Announcement

**Udog** · 01-27-2011, 09:08 AM

Super Bowl XLV odds: Opening line report

In many ways, it’s the Super Bowl matchup everyone wanted to see.

The Green Bay Packers squaring off against the Pittsburgh Steelers in a matchup that features two of the most influential franchises in NFL history – not to mention two of the most popular teams among football bettors.

That makes the game’s line pretty interesting. After some early talk that the game could open as low as a pick ‘em, most books settled with a line favoring Green Bay by about 1.5 and a total of 45 or 46 points.

The Packers headed into Championship Weekend pegged as the Super Bowl favorite at about +140, so the opening number was in line with that. But it didn’t stay there long after the Steelers managed to hold off a late surge from the Jets.

“The opening line quickly went to the Packers -2 and looks like it may be going higher,” Chuck Esposito, Race and Sports Executive at the Venetian Resort and Casino, told *********** Sunday night.

Esposito was right about that. Later in the evening, most books had tagged another half point on the Packers, making them -2.5 with the juice set around -120. By Monday morning, most offshore books were dealing -3 (+100) while Vegas shops -2.5 flat.

With early numbers like that coming out, it’s pretty obvious the betting public’s love affair with Green Bay is still in the honeymoon stage. That was the biggest factor in setting the line, according to veteran oddsmaker Pete Korner, of Esportclub LLC.

“The main factor in making this one line was perception,” Korner told ***********. “The perception is that Green Bay is the best team playing right now. They were going to be favorites over the AFC winner no matter who it was.”

Korner actually sent out Green Bay -3 with Cheesehead bettors cleaning up on their late run in the regular season and into the first three rounds of the playoffs.

“They were by far the hottest team in the league down the stretch and the betting public here in Nevada sportsbooks backed them in all three playoff games and did extremely well,” Esposito adds. “But I think you will see plenty of action on the Steelers getting points as it gets closer to game day and that number - especially on the moneyline - will start to drop.”

You could make a good case for a Steelers bet too, which is the perfect situation for the books looking to balance their action on both sides. With Green Bay surging, some are overlooking the fact that Pittsburgh has won eight of its last nine games and has covered the number in six of those contests. During that stretch the Steelers have allowed more than 20 points only twice.

Pittsburgh has also been a regular under wager for many bettors, though the amount of action the books see on the Super Bowl could impact the total as well. Square bettors love over bets as they slam their Budweisers and scarf down their wings.

“The total has been going under the past few years and even though both teams have dynamic offenses, they are two of the very best defensives teams in the game,” Korner says. “I don't think this number runs too far but on a day like this, the public rules and that means they will bet the over.”

Whichever side you decide to lay your money on, the buzz of a Steelers-Packers Super Bowl has Vegas and online betting organizations furiously rubbing their hands together, expecting another huge handle.

“We think it’s going to be one of the most popular Super Bowl’s ever,” says Jay Kornegay, Las Vegas Hilton Sportsbook Director. “Currently, these are the two most popular teams playing for the crown. I don’t know if it will surpass the record from 2006 Super Bowl between the Seahawks and the Steelers but I’m very positive it will surpass last year’s number. The record for Nevada is $94 million - last year we wrote $82 million.”

**Udog** · 01-27-2011, 09:09 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Pittsburgh vs. Green Bay
The Steelers look to build on their 9-1 ATS record in their last 10 playoff games. Pittsburgh is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Packers favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+3). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 6

Game 101-102: Pittsburgh vs. Green Bay (6:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 141.498; Green Bay 142.509
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 1; 49
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 3; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+3); Over

**Udog** · 01-27-2011, 09:09 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Sunday, February 6

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PITTSBURGH (14 - 4) vs. GREEN BAY (13 - 6) - 2/6/2011, 6:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 59-38 ATS (+17.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 1-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 01-27-2011, 09:10 AM

NFL
Short Sheet

Sunday, February 6

Super Bowl XLV (at Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, TX)
PITTSBURGH vs. GREEN BAY, 6:25 PM ET
PITTSBURGH: 59-38 ATS as an underdog
GREEN BAY: 10-2 Under off SU win

**Udog** · 01-27-2011, 09:10 AM

NFL

Sunday, February 6

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Trend Report
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6:30 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. GREEN BAY
Pittsburgh is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Green Bay is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Pittsburgh

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**Udog** · 01-28-2011, 09:56 AM

NFL Pro Bowl: What bettors need to know

AFC vs. NFC (-1, 63)

Can’t wait until the Super Bowl to get your football betting fix? The Pro Bowl’s got you covered.

