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**StarDust Bum** · 02-02-2011, 06:56 PM

Nuggets look to retain home dominance over Blazers

PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS (26-22)

at DENVER NUGGETS (28-20)

Tip-off: Wednesday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Denver -7, Total: 203.5

The Nuggets return to Denver for the first of a brief two-game homestand on Wednesday when they take on the Portland Trail Blazers, who have lost their past five trips to the Rocky Mountains.

Denver has done poorly ATS this season posting a 21-25 record. While they have a 20-5 record at home SU, that number falls to 11-12-2 ATS. However, they have played much better ATS at home recently, winning five of their past six and going 7-2-1 over their past 10 games. The Nuggets come home after suffering two bad losses on the road against two sub-.500 teams in the Eastern Conference. On Sunday and Monday they lost consecutive games at Philadelphia, 110-99, and at New Jersey, 115-99. They allowed both opponents to shoot over 53.0 percent from the field, as they combined to shoot 54.1 percent. The Nuggets have been horrible defensively over the past nine games, allowing each opponent to score 100 points, surrendering 107.6 PPG over that span. Carmelo Anthony has scored 33 or more points in four of his past eight games, combining for 35.3 PPG over those four games. However, he is averaging just 19.0 PPG in the other four games, and his season numbers have dropped considerably from last season. Anthony is averaging 4.3 PPG less than last season, while shooting 2.4 percent lower from the field and two percent lower from both the three-point and free throw line. Perhaps all the trade talk has affected his game after all.

The Blazers enter Wednesday 22-22 ATS after an impressive 99-86 win over the Spurs at home on Tuesday, snapping a two-game losing streak SU and ATS. They are 9-12 ATS on the road, but have won three of their last four. LaMarcus Aldridge scored a career-high 40 points on Tuesday night on 16-of-23 shooting, after scoring a total of 26 points on 12-of-34 FG over his previous two games. The Blazers recovered their shooting touch overall, connecting on 50.7% from the field, after combining to make just 38.1% FG in their previous two games -- both losses at home -- to Boston and Sacramento. Wesley Matthews (16.2 PPG) scored 21 points on Tuesday and is anxious to improve on his last road game when he scored just four points on 1-for-7 shooting at Sacramento on January 19.

Denver is 20-7 ATS (74%) when hosting Portland since 1996, including five straight wins (SU and ATS). The Nuggets are a different team at home lately and I’m taking them minus the points. The FoxSheets provide two more reasons to side with Denver to win and cover again:

Play Against - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PORTLAND) - avenging a loss vs. opponent of 10 points or more, playing with 3 or more days rest. (80-43 since 1996.) (65%, +32.7 units. Rating = 2*).

Play On - Any team (DENVER) - explosive offensive team (>=102 PPG) against an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more. (42-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.4%, +24.4 units. Rating = 2*).

And although 19 of the past 27 meetings in Denver have finished Over the total, the FoxSheets show a four-star trend expecting the game to finish Under the total:

Play Under - Any team (PORTLAND) - extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team. (37-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.4%, +27.1 units. Rating = 4*).

**StarDust Bum** · 02-02-2011, 06:57 PM

UConn tries to hand Syracuse its 5th straight loss

SYRACUSE ORANGE (18-4, 5-4 in Big East)

at CONNECTICUT HUSKIES (17-3, 5-3 in Big East)

Tip-off: Wednesday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Connecticut -3, Total: 139.5

Like the winter of 2010-11, the Syracuse basketball season has turned cold, unrelenting and treacherous, historic in its misery, and threatening to break records heretofore unseen. Wednesday night in Hartford, Jim Boeheim’s squad will face-off against the Connecticut Huskies in an attempt to break its fortnight-long freefall as it tries to put an end to the school’s longest losing streak in five years. To do so, the Orange will have to navigate their way around a vicious ice storm in the northeast, and a storm of panic and concern on the court.

