Announcement

**StarDust Bum** · 02-04-2011, 12:55 AM

NBA Betting Preview: Boston Celtics host Mavericks

There’s a lot of age on the Boston Celtics.

Just don’t tell that to 38-year-old Shaquille O’Neal, 35-year-old Ray Allen, 34-year-old Kevin Garnett and 33-year-old Paul Pierce.

They’ve helped Boston put together the second-best record in the NBA at 37-11 aided greatly by Rajon Rondo, who leads the league in assists at 12.5 per game and is No. 2 in steals.

O’Neal is shooting a career-best 66.2 percent from the floor. Pierce is leading the team in scoring at 19.1 points per game. Allen, a streak shooter, is averaging 17.3 points and has made 17 of 27 shots from the field in his last two games. Garnett is averaging 16 points and 9.6 rebounds in his last three games.

The Celtics face a difficult challenge, though, hosting resurgent Dallas Friday at 5:05 p.m. PT on ESPN.

The Mavericks opened the season winning 24 of their first 29, playing as well as any team. But then Dirk Nowitzki suffered a knee injury. He missed the next nine games and the Mavericks went 2-7 straight-up and ATS.

Taking a while to regain his rhythm, Nowitzki shot just 39.1 percent from the floor in his next seven games.

But Nowitzki, who averages 23.2 points and shoots 52.5 percent from floor, is back playing at his normal high All-Star level. He is 25-for-38 from the field in his last three games.

Dallas has won its last six games, going 4-2 ATS. The Mavericks have covered 12 of the 14 times they’ve been an underdog this season with Nowitzki in the lineup, winning straight-up in 11 of the games.

The Mavericks nipped Boston, 89-87, as 3 ½-point home favorites on Nov. 8 in their lone meeting this season. The combined 176 points went ‘under’ the 188-point total. Nowitzki led the way with 25 points.

Rondo had 11 points, 15 assists, six rebounds and five steals for Boston in the loss. The Celtics were playing for the fifth time in seven days.

This time around the Celtics will be more rested. They last played this past Tuesday when they concluded a 3-1 West Coast trip with a 95-90 victory against Sacramento failing to cover as 6 ½-point road favorites. The combined 185 points dipped ‘under’ the 191-point total.

In their previous game, the Celtics defeated the Los Angeles Lakers, 109-96, as three-point road ‘dogs in one their most satisfying victories.

Boston ranks first in shooting percentage making 49.9 percent from the floor. The next closest is Phoenix at 47.3 percent. Pierce, Allen, Garnett, O’Neal and Rondo are all shooting above 50 percent from the floor.

The Celtics also rate No. 1 defensively giving up 91.5 points per contest. Dallas ranks sixth allowing 94.5 points a game.

Boston, however, is only 10-13-2 ATS at home.

Dallas played this past Wednesday and easily beat New York, 113-97, as two-point road ‘dogs. The combined 210 points went ‘over’ the 208 ½-point total. Nowitzki had another big performance with 29 points and 11 rebounds.

“I think when 41 (Nowitzki) is out on the floor, just his presence, no matter if he’s 50 percent or a 100 percent, he draws so much attention,” Mavericks point guard Jason Kidd was quoted as saying following his team’s win against the Knicks. “… We’ve got guys who are shooting the ball extremely well from behind the arc and it just opens up the whole court.”

Tyson Chandler had 15 points and 11 rebounds against the Knicks. Chandler is averaging 14 points, 10 rebounds and one block during his past 15 games.

The Mavericks signed veteran forward Peja Stojakovic on Jan. 24 to replace injured Caron Butler. Stojakovic, though, isn’t expected to see his first action with Dallas until next week.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-04-2011, 12:57 AM

Blackhawks, Canucks top Friday NHL odds slate

The Chicago Blackhawks are the defending Stanley Cup champs, but find themselves struggling this season. The Vancouver Canucks own a league-leading 75 points and are in the midst of a four-game winning streak.

The fourth meeting between these two Western Conference foes takes place Friday at Vancouver’s General Motors Place, with the puck dropping at 7:05 p.m. (PT). The Canucks are 155 home favorites on the overnight line, with the total set at 5 ½ goals.

Chicago captured the first two matchups against the Canucks this season, including a 7-1 triumph as a 150 road underdog on Nov. 20 in the lone meeting at Vancouver.

The squads split the two games in Chicago. The Hawks registered a 3-2 shootout victory on Oct. 20 as a 145 home favorite, while the Canucks notched a 4-0 shutout victory on Dec. 3 as 110 road underdogs. The ‘under’ cashed in two of the three contests.

Chicago is now 6-2 in the last eight series meetings against the Canucks, including 4-0 in the last four trips to Vancouver. The ‘over’ is also 4-1 in the last five meetings at GM Place.

