Announcement

**StarDust Bum** · 01-27-2011, 12:07 PM

NBA Betting Preview: Boston at Portland

Boston (34-10 straight up, 21-21-2 against the spread) begins a four-game West Coast road trip with Thursday’s contest at Portland (25-21 SU, 22-22-2 ATS).

The Celtics are currently running away with the Atlantic Division, leading second-place New York by 11 games. Coach Doc Rivers’ team would be the top seed in the Eastern Conference if the regular season ended today.

Boston leads the league in assists per game (24.8), and is second in points allowed (91.8). The Celtics are a modest 14th in points per contest (99.6), and a disappointing 30th in rebounds (38.3).

Portland presently finds itself languishing in fourth place in the Northwest Division, trailing Oklahoma City, Utah and Denver. The Trail Blazers would be the eighth and final seed in the Western Conference if the regular campaign concluded today.

Don Best's Real-Time Odds show Boston as a 4 ½-point road favorite over Portland, with the total set at 183. TNT will provide coverage of Thursday’s contest beginning at 7:30 p.m. PT from Portland’s Rose Garden. The broadcast is preceded by the Heat, Knicks matchup at Madison Square Garden.

Boston got back on the winning track by pummeling Cleveland Tuesday as a 16 ½-point home ‘chalk,’ 112-95. The combined 207 points toppled the 197-point closing total, helping the ‘over’ improve to 6-2 the past eight outings.

The Celtics dominated the contest throughout, and entered halftime with a comfortable 22-point advantage, 67-45. Boston was actually outrebounded by the Cavaliers, 29-25, but prevailed by shooting a blistering 50 percent (42-of-84) from the field and 46 percent (11-of-24) from behind the arc.

Paul Pierce netted all 24 of his points in the first half, while Ray Allen contributed 18. Pierce is listed as ‘probable’ for this contest due to an ankle injury. Point guard Rajon Rondo had 11 and 10 assists in the victory, while Glen Davis and Nate Robinson each added 11.

Portland had its five-game SU winning streak snapped with Monday’s setback to Sacramento as a seven-point home favorite, 96-81. The combined 177 points never seriously threatened the 194-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ cash the second consecutive contest. The Trail Blazers have now failed to cover their past two performances.

Portland trailed the Kings in rebounding (44-39) and assists (19-16), while shooting 40 percent (34-of-86) from the field and 33 percent (5-of-15) from 3-point land. The Trail Blazers defense allowed Sacramento to connect at a 50-percent clip from the field (38-of-76), and 56 percent (5-of-9) from behind the arc.

Guard Wesley Matthews scored 21 points in the loss, while small forward Nicolas Batum had 16 and nine rebounds. Point guard Andre Miller provided 18 and five assists, while forward Dante Cunningham had eight and seven boards.

Boston is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS the previous 10 meetings with Portland. The Celtics topped the Trail Blazers in the only matchup this season Dec. 1 as a seven-point home ‘chalk,’ 99-95. The combined 194 points went ‘over’ the 186 ½-point closing total. The road team is 15-6 ATS the previous 21 meetings in this series.

Boston guard Marquis Daniels (personal) is ‘probable’ versus the Trail Blazers, while center Shaquille O’Neal (hip injury), center Jermaine O’Neal (knee) and guard Delonte West (wrist) are ‘out.’ The Celtics continue their road trip with games against Phoenix, the Los Angeles Lakers and Sacramento.

Portland guard Brandon Roy (knee), forward LaMarcus Aldridge (knee) and center Marcus Camby (knee) are ‘out.’ The Trail Blazers conclude a five-game homestand Tuesday against San Antonio before playing six of their next seven games on the road.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-27-2011, 12:08 PM

NCAA Betting: Vanderbilt at Mississippi State

The No. 22 Vanderbilt Commodores have a 1-4 spread record in their last five games, with the ‘over’ going 4-1. Kevin Stallings’ squad heads south for Thursday’s matchup against the Mississippi State Bulldogs, who are 2-1 ATS in their last three contests.

Vanderbilt picked up its second straight win in Saturday’s 89-70 triumph as a five-point home favorite against the St. Mary’s Gaels. The Commodores hit 52 percent of their field buckets, including 11-of-22 from beyond the arc.

Vanderbilt’s Jeffery Taylor and John Jenkins each logged a team-high 19 points. The duo united to drain 6-of-10 from three-point land, while sinking 12-of-15 free throws.

Commodores guard Lance Goulbourne notched 15 points and 10 boards, finishing with his second straight double-double. The junior forward added two assists, while recording a season-high five turnovers.

The lopsided affair’s combined 159 points leaped ‘over’ the ‘total’ of 148. Vanderbilt outrebounded the Gaels, 37-19, while holding St. Mary’s to 41.9 percent field shooting.

Vanderbilt is 5-2 against the spread in its seven games away from home, with the ‘under’ going 4-3. Goulbourne and Co. have allowed 68 PPG in that span.

Mississippi State saw a two-game win streak end with Saturday’s 86-64 defeat as a 10-point road dog against the Georgia Bulldogs. Rick Stansbury’s squad allowed Georgia to hit 11-of-19 three-point shots, while being outrebounded, 43-21.

Mississippi State’s Dee Bost logged team-highs of 20 points and five assists. The junior guard added five of his team’s seven steals.

Bost’s mate Renardo Sidney finished with 15 points and a team-high nine rebounds. The starting forward (14.5 PPG, 6.3 RPG) is listed as “questionable” by DonBest.com for Thursday’s game due to an illness.

The battle’s combined 150 points soared above the ‘total’ of 138, bringing the ‘over’ to 3-2 in Mississippi State’s last five games. Both squads struggled from the foul line, uniting to hit 24-of-40 free throws.

Mississippi State is 1-6 ATS in its first seven ‘board’ home dates, with Sidney and Co. putting up 75.1 PPG. The ‘over’ is 4-2 in the span’s six games containing a ‘total.’

Mississippi State is 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings against Vanderbilt, with the ‘over’ going 4-1.

The rivals last met this past March in the Southeastern Conference tournament, with the Bulldogs winning, 62-52, as 1 ½-point dogs at Nashville’s Bridgestone Arena. Field buckets came at a premium in the afternoon affair, with both teams uniting to connect at just 37 percent.

Thursday’s tip is scheduled for 4 p.m. (PT), with ESPN2 providing the national television coverage.