Actually, there will be two teams on the XL Center floor attempting to break a losing streak, albeit a losing streak of one for the hosts. The Huskies are coming off a 79-78 double-overtime loss to Louisville at home Saturday afternoon, in a game where Jim Calhoun’s team blew a nine-point lead in the second half. While Connecticut had three players score 20+ points in the game, the team shot just 37.7% on the day, as Kemba Walker suffered through a difficult 7-for-23 afternoon, including shots at the end of regulation and the end of the second overtime that could have won the game.

Defensive breakdowns in crucial situations also hurt the Huskies, as Cardinals guard Peyton Siva (19 points, seven assists) consistently hurt the UConn guards with his dribble penetration. The bright spots once again belonged to the freshmen. Shabazz Napier scored 20 of his 23 points after halftime, and Jeremy Lamb continued his impressive scoring surge of late, hitting double figures for the fifth straight game. He is averaging 17.6 PPG during this stretch as he continues to provide an athletic scoring complement to Walker (24.2 PPG) who may be starting to tire. Walker is shooting 24-for-74 over his last four games (32.4%) and 6-for-26 from three-point range. Walker is shooting just 38.2% FG in Big East play.

If Walker turns his offensive fortunes around, the credit may go to a Syracuse 2-3 zone defense that has been much more charitable than it has been suffocating. In the 76-70 loss at Marquette Saturday, the Golden Eagles shot 52.3%, including 46.2% from downtown. When Seton Hall beat Syracuse 90-68 in the previous game, the Pirates shot 54.1% FG on 58.6% from behind the arc. Villanova made 50% of its field-goal attempts for the game and buried 11 three-pointers, while Pittsburgh hit on 48.2% from the floor when they dealt the Orange their first loss of the season. The defensive issues have been deeper than just allowing free reign to perimeter shooters. Rick Jackson (13.2 PPG, 11.5 RPG) and Kris Joseph (15.2 PPG, 4.9 RPG) played a total of 77 minutes Saturday, yet combined to pull down just five rebounds. Boeheim has reluctantly gotten used to seeing his team struggle defensively. "The first half we weren't defending, guys were getting past us too much," he said. He added that the defense did improve considerably in the second half. Scoop Jardine manned things ably on the offensive end, scoring 13 points and tallying a season-high 13 assists, as the Orange battled back from an 11-point halftime deficit to Marquette to tie the game with just over eight minutes to play. Boeheim will try and build on his team’s 20 gritty minutes of play in the second half last Saturday as he seeks to remind his team what they are capable of. But it will take a 40-minute commitment on the defensive end to stop Connecticut’s scorers, and the Orange’s four-game losing streak.

UConn is 7-1 ATS in the past eight home meetings with Syracuse and these two highly-rated FoxSheets trends also back Connecticut to win and cover.

CONNECTICUT is 15-3 ATS (83.3%, +11.7 Units) after 3 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons. The average score was CONNECTICUT 76.5, OPPONENT 62.6 - (Rating = 3*).

Play Against - An underdog (SYRACUSE) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 8+ PPG, after allowing 75 points or more 3 straight games.(22-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (84.6%, +17.6 units. Rating = 3*).

Since 1997, 17-of-24 meetings (70.8%), including 7-of-8 at Connecticut, have finished Under the total and the FoxSheets give two more reasons to bet the Under for Wednesday’s game.

CONNECTICUT is 16-4 UNDER (+11.6 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CONNECTICUT 66.0, OPPONENT 66.5 - (Rating = 3*).

CONNECTICUT is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CONNECTICUT 63.6, OPPONENT 63.4 - (Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 02-02-2011, 06:58 PM

Duke-Maryland renew rivalry Wednesday night

DUKE BLUE DEVILS (19-2, 6-1 in ACC)

at MARYLAND TERRAPINS (14-7, 4-3 in ACC)

Tip-off: Tuesday, 9 p.m. EDT
Line: Duke -4, Total: 149.5

No. 5 Duke looks to rebound from only its second loss of the season when it visits Maryland on Wednesday night.

