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NCAA Odds: Arizona Wildcats host Cougars

The Washington State Cougars look to avenge a previous two-point loss when they tangle with the Arizona Wildcats this Thursday night for the second time in less than a month. This PAC-10 matchup from the McKale Center in Tucson tips off at 5:30 p.m. (PT). The game will be broadcast nationally on the FOX Sports Network.

Since losing to the Wildcats 65-63 on Jan.22 as a 2 ½-point home favorite, Washington State has been unable to gain any momentum in the conference with three wins and two losses in its last five games. The Cougars are coming off a 75-71 victory over California this past Saturday as a 6 ½-point home favorite, but they lost to Stanford 75-62 as an 8 ½-point home favorite last Thursday.

Washington State is now 17-8 straight-up overall and 13-9-1 against the spread. It is 3 ½-games behind Arizona with a 7-6 SU record in PAC-10 play.

Junior guard Klay Thompson has been the primary force for the Cougars this season with 20.6 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 4.2 assists a game. The supporting cast consists of junior forward DeAngelo Casto, who leads the team in rebounds with 6.4 a game and is averaging 11.2 points and junior guard Faisal Aden, who is second in scoring with 13.3 points a game.

Washington State is shooting 46.5 percent from the field and averaging 73 points a game. The Cougars are converting on 35.4 percent of their shots from three-point range and 69.5 percent of them from the foul line. They are ranked 192nd in the nation in rebounds with an average of just 34.8 a game.

Arizona continues to roll toward tournament time with nine victories in its last 10 games including a thrilling a 3OT 107-105 win over Cal on Feb.5 as a two-point road favorite and a 67-52 rout of Arizona State as a 4 ½-point road favorite this past Sunday. The Wildcats are 21-4 SU overall (14-8-1 ATS) and lead UCLA by one gamein the conference with a record of 10-2 SU.

The big man for Arizona this season has been sophomore forward Derrick Williams, who leads the team with 19.2 points and eight rebounds a game. Another sophomore, Lamont Jones is averaging 9.4 points and junior guard Kyle Fogg is averaging 8.6 points a game, but the continued success of this team lies squarely on William’s shoulders.

The Wildcats are averaging 78 points a game but have also been weak under the boards with just 35 rebounds a game. They are shooting 48.1 percent from the field and 40.8 percent from three-point range. Arizona has been especially effective from the free-throw line; converting on 74.4 percent of its attempts.

Washington State is 2-2 ATS in its last four games on the road and 2-4 ATS in its last six games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in three of its last five games.

Arizona is 2-3 ATS in its last five games at home but 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in four of its last five games.

Head-to-head, the Wildcats have won four if the last seven games SU including the two-point win earlier this season. The total has stayed ‘under’ in three of the last four games.

This time around Arizona should open as a four or five point favorite at home and as long as the line does not creep up any higher than that, remain a solid pick to complete the season sweep and cover the spread.

[StarDust Bum]

Temple, Richmond top Thursday NCAA betting

A trio of teams ruled the Atlantic 10 last season, eventually punching tickets to the Big Dance. The same three are on top of the conference standings once again, Xavier's 9-1 mark leading the way. Duquesne, the top A-10 team according to Ken Pomeroy, is trying to push its way into the role of party crasher with an 8-2 conference record that is currently fourth.

Between those two are the Temple Owls and Richmond Spiders, the two squads who eventually met for the 2010 A-10 Championship. Each school owns a 9-2 conference mark, and they'll break that tie Thursday night at Liacouras Center in Philadelphia (4 p.m. PT, CBS College Sports).

Both coaches bring their teams into the matchup running hot. Fran Dunphy and Temple (19-5 straight up, 14-10 against the spread) have come home victorious in their last six, an even 3-3 at the window. A 5-seed in last year's NCAA Tournament, the Owls have been hanging around at the bottom of the AP rankings the past two weeks and broke in at No. 25 in the latest coaches poll.

Chris Mooney's Spiders have won seven of their last eight, the lone defeat a poor 85-62 home effort against Xavier near the end of January. Seeded seventh in the South Regional a year ago, Richmond (20-6 SU, 12-11 ATS) is 10-3 away from home this season and has won all five of its A-10 road contests.

Richmond's most recent outing made both Spiders fans and bettors happy, a 64-52 home win over Saint Louis as 9½-point chalk. Six-ten senior Justin Harper led the way with a most effective 30 minutes of action. The team's leading scorer (18.0 ppg) was 7-of-9 from the field, 3-of-5 from outside, blocked four shots and grabbed nine rebounds in leading the Spiders with 22 points.

Harper could be primed for another big night if Temple has to play without Lavoy Allen. The 6-foot-9 senior missed the Owls' 75-63 win at Dayton last Saturday with an ankle injury and is questionable again for Thursday.

Ramone Moore stepped up big time for Temple in the victory over the Flyers. The local kid pasted a game-best 26 on his stats sheet, 11-of-13 from the line, and added nine rebounds. The Owls were three-point road favorites and it marked their third consecutive 'over' (131½).

It's been about 362 days since the teams last met, a 56-52 Temple win in the conference title tilt at Atlantic City. That contest pushed and stayed below the 116-point line. Richmond won and covered as two-point chalk in the regular season meeting at home, 71-54 (116½).

A lot of the same players yet different teams this year with scoring up on both ends of the court in their games. The Spiders are 11-9 'over' for the campaign, Temple 13-8. In addition to winning its last five on the A-10 highway, Richmond's conference games are 4-1 to the high side with the Owls' last five conference home tilts 4-1 'over.'