Some of the AFC and NFC’s brightest stars will line up in Hawaii for the NFL’s annual all-star game Sunday. Here are a few things you need to know if you’re considering betting on the game.

Odds

The NFC is a small favorite, opening as 1-point chalk. The total is set at 63.

What’s at stake?

Not much, other than pride and a few extra shekels in the players’ bank accounts. Each player on the winning team will receive $45,000, while players on the losing team get $22,500.

History lesson

The AFC won last year’s Pro Bowl 41-31 and has been victorious in six of its last 10 showdowns with the NFC.

The highest-scoring Pro Bowl in the last decade was 2004, when the NFC edged the AFC 55-52. The lowest-scoring contest during that span was in 2006, a 23-17 win by the NFC.

The AFC, which has been held to 30 points or less just twice in the past 10 years, holds a 14-11 edge in the all-time series.

Breaking down the skill positions

Comparing one Pro Bowl roster to the next is like comparing diamonds. Each is very special but also has its specific flaws.

The AFC’s offense boasts the NFL’s leading passer, San Diego Chargers QB Philip Rivers. He’ll be tossing to the league’s top receiver, Denver’s Brandon Lloyd and Indianapolis’ Reggie Wayne, who finished third in receiving yards. The Chiefs’ Dwayne Bowe and Patriots’ Wes Welker round out the AFC’s WR corps.

On the ground, the AFC hands the ball to NFL leading rusher, Houston’s Arian Foster, as well as the second-leading rusher, Kansas City’s Jamaal Charles, and former rushing champ Chris Johnson.

The NFC has a dual-threat in Michael Vick, who can do damage through the air and on the ground. At receiver, the conference goes with Atlanta’s Roddy White, Detroit’s Calvin Johnson, Dallas' Miles Austin and Arizona’s Larry Fitzgerald, giving the NFC a size advantage on the wings, especially when you add tight ends Jason Witten and Tony Gonzalez into the mix.

The NFC’s rushing attack is led by Atlanta’s Michael Turner, Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson and St. Louis’ Steven Jackson, presenting a smash-mouth ground game that would rather run through tacklers than around them.

Peterson, who won the MVP award in 2008, has a chance to become the all-time touchdown leader in the Pro Bowl if he finds the end zone this Sunday, giving him four career scores in the all-star event.

No Super players

Last year’s decision by the NFL to move the Pro Bowl ahead two weeks means players on this year’s Super Bowl teams won’t be in the all-star game.

The absence of Pittsburgh and Green Bay players will be most felt on the defensive side of the ball. The Steelers’ James Harrison, Troy Polamalu and Brett Keisel will all be missing in action, as will the Packers’ Nick Collins, Clay Matthews, Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams.

The NFC’s offence will have to make do without Green Bay’s Greg Jennings and Chad Clifton, while the AFC will be without Steelers center Maurkice Pouncey.

Injury bug

Several of the AFC’s top offensive players won’t be playing in Hawaii.

Tom Brady, Maurice Jones-Drew, Andre Johnson and Antonio Gates were all selected as starters but will not be playing due to various injuries. Replacing them on the AFC roster are Matt Cassel, Chris Johnson, Wes Welker and Zach Miller.

All the NFC’s selected offensive starters will suit up Sunday except for Eagles tackle Jason Peters and WR DeSean Jackson.

Defensively, the AFC will be without Dwight Freeney, Richard Seymour and Ed Reed, while the NFC will miss the services of Ndamukong Suh, Patrick Willis, Lance Briggs, Brian Urlacher and Asante Samuel.

Eager for Vick-tory

Don’t count Mike Vick among the players that fail to take a Pro Bowl appearance seriously.

The former dog-killer is eager to cap off his remarkable comeback season with a strong showing at the all-star game.