The Blue Devils are coming off a 93-78 loss to St. John's on Sunday at Madison Square Garden. Duke trailed by as many as 25 points and allowed the Red Storm to shoot 58.2% from the field. It also finished 5-of-26 from three-point range and had 17 turnovers. Nolan Smith (21.0 PPG, 5.6 APG, 4.7 RPG) led the Blue Devils with 32 points, his 20th double-double in 21 games this season. Smith has connected on 20-of-39 from the field in his past two games. Kyle Singler (18.0 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 36.8% three-pointers) added 20 points, but he's still struggling to find his shot. In his past six games, Singler is shooting 38-for-93 (40.9%) overall, and 9-for-34 (26.5%) from long range in the past five contests. However, he did compile his lone double-double of the season (25 points, season-high 10 rebounds) in Duke's 71-64 victory over Maryland on Jan. 9. Smith struggled from the field in that victory over the Terps, hitting only 5-of-18 from the floor for his 20 points. He did manage to add eight assists and seven boards. The Blue Devils are fourth in the nation in scoring (85.3 PPG) and 24th in FG Pct. (47.8%), but they made only 41.9% from the field in the loss to St. John's.

Maryland has won three straight games, including the past two contests by double-digits. The Terrapins defeated Georgia Tech on the road, 74-63, Sunday night. Jordan Williams (17.1 PPG, ACC-best 11.9 RPG) earned his NCAA-leading 18th double-double of the season with 21 points on 8-of-12 shooting and 15 rebounds. His string of 13 consecutive double-doubles was snapped against Virginia on Jan. 27 when he finished with four points and six rebounds in Maryland's 66-42 win over the Cavaliers. Williams had 23 points and 13 boards in the loss to Duke in January. Cliff Tucker (11.4 PPG, 39.2% three-pointers) is the only other Terrapin who scores in double-figures, but he only had six points on 2-for-3 shooting against the Yellow Jackets. Maryland's defense has been a strength this season. It has held opponents to 38.2% shooting, and is limiting teams to 40.2% FG and 29.2% from long range during the three-game winning streak. The Terrapins will attempt to win their first game against a ranked opponent on Wednesday. They are 0-4 this season versus the Top 25, but the four defeats have all come by single-digits (Pittsburgh, 79-70, Illinois, 80-76, Duke, 71-64 and Villanova, 74-66).

Maryland was the only team to beat Duke in the last 19 games of 2009-10. The Terps ended a six-game losing streak to the Blue Devils with a 79-72 home win last March. Duke won the earlier meeting at Cameron Indoor Stadium, 77-56. In terms of ATS, the series has been pretty balanced as Duke holds a slight 16-15 ATS advantage, including 7-6 ATS at Maryland. In conference play, Duke is 2-5 ATS while the Terps have won four of their past six ATS. This highly-rated FoxSheets trend also sides with Maryland to cover the spread on Wednesday night.

Play Against - Road teams as an favorite or pick (DUKE) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game, after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half. (23-4 since 1997.) (85.2%, +18.6 units. Rating = 3*).

And this FoxSheets coaching trend expects a high-scoring game to finish Over the total.

Gary Williams is 27-10 OVER (73.0%, +16.0 Units) off 3 straight wins against conference rivals as the coach of MARYLAND. The average score was MARYLAND 83.2, OPPONENT 76.1 - (Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 02-02-2011, 06:59 PM

Villanova favored by 6 over Marquette

MARQUETTE GOLDEN EAGLES (14-8, 5-4 in Big East)

at VILLANOVA WILDCATS (17-4, 5-3 in Big East)

Tip-off: Wednesday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Villanova -6, Total: 151

In science the question is as follows: what came first, the chicken or the egg? In college basketball in 2011 it goes like this: which is tougher, competing in the Big East, or your next Big East opponent?