If Lavoy is out for Temple – and all signs point to that – expect Dunphy to try and slow things down a bit. He used just six players for 195 of the 200 court minutes in the win at Dayton and any early foul trouble for Michael Eric would be a huge setback since he's the biggest body to put on Richmond's Harper.

Temple could struggle to reach the low-to-mid 60s on their own unless someone like Juan Fernandez gets smoking hot from outside, something he hasn't done for the Owls so far this season. I'm liking a final score in the mid-to-upper 120s.

Temple will take a couple of days off following this game to prepare for Sunday's home tilt versus Saint Joseph's. The Spiders will return home to host St. Bonaventure the same day.

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Mavericks, Suns cap NBA betting doubleheader

Dallas will be playing its second game in as many nights with Thursday’s road matchup against Phoenix.

The Mavericks are 38-16 straight up, 29-23-2 against the spread heading into Wednesday’s home contest with Sacramento. Dallas is currently entrenched in second place in the Southwest Division standings, and would be the second seed in the Western Conference if the regular season ended today.

Phoenix (27-26 SU, 23-28-2 ATS) would miss out on the playoffs if the season ended today. However the Suns have been playing better as of late, going 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS their last 10 games. This marks the last game for both teams before the upcoming All-Star break.

Dallas concluded a three-game road trip by beating Houston Saturday as one-point ‘chalk,’ 106-102. The combined 208 points eclipsed the 206 ½-point closing total, helping the ‘over’ improve to 6-1 the previous seven outings.

The Mavericks took control of the contest by outscoring the Rockets in the second quarter, 34-19, but almost lost after getting outscored in the fourth, 35-23. Dallas finished the game with advantages in rebounding, 42-38, and assists, 26-21. The Mavs shot a blistering 55 percent (43-of-78) from the field, and 53 percent (8-of-15) from behind the arc.

Dallas prevailed behind a balanced scoring attack, led by forward Dirk Nowitzki who had 22 points and six rebounds. Small forward Peja Stojakovic provided 22 and four in the victory, while forward Shawn Marion added 14 and nine.

Phoenix toppled Utah on Tuesday as a 4 ½-point home favorite, 102-101, while the combined 203 points failed to topple the 208-point closing total. The Suns have now seen the ‘under’ go 4-1 their last five games. Phoenix has failed to cover its past two performances.

The Suns trailed by eight points at one point in the fourth quarter, but prevailed after going on an 11-0 run. Phoenix shot a solid 49 percent (36-of-73) from the field and 41 percent (12-of-29) from 3-point land, helping the team overcome a rebounding deficit, 39-32.

Center Channing Frye stepped up with a career-high 31 points along with 11 rebounds, while veteran point guard Steve Nash produced 20 and 14 assists. Bench players Marcin Gortat (11 points, seven boards) and Mickael Pietrus (11 and four) were also instrumental in the victory.

The home team is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS the previous five meetings in the Dallas-Phoenix series. The Mavericks won the lone encounter this season Dec. 17 as a 7 ½-point home ‘chalk,’ 106-91, while the combined 197 points never seriously threatened the 212 ½-point closing total. The ‘under’ is 3-1 the previous four games in this series.

Dallas guard Jose Juan Barea (flu) and guard Rodrigue Beaubois (ankle) are ‘probable’ versus the Suns, while forward Caron Butler is ‘out’ for the rest of the season due to a knee injury. The Mavs are 11-4 ATS the previous 15 games against Pacific Division opponents.

Phoenix has seen the ‘over’ go 11-5 its last 16 outings versus Southwest Division teams. The Suns are 6-2 ATS their past eight Thursday games.

TNT will provide coverage of Thursday’s matchup beginning at 7:35 p.m. PT from Phoenix’s US Airways Center. A clash between the Bulls and Spurs opens TNT's evening telecastat 5 p.m. (PT).

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NHL Betting Preview: Detroit at Tampa Bay

The Tampa Bay Lightning and Detroit Red Wings will have more in common than sitting atop their respective divisions with an identical 74 points when the two clubs meet Thursday at St. Pete Times Forum.

Steve Yzerman was the captain of the Detroit Red Wings when the all-star forward led the club to three of its Stanley Cup titles. Yzerman is now bringing that same leadership to Tampa Bay in the general manager’s role, as his first-place club leads second-place Washington by six points.

The overnight line for this 4:30 p.m. (PT) contest has Detroit as a slight 110 road favorite. The total is set at 5 ½ ‘over’ (minus 140).

Despite injuries to forward Ryan Malone and defensemen Mike Lundin and Matt Smaby, the Lightning almost pulled off a come-from-behind victory in their most recent game against the Flyers on Tuesday night.

Tampa Bay trailed 3-1 in the second period before notching two goals within a 53-second span from Vinny Lecavalier and Teddy Purcell. The game eventually went into a seven-round shootout before Kimmo Timonen beat Tampa goalie Dwayne Roloson for the game-winner.

Roloson, who Yzerman acquired last month as netminding insurance for Dan Ellis, is now 9-5-0-1 with a 2.64 GAA, a .912 save percentage and four shutouts.

The Lightning, 1-for-4 with the man advantage in Tuesday’s loss, have now scored one power play goal in seven of their last eight games. The surge has lifted the club’s power play into fifth place with a 20.8 percent success rate. Tampa Bay is sixth in the league in overall offense, averaging 3.0 GPG.

Unfortunately, Tampa is also allowing 3.0 GPG, which ranks a poor 24th. The squad is yielding an average of 28.4 shots on goal per game, which is fourth most in the league.

Curiously, Tampa Bay is 17 games above .500 despite allowing one more goal than it has scored (176-175). The Bolts are 19-6-1-2 in 28 home dates, with the ‘over’ going 16-12. The ‘over’ is also 32-24-1 in their first 57 overall outings.

