONENT 83.1 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 02-19-2011, 09:56 AM

Michigan State favored by 2.5 over Illinois

ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI (17-9, 7-6 in Big Ten)

at MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (14-11, 6-7 in Big Ten)

Tip-off: Saturday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Michigan State -2.5, Total: 135.5

Usually we don’t use terms like “must-win game” when talking about Tom Izzo’s team in February. Usually we don’t hear the words Michigan State in the same sentence as the word “bubble” with selection Sunday less than four weeks away. Usually we never see a team with a postseason history as impressive as the Spartans entering a big home game as losers of six of their past eight. Usually. Well, these are not usual times in East Lansing, and this is not a typical Spartan team, and because of that, instead of entering Saturday’s home contest against Illinois with the intention of strengthening its argument for a two or a three seed, this Spartan team is just trying to secure an at large bid of ANY seeding. At 14-11, and 6-7 in conference, the clock is ticking, and the hour is getting late.

Sparty is coming off of a valiant effort on Tuesday night in Columbus against the Ohio State Buckeyes. Izzo’s team trailed by one at the half, and was nip-and-tuck with the Buckeyes for most of the second half until the offense just ran out of gas in the final six minutes of play, allowing Ohio State to pull away for the 71-61 victory. William Buford led the winners with 23 points. Leading scorer Kalin Lucas (21.3 PPG in past six games) had 14 points and five assists for Michigan State, while Draymond Green (13.1 PPG, 8.4 RPG) chipped in with 10, but the mystery of the game had to do with the continuing disappearance of Durrell Summers’ offense. Summers (12.6 PPG) had just one shot and zero points in 16 minutes of play. The double-digit-scoring senior guard has just 21 points in his past four games. If he doesn’t pick up the scoring pace in the next five games, his career will conclude with a whimper as opposed to a bang. Unusual for a Michigan State program that has made the Final Four six times since 1999, and is used to showcasing upperclassmen who like to conclude their careers with Final Four runs. The Spartans are looking to avenge a 71-62 loss to Illinois in Champaign back on January 18. In that game Illini guard Brandon Paul came off the bench to lead all scorers with 20 points, as the Spartan defense allowed Illinois to shoot over 53% from the field, while connecting on just 37.5% of its own shots. The Spartans will enter the game with an RPI of 50, having played the fifth-strongest schedule in the country, but also boasting only 13 Division I wins (win #14 came over Chaminade).

Illinois (17-9, 7-6) enters the game coming off of a tight home victory over Michigan, 54-52. The Illini nearly squandered a 10-point halftime advantage in the game’s closing moments, but held on thanks to Demetri McCamey’s team-high, 18-point effort. McCamey (14.5 PPG, 6.3 APG) bounced back nicely from a nightmarish effort versus Purdue a few days earlier, when he shot just 1-for-10 and barely had more points (four) than turnovers (three). Despite Illinois winning the battle of the scoreboard in the first meeting it was Michigan State that won the battle of the boards, outrebounding the Illini 34-28. Forwards Mike Davis (11.5 PPG, 6.9 RPG) and Mike Tisdale (9.5 PPG, 6.6 RPG) will need to match the physicality of what will be a very intense Michigan State team playing in front of its home crowd desperate for a win to keep alive its NCAA hopes. If there is a player that could turn out to be the X factor for Bruce Weber’s team, it could be Paul. In addition to the 20 he posted in the January victory, he entered the Michigan game averaging 18.6 PPG over his previous three games. Maybe it’s a stretch to say that this is a must-win game for both teams, since Illinois is in slightly better shape than the Spartans with 17 wins, and an RPI ranking them 38th, but let’s just say with the stakes as high as they are at this point in February, neither team believes they can “afford” a defeat come Saturday night.

Although Illinois has covered the spread in the past three series meetings, MSU is 8-3 SU in the past 11 games when hosting the Illini. The Spartans will hold their own at home again and come away with the much-needed victory. The pick here is Michigan State. This FoxSheets coaching trend also backs the Spartans.

Tom Izzo is 24-10 ATS (70.6%, +13.0 Units) revenging a same season loss vs. opponent as the coach of MICHIGAN STATE. The average score was MICHIGAN STATE 70.2, OPPONENT 62.1 - (Rating = 2*).

Fifteen of the past 23 games in this series have finished Under the total and this FoxSheets coaching trend thinks the Under will occur again.

Bruce Weber is 79-48 UNDER (62.2%, +26.2 Units) after 3 consecutive conference games as the coach of ILLINOIS. The average score was ILLINOIS 64.4, OPPONENT 59.9 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 02-19-2011, 10:02 AM

Bracket Buster Weekend

February 18, 2011

We have to admit that we thoroughly enjoy the "BracketBuster weekend" that ESPN introduced into the college hoop schedule a few years ago, the 2010-11 edition of which takes place this weekend. Although we have wondered at times if these matchups don’t do more harm than good to the teams involved, as the higher-profile "Buster" matchups will inevitably deal a defeat to a side that could hardly use another "L" as it builds in NCAA at-large case.

Still, it is good fun to see so many of these "mid-majors" on network TV after a steady diet of Big East, Big Ten and Big XII action. And we find it ironic that a couple of flagship mid-major sides that begged out of "Buster" action this season, Gonzaga and Butler (which each believed they had outgrown the event), could have probably used a chance at another high-profile non-conference scalp this season. Neither the Zags nor the Bulldogs are involved in this season’s BracketBusters. But the whole "Busters" concept seems to be working just fine for the mid and lower-level D-I leagues that participate; the entire BracketBusters slate mostly involves games that will be having no impact on Selection Sunday, but nonetheless provide the "feel" of a special event for the participating teams. The "Buster" games also often give us a chance to take a sneak peak at contenders in conferences such as the SoCon and Ohio Valley that are usually involved in the festivities and will be involved in upcoming tourney action.

