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Thursday Fade Alert
February 10, 2011
Here’s a quick look at several "fade" candidates on Thursday’s night’s college hoops card. Teams listed in schedule order for tonight...
Michigan State...There is no argument that things have gone pear-shaped for the Spartans. Now the question is if Tom Izzo can somehow salvage something from what has become a wreck of a season in East Lansing. The raw numbers are troubling enough; five losses in the last six games, and nine consecutive point-spread defeats. One glaring reason why MSU has been stumbling is an inability to defend; the Spartans have recently allowed five straight foes to connect on better than 50% from the floor, including permitting Wisconsin to hit a scorching 59% in the Badgers’ Super Bowl Sunday 82-56 blowout win. Perimeter defense has been especially shoddy, causing Izzo to call out sr. Gs Durrell Summers & Kalin Lucas. This after G Korie Lucious was dismissed from the team in January. One possible change is for Izzo to use bigger lineups and try some zone looks on the stop end that might be able to camouflage the lack of depth on the perimeter. Nothing else seems to be working lately. Tonight: hosts Penn State
Illinois-Chicago...We should qualify this one a bit, because the Flames are not dropping every point-spread decision lately, as is Michigan State. Instead, UIC has actually covered 6 of its last 13 games, although it has lost 12 of those outright. Still, plenty more negatives than positives at the Circle, as the Flames have had trouble stretching enemy defenses while converting the fewest triples pg (4.2) in the Horizon League. Aside from G Robo Kreps, who tends to blow hot and cold beyond the arc (36.8%), no one else is a long-range threat, which tends to limit the space in which UIC can work when Kreps is not connecting. Which has made things difficult for new HC Howard Moore, a former Wisconsin assistant who imported Bo Ryan’s Badger "Swing" offense from Madison. But without enough perimeter marksmen, the Flames’ offense has struggled. And while Moore has also implemented Wisconsin’s man-to-man defensive system, the Flames have not been able to force many turnovers (only 110 of them through 25 games). Tonight: hosts Wisconsin-Green Bay
Louisiana-Monroe...It hasn’t been an easy ride in Monroe for new HC Keith Richard, formerly the boss at La Tech. The Warhawks have lost their last 6 and 10 of their last 12 straight up and have only covered 3 of their last 10 on the board against decidedly modest Sun Belt opposition. Richard has a severe depth problem at Monroe, which has often forced him to keep foul-plagued players on the floor when normal coaching strategy would dictate they take a seat. But that would mean Richard would have to be reaching into a thin bench, which he would like to avoid at all costs.Inconsistent work from the perimeter continues to haunt the Warhawks as well; former Kansas State transfer G Fred "Downtown" Brown is very streaky, and that’s more than can be said for secondary long-range gunners G Hugh "Bingo" Mingo (31.2% beyond arc) and F Lawrence Gilbert (27% treys). ULM has exceeded 67 points just once in its last nine games, making it difficult to outscore anyone. Tonight: hosts Arkansas State
UC Santa Barbara...Most Big West observers expected the Gauchos to successfully defend their conference tourney title and return to the Big Dance (where they lost to Ohio State in the first round a year ago). All starters returned from a year ago, so expectations were high. And maybe UCSB can still return to the Big Dance, but it is burning a hole in the pockets of its backers along the way, dropping its last six spread decisions. Recent back-to-back home losses to Cal State Northridge and Pacific, and a narrow escape at the Thunderdome in overtime vs. UC Davis, last Saturday, confirm the choppy waters in which UCSB now navigates. Coach Bob Williams has been openly critical of his team’s lax defense, which has been torched repeatedly in recent weeks (Pacific hit 10 of 15 triples in the first half alone of the Tigers’ recent win). The recent nail-biter vs. Davis was another indictment of the defense, allowing the Aggies to hit 55% from the floor and hit 11 of 18 from beyond the arc. UCSB still has enough firepower to outscore foe if jr. G Orlando Johnson (20.7) finds a nice groove (as he did when scoring 39 to bail out the Gauchos vs. Davis), but unless that shoddy defense shapes up in a hurry, UCSB will probably continue to offer poor value. Tonight: at UC Riverside
