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**StarDust Bum** · 01-21-2011, 07:56 PM

Spurs look to avenge loss vs. struggling Knicks

NEW YORK KNICKS (22-19)

at SAN ANTONIO SPURS (36-6)

Tip-off: Friday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: San Antonio -9, Total: 212.5

The San Antonio Spurs have just six losses so far in their very impressive start to the 2010-11 season. One of those losses came at Madison Square Garden on January 4 when the Knicks defeated them 128-115. Friday night the Spurs will be looking for revenge when the Knicks come limping into San Antonio.

After playing very well since starting the season 3-7, the Knicks have fallen back to their familiar ways of seasons past. New York enters San Antonio losers of four straight and five of their past six. The Knicks have been very successful ATS this season with a record of 25-15-1, but have lost three straight ATS. After starting the season 3-2 ATS on the road, New York has won 13 of its past 17. A big reason for the Knicks struggles recently has been poor shooting. In their 10-point loss to the Kings on January 14, they shot a season-worst 31.5 percent from the field and their 83 points was their second lowest total of the season. In their defeat to the Rockets on Wednesday, the Knicks scored just 89 points, marking the third time during this six-game stretch that they have scored less than 90 points. Prior to this six-game span, New York had failed to score 90 points just once this season. Raymond Felton lit up the Spurs for 28 points at MSG, but has really struggled in his past three games, totaling just 27 points and combining to shoot 10-for-42 (23.8%) from the field. Amar’e Stoudemire also scored 28 points in the win over San Antonio on January 4, and is averaging 31.5 PPG on 58 percent shooting over his past four games against the Spurs. The last time Stoudemire played at the AT&T Center, he scored 41 points, but San Antonio defeated Stoudemire’s Suns 113-110 on February 28, 2010.

The Spurs enter on a seven-game win streak and own the best record in the NBA at 36-6. The Celtics are the only other team in the NBA with single-digit losses. Along with having the best record SU in the NBA, the Spurs are also one of the better teams ATS in the NBA, posting a 25-16 record including wins in four of their past five and nine of their past 13. At home, San Antonio is 14-11 ATS and has won five of its past seven ATS. Defense has keyed the Spurs during their current seven-game win streak. Since allowing the Knicks and Celtics to shoot a combined 57.8 percent and average 116.5 PPG in their only consecutive losses of the season on January 4-5, the Spurs have held opponents to just 40.6% FG and 91.3 PPG. DeJuan Blair is averaging 14.3 PPG and 9.3 RPG on 63.3% FG in recording double-doubles in two of his past three games. The Spurs are 7-0 this season when Blair has a double-double.

The Spurs are still seething from allowing the Knicks to score 128 points in their last meeting which was the most points they had allowed in a regulation game since March of 1993 when they allowed 132 points at the Boston Garden. History says the Knicks recent offensive struggles should continue on Friday, as New York has averaged just 85.7 PPG on 42.3 percent shooting in losing their past seven games at AT&T Center. I’m taking San Antonio minus the points.

These two FoxSheets trends also side with the Spurs:

SAN ANTONIO is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive unders this season. The average score was SAN ANTONIO 106.8, OPPONENT 94.8 - (Rating = 3*).

SAN ANTONIO is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The average score was SAN ANTONIO 103.7, OPPONENT 96.7 - (Rating = 1*).

**StarDust Bum** · 01-21-2011, 07:57 PM

Hawks likely without Horford Friday vs. New Orleans

NEW ORLEANS HORNETS (27-16)

at ATLANTA HAWKS (28-15)

Tip-off: Friday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Atlanta -4, Total: 184.5

New Orleans aims for its seventh straight victory when it travels to Atlanta on Friday night. The Hawks are also red-hot with seven wins in their past eight games, but they will likely be without starting center Al Horford who is expected to miss this weekend’s action after spraining his ankle on Tuesday.

The Hornets are also going for a season-high fourth straight road win when they visit Atlanta. But these wins have not come easy, as New Orleans has trailed by at least 12 points in the second half of three of its past four games. On Wednesday, the Hornets were down by 15 in the third quarter to Memphis, but roared back for a 103-102 overtime win. Chris Paul, who has been bothered by an ankle injury lately, led the way with 20 points and 12 assists, and he was also the catalyst in a Dec. 26 win over Atlanta. The Hornets trailed by nine points in the second half in that game, but Paul scored 13 of his 22 points in the third quarter and rallied his team to a 93-86 victory.