“I’m very thankful and happy to be here and I’m going to try and put on a great show for the fans,” Vick told reporters. “This one feels great due to the fact that I’ve been through so much. To be able to get back to this position is paramount to me and I’m just thankful.”

Matt Ryan and Drew Brees will back up Vick Sunday, while Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning and Cassel will be under center for the AFC.

**Udog** · 01-30-2011, 12:48 PM

NFL Pro Bowl could get rained on Sunday night

NFL organizers might regret moving the Pro Bowl back to Hawaii with rain in the forecast for Sunday’s battle between the NFC and AFC.

The forecast in Honolulu in calling for rain showers which could dampen the annual event between the best players in the NFL. Scattered showers and light winds are expected to drop the game-time temperatures inside Aloha Stadium into the mid 60s.

Sunday’s game is being played on FieldTurf artificial grass, so the rain should drain quickly, eliminating puddles and soggy running conditions. However, quarterbacks, receivers and running backs may have a tough time hanging on to the football.

The Pro Bowl spread is currently set as a pick, dropping from its original post of NFC -1.5. The total for the game is at 64 after climbing from 62 points. The Pro Bowl has a 2-2 over/under mark the last four years with the NFC going 3-1 ATS in that span.

Last season, the AFC defeated the NFC 41-34 as 2.5-point underdogs, playing over the 57-point total in Miami.

**Udog** · 02-05-2011, 12:47 PM

NFL

Sunday, 2/6/2011

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NFL total bias: Super Bowl XLV over/under pick
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I wonder where Aaron Rodgers was when Ben Roethlisberger was out living it up at a pub in Texas Tuesday, belting out Billy Joel’s Piano Man?

That was my first thought after seeing the video that’s blowing up all over the interweb – and I realize that’s probably unfair.

By all accounts, Big Ben was a perfect gentleman at the club, bought the house a bunch of rounds and tipped handsomely for his night on the town. But of course, with his history at watering holes, you knew the questions were coming from the media.

"It was superstition and tradition," Roethlisberger told reporters. "Tuesday night, I take the linemen out to dinner. I just had an enjoyable night. The tradition for the Super Bowl is, one night and they pick where. It's usually a steak place. They picked barbecue this time."

"We went there and wanted to listen to some live music, so we went to a piano bar."

I don’t blame the guy a bit and neither did Steelers coach Mike Tomlin, but the whole incident just underscored how important the two quarterbacks are going to be in Sunday’s big game. To me, either Roethlisberger or Rodgers is going to be the deciding factor, if, for nothing else, that the two teams are so similar.

Both are nasty clubs that can win games in the trenches and have great defenses and offenses that are known for exploiting weaknesses. They’re both franchises steeped in NFL tradition and are two of the more public betting teams in the league.

Sunday’s game has all the makings of one of the more interesting Super Bowls we’ve seen in a long time and oddsmakers and bettors alike are handling it accordingly. After some early movement on the opening odds, the Packers are pegged as 2.5-point favorites with the total holding steady at 44.5 points after opening at 46.

The total’s pretty tricky at this number. I think sharp bettors had the right idea jumping on the under to push the total down. This game has all the makings of a grimy scrap with limited scoring opportunities on both sides.

The public has been all over the Packers for weeks now, but despite all the talk, I still don’t see them as the offensive juggernaut that many do. Take another look at the NFC Championship game against Chicago, for example.

The better team came out of that game, but what did the offense do after the game settled in following Green Bay’s hot start? Not much. Chicago smacked Rodgers around in the pocket and limited the Packers to seven points in the second half – thanks to what can only be described as Cheesehead divine intervention when B.J. “The Freezer” Raji took a pick back to the house.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh’s offense did just enough to get past a tough Jets team, though it wasn’t pretty either. Roethlisberger chucked a couple of picks and only threw for 133 yards as the team leaned on running back Rashard Mendenhall and his 121 yards on the ground. Now Pittsburgh has some serious questions on the offensive line heading into Sunday’s game.

So as much as everyone has been talking about Green Bay and Pittsburgh’s offenses, both can be contained. These clubs do have weapons, but are more successful exploiting specific deficiencies in defenses than anything else. I just don’t see a lot of holes to take advantage of on either defense.