By this time, every weekend until Selection Sunday on March 13 is packed with crucial games involving teams on the proverbial NCAA "bubble," and the BracketBusters event allows more of those matchups to come into focus. Following are some of the more-important "Buster" games to watch this weekend.

Virginia Commonwealth at Wichita State (Friday night, ESPN-2)... This matchup has suddenly become a lot more important for VCU, which has seen its NCAA at-large candidacy take a real hit in the last week with lopsided home losses to Colonial heavyweights Old Dominion and George Mason. This one at the Roundhouse now becomes a must-win for the Rams; anything less will require them to win the CAA Tourney (held in hometown Richmond, by the way) in a couple of weeks. As for Wichita, the Shockers are sitting pretty nicely at the moment, on the safe side of the Big Dance cut line, and can further solidify their status with the Selection Committee (and maybe not force themselves into must-win mode for upcoming "Arch Madness" in St. Louis) with a win over VCU.

Miami-Ohio at James Madison... Neither of these two figure to be in the NCAA at-large queue (they’ll need to win their respective conference tourneys to get to the Big Dance), although both are likely to surface somewhere in the postseason. We’re most intrigued by the recent uptick of Charlie Coles’ Miami-Ohio, especially since the RedHawks amazingly began to ascend at the same time key swingman Antonio Ballard went out with a wrist injury. Miami has won five in a row since to move atop the MAC East, and if nothing else the RedHawks will not intimidated by a trip to Harrisonburg after facing the likes of Duke, Ohio State, San Diego State, and Kansas (all potential number one NCAA seeds) in pre-league action.

Morehead State at Indiana State, and Evansville at Murray State... Not that there is anything particularly special about Ohio Valley vs. Missouri Valley matchups, but we find these two rather intriguing as they feature the top contenders (Morehead State and Murray State) in the OVC. Morehead, which put up a pretty decent fight in pre-league games vs. Florida and Ohio State, has won eight games in a row and could be entering the fast-approaching OVC Tourney (which we’ll preview, along with other early D-I tourneys, beginning next week) as the favorite. Watch bullish 6’8 frontliner Kenneth Faried, who does almost all of his work on the blocks, who's scoring 17.5 ppg, and had his number 35 retired by the Golden Eagles prior to last weekend’s win over SE Missouri State. As for the Racers from Murray, remember how they beat Vanderbilt in the NCAA first round last season and almost did the same to Butler in the second round. Like last year, Murray’s terrier-like 3-G lineup led by srs. B.J. Jenkins and Isacc Miles could cause some real matchup problems for many potential March foes.

Vermont at College of Charleston (ESPNU)... This could be a sneak peak at a pair of sides that could easily be participating in the Big Dance, with each leading their respective leagues (Vermont in the America East, Charleston in the SoCon South). The Catamounts, who have already clinched the A-East regular-season crown, are assured of home-court edge throughout their conference tournament. We need a bit more evidence, however, that Vermont (a possible Big Dance play-in game candidate) can deal with upgraded opposition after losses vs. BYU (not close), UConn (closer) and Metro-Atlantic leader Fairfield (even closer) in pre-league play. The Catamounts, if you recall, made the Dance last year under HC Mike Lonergan, and have a nice inside-outside combo with 6-8 PF Evan Fjeld providing the power on the blocks, and one of our favorite-named players in the country, 6’4 G Brendan Bald (this guy has to be dear to our hearts), proving a tough matchup on the perimeter. Bobby Cremins’ Cougars, however, are a bit more accomplished, having won at Tennessee and playing ACC reps Maryland (losing by only 1) and Clemson (losing by only 7) to the hilt on the road. Cremins’ star G Andrew Goudelock (23.7 ppg) will be one of the featured Buster performers on display this weekend; we would have loved to see a matchup vs. Hofstra (instead playing Wright State in another Saturday BracketBuster) and a battle vs. the Pride’s Charles Jenkins in what would likely have been a showdown of the best two mid-major guards in the country.

George Mason at Northern Iowa (ESPN-2)... When these matchups were announced in late January, Mason was in the early stages of what has become a 12-game win streak (and 13-game cover streak); we suspect if the matchups were made last week, we might have seen the Patriots facing Wichita (which would have been a rematch of a memorable 2006 Buster at the Roundhouse). And Northern Iowa might not have been granted such a featured matchup, either, as the Panthers have since lost their "garbage man deluxe" PF Lucas O’Rear to injury and dropped 3 of their last 4, effectively removing them from Big Dance at-large consideration. Another win for GMU likely wraps up an NCAA at-large spot and takes a bit of pressure off of Jim Larranaga’s troops for the fast-approaching Colonial Tourney in Richmond.

Utah State at Saint Mary’s (ESPN-2)... Neither of these two are taking anything for granted with the Selection Committee after both having been among the last cuts from Big Dance fields in recent memory. And there is heightened urgency on the Saint Mary’s side after a shock loss to WCC cellar-dweller San Diego (huh?) on Wednesday night. For Utah State, this a chance to avenge a 5-point loss to a bigger Gaels side last season that featured mammoth C Omar Samhan. SMC is a smaller but quicker this season, with USD transfer Rob Jones replacing Samhan’s post presence with an athletic, slashing element, although everything on the attack end for the Gaels is designed to set up long-range bombers Mickey McConnell (47.3% triples) and Aussie Matthew Dellavedova beyond the arc. The veteran Aggies, however, feature an experienced lineup that made the Dance last season while adding a more-athletic element at PG in Houston transfer Brockeith Pane, who can attack the bucket with more abandon than some of Stew Morrill’s recent floor leaders. The winner of this one will all but punch their at-large ticket to the Dance.