Playing in a league with seven ranked teams out of 16 total (with a couple of more teams knocking on the Top-25 door), means that your last opponent, or one of your next two opponents is probably a ranked team, and if they are playing on the road, then the task becomes that much tougher. It also means that the bottom half of the league at the very least will be much more battle-tested than in other leagues (see Friars, Providence for more on this topic). Long story short, its hard to avoid an upset or a losing streak in this league, and even harder to break out of one, as the No. 12 Villanova Wildcats will be trying to do at home Wednesday night when they take on the Marquette Golden Eagles at The Pavilion in suburban Philly.

Villanova has lost three of its past four after winning 11 straight games between December 3 and January 15. Two of the losses have come against ranked opponents, with the combined margin of defeat totaling five points. While its difficult to pinpoint a lot of bad play in ‘Nova’s past four games, its easy to spotlight wildly inconsistent play, and that has hurt them. The Wildcats’ best performance during this stretch came against Syracuse, when they shot 50% and made 11-of-24 three pointers in the Carrier Dome to defeat the Orange 83-72. In the other three games, they have averaged 64.3 PPG, shot 36.1% from the floor and 24.5% from beyond the arc. The struggles of second leading scorer Corey Stokes (15.2 PPG) have in essence paralleled the struggles of his team. Stokes has scored in single digits in four of his past seven games, and is 15-of-58 (25.9%) from the floor over his last five games. Stokes, who expects to play despite injuring his toe last game, is hoping that past success against Marquette will be indicative of future results come Wednesday night. Stokes averaged 19.0 points in two games versus the Golden Eagles last season, and has shot 53.3 percent from 3-point range and 56.7 percent overall in seven career games against them.

Marquette will be playing its fourth consecutive game against a ranked opponent, and will be going for a split during this difficult stretch after losing to Notre Dame and Connecticut, and beating Syracuse last Saturday 76-70. Jae Crowder led the Golden Eagles with 25 points and seven boards, while Jimmy Butler and Darius Johnson-Odom added 19 and 17 points respectively to help Buzz Williams’ squad defeat Syracuse for the first time since becoming a member of the Big East. The Golden Eagles were impressive in shooting 52.3% for the game, including 6-of-13 from beyond the arc. With a team FG Pct. approaching 50% and a three-point FG efficiency sitting at 37.7%, Marquette is one of the sharpest shooting teams in the conference and will test Villanova’s defensive versatility. If last season is any indication, this should be a spectacular game played in the 70’s (the score, not the decade). Villanova beat Marquette twice in a span of seven days last January, 74-72 in Milwaukee, and 78-76 in Philly, before falling to the Golden Eagles 80-76 on the second day of the Big East Tournament.

Marquette is 8-2 ATS in the past 10 meetings between these schools, and is an impressive 7-2 ATS against Big East foes. However, the Wildcats are nearly as good in conference (6-2 ATS), and are also 7-3 ATS at home this year. This game could come down to rebounding. The Golden Eagles have a minus-6.7 RPG margin on the road this season while the Wildcats boast a +9.9 RPG advantage in their 12 home games. The FoxSheets give two more reasons to expect Villanova to win and cover.

VILLANOVA is 17-3 ATS (85.0%, +13.7 Units) in home games versus good foul drawing teams - attempting >=25 free throws/game since 1997. The average score was VILLANOVA 82.8, OPPONENT 69.8 - (Rating = 3*).

VILLANOVA is 14-3 ATS (82.4%, +10.7 Units) in home games after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite over the last 3 seasons. The average score was VILLANOVA 81.5, OPPONENT 62.9 - (Rating = 2*).

Eight of the past 10 meetings, including five of the past six, have finished Over the total and this highly-rated FoxSheets trend also likes the Over for Wednesday’s game.