Vancouver extended its winning streak to four in a row Tuesday by clobbering the Coyotes as a 128 road favorite, 6-0.

Goalie Roberto Luongo didn’t show any rust from a week-long layoff as he recorded his third shutout of the season. Luongo is now 24-8-2-5 with a 2.22 GAA and .926 save percentage.

Prospect Cody Hodgson scored his first NHL goal in just his second game. All six of the Canucks’ goals came at even strength, including their first shot on goal by Daniel Sedin at 3:46 of the first period.

The Canucks solidified their hold on first place overall with 75 points. Vancouver is now 33-10-9 on the season and has lost just three games in regulation in its last 32 encounters.

Vancouver will begin a four-game homestand with Friday’s game, and that is bad news for the defending champion Blackhawks.

The Canucks are a league-leading 17-3-1-4 through 25 home dates and are outscoring the opposition at home by an average of 3.52 to 2.08. Overall, they are own a plus-53 goal differential (175-122).

Coach Alain Vigneault’s Canucks are ranked third in both offense (3.3 GPG) and defense (2.2 GPG). They are third on the power play with a 24 percent success rate and fourth on the penalty kill by fighting off 84.9 percent of their opponents chances.

Chicago entered the All-Star break on a two-game losing streak, but snapped that skid with Tuesday’s 7-4 victory against Columbus as a 135 home favorite. Though the combined 11 goals soared ‘over’ the NHL odds closing total, the ‘under’ is still 28-23 in Chicago’s first 51 outings and 7-3 in its last 10 road dates.

The win allowed Chicago to improve to 27-20-2-2, but the club is still sitting in third place in the Central Division, 10 points behind first-place Detroit.

Though the Blackhawks failed to score on five power play chances during Tuesday’s contest, they still own the league’s best power play unit by connecting on 25.6 percent of their chances. Chicago is fifth in the league offensively, averaging 3.3 goals per game.

Marty Turco stopped 29 of Columbus’ 34 shots to register the win and raise his record to 11-10-1-1. He has a bloated 3.06 GAA and an unimpressive .897 save percentage.

Corey Crawford, the other half of Chicago’s two-goalie tandem, is 16-10-1-1 with a 2.19 GAA and .919 save percentage. He also has two shutouts.

The Don Best Sports injury report lists Vancouver left wing Aaron Volpatti as “questionable” with sore ribs. Chicago center Ryan Johnson is also “questionable” with a lower body injury.

Vancouver resumes its four-game homestand Monday by hosting the Ottawa Senators. Chicago continues its six-game road excursion Monday with a stop in Calgary to play the Flames.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-04-2011, 08:06 PM