Both foes will have one day off before resuming action as part of Saturday’s college hoops slate. Mississippi State remains home to face the No. 23 Florida Gators, while Vanderbilt hosts the Arkansas Razorbacks.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-27-2011, 12:09 PM

Gonzaga hosts St Mary's in West Coast clash

We already know that John Wooden led one of the greatest programs in the history of sports. His UCLA Bruins put together an NCAA record 13 straight regular season conference crowns in the Pac-10 in the 1960s and 1970s.

In the history of major NCAA basketball betting action, this is the only squad that has won more consecutive league titles, regardless of conference, than the Gonzaga Bulldogs. The kings of the West Coast Conference have won 10 titles in a row and are searching for No. 11 this year, but they are going to have a tough time at home on Thursday night, as they take on the St. Mary's Gaels, who are looking to knock them from their perch.

Tip-off at McCarthey Athletic Center in Spokane, WA will be at 8 p.m. (PT) on Thursday in front of a nationally televised audience on ESPN2.

At 17-3, there is no doubting the fact that the Gaels are one of the best mid-major teams in the nation. They cracked the Top 25 in the nation last week before losing at the Vanderbilt Commodores in resounding 89-70 fashion, and are hoping that they can improve upon a 3-2 SU and ATS road record in arguably the biggest game of the season.

Though we know that Omar Samhan, the man that really made a name for himself last year in the NCAA Tournament, is no longer on the team, this is still an incredibly deep squad that might be the best in the history of the St. Mary's program. Mickey McConnell is the team's leading scorer at 14.6 PPG, but there is a plethora of scoring options behind him that can get the job done as well.

Eight different players are used in this rotation on a regular basis, and they're all scoring at least 6.2 PPG this year, and this is why this is one of the most well rounded offensive attacks in the entire country. St. Mary's ranks No. 9 in the land at 82.5 PPG coming into this week.

Gonzaga is on the ropes right now, having lost back-to-back games on the road this past weekend to the San Francisco Dons and the Santa Clara Broncos, neither team of which is really considered in the "elite" in the WCC this year. The Zags do get the best shot of their foe every single night though, regardless of whether they are conference games or not, and this is why they are almost certainly on the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament bubble 20 games into the season.

The scary thing for head coach Mark Few is that this is really the exact same core of a team that was so great last year in making the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team. Second year man Elias Harris has really struggled, as his scoring average has come down over 2.5 PPG to 12.3 PPG, and he has only scored 21 total points in his last two games.

Steven Gray and Robert Sacre are going to be huge keys on Thursday. Gray is putting up 15.2 PPG this year, while Sacre is second on the team in scoring at 13.9 PPG and is the leader in rebounding at 6.8 RPG.

Since 2003, this has been a series dominated by the Zags. They are 16-4 SU and 11-9 ATS in this stretch, and the marks at home are even more impressive. Here at the Kennel since 1999, Gonzaga is 13-0 SU, but is only 7-6 ATS against the Gaels. St. Mary's did get the last laugh last year, knocking the Bulldogs from their perch in the WCC Tournament finale with an impressive 81-62 triumph.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-27-2011, 12:10 PM

NHL Betting Trends: 'Over' teams fall short

Detroit is the only steady ’over’ winner presently leading an NHL division.
Putting the puck in the other team’s net is a good thing, but keeping it out of your own goal is usually a recipe that Stanley Cup contenders possess. Participating in high-scoring games doesn’t necessarily translate into being high in the standings.

Therefore, it is interesting to note that only one of the top five teams leading the league in most games going ‘over’ the total is sitting on top of their division standings.

The Central Division-leading Detroit Red Wings are that one team, with the ‘over’ going 27-21-0 in their first 48 outings. However, it is interesting to note that the ‘over’ is 16-7-1 in Detroit’s first 24 home dates, while the ‘under’ is 14-10 in the club’s first 24 road encounters.

Mike Babcock’s Wings are averaging 3.4 goals per game, which is second in the league. Much of that offense has occurred during the power play, where they have enjoyed a 21.8 percent success rate (5th).

Ironically, the Wings have not seen an offensive drought despite playing most of the last two months without injured players such as Pavel Datsyuk, Danny Cleary, Mike Modano and Thomas Holmstrom.

Defense has been Detroit’s problem through the first half of the season. The squad is allowing 2.9 GPG, which is a poor 18th. The Wings had yielded three goals or more in nine of their last 10 games heading into Wednesday’s contest against New Jersey.

The Colorado Avalanche have amassed the most ‘over’ games at 31-17-1. Most of that damage has occurred at home, where the ‘over’ is 16-7-1. The Avs are fourth in the league offensively, averaging 3.2 goals per game. Unfortunately, they are next-to-last defensively, allowing a bloated 3.3 GPG.

Much of the defensive problems have occurred when the Avs are shorthanded. They have a pitiful 77.2 percent success rate on the penalty kill, which ranks 28th.

Colorado has yielded three goals or more in eight of its past 10 games and four goals or more in five of its last eight outings.

The leaky defense is the main reason the Avs are sitting in second place in the Northwest Division, 13 points behind the Vancouver Canucks. The Ave are seven games above .500 despite being outscored 160-159.

The Phoenix Coyotes have seen the ‘over’ go 29-19-2 through their first 50 encounters, including 16-7-1 at home. Though the Coyotes are outscoring the opposition by just one goal this season (144-143), they have managed to jump seven games above .500.

The Coyotes’ slim goal discrepancy is reflected in identical offensive and defensive numbers, as they are scoring and allowing 2.8 goals per game. The offense is good for a 12th-place ranking, while the defense is just 16th.

A couple of third place teams round out the top-five ‘over’ achievers.

The Buffalo Sabres have seen the ‘over’ go 26-21-2 through 49 contests. It also doesn’t seem to matter where the Sabres are playing. The ‘over’ is 13-11-1 on the road and 13-10-1 at home. The Sabres are two games above .500 despite allowing seven more goals than they have scored (137-144).

The ‘over’ is 27-23-1 in Atlanta’s first 51 efforts. However, most of those numbers have been collected on enemy ice where the ‘over’ is 17-9. The Thrashers are four games above .500 despite getting outscored 166-151. Atlanta owns the league’s second poorest penalty killing unit with a 73.3 percent success rate.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-27-2011, 01:54 PM

MSU looks to hand Michigan its 7th straight loss

MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (11-9, 1-6 in Big Ten)

at MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (12-7, 4-3 in Big Ten)

Tip-off: Thursday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Michigan State -10.5, Total: 126

Blue or green, no in between. That’s usually the chant that becomes popular when bitter in-state rivals Michigan State and Michigan square off against one another, in any sport -- football, basketball, double dutch. This year, the only thing that falls between blue and green is mediocrity. With Tom Izzo’s 4-3 Michigan State team smack dab in the middle of the Big Ten (actually 11, soon to be 12) standings in sixth place, and John Beilein’s Michigan team next to last, just ahead of Iowa, the saying for this season should probably be: Blue or Green, the times are Lean. Against the backdrop of two struggling schools in the bottom half of the standings, the Wolverines will invade East Lansing seeking their first road victory in conference play.

