The Bum's Friday's Best Bets NBA-NHL-NCAAB!!

[StarDust Bum]

Trending: NBA 1-2-3 Days Rest


In last week’s column we broke down NBA teams with zero days rest. In this column we will focus on other rest periods of one, two and three-plus days. All numbers are through Wednesday, Feb. 9.

First we take a look at the entire league.

NBA Records Straight-Up
0 Days Rest: 175-203 (46%)
1 Day Rest: 431-378 (53%)
2 Days Rest: 113-137 (45%)
3+ Days Rest: 61-62 (50%)
As you can see here, SU winning percentages increase 7% for teams with a day of rest compared to the second half of back-to-back games. Having more than one day rest actually hurts teams, as there is a significant 8% drop-off from 1 Day Rest to 2 Days Rest, before increasing back to 50% for teams on 3+Days Rest.

Although neither conference has a SU winning record, West teams are superior to East teams in all of these scenarios.
NBA Records Straight-Up by Conference
Eastern Conference
0 Days Rest: 88-117 (43%)
1 Day Rest: 186-186 (50%)
2 Days Rest: 60-76 (44%)
3+ Days Rest: 30-36 (46%)

Western Conference
0 Days Rest: 87-86 (50%)
1 Day Rest: 245-192 (56%)
2 Days Rest: 53-61 (47%)
3+ Days Rest: 31-26 (54%)

In terms of ATS records, the outcomes are quite different.
NBA Records Against The Spread
0 Days Rest: 193-176 (52%)
1 Day Rest: 401-386 (51%)
2 Days Rest: 107-135 (44%)
3+ Days Rest: 59-63 (48%)
As you can see here, ATS winning percentages decrease as teams go from 0 Days Rest (52%) to 1 Day Rest (51%) to 2+ Days Rest (46%, 166-198).

The West is even more superior to the East (11%) in terms of ATS without rest, but the East has the 4% edge with 1 Day Rest .
NBA Records Against the Spread by Conference
Eastern Conference
0 Days Rest: 95-106 (47%)
1 Day Rest: 190-170 (53%)
2 Days Rest: 58-74 (44%)
3+ Days Rest: 32-34 (48%)

Western Conference
0 Days Rest: 98-70 (58%)
1 Day Rest: 211-216 (49%)
2 Days Rest: 49-61 (45%)
3+ Days Rest: 27-29 (48%)

To make sense of all this, we broke down each category by team to see if any trends stood out.

Best ATS Records with One Day Rest
Five teams are winning at least 60% ATS with one day rest.
Philadelphia 16-5 (76%)
Chicago 14-7 (67%)
San Antonio 18-9 (67%)
Charlotte 15-8 (65%)
Indiana 15-8 (65%)Four of these teams are in the East with the lone exception being the Spurs, who are good SU and ATS in just about any scenario you can think of.

Worst ATS Records with One Day Rest
Six teams are winning 41% ATS or less with one day rest.
Cleveland 6-12 (33%)
Sacramento 9-14 (39%)
New Orleans 13-19 (41%)
Washington 11-16 (41%)
New Jersey 12-17 (41%)
Toronto 12-17 (41%)

Four of these teams are in the East, and the Hornets are the only team above .500 SU on this list. This category has the biggest sample size of all the rest days, so it stands to reason that the four worst ATS teams in the NBA (Washington, Cleveland, Sacramento and Toronto) are all on this list.

Best ATS Records with 2+ Days of Rest
Because the sample size was so small for 3+ Days Rest, we combined it with 2 Days Rest to form this category. Five teams are winning at least 60% ATS with two or more days of rest.
New Orleans 7-2 (78%)
Boston 8-4 (67%)
Detroit 8-4 (67%)
New York 10-5 (67%)
Golden State 7-5 (64%)

It’s interesting to note that none of these five teams were among the elite with just one day of rest. New Orleans is the third-worst team with 1 Day Rest, but the best team with 2+ Days rest.

