The Bum's Friday's Best Bets NBA-NCAAB !

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Trending: NBA returning home from road trip


In this installment of our NBA Trending column, we broke down teams returning home from road trips of at least two games. There have been 162 total games involving a home team coming off multiple road games, and all numbers are through Tuesday, Jan. 25. Below is what we found:

RETURNING HOME STRAIGHT UP
Returning home SU as Favorite
Total: 82-32 (72%)
2-Game Trip: 52-15 (78%)
3-Game Trip: 17-6 (74%)
4-Game Trip: 9-7 (56%)
5-Game Trip: 4-4 (50%)
The returning home favorites have taken care of business SU at a 72% success rate, as compared to all other home teams this season winning 60% of the time. Teams returning from 2-3-game trips are 69-21 (77%), while 4+ trips are just 13-11 (54%). The Central Division is a combined 15-3 in this scenario and the best teams in this category (minimum 4 games) are Atlanta 6-0, New Orleans 4-0, San Antonio 4-0 and Oklahoma City 7-1. The only four sub-.500 teams in this category are New Jersey 0-1, Denver 1-2, Toronto 1-2 and Houston 2-3.
Returning home SU as Underdog
Total: 18-30 (38%)
2-Game Trip: 7-11 (39%)
3-Game Trip: 6-12 (33%)
4-Game Trip: 5-3 (63%)
5-Game Trip: 0-4 (0%)
There is not a whole lot of deviation here despite the small sample size of returning home as a dog. The only four teams with at least four games in this scenario are New Jersey 4-2, Detroit 2-2, Cleveland 2-3 and Toronto 1-3.

Returning home SU vs. East
Total: 56-32 (64%)
2-Game Trip: 34-11 (76%)
3-Game Trip: 12-14 (46%)
4-Game Trip: 6-3 (67%)
5-Game Trip: 4-4 (50%)
When we divide these games up between East and West, we see that 2-game road trip returnees win 76% (34-11) of the time against Eastern teams as compared to a mediocre 51% of the time (22-21) when the road trip is three games or more. Six undefeated teams in this scenario are New Orleans 5-0, Atlanta 4-0, Boston 3-0, New York 3-0, Indiana 2-0 and Utah 1-0. Phoenix and Sacramento, both 1-2, are the only teams with losing records among those with more than two games in this scenario.

Returning home SU vs. West
Total: 44-30 (59%)
2-Game Trip: 25-15 (63%)
3-Game Trip: 11-4 (73%)
4-Game Trip: 8-7 (53%)
5-Game Trip: 0-4 (0%)
Like the East above, these splits are also worth noting. A trip of 2 or 3 games wins 65% (36-19) of the time versus Western Conference teams while a trip of 4+ games yields just a 42% (8-11) win rate. The best unbeatens here are Oklahoma City 5-0, Memphis 4-0, San Antonio 4-0 and L.A. Lakers 3-0.


RETURNING HOME AGAINST THE SPREAD
Returning home ATS as Favorite
Total: 54-58-2 (48%)
2-Game Trip: 33-33-1 (50%)
3-Game Trip: 12-11 (52%)
4-Game Trip: 7-8-1 (47%)
5-Game Trip: 2-6 (25%)
Now we get into the nitty gritty of Against the Spread. Despite the 72% SU success rate for returning home favorites, that rate is a subpar 48% ATS (54-58-2). The numbers dip to 38% (9-14-1) when considering only road trips of at 4+ games. Indiana 3-0 and Cleveland 1-0 are the only unbeatens in this scenario while Utah 0-4 and Toronto 0-3 are the worst of the five teams winless in this category.
Returning home ATS as Underdog
Total: 24-23-1 (51%)
2-Game Trip: 9-8-1 (53%)
3-Game Trip: 8-10 (44%)
4-Game Trip: 5-3 (63%)
5-Game Trip: 2-2 (50%)
Not surprisingly, the 51% Underdog ATS success rate is much higher than the 38% SU mark. The sample size is too small for the deviations to mean much, so let’s keep going.

Returning home ATS vs. East
Total: 43-44-1 (48%)
2-Game Trip: 23-21-1 (52%)
3-Game Trip: 12-14 (46%)
4-Game Trip: 6-3 (67%)
5-Game Trip: 2-6 (25%)
We expected this number to be a bit higher with the corresponding 64% SU vs. East success rate in this category. The biggest reason for the discrepancy is the poor play of Western teams against the East. The West is 12-23 ATS (34%) here while the East home returners are 31-21-1 ATS (60%) against their own kind. The Central Division is 14-6 ATS (70%) against the East, as Indiana is 2-0 while Chicago and Cleveland are both 3-1.