If an outsider had a choice, they most likely would rather be in the Spartans’ shoes than the Wolverines. While Michigan State is 12-7 overall, six of those losses have come to teams ranked in the Top 25, and Tom Izzo still has one of the most experienced teams in the Big Ten. But now the story of the Spartans’ has spilled off the court. Late Tuesday Izzo announced that junior guard Korie Lucious (6.5 PPG, 4.1 APG) would be suspended for the remainder of the season. No specific reason was given for the suspension. Lucious pleaded guilty in the fall to a misdemeanor reckless driving charge, and was suspended briefly at the start of the season. "Unfortunately, Korie Lucious displayed conduct detrimental to the program," Izzo said in a statement. "My focus is on this team for the remainder of the season." The team that Izzo has is trying to snap a two-game losing streak that came at the hands of Illinois in Champaign, 71-62, and to Purdue 86-76 last Saturday night in Mackey Arena. Freshman guard Keith Appling (6.3 PPG, 2.1 RPG) has started seven straight games, and figures to get even more playing time with Lucious inactive for the rest of the season. Leading scorer Kalin Lucas (14.4 PPG, 3.7 APG) has struggled at times, such as he did last Saturday against Purdue, scoring just nine points on 3-for-16 shooting. Lucas is shooting 42.4% from the floor, and will need to display some senior leadership, as must Durrell Summers (13.9 PPG, 4.3 RPG) if the Spartans are to right the ship during a favorable stretch of the schedule. After Michigan, the Spartans are home for Indiana, then on the road against Iowa.

Sometimes numbers indicate little to nothing. In Michigan’s case, these stats indicate almost everything. The Wolverines are giving up 72.3 PPG in league competition, while at the same time they are scoring 61.7 PPG in conference action. That pretty much explains 1-6 in league play, and a six-game losing streak (2-4 ATS). The scenario gets even gloomier when you consider how the team has performed on the road, where the Wolverines have lost their three Big Ten road games by an average margin of 16.3 PPG. Not unlike the school’s football team, Michigan’s basketball squad has also learned the hard way that there is no D in Michigan. The Wolverines are allowing Big Ten opponents to shoot 52.8% from the floor, ranking them dead last in the conference. Michigan is coming off of a 69-64 home defeat to Minnesota. After the game, the team held a players-only meeting after Beilein‘s postgame chat. If the Wolverines can come off of that meeting, and pull off an upset in East Lansing, where they have not won a game in 14 years, expect someone to bottle the contents of what was said and turn it into a cologne for other slumping teams to use.

Although both teams have been tough bets in Big Ten action with identical 2-5 ATS marks, these FoxSheets trends give the edge to Michigan State to cover the big spread on Thursday.

Tom Izzo is 36-16 ATS (69.2%, +18.4 Units) as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points as the coach of MICHIGAN STATE. The average score was MICHIGAN STATE 73.3, OPPONENT 60.6 - (Rating = 2*).

Play Against - A road team (MICHIGAN) - after 2 or more consecutive overs, an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG) against a good defensive team (63-67 PPG) after 15+ games. (97-54 since 1997.) (64.2%, +37.6 units. Rating = 2*).

These two highly-rated FoxSheets trends expect the final score to finish Under the total:

MICHIGAN is 15-3 UNDER (83.3%, +11.7 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MICHIGAN 60.9, OPPONENT 60.7 - (Rating = 3*).

John Beilein is 25-8 UNDER (75.8%, +16.2 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games as the coach of MICHIGAN. The average score was MICHIGAN 57.8, OPPONENT 61.0 - (Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 01-27-2011, 01:55 PM

Arizona favored by 8 over UCLA

UCLA BRUINS (13-6, 5-2 in Pac-10)

at ARIZONA WILDCATS (16-4, 5-2 in Pac-10)

Tip-off: Thursday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Arizona -8, Total: 142

Last Thursday the Arizona Wildcats took their high-powered offense to Seattle for a Pac-10 showdown with first place on the line against Isaiah Thomas and the showtime-esque Washington Huskies. Things didn’t go too well, as Thomas put up 22 points to go along with 10 assists, and the Huskies ran Sean Miller’s Wildcats out of the gym, 85-68. This Thursday, the Cats are back on home turf for another showdown, but this time it will be second place on the line when the youthful UCLA Bruins come to town looking to extend their four-game winning streak, as they aspire to pull off the always tough weekend road sweep of Arizona and Arizona State. Thursday night for UCLA, the mission begins.

The Baby Bears are coming off a come-from-behind home victory over the Stanford Cardinal last Saturday, 68-57, as junior guard Malcom Lee’s 23-point game tied his season-high effort, and the Bruins overcame a 14-point first half deficit. Leading scorer and rebounder Reeves Nelson (13.9 PPG, 8.0 RPG) pulled down 10 boards, while second leading scorer Tyler Honeycutt added 16 points in the victory. In addition to being 1-2 in scoring, Reeves and Honeycutt are also 1-2 on the team in rebounding, an impressive feat for two sophomores. Six-foot junior guard Lazeric Jones, who added 17 points and six rebounds in the win over Stanford, rounds out a quartet of players averaging double figures for Ben Howland’s team. UCLA has won 10 of its past 12 games, and as you would expect from a Howland squad, are starting to turn up the temperature on the defensive end, as it has held three of its last four opponents under 60 points. At 66.4 PPG allowed in Pac-10 play, the Bruins boast the third stingiest defense in the league.

Nearly as hot as UCLA are the Arizona Wildcats, winners of eight of their last 10. They bounced back from a bruising defeat to Washington with a hard-fought 65-63 victory over Washington State in Pullman on Saturday. Leading scorer and rebounder Derrick Williams tallied 17 points and grabbed 19 rebounds, as the Cats survived a dreadful 36.8% shooting performance from the floor, with an unconscious 61% effort (11-for-18) from beyond the arc. While there are other players in the country whose scoring averages represent a greater percentage of the team’s offense, there are probably few, if any, players as valuable to his team than Williams is to the Wildcats. Williams is the only player on his team that averages double figures in scoring (19.7 PPG, 8.1 RPG) as his per-game tally is more than double that of the next nearest scorer, sophomore forward Solomon Hill (8.5 PPG). While scoring balance has been elusive for Arizona, pinpoint shooting has not. The Wildcats are shooting a league best 43.2% from beyond the arc in conference play, while on the defensive side of things, they are defending the three-point shot better than any team, limiting Pac-10 foes to just 22% (26-of-118) from beyond the arc.

