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**StarDust Bum** · 02-06-2011, 11:51 PM

NCAA Betting Preview: Missouri at Kansas Jayhawks

It's currently a two-horse race in the Big 12 between the Kansas Jayhawks and Texas Longhorns. Sitting 2-3 in both of the latest sets of rankings, the Jayhawks and Longhorns appear destined to decide one of the regional No. 1 seeds for the NCAA Tournament with the two schools on a collision course for the Big 12 Conference Championship Game on March 12 in Kansas City.

Mike Anderson and his Missouri Tigers will try to at least throw a small fly in that ointment when they travel to Lawrence for Monday's hardwood Border War matchup with Kansas. Tip-off at Allen Fieldhouse is 6 p.m. (PT) with ESPN providing the broadcast.

Missouri (18-5 straight up, 9-9 against the spread) was listed No. 14-15 by the writers and coaches respectively, and should be down a notch or two in both polls following the 76-70 loss at Oklahoma State this past Wednesday. The defeat was the Tigers' second straight both on the floor and against the NCAA odds. Missouri was a slight two-point road favorite in Stillwater, and was a 7½-point underdog before that when Texas rolled past the Tigers, 71-58, in Austin on Jan. 29.

The Tigers rebounded for their fans and backers this past Saturday, pulling off an 89-73 home win over Colorado as 9½-point chalk. Anderson shook up his lineup with Kim English coming off the bench and the two Pressey siblings, Matt and Phil, both starting. The change proved successful with English posting a season-high 21 points, hitting three of his six long range shots and adding six rebounds in 24 minutes. Phil Pressey had five of Missouri's 15 steals with the Tigers forcing 23 overall Colorado turnovers.

The 89 points were more on par with Mizzou's 83.3 season mark, sixth in the nation, after the squad averaged just 64 per game in the two previous losses. The final marked the second consecutive 'over' for the Tigers who are 10-7 that direction on the season, 4-1 'over' in true road games.

Meanwhile in Lincoln this past Saturday, Kansas (22-1 SU, 11-10 ATS) pasted an 86-66 defeat on Nebraska. The Jayhawks, five-point road favorites, beat the Cornhuskers for a 17th-straight time thanks in part to Brady Morningstar's season-best 19 points. The senior guard never stepped inside the arc to shoot, going 5-of-7 from three-point land and adding four points from the line plus a team-high six assists.

The Morris Brothers, Markieff and Marcus, combined for 33 points and 1-of-13 shooting from the field. Markieff was a perfect 3-for-3 from long range with Kansas hitting at a 54.2 percent clip from outside the line, 55.6 percent overall on the day.

Saturday's triumph was the fourth straight for the Jayhawks since their lone defeat of the season to Texas on Jan. 22. Three of the four have been by 20 points or more, with Kansas cashing for its backers the last three. All four of the recent victories have jumped the total; the Jayhawks are 12-7 'over' on the season, 6-2 in Big 12 play.

Kansas has dominated this series that dates to the 19th century, winning 169 of the 263 battles. The Jayhawks are 87-33 in Lawrence, winning the last 11 at Allen Fieldhouse.

The Jayhawks currently are on a 3-0 stretch against Missouri, both SU and ATS. Bill Self's squad took the Tigers down twice last season, winning 84-65 as 12-point home chalk and 77-56 on the road in Columbia as a four-point favorite. Both games finished 'under' the total with the game in Lawrence just falling short of the 151-point line.

A rematch between the two schools is scheduled for the final Saturday of the regular season (March 5) in Columbia. In the more immediate future, Before we get to that Kansas takes four days off before hosting Iowa State this Saturday while Mizzou returns home to entertain Oklahoma the same day

**StarDust Bum** · 02-06-2011, 11:52 PM

Trail Blazers test Bulls' Monday NBA odds streak

The Chicago Bulls have gone 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine NBA betting battles played on Monday. That's a streak that they'll put on the line this week at Portland's Rose Garden where they will crack skulls with the Trail Blazers.

Tip-off is slated for 7:00 p.m. (PT) in this basketball wagering war, which can be seen on WGN or Cox Sports Northwest.

For as great as the Bulls have been this year, we have to remember that they are just a .500 team on the road. A 23-4 United Center record is the best home mark in the Eastern Conference (though the Boston Celtics can match the mark with a win on Sunday over the Orlando Magic), and it is a record that is only behind that of the San Antonio Spurs this season.

Thus far on this West Coast swing, head coach Tom Thibodeau and company have gone 1-1 both SU and against the NBA odds, winning at Staples Center against the Los Angeles Clippers, but losing to the Golden State Warriors, 101-90, in a bad showing on Saturday night.