This has all the makings of a 21-17 game as both teams scrap it out and, if you’re wondering, I’m siding with Roethlisberger and his big-game experience – questionable music requests or not.

Pick: Under

Championship Round record: 1-1
Season record to date: 31-30

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**Udog** · 02-05-2011, 02:45 PM

Super Bowl XLV: What bettors need to know

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Green Bay Packers (-3, 44.5)

With two of the oldest franchises squaring off, this year’s Super Bowl is being pegged as one of the most historic in NFL history.

“We think it’s going to be one of the most popular Super Bowls ever,” said Jay Kornegay, sportsbook director at the Las Vegas Hilton. “These are the two most popular teams playing for the crown.”

The Steelers’ “Stairway to 7” started as a season of unknowns where the star quarterback was suspended for the first four games. Ben Roethlisberger has matured since his offseason transgression and will join elite quarterback company if he claims his third ring in six years.

Green Bay will aim to return the Lombardi Trophy to the land of its namesake. Forgotten is the player who tarnished his legacy among the Cheesheads as they have crowned a new savior—Aaron Rodgers.

Weather report

A snowstorm hit the Super Bowl destination as teams, fans and media infiltrated Arlington. There is a 40 percent chance of precipitation for Super Sunday with a high of 41 degrees, but anyone holding a ticket won’t feel the brunt of Mother Nature.

The retractable roof at Cowboys Stadium will be closed which should create a kickoff temperature somewhere in the low 70s.

Most pundits agree the climate-controlled venue favors the Packers. Since Rodgers took over in 2008, Green Bay has played in 12 dome games where it averaged 31.8 points per. Rodgers posted a 111.1 QB rating in that sampling behind 26 touchdowns and five interceptions.

The Packers wideouts, although not a speedy group, will benefit from the artificial turf. Greg Jennings registered at least 100 yards through the air in seven of the team’s 12 indoor games. Green Bay put up 48 and 45 points in its last two postseason dome games.

Professional handicapper Ted Sevransky told Covers last week that, “The Steelers thrive in sloppy conditions.” Since 2008, Pittsburgh has played in just two dome games, struggling to beat the Lions last year and only producing 10 points in a defeat to New Orleans at the Superdome this season.

Wagering numbers

The line for Super Bowl XLV has been tight for two weeks and with equal action coming in on these public darlings, the sportsbooks are already winning.

Kornegay said that while he didn’t expect this year’s handle to exceed the $94 million the state of Nevada wrote for the 2006 title game (Seahawks-Steelers), he does anticipate it will surpass last year’s total of $82 million.

When the Divisional Round playoff games were set, Covers interviewed a member of the Las Vegas Sports Consultants regarding potential Super Bowl lines. At that time, the LVSC spokesperson said a Packers-Steelers matchup would position Pittsburgh as a 1-point favorite with a total of 41.5. The oddsmaking group preferred the Steelers because of experience.

When the spread and total for this matchup surfaced on January 23, the numbers were much different. Covers’ opening line report indicated the majority of shops on the strip sent out a spread of 1.5 in favor of the Packers and a total of 46.

Within minutes, early bettors backed the Pack and moved the spread to -2. The next morning that number had elevated to -2.5 (-120) and the majority of offshore markets were offering -3 (+100).

Sevransky offered an explanation where the market was more impressed by three road wins by Green Bay compared to two sloppy halves of football at home by the Steelers.

A recent Covers report asked oddsmakers to divulge where they predicted the spread will land at kickoff. Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager of the MGM, said that he expects it to settle at -3 with a -110 juice. Bodog.com is already dealing a field goal and manager Richard Gardner doesn’t suspect they will move off that number.

Sharp total bettors hammered the under two Mondays ago, driving the opener down from 46 to 44. As the first week of betting progressed, the total moved up a half point and a few books had 45 on the board by Friday of this week. Stoneback said if the total goes anywhere it will move upward because the “tourists” prefer to bet the over.

The moneyline for the game hasn’t budged much. It opened with the Packers at -140 and Pittsburgh at +120. Stoneback said that wiseguy bettors often play the favorite late so if you like the Steelers to win straight up it might be beneficial to wait closer to kickoff.