Returning home ATS vs. West
Total: 35-27-2 (49%)
2-Game Trip: 19-20-2 (49%)
3-Game Trip: 8-7 (53%)
4-Game Trip: 6-8-1 (43%)
5-Game Trip: 2-2 (50%)
This 49% win rate is understandably lower than the SU rate of 59%, with six teams at 0-2 and Utah at 0-3. The big winners here are Memphis 4-0, L.A. Lakers 3-0, New Jersey 3-0 and Oklahoma City 4-1.


RETURNING HOME SHOOTING, OVER/UNDER
Lastly, we wanted to see if teams returning home had tired legs leading to a lower FG Pct and/or more occurrences of the Under. Returning home teams, who usually get at least one off day after a multi-game road trip, appear to be getting their rest since they are out-shooting opponents 54% of the time. San Antonio, 4-0, Atlanta 5-1 and L.A. Lakers 4-1 are the top NBA clubs in this situation. However, we did confirm that the Under is the better side bet here in nearly every situation, but especially with Philadelphia and Sacramento who are both 4-1 Under. Minnesota 5-1, Portland 4-1 and Charlotte 3-1-1 are good Over plays. Below is the complete breakdown:
Return Home After All Road Trips of 2+ Games
Better FG Pct 88-74 (54%)
Over/Under 73-86-3 (46%)

Return Home After 2-Game Road Trip
Better FG Pct 48-37 (56%)
Over/Under 42-42-1 (50%)

Return Home After 3-Game Road Trip
Better FG Pct 23-18 (56%)
Over/Under 15-26 (37%)

Return Home After 4-Game Road Trip
Better FG Pct 14-10 (58%)
Over/Under 13-9-2 (59%)

Return Home After 5-Game (or more) Road Trip
Better FG Pct 3-9 (25%)
Over/Under 3-9 (25%)

[StarDust Bum]

Bulls go for payback hosting Orlando


ORLANDO MAGIC (30-16)

at CHICAGO BULLS (31-14)


Tip-off: Friday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Orlando -1, Total: 187

The Bulls will look to exact a measure of revenge on the Orlando Magic on Friday. Orlando handed Chicago its worst loss of the season on December 1 at United Center, winning by 29 points.

Since losing three of four, the Magic have won four of their last five. They are 21-24 ATS on the season including 9-13 ATS on the road. They have performed much better ATS recently going 12-5-1 in their past 18 games, which includes a 6-2-1 record ATS on the road. Dwight Howard scored 19 points and grabbed 16 rebounds in the Magic’s 111-96 win at Indiana on Wednesday. He is averaging 25.2 PPG and 14.7 RPG over his past nine games. Howard has struggled a bit in his last four games against the Bulls, averaging just 13.0 PPG and 11.0 RPG, but the Magic have won three of those contests. Ryan Anderson has picked up his game recently. He is averaging 15.9 PPG, while shooting 45.9 percent from behind the arc in his last 11 games.

The Bulls are looking for a push of energy after enjoying a three-day layoff with their last game coming on Monday. This is the fifth game of a six-game homestand for the Bulls who have won three straight and eight of their past 10. Chicago has done well ATS all season posting a 25-19 record, including going 14-10 at home. They are 6-3-1 in their past 10 games ATS, going 4-2-1 at home over that span. Derrick Rose has been suffering from ulcers and is hoping the three off days will help his stomach. He has not fared well against the Magic in his career as his 13.1 PPG is his lowest against any opponent. Rose scored 30 points in the Bulls win over the Magic last January at the United Center (the Bulls last win in this series), but has been held to just 21 total points in the past three games against Orlando. In scoring three points in both the Bulls losses against Orlando on February 10 and March 11 of last season, Rose left each game with injuries supplied by Dwight Howard when Rose was driving to the basket. Carlos Boozer is anxious to get back on the court against the Magic as he was making his season debut from a broken hand in the Bulls loss on December 1. A rusty Boozer scored just five points in 22 minutes. Prior to that game, Boozer was averaging 21.4 PPG, 11.2 RPG and 52.4% FG in 14 previous meetings with Orlando.

Despite a sub-par performance from Howard in their win earlier this season at Chicago, the Magic still outrebounded the Bulls 44-21 and outscored them 46-26 in the paint. I like the Bulls to improve greatly in those areas on Friday with a healthy Boozer and earn the victory at home.

The FoxSheets give another reason to back Chicago:

Play Against - Road teams (ORLANDO) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 175 points or less 2 straight games. (146-90 since 1996.) (61.9%, +47 units. Rating = 2*).

These two FoxSheets trends lean towards the Under for Friday’s game.