Montana at Long Beach State (ESPN-2)... Another matchup similar to the Charleston-Vermont showdown featuring a pair of teams currently leading their respective loops, although both Montana (Big Sky) and Long Beach (Big West) are going to have to win their conferences tournaments to get a call from the Selection Committee. There is another angle to consider with this matchup in that the winner of this one, should it advance to the Big Dance in three weeks, likely avoids one of the 16 vs. 16 play-in games. Montana, if you recall, made the Dance last season after upsetting Weber State in the Big Sky finale thanks to a memorable effort from now-graduated Grizzlies G Anthony Johnson, who pumped home 42 in Ogden. Remember, too, that Montana won at UCLA in December and has a legit post presence in 6-11, 260-lb. C Brian Qvale (15.0 ppg & 8.8 rpg). Watch the injury report for this one, however, because Montana HC Wayne Tinkle might decide to rest star soph G Will Cherry (ankle; 14.5 ppg) to make sure he is ready for the upcoming Big Sky Tourney. Cherry’s presence would be important vs. Dan Monsen’s go-go Long Beach side that has won five in a row and boasts of five DD scorers, led by whippet-like PG Casper Ware (16.4 ppg) and big 6-5 G Larry Anderson, a local product from LB Jordan High who causes matchup problems on the perimeter and is scoring 14.6 ppg. How the smaller Beach frontline handles the 6’11 Qvale will be an important factor, as well as the 49ers’ desire to speed up the tempo. Very interesting style clash.

Cleveland State at Old Doninion (Sunday, ESPN)... Recent uptick by ODU and developments elsewhere on the "bubble" have put the Monarchs in position to move up in Big Dance at-large queue, especially with fellow CAA rep Virginia Commmonwealth slipping in the last week. Meanwhile, most observers believe Gary Waters' Cleveland State (which made some noise in the Big Dance two years ago) will have probably done enough to at least make the at-large field if it wins the Horizon League regular-season crown. Interesting style clash, with the lengthy ODU backcourt paced by 6'5 stopper deluxe Kent Bazemore given the assignment of controlling the Vikings' 3-guard attack led by explosive sr. Norris Cole (20.9 ppg). Winner here goes a long way to securing itself an NCAA bid.

Stay tuned...

**StarDust Bum** · 02-19-2011, 10:05 AM

Pac-10 Bubble Watch

February 19, 2011

Last season looked like a year where the Pac-10 would only get one team into the NCAA tournament as there was mediocrity throughout the league. Every team ended the season with double-digit losses and 13-5 was the top mark in conference play with only four of ten teams featuring winning conference records. California won the regular season title but did not look completely safe for a tournament bid until they won a few games in the conference tournament. In the conference tournament championship game Washington beat California to lock up the automatic bid and the conference was saved the embarrassment of joining the MAC, SWAC, Ohio Valley and many other less prestigious leagues as a one-bid conference.

When it was all said and done though the Pac-10 acquitted itself fairly well in the Big Dance. California as a #8 seed pounded Louisville from the Big East 77-62 and then lost in a competitive second round game against eventual national champion Duke. As a #11 seed Washington squeaked by Marquette of the Big East in an exciting first round game and then upset #3 seed New Mexico in a blowout, winning 82-64 to move on to the Sweet 16. Washington lost there to a #2 seeded West Virginia team that would eventually win the region and make the Final Four. All in all it was a very respectable showing for the two representatives.

The Pac-10 did not have a great non-conference showing and few teams stood out early in the 2010-11 season. There will again be a small group of teams entering the NCAA tournament from the Pac-10, likely just three teams at most but don’t rule out those teams as being serious threats in the NCAA Tournament. Barring a very poor finish or an upset in the conference tournament Arizona, Washington, and UCLA all look in position to make the NCAA Tournament at this point, here is a look at those three teams in more depth and a look at the closing weeks of the conference schedule.

Arizona: The Wildcats are 11-2 in league play and with a 22-4 overall record the storied Arizona program is finally getting some national attention with a rise in the rankings. The two non-conference losses should only help to build the resume for the Wildcats, losing to Kansas and BYU and both games were away from home. The loss that takes Arizona out of the truly elite picture was a 76-75 loss at Oregon State very early in the conference season. At 9-15 Oregon State has not been a quality team and that upset will drop Arizona a notch in the seeding when the brackets come out. The only other loss in conference play came at Washington and while that loss is not too damaging, especially if revenge can be had with a home win this weekend, the margin of defeat was significant at 17 points. Arizona has won four consecutive road games since that loss and the Wildcats have been on an ATS tear so this is a team that could finish strong down the stretch and be a real threat to make noise in the NCAA tournament, likely seeded in a #3-5 slot. Arizona does not have any high quality wins which is why some still have some doubts with this team but it is a young squad that will likely play its best ball down the stretch. Despite its youth Washington is the top free throw shooting team in the conference and with only one senior on the team this looks like a program to reckon with in years to come on the national stage.