NBA

Friday, February 4Game Score Status Pick Amount

New York - 7:00 PM ET Philadelphia -4 500
Philadelphia - Over 208.5 500

Minnesota - 7:00 PM ET Minnesota +3.5 500
Toronto - Over 217.5 500

Portland - 7:00 PM ET Portland +3.5 500
Indiana - Under 191.5 500

Miami - 7:00 PM ET Miami -5 500
Charlotte - Over 190 500

Orlando - 7:00 PM ET Washington +5.5 500
Washington - Over 202.5 500

New Jersey - 7:30 PM ET New Jersey +5 500
Detroit - Under 187 500

L.A. Clippers - 7:30 PM ET L.A. Clippers +7.5 500
Atlanta - Under 195.5 500

Dallas - 8:00 PM ET Dallas +6.5 500
Boston - Under 188.5 500

Cleveland - 8:00 PM ET Cleveland +13.5 500
Memphis - Under 202.5 500

Oklahoma City - 9:00 PM ET Phoenix +2 500
Phoenix - Over 213.5 500

San Antonio - 10:00 PM ET San Antonio -4 500
Sacramento - Under 196 500

Utah - 10:30 PM ET Utah +9 500
Denver - Over 207.5 500

==============================================

NHL

Friday, February 4Game Score Status Pick Amount

Florida - 7:00 PM ET New Jersey -135 500
New Jersey - Over 5 500

Buffalo - 7:00 PM ET Buffalo +132 500
Pittsburgh - Over 5.5 500

Columbus - 7:30 PM ET Columbus +173 500
Detroit - Over 5.5 500

Washington - 7:30 PM ET Tampa Bay -107 500
Tampa Bay - Under 5.5 500

Edmonton - 8:00 PM ET Edmonton +173 500
St. Louis - Under 5.5 500

Chicago - 10:00 PM ET Chicago +138 500
Vancouver - Over 5.5 500

==============================================

NCAAB

Friday, February 4Game Score Status Pick Amount

Harvard - 7:00 PM ET Harvard +1.5 500
Princeton - Under 130 500

Manhattan - 7:00 PM ET Manhattan +12 500
Siena - Over 127.5 500

Columbia - 7:00 PM ET Columbia -2 500
Brown - Over 144.5 500

Boston U - 7:00 PM ET Boston U +1.5 500
Stony Brook - Under 121.5 500

Dartmouth - 7:00 PM ET Pennsylvania -11 500
Pennsylvania - Under 123 500

Loyola-Maryland - 7:00 PM ET Rider -6.5 500
Rider - Over 143.5 500

South Carolina Upstate - 7:00 PM ET Stetson -5 500
Stetson - Under 125.5 500

Marist - 7:00 PM ET Canisius -14.5 500
Canisius - Under 135.5 500

Cornell - 7:00 PM ET Yale -4.5 500
Yale - Under 132 500

St. Peter's - 7:00 PM ET St. Peter's -5.5 500
Niagara - Over 124 500

East Tennessee St. - 7:05 PM ET Florida Gulf Coast +9 500
Florida Gulf Coast - Over 137.5 500

Iona - 9:00 PM ET Fairfield -2.5 500
Fairfield - Over 131.5 500

Good Luck !

**StarDust Bum** · 02-04-2011, 08:07 PM

Trending: NBA teams on zero days rest

In the grueling and unpredictable NBA schedule, there are many back-to-back games that teams just can’t (or don’t want to) handle. But how much do tired legs play into winning bets? This column will focus on zero days of rest for NBA teams. All numbers are through Thursday, Feb. 3.
First we take a look at the entire league.
NBA Records Straight-Up
0 Days Rest: 159-192 (45%)
1 Day Rest: 403-350 (54%)
2+ Days Rest: 168-188 (47%)
As you can see here, SU winning percentages increase 9% for teams with a day of rest compared to the second half of back-to-back games. Having more than one day rest doesn’t help teams, as there is a 7% drop-off from 1 Day Rest to 2+ Days Rest.

Although neither conference has a SU winning record, West teams are 7% more likely than their East counterparts to win a game SU without any rest.
SU Records with Zero Days Rest
West: 78-82 (49%)
East: 81-110 (42%)
Total: 159-192 (45%)

In terms of ATS records, the outcomes are quite different.
NBA Records Against The Spread
0 Days Rest: 178-166 (52%)
1 Day Rest: 372-359 (51%)
2+ Days Rest: 161-186 (46%)
As you can see here, ATS winning percentages decrease as teams go from 0 Days Rest (52%) to 1 Day Rest (51%) to 2+ Days Rest (46%).

The West is even more superior to the East (10%) in terms of ATS without rest.
ATS Records with Zero Days Rest
West: 89-67 (57%)
East: 89-99 (47%)
Total: 178-166 (52%)

To make sense of all this, we broke down each category by team to see if any trends stood out.

Best SU Records with Zero Days Rest
Five teams are winning better than 65% SU in the second leg of consecutive games.
L.A. Lakers 8-1 (89%)
Miami 9-3 (75%)
Atlanta 11-4 (73%)
Chicago 10-4 (71%)
Dallas 6-3 (67%)
There are no big surprises here as all five of these teams are winning at least 63% of their games SU overall.

Worst SU Records with Zero Days Rest
And five teams are losing more than 65% SU in the second leg of consecutive games.
Washington 1-10 (9%)
New Jersey 2-11 (15%)
Detroit 2-9 (18%)
Charlotte 3-11 (21%)
Cleveland 4-12 (25%)
It’s interesting that all five teams here are in the Eastern Conference, but the only team that wasn’t expected to be on this list is Charlotte (21-27 SU overall) who has won 53% (18-16) of its games SU with at least a day of rest.

Best ATS Records with Zero Days Rest
Six teams are winning better than 65% ATS in the second leg of consecutive games.
Memphis 10-3 (77%)
New York 8-3 (73%)
Minnesota 7-3 (70%)
Milwaukee 9-4 (69%)
Golden State 6-3 (67%)
Sacramento 6-3 (67%)
Memphis and Minnesota are both unbeaten (4-0 and 3-0, respectively) when playing a home game the night after being on the road. Since Memphis and New York are second and third in the NBA in overall ATS record, their place atop this list was expected. But three of these teams carry sub-.500 ATS marks overall (Sacramento 42%, Minnesota 46% and Milwaukee 49%).

Since none of these teams boast elite SU records, we wondered whether age played a factor here. Do younger teams have a better chance to cover ATS with no rest, as compared to a veteran club? To answer this, we took a look at the average age for NBA Opening Night rosters, and check out what we found.
Memphis – 2nd youngest in NBA
New York – 4th youngest
Minnesota – 1st youngest
Milwaukee – 15th youngest
Golden State - 17th youngest
Sacramento – 6th youngest
Wow! Four of the six youngest teams in the league have the best ATS records with zero days rest. When we add Oklahoma City (3rd-youngest, 5-3 ATS) and Washington (5th-youngest, 4-7 ATS), we compile an impressive 40-22 ATS (65%) record with zero days rest for the six youngest teams in the league.