New Orleans is second in the NBA in scoring defense (92.2 PPG), and has limited its opponents to just 90.8 PPG during its six-game winning streak, which marks the longest since an 8-0 start to the season. David West (19.0 PPG, 7.3 RPG) is averaging 24.3 PPG and 9.5 RPG over his past four contests and had 19 points and 11 rebounds versus Memphis for his eighth double-double. Emeka Okafor has five straight double-doubles, averaging 14.6 PPG and 13.2 RPG (5.2 offensive RPG) in those five contests. Expect the duo to control the boards against a Hawks team without Horford and his 9.7 RPG.

The Hawks are riding high after a big overtime win in Miami on Tuesday, 93-89. Atlanta held the Heat to 36.4% FG and forced 16 turnovers to win its sixth straight game decided by five points or fewer. The Hawks shot poorly from the field (40.0% FG) and failed to score 100 points for the first time in eight games. Now the Hawks return home, where they are 11-1 SU since Nov. 22, but are just 7-13 ATS this season including two straight ATS losses. With Horford out and Marvin Williams expected to miss his 10th consecutive game with a back injury, Josh Smith will be a key to Atlanta’s success on Friday. Smith has five straight double-doubles against the Hornets including 17 points and 17 rebounds the last time the Hornets visited Philips Arena.

The Hawks have won two straight home games against the Hornets, winning easily 89-79 and 121-98. This FoxSheets trend also likes Atlanta to win and cover.

Play Against - Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW ORLEANS) - after having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). (67-34 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.3%, +29.6 units. Rating = 2*).

And this FoxSheets five-star special thinks the game will finish Under the total.

NEW ORLEANS is 14-1 UNDER (+12.9 Units) after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread this season. The average score was NEW ORLEANS 88.3, OPPONENT 88.7 - (Rating = 5*).

**StarDust Bum** · 01-21-2011, 07:57 PM

Denver tries to stay hot hosting Lakers

LOS ANGELES LAKERS (31-13)

at DENVER NUGGETS (24-17)

Tip-off: Friday, 10:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Los Angeles -1, Total: 212

Carmelo Anthony might not stay in Denver much longer, but Friday night he hosts Kobe Bryant and the defending NBA Champion Lakers.

Having to deal with intense trade rumors over the last couple weeks, the Nuggets have seemed to find their footing. After losing three straight games, the Nuggets have won four of five. Denver has struggled this season ATS going just 17-22 and 10-11 at home, but it has won four of its past five games and are 6-1-1 ATS in its past eight home contests. Carmelo Anthony recovered from a pair of 12-point outings to score 35 points in the Nuggets 112-107 win over the Thunder on Wednesday. Denver has averaged 125.3 PPG on 54.6% FG in winning its past four home games. Seven players have averaged double figures in that stretch, including Arron Afflalo at 18.0. Nene is averaging 18.0 PPG on 77.1 percent shooting (27-35) over his past four games.

Since winning seven straight games, the Lakers have lost two of three including a 109-100 loss at Dallas on Wednesday. They are just 5-11 ATS over their past 16 games. They are an awful 19-25 ATS on the season, including 10-12 ATS on the road where they have lost four in a row and five of their past six ATS. In their loss to Dallas, the Lakers allowed the Mavericks to shoot 55 percent from the field and allowed 100 points for just the fourth time in their past 23 games. Pau Gasol has scored at least 20 points in four of his past five games, averaging 20.2 PPG over that span. The Lakers have not enjoyed their past four visits to the Pepsi Center, losing all four while shooting 35.5 percent from the field and averaging just 91.5 PPG. Kobe Bryant and Lamar Odom have really struggled during those games. Odom has averaged just 8.5 PPG on 29.3% FG, while Bryant, playing in just three of the four games, has shot 35% FG, including 4-of-19 from three-point range.

Despite the distractions of Anthony’s trade rumors, the Nuggets seem to have turned the corner and I like Denver to hand the Lakers their third loss in their past four games.

The FoxSheets says:

Play Against - Road underdogs (LA LAKERS) - after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season. (58-25 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.9%, +30.5 units. Rating = 3*).

This four-star FoxSheets trend thinks the game will finish Over the total:

DENVER is 10-0 OVER (+10.0 Units) in home games versus teams who make 6 or more 3-point shots/game on the season this season. The average score was DENVER 120.3, OPPONENT 108.3 - (Rating = 4*).