Arizona and UCLA met three times last season, with the Wildcats taking the first two games before UCLA defeated Arizona in the opening round of the Pac-10 Tournament. Since 1997, the Wildcats are 10-3 SU (9-3-1 ATS) when hosting the Bruins. The FoxSheets give two more reasons to back Arizona to win and cover the big spread.

UCLA is 5-17 ATS (22.7%, -13.7 Units) after a game where they covered the spread over the last 2 seasons. The average score was UCLA 68.2, OPPONENT 71.7 - (Rating = 2*).

ARIZONA is 16-6 ATS (72.7%, +9.4 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons. The average score was ARIZONA 75.9, OPPONENT 74.5 - (Rating = 1*).

The Over is 7-0-1 in the past eight meetings between these schools and this FoxSheets trend also sides with the Over:

ARIZONA is 11-1 OVER (+9.9 Units) in home games after having won 15 or more of their last 20 games since 1997. The average score was ARIZONA 87.9, OPPONENT 72.3 - (Rating = 3*).

**Ldawg** · 01-27-2011, 02:04 PM

gl

**StarDust Bum** · 01-27-2011, 02:38 PM

NBA

Thursday, January 27Game Score Status Pick Amount

Miami - 8:00 PM ET Miami -3.5 500
New York - Over 211 500

Houston - 8:30 PM ET Houston +6.5 500
Dallas - Under 204.5 500

Boston - 10:30 PM ET Boston -4.5 500
Portland - Under 183.5 500

==============================================

NCAAB

Thursday, January 27Game Score Status Pick Amount

Towson - 4:00 PM ET Towson +18.5 500
George Mason - Under 141.5 500

Hofstra - 7:00 PM ET Hofstra +8.5 500
VCU - Over 140 500

Wofford - 7:00 PM ET Wofford -4.5 500
Appalachian St. - Under 145 500

Western Kentucky - 7:00 PM ET Florida International +2.5 500
Florida International - Under 150 500

Michigan - 7:00 PM ET Michigan +10.5 500
Michigan St - Over 125 500

Kent St. - 7:00 PM ET Kent St. +2 500
Ball St. - Under 127 500

NC-Greensboro - 7:00 PM ET NC-Greensboro +8.5 500
Chattanooga - Over 149.5 500

Maryland - 7:00 PM ET Virginia +4 500 ( ACC POD )
Virginia - Under 132 500

Furman - 7:00 PM ET Western Carolina +3 500
Western Carolina - Under 136.5 500

Middle Tennessee St. - 7:00 PM ET Florida Atlantic -8 500
Florida Atlantic - Over 133.5 500

Marist - 7:00 PM ET St. Peter's -13 500
St. Peter's - Under 121 500

Miami (OH) - 7:00 PM ET Central Michigan -1 500
Central Michigan - Under 120 500

Vanderbilt - 7:00 PM ET Mississippi St. +6 500
Mississippi St. - Over 144 500

St. Joseph's - 7:00 PM ET La Salle -2.5 500
La Salle - Under 147 500

Austin Peay - 7:30 PM ET Austin Peay +0 500
Eastern Kentucky - Over 132 500

Rider - 7:30 PM ET Rider +8 500
Iona - Over 150 500

Tennessee St. - 7:45 PM ET Morehead St. -10.5 500
Morehead St. - Over 128.5 500

South Alabama - 8:00 PM ET Troy -3.5 500
Troy - Over 148 500

Youngstown St. - 8:00 PM ET Loyola-Chicago -11 500
Loyola-Chicago - Under 135 500

Boston College - 8:00 PM ET Duke -16.5 500
Duke - Under 150 500

Cleveland St. - 8:00 PM ET Cleveland St. -10 500
Illinois-Chicago - Over 130 500

Elon University - 8:00 PM ET Elon University -2.5 500
Samford - Over 129.5 500

Idaho - 8:00 PM ET Idaho -1 500
Louisiana Tech - Over 129 500

Louisiana-Monroe - 8:05 PM ET Louisiana-Monroe +10.5 500
Arkansas St. - Under 128 500

North Texas - 8:05 PM ET Louisiana-Lafayette +3.5 500
Louisiana-Lafayette - Over 151 500

Southern California - 8:30 PM ET Southern California -2 500
Arizona St. - Under 124.5 500

Jacksonville St. - 8:30 PM ET Jacksonville St. +1 500
SE Missouri St. - Over 131 500

Tennessee Tech - 8:30 PM ET Eastern Illinois -3.5 500
Eastern Illinois - Over 136.5 500

Illinois - 9:00 PM ET Illinois -4 500
Indiana - Over 143 500

Boise St. - 9:00 PM ET New Mexico St. -1 500
New Mexico St. - Over 147 500

DePaul - 9:00 PM ET South Florida -9.5 500
South Florida - Under 133 500

UCLA - 9:00 PM ET UCLA +7.5 500
Arizona - Over 142 500

UC Riverside - 10:00 PM ET UC Davis -3.5 500
UC Davis - Under 134.5 500

Utah St. - 10:00 PM ET Utah St. -9 500
San Jose St. - Under 134 500

UC Santa Barbara - 10:00 PM ET UC Santa Barbara -4 500
Cal Poly SLO - Under 116.5 500

Oregon - 10:00 PM ET Oregon +7.5 500
Stanford - Under 124.5 500

CSU Northridge - 10:00 PM ET CSU Northridge +6 500
UC Irvine - Over 151 500

San Francisco - 10:00 PM ET San Francisco +5 500
Loyola Marymount - Over 135 500

San Diego - 10:00 PM ET San Diego +16.5 500
Portland - Under 130.5 500

Idaho State - 10:05 PM ET Idaho State +0 500
Sacramento State - Over 126.5 500

Portland St. - 10:05 PM ET Eastern Washington -3.5 500
Eastern Washington - Over 141.5 500

Santa Clara - 10:30 PM ET Santa Clara -2.5 500
Pepperdine - Under 145.5 500

Fresno St. - 10:30 PM ET Nevada -6.5 500
Nevada - Over 136.5 500

St. Mary's - 11:00 PM ET St. Mary's +3 500 (WCC POD )
Gonzaga - Under 149 500

Oregon St. - 11:00 PM ET Oregon St. +9 500 ( PAC 10 POD )
California - Over 147 500

**StarDust Bum** · 01-27-2011, 06:53 PM

Wade expected to play at New York

MIAMI HEAT (31-13)

at NEW YORK KNICKS (23-21)

Tip-off: Thursday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Miami -3.5, Total: 209.5

New York gets another shot at the man who spurned them last summer, and this time they’ll get LeBron and the Heat at less than full strength.