Washington: All of Washington’s losses have come by slim margins but like Arizona, the Huskies could not win in Corvallis with the largest defeat of the season coming in a 68-56 loss at Oregon State. Washington is undefeated at home this season but the Huskies also lack a high quality out-of-conference win. With four conference losses Washington does not have a great margin for error in the remainder of league play even with that looks like an expanding soft bubble. Non-conference losses to Kentucky, Michigan State, and Texas A&M will not be particularly damaging unless the Huskies slide and would fall into a profile face off with the Aggies or Spartans, two other teams that are sitting close to the edge of the NCAA tournament picture. UCLA currently is ahead of Washington in the league standings but Washington won in Los Angeles and with a home date ahead Washington has the opportunity to take over the second spot, with an upset at Arizona this weekend being a chance to become the top team in the league. The final three games of the season are at home so Washington should enter the postseason with some momentum and this is a team that has quality tournament experience and should be a threat to win a game or two in the NCAA tournament just like last season.

UCLA: The Bruins have a couple of less desirable non-conference losses from early in the year, falling to Virginia Commonwealth and Montana but both of those teams have gone on to have good seasons to soften the ratings hit for UCLA. The Bruins also lost to Villanova and Kansas but those losses will help the cause for UCLA’s tournament bid. The big chip that the Bruins have is a win over BYU in favorable but non-home setting in mid-December. The Bruins have three losses in Pac-10 play, losing once each to Washington and Arizona, and the third loss came at USC, a miss that is not nearly as damaging as the Oregon State loss that the Huskies and Wildcats have on the resume. When the committee looks at how UCLA is playing down the stretch, chances are they will like what they see in terms of the last ten or last 15 games. UCLA currently has won ten of the last eleven games and while the remaining schedule includes both Arizona and Washington again there is a good chance that UCLA can finish up strong even with a few tough road games. UCLA has been playing dominant defense of late and the Bruins will be a tough first round match-up for many teams with that intensity and this is a team that no one will want to see in a likely 8-9 or 7-10 opening round match-up, especially if the Bruins draw a western venue.

Washington State looks like the only other team to make a case for inclusion with a 17-9 record on the season while sitting alone in fourth place in the conference at 7-7. The Cougars do not have any particularly bad losses to inferior teams and wins over Gonzaga and Baylor will help the cause. The Cougars have a very difficult remaining schedule so it seems unlikely that Washington State will get the finish it needs to be a sure tournament team but with few standout teams on the bubble, one solid upset down the stretch and a decent conference tournament run might be enough. Washington State has not been consistent enough to be considered a serious threat to do damage in the NCAA tournament but this is a team that plays a unique style and is rarely blown out so they may be in position to give the Pac-10 even more credibility with the right match-up. With some of the bigger conferences looking at a high number of seeds including double-digits for the Big East the Pac-10 may not get a lot of respect entering the tournament but the teams that enter the postseason will be viable threats to win multiple games in late March.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-19-2011, 10:07 AM

Illinois at Michigan St.

February 19, 2011

There will be plenty of tension in the air tonight at Breslin Center, where Michigan State will take on Illinois in a crucial Big Ten contest for a pair of bubble teams.

Michigan St. (14-11 straight up, 8-16 against the spread) has been the nation’s most disappointing team this year. The Spartans began the season as a top-five squad, yet they find themselves at 6-7 in Big Ten play and needing to make a strong push over the next three weeks in order to get invited to the NCAA Tournament.

Tom Izzo’s team had lost nine in a row ATS until taking the cash in its last two outings. MSU stroked Penn St. to snap the nine-game slide two Thursdays ago, capturing a 75-57 win over the Nittany Lions as 6 ½-point home favorites.

The Spartans couldn’t pull a big upset Tuesday at Ohio St., but they did cover the number as 12-point underdogs in a 71-61 loss that was closer than the final score indicated. In the losing effort, Kalin Lucas had 14 points and five assists.

Illinois (17-9 SU, 13-13 ATS) had lost six of its last nine games to fall to .500 in Big Ten play before collecting a 54-52 win Wednesday against Michigan. The Wolverines, who comfortably took the cash as 9 ½-point road underdogs, had a pair of 3-point attempts for the win on the final possession. But those shots, including one at the buzzer, were off the mark.

The win improved Bruce Weber’s team to 7-6 in league play. Demetri McCamey scored 18 points to pace the winners.

The Wynn opened Michigan St. as a two-point home favorite. A few offshores started the total at 136 ½ late Friday afternoon.

MSU has won 10 of its 12 home games in East Lansing, but it is just 4-7 ATS at Breslin Center. Meanwhile, Illinois is 2-1 ATS in three road games as an underdog.

When these rivals met in Champaign-Urbana on Jan. 18, Illinois won a 71-62 decision as a four-point home favorite. Brandon Paul scored a game-high 20 points for the Illini, while McCamey finished with 15 points and 11 assists. Lucas had a team-high 15 points in defeat.

Illinois has covered the spread in three straight head-to-head meetings against Michigan St., winning outright in the last two encounters. The ‘under’ is 8-2 in the last 10 games between these Big Ten rivals.

The ‘under’ is 14-10 overall for the Spartans, 6-5 in their home outings. The ‘over’ is 13-12 overall for Illinois.

Tip-off is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--The best BracketBuster matchup will be on ESPN2 at 9:00 p.m. Eastern, featuring Utah State going on the road to face Saint Mary’s. The Gaels, who opened as 3 ½-point home favorites at one offshore shop, are coming off their worst performance of the season in a loss at San Diego as 17-point favorites. Both squads would most likely sew up an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament with a victory.