Play Under - Home teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (CHICAGO) - after allowing 40 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more. (29-7 since 1996.) (80.6%, +21.3 units. Rating = 3*).

CHICAGO is 21-7 UNDER (75.0%, +13.3 Units) after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season. The average score was CHICAGO 95.9, OPPONENT 88.5 - (Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Knicks getting 6 1/2 points at Atlanta


NEW YORK KNICKS (24-21)

at ATLANTA HAWKS (29-17)


Tip-off: Friday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Atlanta -6.5, Total: 207

After an inspiring win over the Miami Heat without Chris Bosh on Thursday at Madison Square Garden, the New York Knicks travel to Atlanta to take on the Hawks Friday night. The Hawks are hoping to erase a miserable offensive performance in their previous home game against the Hornets on January 21,when they lost 100-59.

After losing six straight and seven of eight, the Knicks have rebounded to win their past two games over the Wizards and Heat at home. The Knicks have the league’s second-best ATS record this season at 28-15-2 (65%), including 3-0-1 in their past four games. After starting the season 3-2 ATS on the road, the Knicks have won 14-of-18 for a 17-6-1 ATS (74%) road record that is tops in the NBA. For most of the season the Knicks ranked in the top-10 in FG Pct., but have really struggled shooting the ball during their recent poor play. In their 10-point loss to the Kings on January 14, the Knicks shot a season-worst 31.5% FG. In their three losses on their last road trip, they shot 40.8% from the field. In their win over the Heat on Thursday night, the Knicks shot 36.1% FG, their lowest shooting percentage in a win this season. Landry Fields scored 19 points, grabbed 13 rebounds and dished out six assists on Thursday night to become the first Knick rookie since Walt Frazier in 1968 to register as many as 13 rebounds and six assists in a game. After recording consecutive games of less than 20 points, Amar’e Stoudemire has averaged 27.0 PPG in his past two games. Stoudemire is averaging 27.3 PPG on 56.2% FG in his past 10 games against the Hawks, including 33.5 PPG in his last four visits to Atlanta.

The Hawks enter Friday having lost two of their past three games overall, including a 98-90 loss at the Bucks on Wednesday. On the season they are 21-25 ATS, which includes a 7-14 record at home where they have lost three straight ATS. The Hawks have really struggled offensively in three of their past four games. They are 2-2 over that span, but other than shooting 50.7% in a 103-87 win at Charlotte on Saturday, they have shot just 37.2% FG in those other three games. In perhaps the worst performance by any team this season, the Hawks shot just 29.1 percent and scored a team-low 59 points in a 41-point loss to the Hornets at HOME. Joe Johnson scored 32 points in the Hawks win at Charlotte, but scored just nine points in the loss to the Hornets and 15 points in the Milwaukee defeat. Johnson scored just seven points in the Hawks win over the Knicks on November 27. Mike Bibby went scoreless on 0-for-7 shooting against the Hornets, but has averaged 11.0 PPG in his past two games on 52.9% FG. He has enjoyed playing against the Knicks in his career as his 15.9 PPG against NY ranks amongst the highest against any team in his career. Jamal Crawford has averaged 16.0 PPG over his past three games, but is shooting just 35.1 percent from the field. Crawford was the Hawks leading scorer, netting 21 points in the Hawks 99-90 win at Madison Square Garden earlier this season.

The Hawks had won 10 straight at home before dropping two of their past three, which includes that horrific loss against the Hornets. The Hawks’ win at MSG earlier this season snapped a three-game losing streak against the Knicks. New York has won its past two games at Atlanta SU and is on a six-game ATS win streak at Philips Arena. However, the Hawks are anxious to delete their last home game from their memory, and beating up on the Knicks would be the perfect cure. I like Atlanta minus the points.

FoxSheets says:

Play Against - Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW YORK) - avenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a favorite, playing with 3 or more days rest. (51-23 since 1996.) (68.9%, +25.7 units. Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

Charlotte looks to stay hot at Golden State


CHARLOTTE BOBCATS (19-25)

at GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (19-26)


Tip-off: Friday, 10:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Golden State -4.5, Total: 203.5

The Bobcats seek their fourth straight road win when they visit struggling Golden State on Friday night.

After reaching the playoffs for the first time in franchise history in 2009, the young and talented Bobcats had high hopes for the 2010 season. Unfortunately, the season did not start off as hoped and resulted in the Hall of Fame coach Larry Brown stepping down and Paul Silas stepping in. Since Silas took over on Dec. 22, Charlotte is (10-6 SU and ATS) and has been playing much better defense giving up 94.5 PPG under Silas compared to 97.6 PPG under Brown. The offense has also improved by 4.0 PPG from 91.8 PPG under Brown to 95.8 PPG with Silas at the helm. Charlotte comes in winners of four of five and had a nice road win at Phoenix on Wednesday 114-107. Against the Suns on Wednesday, Gerald Wallace (15.9 PPG) scored 22 points and Stephen Jackson (18.0 PPG) scored 23 points, each scoring 16 in the final two quarters. The young, sometimes sensitive players really have caught onto Silas’ laid-back style.