The Red Wings haven’t played since Sunday when they completed a home-and-home series sweep against the Bruins with a 4-2 victory as 115 home favorites. The Wings also registered a 6-1 win in last Friday’s game at Boston as 125 road underdogs.

Both games skipped above the closing total, leaving the ‘over’ 30-26 in Detroit’s first 56 contests. However, the ‘under’ is 15-12 in the club’s initial 27 road dates.

Jimmy Howard, who was between the pipes for both Detroit victories, is now 28-10-2-1 despite a less-than-impressive 2.82 GAA and .906 save percentage. The 27-year-old does have two shutouts.

Detroit’s defense, which ranks a poor 19th by allowing 2.9 GPG, should receive a huge boost Thursday when Brad Stuart returns. The big blue-liner missed 15 games after having his jaw broken from a blind-side hit during a Jan. 7 game against Calgary.

Offense continues to be of little concern for the men from the Motor City. The Wings are scoring an average of 3.3 GPG (2nd) and are sixth on the power play with a 20.5 percent success rate. They also average 33.2 shots on goal per game, which is third highest in the league.

Mike Babcock’s Wings, 17-8-1-1 away from Joe Louis Arena, are outscoring the opposition on the road by an average of 3.19 to 2.74.

This will be the lone meeting between the Wings and Lightning this season. Detroit has won the last four series matches, with the ‘over’ cashing on three occasions.

Tampa Bay continues its season-high 10-game homestand Saturday by hosting the Florida Panthers. The Wings’ next game will also be against the Panthers, but that will take place on Friday night in Florida.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Odds: Spurs, Bulls tip TNT doubleheader

Every single season, the San Antonio Spurs are forced onto their rodeo road trip, a trip that usually spans somewhere around 10 games. The trip is often hard and arduous, but has often proven successful.

Though there were a few shaky results on this year's trek, the team has gone 6-2 straight up and against the spread thus far in eight games and has easily preserved the best record in basketball.

That mark will be on the line in NBA betting action Thursday night at the United Center against the Chicago Bulls. Tip-off time is set for 5:00 p.m. (PT) on the final day before the All-Star break, and basketball wagering warriors can view the game live on TNT with the Mavericks and Suns capping the evening from Phoenix.

San Antonio became one of the few teams in the history of the league to win 46 of its first 55 games, and the mass majority of those teams have gone on to win the NBA Championship. Getting to 70 wins isn't out of the possibility, though head coach Gregg Popovich is clearly going to be more concerned about getting to 16 wins in the postseason than he is 70 in the regular season.

The numbers for San Antonio's stars are all seemingly middling, as Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker are down to 17.9 and 17.3 PPG respectively. However, thanks to a ton of well-rounded efforts that include getting at least 7.4 PPG from eight different players, the Spurs just aren't losing a beat.

As a team, the Spurs average 103.5 PPG, good enough to rank No. 6 in the league. You won't find a much more efficient team than this either, as San Antonio ranks No. 4 in field goal percentage (47.3%) and No. 2 in three point shooting percentage (39.5%).

This is one of these big time statement games for the Bulls to prove they are a legitimate contender in the Eastern Conference. Of course, all of the talk surrounding the at least remote possibility that Carmelo Anthony could be in town by the time the midseason hiatus is over will certainly have the Windy City buzzing. But it should be just as notable that the Bulls are about to be at full strength and are clicking on all cylinders.

Chicago took down its sixth straight home win and its third straight victory overall with a 106-94 win over the Charlotte Bobcats on Tuesday night in preparation for this one, and Joakim Noah is a matter of perhaps a couple of weeks away from getting back on the court. When that happens, it could be very scary for the rest of the NBA betting world, as Noah and Carlos Boozer are both averaging double-doubles per game, though the two have not really seen that much of the court together at the same time this year due to injuries to them both.

As always, we'll be keeping an eye on Derrick Rose as well. The 22-year-old has put up fantastic numbers this year, averaging 24.5 PPG, 8.2 APG and 4.4 RPG. He has scored at least 14 points in every game he has played since December 18, a remarkable run of games without a horrible off night mixed in.

The Spurs dominated when these two teams faced off in the Lone Star State in November, winning 103-94. It was a great win after two losses last season. Still, San Antonio is 6-2 ATS over the course of the last eight games played at United Center, and it hopes that this finale of the rodeo road trip will be one to remember

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Preview: Spurs (46-9) at Bulls (37-16)

Date: February 17, 2011 8:00 PM EDT

There's one last stop on the San Antonio Spurs' rodeo trip, which has done nothing to dispute their title as the NBA's best team heading into the All-Star break.

The Chicago Bulls might not be too far behind.

The Spurs try to close out their nine-game trip with a seventh victory Thursday night against the Bulls, who are looking for a 15th win in 16 games at the United Center.

San Antonio (46-9) hasn't lost consecutive games, has reeled off three winning streaks of at least eight games and has been the NBA's top road team at 21-7.

The Spurs opened their annual rodeo trip with a loss to Portland but have won six of seven since, with only a poor shooting effort Friday at Philadelphia slowing them down. San Antonio bounced back with a 24-point win at Washington a night later, then cruised past New Jersey 102-85 on Monday.

A victory Thursday would give the Spurs their most wins on the rodeo trip since the 2002-03 team wrapped up its nine-game journey with eight straight victories. That team went on to win the NBA title.

"They're feeling a few bumps and bruises, but they're character guys," coach Gregg Popovich said. "They're professionals, and they know what's expected of them. They know where they want to be at the end of the year and they're working towards that. So no game can be left without trying to get better."