--Pitt will take its 24-2 record and five-game winning streak into New York City to battle St. John’s at Madison Square Garden on ESPN at noon Eastern. The Wynn opened the Panthers as 3 ½-point road favorites. The Red Storm has won five of its last six games with four of those victories coming in underdog spots.

--Georgia might need a win more than any team in the country Saturday. The Dawgs lost at the buzzer when they played a nail-biter with Tennessee in Athens earlier this year. UGA had Vandy on the ropes for 35 minutes Wednesday night at Stegeman Coliseum, only to go the last 10 minutes without a single basket from the floor in a 64-56 loss. The Wynn opened the Vols as 4 ½-point home favorites. CBS will have regional television coverage at 1:00 p.m. Eastern.

--The other one o’clock game on CBS is Notre Dame at West Virginia. The Wynn opened the Mountaineers as 3 ½-point home favorites.

--Like Georgia, Boston College sure could use a win Saturday afternoon at North Carolina. The Wynn opened UNC as a 12-point home favorite. ESPN will provide television coverage at 4:00 p.m. Eastern.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-19-2011, 10:09 AM

Saturday's Early Hoops

February 18, 2011

Some people don’t think there is anything to do this weekend in gambling with the NBA on its All-Star break. Of course, these are the people that can’t see the forest for all of the trees…or some other nonsense of that sort. But they’ll have plenty to bet on for Saturday on the college hardwood. Add in the fact that bubble teams are playing for their tournament lives and you have some compelling bets to make.

We’ll initially turn our attention on Madison Square Garden at 12:00 p.m. EST on ESPN as the Red Storm play host to Big East power Pittsburgh (24-2 straight up, 11-10 against the spread).

St. John’s (16-9 SU, 11-13 ATS) isn’t really a team in danger of missing out on the big dance. Steve Lavin’s first team in Queens has picked up wins against Notre Dame, Duke, Connecticut and West Virginia. And they’re 4-5 against ranked teams this season. It doesn’t hurt that Lavin has nine seniors to lean on in his first year running the team.

The Johnnies have been playing some of their best ball right now. They’re riding a three-game SU and ATS win streak, highlighted by wins over the Huskies and Golden Eagles. These weren’t just wins over UConn and Marquette, they were dominations. It also doesn’t hurt that your hitting 80 percent of your free throws during this win streak…especially since the team is at 71 percent from the charity stripe on the year.

The Panthers aren’t exactly playing for peanuts in this game either as they have a strong shot at a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. Pitt has reeled off five straight wins, covering in three of them, since a 56-51 loss at home to the Fighting Irish. Not a bad run considering that they’ve been without Ashton Gibbs for the last three games of that streak.

Pittsburgh does have the benefit of winning five straight games versus the Red Storm. And it doesn’t hurt that the Cats have covered the number in all of those past five meetings. The ‘over’ is 3-2 in that stretch as well.

St. John’s is 4-2 SU and 3-3 in its last six Big East games at MSG this season. The ‘under’ has gone 4-2 during that time.

After we get finished up in the Big Apple, we’ll focus on the happening in Tempe as the Sun Devils play host to the Cougars.

If I were to say that Washington State (17-9 SU, 13-10-1 ATS) still had a shot at making the field of 68, you’d say I was swimming in absinthe. But the Cougs are benefitting from a very soft bubble to play their way back into the race.

One look at how Wazzu has performed recently and you have to wonder how they’re still in the mix. This is a team that has lost four of its last seven games, failing to cover the number in five of those contests. The most recent setback coming in a 79-70 decision for the Cougars as 8 ½-point road pups on Thursday night. Klay Thompson did his level best to get his team from Pullman the win by scoring a game-high 30 points. It’s just his luck that only Reggie Moore (10) and DeAngelo Casto (14) were the only other Cougars to score double-digits.

Washington State is still in the pool of teams to make the NCAA tournament because they have some quality wins. They beat Baylor when they were ranked 15th in the AP Poll and beat hated rival Washington, who was ranked No. 18 at the time. The loss on Thursday to Arizona is not a bad one as they’re the best team in the Pac-10, which goes well with the 63-58 loss to K-State in December. But the main selling point for the Cougs is that they won a head-to-head battle against Gonzaga, who is in serious danger of missing out on the big dance.

The Cougars do have the benefit of taking on a hapless Arizona State (9-16 SU, 7-15-1 ATS) side that is just plain ugly to watch. The Sun Devils have dropped nine straight games SU and covered the spread four times in that stretch.

There is not much going for ASU at this point. They have lost the rebounding battle in every game they’ve played in the Pac-10. Herb Sendek’s is allowing the opposition to hit 45.6 percent from the field, which is good enough to rank 8th in the league through Thursday’s games. And the Sun Devils are 314th nationally from the free throw line, draining just 62.4 percent of their shots.

The head-to-head history is seriously tilted towards the Cougs, going 7-2 SU and 5-4 ATS in this stretch. The ‘under’ is 5-4 during this set as well. This info includes Wazzu’s 78-61 win as a 10-point home “chalk” on Jan. 20. The Cougars hit 52 percent from the field in that game, while the Sun Devils shot 33 percent.

Arizona State is a great fade team when it comes to hosting Pac-10 foes. The Sun Devils have gone 0-6 SU and 1-4-1 ATS during six league foes coming to Tempe this season. The ‘under’ is 3-2-1 in that timeframe.

As bad as the Sun Devils are at home in conference games, Washington State has no room to talk this season. The Cougars are currently posting a 2-5 SU and 2-4-1 ATS record away from home in league tests. The ‘under’ has gone 4-3 in that stretch.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-19-2011, 10:13 AM

Eastern Conference Notes

Isn’t there an old joke about going to a fight and a hockey game broke out? That seemed to be the case again between the Islanders and Penguins. Outside of that, the top of the Eastern Conference is holding steady. However, we are starting to see a drop off on contenders to take the eighth and final spot in the playoff standings right now. Let’s take a look at the teams.