MARQUETTE is 14-2 OVER (87.5%, +11.8 Units) in road games vs. teams who are called for 3+ less fouls/game than their opponents after 15+ games since 1997.The average score was MARQUETTE 72.8, OPPONENT 81.1 - (Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 02-02-2011, 07:00 PM

Hornets-Thunder both try to end 3-game ATS losing skid

NEW ORLEANS HORNETS (32-18)

at OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (30-17)

Tip-off: Wednesday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Oklahoma City -7.5, Total: 195

Oklahoma City has had a few days to simmer down after an emotional loss to the Heat on Sunday. While their Wednesday night rematch with the Hornets won’t be surrounded by nearly as much hype, it’s a more crucial game as far as playoff seeding goes.

On Jan. 24, the Thunder led by as many as 15 in New Orleans before a second-half collapse. The Hornets’ swarming defense got to Kevin Durant, who missed all five of his fourth-quarter shots, and David West buried a contested 20-footer with less than a second left to give New Orleans a 91-89 win.

The Hornets will have a slightly different look on Wednesday, though. Center Emeka Okafor is out with an oblique injury, and while his replacement, Jason Smith, dropped 20 points against Washington Tuesday night, he’s a major defensive downgrade.

Since their last matchup, Durant has found his shooting touch again. Over his past three games, he’s averaging 40.0 PPG (and 11.7 RPG) on 48.7% shooting from the field. This game will again pair two of the NBA’s premier point guards, and they’ve enjoyed going at each other. Oklahoma City’s Russell Westbrook has averaged 21.0 PPG on 57.1% shooting and 9.8 assists against New Orleans over the past two seasons, while the Hornets’ Chris Paul has gone for 18.3 PPG, 10.8 APG and 4.0 SPG against the Thunder.

And while the Thunder are well-rested, the Hornets have had a wild recent travel schedule. They closed out a disappointing West Coast mini-swing by losing back-to-back nights in Sacramento and Phoenix. They had one day off before a home game against Washington Tuesday night (a 97-89 win). They then left for snowbound Oklahoma City. The game is set to tip off as scheduled.

Both teams have lost three straight games ATS, but the Thunder are 7-3 ATS in the past 10 meetings with the Hornets. The FoxSheets are pointing towards the Oklahoma City on Wednesday night, and so am I:

Play Against - Road underdogs (NEW ORLEANS) - after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season. (60-26 over the last 5 seasons, 69.8%, +31.4 units. Rating = 3*).

This five-star FoxSheets trend sides with the Under.

NEW ORLEANS is 12-0 UNDER (+12.0 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season. The average score was NEW ORLEANS 91.2, OPPONENT 82.3 - (Rating = 5*).

**StarDust Bum** · 02-02-2011, 07:00 PM

Missouri seeks first conference road win in Stillwater

MISSOURI TIGERS (17-4, 3-3 in Big 12)

at OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS (14-7, 2-5 in Big 12)

Tip-off: Wednesday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Missouri -2, Total: 145

No. 14 Missouri looks for its first road win in the Big 12 this season when it visits struggling Oklahoma State on Wednesday night.

The Tigers are 0-3 in conference road games and just 1-3 in true road games for the season. They're coming off a 71-58 loss at Texas on Saturday, when they struggled through their worst scoring (58) and shooting performances of the season (33.9%). But the contrast between home and away is clearly apparent on defense, where the Tigers have failed to stop opponents on the road. In its three league home games, Mizzou has surrendered 60.7 PPG and allowed opponents to shoot 36.4%. In its three road games, the Tigers have allowed 83.7 PPG on 48.9% shooting. Phil Pressey (6.0 PPG, 3.9 APG) and Kim English (10.6 PPG, 39.2% three-pointers) were the only players who reached double figures versus the Longhorns. Pressey had 12 points, five assists and three steals off the bench for only his fourth 10-point game of the season, while English finished with 10 points on 3-of-8 shooting. Leading scorer Marcus Denmon (16.8 PPG) had a season-low seven points, and saw his 17-game double-figure scoring streak come to an end, while second-leading scorer Ricardo Ratliffe (11.6 PPG, 6.8 APG) finished with eight points. The Tigers, who are sixth in the nation in points with 83.7 PPG and 11th in assists (17.4 APG), might be without the services of Laurence Bowers (11.1 PPG, 5.9 RPG) for Wednesday's game. Bowers suffered a mild concussion at Texas and is listed as day-to-day.