That's an approach the Bulls (37-16) seem to be taking, and they're about to get another boost when center Joakim Noah returns from thumb surgery after the break.

They've been doing awfully well without him. Only the Spurs, at 21-5, have a better record than the Bulls' 19-6 mark since Dec. 26. Luol Deng paved the way to their ninth win in 11 games Tuesday night, scoring 24 points in a 106-94 victory over Charlotte.

Chicago has surrendered an average of 84.5 points in its last 15 games at the United Center.

"Guys are extremely confident," forward Carlos Boozer said. "We're a team - not just one guy, two guys, three guys; we're a group of guys. Everybody on this team, whether you're starting or off the bench, can play in the NBA and play well."

Boozer was still recovering from a broken right hand during Chicago's stop in San Antonio on Nov. 17, part of its annual circus trip, and the Bulls could have used him.

Tim Duncan had 16 points and 18 rebounds as San Antonio rallied from a 17-point first-half deficit to win 103-94. Taj Gibson, filling in for Boozer, missed all seven shots and didn't score.

Boozer dominated the Spurs last season with Utah, averaging 25.8 points and 11.3 rebounds in four wins.

"We're looking forward to playing them," Boozer told the Bulls' official website. "We've played other great teams during the season. It's another big game before the break gets here."

While the battle between Boozer and Duncan should be intriguing, DeJuan Blair might give the Spurs an edge in the paint - particularly with Noah out. The 6-foot-8 center has averaged 13.4 points and 11.0 boards on the road trip.

Two of the league's premier scoring point guards should provide an excellent matchup in the backcourt. Chicago's Derrick Rose scored 33 points in the first meeting, while San Antonio's Tony Parker had 21.

The Spurs, who have split their last four visits to Chicago, are 31-2 when Parker scores 17 points or more.

[noBETnoFUTURE]

lovin the spurs tommorow.... its a must prove game that their first half of the season isnt a fluke...

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Leaning to the BULLS Bradda.......

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NBA's best Spurs are 2-point underdog at Chicago


SAN ANTONIO SPURS (46-9)

at CHICAGO BULLS (37-16)


Tip-off: Thursday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Chicago -2, Total: 190

The Spurs are looking to end their nine-game rodeo road trip with an exclamation point but a streaking Bulls team has other plans.

San Antonio looks to finish off its best rodeo trip since winning eight of nine in 2002-03 when they won the NBA Championship. The Spurs have won six of eight on the road and have the NBA’s best road record SU (21-7) and second-best road mark ATS (19-8). They have easily solidified themselves as the NBA’s best team in the first half of the season notching a 46-9 record, which is 5.5 games better than the Eastern Conference-leading Celtics. Tony Parker (17.3 PPG) has been fantastic this year, and when he scores 17 points or more, the Spurs are 31-2. Playing at Chicago will definitely be a test considering the lesser competition San Antonio has faced on the road trip such as Sacramento, Detroit, Washington, New Jersey and Toronto.

Chicago is red hot at home, winning 14 of 15 SU (10-4-1 ATS) at the United Center. During those 15 games, Chicago, who is second in the NBA in defense (92.3 PPG allowed), has held opponents to 84.5 PPG. The Bulls are also extremely excited to get Joakim Noah back after the All-Star break. Taj Gibson (7.3 PPG, 5.7 RPG) has filled in for Noah on the defensive end, but hasn’t provided much scoring and rebounding help. Carlos Boozer has been terrific this year, averaging 19.4 points and 10.1 rebounds. Boozer sat out the last matchup against the Spurs with a broken hand and Tim Duncan took full advantage going for 16 points and 18 rebounds. Boozer tore apart the Spurs last year as a member of the Jazz, averaging 25.8 PPG and 11.3 RPG in four games. Also in the 103-94, Dec. 17 loss, Derrick Rose (24.5 PPG) dropped 33 points but only went to the free-throw stripe once. Rose must penetrate and not settle for jump shots for the Bulls to have a chance against the veteran Spurs.

San Antonio is the best in the NBA against the spread going 34-19 (64.2%). The Spurs are 5-1 ATS as an underdog and 13-6 ATS versus Eastern Conference teams. They also aren’t afraid of good teams, going 17-7 ATS against clubs with winning records. The Bulls aren’t too bad against the spread themselves, going 31-21 overall (fifth-best in NBA) and a league-best 17-10 ATS in home games. Chicago’s defense has been a big part of its recent success and playing a good offensive team may be exactly what they want. When the Bulls play a team that scores 99.0 PPG or more, they are 17-6 ATS. Chicago is certainly not afraid of Western Conference teams either going 16-7 ATS. The Spurs are always hard to bet against with their ATS trends, but I think the Bulls’ home success will continue with a victory Thursday night at the United Center. The FoxSheets provide two more reasons to play on Chicago:

CHICAGO is 18-8 ATS (69.2%, +9.2 Units) after playing a home game this season. The average score was CHICAGO 99.7, OPPONENT 88.2 - (Rating = 1*).

CHICAGO is 25-13 ATS (65.8%, +10.7 Units) after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CHICAGO 102.0, OPPONENT 97.3 - (Rating = 1*).

Ten of the past 14 meetings in Chicago have gone Under the total and the FoxSheets also side with the Under in this one.

CHICAGO is 12-1 UNDER (+10.9 Units) revenging a road loss vs. opponent this season. The average score was CHICAGO 92.1, OPPONENT 87.2 - (Rating = 3*).

