The Bum's Wednesday's Best Bets NBA-NHL-NCAAB + PODS !

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Wednesday, February 16Game Score Status Pick Amount

Miami - 7:00 PM ET Miami -9 500
Toronto - Over 203.5 500

Washington - 7:00 PM ET Washington +11.5 500
Orlando - Over 201.5 500

New Jersey - 7:30 PM ET New Jersey +10.5 500
Boston - Under 185 500

Atlanta - 7:30 PM ET New York -2.5 500 ( NBA POD )
New York - Under 205.5 500

L.A. Lakers - 7:30 PM ET L.A. Lakers -11 500
Cleveland - Under 203 500

Indiana - 7:30 PM ET Indiana -1.5 500
Detroit - Under 197.5 500

L.A. Clippers - 8:00 PM ET Minnesota +1 500
Minnesota - Over 208.5 500

Philadelphia - 8:30 PM ET Philadelphia +4.5 500 ( NBA DOG )
Houston - Over 204.5 500

Sacramento - 8:30 PM ET Dallas -11 500
Dallas - Under 200 500

Denver - 9:00 PM ET Milwaukee -1.5 500
Milwaukee - Under 201 500

Golden State - 9:00 PM ET Golden State +5 500
Utah - Over 206.5 500

New Orleans - 10:00 PM ET Portland -5 500
Portland - Over 183 500



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NHL

Wednesday, February 16Game Score Status Pick Amout

Toronto - 7:00 PM ET Toronto +150 500
Buffalo - Over 5.5 500

Carolina - 7:00 PM ET New Jersey -140 500
New Jersey - Under 5 500

Los Angeles - 7:00 PM ET Columbus +106 500
Columbus - Over 5 500

Philadelphia - 7:30 PM ET Philadelphia -130 500
Florida - Over 5.5 500

Minnesota - 8:00 PM ET Minnesota +161 500
Chicago - Over 5.5 500

Pittsburgh - 9:00 PM ET Pittsburgh +115 500
Colorado - Under 5.5 500

Dallas - 9:30 PM ET Calgary -155 500
Calgary - Over 5.5 500

Washington - 10:00 PM ET Anaheim -114 500
Anaheim - Under 5.5 500



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NCAAB

Wednesday, February 16Game Score Status Pick Amount

Wisconsin - 6:30 PM ET Purdue -4 500
Purdue -

Georgia Southern - 7:00 PM ET Georgia Southern +17 500
Davidson -

Canisius - 7:00 PM ET Canisius -3.5 500
Niagara -

Rice - 7:00 PM ET Rice +8 500
Marshall -

Morehead St. - 7:00 PM ET Eastern Kentucky +1.5 500
Eastern Kentucky -

UAB - 7:00 PM ET Memphis -4 500
Memphis -

St. Peter's - 7:00 PM ET Siena -4 500
Siena -

Vanderbilt - 7:00 PM ET Georgia -3 500
Georgia -

South Florida - 7:00 PM ET Pittsburgh -17.5 500
Pittsburgh -

Louisville - 7:00 PM ET Louisville +2 500
Cincinnati -

Cleveland St. - 7:00 PM ET Wright St. -1.5 500
Wright St. -

Rider - 7:00 PM ET Loyola-Maryland -2 500
Loyola-Maryland -

Xavier - 7:00 PM ET St. Joseph's +8 500
St. Joseph's -

Iona - 7:00 PM ET Iona -12 500
Manhattan -

Youngstown St. - 7:00 PM ET Youngstown St. +10.5 500
Detroit -

South Carolina - 7:00 PM ET South Carolina +11.5 500
Tennessee -

Duke - 7:00 PM ET Virginia +13.5 500
Virginia -

Duquesne - 7:00 PM ET Duquesne -7 500
Massachusetts -

Eastern Michigan - 7:00 PM ET Central Michigan -3.5 500
Central Michigan -

Kent St. - 7:00 PM ET Kent St. -1.5 500
Miami (OH) -

Georgetown - 7:00 PM ET Georgetown +2.5 500
Connecticut -

Saint Louis - 7:00 PM ET St. Bonaventure -3 500
St. Bonaventure -

Dayton - 7:30 PM ET Charlotte +2 500
Charlotte -

Marist - 7:30 PM ET Marist +20.5 500
Fairfield -

Chattanooga - 7:30 PM ET Chattanooga +15 500
Georgia Tech -

Colorado St. - 8:00 PM ET Texas Christian +4 500
Texas Christian -

Iowa St. - 8:00 PM ET Texas A&M -11.5 500
Texas A&M -

Auburn - 8:00 PM ET Mississippi -13 500
