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NFL YTD 30-26 +0.15 units
4* 0-1 -4.4 units
3* 3-1 +5.7 units
2* 4-5 -3.0 units
1* 23-19 +1.85 units
NFL/CFB Combined 67-55 +7.55 units
4* 1-2 -4.8 units
3* 3-1 +5.7 units
2* 4-5 -3.0 units
1* 52-43 +4.45 units
I'm going to end 2010-11 in the black either way on my combined football despite mediocre results on my top plays. I have, however, hit four of my last five 3* and higher plays. I split last week on 3* in the playoffs, winning with Pittsburgh and losing with Chicago.
Many argue the Super Bowl is not the game to make a big bet as it is an isolated game and impossible to get an edge on. I STRONGLY disagree. Super Bowl lines are often just whacked. They are based on emotion with incredible overreaction to results of the previous two weeks. Last year's favoring of Indy over New Orleans (in retrospect, ridiculous) is proof of this. I am making this a 3* play because that's how I'm betting it as I believe adamantly the wrong team is favored here and the underdog will win.
3* Steelers +3 (-130)
1) I consider Pittsburgh the most complete team in the NFL. While their defense gets all of the attention, they score a lot of points and have a tremendous RB in Mendenhall.
2) GB has several top players who lack experience in big games (like cornerbacks Shields and Williams, LB Matthews and DT Raji). While they have been outstanding in the playoffs, many of Pittsburgh's key players are in their third Super Bowl. That has to count for something.
3) GB finally found a RB late in the season but James Starks is a sixth round rookie.
4) Both teams spit out big leads in the conference finals and had to fight to hold on. But GB was very shaky against a third string QB and might well have lost were it not for a critical interception and terrible play-calling by Mike Martz.
5) I don't think Big Ben will quit like Cutler did.
6) The key to my bet is THE LINE. I strongly urge buying this up to the full 3 points. If I'm wrong and GB wins by a field goal, I lose NOTHING. That gives me a strong feeling of confidence here. My worst case scenario has the Steelers losing a close game. I do not think either team will win by a wide margin as they are fairly even in talent. But my own personal line is Pitts -2 1/2. My buy-up gives me a play on a team I think will win straight up and gives me a full field goal of insurance.
7) With the game on the line, who do you want to make the big call, calm and collected Tomlin or the perpetually-scrambing McCarthy?
This is a very interesting game. The two defensive coordinators, two old goats, are at the top of their games right now (Capers and LeBeau). The two quarterbacks are playing very well. I'll take the experience and the points and I'm backing it up with my own money.
I urge playing this now as I suspect the line will drop as we approach game day.
Opinion only:
Under in this game (Two excellent defenses and brilliant coordinators)
4* 0-1 -4.4 units
3* 3-1 +5.7 units
2* 4-5 -3.0 units
1* 23-19 +1.85 units
NFL/CFB Combined 67-55 +7.55 units
4* 1-2 -4.8 units
3* 3-1 +5.7 units
2* 4-5 -3.0 units
1* 52-43 +4.45 units
I'm going to end 2010-11 in the black either way on my combined football despite mediocre results on my top plays. I have, however, hit four of my last five 3* and higher plays. I split last week on 3* in the playoffs, winning with Pittsburgh and losing with Chicago.
Many argue the Super Bowl is not the game to make a big bet as it is an isolated game and impossible to get an edge on. I STRONGLY disagree. Super Bowl lines are often just whacked. They are based on emotion with incredible overreaction to results of the previous two weeks. Last year's favoring of Indy over New Orleans (in retrospect, ridiculous) is proof of this. I am making this a 3* play because that's how I'm betting it as I believe adamantly the wrong team is favored here and the underdog will win.
3* Steelers +3 (-130)
1) I consider Pittsburgh the most complete team in the NFL. While their defense gets all of the attention, they score a lot of points and have a tremendous RB in Mendenhall.
2) GB has several top players who lack experience in big games (like cornerbacks Shields and Williams, LB Matthews and DT Raji). While they have been outstanding in the playoffs, many of Pittsburgh's key players are in their third Super Bowl. That has to count for something.
3) GB finally found a RB late in the season but James Starks is a sixth round rookie.
4) Both teams spit out big leads in the conference finals and had to fight to hold on. But GB was very shaky against a third string QB and might well have lost were it not for a critical interception and terrible play-calling by Mike Martz.
5) I don't think Big Ben will quit like Cutler did.
6) The key to my bet is THE LINE. I strongly urge buying this up to the full 3 points. If I'm wrong and GB wins by a field goal, I lose NOTHING. That gives me a strong feeling of confidence here. My worst case scenario has the Steelers losing a close game. I do not think either team will win by a wide margin as they are fairly even in talent. But my own personal line is Pitts -2 1/2. My buy-up gives me a play on a team I think will win straight up and gives me a full field goal of insurance.
7) With the game on the line, who do you want to make the big call, calm and collected Tomlin or the perpetually-scrambing McCarthy?
This is a very interesting game. The two defensive coordinators, two old goats, are at the top of their games right now (Capers and LeBeau). The two quarterbacks are playing very well. I'll take the experience and the points and I'm backing it up with my own money.
I urge playing this now as I suspect the line will drop as we approach game day.
Opinion only:
Under in this game (Two excellent defenses and brilliant coordinators)
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