(Straight Up, Puck Line, Over-Under)

1: Philadelphia (36-13-5, 29-25, 23-31)

The Week That Was: The Flyers are getting close to machine status when it comes to wins. Philly went 2-0 last week, covering the puck line once. And gamblers looking for an ‘under’ team should be hitting them up as they’re on a four-game streak with low scores at the time of publication.

The Week That Is: Philadelphia has a busy week ahead of itself with four games on the schedule. They open up with a home date on Sunday afternoon with the Kings. After that contest, they’ll embark on a four-game road trip that will see them go to the Lightning (2/15), Panthers (2/16), Hurricanes (2/18) and Rangers (2/20).

2: Tampa Bay (34-17-5, 28-28, 31-24-1)

The Week That Was: Another winning week at the St. Pete Times Forum for the Lightning, who went 2-1. The offense put up four goals in their games against the Blues, Sabres and ‘Canes. However, the defense is a concern as they allowed 13 goals in those tests.

The Week That Is: Tampa Bay will get a great indicator for its Stanley Cup chances this week with the Flyers and Red Wings coming to town on Tuesday and Thursday. That could lead up to a let down spot at home against the Panthers on Saturday.

3: Boston (31-17-7, 31-24, 19-28-8)

The Week That Was: Boston had no problem getting into the boxing spirit last week with an 8-6 literal slugfest win at home against the Habs. It’s too bad that they gave up momentum from that game two nights later in a 6-1 beating at the hands of the Red Wings.

The Week That Is: The Bruins will get a chance for redemption against Detroit at Joe Louis Arena on Sunday afternoon. They’ll go home for a quick meeting with Toronto on Tuesday evening. After that is a seven-game roadie for the B’s that will have them in Long Island (2/17) and Ottawa (2/18) this week.

4: Pittsburgh (35-18-4, 27-30, 20-35-2)

The Week That Was: The injuries are definitely playing a part in the slide of the Penguins after losing three of four games last week. The one plus though is they are showing a lot of fight in the literal sense. Just make sure you don’t piss off backup goalie Brent Johnson.

The Week That Is: Pittsburgh will stay on the road this week with trips against the Blueshirts (2/13), Avs (2/16) and Blackhawks (2/20). This is probably going to be the only week we’re going to see for the rest of February that the Pens have a good chance at winning.

5: Washington (29-17-10, 19-37, 15-40-1)

The Week That Was: The Capitals opened up with such a nice 3-0 win over Pittsburgh. But that was just a brief respite from their defensive woes. Washington lost to the Sharks and Kings by a combined score of 6-1. Perhaps this is like the start of a Winter Classic jinx since the Pens are playing awful as well.

The Week That Is: Alex Ovechkin and the rest of the Capitals are on the west coast for three games of a five-game roadie. They’ll head to Phoenix on Valentine’s Day, with Anaheim and San Jose on back-to-back nights. Washington makes it back to the east coast on Sunday with a game against the Sabres.

6: Montreal (31-20-6, 27-30, 18-30-9)

The Week That Was: The Canadiens haven’t looked like a playoff team recently with a defense that is porous. That was the main culprit in a three-game slide that started for them last week. But Montreal did close out with a 3-0 win over the Leafs as a heavy $1.50 home favorite.

The Week That Is: Montreal will play host to the Sabres on Tuesday night, which can help them knock down a potential playoff foe. A three-game roadie going through Western Canada will get kicked off this week. It will start in Edmonton on Thursday and then go to Calgary on Sunday.

7: New York Rangers (29-24-4, 28-29, 19-34-4)

The Week That Was: John Tortorella is close to going all Hulk on the Rangers, and how could you blame him? They lost to the Wings and Thrashers last week to bring their skid to six games. And now they are just two points ahead of eighth place at the time of publication.

The Week That Is: There is a possibility that the Blueshirts get things going this week with a game on Sunday against the M.A.S.H. unit known as the Penguins on Sunday afternoon. The Kings will be at MSG on Thursday night, which is anyone’s guess. After that is a road test against New Jersey on Friday before going home for Feb. 20 game against the Flyers.

8: Carolina (26-22-8, 34-22, 29-26-1)

The Week That Was: Carolina did its level best to move down a peg in the standings, but still sit in eighth place. But you can be sure that they won’t be there next week if they play like they did in an 0-3 run like the Hurricanes had against New Jersey, Philly and Tampa Bay.

The Week That Is: The Hurricanes will get a chance to give a little breathing room for themselves on Sunday with a road game against Atlanta. Three nights later will be a test with a much more formidable New Jersey side in Newark. After that is a Friday date at home with the Flyers, then the Devils come to town the next night.

9: Atlanta (25-22-10, 28-29, 30-26-1)

The Week That Was: The Thrashers couldn’t make much noise as road pups last week with losses to Carolina (4-3) and Toronto (5-4). But they did snap their four-game slide with a 3-2 decision at home against the slumping Blueshirts.

The Week That Is: Carolina comes to town on Sunday afternoon for a very important game in terms of playoff positioning. Then they’ll head out on an odd three-game trek that takes the Hurricanes to Phoenix on Thursday and Edmonton Saturday, with Buffalo coming on Feb. 23.