The stars for this team really do shine on a regular basis. We know that this lineup will look a lot more intimidating once Joakim Noah gets back in the fold, but for the time being, throwing Luol Deng, Carlos Boozer and Derrick Rose out there at the same time in the starting five is pretty amazing. The three are combining to average 62.0 PPG this year, making them one of the highest scoring trios in the NBA.

Boozer is also a double-double per night man, averaging 10.2 boards per game.

As iffy as the Bulls have been on the road this year, the Blazers have been just as sharp at home. They took down the aforementioned Spurs just last week, 99-86, in a very impressive showing to move to 10 games above .500 here at home.

You can bet that Portland will be glad to have this one home game sandwiched between six road dates, especially since the first three games only yielded one win against the Cleveland Cavaliers (and who doesn't beat the Cavs at this point!).

In that win against Cleveland, Portland netted three scorers with at least 20 points on the day. Wesley Matthews was the high scorer for the game pouring in 31, while LaMarcus Aldridge (20) and Nicolas Batum (21) also reached the 20-point barrier.

Matthews is really coming on strong with the injured Brandon Roy out of the lineup, as he is now up to scoring 16.5 PPG this year. Aldridge is the team's leading scorer at 21.2 PPG and the second leading rebounder with 9.1 RPG.

Earlier this season, Portland lost to a significantly different looking Bulls team in Chicago, Chicago team, 110-98. The home team has won and covered three straight in this series. The Bulls haven't won a game here in Portland since 2007, and are just 5-11 SU here since the 1993-94 campaign. Seven of the last eight meetings have also gone past the 'total' as well.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-06-2011, 11:54 PM

Coyotes, Avalanche key Monday NHL odds clash

Two teams fighting for postseason slots in the Western Conference collide on the ice Monday night when Colorado (25-21-6-0) visits Phoenix (26-19-6-3).

The Avalanche presently reside four points out of the eighth and final playoff slot due to a recent slump. The Coyotes have dropped in the standings a bit the past 10 games, but are currently seventh in a tightly bunched bottom half of the postseason standings.

Colorado fell to 1-5 its past six performances after Saturday’s setback to Anaheim as 139 home ‘chalk,’ 3-0. The three goals failed to eclipse the 5 ½-goal closing total, ending a string of six straight ‘over’ outings.

The Avs surrendered a goal in the first period, and the Ducks concluded the scoring with a couple of third period tallies to put the contest out of reach. Colorado was also on the short end of faceoffs won (25-20) and shots on goal (29-25).

Phoenix had dropped back-to-back outings before skating past Minnesota Saturday as a 134 home favorite, 1-0. The lone goal never seriously threatened the NHL odds total, ending a string of five consecutive ‘over’ outings.

The Coyotes produced a stellar 41 shots on goal in the victory, while allowing 25. Phoenix also enjoyed an advantage in faceoffs won, 32-27, but didn’t light the lamp until the final period.

Taylor Pyatt helped the Coyotes score for the first time in 132 minutes when he one-timed it into the net on a feed from Sami Lepisto. Goaltender Ilya Bryzgalov recorded his fourth shutout of the season, marking his 20th shutout in his 300th career game. Phoenix had surrendered 11 straight goals before upending the Wild.

The Coyotes have beaten Colorado the past four meetings, including both outings this season on the road. Phoenix prevailed Jan. 6 as a 122 road underdog, 2-0, and Jan. 26 as a 134 road ‘dog, 5-2. The ‘under’ is 6-2 the previous eight outings in this series, while the home team is 7-3 the last 10 meetings.

Colorado center Ryan O’Reilly is ‘questionable’ versus the Coyotes due to a shoulder injury, while center Tomas Fleischmann (lung) is ‘out’ for the rest of the season. The Avs continue a four-game road trip versus Minnesota, Columbus and Nashville. Colorado is 17-5 its last 22 Monday games, while the ‘over’ is 18-7-1 the past 26 Monday matchups.

Phoenix defenseman Ed Jovanovski (upper body) is ‘questionable’ against the Avs, while defenseman David Schlemko (upper body) is expected to miss the next week of action. The Coyotes travel to Dallas for their next game before returning home to host Chicago, Washington and Atlanta. Phoenix is a solid 21-8 its previous 29 games against Northwest Division opponents. The ‘over’ is 11-2 for the Coyotes their last 13 outings overall, and 14-3 the past 17 games versus Western Conference teams.

Monday’s Western Conference matchup is scheduled to start at 6:30 p.m. PT from Glendale’s Jobing.com Arena.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-07-2011, 06:49 PM

Gasol tries to lead Lakers against his former team

LOS ANGELES LAKERS (35-16)

at MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (27-25)

Tip-off: Monday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: -3.5, Total: 195

Pau Gasol may have gotten the Lakers going just in time for his homecoming.