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Suns host Mavericks in battle of red-hot teams


DALLAS MAVERICKS (39-16)

at PHOENIX SUNS (27-26)


Tip-off: Thursday, 10:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Phoenix -1, Total: 207

This chapter of the Suns-Mavs rivalry should be interesting, as both teams are playing some of their best basketball of the year entering the All-Star break

The Mavs seem to have fully adjusted to the loss of Caron Butler. Following a midseason swoon after Butler first went down for the season, they’ve rung off 12 wins in 13 games (9-3 ATS during that span). They’ve been outstanding on the offensive end, scoring 105.5 PPG and shooting 48.6% from the field during their recent hot streak. It’s been a balanced attack, with six players averaging double-digit points and Dirk Nowitzki leading the way with 20.0 PPG on 49.2% shooting. And now they’re getting more help.

The newest addition, long-range specialist Peja Stojakovic, has provided a spark since stepping into Butler’s old starting spot. He scored 22 in Houston on Saturday night and added 12 in a 116-100 win over the Kings Wednesday night, shooting a combined 13-for-23 from the field and 6-for-11 from three in those games. Dallas also got talented young combo guard Roddy Beaubois back from a foot injury for Wednesday night’s win. Beaubois pitched in 13 points, six assists and three steals in 21 minutes off the bench.

Dallas played at home against Sacramento Wednesday night, but the Mavs won’t be as worn down as they’d normally be in a back-to-back situation. Because of their new-found depth, no one on the roster played more than 28 minutes against the Kings, and Nowitzki played only 23 in the win. The Mavs have won three of their past four SU on the second night of a back-to-back, as well as three in a row ATS. Only the Spurs have a better road record than the Mavs, who are 18-8 SU on the road this year. Dallas has a 17-9 ATS record in road games, which ranks fourth in the league.

The Suns have been nearly as hot, winning seven of nine SU (6-3 ATS). Steve Nash has been playing at an elite level, handing out 12.7 APG during that span as five Phoenix players are averaging between 11 and 16 PPG. But they’ve mostly been getting it done with surprisingly strong defense. The Suns, typically one of the NBA’s weakest defensive teams in recent years, were allowing 107.9 PPG through their first 44 games, second-worst in the league. Over their past nine, they’ve allowed just 93.1 PPG and have forced opponents to 41.9% shooting from the field, second behind only Miami during that span.

Though while the Suns are playing better defense, part of their success has been due to opponents simply shooting it poorly from the outside. Opponents are hitting just 29.3% of their threes against the Suns during this recent hot streak, a number that simply isn’t sustainable. Golden State hit just 8-of-38 threes in their home-and-home with Phoenix, Milwaukee went 5-for-23 and even Boston hit just 2-of-18. The Mavs are particularly hot from behind the arc right now, hitting 41.4% of their threes over the past 10 games, and 48.5% over their past three. That’s why I like Dallas to come away with a road win Thursday night. The FoxSheets show a trend that, when the Mavericks get hot this year, they usually stay hot:

DALLAS is 16-4 ATS (80.0%, +11.6 Units) after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. The average score was DALLAS 100.6, OPPONENT 94.3 - (Rating = 3*).

Despite Phoenix’s recent defensive resurgence, these teams typically have good, old-fashioned shootouts when they meet in the desert (total has gone 228, 239, 218 in past three meetings). The FoxSheets have some trends pointing towards the Over, including this one:

Play Over - Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DALLAS) - after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite against opponent after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points. (49-20 since 1996, 71%, +27 units. Rating = 2*).

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Sizzling Lightning host Red Wings on Thursday


DETROIT RED WINGS (34-16-6, 74 pts)

at TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING (34-17-6, 74 pts)


Puck drops: Thursday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Tampa Bay -115, Detroit -105, Total: 5.5

Two of the best teams in the NHL and potential Stanley Cup Finals opponents will meet in Tampa Bay on Thursday as the Red Wings visit the Lightning. This is game number nine of the Lightning’s 12-game homestand.

Detroit enters Tampa winners of two straight and three of its past four games. The Red Wings offense has been their staple all season. Only Vancouver and Philadelphia have scored more goals than Detroit’s 185 this season. Todd Bertuzzi scored two goals in each of the Wings past two wins. He had just one goal in his previous 14 games played. Pavel Datsyuk has two goals and five points in his past three contests. This is also a special game for Detroit as their all-time leader in assists, Steve Yzerman, who worked in the Wings front office as VP and alternate governor since retiring in 2006, faces his old team. Yzerman left last May to become the Lightning’s VP and GM.

Tampa Bay has been one of the surprise teams in the NHL this season. Since joining the NHL in 1992-93, the Lightning have enjoyed very limited success. Despite winning the Stanley Cup in the 2003-04 season, Tampa has just one other playoff series win in their four other playoff appearances. The Lightning enter Thursday four points ahead of the Capitals for first in the Southeast Division and seven points behind the Flyers for first in the Eastern Conference. They are 8-2-1 in their past 11 games. Steven Stamkos leads the NHL in goals with 40, and in assists with 74. Martin St. Louis is fourth in the NHL with 67 points. Vincent Lecavalier has five goals and an assist during his current four-game points streak.

Detroit is still without center forward Mike Modano (wrist), goalie Chris Osgood (sports hernia surgery), and forward Valtteri Filppula (knee), but the Wings say defenseman Brad Stuart (fractured jaw) is expected back in the lineup. Lightning forward Ryan Malone (abdominal) and defenseman Mike Lundin (undisclosed) are out indefinitely, while center Nate Thompson (upper body) is listed as day-to-day.

The Red Wings have won five straight against the Eastern Conference and are 5-0-1 in their past six games against the Lightning. Detroit is only six points ahead of Nashville in the Central and this is the time of the season that the Wings start to get serious and prepare for the postseason (they were 17-3-2 after February 13 last season). I’m taking Detroit.