Oklahoma State has lost three straight games and five of its past six contests. Its only win during that stretch came at home against lowly Iowa State in overtime, 96-87, on Jan. 19. But just one of those five defeats were at Gallagher-Iba Arena, where Oklahoma State is 29-2 since late January 2009. Both home losses in this span came against Texas, including a 61-46 defeat in its last home game on Jan. 26. Marshall Moses, who leads the team with 15.5 PPG and 8.0 RPG, had 13 points on 5-of-13 shooting in Saturday's 75-74 overtime heartbreaker at Texas Tech. And he has struggled to find his offense against Missouri in the past three matchups, as he's averaging just 8.0 points per game. Second-leading scorer Keiton Page (13.7 PPG) finished with 26 points on 6-of-15 shooting versus the Red Raiders, including 4-of-8 from long range and 10-for-10 from the foul line. He has scored a combined 14 points in his three games versus Mizzou. OSU is 1-2 against Top 25 teams this season. The Cowboys beat Kansas State, 76-62, and lost to Texas by 15 and Texas A&M, 71-48.

Missouri has won the last two meetings at Oklahoma State and four of the past five contests overall versus Oklahoma State. Mizzou won last season's game in Columbia, 95-80, as English scored 20 points and hit four three-pointers. The Tigers lead the all-time series 75-39, but the Cowboys hold a 27-21 edge in Stillwater. Mizzou, 10-4 ATS in the past 14 meetings with OSU, is trying to win three straight in Stillwater for the first time since Jan. 19, 1980-Feb. 13, 1982. This FoxSheets trend also likes Missouri to cover the spread on Wednesday night.

MISSOURI is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons. The average score was MISSOURI 79.8, OPPONENT 71.3 - (Rating = 1*).

The FoxSheets also provide a four-star trend supporting the Over for the side action.

Play Over - All teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (MISSOURI) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (40-42.5%), in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) after 15+ games. (58-20 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.4%, +36 units. Rating = 4*).

**StarDust Bum** · 02-02-2011, 07:01 PM

Bulls look for 6th straight win visiting Clippers

CHICAGO BULLS (33-14)

at LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS (19-28)

Tip-off: Wednesday, 10:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Chicago -2, Total: 194

The Clippers look to win their 10th straight at home for the first time since Dec. 5, 1975-Jan. 6, 1976, when the Clippers were known as the Buffalo Braves and current coach Vinny Del Negro was nine years old.

Chicago comes into Wednesday’s game on a five-game win streak (4-1 ATS) and winners of eight of its past nine (6-2-1 ATS). Derrick Rose has solidified himself this year as one of the top NBA point guards averaging 24.4 points and 8.1 assists. This has a lot to do with Rose’s dedication in the offseason to improving his 3-point jump shot. Rose has already made 73 threes this year, whereas he only made 32 in his first two seasons combined. The Bulls are third in the Eastern Conference (33-14 SU) and the fifth-best team in the league ATS (27-19). Their success is the result from being third in the NBA in defense (92.0) and leading the NBA in rebounding margin (+4.2 RPG). Chicago is going to need Carlos Boozer (19.9 PPG, 10.2 RPG) to play as he did Saturday, scoring 24 points and pulling down 10 rebounds in the 110-89 win over the Pacers. The last time these teams met on Dec. 18, the Clippers handed the Bulls one of their four losses at home this season, beating them 100-99.