Worst ATS Records with 2+ Days of Rest
Seven teams are winning 31% ATS or less with one day rest.
Minnesota 2-8 (20%)
L.A. Lakers 2-7 (22%)
Atlanta 4-10 (29%)
Utah 3-7 (30%)
Miami 4-9 (31%)
Milwaukee 5-11 (31%)
Sacramento 5-11 (31%)

The percentages here are much lower due to the decrease in sample size. Sacramento is the only team to appear on both bottom lists of ATS records with 1 Day of Rest and with 2+ Days of Rest. We were very surprised to see two of the league’s elite in Miami and the L.A. Lakers making this list, especially because they are veteran teams who should welcome extra rest.

Finally, we looked at some Over/Under numbers, and we found some surprising results, especially with Denver and Detroit.

Highest Pct. of Games finishing OVER with 1 Day of Rest
Oklahoma City 20 Over, 10 Under (67%)
Denver 18-10 (64%)
Cleveland 12-7 (63%)

Highest Pct. of Games finishing UNDER with 1 Day of Rest
Chicago 15 Under, 6 Over (71%)
L.A. Lakers 23-11 (68%)
Indiana 16-9 (64%)

Highest Pct. of Games finishing OVER with 2+ Days of Rest
Detroit 9 Over, 3 Under (75%)
Golden State 8-3 (73%)
Miami 8-4 (67%)
Oklahoma City 8-4 (67%)

Highest Pct. of Games finishing UNDER with 2+ Days of Rest
Denver 8 Under, 1 Over (89%)
Milwaukee 12-4 (75%)
Charlotte 9-4 (69%)

[StarDust Bum]

Hornets try to stop losing skid visiting Orlando


NEW ORLEANS HORNETS (32-22)

at ORLANDO MAGIC (34-20)


Tip-off: Friday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Orlando -9, Total: 189.5

The banged-up New Orleans Hornets come into Friday’s game against the Magic looking to end a four-game losing streak. Orlando, on the other hand, has won three of four and would love to avenge a tough 92-89 overtime defeat in New Orleans Jan 12.

The Hornets are losers of six of seven (0-7 ATS), which includes four straight road defeats. New Orleans has been outstanding at home (20-7 SU), but subpar on the road (12-15 SU). The Hornets have been missing Emeka Okafor (oblique) and Trevor Ariza (ankle) for the past three games. Marcus Thornton (7.6 PPG) needs to play like he did last time against the Magic when he scored 22 points, including seven in overtime. Thornton, who has been a nice spark off the bench, went scoreless in the 103-101 loss at New Jersey on Wednesday. Chris Paul (16.5 PPG) is having an off year scoring the ball (18.9 PPG in career) and needs to be that scoring leader the Hornets are use to having. Paul is averaging 19.6 PPG and 9.8 APG in his past five meetings with Orlando.

The Orlando Magic ride into Friday’s game on the shoulders of their towering center Dwight Howard. Howard (22.5 PPG, 13.8 RPG) has averaged 25.5 PPG and 16.3 RPG the past four games, including 30 points and 17 boards in Wednesday’s 99-95 win at Philadelphia. Howard, who is a 58 percent free-throw shooter, went 14-of-19 (74%) Wednesday. For Orlando to remain tough at home (19-7 SU, 13-13 ATS, +10.2 scoring margin), Howard must assert himself on the glass against an undermanned frontcourt of the Hornets.

New Orleans has played well as an underdog this year (15-7 ATS) and is also 7-1 ATS against Southeast Division opponents. More importantly, the Hornets are 4-0 ATS in recent meetings against the Magic. The Magic who play tough at home, are only 7-13 ATS against teams with winning records and have not avenged losses well, going 6-9 ATS against teams who have previously beaten them. New Orleans will keep it very close and lose a thriller, but still cover getting all those points. These two FoxSheets trends also like the Hornets to cover on Friday night.

Play On - Underdogs (NEW ORLEANS) - after failing to cover the spread in 5 or more consecutive games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team.(38-16 since 1996.) (70.4%, +20.4 units. Rating = 2*).