The FoxSheets also support picking the Red Wings with this trend:

DETROIT is 12-2 ATS (85.7%, +8.3 Units) after 3 straight games with 33 or more shots on goal over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DETROIT 3.0, OPPONENT 1.9 - (Rating = 1*).

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Penn State favored by 2 over Minnesota


MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS (17-8, 6-7 in Big Ten)

at PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS (13-11, 6-7 in Big Ten)


Tip-off: Thursday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Penn State -2, Total: 129.5

For teams like Penn State and Minnesota, we can skip the pleasantries and get right to the realities. The time for these teams to kick it into do-or-die, postseason-must-win mode is now. At 13-11, and 6-7 in the Big Ten, every game is a must-win game for the Nittany Lions, who despite playing the seventh toughest schedule in the nation, has an RPI that places them in the mid 60’s. As for Minnesota, Tubby Smith’s crew is 17-8, and also 6-7 in conference play. Recently they fell out of the Top 25, and just broke a four-game losing streak with a victory at Iowa on Sunday. Both of these teams are in need of a statement-making win streak, Penn State to keep its fading NCAA postseason hopes alive, Minnesota to strengthen its postseason hopes. Thursday night in Happy Valley, the Lions try to give the home fans something to really be happy about, a quality victory and a two-game winning streak in one swoop.

Penn State is coming off of a 65-41 home win Sunday over the Northwestern Wildcats. The victory was highlighted by the milestone performance of Talor Battle. The senior guard scored 19 points, putting him over 2,000 points for his career. Battle joined Wisconsin's Alando Tucker as the Big Ten's only 2,000-point scorers in the past decade. Tim Frazier had 12 points and Jeff Brooks (13.6 PPG, team-high 7.0 RPG) scored 14 in his first start since dislocating his right shoulder nearly two weeks ago. The victory snapped a brutal three-game stretch for the Nittany Lions, which saw them lose games on the road to Illinois and Michigan State, two teams it had previously defeated this season, by an average margin of 17.5 PPG. Sandwiched in between those losses was a painful 65-62 home defeat to Michigan, a game in which PSU squandered a brilliant 31-point, seven-rebound performance from Battle. Head coach Ed DeChellis is hoping that the return of Brooks can provide a lift during this stretch run. The Lions will probably need all the healthy bodies they can get, with a regular season schedule that after Thursday concludes with road games at Wisconsin, Northwestern and Minnesota, and home against Ohio State. The Nittany Lions are 5-2 at home in Big Ten play, with victories over three teams that were nationally ranked at the time.

Tubby Smith’s Golden Gopher crew avoided a fifth straight loss (and third straight road defeat) with a 62-45 road win Sunday at Iowa. Gophers forward Trevor Mbakwe exploded in the second half of the game to score 22 of his team-high 24 points. Rodney Williams also chipped in 13 points and a team-high seven rebounds for the Gophers, who ended the longest losing skid in the Smith era with the win. After allowing 71.5 PPG during the four-game losing streak, Minnesota turned up the defense against Iowa, forcing the Hawkeyes into a 34% shooting day, and just allowing one Iowa player (Bryce Cartwright, 11 points) to score in double figures. After Thursday night, the Gophers end the regular season with three of their last four at home in the friendly confines of Williams Arena. Last season these two teams met three times. Minnesota defeated Penn State by five in Williams Arena, before winning a two-point nail-biter in State College. The final meeting of last season was a 21-point blowout win for the Gophers in the Big Ten Tournament.

Penn State is just 4-7 SU, but holds a commanding 8-3 ATS edge in its past 11 home meetings with Minnesota. This season, the Lions are 7-5 ATS at home and 8-5 ATS in Big Ten play. The Gophers are 7-4 ATS on the road, but just 5-8 ATS in conference games, including 1-4 in their past five. This FoxSheets trend also likes Penn State as the pick here.

PENN STATE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game after 15+games over the last 3 seasons. The average score was PENN STATE 63.6, OPPONENT 66.1 - (Rating = 1*).

Twelve of the past 14 meetings in this series have finished Over the total and this highly-rated FoxSheets trend expects the Over to occur again on Thursday.

MINNESOTA is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) in road games after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MINNESOTA 69.0, OPPONENT 73.4 - (Rating = 3*).

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Arizona goes for 7 in a row hosting WSU


WASHINGTON STATE COUGARS (17-8, 7-6 in Pac-10)

at ARIZONA WILDCATS (21-4, 10-2 in Pac-10)


Tip-off: Thursday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Arizona -8.5, Total: 140.5

No. 12 Arizona looks to win its seventh straight game when it hosts Washington State on Thursday night.

The Wildcats defeated Arizona State, 67-52, on Sunday, despite shooting 40% (20-of-50) from the field and getting only 11 points from leading scorer Derrick Williams (19.2 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 63.7 FG%). Williams has scored in double figures in every game this season, but took only five shots versus the Sun Devils' zone defense. Kyle Fogg (8.6 PPG) had a career-high 26 points against ASU on 7-of-13 shooting, including 6-of-9 three-pointers. Lamont Jones, second on the team in scoring (9.4 PPG), was limited to just two points (0-for-6). He had averaged 19.0 PPG in his previous four contests. Arizona has won nine of its past 10 games, and its only loss during that stretch came at Washington, 85-68, on Jan. 20. The Wildcats, 18th in the nation in points (78.0 PPG) and 12th in field-goal percentage (48.1%), are averaging 79.4 PPG and shooting 50.1% in 13 home games this season. Arizona has scored at least 80 in its past three home contests at the McKale Center.