The big man, who was traded from Memphis to L.A. in February 2008, scored a season-high 34 points on 13-of-17 shooting and added 10 rebounds in a win at New Orleans on Saturday. Kobe Bryant added 32 points in that game, and center Andrew Bynum handled a full workload (12 points and 7 boards in 28 minutes) for a second straight contest. The 101-95 win was one of their more impressive victories of the season. The Lakers were just the sixth team in 24 non-overtime games to top 100 points in New Orleans this season. Considering Bryant’s recent success at the FedEx Forum (32.1 PPG, 50.9% shooting from the field over the past six seasons), the good times could keep rolling for Los Angeles.

The Grizzlies have gotten the better of the Lakers in their past two meetings though. On November 30, they held off a late Lakers rally, as Rudy Gay blocked Ron Artest’s desperation three as time expired, to beat L.A. 98-96 in Memphis. The January 2 re-match in L.A. was all Grizzlies, as Gay’s 27 led a balanced scoring attack in a 104-85 victory. The Grizzlies are 4-1 ATS at home against the Lakers over the past three seasons.

Memphis will continue to play without sixth man O.J. Mayo, who is suspended after testing positive for a banned drug. He scored in double-digits in each of their wins over the Lakers. However, the loss of Mayo has shown signs of being addition by subtraction. Before losing at Houston on Saturday, the Grizzlies had won five straight since Mayo’s suspension. They’re 6-1 (SU and ATS) in games that Mayo has sat out this season.

Considering its recent success against the Lakers, and strong play of late, I’m taking Memphis as a home underdog. Many trends from the FoxSheets point the same way, including:

Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MEMPHIS) - hot team - having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season. (71-37 over the last 5 seasons, 65.7%, +30.3 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 02-07-2011, 06:51 PM

Pittsburgh faces tough road test without Gibbs

PITTSBURGH PANTHERS (21-2, 9-1 in Big East)

at WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS (15-7, 6-4 in Big East)

Tip-off: Monday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: West Virginia -1, Total: 128.5

Pittsburgh will play its first game without leading scorer Ashton Gibbs when it visits West Virginia on Monday night.

Gibbs (16.3 PPG, 3.1 APG, 46.3% three-pointers) suffered an MCL injury in his left knee and is expected to be out for 10-to-14 days. He scored a career-high-tying 25 points and made all five of his three-pointers in a 71-59 win over Cincinnati on Saturday. With Gibbs sidelined, second-leading scorer Brad Wanamaker and Gilbert Brown should get more field-goal attempts on offense. Wanamaker (12.3 PPG, 5.2 APG, 4.9 RPG, 38.9% three-pointers) finished with eight points versus Cincinnati on 4-of-8 shooting, while Brown (11.5 PPG, 41.3% three-pointers) had 11 points on 3-of-6 from the field. Travon Woodall (6.7 PPG, 3.6 APG) will take some of Gibbs' minutes in the starting lineup. The Panthers held the Bearcats to 33.3% shooting (21-of-63) in winning for the 11th time in the past 12 games. They've also won 17 of their past 23 on the road, including five straight games. Pitt's only setback in the past 12 games came in a 56-51 loss to Notre Dame at home on Jan. 24.

West Virginia is coming off a 66-50 loss at Villanova on Saturday. Leading scorer Casey Mitchell (15.7 PPG, 36.4% three-pointers) was scoreless in his first game back from a three-game suspension for an undisclosed violation of team rules. Mitchell played 13 minutes and was 0-for-3 from the field. Kevin Jones (13.3 PPG, 7.1 RPG) scored 16 points and John Flowers (10.0 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 2.5 BPG) finished with 15 for the Mountaineers, who shot only 35.8% for the game (19-of-53), while allowing the Wildcats to shoot 54.3% (25-of-46). Jones was 11-of-32 (34.4%) in his previous three games before his 8-of-16 effort against Villanova. Meanwhile, Darryl Bryant (10.7 PPG) played just 13 minutes after getting popped in the nose early in the second half. He had only four points on 1-of-5 shooting and is just 7-of-40 (17.5%) in his past six contests. WVU has held four of its past five opponents under 60 points (53.2 PPG allowed), but is only averaging 56.4 PPG in the five games. The Mountaineers are 2-2 against teams Top 25 teams, owning wins over Georgetown (65-59) and Purdue (68-64) and losing to Louisville (55-54) and Nova (66-50).

West Virginia holds a 95-85 advantage in the all-time series between the two schools. In games played at WVU Coliseum, West Virginia has defeated Pitt in 24 of 32 matchups. But the Panthers have won 14 of the past 21 games overall. Last season, the Mountaineers claimed a 70-51 victory at home, and the Panthers earned a 98-95 triple overtime triumph at Pitt.

However, with Gibbs sidelined, WVU is primed for a victory at home where it is 8-1 SU and 5-2 ATS this season. This FoxSheets trend likes West Virginia to win on Monday.