Southern Cal... Are the Trojans tuning out HC Kevin O’Neill? We mention it because it has happened before to the peripatetic O’Neill’s teams at a variety of stops in his long and winding coaching career. The quirky O’Neill can still develop a sound defensive game plan capable of taking opponents out of their offensive rhythm, but too often his teams perform haphazardly on attack. And that’s what seems to be happening to this season’s Trojans, who have seemed to lose their bearings on offense after a series of impressive efforts in December that included shock wins at Texas and Tennessee and a near-upset of Kansas at Lawrence. Fordham transfer G Jio Fontan, who was scoring nearly 15 ppg for a while after becoming eligible in December, has cooled considerably and has been held scoreless in two of the last three games. O’Neill has also moved Fontan to the PG spot in order to take some pressure off 5'7 frosh Maurice Jones. SC’s problems at the moment are on offense, where the Trojans are scoring just 64.5 ppg in Pac-10 play and shooting a conference-worst 61% from the free throw line, underlining the team’s lost confidence in a streak that has seen SC win only 2 of its last 7 games, and cover but one of those. Tonight: hosts Oregon State
Loyola-Marymount...It hasn’t been an easy ride lately for the Lions under wild man HC Max Good, as LMU has lost 7 of its last 8 straight up and dropped 5 of its last 6 and 8 of its last 11 vs. The number. Remember, LMU was picked to finish second in the West Coast Conference, but instead is now ties for the basement in the league after becoming woeful USD’s first conference victim last week. Recurring injuries have been an issue; the latest casualty has been F Drew Viney, who missed the Feb. 5 game vs. Saint Mary’s with a migraine and remains doubtful for this weekend’s action. Good has only played three games this season with all of four of last year’s returning starters available, and has been forced to use 11 different starting combinations along the way. Meanwhile, sr. G Vernon Teel, and all-WCC selection last season when he scored 15.4 ppg, has been held to single digits in six of his last eight games. Good seems to be looking to the future (an act of bravery, perhaps, assuming he will be on the sidelines next season) by starting three true freshmen (G Anthony Ireland and Fs Godwin Okonji and Ayodeji Egbeyemi) within the last week. Good will also be crossing his fingers that his Lions can shoot better than the 27% from the floor they delivered in an earlier 20-point loss to tonight’s foe Gonzaga. Tonight: hosts Gonzaga
February 10, 2011
Here’s a quick look at several "fade" candidates on Thursday’s night’s college hoops card. Teams listed in schedule order for tonight...
Michigan State...There is no argument that things have gone pear-shaped for the Spartans. Now the question is if Tom Izzo can somehow salvage something from what has become a wreck of a season in East Lansing. The raw numbers are troubling enough; five losses in the last six games, and nine consecutive point-spread defeats. One glaring reason why MSU has been stumbling is an inability to defend; the Spartans have recently allowed five straight foes to connect on better than 50% from the floor, including permitting Wisconsin to hit a scorching 59% in the Badgers’ Super Bowl Sunday 82-56 blowout win. Perimeter defense has been especially shoddy, causing Izzo to call out sr. Gs Durrell Summers & Kalin Lucas. This after G Korie Lucious was dismissed from the team in January. One possible change is for Izzo to use bigger lineups and try some zone looks on the stop end that might be able to camouflage the lack of depth on the perimeter. Nothing else seems to be working lately. Tonight: hosts Penn State
Illinois-Chicago...We should qualify this one a bit, because the Flames are not dropping every point-spread decision lately, as is Michigan State. Instead, UIC has actually covered 6 of its last 13 games, although it has lost 12 of those outright. Still, plenty more negatives than positives at the Circle, as the Flames have had trouble stretching enemy defenses while converting the fewest triples pg (4.2) in the Horizon League. Aside from G Robo Kreps, who tends to blow hot and cold beyond the arc (36.8%), no one else is a long-range threat, which tends to limit the space in which UIC can work when Kreps is not connecting. Which has made things difficult for new HC Howard Moore, a former Wisconsin assistant who imported Bo Ryan’s Badger "Swing" offense from Madison. But without enough perimeter marksmen, the Flames’ offense has struggled. And while Moore has also implemented Wisconsin’s man-to-man defensive system, the Flames have not been able to force many turnovers (only 110 of them through 25 games). Tonight: hosts Wisconsin-Green Bay