James’ co-star, Dwyane Wade, has been battling migraines. He’s expected to play tonight (debuting his goggles), but may not be as effective as usual. Sidekick Chris Bosh will not be available as he nurses a high ankle sprain. Bosh scored 26 against New York’s defensively-challenged frontcourt when the Heat came to Madison Square Garden on Dec. 17.

James will slide to power forward for most of the night, with Mike Miller stepping in on the perimeter. Miller was not available for either of the first two games against New York, and the three-point specialist adds another dimension to an already dangerous offense. In his his first start for the Heat last Saturday, Miller poured in 32 on 12-of-20 shooting, including 6-for-11 from behind the arc. He pitched in 10 rebounds as well.

As good as James has been against all opponents, he’s been especially dominant against the Knicks. He had a triple-double at MSG in December and nearly repeated the feat during their rematch in Miami. He’s averaging 25.0 PPG on 55.0% shooting from the field, 10.0 RPG and 10.5 APG in their two matchups this season, both Miami wins (but only an ATS win in the first one). In six trips to MSG over the past four years, he’s averaging an absurd 37.5 PPG on 56.5% shooting, 8.0 RPG and 7.8 APG. He has a personal 10-game winning streak against the Knicks, and his team has covered in four of their past five trips to the Garden.

The Knicks will counter with Amar’e Stoudemire, who’s averaging 27.0 PPG and 10.5 RPG in two matchups with Miami’s frontcourt this year. But the Knicks live or die with the three-point shot (they’ve taken 24.6 per game this year, second-most in the NBA), and no one defends the three better than Miami, allowing a league-low 32.4% shooting from behind the arc. New York has shot a solid 37.3% from three on the season, but went just 15-for-48 (31.3%) in their two previous meetings with Miami.

Both teams recently snapped mini-slides. New York lost five straight before winning in Toronto, while Miami dropped four in a row before beating Washington. Miami is 13-9 ATS on the road this season and 22-17 ATS at New York since 1996. With the spread being just two possessions, my pick is Miami on Thursday night, especially with this FoxSheets situation:

Play On - Road favorites (MIAMI) - after having lost 4 of their last 5 games, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days. (60-32 since 1996, 65.2%, +24.8 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 01-27-2011, 06:54 PM

Dallas favored by 5.5 points over Houston

HOUSTON ROCKETS (22-25)

at DALLAS MAVERICKS (29-15)

Tip-off: Thursday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Dallas -5.5, Total: 204

The Mavs look like they’re getting closer to gelling after a series of injuries knocked them off-course earlier this season.

Dirk Nowitzki is still trying to find his groove after missing two-plus weeks with an ankle injury. He’s shooting just 38.3% from the field over six games since returning. Sixth man Jason Terry (28 points) and center Tyson Chandler (season-high 21 points in 17 minutes) picked up the slack in a 112-105 victory over the Clippers Tuesday night.

This could be a good opportunity for Nowitzki to get it going again. He’s averaged 26.5 PPG on 49.3% shooting at home against Houston over the past seven seasons. The Rockets had allowed 115, 118 and 125 points in their previous three games before holding a short-handed Clippers squad to 83 points Wednesday night. They’re allowing 110.1 PPG on the road in January. The Mavs have won 23 of their past 26 games SU against Houston when Nowitzki scores 20 points.

The Rockets thrive on getting to the free-throw line (21.3 makes per game, fourth-most in the NBA), especially top scorer Kevin Martin (7.6 makes, second in the NBA). But the Mavs make it a point to not foul. They allow opponents to take just 21.5 free throws per game, third-fewest in the NBA. In their first meeting this year, Martin got to the line just six times and shot 4-for-15 from the field, scoring 17 points (six below his season average) in a 101-91 loss.

Since 1996, the Mavericks are 34-26 ATS (57%) against Houston and I like Dallas at home, especially because of this info from FoxSheets:

HOUSTON is 7-18 ATS (28.0%, -12.8 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons. The average score was HOUSTON 103.0, OPPONENT 110.0 - (Rating = 1*).

Rick Adelman is 23-50 ATS (31.5%, -32.0 Units) when playing their 5th game in 7 days in all games he has coached since 1996. The average score was Adelman 100.2, OPPONENT 102.0 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 01-27-2011, 06:55 PM

Gonzaga tries to get back on track hosting Saint Mary's

SAINT MARY’S (CA) GAELS (17-3, 5-0 in WCC)

at GONZAGA BULLDOGS (13-7, 3-2 in WCC)

Tip-off: Thursday, 11:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Gonzaga -3, Total: 149

Look out Gonzaga, the Gael force is coming! Just to remind everyone in the West Coast Conference (as well as the rest of college basketball) that last season was not a fluke, the Gaels of Saint Mary’s are back with a vengeance. Following last season’s NCAA Tournament run that ended with a loss in the Sweet 16 round to Baylor, the Gaels have stormed to 17 wins in its first 20 games this year, including a 5-0 mark in the West Coast Conference. Thursday when they invade Gonzaga’s McCarthey Athletic Center, Saint Mary’s will do so with a team that is ranked in the Top 10 nationally in three offensive categories. The Zags rank eighth in scoring (82.5 PPG), third in passing (18.6 APG), and third in shooting (50.6% FG).

The Saint Mary’s attack starts with its backcourt of senior Mickey McConnell and sophomore Matthew Dellavedova. McConnell leads the team in points (14.6), assists (6.5) and minutes played (35.5), all while shooting nearly 47% from beyond the arc, and over 51% from the floor, an amazing number for a player who makes his living outside of the paint. McConnell also knows how to protect the basketball, as he sports an assist-to-turnover ratio of nearly 3-to-1. Dellavedova (13.2 PPG, 5.9 APG, 3.7 RPG, 1.2 SPG) is a big guard from down under -- Maryborough, Australia to be exact -- who can do a little bit of everything. At nearly 39%, Dellavedova is almost as proficient from beyond the arc as McConnell. Junior forward Rob Jones (14.0 PPG, 7.3 RPG) leads the team in rebounding. With a team shooting percentage of just about 50%, and a team three-point FG Pct. just below 40%, it’s a pretty safe bet that most of Saint Mary’s rebounds come courtesy of the OTHER team’s missed shots. The Gaels are coming off of an 89-70 non-conference road loss to Vanderbilt last Saturday, and while all of the team’s losses have come to non-league opponents, Saint Mary’s did battle Mountain West-leading BYU (now 20-1 after defeating San Diego State on Wednesday night) before losing by just a point, 74-73.