Play On - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (WEST VIRGINIA) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG), after a combined score of 125 points or less 2 straight games. (53-24 since 1997.) (68.8%, +26.6 units. Rating = 2*).

This highly-rated FoxSheets trend also sides with the Under.

WEST VIRGINIA is 20-5 UNDER (80.0%, +14.5 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. The average score was WEST VIRGINIA 67.9, OPPONENT 62.2 - (Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 02-07-2011, 06:52 PM

Kansas is double-digit favorite over Missouri

MISSOURI TIGERS (18-5, 4-4 in Big 12)

at KANSAS JAYHAWKS (22-1, 7-1 in Big 12)

Tip-off: Monday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Kansas -11, Total: 154.5

Kansas looks for its 12th straight home win against Missouri when it hosts the Tigers on Monday night.

In the previous 11 home victories over the Tigers, the Jayhawks won by an average of 15.9 PPG. And since losing to Texas at home (74-63) on Jan. 22, they've won four straight, three of which have been on the road. Three of the four victories have also been by double figures, including Saturday's 86-66 rout at Nebraska. Brady Morningstar (5.9 PPG, 36.5% three-pointers) had a season-high 19 points versus the Cornhuskers, as Kansas hit a season-best 13-of-24 three-pointers (54.2%). Morningstar is now 11 for his past 18 (61%) from long range after going 5-of-7 on threes against Nebraska. The Jayhawks made 55.6% of their shots (25-of-45) and limited the Huskers to 41.1% from the field (23-of-56). Markieff Morris (13.1 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 58.8 FG%) made a career-high 3 three-pointers and finished with 17 points on 6-of-6 shooting, while Marcus Morris (16.7 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 60.3 FG%) added 16 for his 12th consecutive game in double figures. Kansas will play just its third game against a team that was ranked at the time they matched up. KU is 1-1 in games versus the Top 25, defeating Memphis 81-68 in December and losing to Texas last month. It leads the nation in field-goal percentage (52.0%) and ranks eighth in points (82.9 PPG, second in the Big 12) and fourth in the country in assists (18.2 APG). Freshman Josh Selby, (12.0 PPG, 43.5% three-pointers) sat out the Nebraska game with a stress reaction on his right foot, and is doubtful for Monday's game.

Missouri features an explosive offense, which ranks sixth in the nation in points (83.3 PPG, first in the Big 12) and 11th in assists (17.0 PPG). But the Tigers are winless in the Big 12 on the road (0-4), with two of the four setbacks coming by double digits (at Texas, 71-58 and at Colorado, 89-76). After dropping consecutive road games to the Longhorns and Oklahoma State (76-70), Mizzou defeated Colorado 89-73 on Saturday night behind Kim English's (10.8 PPG, 39.6% three-pointers) 21 points. Leading scorer Marcus Denmon (16.7 PPG, 45.9% three-pointers) added 17 points and Ricardo Ratliffe (11.7 PPG, 6.8 RPG) chipped in with 14 points and nine rebounds. The Tigers have a +14.2 scoring margin and lead the Big 12 in blocked shots (5.6 BPG) and turnover margin (+5.5 per game).

Kansas has won 12 of the past 15 overall meetings against Missouri, and has won the past three by an average of 21.7 PPG. The Jayhawks lead the all-time series with the Tigers, 169-94, including an 87-33 mark in games played in Lawrence and a 40-14 record at Allen Fieldhouse. Although Kansas is only 5-5 ATS at home this year, Missouri is 3-5 ATS on the road. These two four-star FoxSheets trends like Kansas to win and cover the spread on Monday night.

KANSAS is 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons. The average score was KANSAS 79.2, OPPONENT 65.3 - (Rating = 4*).

Mike Anderson is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in a road game where the total is 150 to 159.5 as the coach of MISSOURI. The average score was MISSOURI 69.5, OPPONENT 82.8 - (Rating = 4*).

This highly-rated FoxSheets trend also sides with the Under.

Play Under - Road teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (MISSOURI) - off a home win by 10 points or more, playing their 2nd game in 3 days.(53-21 since 1997.) (71.6%, +29.9 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 02-07-2011, 06:53 PM

Bulls look for rare win in Portland

CHICAGO BULLS (34-15)

at PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS (27-24)

Tip-off: Monday, 10:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Chicago -2, Total: 183

Portland’s Rose Garden has been a house of horrors for the Bulls in recent years, but that could change Monday night as Chicago takes on a shorthanded Blazers team.

Since superstar point guard Derrick Rose joined Chicago in 2008-09, the Bulls have lost both games in Portland by a combined 66 points. But this time around, the Blazers will be without their best player (Brandon Roy) and two of their outstanding defensive big men (Marcus Camby and Greg Oden).

