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Unbeaten Ohio State hosts rival Michigan Thursday
MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (13-9, 3-6 in Big Ten)
at OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (22-0, 9-0 in Big Ten)
Tip-off: Thursday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Ohio State -16, Total: 130.5
Now THIS is a win that would make a season.
With a 13-9 record, John Beilein’s Michigan Wolverines have put together a season full of close calls, sloppy play, and wild inconsistency, laboring their way to a 3-6 mark in conference play and a six-game losing streak earlier this month. They have struggled at times to score (67.1 PPG, 236th in Division I), rebound (33.0 RPG, 272nd in Division I) and defend (last five opponents shot 53.5% FG). But with all that has gone wrong in Ann Arbor, one thing can make it all better come Thursday night: beat the undefeated, 22-0, number one team in the country, who also happens to be your most-hated rival in the history of mankind, the Ohio State Buckeyes. If the Wolverines can rise up, channeling their inner Schembechler, and go on the road to end the perfect season of “that team to the south,” there could be a rash of babies born in the state of Michigan later this year named “Beilein.”
Before you declare that it cannot happen, remember that Michigan is just a week removed from its biggest road win of the season, a 61-57 victory over another hated rival, Michigan State. Michigan has also shown an ability to play very well against some of the toughest teams in the country. Earlier this season against then-undefeated Kansas, the Wolverines took Bill Self’s squad to overtime before losing by seven. Then three days later in its first matchup against Ohio State, they battled tooth and nail before the Buckeyes escaped with a 68-64 win. The Wolverines pulled to within two with under a minute to play after trailing by 12 in the second half, but the rally would fall short. While the Kansas and Ohio State losses were at home, the Wolverines were reminded of what it takes to hang with a Top-5 team. Last week against the Spartans, they were reminded of what it takes to beat one of the most successful programs of the last decade on that team’s home floor. After the loss to Ohio State, Beilein said of his team "We're close, but to get over the hump, you've got to be better than the breaks, you've got to be better than the other team." Leading scorer Darius Morris (15.4 PPG, 7.2 APG) had 18 in the loss to the Buckeyes, while freshman Tim Hardaway Jr. (11.8 PPG) chipped in with 11. Zack Novak (9.9 PPG) was clutch against the Spartans, pouring in 19 points to help trigger the upset.
The bad news for Michigan, Thursday night’s game will be played in Columbus, and frankly it doesn’t matter where the Buckeyes play because they haven’t been beaten anywhere. Ohio State has the look of a team with no equal and no weaknesses. Four starters are scoring in double figures, led by “Big Sully,” Jared Sullinger (18.2 PPG, 9.9 RPG, 57.7 FG%) who leads the team in scoring and rebounding. But no Big Ten team has done a better job defending Sullinger than Michigan did in the earlier meeting, holding him to just 12 points with six turnovers and five fouls. As a team, the Buckeyes are making 50.0% of its shots, good for third-best in the nation. The lowest FG Pct. of any starter is William Buford’s 46.0%. Jon Diebler (11.3 PPG) is shooting an unconscious 47.7% from three-point territory. Meanwhile David Lighty (12.4 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.5 SPG) does everything except drive the team bus (only because he hasn’t been asked). Despite the stellar numbers, Ohio State has had its fair share of close calls for an undefeated team. They beat Minnesota by just three points at home, were tied with Penn State with under 20 seconds to play, and just last Saturday escaped from Evanston with a 58-57 nail-biter over the Northwestern Wildcats. Several teams have proven that they can stick with the Buckeyes, including Michigan. The trick isn’t in sticking with them, the trick is in beating them.
The Buckeyes are 5-9 ATS as a double-digit favorite this season while Michigan is 3-0 ATS as 10-point underdog. The Wolverines are also riding a four-game ATS win streak in this series. These two highly-rated FoxSheets trends also side with Michigan to keep it close and cover the spread.
Play Against - Favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (OHIO STATE) - an excellent offensive team (>=76 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG), after a combined score of 125 points or less. (43-14 since 1997.) (75.4%, +27.6 units. Rating = 3*).
OHIO STATE is 2-12 ATS (14.3%, -11.2 Units) versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was OHIO STATE 69.8, OPPONENT 60.7 - (Rating = 3*).
Seven of the past eight meetings in Columbus have finished Under the total and these two FoxSheets coaching trends also expect this game to finish Under the total.
John Beilein is 12-2 UNDER (85.7%, +9.8 Units) off a home win against a conference rival as the coach of MICHIGAN. The average score was MICHIGAN 58.2, OPPONENT 64.4 - (Rating = 3*).
Thad Matta is 22-6 UNDER (78.6%, +15.4 Units) versus teams who average 33 or less rebounds/game on the season after 15+games as the coach of OHIO STATE. The average score was OHIO ST 65.8, OPPONENT 57.1 - (Rating = 3*).
MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (13-9, 3-6 in Big Ten)
at OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (22-0, 9-0 in Big Ten)
Tip-off: Thursday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Ohio State -16, Total: 130.5
Now THIS is a win that would make a season.
With a 13-9 record, John Beilein’s Michigan Wolverines have put together a season full of close calls, sloppy play, and wild inconsistency, laboring their way to a 3-6 mark in conference play and a six-game losing streak earlier this month. They have struggled at times to score (67.1 PPG, 236th in Division I), rebound (33.0 RPG, 272nd in Division I) and defend (last five opponents shot 53.5% FG). But with all that has gone wrong in Ann Arbor, one thing can make it all better come Thursday night: beat the undefeated, 22-0, number one team in the country, who also happens to be your most-hated rival in the history of mankind, the Ohio State Buckeyes. If the Wolverines can rise up, channeling their inner Schembechler, and go on the road to end the perfect season of “that team to the south,” there could be a rash of babies born in the state of Michigan later this year named “Beilein.”
Before you declare that it cannot happen, remember that Michigan is just a week removed from its biggest road win of the season, a 61-57 victory over another hated rival, Michigan State. Michigan has also shown an ability to play very well against some of the toughest teams in the country. Earlier this season against then-undefeated Kansas, the Wolverines took Bill Self’s squad to overtime before losing by seven. Then three days later in its first matchup against Ohio State, they battled tooth and nail before the Buckeyes escaped with a 68-64 win. The Wolverines pulled to within two with under a minute to play after trailing by 12 in the second half, but the rally would fall short. While the Kansas and Ohio State losses were at home, the Wolverines were reminded of what it takes to hang with a Top-5 team. Last week against the Spartans, they were reminded of what it takes to beat one of the most successful programs of the last decade on that team’s home floor. After the loss to Ohio State, Beilein said of his team "We're close, but to get over the hump, you've got to be better than the breaks, you've got to be better than the other team." Leading scorer Darius Morris (15.4 PPG, 7.2 APG) had 18 in the loss to the Buckeyes, while freshman Tim Hardaway Jr. (11.8 PPG) chipped in with 11. Zack Novak (9.9 PPG) was clutch against the Spartans, pouring in 19 points to help trigger the upset.
The bad news for Michigan, Thursday night’s game will be played in Columbus, and frankly it doesn’t matter where the Buckeyes play because they haven’t been beaten anywhere. Ohio State has the look of a team with no equal and no weaknesses. Four starters are scoring in double figures, led by “Big Sully,” Jared Sullinger (18.2 PPG, 9.9 RPG, 57.7 FG%) who leads the team in scoring and rebounding. But no Big Ten team has done a better job defending Sullinger than Michigan did in the earlier meeting, holding him to just 12 points with six turnovers and five fouls. As a team, the Buckeyes are making 50.0% of its shots, good for third-best in the nation. The lowest FG Pct. of any starter is William Buford’s 46.0%. Jon Diebler (11.3 PPG) is shooting an unconscious 47.7% from three-point territory. Meanwhile David Lighty (12.4 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.5 SPG) does everything except drive the team bus (only because he hasn’t been asked). Despite the stellar numbers, Ohio State has had its fair share of close calls for an undefeated team. They beat Minnesota by just three points at home, were tied with Penn State with under 20 seconds to play, and just last Saturday escaped from Evanston with a 58-57 nail-biter over the Northwestern Wildcats. Several teams have proven that they can stick with the Buckeyes, including Michigan. The trick isn’t in sticking with them, the trick is in beating them.
The Buckeyes are 5-9 ATS as a double-digit favorite this season while Michigan is 3-0 ATS as 10-point underdog. The Wolverines are also riding a four-game ATS win streak in this series. These two highly-rated FoxSheets trends also side with Michigan to keep it close and cover the spread.
Play Against - Favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (OHIO STATE) - an excellent offensive team (>=76 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG), after a combined score of 125 points or less. (43-14 since 1997.) (75.4%, +27.6 units. Rating = 3*).
OHIO STATE is 2-12 ATS (14.3%, -11.2 Units) versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was OHIO STATE 69.8, OPPONENT 60.7 - (Rating = 3*).
Seven of the past eight meetings in Columbus have finished Under the total and these two FoxSheets coaching trends also expect this game to finish Under the total.
John Beilein is 12-2 UNDER (85.7%, +9.8 Units) off a home win against a conference rival as the coach of MICHIGAN. The average score was MICHIGAN 58.2, OPPONENT 64.4 - (Rating = 3*).
Thad Matta is 22-6 UNDER (78.6%, +15.4 Units) versus teams who average 33 or less rebounds/game on the season after 15+games as the coach of OHIO STATE. The average score was OHIO ST 65.8, OPPONENT 57.1 - (Rating = 3*).
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