After a rocky beginning that saw them start the season 4-5 and falling out of the Top 25, the Gonzaga Bulldogs had seemed to right the ship, winning nine straight between December 16 and January 15, with big non-conference victories over 2010 NCAA Tournament teams Baylor, Xavier and Oklahoma State. But two disappointing conference road defeats at Santa Clara and San Francisco have knocked the Bulldogs record back to 13-7, and 3-2 in conference play. Simply put, the Bulldogs had better start showing a lot more bark if they hope to make a 13th consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance. The Zags have gotten strong production from senior guard Steven Gray, who is leading the team in scoring (15.2) while shooting over 40% from beyond the arc. Long and lean 7-footer Robert Sacre (13.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.9 BPG) is leading the team in rebounds and blocks, while sophomore forward Elias Harris (12.3 PPG, 5.5 RPG) like Sacre, is shooting over 51% from the field. A loss would put Gonzaga three games out of first place, providing a clear advantage for the Gaels as they look to make it back–to-back WCC Championships, further breaking the stranglehold that Gonzaga has held on the conference for years.

Although Saint Mary’s crushed Gonzaga in the WCC Tournament last season, 81-62, the Zags are 29-5 SU (20-14 ATS) against SMC since 1997. They have a perfect home record in this span (13-0) with a slim 8-6 ATS advantage over the Gaels. The FoxSheets provide two more trends siding with Gonzaga to win and cover.

ST MARYS-CA is 20-46 ATS (30.3%, -30.6 Units) versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% after 15+ games since 1997. The average score was ST MARYS-CA 61.8, OPPONENT 72.3 - (Rating = 2*).

GONZAGA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games off a loss to a conference rival as a favorite of 6 points or more since 1997. The average score was GONZAGA 79.3, OPPONENT 62.1 - (Rating = 1*).

**StarDust Bum** · 01-27-2011, 06:57 PM

Inside the Paint - Thursday

January 27, 2011

Yesterday’s 10-game slate in the NBA had eight teams laying points on the road and those favorites went 6-2 straight up and 5-3 against the spread. Looking at the box scores closer, it could’ve been a clean sweep if it wasn’t for some late rallies. New Jersey outscored Memphis by 11 (33-22) points in the fourth quarter during its 93-88 come-from-behind win. And Milwaukee used a 34-15 run in the final 12 minutes to knock off Atlanta 98-90 as a two-point home underdog.
The road favorite theme continues tonight and both of the visitors are serious contenders in Miami and Boston. Let’s take a closer look at their televised matchups on TNT and touch on some bonus hits as well.

Miami (31-13 SU, 22-22 ATS) at New York (23-21 SU, 25-19 ATS): Even though Miami enters this game with the second-best record in the East, the club is only 1-4 over its last five. The Heat snapped a four-game losing skid last Saturday with a wire-to-wire victory over Toronto (120-103) at home. Chris Bosh (ankle) and Dwyane Wade (flue) both sat out against the Raptors, but LeBron James (38 points, 11 rebounds and six assists) carried the load, plus Mike Miller (32 points) finally showed his worth with a scoring outburst.

Bosh is expected to miss a few more games, while Wade will be back in the lineup tonight. It’s safe to say that the New York isn’t on the same level as the Raptors, who have now dropped nine in a row and they’re 4-16 in their last 20. The Knicks have a great shot to make the playoffs and they’re currently seeded sixth in the East. However, the difference between the first five spots in this conference and the rest of the pack is enormous.

We’re not saying New York can’t beat Miami at home tonight, but the team is catching points (3) for a reason. The Knicks are coming off a 115-106 home win against Washington on Monday, which snapped a six-game losing skid. A win is a win, but make a note that the Wizards haven’t won a road game (0-21) all season and the game was knotted at the half (62-62). Fortunately for New York, it hit more shots from the outside and that’s been the common theme for this year’s squad.

Sure, Amare Stoudemire (26.1 PPG, 9 RPG) was a huge offseason acquisition but the Knicks (106.3) still don’t play any defense. The run ‘n gun offense averages 84 attempts per game and 24 of them are coming from 3-point land. Conversely, Miami averages 77 shots per game and its defense (93.9 PPG) is ranked fifth best in the league.

To put things in perspective even more, New York has put up 100-plus points in 20 of its 23 wins and the team scored 98, 98 and 99 in the other victories. Basically, you need this team to shoot well to not only cover but win.

The Knicks have gone 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS as home underdogs this season, the win coming against San Antonio (128-115) on Jan. 4. New York shot 55 percent from the field in the win.

Miami has won seven straight (5-2 ATS) against New York, two of those wins this season and one coming at Madison Square Garden (113-91) in mid-December. The Knicks did rally for a cover against the Heat (98-106) on Dec. 27 as 8 ½-point road ‘dogs but they were trailing by 13 at the half and 15 after three quarters. The ‘under’ cashed in both of those games but tonight’s total has been pushed up to 210. Why?

With Bosh out, the Heat will shoot more from the outside with Miller and the tempo with the Knicks is always going to be high paced. If the shots fall, the winner could get 120.

Boston (34-10 SU, 20-23 ATS) at Portland (25-21 SU, 23-23 ATS): On paper, this contest looks like a mismatch and the oddsmakers tend to agree. Boston opened up as a four-point road ‘chalk’ and the number is up to five and climbing. This writer believes Portland head coach Nate McMillian should garner accolades for his job in the Great Northwest this season. However, the wheels are just about to fall off the wagon and you witnessed that on Monday when the team fell at home to Sacramento, 96-81.

The loss did snap a five-game winning streak for the Trail Blazers, but look at the opponents during that stretch. They beat the Nets, Timberwolves, Kings, Clippers and Pacers. Four of them came at home, one in overtime and outside of the double-digit win (108-93) over L.A., none were overly impressive.

What is worth noting is that Portland is winning with a banged-up squad. All-Star guard Brandon Roy (knee) has missed 19 games and he’s more than likely done for the season. Shot blocker Marcus Camby (knee) is gone until after the mid-season break, plus Wesley Matthews (ankle) and LaMarcus Aldridge (hip), who’ve played great for Portland this season are both hobbling lately as well.