The Blazers have had particular trouble countering forward Luol Deng over the years. He had 38 points on 18-of-25 shooting at home against Portland four years ago. He scored 40 on 14-of-19 shooting in a November home win over the Blazers. Despite being without All-Star power forward Carlos Boozer in that game, the Bulls shot the lights out (60.6% from the field) and Portland went 0-for-14 from three in a 110-98 Bulls win. Playing with the Jazz, Boozer had a monster game against the Blazers last February with 22 points and 23 rebounds.

The Blazers have leaned heavily upon power forward LaMarcus Aldridge with Roy out. Before winning in Cleveland (and who hasn’t done that lately?) on Saturday, they had dropped four of five SU and ATS. Their lone win was an impressive 13-point home victory over San Antonio. Aldridge scored a career-high 40 points in that game. Portland is 20-9 SU when Aldridge scores 20, and 7-15 when he falls short of the 20-point plateau. He’s had tremendous success against Chicago of late, averaging 29.7 PPG on 63.8% shooting from the field and 9.7 RPG in his past three games against the Bulls. With Chicago’s defense stretched a little thinner with the absence of Joakim Noah (thumb), Aldridge could be in for another big night.

After an 18-point win over the Clippers to start their West Coast road trip, the Bulls were thoroughly unimpressive in an 11-point loss to Golden State on Saturday. While Chicago has had their problems in the Pacific Northwest, this year’s team is much different with Boozer aboard and Rose taking the next step towards superstardom. I think Chicago breaks through. The FoxSheets offer this trend:

CHICAGO is 21-7 ATS (75.0%, +13.3 Units) after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CHICAGO 97.9, OPPONENT 97.5 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 02-07-2011, 06:57 PM

College Hoops Notes

February 7, 2011

While most people around the country may not realize how good George Mason and Duquesne are, the betting world can quickly attest for their strength against the almighty spread. The nation has kind of been fixated on No. 3 Texas because they have been blowing teams out regularly in their last 13 games going 10-2-1 ATS, but lets give a little love to George Mason and Duquesne who are doing almost the exact same thing the Long Horns are, just on a smaller scale.

In Saturday’s 17-point win over Old Dominion as a 5-point favorite, George Mason got their 10th straight cover and ninth straight win. Just like Texas, they too have been destroying their opponents and have vaulted to the top of the Colonial conference and the ratings can‘t catch up with them.

This week the Patriots play a very weak Wilmington team before an interesting home matchup against James Madison, a team they beat by two 3 weeks ago on the road. The big game in the conference will take place February 15 when they travel to UVA for a battle between conference heavyweights.

All Duquesne has done this year is compile a 12-3 ATS record while going straight to the top of the Atlantaic-10 as co-leaders. Before losing to St. Bonnie’s on Saturday, the Dukes had won and covered eight games in a row and have high hopes of making the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1977.

The city of Pittsburgh may be sulking a bit with the Steelers loss, but the basketball team rising to their best play since the Norm Nixon era has the city kind of excited about their poor step-sisters of the Pitt Panthers basketball program like rarely seen. Despite their impressive 16-6 record, they likely will have to win their conference tournament as they are currently No. 78 in the RPI rankings.

This Sunday, Duquesne has perhaps their biggest home game since 1977 when they face Xavier who is tied atop the A-10 with them at 8-1. A win against a quality opponent like Xavier -- No. 25 RPI -- would go a long way in getting them a possible at-large bid. Hopefully, my backing of a Pittsburgh team this Sunday will have better results than I did with the city on Super Sunday.

A team that has no shot of going anywhere, but are consistently making money for bettors is Sacramento State. They have only won six games on the season, but they are playing inspired ball of late as they’ve won three of those six games in their last four, covering the spread in five straight. Over their last 12 games they have gone 10-2 ATS, but still only have those recent three wins to show for it. Up next is a trip up north to Big Sky leader Montana, a team they lost by 16 to last month as a 12-point underdog. Taking the double-digit points might be a good idea based on their recent turnaround.

Just a few weeks ago, despite the poor play, I had Michigan State as a team that would step it up and come up with big wins in conference play -- at least enough to make them a No. 8 or 9 seed in the Tournament, but their inconsistent play over the last four weeks says they are bound for the NIT. Losing to Iowa, Michigan and Penn State should not happen to a team coached as well as they are with all the talent they possess. As for Sparty bettors, they haven’t covered a spread in their last nine games. Their RPI rating has dropped to No. 50 and need a miracle fast. Beating Penn State this week and then upsetting Ohio State next week are absolute musts if they intend to make the NCAA’s.

I hate to put UNLV in any negative light because they hustle harder than most teams, but the results from the sports book show that the Rebels haven’t covered the spread in over two weeks. Their 0-5 ATS streak has a great possibility of being snapped this week as they play at TCU, the second worst team in the Mountain West.