Worst ATS Records with Zero Days Rest
Only three teams are losing more than 65% ATS in the second leg of consecutive games.
Boston 3-9 (25%)
Charlotte 4-10 (29%)
Orlando 4-9 (31%)
Again, we have all Eastern Conference representatives here, and if we extended this list to teams at 40% ATS or worse, we’d see seven East teams and only one West squad. Boston and Charlotte are both 0-4 ATS when going from home to road without a day of rest in between. We already saw Charlotte earlier due to its 3-11 SU record with no rest, but Boston and Orlando have no business being on this list with SU records of 37-11 (77%) and 31-19 (62%) and ATS marks near 50% (Boston 49%, Orlando 43%).

On second thought, maybe the Celtics and Magic do belong here since they are both veteran teams. We already saw great success for young teams ATS with no rest, but is the flip side also pertinent -- do old teams post the poorest ATS marks? Going back to our Opening Night rosters, the six oldest teams in the NBA are Miami, LA Lakers, Denver, Dallas, Boston and Orlando.

In terms of ATS with no days rest, the records are:
Miami 6-6 (50%)
LA Lakers 5-4 (56%)
Denver 4-7 (36%)
Dallas 5-4 (56%)
Boston 3-9 (25%)
Orlando 4-9 (31%)
Only two teams here are above .500, and barely, at 5-4. The combined ATS record with zero days rest for the six oldest teams in the NBA is: 27-39 (41%). This isn’t as significant as our 65% success rate for the youngsters, but the number becomes more notable when you compare the 41% to these six teams’ combined records with at least one day of rest -- 69% SU (158-70) and 49% ATS (107-111).

Lastly, we examined Over/Under records for all teams playing the second of back-to-back games.

Highest OVER Pct. with Zero Days Rest
Houston 9 over, 4 under (69%)
New York 8-4 (67%)
San Antonio 5-3 (63%)
Orlando 8-5 (62%)
Utah 8-5 (62%)
Minnesota 6-4 (60%)
New York (111.1 PPG), Houston (108.1 PPG) and Minnesota (104.5 PPG) are the top three scoring teams in this category, and are all allowing at least 107.5 PPG.

Highest UNDER Pct. with Zero Days Rest
New Orleans 10 under over, 2 under (83%)
Detroit 8-3 (73%)
Indiana 8-3 (73%)
Phoenix 6-3 (67%)
Golden State 6-3 (67%)
Atlanta 10-5 (67%)
Although Phoenix scores 105.1 PPG in all games this year, that number drops considerably to 99.9 PPG with no rest. Detroit is being outscored by a hefty 10.7 PPG in the second half of back-to-backs.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-04-2011, 08:10 PM

Two great ATS teams clash when Knicks visit 76ers

NEW YORK KNICKS (25-23)

at PHILADELPHIA 76ers (22-26)

Tip-off: Friday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Philadelphia -3.5, Total: 208.5

The Knicks and 76ers meet in the first game of a home-and-home set as New York travels to Philadelphia on Friday and the 76ers play at Madison Square Garden on Sunday. The Knicks currently sit in sixth place in the Eastern Conference playoff standings, three games ahead of the seventh-place Sixers.

After losing six straight and seven of eight, the Knicks rebounded to win three of their next four, but lost by 16 to Dallas at home on Wednesday. The Knicks have fared well ATS this season with a record of 29-17 (63%, third-best in NBA), and have won four of their past six ATS. On the road, the Knicks have done excellent ATS posting an NBA-best 17-7 (71%) mark. This is despite going 2-9 SU in their past 11 road games, including five straight road defeats. New York’s shooting has been its downfall during this slump where it has lost seven of its past 10 games. Starting with a 10-point loss at home to Sacramento where the Knicks shot a season-low 31.5 percent from the field, they have connected on just 42.5 percent from the field. In its loss Wednesday to the Mavs, New York made just 6-of-23 tries from behind the arc. After recording consecutive games of 18 points, Amar’e Stoudemire has averaged 27.0 PPG on 53.1 percent shooting over his past five games. Danilo Gallinari has also picked up the pace over his past two games averaging 28.0 PPG on 53.8 percent shooting from the field. The Knicks will also get a boost from the return of Wilson Chandler (16.8 PPG, 6.1 RPG), who has missed three straight games due to a calf injury. Chandler is a big key to the team’s success, making 50.7% FG in wins this season, and just 42.5% FG when the Knicks lose.

Philadelphia enters Friday winners of two straight and five of their past six SU. They are an NBA-best 31-16 ATS (66%) this season and their 15-8 ATS home record is second to only the Grizzlies. Philly also carries an impressive 15-3 ATS mark (83%) with one day’s rest. Since losing four straight ATS from January 8-17, the 76ers have won seven of their last eight ATS. After scoring a combined 21 points in his previous two games, Lou Williams poured in 26 points against the Nets on Wednesday. Jrue Holiday has struggled in his past six games, averaging just 10.6 PPG on 39.4 percent from the field. Andre Iguodala is averaging 16.8 PPG over his past four games with a 59.6 FG percentage.