Mississippi -

Central Florida - 8:00 PM ET Central Florida -1.5 500
Tulane -

Southern Methodist - 8:00 PM ET Southern Methodist +4 500
Houston -

Loyola-Chicago - 8:00 PM ET Loyola-Chicago -3 500
Illinois-Chicago -

Murray St. - 8:00 PM ET Murray St. -11 500
SE Missouri St. -

Valparaiso - 8:00 PM ET Wis.-Milwaukee -1.5 500
Wis.-Milwaukee -

Texas-El Paso - 8:00 PM ET Texas-El Paso +4 500
Southern Mississippi -

Wofford - 8:00 PM ET Samford +8.5 500
Samford -

East Carolina - 8:05 PM ET East Carolina +7.5 500
Tulsa -

Indiana St. - 8:05 PM ET Southern Illinois -1.5 500
Southern Illinois -

Illinois St. - 8:05 PM ET Illinois St. +9.5 500
Creighton -

Michigan - 8:30 PM ET Michigan +9 500
Illinois -

Eastern Washington - 8:35 PM ET Northern Arizona -12.5 500
Northern Arizona -

Nebraska - 9:00 PM ET Oklahoma +2 500
Oklahoma -

Wyoming - 9:00 PM ET Utah -7.5 500
Utah -

Oklahoma St. - 9:00 PM ET Texas -14.5 500
Texas - Under 129.5 500

Idaho State - 9:00 PM ET Montana -15 500
Montana -

Portland St. - 9:05 PM ET Portland St. +11.5 500
Weber St. -

CSU Northridge - 10:00 PM ET CSU Northridge +5.5 500
Cal Poly SLO

UC Riverside - 10:00 PM ET UC Riverside +13.5 500
Long Beach St. -

Cal St. Fullerton - 10:00 PM ET UC Santa Barbara -12 500
UC Santa Barbara -

UC Irvine - 10:00 PM ET Pacific -11 500
Pacific -

New Mexico - 10:30 PM ET San Diego St. -9.5 500
San Diego St. -

St. Mary's - 11:00 PM ET St. Mary's -16.5 500
San Diego -

Pepperdine - 11:00 PM ET Pepperdine +6 500
Loyola Marymount -

[StarDust Bum]

Pierce expects to play Wednesday vs. Nets


NEW JERSEY NETS (17-39)

at BOSTON CELTICS (39-14)


Tip-off: Wednesday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Boston -12, Total: 183.5

Boston is happy that Paul Pierce’s foot injury was only minor and he should be able to suit up Wednesday against the Nets.

The Nets hold one of the league’s worst road records being 4-24 SU (11-17 ATS). Their road luck isn’t looking any better when they play at Boston Wednesday. New Jersey has lost 14 of the past 15 meetings with Boston and their only win came last Feb. 27 when Pierce was sidelined with a thumb injury. Unfortunately for the Nets, Pierce is likely to play and Boston has been dominant at home (24-5 SU) (11-15 ATS). The Nets are second to last in the NBA in scoring (92.6 PPG) and Boston is first in the NBA in defense (91.4 PPG allowed). New Jersey is going to need a huge night out of their young center Brook Lopez (19.4 PPG). He only scored 11 points in Monday’s 102-85 loss to the Spurs, but sadly that was a team high.

With Ray Allen’s three-pointers record behind him, it’s back to business for the Celtics. Boston is tied for the best record in the Eastern Conference with Miami, but has swept the Heat in all three contests this year, including an 85-82 win in its last game Sunday. The last time these teams met Dec. 5, Boston stomped New Jersey at home 100-75. Nate Robinson (7.1 PPG) went 8-for-12 from the field and poured in 21 points. Rajon Rondo is coming in with his head high after a triple-double against the Heat. Rondo (11.0 PPG 12.3 APG 4.4 RPG) who doesn’t score much, had 11 points 10 rebounds and 10 assists in the victory. Boston hopes Paul Pierce (18.6 PPG) will shake off his dreadful night Sunday when he went 0-for-10 from the field and scored only one point.