Washington started last week as the No. 20 team in the country but then got beat up on their road trip south to face the Oregon squads, neither of whom had a winning record. Thursday night the Huskies fell straight up at Oregon State as a 13-point favorite. They followed that up two days later with a loss at Eugene as 8-point favorites. Washington has now gone four straight games without covering. They’ll try and get things back together Thursday with a road game at Cal who had won four in a row, including both Oregon teams, before losing to Arizona.

The Ducks, meanwhile, have covered five straight games -- winning four straight up -- and have done so as an underdog in each. Thursday night they‘ll play at UCLA once again as underdog. However, the spread will be quite light compared to two weeks ago due to their terrific play of late.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-07-2011, 07:01 PM

Bubble Watch

February 4, 2011

We’re into February now. The Bracket Busters matchups for later in the month have already been announced. The NCAA Tournament is just a bit more than a month away.

Let the "bubble season" begin.

From this point forward, a major talking point regarding the college hoops season will be the much-discussed "bubble" in which many teams will live for the next month as they hope to garner the attention of the Big Dance Selection Committee. We’re still, however, at the stage of the season where there’s still plenty of time for teams to play their way off of the bubble, either into safer territory, or off of it completely. Meanwhile, there’s still time for several teams to make a late run and put themselves into the bubble discussion, keeping in mind that a late-season surge is often looked upon favorably by the Committee, which often weights the last ten games of the season a bit more heavily.

At this stage, we can already project several teams safely into the filed (we can assume the likes of Ohio State and Duke are going to be included), but the bubble is still a pretty fluid place. Following is a quick rundown of certain teams that seem destined to ride the bubble into Selection Sunday.

ACC: Virginia Tech... Seth Greenberg is likely to take nothing for granted after being cruelly denied NCAA berths as one of the "last teams out" a few times in recent years. The Hokies’ formula of defense and rebounding might be enough to get VT noticed in what is a slightly-down ACC this season. Clemson... The key to a fourth straight NCAA trip for the Tigers is going to be to win a few games on the ACC trail, which, so far at least, they haven’t been able to do. We don’t think the Committee is going to reward ACC teams with .500 conference records this season. The team has adjusted to new HC Brad Brownell’s option offense, and senior leadership in the form of G Demontez Stitt & PF Jerai Grant, vets of recent Clemson NCAA qualifiers, gives the Tigers a fighting chance, but it would sure help to win this weekend at Georgia Tech; losses like Wednesday’s at Virginia are not going to help. Boston College... We can’t get the vision of home losses vs. Yale (a shocker) and Harvard (not quite as big of a shocker) out of our minds regarding the Eagles. The slope has become pretty slippery for new HC Steve Donahue, however, with 4 losses in the last five games; another bad week, beginning with a loss on Saturday vs. Virginia Tech, could knock the Eagles down into NIT range. Maryland... The Terps are setting themselves up as a test case for the Committee with six of their eight losses to date vs. teams in the top 25. The schedule looks favorable the rest of the way for Gary Williams’ troops, however, and 6'10 soph Jordan Williams (17.1 ppg) is blossoming into one of the ACC’s new stars.

A-10: Duquesne... Plenty of bubble company in the A-10. Unlike recent years, when we expected the Committee to go several deep in the league, we’re not sure how many league reps get the call this season. We’re close, however, to putting the rampaging Dukes safely into the 68-team field. Duquesne is dominating, with all 16 wins by double-digit margins, with 11 wins in a row after Wednesday’s wipeout of George Washington. The nation’s top TO margin team to boot. Watch these guys. Xavier...Tough loss for the "X" on Wednesday vs. Charlotte, knocking the Musketeers out of a first-place tie with Duquesne atop the league. Could have used a couple of more wins in non-league action; getting just one win out (instead of 4 losses) of games vs. Old Dominion, Gonzaga, Florida, and Cincinnati would have helped. Temple... The Owls aren’t a gimme as they were a year ago, as they’re in the middle of the conference scrum. Unlike Xavier, however, Fran Dunphy’s team claimed some intersectional scalps of note, including Georgia, Maryland, and Georgetown. We’d say the Owls are still looking pretty good. Richmond... The Spiders made it into the Dance last season, and their pre-conference win over Purdue should come in handy on Selection Sunday. Dayton... At the moment we would not have the Flyers in our field of 68, and they just barely get mention at the periphery of the bubble after starting just 4-4 in conference play. A reliable third scoring option behind Chris Warren and Chris Johnson must emerge soon or the Flyers are headed back to the NIT (which, by the way, they won last year).