The Knicks have won their last two visits to Philadelphia, but the Sixers won the previous nine games at home before that. Both teams have fared excellent ATS with the Knicks posting the best record ATS on the road and the Sixers with the second-best record ATS at home. I’m taking New York plus the points to win on the road.

The FoxSheets also side with the Knicks:

Play On - Any team (NEW YORK) - explosive offensive team (>=102 PPG) against an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more. (43-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.9%, +25.4 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 02-04-2011, 08:11 PM

Thunder favored on the road at Phoenix

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (31-17)

at PHOENIX SUNS (23-24)

Tip-off: Friday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Oklahoma City -2, Total: 216.5

The hot Phoenix Suns come into Friday’s game winning 8-of-11 games, but go up against the even hotter Kevin Durant.

The Northwest Division-leading Oklahoma City Thunder have been terrific on offense this year scoring 104.2 PPG (5th in the NBA). The Thunder (24-23 ATS), are coming off a nice 104-93 win against the talented Hornets on Wednesday. In that victory, Durant (29.3 PPG) recorded his league-best fifth 40-point game by scoring 43 points and hitting 14 of his 19 shots. During Durant’s recent four-game tear, the possible MVP has averaged 40.8 PPG and led his team to win three of four.

The Suns have been mediocre this year (21-25 ATS), but are coming in on a three-game win streak and have won eight of 11 (8-3 ATS). A big reason for the recent success has been the exceptional play of Marcin Gortat (6.9 PPG), who is averaging 15.1 PPG and 10.9 RPG the past eight games. Gortat was acquired from Orlando in the blockbuster trade and has been making the most of playing with Steve Nash. Another factor to the recent winning ways of the Suns is their improved defense. Phoenix is only allowing 83.3 PPG in their past three games and held the Bucks to 31.1 percent shooting in a 92-77 win Wednesday. The defense has been quite an achievement for the Suns, who are second worst in the NBA in scoring defense (106.3 PPG).

The last time these teams met Dec. 19, the Suns were without Gortat, Vince Carter and Mickael Pietrus, who were just acquired a day earlier from Orlando. In this meeting, Kevin Durant had 28 points and got help from Russell Westbrook and Jeff Green who added 19 points each in a 113-110 win for the Thunder. New arrivals Gortat and Pietrus are very strong defenders, which may help slow down the run-and-gun Thunder. Phoenix is not all that tough on its home floor being 14-10 SU and 11-13 ATS but neither is Oklahoma City on the road (13-10 SU, 11-12 ATS). Expect a close, high-scoring bout, and in the end, Oklahoma City will get the win and cover thanks to another huge game from Kevin Durant.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 16-4 ATS (80.0%, +11.6 Units) in road games avenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points over the last 2 seasons. The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 98.9, OPPONENT 97.6 - (Rating = 2*).

This FoxSheets trend expects the game to finish Over the total.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 17-6 OVER (73.9%, +10.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season. The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 108.1, OPPONENT 103.3 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 02-04-2011, 08:12 PM

Nuggets host struggling Jazz likely missing Deron Williams

UTAH JAZZ (29-21)

at DENVER NUGGETS (29-20)

Tip-off: Friday, 10:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Denver -10, Total: 209

The Jazz haven’t experienced a road victory since Jan. 8 against Houston, losing six straight. Life on the road isn’t going to get any easier when they face the Denver Nuggets on Friday, who have the second best home record in the Western Conference (21-5).

Utah comes in with uncertainty of the status of Deron Williams, its star point guard. Williams, who averages 21.9 PPG and 9.4 APG, has been sidelined the past four games with a wrist injury (2-2 SU & ATS). Earl Watson (3.5 PPG) has been Williams’ replacement and is playing decent basketball, averaging 8.5 PPG and 8.0 APG. The last two times the Jazz have faced the Nuggets at the Pepsi Center they were beaten badly, losing by an average of 18 points. If Williams can’t go, Utah desperately needs C.J. Miles (12.4 PPG) to be that spark off the bench. Miles has averaged 16.8 PPG with Williams sidelined and must play well for the Jazz to have any shot at leaving Pepsi Center with a victory.

In Denver, the Nuggets are 7-1 SU and 6-1 ATS against Utah the past three seasons and have won five straight, with the last loss dating all the way back to Feb. 6, 2008. During this home abuse of the Jazz, the Nuggets are averaging 114.8 PPG. Denver has an extremely deep scoring team with seven players averaging in double digits led by Carmelo Anthony’s 23.8 PPG. Nene Hilario is having a career year, averaging 15.1 PPG and pulling down 7.3 RPG.