Washington State ranks seventh in the nation and tops in the Pac-10 in field-goal percentage defense (38.7%). The Cougars allow only 65.5 PPG and are coming off a 75-71 victory over California on Saturday. They're led by the conference's leading scorer in Klay Thompson (20.6 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 41.1% three-pointers), who had 13 points on 4-of-12 shooting versus the Golden Bears. Thompson is scoring just 11.5 points on 35.6% shooting in his past four games. Brock Motum (7.3 PPG) came off the bench to lead five Cougars in double-figures with 19 points. Faisal Aden (13.3 PPG) added 18, but shot just 5-of-14 from the floor and is just 10-for-39 (25.6%) in his past four games. Washington State is 4-4 on the road this season, which includes a 2-4 mark in Pac-10 games. The Cougars are 2-2 against teams that were ranked at the time they played them. They defeated Baylor (77-71) and Washington (87-80) and lost close calls to Kansas State (63-58) and Arizona (65-63).

Arizona holds a 52-16 advantage in the all-time series with Washington State and has won 45 of the past 51 games versus the Cougars. The two teams met in Pullman on Jan. 22, and the Wildcats escaped with a two-point win behind Williams' 17 points and 19 boards. Arizona hit only 36.8% of its field goals in that game (21-of-57), but outrebounded WSU, 40-30, to overcome an eight-point, second-half deficit. The Wildcats hold a 25-8 edge in games played in Tucson, but the Cougars are 10-3 ATS in these road meetings since 1997. In the past six games this season, WSU is 2-4 ATS while Arizona is a perfect 5-0-1 ATS. Both teams have a very similar ATS resume with the Wildcats 6-5 ATS in conference and 6-5 ATS at home, while Washington State is 6-6 ATS versus Pac-10 teams and 6-5 ATS on the road. But Arizona has this ATS trifecta in its favor -- 8-2 after ATS win, 8-4 on three-plus days rest and 12-6 as a favorite. It’s a tough pick here, but the ‘Cats are on too much of a roll to bet against and should win Thursday’s game by double digits. This FoxSheets trend also likes Arizona to win and cover on Thursday.

Play On - A favorite (ARIZONA) - a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against a good defensive team (63-67 PPG) after 15+ games, after allowing 55 points or less. (57-21 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.1%, +33.9 units. Rating = 3*).

The past six meetings in Tucson have finished Over the total and these two FoxSheets trends also side with the Over on Thursday.

WASHINGTON ST is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) in road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. The average score was WASHINGTON ST 71.8, OPPONENT 66.4 - (Rating = 2*).

ARIZONA is 13-3 OVER (+9.7 Units) in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 3 seasons. The average score was ARIZONA 80.8, OPPONENT 72.3 - (Rating = 2*).

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Thursday's Tips

February 17, 2011


Let’s begin our discussion of tonight’s card with a Big Ten showdown between Minnesota and Penn State in Happy Valley.

Minnesota (17-8 straight up, 11-14 against the spread) had lost four in a row both SU and ATS until going into Iowa City on Sunday and thumping the Hawkeyes by a 62-45 count as a 1 ½-point road favorite. Trevor Mbakwe was the catalyst in the win at Iowa, scoring a game-high 24 points.

Penn St. (13-11 SU, 10-9-1 ATS) also broke out of a funk of its own Sunday, ending a three-game slide both SU and ATS by trouncing Northwestern 65-41 as a two-point home ‘chalk.’ Talor Battle made 7-of-9 shots from the field en route to a game-high 19 points.

Ed DeChellis’s team has played its best basketball at home, compiling a 12-4 SU record to go with a 7-4-1 ATS mark. The ‘under’ is 12-8 overall for PSU, 9-3 in its home games.

As of early this morning, most books were listing PSU as a 2 1/2-point favorite with a total of 127 1/2. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

During the same time slot on ESPN2, North Carolina State will take on Clemson in Raleigh. The Wynn opened the Tigers as one-point favorites, but most books had them favored by 2 1/2 with a total of 132 1/2 early this morning.

Clemson (17-8 SU, 9-11-1 ATS) has won four of its last six games with both losses coming by four combined points, including Saturday’s 64-62 home loss to North Carolina as a two-point home favorite. In the losing effort, Demontez Stitt had 17 points, seven rebounds and three assists.

Time appears to be running out on the Sidney Lowe Era. Although the starting point guard on the 1983 national championship team (other four starters: Derrick Whittenberg, Thurl Bailey, Lorenzo Charles and Cozell McQueen; sixth man: Terry Gannon) has recruited well, the results simply haven’t been there on the court.

North Carolina State (13-11 SU, 8-12 ATS) has lost seven of its last nine games, although it did end an eight-game ATS losing streak in Sunday’s 80-55 win over Wake Forest as a 5 ½-point home favorite. Tracy Smith had 20 points and eight rebounds against the Demon Deacons, while C.J. Leslie added 19 points and eight boards.

When these ACC rivals met at Littlejohn Coliseum on Jan. 25, Clemson captured a 60-50 triumph as an eight-point home favorite. Stitt had 17 points, seven rebounds and four assists, while Jerai Grant produced a double-double with 14 points,11 boards and four blocked shots.

The ‘under’ is 13-8 overall for Clemson, cashing in five of its last six games.

Alabama is in first place in the SEC West, but that isn’t saying much this season. The Crimson Tide owns an 8-2 record in league play, leaving it four games ahead of the pack on the weak side of the conference.

LSU and Auburn are two of the SEC’s worst teams in the last quarter-century. The Bayou Bengals, 10-15 SU and 9-10-1 ATS, will take an 8-7 home record into tonight’s tilt against the Tide. They are 2-8 in SEC play.

When these teams met at Coleman Coliseum in Tuscaloosa on Jan. 29, Alabama (16-8 SU, 11-9 ATS) cruised to a 70-46 win as a 13 ½-point home favorite. JaMychal Green had 20 points and seven rebounds in just 23 minutes of playing time.