BIG EAST: Marquette... Most of the league contenders seem to be on the safe side of the Big Dance cur line. The Golden Eagles, however, have more work to do after blowing several leads in the past month. All to play for down the stretch in Milwaukee. St. John’s... Some Big East observers are not as surprised as others than Steve Lavin has the Red Storm in the NCAA frame. The roster Lavs inherited from Norm Roberts was senior-oriented, but what has impressed onlookers is how quickly the Johnnies adapted to Lavin’s preferred up-tempo style. Staying at .500 in the Big East, and beating UCLA in Lavin’s personal grudge match this weekend should set the Red Storm up nicely, especially with several high-profile wins (including over Duke) already in the satchel.

BIG TEN: Michigan State... This is getting worrisome for the Spartans, whose lopsided loss on Wednesday vs. Iowa confirms this is a team in trouble. We’re never going to completely write off a Tom Izzo-coached team, but chemistry seems off in East Lansing, and the recent dismissal of G Korie Lucious is an indicator that all is not well at the Breslin Center. Penn State...Though only 12-9 entering this weekend, we still think the Nittany Lions are in with a shout of a bid as long as they can stay at or above .500 in conference play. Keep a close eye, however, on top rebounder Jeff Brooks’ shoulder injury. Northwestern... How we would like to see the Cats get their first-ever NCAA invitation. But Bill Carmody’s crew has to make up a lot of ground in a hurry after losing 7 of its first 10 Big ten games.

BIG XII: Baylor...The Bears are no sure thing to get back to the Dance after Wednesday’s loss at Oklahoma. Unless HC Scott Drew solves PG issues, Baylor could be NIT-bound instead. Kansas State... There’s still time for the Wildcats to claw their way back tot he safe side of the cut line, but with 8 losses already they do not have much margin for error. Like Baylor, PG issues continue to haunt K-State; did anyone realize how much the Cats would miss Denis Clemente? Colorado... The Buffs were almost knocked off the bubble after a recent 4-game losing streak, although they regained a pulse in the midweek romp past Iowa State. CU is hanging on the periphery of the bubble as it seeks seek their first Big Dance bid since Chauncey Billups’ days on campus. Losses in the next two games vs. Mizzou & Texas A&M, however, might knock Tad Boyle’s Buffs into NIT territory.

COLONIAL: George Mason... With a nine-game win streak and a resume’ that will likely include several wins over top 100 opposition, the Patriots are putting themselves into position on the safe side of the cut line even if they don’t win the CAA Tourney. Virginia Commonwealth... Prior to Wednesday night’s shocking loss at Northeastern, we thought the Rams were sitting pretty good in the at-large queue. Not so sure any longer.

C-USA: UTEP... Like the A-10, C-USA has no sure things as of yet for the Big Dance, but several bubblers. Tim Floyd’s UTEP currently sets the pace in the league, but with its most high-profile non-league win being against Michigan, the Miners cannot hope to breathe easily until Selection Sunday. Southern Miss... Like UTEP, Larry Eustachy’s USM does not have much heft in its overall body of work. Non-league losses to Ole Miss and Colorado State could yet prove costly. Memphis... Just when it looked as if the Tigers had straightened things out, they lose to Marshall and Tulsa. Lopsided losses to Tennessee and Georgetown in featured non-league games won’t help, and the team looks like it could use swingman Wesley Witherspoon back from suspension. UAB... The Blazers are living on the periphery of the bubble at the moment, although they have a couple of non-league wins (at Arkansas and home vs. VCU) that could garner some attention.

HORIZON: Cleveland State... How much have things changed in the Horizon? Right now Gary Waters’ CSU, paced by its 3-G offense featuring sr. Norris Cole (20.1 ppg), is the league’s best bet to get at at-large. Butler... No more margin for error for the Bulldogs, who cannot afford a third-or-fourth place Horizon finish and hope to get a call from the Selection Committee.

MISSOURI VALLEY: Wichita State... The Committee has not gone deep into the Valley for a few years; perhaps the expended 68-team field will provide some extra room this March. At this stage, the Shockers look the best bet of Valley teams to make the Dance if they don’t win "Arch Madness" in St. Louis. Missouri State... The Bears are falling to the periphery of the bubble with recent losses to Indiana State and Evansville. Another couple of those and MSU can forget standing in the at-large queue. Northern Iowa... Don’t underestimate the non-nonsense Panthers, adept at grinding out results and a familiar March face lately. About to supplant Mizzou State as the loop’s second-rated team (that 60-59 win over the Bears at Springfield last Sunday was important), which could put UNI in decent shape with the expanded field.

MOUNTAIN WEST: UNLV... Most suspect the Committee likely goes at least three deep in the MWC, with BYU and San Diego State likely protected seeds. Lon Kruger’s Rebels still seem a bit unsteady, but have cobbled together a 3-game win streak and own a couple of impressive non-league scalps (Wisconsin and Kansas State) that should come in handy). Colorado State... The MWC’s surprise package, CSU will be a handful in the conference tourney with its rugged sr. frontline combo of Andy Ogide and Travis Franklin. Could have really used that win over the high-flying Aztecs (who survived 56-54) on Wednesday, however.