Portland is solid at home (16-6 SU, 10-12 ATS) and its 2-1 both SU and ATS when catching points at the Rose Garden. Honestly, that number should be 3-0 but the Blazers blew a big lead against the Heat (100-107) on Jan. 9 and wound up losing in overtime.

If you’re looking for an angle to fade Boston tonight, perhaps you can point to travel and rust. The Celtics have played nine of their last 11 at home and the two road stints during this run were losses to the Bulls (79-90) and Wizards (83-85).

Boston has won 10 of the last 11 head-to-head meeting against Portland, including a 99-95 home win on Dec. 1 this season. The C’s have posted an 8-3 ATS mark during this span.

Center Shaquille O’Neal (hip) will miss tonight and most likely tomorrow’s contest in Phoenix, but should be ready for Sunday’s nationally televised tilt against the L.A. Lakers. While Shaq is missing in the middle, Kendrick Perkins saw his first action of the season on Tuesday. He had seven points and six boards in the team’s 112-95 blowout win over Cleveland.

CD’s Bonus Hits:

Rookie sensation Blake Griffin gets all the press for the L.A. Clippers and deservingly so, but shooting guard Eric Gordon has been lights out this season. Unfortunately, he hurt his wrist and is expected to miss 3-4 weeks. So far, the team is 0-2 both SU and ATS without Gordon and it might be time to fade Los Angeles.

Ever since owner Mikhail Prokhorov pulled the plug on the Carmelo Anthony trade talks, the New Jersey Nets have been playing much better. They’ve won four of five and the loss was to Dallas (86-87) on a buzzer beater. All five were at home, so the next two road stops in Indiana and Milwaukee will give gamblers a better feel.

Utah will likely make the playoffs but its recent 0-6 skid, both SU and ATS, is very alarming. The next four games for the Jazz will be against sub .500 clubs, but do you press or pass on Jerry Sloan’s struggling squad?

Should we be surprised that Charlotte (19-25) is a playoff team in the East? The Bobcats don’t have a lot of great pieces but they’re playing well under Paul Silas, especially as a ‘dog. The club is 10-6 overall under the new coach, and 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS when catching points. Charlotte has started its West Coast swing with two wins and will most likely be catching points the rest of the way.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-27-2011, 06:58 PM

'Zags to host St. Mary's

January 27, 2011

For the first time since 1997, Gonzaga is in danger of possibly missing the NCAA Tournament. The Bulldogs are just 13-7 and despite once again playing one of the nation’s premier non-conference schedules, they are seemingly on the wrong side of the bubble here in late January.

Mark Few’s team does have a few solid wins, including scalps of RPI Top 100 teams like Marquette, Baylor and Portland. In addition, the ‘Zags took down Xavier (RPI: 27) and Oklahoma St. (RPI: 38) but after back-to-back road losses at Santa Clara and at San Francisco, Gonzaga is in dire need of a victory over Saint Mary’s at home Thursday.

Michigan State is another team that’s starving for a win. The Spartans aren’t in as bad a shape as the ‘Zags, but they’re also dealing with internal issues and have appeared to struggle with chemistry at times.

There are additional games galore on tonight's college hoops card, including several intriguing Pac-10 matchups and Michigan at Michigan St. Let’s take a closer look.

**Michigan at Michigan State**

--Most betting shops opened Michigan State (12-7 straight up, 6-12 against the spread) as a 10 ½-point favorite with a total of 126. As of early this afternoon, most books were at 10 or 10 1/2 with the total adjusted slightly to 125 1/2. Gamblers can take the Wolverines to win outright for a plus-450 payout (risk $100 to win $450).

--Michigan (11-9 SU, 8-7 ATS) has lost six in a row, failing to cover in four of those games. The Wolverines are coming off a 69-64 home loss to Minnesota as 1 ½-point favorites. Tim Hardaway Jr. scored a game-high 20 points in the losing effort.

--Tom Izzo’s team is mired in a 0-5 ATS slump, dropping its last two games straight up. The Spartans lost 86-76 Saturday at Purdue, disappointing their backers as 6 ½-point underdogs. Draymond Green played extremely well in defeat, producing 21 points, 11 rebounds and six assists. Kalin Lucas was a horrendous 3-for-16 from the field and fouled out before scoring in double figures. Delvon Roe scored 16 points in the losing cause.

--MSU has only lost once in nine home games this year, but it is just 3-5 ATS at Breslin Center.

--Izzo dismissed Korie Lucious from the team on Tuesday due to ‘conduct detrimental to the team.” Lucious, a junior guard, was averaging 6.5 points per game. He’s best known for his buzzer-beating jumper that eliminated Maryland from last year’s NCAA Tournament in the second round.

--The ‘under’ is 11-7 overall for the Spartans, 5-3 in their home assignments.

--The ‘over’ has hit in four straight games for Michigan to improve to 8-6-1 overall.

--The ‘under’ is 7-3 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings between these Big Ten adversaries.

--ESPN will have the telecast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

**Saint Mary’s at Gonzaga**

--Most books opened Gonzaga (13-7 SU, 9-7-1 ATS) as a three-point favorite with a total of 150. As of early this afternoon, the 'Zags were still at three with the total in the 148-149 range.

--Gonzaga lost a 96-91 decision Saturday at San Francisco in overtime as a 10-point road ‘chalk.’ Steven Gray finished with 20 points, eight rebounds and four assists, while Demetri Goodson also scored 20 points.

--Saint Mary’s (17-3 SU, 9-6 ATS) saw its 11-game winning streak snapped Saturday in Music City where Vanderbilt stroked the Gaels by an 89-70 count as a five-point home favorite. Matthew Dellavedova had 19 points, four assists and four steals in Nashville.

--Saint Mary’s has an RPI of 39 even though it has only played four games against squads in the RPI Top 100. The Gaels beat St. John’s 76-71 at home in their opener (worst ‘under’ loss of my handicapping career), but they have lost to Vandy (RPI: 19), BYU (4) and San Diego State (1).

--Gonzaga has won 10 of its 12 home games, posting a solid 6-3 spread record in the process.

--Gonzaga has been a single-digit favorite four times, compiling a 2-2 spread record. Meanwhile, Saints Mary’s is winless in three underdog spots with a 1-2 ATS ledger.

--Gonzaga had won six in a row over Saint Mary’s until the finals of the WCC Tournament last season when the Gaels captured an 81-62 win as 4 ½-point underdogs.

--The ‘under’ is 11-5 overall for Gonzaga, 6-2 in its home games.

--The ‘under’ is 9-6 overall for the Gaels, 4-1 in their last five outings.