Louisiana-Monroe...It hasn’t been an easy ride in Monroe for new HC Keith Richard, formerly the boss at La Tech. The Warhawks have lost their last 6 and 10 of their last 12 straight up and have only covered 3 of their last 10 on the board against decidedly modest Sun Belt opposition. Richard has a severe depth problem at Monroe, which has often forced him to keep foul-plagued players on the floor when normal coaching strategy would dictate they take a seat. But that would mean Richard would have to be reaching into a thin bench, which he would like to avoid at all costs.Inconsistent work from the perimeter continues to haunt the Warhawks as well; former Kansas State transfer G Fred "Downtown" Brown is very streaky, and that’s more than can be said for secondary long-range gunners G Hugh "Bingo" Mingo (31.2% beyond arc) and F Lawrence Gilbert (27% treys). ULM has exceeded 67 points just once in its last nine games, making it difficult to outscore anyone. Tonight: hosts Arkansas State
UC Santa Barbara...Most Big West observers expected the Gauchos to successfully defend their conference tourney title and return to the Big Dance (where they lost to Ohio State in the first round a year ago). All starters returned from a year ago, so expectations were high. And maybe UCSB can still return to the Big Dance, but it is burning a hole in the pockets of its backers along the way, dropping its last six spread decisions. Recent back-to-back home losses to Cal State Northridge and Pacific, and a narrow escape at the Thunderdome in overtime vs. UC Davis, last Saturday, confirm the choppy waters in which UCSB now navigates. Coach Bob Williams has been openly critical of his team’s lax defense, which has been torched repeatedly in recent weeks (Pacific hit 10 of 15 triples in the first half alone of the Tigers’ recent win). The recent nail-biter vs. Davis was another indictment of the defense, allowing the Aggies to hit 55% from the floor and hit 11 of 18 from beyond the arc. UCSB still has enough firepower to outscore foe if jr. G Orlando Johnson (20.7) finds a nice groove (as he did when scoring 39 to bail out the Gauchos vs. Davis), but unless that shoddy defense shapes up in a hurry, UCSB will probably continue to offer poor value. Tonight: at UC Riverside
Southern Cal... Are the Trojans tuning out HC Kevin O’Neill? We mention it because it has happened before to the peripatetic O’Neill’s teams at a variety of stops in his long and winding coaching career. The quirky O’Neill can still develop a sound defensive game plan capable of taking opponents out of their offensive rhythm, but too often his teams perform haphazardly on attack. And that’s what seems to be happening to this season’s Trojans, who have seemed to lose their bearings on offense after a series of impressive efforts in December that included shock wins at Texas and Tennessee and a near-upset of Kansas at Lawrence. Fordham transfer G Jio Fontan, who was scoring nearly 15 ppg for a while after becoming eligible in December, has cooled considerably and has been held scoreless in two of the last three games. O’Neill has also moved Fontan to the PG spot in order to take some pressure off 5'7 frosh Maurice Jones. SC’s problems at the moment are on offense, where the Trojans are scoring just 64.5 ppg in Pac-10 play and shooting a conference-worst 61% from the free throw line, underlining the team’s lost confidence in a streak that has seen SC win only 2 of its last 7 games, and cover but one of those. Tonight: hosts Oregon State
Loyola-Marymount...It hasn’t been an easy ride lately for the Lions under wild man HC Max Good, as LMU has lost 7 of its last 8 straight up and dropped 5 of its last 6 and 8 of its last 11 vs. The number. Remember, LMU was picked to finish second in the West Coast Conference, but instead is now ties for the basement in the league after becoming woeful USD’s first conference victim last week. Recurring injuries have been an issue; the latest casualty has been F Drew Viney, who missed the Feb. 5 game vs. Saint Mary’s with a migraine and remains doubtful for this weekend’s action. Good has only played three games this season with all of four of last year’s returning starters available, and has been forced to use 11 different starting combinations along the way. Meanwhile, sr. G Vernon Teel, and all-WCC selection last season when he scored 15.4 ppg, has been held to single digits in six of his last eight games. Good seems to be looking to the future (an act of bravery, perhaps, assuming he will be on the sidelines next season) by starting three true freshmen (G Anthony Ireland and Fs Godwin Okonji and Ayodeji Egbeyemi) within the last week. Good will also be crossing his fingers that his Lions can shoot better than the 27% from the floor they delivered in an earlier 20-point loss to tonight’s foe Gonzaga. Tonight: hosts Gonzaga
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