Injury report

After nearly a two-week delay, Pittsburgh center Maurkice Pouncey has officially been ruled out. Mike Tomlin confirmed the status after Friday’s practice in which the rookie did not participate. Many consider Pouncey to be the best member of an offensive line that yields one sack every nine pass plays.

Backup Doug Legursky will make his first NFL start at center as Pouncey’s replacement. He will have to contend with the bull-rushing B.J. Raji in the interior. The Steelers already had to place two offensive tackles (Willie Colon, Max Starks) on injured reserve this season and reserve tackle Chris Scott missed the AFC Championship with a head injury.

Fellow lineman Chris Kemoeatu said Pouncey’s injury will serve as motivation for the rest of the team.

“We are definitely sad that he won’t be able to be with us in the Super Bowl,” Kemoeatu said. “We just have to win it for him. We know how big this is for him and him not being able to play is definitely motivating for us to go out there and get that ring for him.”

Troy Polamalu has dressed for the last three Pittsburgh games but some speculate he’s not fully recovered from an Achilles injury. The Steelers dropped him back into deep coverage more than usual and the strong safety recorded a total of eight tackles during those games.

On the Packers side, Donald Driver tweaked his quad in practice this week and has been limited but Mike McCarthy said Friday that Driver will play. Outside linebacker Erik Walden is listed as questionable with an ankle injury.

Stat pack

Both of these defenses were top-flight units in 2010. The Steelers finished first in opponent points allowed (14.5 ppg) while the Packers ranked second (15.0 ppg). Pittsburgh gave up the second-fewest yards at 276.8 per game and Green Bay ranked fifth at 309.1 yards a contest.

The Steelers took home the sack title as well with 48 on the season. No other linebacker corps in the league produced more sacks (32.5) than James Harrison, Lamar Woodley and Co.

Not far behind, Green Bay finished second during the regular season in sacks (47.0). Its group of linebackers, led by Clay Matthews, tallied 26 takedowns this year. In three playoff games, the Packers defense has posted 10 sacks and 15 quarterback hits.

If you had to nitpick and pinpoint a weakness in the Steelers defense, it would be the secondary. That grouping allowed 214.1 yards per outing which ranked 12th in the NFL. Green Bay gave up 194.2 passing yards a game which was fifth. Both Green Bay (24) and Pittsburgh (21) finished in the top 5 in interceptions.

For the Packers, the primary weak spot is defending the run, particularly between the tackles. Green Bay finished ranked 18th against the run this year (114.9 ypg). Pittsburgh surrendered just 62.8 rushing yards per game which was 27.3 yards better than the next-best team.

Offensively, these teams were very similar as well. The Packers averaged 24.3 points and 358.1 yards a contest while Pittsburgh posted 23.4 points and 345.3 yards per. All of those marks ranked in the Top 15 among league leaders.

With Rodgers transforming into the NFC’s top gunslinger, Green Bay averaged 257.8 passing yards a game which ranked fifth-best. The more conservative Pittsburgh offense finished 14th with an average of 225.1 yards through the air.

No team has ever won the Super Bowl ranking last in rushing and, while the Packers weren’t quite that bad, they did finish the regular season ranked 24th at 100.4 yards a game. The Steelers averaged 120.3 yards per contest on the ground.

Last meeting

When the Steelers and Packers squared off in Week 15 of the 2009 season, one team had won five consecutive games and the other had dropped five straight. The Steelers were positioned as 2.5-point favorites for the game with a total of 41.5.

Pittsburgh snapped its skid with a 37-36, last-second victory. Much like Super Bowl XLIII when Big Ben found Santonio Holmes in the corner of the end zone, he connected with Mike Wallace in the same place as time expired in this shootout.

Although both defenses were ranked in the top 4 going into this matchup, there wasn’t much defense to be found. Pittsburgh amassed 537 total yards on 70 plays and Green Bay had 436 on 61 snaps. Both squads were efficient on third-downs opportunities with the Packers converting 10 of 16 and the Steelers 7 of 16.

Neither team had more than 65 yards rushing but the Steelers were able to hold onto the ball for 11 more minutes than Green Bay. Mike McCarthy only called nine run plays.