--Tip-off is scheduled for 11:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-27-2011, 06:59 PM

SEC East Update

January 25, 2011

Following is a quick team-by-team update on what’s happening in the SEC East, which appears much the stronger of the conference halves this season. Straight-up and pointspread records are thru games of January 23.

FLORIDA (SU 15-4, ATS 6-9)... It’s hard to believe that that Gators have not won an NCAA Tourney game since beating Ohio State to win the 2007 championship. And SEC onlookers are still not sure if this year’s edition, which seems bound for the Big Dance, will end that postseason slump. The pre-league slate was not overly demanding, with Florida dropping two of its three most-challenging assignments (vs. Ohio State and UCF) while squeezing past Florida State. Defensive work last week was encouraging when limiting Auburn (a 45-40 loser) and Arkansas (beaten by a 75-43 count) to a combined 83 points, but more significant tests vs. tougher Eastern opposition begin this week with Tuesday’s game vs. emerging Georgia. Donovan likes his all-sr. frontline led by 6'10 Vernon Macklin. And UF has been receiving serviceable contributions from Gs Erving Walker (13.7) and Kenny Boynton (12.8 ppg), but has concerns when running into bigger backcourt combinations, especially against the 5'8 Walker. Casey Prather, a 6'6 frosh swingman, could be a player to watch down the stretch after hinting at a breakthrough in recent games. Still, we need more convincing before projecting the Gators too deep into the Dance.

GEORGIA (SU 14-4, ATS 8-6)... Arguably the most dangerous team in the East, second-year HC Mark Fox has the Dawgs aimed toward their first visit to the Big Dance since Dennis Felton’s 2008 squad made a surprise emergence from a tornado-disrupted conference tourney in Atlanta. An exceptionally well-balanced lineup features five starters who each have scored at least 20 points in one game this season. Georgia can be dynamic on the attack end thanks to a potent inside-outside with highlight-reel G Travis Leslie (14.7 ppg) and a roadrunner, Tennessee State transfer Gerald Robinson (14.1 ppg), serving as effective perimeter complements for 6'9 jr. Trey Thompkins (17.4 ppg). Moreover, the Dawgs’ ability to stretch opposing defenses is reflected in the team hitting better than 50% (23 of 44) from beyond the arc in its last three games. SEC sources are also keeping an eye on 6'7 frosh F Marcus Thornton, now making meaningful contributions off the bench (such as the 9 rebounds he gathered in Saturday’s rout of Mississippi State). Note: UGa’s four covers in as many tries as a visiting underdog.

KENTUCKY (SU 15-4, ATS 7-6)... The Cats are the SEC team that everyone is still watching, despite the fact UK lost so much firepower (four NBA first-round choices!) from last year’s Elite Eight team. Although John Calipari’s new group of diaper dandies is formidable, it is not quite as menacing as it could be with 6'11 frosh C Enes Kanter ruled ineligible by the NCAA, robbing UK of the post presence it hoped could help this year’s edition dominate. Calipari still has a lineup filled with blue-chippers, featuring three ballyhooed frosh (F Terrence Jones at 18.3 ppg, G Brandon Knight at 17.6 ppg, and sixth-man deluxe G Doron Lamb at 13.6 ppg), although an important contributor remains 6'10 holdover sr. C Josh Harrellson, who has been doing most of the dirty work in the paint and rates as Calipari’s most pleasant surprise. SEC observers believe last Saturday’s 67-58 win at South Carolina was an important hump for the Cats to clear after losing their first two SEC road games at Georgia and Alabama, although the absence of Kanter has thinned Calipari’s bench, which has contributed sporadically. Still, we’re keeping a close eye on the Cats, who could become a team everyone wants to avoid in March.

SOUTH CAROLINA (SU 12-6, ATS 7-7)... It’s too bad SC isn’t competing in this year’s Western half of the loop, where it might be the team to beat. But Darrin Horn’s Gamecocks have emerged as a surprising "tough out" thanks to contributions from a pair of newcomers, Nevada transfer F Malik Cooke, who has emerged as a valuable complement on the blocks to menacing 6'9 sr. Sam Muldrow, and frosh PG Bruce Ellington, who leads the team in scoring at 14.5 ppg. Muldrow’s defensive presence (he has 3.4 blocks pg) is pacing the Cocks’ SEC-best 9 blocks pg in league play, although Horn is concerned about recurring foul trouble that has plagued the lineup. The real eye-opener in recent weeks was the 72-69 win at Florida on Jan. 15, which suggests the Cocks can take their act on the road this season. SC is likely just outside the NCAA "bubble" a the moment, but bound for some postseason destination.

TENNESSEE (SU 12-7, ATS 7-11)... It’s been a bumpy ride for the Vols, especially with distractions surrounding HC Bruce Pearl’s 8-game SEC suspension, which will conclude after the Feb. 5 game vs. Alabama. The Vols’ performances have swung wildly, with early wins over Villanova and Pitt countered by shock losses vs. Charlotte, Southern Cal, and Bobby Cremins’ Charleston. And just when the season seemed ready to unravel with losses in the first two SEC games vs. Arkansas and Florida, UT rallied for interim HC Tony Jones with wins at home over Vandy and at Georgia before Saturday’s loss at UConn. The Vols still present matchup problems with their length on the perimeter featuring 6'7 Scotty Hopson (16.2 ppg) & 6'6 Cameron Tatum, while 6'8 frosh swingman Tobias Harris (15.3 ppg) is one of the SEC’s top newcomers. This Vol edition lacks the interior presence of recent UT versions, however, reflected in the loss at UConn. Still, the victims list is likely to impress the Selection Committee enough to keep the Vols on the safe side of the Big Dance cut line unless the team completely collapses down the stretch.

VANDERBILT (SU 14-4, ATS 8-6)... Vandy has enough intriguing elements on its roster that some have suggested the Dores could be a stealth Final Four contender. The emergence of 6'11 jr. C Festus Ezeli (12.6 ppg), perhaps the nation’s most improved player, fuels some of that optimism, as he combines with 6'9 jr. Steve Tchiengang in a rugged defensive combo on the blocks. Explosive components such as soph G John Jenkins (18.7 ppg) and versatile jr. F Jeffery Taylor (14.7 ppg) pace a versatile lineup. But the Dores miss a real scrapper, a role well-suited to the oft-injured F Andre Walker, and the thought persists that jr. G Brad Tinsley is overmatched against top-notch backcourt opponents. The manner of maddening road defeats at South Carolina and Tennessee, however, suggests Vandy might lack the extra edge it needs to make a deep run in March.

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