PAC-10: Washington State... The Cougs helped themselves greatly by beating Washington last Sunday. Finishing at least third in the regular-season standings ought to be good enough for Ken Bone’s Cougars and one of the West’s most-exciting performers, swingman Klay Thompson (22 ppg). UCLA... The Bruins might just be one of those to benefit from the expanded field; several have projected them into one of the 12 vs. 12 play-in games. Beating old friend Steve Lavin and St. John’s on Sunday might be as important to Ben Howland’s team as any game remaining on the schedule.

SEC: Alabama... We hadn’t even been thinking about any SEC West teams as bubble types until the Tide took control of that half of the loop. Solid defense and a go-to -performer in F JaMychal Green gives Bama a chance if it can get to 20 wins. Georgia... We think the Dawgs are on the safe side of the cut line at the moment, but they are not leaving a lot of room for error (such as Wednesday’s 1-point win at Arkansas). South Carolina... We have four Eastern sides safely into our field at the moment and two others on the fence; the Gamecocks are the longest shot to make the Dance from that bunch, however.

WCC: Gonzaga... The Zags can take care of business and guarantee their 13th straight NCAA appearance by winning the WCC Tourney. But their at-large candidacy has become very dicey with a recent 3-game losing streak; wins this week vs. Portland (Thursday) and Memphis (Saturday) are needed badly to rehabilitate Gonzaga’s at-large hopes.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-07-2011, 07:41 PM

NBA

Monday, February 7Game Score Status Pick Amount

Boston - 7:00 PM ET Boston -4.5 500
Charlotte - Over 182.5 500

L.A. Lakers - 8:00 PM ET Memphis +3.5 500
Memphis - Under 193.5 500

Minnesota - 8:00 PM ET Minnesota +8 500
New Orleans - Over 202.5 500

Cleveland - 8:30 PM ET Dallas -14.5 500
Dallas - Over 206.5 500

Houston - 9:00 PM ET Houston +5.5 500
Denver - Over 218.5 500

Chicago - 10:00 PM ET Chicago -2.5 500
Portland - Under 181.5 500

Utah - 10:00 PM ET Sacramento +2 500
Sacramento - Over 200 500

Phoenix - 10:30 PM ET Golden State -5 500
Golden State - Under 219.5 500

==============================================

NHL

Monday, February 7Game Score Status Pick Amount

Atlanta - 7:00 PM ET Toronto -106 500
Toronto - Over 5.5 500

NY Rangers - 7:30 PM ET NY Rangers +155 500
Detroit - Under 5.5 500

Edmonton - 8:00 PM ET Edmonton +187 500
Nashville - Under 5.5 500

Chicago - 9:30 PM ET Chicago -127 500
Calgary - Over 5.5 500

Colorado - 9:30 PM ET Phoenix -144 500
Phoenix - Under 5.5 500

Ottawa - 10:00 PM ET Vancouver -255 500
Vancouver - Under 5.5 500

==============================================

NCAAB

Monday, February 7Game Score Status Pick Amount

Cleveland St. - 7:00 PM ET Cleveland St. -2 500
Detroit - Over 140.5 500

Youngstown St. - 7:00 PM ET Wright St. -12.5 500
Wright St. - Under 130.5 500

Citadel - 7:00 PM ET Citadel +1 500
NC-Greensboro - Under 143 500

Loyola-Maryland - 7:00 PM ET Siena -4 500
Siena - Under 136.5 500

Illinois-Chicago - 7:00 PM ET Illinois-Chicago +16.5 500
Butler - Over 136 500

Pittsburgh - 7:00 PM ET Pittsburgh +1 500
West Virginia - Under 128 500

Mississippi Valley State - 7:00 PM ET Mississippi Valley State -2 500
Alabama St. - Over 132 500

Manhattan - 7:30 PM ET Manhattan +18 500
Iona - Over 135.5 500

Austin Peay - 8:00 PM ET Tennessee Tech +4.5 500
Tennessee Tech - Over 147 500

Murray St. - 8:00 PM ET Murray St. -8 500
Eastern Illinois - Under 123 500

Tennessee St. - 8:00 PM ET Jacksonville St. +0 500
Jacksonville St. - Over 128.5 500

Norfolk State - 9:00 PM ET Norfolk State +4 500
Delaware State - Over 133 500

Louisiana Tech - 9:00 PM ET New Mexico St. -9 500
New Mexico St. - Over 142.5 500

Missouri - 9:00 PM ET Kansas -10.5 500
Kansas - Under 154.5 500

Good Luck !

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