Roethlisberger found Wallace streaking down the sideline on Pittsburgh’s first play from scrimmage for a 60-yard score and he finished the day with 503 yards and three touchdowns on 29 of 46 passing. Rodgers completed 26 of 48 attempts for 383 yards and three scores as well as a rushing touchdown. Neither team committed a turnover but Green Bay compiled five sacks.

Common ground

Green Bay and Pittsburgh played five common opponents during the regular season.

New York Jets: The Packers won 9-0 as road underdogs in Week 8. Pittsburgh lost at home, 22-17, in Week 15 as 3.5-point chalk.

Buffalo Bills: Green Bay won 34-7 in Week 2 as hefty home favorites. The Steelers eked out a 19-16 road victory in Week 12 as 6.5-point faves.

New England Patriots: Pittsburgh was thoroughly worked over during a 39-26 home loss in Week 10 as 4.5-point favorites. Playing without Aaron Rodgers in Week 15, the Packers nearly pulled off the impossible with a win at Foxboro but dropped a 31-27 decision as double-digit dogs in the end.

Miami Dolphins: Green Bay was searching for its identity in Week 6 and lost at home, 23-20, as 2.5-point chalk. The Steelers won on the road, 23-22, in Week 7 as field-goal favorites.

Atlanta Falcons: In the season opener sans Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh pulled out a 15-9 home win as 1-point underdogs. The Packers dropped a 20-17 decision on a last-second field goal in Week 12 as 2.5-point pups.

The Steelers went 3-1 SU and ATS versus NFC competition (Falcons, Buccaneers, Saints, Panthers) this season. The Packers compiled 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS records against the AFC (Buffalo, Miami, New York, New England).

Familiar face

There could be one X-factor most handicappers are overlooking in this matchup.

Dom Capers was the defensive coordinator in Pittsburgh from 1992-94 when Dick LeBeau was the defensive backs coach. But Jeremy Kapinos was a member of the Packers organization more recently, and now he plays for the Steelers.

Kapinos punted for Green Bay during the 2009 season. The Packers let him go after that year and he remained a street free agent until Daniel Sepulveda tore his ACL in Week 13. Pittsburgh was in need of a punter and signed Kapinos.

While the knowledge doesn’t always pay off, Kapinos might be able to provide valuable special teams information to the Steelers as punt coverages and situations could be identified.

Notes and trends

- In 19 games this season, the Packers have not trailed by more than a touchdown at any time.

- The Jeff Sagarin ratings supply Pittsburgh with a 31.35 rating and Green Bay with a 31.18 number.

- According to the Sagarin ratings, the Packers went 7-3 against top 10 teams while the Steelers went 4-4 against top 10 teams.

- If a team scores more than 32 points in the Super Bowl they are a perfect 18-0 straight up.

- Super Bowl favorites that score fewer than 30 points are 3-12 ATS in the last 20 years.

- Teams that fail to score 21 points in the Super Bowl are 1-20 SU and 3-17-1 ATS while teams that post 21 points or more are 26-9 SU and 23-9-3 ATS.

- When a team scores 27 points or more it is 22-1 SU and 19-3-1 ATS in the Super Bowl.

- Halftime bettors should know that teams with a lead at the Super Bowl break are 33-8 straight up.

- In the 44-year history of the Super Bowl, only nine times has the favorite won the game, but failed to cover the spread.

- The underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last nine Super Bowls.

- The NFC has covered three straight Super Bowls but the AFC has won five of the last seven.

- Teams that win the Super Bowl time of possession battle are 31-10-3 ATS.

- The total has gone OVER in 15 of last 24 Super Bowls.

- Five of the last six Super Bowls have gone UNDER.

- A Super Bowl has never gone into overtime.

- Higher-seeded Super Bowl teams are 1-11-2 ATS.

- Super Bowl XLV will mark the first time in nine years the NFC is listed as the favorite.