10: Buffalo (26-22-5, 27-26, 28-23-2)

The Week That Was: The Sunshine Skate is normally absolute murder for the Sabres. Yet they took advantage of an awful 22 minutes against the Lightning and Tomas Vokoun’s standard lousy goal to escape with wins on both occasions. That stretch has put Buffalo as the last team in the Eastern Conference with a shot at making the playoffs, in my opinion.

The Week That Is: Five games are on the slate over the next week for Buffalo. It starts out on Sunday afternoon by hosting the Isles. A quick Tuesday visit to Montreal will give way to a home date the following night against Toronto. They’ll follow that up with St. Louis and Washington coming to town on Friday and next Sunday.

11: Florida (23-24-7, 28-26, 20-29-5)

The Week That Was: Another week and another deal of heartbreak for the Panthers. They had the lead against the Blues and Sabres, but wound up losing both by a goal. Florida has been gone 6-12 in its last 18 games decided by one goal.

The Week That Is: The Cats play host to San Jose (2/13), Philadelphia (2/16) and Detroit (2/18). After that is four-game roadie that opens Saturday at Tampa Bay. I hope Pete DeBoer has freshened up his resume.

12: Toronto (23-27-6, 21-35, 25-29-2)

The Week That Was: The Maple Leafs were all about offense to open up last week, with five goals in wins against Atlanta and at the Isles. Their last two games saw them score just one goal as they lost to New Jersey and at Montreal.

The Week That Is: Road meetings with the Bruins and Sabres are on the slate for Tuesday and Wednesday night, which is not an easy trek for any team. They’ll close out the week with a home battle with the Senators.

13: New Jersey (22-30-4, 22-34, 19-29-8)

The Week That Was: Nobody wants to take on the Devils right now as they went 4-0 last week. Even more impressive is they’re doing it without Martin Brodeur in goal. Backup netminder Johan Hedberg went 3-0 with a 1.32 goals against average in last week’s matches.

The Week That Is: New Jersey has a favorable schedule again this week as they try to play catch up in the Eastern Conference standings. They have the Hurricanes (2/16) and Rangers (2/18) coming to the Prudential Center, then face those same ‘Canes on no rest in Raleigh.

14: New York Islanders (19-29-7, 35-20, 30-23-2)

The Week That Was: If we learned anything last week it is not to f*#$ with the Islanders. They took a tough loss at home to the Leafs, but rebounded with a shootout win at Montreal two nights later. But that 9-3 win at home against the Penguins reminded of something you’d see from “Slap Shot.” They just needed a random Hanson brother out there to pull off some high quality goonery.

The Week That Is: New York will be without Trevor Gillies (nine games) and Matt Martin (four games) after getting banned by the NHL for their roles in the beatdown of the Pens. That’s not going to be good with road games in Buffalo on Sunday afternoon and Ottawa two days later. It won’t get easier at Nassau Coliseum as the Bruins (2/17) and Kings (2/19) come to town.

15: Ottawa (18-30-8, 25-31, 25-29-2)

The Week That Was: Praise the lord and pass the poutine, the Senators have won a game. Ottawa’s 5-3 road win over the Oilers snapped an 11-game losing skid. At least the Sens didn’t snap their ‘over’ streak, which is now at five games at the present.

The Week That Is: Ottawa will be getting a chance to put together two straight wins for the first time in Christmas when they host the Islanders on Tuesday night. It gets tougher after that with a home test against the Bruins on Friday and a road test the following day in Toronto.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-19-2011, 10:15 AM

Western Conference Notes

While the Central and Northwest Divisions are pretty much set in stone with Detroit and Vancouver atop the standings. The Pacific Division, on the other hand, is just starting to get interesting. All five teams are within four points of one another. Yeah, it’s just another week in the Western Conference.

(Straight Up, Puck Line, Over-Under)

1: Vancouver (36-12-9, 27-30, 29-26-2)

The Week That Was: There wasn’t a lot of value in taking the Canucks last week as they went 2-2. They cashed in as at least -200 faves against the Sens and Flames at home. But they took a tough one on the chine at GM Place against Anaheim and 3-2 at St. Louis.

The Week That Is: Vancouver stays out on the road on Tuesday with a versus the Wild. Then they’ll hit Nashville on Thursday to meet up with the Predators. And a home date with the Stars on Saturday will let the Canucks dictate who could be in the playoffs.

2: Detroit (34-16-6, 29-28, 31-26)

The Week That Was: Another profitable week for the Wings last week. They went 3-1 with a win over the Blueshirts at Joe Louis Arena and swept a home-and-home against the Bruins. You can almost forgive them for getting waxed 4-1 at home to the Predators.

The Week That Is: A three-game roadie is in store for the Red Wings this week. They’ll be pulling off the dreaded Sunshine Skate, hitting Tampa Bay on Thursday and getting Florida the following evening. After that is a long trip up to Minnesota for a game on Sunday afternoon.

3: Phoenix (30-19-9, 31-27, 32-24-2)

The Week That Was: Phoenix grabbed the lead in the Pacific Division after ripping off four wins in as many games last week. That includes some wins at Dallas and at home against Chicago and Washington.

The Week That Is: There is a good chance that the Coyotes will stay in third place in the Western Conference after this week’s games. They are hosting the Thrashers on Thursday night, who are in a bit of a freefall. And then they head to Nashville on Saturday, who is starting to play a little sloppy.

4: Dallas (31-19-6, 27-29, 26-30)

The Week That Was: The wheels are beginning to fall off of the Stars’ wagon right now. They dropped two of three games, beating only Chicago on home ice. Dallas has gone 2-7 in its last nine games as the time of publication.