For the year, the Jazz are 12-12 SU and 11-13 ATS away from Salt Lake City. The Jazz’s strong defender, Andrei Kirilenko, is also doubtful for Friday’s game (ankle), which won’t help their recent atrocious defense allowing an average of 105.5 points on 51.4 percent shooting during the road skid. Since defeating Orlando on Dec. 10, Utah is 1-7 SU against winning teams, with the only victory coming against a New York team that is just two games above .500. The Jazz are also 4-14 ATS in their past 18 games, while Denver is 9-4 ATS (and SU) in its past 13 contests. The Nuggets will take advantage of a leaderless Utah team and win big at home.

The FoxSheets give two more reasons to play on Denver Friday night.

George Karl is 34-15 ATS (69.4%, +17.5 Units) when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season as the coach of DENVER.The average score was DENVER 105.4, OPPONENT 99.9 - (Rating = 2*).

UTAH is 4-14 ATS (22.2%, -11.4 Units) versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots this season. The average score was UTAH 96.3, OPPONENT 102.6 - (Rating = 2*).

This FoxSheets trend predicts the game will finish Over the total.

Play Over - Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (UTAH) - after going under the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games, vs. division opponents. (44-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.3%, +26.4 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 02-04-2011, 08:13 PM

Mavs-Celtics meet in matchup of two hot teams

DALLAS MAVERICKS (33-15)

at BOSTON CELTICS (37-11)

Tip-off: Friday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Boston -6, Total: 190

The best team in the Eastern Conference hosts the second-best team in the Western Conference on Friday when the Celtics take on the Mavericks.

The Mavericks have gotten their season back on track after losing Dirk Nowitzki to injury for a while. After dropping nine of 11, which includes losing the first two games with him back, Dallas has now won six straight and seven of its past eight SU. Dallas has done well ATS overall, 25-21, especially on the road where it is 13-8 ATS. After losing nine of 11 ATS, the Mavericks have won three straight. They are coming off an impressive 113-97 win over the Knicks at Madison Square Garden on Wednesday. Nowitzki scored 29 points in that game, and is connecting on 63 percent of his shots over the past two games with an average of 26.5 PPG. Jose Juan Barea scored 22 points in the win over the Knicks. Tyson Chandler is averaging 16.9 PPG and 10.3 RPG while shooting 62.3 percent from the field over his past seven games.

The Celtics enter winners of two straight and 9-of-11 SU. They are 22-23 ATS this season, which includes going 9-13 at home. They are just 3-7-2 over their past 12 home games ATS. After shooting a season-low 34.2 percent from the field in their 88-71 loss in Phoenix, the Celtics bounced back strong, making 60.3 percent of their shots in a 109-96 win at the Lakers. But again they struggled from the field against the Kings posting a 44.7% FG in a 95-90 road win. Ray Allen has averaged 21.5 PPG over his past two games, making 17-of-27 FG attempts, including 7-of-14 from three-point range.

The Mavericks defeated Boston 89-87 at Dallas on November 8. Kevin Garnett had 18 points and 15 boards for the Celtics in the loss. Dirk Nowitzki scored 25 for the Mavericks and is averaging 30 PPG in his past three games against the Celtics, which includes scoring 37 in a 99-90 Dallas win at Boston last January 18. I’m taking Dallas with points to continue their success ATS on the road.

FoxSheets says:

Play Against - Any team (BOSTON) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 4 straight games. (117-75 over the last 5 seasons.) (60.9%, +34.5 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 02-04-2011, 08:15 PM

February NBA Movers

January 31, 2011

After the Super Bowl, basketball will take center stage with college conference races heating up and the NBA playoff picture becoming clearer. The NBA All Star game will also get a lot of attention and figures to be one of the best in years in terms of the talent on the court. February presents some very uneven scheduling in the NBA with several teams facing very road heavy slates and a few teams looking to make up ground with limited travel in the month. Here are four teams worth watching in February that we expect to see a big rise or a fall in the standings.

Play On: Orlando Magic

Orlando has been somewhat of a forgotten team in the Eastern Conference with the attention that Boston and Miami have received. The Magic would currently be the #4 seed in the Eastern Conference behind Boston, Chicago, and Miami, and the Magic are only a game ahead of the Hawks to hold on to the #4 spot and have home court for the first round. The Magic are just two years removed from a trip to the NBA Finals and after making a few significant roster moves it has taken some time for the Magic to get all pieces back on the same page. That said the Magic are out-scoring foes by almost six points per game, compared to less than two points per game for the Hawks and Orlando could be poised for a huge month of February.