**Udog** · 02-06-2011, 10:13 AM

NFL

Sunday, February 6

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Tips and Trends
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Green Bay Packers [FOX | 6:29 PM ET]

STEELERS: Pittsburgh is back in the Super Bowl once again, a very familiar position for them over the past decade. The Steelers have beaten both the Ravens and the Jets at home SU and ATS to punch their ticket to the big game. Pittsburgh is 14-4 SU and 12-6 ATS overall this season. Pittsburgh has really shown their maturity away from home this season, as they are 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS on the road this year. Pittsburgh is 3-1 both SU and ATS as the listed underdog this season. 2 of those occasions were when QB Ben Roethlisberger was suspended. The Steelers are 3-1 ATS in non-conference games this season. Pittsburgh is 0-3 ATS when the projected total is between 42.5 and 49 PTS this year. Despite missing multiple games, Roethlisberger threw for 3,200 YDS and 17 TD's this year. RB Rashard Mendenhall came into his own this year, as he rushed for a team high 1,273 YDS and 13 TD's this season. Mendenhall became the go to back this year, and the focal point of a powerful rushing attack. WR Mike Wallace was the leading receiver for the Steelers, as he caught 60 balls for 1,257 YDS this year. The Steelers averaged 23.4 PPG this year, while allowing an NFL low 14.5 PPG. Pittsburgh had the best defense in the NFL this year, an intimidating unit that was also very smart. Pittsburgh always found ways to create turnovers and be in the right defensive positions at the right time. The Steelers were also impossible to run against, as they allowed an NFL low 62.8 rushing YPG this season. The Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win. The Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. The Steelers are 4-1 ATS against a team with a winning record. Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as the listed underdog. The Steelers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

Steelers are 9-1 ATS last 10 playoff games.
Over is 5-1 last 6 playoff games as the listed underdog.

Key Injuries - C Maurkice Pouncey (ankle) is out.
DE Aaron Smith (tricep) is doubtful.

Projected Score: 24 (SIDE of the Day)

PACKERS: (-3, O/U 44.5) Green Bay has gone from a Wild Card team to playing in the biggest football game in the world. The Packers have been brilliant this postseason, winning both SU and ATS in each playoff game. Better yet, they've done so on the road on each occasion. Green Bay is 13-6 SU and 12-7 ATS overall this season. The Packers are 6-5 SU and 7-4 ATS in games played away from home this season. Green Bay is 7-4 ATS as a single digit favorite this year. The Packers are 3-1 ATS in non-conference games this season. QB Aaron Rodgers has been dominant this year, as he's thrown for 3,922 YDS and 28 TD's overall while completing better than 65% of his passes this year. WR Greg Jennings had 76 receptions for 1,265 YDS and 12 TD's this season for the Packers. RB Brandon Jackson has come on strong of late, as he ultimately led the team in rushing with 703 YDS this season. Defensively, the Packers only allowed 15 PPG during the regular season, the 2nd fewest in the NFL. Green Bay has an elite past rush, as they had 47 sacks this year, again 2nd most in the league. The Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Packers are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Green Bay is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite. The Packers are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. The Packers are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games played on fieldturf. Green Bay is 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games following an ATS win. The Packers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as the listed favorite.

Packers are 5-1 ATS against a team with a winning record.
Under is 6-1 last 7 games following a SU win.

Key Injuries - T Chad Clifton (neck) is probable.
WR Donald Driver (quad) is probable.

Projected Score: 20

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**Udog** · 02-06-2011, 10:14 AM

NFL
Write-Up

Sunday, February 6

Super Bowl random stuff........

-- How is the NFC's #6 seed favored over the AFC's #2 seed?

-- How is the team with far less Super Bowl experience the favorite?

-- Steelers beat Green Bay 37-36 in one of 2009's best games, at Heinz Field, scoring on a 19-yard pass on the game's final play.

-- Packers had to win three road games to get to this point; Pittsburgh had to win a couple of home games.

-- Team wearing white jerseys won the last six Super Bowls. Steelers are the visitor, will be wearing white Sunday night.

-- If the Giants held on to a 31-10 4th quarter lead against the Eagles, then the Packers probably wouldn't have made the playoffs, the Giants would've.

All that said, I'm thinking injuries to Rodgers/Matthews cost the Packers the NFC North title; they're healthy now, while Steelers' center Pouncey is out, and losing a center is a big deal. Playing the game indoors helps Green Bay and its passing attack. I'll take Green Bay to win an exciting Super Bowl, 31-27.

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NFL Trends and Indexes - Super Bowl (2/6)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Super Bowl (2/6)

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