The Clippers have been below average overall this season (19-28 SU), but solid at home (16-13 SU & ATS). A big part of their nine-game home win streak is Blake Griffin (22.8 PPG, 12.7 RPG), who has averaged 27.7 points and 13.3 rebounds during the winning streak. Griffin also gave a nice preview for the upcoming dunk contest by his play Monday, where he scored 32 points and wowed the crowd with high-flying dunks and alley-oops. The Clippers also need their other high-flying act, DeAndre Jordan (7.0 PPG, 7.3 RPG), to give them a spark as he did scoring 16 points in the 105-98 win Monday against the Bucks. The Clippers will be without their leading scorer Eric Gordon (24.1 PPG) for the fifth straight game because of a wrist injury. If Los Angeles wants to keep it competitive against the lockdown defense of the Bulls, Randy Foye is going to have to continue to step up, averaging 19.0 PPG in Gordon’s absence.

Chicago has been disappointing on the road thus far this year (10-10 SU, 11-9 ATS), but is coming in playing terrific defense during their five-game win streak by not allowing a team to score over 90 points. The Bulls are 15-5 ATS against good offensive teams (99+ PPG) by frustrating them with relentless defense. The Clippers are a sexy pick in this game with Del Negro fired up against his old team and Los Angeles being red hot at home. But without Eric Gordon, I can’t see the Clippers generating enough offense to beat the hard-nosed Bulls. I like Chicago to win and cover a close contest at the Staples Center. The FoxSheets provide another reason to pick the Bulls:

Play On - Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHICAGO) - avenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a home favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record. (40-16 since 1996.) (71.4%, +22.4 units. Rating = 2*).

Chicago’s stellar defense has kept the final score Under the total in six of the past seven games, and this FoxSheets trend also supports playing the Under on Wednesday:

Play Under - Road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (CHICAGO) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days. (24-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.7%, +19.6 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 02-02-2011, 07:02 PM

Knicks slight favorite hosting Dallas

DALLAS MAVERICKS (32-15)

at NEW YORK KNICKS (25-22)

Tip-off: Wednesday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Line: New York -2, Total: 210

New York’s defense has improved from putrid last year to merely inconsistent this season, but they are in for a major challenge against Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavs on Wednesday night.

After a shaky couple of first games back from an ankle injury, Nowitzki has averaged 20.3 PPG on 57.9% shooting from the field over the past three games, helping Dallas extend its win streak to five (granted, four of those five were home games and the other was at New Jersey). He’s heating up just in time for his annual visit to Madison Square Garden, where he’s simply torched the nets over the years. Over the past eight seasons, he’s averaging 29.4 PPG on 51.9% shooting as the Mavs have gone 7-1 (SU and ATS) at the Garden.

The Knicks will once again turn to Amar’e Stoudemire to carry the offensive load. Stoudemire has averaged 25.3 PPG in 12 games against the Mavericks over the past five seasons, but this year Dallas has long, athletic defensive specialist Tyson Chandler to combat him. With Chandler this season, the Mavs are allowing nearly five fewer points per game than they did last year. Stoudemire, who has been dealing with soreness in his knee, is expected to play. He scored 33 in a 124-106 win over Detroit on Sunday.

The Mavs are still shuffling their lineup in the wake of small forward Caron Butler’s season-ending knee injury. Newly-acquired Peja Stojakovic (knee) is still not ready for game action. Sasha Pavlovic, who was signed to back-to-back, 10-day contracts, had started six consecutive games in January, but was dropped after their Jan. 29 game in Atlanta. Journeyman forward Brian Cardinal got the start on Monday night against Washington, a 102-92 win, but was the only Dallas player to post a negative plus/minus on the night (-1).

I’d feel better about the Mavs if Nowitzki had been burning stiffer competition over the past few games. But with their rotation still in flux, I’m leaning towards New York. The FoxSheets like the Knicks as well:

Play Against - Underdogs (DALLAS) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO) vs. an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO) after 42+ games. (51-19 over the last 5 seasons, 72.9%, +30.1 units. Rating = 3*).

NEW YORK is 19-5 ATS (79.2%, +13.5 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins this season. The average score was NEW YORK 109.2, OPPONENT 105.9 - (Rating = 3*).

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The Bum's Wednesday's Best Bets NBA-NHL-NCAAB + PODS !

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