After playing nine of the last 14 games on the road to close out January the Magic will play just three road games in all of February. Only one of those road games is against a winning team and just half of the eight home games in the month will come against quality competition. Orlando is just 6-5 in the last eleven games and there could be value on the Magic in the coming weeks. It is worth noting that two of those recent losses came in overtime and the January schedule was filled with road games as the team attempted to make adjustments with the new personnel. Orlando will have a very tough March schedule but February should be a chance for the Magic to bridge the gap with the top seeds and at the very least put a firm grip on one of the top four spots.

Play On: Golden State Warriors

Golden State is 20-27 and a full five games back from the final spot in the Western Conference playoff bracket. Of the teams on the outside looking in, Golden State may be the most intriguing and the Warriors could make a push in February. Golden State had a positive January including a 7-6 S/U record in the last 13 games and an 8-5 ATS mark. The Warriors are 14-10 S/U at home this season and Golden State has home games in eight of the 11 games in the coming month.

The opposition for the Warriors is challenging with some of the better teams in the league including winning teams in seven of those games. That will create home underdog value for the Warriors in several match-ups. The Warriors incredibly are just 2-6 ATS as home underdogs this season but expect that record to improve dramatically this month. For the year Golden State is 14-15 as underdogs but there will be several favorable situations ahead including three times facing teams on the end of long road trips. Look for the Warriors to be a team capable of a few upsets and the Warriors may inch closer to the playoff picture by the end of February before fading in a very tough March schedule.

Play Against: San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs have by far the best record in the NBA at 40-7 and the ATS numbers have also been outstanding with a 28-17-2 mark for the season. Going against the Spurs has been a big mistake for the most part this season and while the record is incredible the Spurs are generally not as overvalued as some of the flashier teams like the Lakers, Heat, and Celtics. The Spurs are not likely to survive what will be a brutal scheduling stretch in February without compiling a few more losses however. San Antonio will play nine consecutive road games to open the month of February, starting on the far west coast with games in Portland, Los Angeles, and Sacramento. San Antonio will then head east for six games on the east coast including two sets of back-to-back games before the all star break.

The schedule does not feature a great deal of high quality teams but that means that the Spurs are going to be heavy road favorites in several match-ups and it will be tough for San Antonio to bring great intensity every night against lesser teams and through a grueling travel schedule. Look for value to be against the Spurs in several February match-ups and while San Antonio should still have the league’s best record by the end of the month a few more losses are likely to be chalked up and keep in mind that San Antonio has played seven more home games than road games at this point in the season and this is an older team that could show more wear as the season goes on.

Play Against: Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers are growing in popularity with the rising stardom of rookie Blake Griffin and while the playoffs are not a realistic possibility for this team the Clippers have quickly become a play-on team going 13-7 in the past 20 games heading into February. The January schedule for the Clippers was incredibly easy however and only four of those 13 wins came against winning teams. The Clippers are 15-13 S/U at home and the 3-15 road mark leaves big questions heading into a road heavy schedule in February. Twelve of 14 February games for the Los Angeles will be on the road and the two home games are against elite teams, Chicago and Boston. The road trip features winning teams in seven of eleven consecutive road games and Los Angeles will not play a home game from February 2 until February 26.

With the Clippers gaining a recent buzz and winning some games over the past few weeks there is likely going to be some inflated spreads to back the Clippers as slight underdogs or even as road favorites in a few match-ups on the road trip. Look for Griffin-mania to die down a bit in February as no team could sustain success through what will be an incredibly challenging month for the Clippers.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-04-2011, 08:16 PM

Inside the Paint - Friday

February 4, 2011

Televised Tilts - ESPN
Dallas (33-15 SU, 25-21 ATS) at Boston (37-11 SU, 22-24 ATS): After dealing with some key injuries and bad breaks, it appears that the Mavericks have hit their stride again. Dallas has ripped off six straight (3-2-1 ATS) wins, the last three coming by double digits. Tonight’s test at Boston will be a better barometer for the club, since four of the six wind during their streak came against teams with losing records. Fortunately for the Mavs, they catch the Celtics in a possible flat spot. Boston returns home after a four-game West Coast trip that watched the team go 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS. Despite the tough test on tap after the long roadie, most sportsbooks listed the Celtics as six-point home favorites over the Mavs. Doc Rivers’ troops have dominated at home (22-3) but their record against the number (9-14 ATS) isn’t profitable. And if you look at Boston’s three losses at home, they were against Oklahoma City (101-102), New Orleans (81-83) and Houston (102-108). The trio resides in the Western Conference and so does Dallas. If you need another reason to back the Mavs, then look at their road record (14-7 SU, 13-8 ATS). Make a note that four of those setbacks came without the duties of All-Star forward Dirk Nowitzki.