Even though the Celtics have dominated the Nets by winning 14 of 15, the Nets have won six out of the past eight ATS. Boston has not been good covering big home spreads going 0-3 ATS this year and 8-23 ATS the past three seasons when it is favored by 9.5 to 12 points. The Nets, on the other hand, have been good when given 9.5 to 12 points (16-5 ATS last three seasons). It is unlikely that New Jersey will win, but I like them to keep its recent against the spread success going and cover getting a bundle of points. The FoxSheets give two more reasons to pick New Jersey:

Play Against - Favorites (BOSTON) - after scoring 90 points or less 3 straight games.(80-39 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.2%, +37.1 units. Rating = 3*).

Play On - Road underdogs of 10 or more points (NEW JERSEY) - after a game where they failed to cover the spread, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record. (126-72 over the last 5 seasons.) (63.6%, +46.8 units. Rating = 2*).

The FoxSheets also expect the game to finish Under the total.

Play Under - Home teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (BOSTON) - vs. division opponents, off an upset win as a home underdog. (51-23 since 1996.) (68.9%, +25.7 units. Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

Blazers go for 6 in a row hosting slumping Hornets


NEW ORLEANS HORNETS (33-24)

at PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS (31-24)


Tip-off: Wednesday, 10:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Portland -5, Total: 183

The schedule makers are doing the slumping Hornets no favors, sending them on the road for a second straight night to face a red-hot Blazers team.

The Hornets are 2-8 SU (1-9 ATS) in their past 10 games, including a loss at Golden State Tuesday night in which they faded badly after the first quarter (leading 32-22 after the first, they ended up losing 102-89). Chris Paul is in the midst of a four-game slump, averaging 12.5 PPG and shooting 31.3% from the field and 2-for-8 from three-point land over the past four games. The Hornets continue to be without Emeka Okafor, their best interior defender, which will be more of an issue considering how well Portland power forward LaMarcus Aldridge is playing of late.

Through eight February games, Aldridge is averaging 28.5 PPG on 55.9% shooting from the field. He’s getting to the line 8.5 times per game, where he’s shooting 85.3%. Because of his recent surge, the Blazers have barely missed their top player, Brandon Roy, who hasn’t played in two months because of knee problems. The Blazers have won five in a row SU, going 4-0-1 ATS during that span, despite playing four of those games on the road. While Aldridge does a lot of his damage in the mid-range game, he’s also become more confident in the low post. David West will struggle to handle him, and he won’t get much help from the likes of Aaron Gray, Jason Smith and David Andersen.

The good news for the Hornets is that they’ve beaten Portland twice this season, including a 19-point trouncing of the Blazers at the Rose Garden. But both of those games were back in November, when New Orleans was off to its red-hot start. Considering the Hornets are in the midst of another slump, and the fact that they’ve dropped their past three back-to-back back ends (SU and ATS), I like Portland Wednesday night. The FoxSheets point out some trends that also favor the Blazers, including this highly-rated trend:

Play Against - Underdogs (NEW ORLEANS) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against an average pressure defensive team (14.5-16.5 TO's). (82-40 over the last 5 seasons, 67.2%, +38 units. Rating = 3*).

The FoxSheets also show numerous trends pointing towards the Under, which has occurred 19 times in 29 road games (66%) for the Hornets:

NEW ORLEANS is 10-0 UNDER (+10.0 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points this season. The average score was NEW ORLEANS 92.7, OPPONENT 86.0 - (Rating = 4*).

[StarDust Bum]

Bosh returns to Toronto with red-hot Heat

MIAMI HEAT (40-15)

at TORONTO RAPTORS (15-40)


Tip-off: Wednesday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Miami -9, Total: 202

Chris Bosh will make his first visit to Toronto after leaving them to join the Heat in the offseason as Miami visits the Raptors on Wednesday.

Miami has won nine of its past 10 SU and defeated the Pacers 110-103 on Tuesday. The Heat are now 27-26 ATS on the season and 18-11 ATS on the road. They have won five of six both overall and ATS on the road. Dwyane Wade set a franchise record for most points in a half with 31 in their win over the Pacers and finished with 41 points. Wade had only averaged 19.0 PPG in his previous three games. Wade has scored at least 30 points in six of his past seven games against Toronto, averaging 32.7 PPG on 56 percent shooting over that span. LeBron James is averaging 30.5 PPG in two games against the Raptors this season, while Chris Bosh missed the last game against Toronto after scoring just 12 points in 22 minutes in their first meeting this season.

Toronto is 23-30 ATS this season and 11-16 ATS at home. The Raptors are 2-16 in their past 18 games SU and have lost 10 of their past 13 games ATS. Toronto is last in the NBA in FG percentage defense, allowing opponents to shoot 48.4 percent from the field, while Miami leads the league in this category at 42.6% FG allowed. Andrea Bargnani scored 27 points in the Raptors’ 98-93 win over the Clippers Sunday, and is averaging 25.0 PPG in his two games against the Heat this season.

Miami is 6-2 in its past eight games when favored by at least eight points and is 6-1 on the road this season when giving eight points or more. The Heat are 1-1 ATS this season against Toronto, but that loss was when Miami was still figuring who it was as a team in November. The Heat are hitting on all cylinders right now with the Big Three healthy, and I’m taking them minus the points. This FoxSheets trend also supports Miami as the pick:

Play Against - Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (TORONTO) - poor foul drawing team - attempting <=24 free throws/game, good shooting team - shooting >=46% on the season. (152-95 over the last 5 seasons.) (61.5%, +47.5 units. Rating = 2*).

Eight of the past nine meetings in this series have finished Over the total and this FoxSheets trend expects another high-scoring affair finishing Over the total.

MIAMI is 11-2 OVER (84.6%, +8.8 Units) in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season. The average score was MIAMI 105.8, OPPONENT 100.9 - (Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

Jazz try to stop home losing skid Wednesday


GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (25-29)

at UTAH JAZZ (31-25)


Tip-off: Wednesday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Utah -5, Total: 206.5

The Jazz are a team on the brink heading into their last game before the All-Star break. They’ve lost four in a row SU at home; they haven’t lost five straight home games since 1981-82. And they’ve dropped both their games (both to the Suns) since long-time head coach Jerry Sloan abruptly retired last week.

They’re banged up and coming off a loss in Phoenix Tuesday night. Forward Andrei Kirilenko (ankle), their top defender, and guard Raja Bell (calf) are both doubtful for Wednesday night. Point guard Deron Williams has been in a horrendous shooting slump (40.2% from the field, 20.7% from three) in six games since returning from a wrist injury. But taking on the Warriors at home could be good for what ails them. The Jazz have beaten Golden State SU in 11 of their past 12 matchups at Utah (including postseason), including a 7-4-1 ATS record during that span. Golden State is 6-18 SU away from home this year. The Warriors themselves are on the tail end of a back-to-back, playing in Oakland Tuesday night.

Warriors leading scorer Monta Ellis is battling a sore thumb and was less than his usual stellar self in Tuesday night’s win over the Hornets -- he scored 21 points (four below his average) on 7-of-20 shooting. Ellis has struggled shooting on the road all season, averaging 21.1 PPG on 41.8% FG and 29.7% shooting from three away from home (while averaging 28.4 PPG on 48.3% shooting from the field and 41.1% shooting from three at home).

The fact that both these teams are played Tuesday night in different cities makes this a very volatile matchup. But considering the fact that the Jazz are so banged up and the Warriors have built some confidence during a recent homestand, I think Golden State is ready to steal one on the road, or at least keep it close. As always, the FoxSheets have a bevy in information, including this tidbit that points towards a Warriors cover:

Play Against - Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTAH) - after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games. (53-25 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.9%, +25.5 units. Rating = 2*).

Seven of the past eight games in this series have gone Under the total and the FoxSheets also side with the Under in this one.

GOLDEN STATE is 21-6 UNDER (77.8%, +14.4 Units) in road games after having won 2 of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. The average score was GOLDEN STATE 101.5, OPPONENT 111.0 - (Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

Stoudemire expected back in lineup vs. Hawks


ATLANTA HAWKS (34-20)

at NEW YORK KNICKS (27-26)


Tip-off: Wednesday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Line: New York -2.5, Total: 205.5

The Atlanta Hawks visit Madison Square Garden on Wednesday in the final game for both teams before the All-Star break. Amar’e Stoudemire sat out the Knicks win over the Nets on Saturday but should return on Wednesday. The last time these two teams met on January 28 in Atlanta, the game featured a fight between the Knicks Shawne Williams and the Hawks Marvin Williams.

Atlanta is 25-29 ATS this season, but are 16-12 ATS on the road. The Hawks are 4-2 in their past six road games ATS. They defeated the Pistons in Detroit on Monday after losing home games to the Bobcats and 76ers. After making just 40 percent of their shots in those home losses, the Hawks recovered to shoot 56.5 percent against Detroit. Josh Smith scored 27 in the win against the Pistons and has now scored at least 27 points in three of his past four games averaging 25.0 PPG on 58.2% FG over that span. Smith scored 24 points and made 9-of-13 shots in the Hawks 111-102 over New York at Atlanta on January 28. Joe Johnson has really struggled over his past three games, averaging just 10.3 PPG, and scored just seven points on 3-of-15 shooting in his first visit to MSG this season, a game the Hawks won 99-90. Johnson did respond with a 34-point game in the Hawks win on January 28.

The Knicks are 32-19 ATS this season, one of six teams that have 30 wins ATS. They are just 13-12 ATS at home, but have won four straight ATS at home against Eastern Conference opponents. Stoudemire is averaging 25.5 PPG against the Hawks this season. After averaging just 11.2 PPG over his previous five games, Wilson Chandler scored a team-high 21 points in the Knicks win over the Nets on Saturday. Danilo Gallinari is averaging just 8.0 PPG on 5-of-14 shooting in his two games against Atlanta this season. He has been bothered by a knee injury, but expects to play Wednesday.

This might be the last game for some of these players in Knicks uniforms as the rumors of Carmelo Anthony coming to New York has as many as four Knicks possibly being moved. I like these players to come together and put up a strong effort Wednesday night. The Hawks have lost six straight ATS after an ATS win, which is another reason I’m taking New York. The FoxSheets supports the Knicks with this trend:

Play Against - Underdogs (ATLANTA) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against an average pressure defensive team (14.5-16.5 TO's). (56-22 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.8%, +31.8 units. Rating = 3*).

The FoxSheets also see this game finishing Under the total.

Play Under - All teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (ATLANTA) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better. (38-13 since 1996.) (74.5%, +23.7 units. Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Scuffling Nuggets visit Milwaukee Wednesday


DENVER NUGGETS (31-25)

at MILWAUKEE BUCKS (21-33)


Tip-off: Wednesday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Milwaukee -1.5, Total: 201

Carmelo Anthony could be playing his last game as a Nugget on Wednesday when Denver travels to Milwaukee to take on the Bucks. This is the final game for both teams before the All-Star break.

Denver is 24-30 ATS this season and 12-15 ATS on the road. The Nuggets have lost three straight and seven of their last 10 ATS. According to Anthony, he deserves a lot of praise for how he has handled the trade rumors that has him going to as many as three different teams. "I take my hat off to myself for dealing with all this stuff that's going on and still be able to go out there and play at the high level that I can play at. I really don't think an average person can walk in my shoes. I don't think that.”

While Anthony has averaged 29.0 PPG over his past 10 games, which includes a 50-point effort on February 7 against Houston, Denver has lost seven of those contests. The Nuggets enter play tied with Utah for seventh in the Western Conference just a half-game ahead of the ninth-place Memphis Grizzlies. A big reason for the Nuggets struggles recently has been the poor play of their defense. They are allowing opponents to shoot 48.8 percent and average 110.9 PPG over their past 10 games.

Milwaukee is 26-27 ATS this season and 12-12 at home. The Bucks offense has been awful all season. They enter Wednesday last in the NBA in FG Pct (42.5%) and last in scoring (91.4 PPG). After averaging just 7.8 PPG in his previous four games, Carlos Delfino has averaged 23.5 PPG over his past two games and scored a game-high 26 points in the Bucks win over the Clippers on Monday.

The Bucks are 0-7 both ATS and overall this season against the Northwest Division, and Denver is 19-8 ATS when playing Milwaukee since 1996. However, the Bucks are 4-1-1 ATS in the past six meetings, and Denver is all out of whack right now with the trade uncertainty. Until this situation with Anthony comes to an end, no matter how Anthony praises himself, the team will suffer. I’m taking Milwaukee. The FoxSheets give another reason to pick the Bucks to win and cover the small spread:

DENVER is 11-28 ATS (28.2%, -19.8 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DENVER 102.8, OPPONENT 106.7 - (Rating = 2*).