ORLANDO is 4-15 ATS (21.1%, -12.5 Units) after playing a game as a road favorite this season. The average score was ORLANDO 98.0, OPPONENT 99.0 - (Rating = 2*).

The Hornets have the third-best scoring defense in the league (92.5 PPG) and 65% of their games this season have finished Under, including 67% on the road. This highly-rated FoxSheets trend also sides with the Under.

NEW ORLEANS is 14-2 UNDER (87.5%, +11.8 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season. The average score was NEW ORLEANS 92.2, OPPONENT 87.4 - (Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Spurs go for 5th straight road win visiting Philly


SAN ANTONIO SPURS (44-8)

at PHILADELPHIA 76ERS (24-28)


Tip-off: Friday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: San Antonio -3.5, Total: 198

The Spurs are settling in nicely on their annual Rodeo Road Trip.

After opening their nine-game road trip with an upset loss at Portland, San Antonio has rung off four straight wins. After beating the Lakers by a point in L.A., they easily dispatched Sacramento, Detroit and Toronto, winning each game by double-digits.

It’s not a surprise, considering the Spurs have been road warriors all year. Along with having the best overall record in the NBA, they have the top road record in the league (19-6 SU) and have the NBA’s second-best ATS road mark (17-7-1, 71%), bettered only New York. They’ve feasted on the Eastern Conference, going 15-3 SU and 11-5-2 ATS.

While leading scorer Manu Ginobili has been tamed so far during the Rodeo Road Trip (13.0 PPG on 37.5% shooting) and fading superstar Tim Duncan continues to see his minutes cut (12.2 PPG in 26.0 MPG) during the trip, second-year big man DeJuan Blair has emerged as a beast. He’s averaging 15.2 PPG and a team-high 10.2 RPG in the past five. He’s had double-doubles in three straight and five of six, including a monster 28-point, 11-rebound effort in Toronto on Wednesday night.

However, even with the Sixers’ struggles in recent years, the Spurs have always had trouble in Philly. They’ve dropped their last three at the Wells Fargo (formerly known as Wachovia) Center, SU and ATS, and by a wide margin (12 points last year, 22 points in January ’09 and 7 points in March ’08). Not only have they struggled defensively, but their guards have had some miserable times on the offensive end. Tony Parker shot 1-for-9, finishing with two points in 27 minutes last February, while Manu Ginobili had a 3-for-11 performance in Philly two seasons ago. As a team, they’ve shot 42.1% from the field and 28.6% from three in Philadelphia the past three seasons, their second-worst mark in any city for each category.

The Sixers have been up and down of late. After a strong run to close out January put them firmly in the Eastern Conference playoff picture, they’ve dropped two of three. While power forward Elton Brand has recaptured some of his old magic (21.0 PPG and 8.2 RPG over the past five), point guard Jrue Holiday is mired in a miserable shooting slump (7.4 PPG on 37.5% shooting in his past five games).

The teams met in San Antonio way back on Nov. 13, with the Spurs cruising to a 116-93 win in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score would indicate (San Antonio led 96-64 after three quarters before Philly closed the gap in garbage time). That day, Parker got into the lane at will (24 points on 10-of-13 shooting), as the Spurs’ starting five dominated, each one finishing with a plus-minus of +20 or better.

I think the Spurs will again be too much for the Sixers to handle. I like San Antonio to get over their Philadelphia woes Friday night. A four-star trend from the FoxSheets points the same way:

SAN ANTONIO is 25-7 ATS (78.1%, +17.3 Units) after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. The average score was SAN ANTONIO 104.1, OPPONENT 94.9 - (Rating = 4*).

Twelve of the past 14 meetings in Philadelphia have gone Over the total and this FoxSheets trend also predicts the game will finish Over the total.

Play Over - Road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, extremely tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 4 days. (56-27 since 1996.) (67.5%, +26.3 units. Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

Jazz host Suns in first game without Jerry Sloan


PHOENIX SUNS (25-25)

at UTAH JAZZ (31-23)


Tip-off: Friday, 10:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Utah -6.5, Total: 208.5

Things are going to take on a strange feel in Salt Lake Friday night, as the Jazz take the floor for the first time since head coach Jerry Sloan’s surprise resignation after 23 seasons with Utah. Tyrone Corbin takes over for Sloan, who left amid rumors of a rift with star point guard Deron Williams, although Williams insists he didn’t force Sloan out.

The Jazz have been uncharacteristically beatable at home this season. From 2007-08 to ’09-10, they won 82.9% of their home games SU. This year, they’re 12-16 ATS and 17-11 SU, the 11 losses already being their most at home in a season since 2004-05. They’ve dropped three home games in a row SU and ATS.

The Suns have scored three straight wins over the Jazz, including two in a row in Salt Lake. In October, the second game of the season for each team, Phoenix rode a balanced attack (six players in double figures, none with more than 18 points) to a 110-94 victory at EnergySolutions Arena.

This Phoenix team has a much different look after a series of trades, with Vince Carter, Marcin Gortat and Mickeal Pietrus in, and Jason Richardson and Hedo Turkoglu out. The Suns are 12-11 SU and ATS overall and 4-5 SU and ATS on the road with their revamped roster. They’ve played better of late, going 10-4 SU and ATS, including wins in five of their past six.

This one’s a tough call, but with the Jazz needing at least a slight adjustment period after the Sloan resignation, I like Phoenix to make it four in a row over Utah. A couple of trends from the FoxSheets look good for the Suns, including:

Play On - Underdogs (PHOENIX) - after beating the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games. (70-31 over the last 5 seasons, 69.3%, +35.9 units. Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Lakers try to beat Knicks for 8th straight time


LOS ANGELES LAKERS (37-16)

at NEW YORK KNICKS (26-25)


Tip-off: Friday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Los Angeles -3, Total: 211.5

The Lakers try to keep their road momentum going when they visit New York on Friday. L.A. has won four straight road games, including three on its current seven-game road trip. The Lakers have owned the Knicks recently with seven straight wins in the series by an average margin of victory of 9.9 PPG. The last meeting was the biggest blowout, a 109-87 L.A. triumph on Jan. 9.

The Lakers have beaten four quality teams during their road win streak (Denver, New Orleans, Memphis and Boston) by an average of 7.8 PPG. L.A. is riding high after a 92-86 win over the Celtics Thursday night. The Lakers out-shot Boston 48% to 40% and held a 47-36 rebounding advantage. Pau Gasol had 20 points (8-13 FG) and 10 rebounds, and is averaging 23.7 PPG (66% FG) and 9.7 RPG during the first three games of the current road trip. Kobe Bryant scored 20 second-half points against Boston and is averaging 24.4 PPG, 7.2 RPG and 7.2 APG in his past five games. Bryant is sure to stay hot against a Knicks team he has dominated in his career, especially at Madison Square Garden. During L.A.’s seven-game win streak over New York, Bryant is averaging 34.3 PPG on 50% FG with 6.6 RPG and 6.1 APG. His past seven visits to MSG have resulted in even better scoring numbers: 37.7 PPG, 50.3% FG, 45.5% three-pointers.

Starting with the Jan. 9 blowout loss in Los Angeles, New York is 5-11 SU (8-7-1 ATS) in its past 16 games. In their last contest Wednesday, the other L.A. team, the Clippers, led New York by as many as 20 points and won 116-108. The Clippers shot 55% from the floor, marking the fifth time in the past six games a New York opponent has made at least half their field-goal attempts. Knicks All-Star Amar’e Stoudemire was only 7-of-23 shooting in the previous meeting with the Lakers this season. In that game, Stoudemire was clotheslined by Ron Artest, who was charged with a flagrant foul. Stoudemire carries pedestrian numbers of 18.8 PPG on 43.7% FG in his past five seasons facing the Lakers, when he was with Phoenix.

The Lakers have played well on the road this year going 18-8 SU (14-12 ATS) while averaging 102.0 PPG. They are also 3-1 ATS in the second half of games on back-to-back nights. The Knicks are a mediocre home team going 14-11 SU (13-11-1 ATS) and allowing 106.5 PPG on 48% FG at MSG. With the way the two teams are playing recently combined with the Lakers dominance in the series, three points seems a small margin to expect L.A. to win by. The FoxSheets give two more reasons to pick Los Angeles to win and cover.

Play On - Road favorites (LA LAKERS) - average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defense (<=14.5 TO's) after 42+ games. (142-89 since 1996.) (61.5%, +44.1 units. Rating = 2*).

Phil Jackson is 33-14 ATS (70.2%, +17.6 Units) in road games vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of LA LAKERS. The average score was LA LAKERS 105.9, OPPONENT 102.7 - (Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Friday, February 11Game Score Status Pick Amount

New Jersey - 7:00 PM ET New Jersey +6.5 500
Charlotte - Under 187.5 500

San Antonio - 7:00 PM ET Philadelphia +3 500
Philadelphia - Under 195.5 500

Portland - 7:00 PM ET Portland -3 500
Toronto - Over 196.5 500

Minnesota - 7:00 PM ET Indiana -8.5 500
Indiana - Over 217.5 500

New Orleans - 7:00 PM ET New Orleans +9 500
Orlando - Over 192.5 500

L.A. Clippers - 7:30 PM ET Cleveland +4 500
Cleveland - Under 206.5 500

Miami - 7:30 PM ET Miami -8.5 500
Detroit - Under 190 500

L.A. Lakers - 8:00 PM ET New York +3 500
New York - Over 211.5 500

Milwaukee - 8:00 PM ET Memphis -5 500
Memphis - Under 181.5 500

Phoenix - 10:30 PM ET Phoenix +6 500 ( NBA POD )
Utah - Under 208.5 500



---------------------------------------------------------

NHL

Friday, February 11Game Score Status Pick Amount

Detroit - 7:00 PM ET Detroit +125 500
Boston - Over 5.5 500

San Jose - 7:00 PM ET San Jose -144 500
New Jersey - Over 5 500

Pittsburgh - 7:00 PM ET Pittsburgh -124 500
NY Islanders - Under 5.5 500

Colorado - 7:00 PM ET Columbus -132 500
Columbus - Under 5.5 500

NY Rangers - 7:30 PM ET NY Rangers +102 500
Atlanta - Under 5.5 500

Minnesota - 8:00 PM ET Minnesota +132 500
St. Louis - Over 5.5 500

Chicago - 8:30 PM ET Dallas -101 500
Dallas - Under 5.5 500

Anaheim - 9:00 PM ET Calgary -137 500
Calgary - Over 5.5 500



-----------------------------------------------------------

NCAAB

Friday, February 11Game Score Status Pick Amount

Yale - 7:00 PM ET Yale +11.5 500
Harvard - Under 133.5 500

Niagara - 7:00 PM ET Niagara +11 500
Loyola-Maryland - Over 136 500

Princeton - 7:00 PM ET Princeton -3 500
Columbia - Under 136.5 500


Brown - 7:00 PM ET Brown -1 500
Dartmouth - Under 131 500

North Florida - 7:00 PM ET North Florida -3 500
South Carolina Upstate - Over 127 500

Siena - 7:00 PM ET Iona -11.5 500
Iona - Over 146.5 500

Fairfield - 7:00 PM ET Fairfield -11 500
Manhattan - Over 121.5 500

Pennsylvania - 7:00 PM ET Cornell -3 500
Cornell - Over 134 500

Canisius - 7:00 PM ET Canisius +6.5 500
Rider - Over 142.5 500

Jacksonville - 7:00 PM ET East Tennessee St. -5 500
East Tennessee St. - Over 128.5 500

Chattanooga - 7:00 PM ET Chattanooga +9 500
Western Carolina - Over 145 500

St. Peter's - 7:30 PM ET St. Peter's -9 500
Marist - Under 122.5 500