Utah (29-21 SU, 22-28 ATS) at Denver (29-20 SU, 22-25 ATS): Tough contest to handicap due to the status of Utah point guard Deron Williams (wrist), who missed the last four games. He’s ‘questionable’ for Friday. The Jazz have gone 2-2 both SU and ATS without his duties, and the ‘under’ has cashed in all four. It would be tough to expect another win tonight without Williams, especially when you look at the opponent in Denver. The Nuggets have gone 21-5 SU and 12-12 ATS at home, and that includes a 6-1 run both SU and ATS from the Pepsi Center. Gamblers might want to note that Utah has lost six straight on the road, both SU and ATS. The host has won and covered the last five in this series, including Denver’s 110-88 win over Utah on Oct. 27 as a four-point home favorite.

Trouble in Toronto

It’s safe to say that Minnesota (11-37 SU, 22-26 ATS) and Toronto (13-37 SU, 21-27 ATS) won’t be making the playoffs. On paper, they appear to be equal but the more consistent team lately has been the Raptors and that’s not a good thing. Toronto has dropped 13 straight (5-8 ATS) and a lot of the problems are on offense. The team has been held under 100 in 10 of their 13 losses, but they should get a boost tonight when backup point guard Leandro Barbosa (hamstring) returns to the lineup. Total players have watched the ‘under’ produced a 10-3 mark during this run. During this losing skid, Toronto has been an underdog in 12 of the contests. Tonight, the Raptors are laying four points and that alone tells you that the streak could come to an end. Taking the favorite might not be a bad idea, considering Minnesota has gone 2-22 SU and 11-13 ATS on the road. However, the Timberwolves beat the Raptors 103-87 last Saturday as five-point home favorites.

23 Straight?

I’m not sure why we even touch on the woeful Cleveland franchise but the team is bordering on history. The Cavaliers have been installed as heavy road ‘dogs to a Memphis squad this is playing great basketball. The Grizzlies are 7-2 both SU and ATS in their last nine and have ripped off four straight wins and covers. Taking the points (13.5) is risky but total players following Byron Scott’s team have noticed a lack of defense lately. The club has surrendered an average of 111.5 PPG in their last six, which has produced a 5-1 ‘over’ record. The ‘over/under’ is sitting at 204 1/2.

Back-to-Back Spots

The Heat and Spurs both notched impressive road victories last night against the Magic and Lakers respectively. Unfortunately for the pair, they won’t have time to celebrate with games on tap tonight.

Miami at Charlotte: The Heat has gone 9-3 SU and 6-6 ATS on zero days rest with all three of those losses coming on the road. Despite that fact, Miami is 17-9 SU and 15-11 ATS away from home. The Heat have won and covered both meetings against the Bobcats this season, including a 96-82 road win on Jan. 3. The ‘under’ cashed in each game and is on a 5-0 run in this series. Charlotte is 12-11 SU and 11-11 ATS at home, but it could be gassed for this outing after returning from a rough six-game road trip. Fortunately for Paul Silas, his team went 4-2 both SU and ATS. To make matters worse for the ‘Cats, Dallas visits Saturday and Boston on Monday.

San Antonio at Sacramento: The Spurs own a 4-4 SU and 5-3 ATS ledger on zero days rest. This will be the third game of their nine-game road trip, which has seen them go 1-1 both SU and ATS. Since half of the team’s losses have come in this situation, it’s certainly a good spot to back the home squad. Sacramento opened as a 5 ½-point ‘dog and the number dipped quickly to 4 ½ points. Even though the Kings are 4-9 over their last 13, they do own a 9-4 ATS ledger and eight of the losses were by seven points or less. These two clubs haven’t met this season, which is a good thing for Sacramento. Last year, San Antonio won all four battles against the Kings, including two meeting in Northern California.

Total Notes

Raptors on a 10-3 ‘under’ run
The ‘under’ is 5-0 in Portland’s last five
Orlando and Washington have watched their last four meetings go ‘over’
Despite high totals, the Knicks and 76ers have seen the ‘under’ go 7-2 in their last nine encounters, including four in a row
The Clippers and Hawks have gone ‘over’ in their last four head-to-head battles
All-Star Reserve Rant

Normally, I could care less about these games but I do take a vested interest in these exhibitions on occasion, usually just an ‘over’ wager. The voting system is done by the coaches and I respect their opinion but the All-Star Game is supposed to feature the “Best” players, despite their record. The biggest snub was Golden State’s Monta Ellis, who can score with anybody in the NBA. Also, Portland forward LaMarcus Aldridge should’ve gotten the nod over the Lakers’ Pau Gasol and San Antonio’s Tim Duncan, despite their great records. I don’t have any issues with the Celtics getting four reserves but the Nets' Brook Lopez is having a better season than Shaquille O’Neal. And, it would’ve been nice to see the Knicks’ Raymond Felton get noticed.

Announcement

The Bum's Friday's Best Bets NBA-NHL-NCAAB!!

The Bum's Friday's Best Bets NBA-NHL-NCAAB!!

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment