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This is my biggest NCAA BB play so far this year, and I don't think it will be popular.
Illinois -8 over Penn State. Illinois lost to PSU on 1/11 by a score of 57-55, which began Illinois' current 1-4 skid out of the top 25. Illinois needs this game very badly or the wheels may fall off altogether. Illinois is 3-0 at home ATS as a Big 10 favorite, winning at home by 8 over Wisky, by 25 over Northwestern and by 9 over Michigan State. Their only loss at home was as a 3 point dog to Ohio State. On the other hand PSU has been playing lights out recently, having won 4 of their last 6 games. Their 2 losses were to Purdue and Ohio State by a total of 4 points. That's why this line doesn't make much sense. I suspect everyone and their brother will jump on PSU so you may want to wait if you like Illinois because I suspect this line may go down. Big 10 home favorites of 9 points or less are 15-5-1 ATS this year.
In the Big 10 Illinois ranks second in the conference in both FG% (48%) and 3 pt. FG% (43%). Defensively they are leading the conference in both FG defense (38%) and 3 point FG defense (30%). In all games Illinois is shooting 47% from the field which is 44th in the nation and 41% from 3 point range, which is 4th in the nation. In all games Illinois is holding opponents to 39% shooting, which is 36th nationally and 30% from 3 point range, which is 27th nationally. That's why their performance over the last 3 weeks has been puzzling. I think Illinois breaks out tonight and wins by 15 or more.
As a side note they are expecting a foot or more of snow in Champaign. Illinois has never postponed a home game because of weather. Illinois Sports Information Director said the game will only be postponed if PSU doesn't make it in by tipoff. Penn State's charter flight was diverted to Evansville Indiana last night. The PSU SI Director said the team will try to reach Champaign by bus sometime on Tuesday. Sleeping on a bus doesn't help their chances . BOL to all.
Illinois -8 over Penn State. Illinois lost to PSU on 1/11 by a score of 57-55, which began Illinois' current 1-4 skid out of the top 25. Illinois needs this game very badly or the wheels may fall off altogether. Illinois is 3-0 at home ATS as a Big 10 favorite, winning at home by 8 over Wisky, by 25 over Northwestern and by 9 over Michigan State. Their only loss at home was as a 3 point dog to Ohio State. On the other hand PSU has been playing lights out recently, having won 4 of their last 6 games. Their 2 losses were to Purdue and Ohio State by a total of 4 points. That's why this line doesn't make much sense. I suspect everyone and their brother will jump on PSU so you may want to wait if you like Illinois because I suspect this line may go down. Big 10 home favorites of 9 points or less are 15-5-1 ATS this year.
In the Big 10 Illinois ranks second in the conference in both FG% (48%) and 3 pt. FG% (43%). Defensively they are leading the conference in both FG defense (38%) and 3 point FG defense (30%). In all games Illinois is shooting 47% from the field which is 44th in the nation and 41% from 3 point range, which is 4th in the nation. In all games Illinois is holding opponents to 39% shooting, which is 36th nationally and 30% from 3 point range, which is 27th nationally. That's why their performance over the last 3 weeks has been puzzling. I think Illinois breaks out tonight and wins by 15 or more.
As a side note they are expecting a foot or more of snow in Champaign. Illinois has never postponed a home game because of weather. Illinois Sports Information Director said the game will only be postponed if PSU doesn't make it in by tipoff. Penn State's charter flight was diverted to Evansville Indiana last night. The PSU SI Director said the team will try to reach Champaign by bus sometime on Tuesday. Sleeping on a bus doesn't help their chances . BOL to all.
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