The Week That Is: A trip to Western Canada is in store for Dallas this week. They’re taking on the Oilers (2/15) and Flames (2/16) on consecutive nights, then they’ll get to Vancouver on Saturday.

5: Anaheim (32-21-4, 32-25, 24-31-2)

The Week That Was: The Ducks are definitely on the upswing right now after winning all three of their games last week to Western Canada. And they brought back Francois Beauchemin from Toronto to give them a better blueline presence.

The Week That Is: There is plenty of reason to think that Anaheim will be hot on the Coyotes’ heels with this week’s schedule. They get the sluggish Caps at the Honda Center on Wednesday. And then they’ll go on a quick two-game trip to Minnesota on Friday and St. Louis the next night.

6: Nashville (30-19-7, 31-20, 18-27-6)

The Week That Is: It’s not like the Preds had a bad week, they just had teams around them have great records to fall down a few spots. Nashville picked up a great 4-1 win at Detroit and held tough against the Avs. But that 4-0 home loss to the Oilers was very surprising.

The Week That Is: Nashville stays at Bridgestone Arena this week with three games on tap. They aren’t easy tests either as they’ll face the Sharks (2/15), Canucks (2/17) and Coyotes (2/19).

7: San Jose (30-21-6, 23-24, 29-27-1)

The Week That Was: Last week opened so well for the Sharks, having dispatched the Caps and Blue Jackets. Yet they had two tough losses at New Jersey and Florida to keep a precarious hold on a playoff spot.

The Week That Is: A roadie against the Predators on Tuesday night is huge in a battle for sixth place in the standings. But also have the Capitals looking for revenge at HP Pavilion on Thursday. San Jose closes up the week with a very winnable game at home with the Avalanche on Saturday.

8: Calgary (29-22-8, 37-22, 29-27-3)

The Week That Was: The Flames are holding onto the final playoff spot by a thread. That’s a strange thing to say considering they’re 3-2 in their last five games. And Calgary has covered the puck line in four of those five games to make us some money.

The Week That Is: Calgary will try to push up a little on the standings this week with the Stars (2/16) and Habs (2/20) coming to the Scotiabank Saddledome.

9: Minnesota (30-20-5, 31-24, 23-27-5)

The Week That Is: Minnesota might be on the outside of the postseason at the moment, but they are getting the love of the betting public. How can they not be backed at the moment after winning against Colorado and completing a home-and-home sweep of St. Louis.

The Week That Was: The Wild have a gauntlet to run this week to stay on pace for the postseason. It starts at home on Tuesday night with the Canucks coming to town and go to Chicago the next night to play the ‘Hawks. After that is a Friday battle against the Ducks at home with the Wings coming to town on Sunday afternoon.

10: Los Angeles (31-22-3, 29-27, 19-35-2)

The Week That Was: The Grammys taking over the Staples Center has turned out to be the best thing for the Kings. Los Angeles went 2-1 last week with wins against the Caps and Flyers. And the Kings are 4-2 through six road tests. Not bad for a team that had one hellish run during the middle of the season.

The Week That Is: Three of LA’s last four road matches on this trip happen this week. They’ll take on the Blue Jackets and Rangers on back-to-back nights on Wednesday and Thursday. The Islanders await them on Saturday evening.

11: Chicago (28-23-5, 24-32, 25-31)

The Week That Was: The Blackhawks aren’t playing like a champion right now, having lost three of their four games last week. Chicago finished up its road trip with a excruciatingly bad 2-4 mark.

The Week That Is: Chicago gets back home this week with the Wild (2/16), Jackets (2/18) and Pens (2/20) coming to the United Center.

12: Columbus (28-23-5, 28-28, 23-31-2)

The Week That Was: Don’t look now, but the Blue Jackets are starting to pull into the playoff race. Columbus picked up three great wins against the Stars, Avs and Penguins. And really should have beaten the Sharks at Nationwide Arena. All told, this team is 7-3 in its last 10 games.

The Week That is: Columbus has just two games on the docket for this week. They’ll be welcoming the Kings to town on Wednesday night before heading to Chicago on Friday.

13: St. Louis (25-21-9, 24-32, 26-28-2)

The Week That Was: The Blues might be banged up, but they still won two games and picked up a point in overtime of another in last week’s four matches. The did go 1-3 on the puck line though to make some bettors not give a damn.

The Week That Is: There are just two games left on this week’s schedule for St. Louis. The problem is that they will be in Buffalo on Friday night and back home the next night to host the Ducks. While that sounds like a tough test, remember that the Blues are 4-1 in their last five games this season on no rest.

14: Colorado (25-26-6, 26-32, 35-22-1)

The Week That Was: Joe Sacco might be getting coaching advice from Cory Clouston at the moment. Colorado has 10 of its last 11 games this season to jump off of the playoff ledge. They did at least have Peter Forsberg retire in an Avs sweater after a two-game comeback.

The Week That Is: We’re in luck with having the Avalanche to fade right now. They’re going to host Pittsburgh on Wednesday night, which can beat them up. San Jose will welcome them to Silicon Valley on Saturday.

15: Edmonton (16-32-8, 30-26, 27-28-1)

The Week That Was: Let’s see, did anything change for the Oilers last week? Well, they did pick up a 4-0 win at Nashville. But they pulled more of the same with three losses as well.

The Week That Is: Edmonton will be at home this week against the Stars (2/15), Canadiens (2/17) and Thrashers (2/19). Our fade point on the Oilers is against Montreal and Atlanta since they’re 1-3 at home against Eastern Conference teams.

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