Golden State enters Friday’s game losing three straight and two in a row at home. Before the three-game losing streak, Golden State had a four-game home winning run from Jan. 14 to Jan. 21, beating four sub-.400 teams with a combined winning percentage of .324 (Clippers, Nets, Pacers and Kings). This year at the Oracle Arena, the Warriors are 13-9 SU and 12-10 ATS. Monta Ellis (25.8 PPG), who is looking to be the first All-Star for the Warriors since Latrell Sprewell in 1997, had 25 in the Dec. 31 meeting with the Bobcats, a 96-95 win. The electrifying guard that gets the drink stirring for the Warriors is the finally-healthy Stephen Curry (18.7 PPG, 41.1% three-point FG). Curry has been hot the past four games, averaging 25.0 PPG and shooting 53% from the field.

Charlotte is 3-1 (SU and ATS) against the Warriors in the previous four meetings. In the last meeting between the two, a motivated Stephen Jackson had 22 points, six rebounds and four assists against his former team. The Bobcats are solid ATS on the road (11-10) and have been even better on one day’s rest (11-6-1 ATS). When young, talented teams like the Bobcats get in a rhythm and play well together, they are very hard to beat. With a day’s rest and a new attitude, I like Charlotte getting the points.

The Bobcats are 18-6 ATS (75%) against Pacific Division opponents over the past three seasons and these two FoxSheets trends also support picking Charlotte on Friday.

Play Against - Home favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team. (53-25 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.9%, +25.5 units. Rating = 2*).

CHARLOTTE is 19-7 ATS (73.1%, +11.3 Units) in road games after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. The average score was CHARLOTTE 96.5, OPPONENT 96.0 - (Rating = 1*).

Five of the six series games played at Oracle Arena have finished Over the total and this highly-rated FoxSheets trend thinks Friday’s game will finish Over the total as well.

GOLDEN STATE is 20-5 OVER (80.0%, +14.5 Units) in home games versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was GOLDEN STATE 113.3, OPPONENT 113.7 - (Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Friday, January 28Game Score Status Pick Amount

New Jersey - 7:00 PM ET New Jersey +6 500
Indiana - Over 193 500

Memphis - 7:00 PM ET Philadelphia -3.5 500
Philadelphia - Over 194.5 500

Milwaukee - 7:00 PM ET Toronto +2.5 500
Toronto - Under 192.5 500

New York - 7:30 PM ET New York +6.5 500 ( NBA POD )
Atlanta - Under 206 500

Denver - 7:30 PM ET Denver -9.5 500
Cleveland - Under 215.5 500

Detroit - 7:30 PM ET Detroit +10.5 500
Miami - Under 191.5 500

Orlando - 8:00 PM ET Orlando -1 500
Chicago - Under 187 500

Washington - 8:00 PM ET Oklahoma City -10.5 500
Oklahoma City - Over 211 500

Minnesota - 9:00 PM ET Minnesota +7.5 500
Utah - Under 215.5 500

Boston - 10:30 PM ET Phoenix +3.5 500
Phoenix - Over 200 500

Charlotte - 10:30 PM ET Golden State -4.5 500
Golden State - Over 208.5 500 ( NBA TOTAL POD )

Sacramento - 10:30 PM ET L.A. Lakers -12.5 500
L.A. Lakers - Over 200 500


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NCAAB

Friday, January 28Game Score Status Pick Amount

Brown - 7:00 PM ET Brown +14 500
Princeton - Under 136 500

Cornell - 7:00 PM ET Cornell -3.5 500
Dartmouth - Under 128.5 500

Columbia - 7:00 PM ET Harvard -11 500 ( IVY POD )
Harvard - Over 139 500

Yale - 7:00 PM ET Yale +5.5 500
Pennsylvania - Under 130 500

Niagara - 7:00 PM ET Canisius -12 500
Canisius - Over 136.5 500

Siena - 7:00 PM ET Siena +3.5 500
Loyola-Maryland - Over 136.5 500

Manhattan - 7:30 PM ET Fairfield -20 500
Fairfield - Over 118 500

Wright St. - 8:00 PM ET Wright St. +3 500
Wis.-Green Bay - Over 130 500

Detroit - 9:00 PM ET Wis.-Milwaukee -3.5 500
Wis.-Milwaukee - Under 140.5 500