Anthony Grant’s squad has won 11 of its last 13 games, posting a 10-2 spread record in the process. The Tide is coming off a 74-64 win Saturday over Ole Miss as a 6 ½-point home ‘chalk.’ Green led the way with 15 points, six blocked shots, five rebounds and three steals.

The ‘under’ has cashed in five straight head-to-head meetings between these programs. Also, the 'under' has been an extremely lucrative investment in LSU games this year, going 15-5 overall and 8-2 in its home games.

As of early this morning, most books had ‘Bama favored by 9 ½ with a total of 121.

The last late-night option for gamblers is UCLA at Stanford. Fox Sports Net will provide television coverage at 10:30 p.m. Eastern.

As of early this morning, most spots had Stanford (13-11 SU, 11-11 ATS) as a one-point favorite with a total of 129. The Cardinal has won three of its last five games, going 4-1 ATS in the process. It is coming off Saturday’s 87-76 loss at Washington as a 14-point underdog.

Stanford is 10-3 SU and 7-4 ATS at home. The ‘under’ is 12-9-1 overall for the Cardinal, 6-4-1 in its home outings.

UCLA (18-7 SU, 11-13-1 ATS) is on fire with five straight wins and victories in nine of its last 10 games. The Bruins are coming off a 69-61 non-covering win Saturday over Oregon St., which took the money as a 12-point road underdog at Pauley Pavilion.

UCLA's Malcolm Lee scored a team-high 19 points in the win over the Beavers. Lee has scored in double figures in seven consecutive games.

The ‘over’ has hit in four straight games for Stanford, but the ‘under’ is in the midst of a 4-0 roll for UCLA.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Minnesota is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine games at Penn St. The ‘over’ is on a 6-1 run in the last seven head-to-head meetings between the Lions and Gophers.

--Georgia appears to be slipping and its chances of earning an at-large berth to the NCAA Tournament took a major hit last night. The Dawgs led Vandy by double digits in the second half, but they didn’t hit a shot from the field in the final 10 minutes. The Commodores rallied to collect a 64-56 win as three-point underdogs at Stegeman Coliseum.

--Xavier continues to dominate its A-10 competition, punishing St. Joe’s by 20 as an eight-point road favorite last night. I gave the Muskateers heavy consideration for my pick pack but decided not to pull the trigger unfortunately. Like I’ve been saying for weeks, there’s not a better point guard in America than Tu Holloway (As good? Maybe. Better? No way!).

--Wisconsin fell into a classic letdown spot last night after beating top-ranked Ohio St. on Saturday. We said as much in this space yesterday and backed Purdue for a winner in last night’s 70-62 win over the Badgers.

--Michigan had two potential game-winning 3-pointers on its last possession, but both fell off the mark in a 54-52 loss at Illinois. Nevertheless, the Wolverines hooked up their backers as 9 ½-point underdogs. They are now 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.

--UCF finally ended its 10-game ATS losing streak in last night’s 65-62 win at Tulane as a 1 ½-point road ‘chalk.’

--The biggest upset on Wednesday's board was the final game played. San Diego stunned Saint Mary's 74-66 as a 17-point home underdog. The Toreros' shocking victory hooked up money-line backers with a 13/1 payout (risk $100 to win $1,300) at the Las Vegas Hilton.

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Thursday's Totals to Watch

February 17, 2011

It seems to happen like clockwork in college hoops; numerous team "totals" trends endure for several weeks or even months. Indeed, they’re often more-pronounced than team pointspread streaks, and the 2010-11 campaign has been no different.

Following is a look at some of the more-prominent "over" and "under" trends on display for Thursday night’s college card...
Richmond at Temple...Fran Dunphy’s Owls are "over" 6-2-1 their last nine "totals" decisions.

Clemson at North Carolina State...The Tigers are "under" 4 of their last 5 outings.

Arkansas State at Louisiana-Lafayette...The Ragin’ Cajuns are "under" in their last four games.

South Alabama at North Texas...The not-so Mean Green are "over" 9-1-1 their last 11 "totals" decisions.

Western Kentucky at Arkansas-Little Rock...Despite going "under" in their last two games, the UALR Trojans are still "over" 10-2 their last 12 decisions.

Washington State at Arizona...Arizona trending "over"(4-0 last four) the last few weeks.

Washington at Arizona State...Both of these trending similarly in recent weeks, with the Huskies "over" 5-1 their last six and the Sun Devils "over" 5-2 their last seven.

Alabama at LSU...With LSU struggling so badly on the offensive end, it’s no wonder the Tigers are "under" 10-1 in their last 11 this season.

UL-Monroe at Denver...Conflicting trends, with the Warhawks "over" 10-3 in their last 13, while the host Pioneers are "under" 5 of their last 7.

Iowa at Northwestern...Note how the Hawkeyes have gone "under" in 7 of their last 9 games.

DePaul at Providence...The Blue Demons have been involved in some lively games lately, resulting in 6 "overs" in their last 8 outings.

Santa Clara at Gonzaga...Although these two blew way "over" in their game at the Leavey Center last month, both definitely trending "under" more often lately (Broncos "under" 7 of last 9, Zags "under" 5 of last 6 and 16 of last 21 this season).

San Francisco at Portland...It could be the early stages of an "over" trend for Portland (Pilots "over" their last three).

Southern Cal at California...Conflicting trends; SC "under" 11 of last 16, while Golden Bears "over" 10-2-1 their last 13.

UCLA at Stanford...More conflicting trends, with UCLA "under" 11 of its last 15 and Stanford "over" its last four.