**StarDust Bum** · 01-21-2011, 07:58 PM

Trending: NBA Records After SU Wins/Losses

As we head into another busy weekend just past the midway point of the NBA season, we decided to examine momentum. With 20 of the 30 NBA teams in action Friday (Jan. 21), hopefully this will help you to win bets on Saturday and Sunday and for the remainder of the season. We wanted to find out which teams consistently build upon a straight-up win and which teams have a greater habit of posting consecutive defeats. We also compiled the Over/Under numbers to determine the teams that put in the most consistent offensive and defensive performances from night to night. This study only refers to After STRAIGHT UP Wins and Losses. We will delve into After ATS Wins and Losses at a later date. All of the numbers here are through Thursday, Jan. 20.

SU After SU Wins/Losses
In this section we are focusing simply on STRAIGHT UP records. These do not incorporate spreads in any way. So far this season, NBA teams are 349-263 (57%) After SU Wins. The teams with the best records also have the best After SU Wins records (San Antonio 30-5, Boston 25-6, Miami 24-6, L.A. Lakers 24-7). And the five worst records in the NBA have five of the six worst After SU Wins records (Washington 1-11, Sacramento 1-8, Minnesota 2-8, New Jersey 2-8, Cleveland 2-6). But the numbers are much different for teams recovering the quickest after SU losses. Although the Spurs and Celtics remain two of the five best teams in this category, the Heat and Lakers are only 6-6 in this scenario. San Antonio has won these games by a 7.3 PPG margin, which is second to Boston’s 8.1 PPG margin following an SU defeat.
Best SU Records After SU LOSSES
San Antonio 83% (5-1)
Chicago 79% (11-3)
Oklahoma City 79% (11-3)
Utah 79% (11-3)
Boston 67% (6-3)
These teams are so bad, that they have been losing several games in a row. The usual suspects are on this list (albeit with slightly higher success rates than after a win) with Washington being the surprising absence with an 11-16 (41%) record after an SU loss. Minnesota’s 8-24 mark can be attributed to its lack of defense, as the Timberwolves are allowing 107.9 PPG after an SU defeat.
Worst SU Records After SU LOSSES
Cleveland 16% (5-27)
Sacramento 23% (7-23)
Minnesota 25% (8-24)
New Jersey 26% (8-23)

Since most of the good teams were good in both categories and the bad teams were bad in both categories, we took the difference of Records After Wins minus Records After Losses and found seven teams that carry a difference of at least 25% in these two categories. Houston (0%), Toronto (-1%) and San Antonio (2%) are the three teams with virtually identical records after wins as after losses.
Greatest Differential: After SU Wins minus After SU Losses
New York 35% (68% after win, 33% after loss)
Dallas 31% (74% after win, 43% after loss)
Miami 30% (80% after win, 50% after loss)
L.A. Lakers 27% (77% after win, 50% after loss)
Orlando 26% (73% after win, 47% after loss)
Indiana -30% (25% after win, 55% after loss)
Washington -32% (8% after win, 41% after loss)

ATS After SU Wins/Losses
In this section we are referring to AGAINST THE SPREAD records following Straight Up wins and losses. So far this season, NBA teams are 304-289 (51%) ATS After SU Wins, which shows that teams are rarely compiling long ATS win streaks or losing skids. However there are five teams winning over 60% ATS after an SU win, and these are certainly not the NBA elite, as three of these teams have a losing SU record and the Knicks are just barely over .500 at 22-19 SU. Speaking of New York, its record is so gaudy here due to 110.3 PPG after an SU win which is 1.7 PPG greater than any other NBA team in this scenario.
Best ATS Records After SU WINS
New York 82% (18-4 ATS)
L.A. Clippers 73% (11-4 ATS)
Philadelphia 65% (11-6 ATS)
Dallas 64% (16-9 ATS)
Toronto 64% (7-4 ATS)
The Wizards rear their ugly heads again on this list, with an identical 1-11 mark both SU and ATS following a (rare) SU win. Washington has been outscored by 12.6 PPG (105.9 to 93.3) following a victory. Actually all of these teams below 40% ATS are among the NBA’s worst, which shows that when a bad team wins SU, it likely won’t win two in a row SU or ATS.
Worst ATS Records After SU WINS
Washington 8% (1-11 ATS)
Sacramento 33% (3-6 ATS)
Milwaukee 36% (5-9 ATS)
Cleveland 38% (3-5 ATS)

But which teams are the best at putting a loss behind them and bouncing back with an ATS win? Of the “best ATS records after SU wins” group, only Philadelphia carries a similar stellar mark after SU losses. The other four teams in this aforementioned group are all below 50% ATS following SU losses.
Best ATS Records After SU LOSSES
Memphis 67% (14-7 ATS)
San Antonio 67% (4-2 ATS)
Philadelphia 65% (15-8 ATS)
Chicago 64% (9-5 ATS)
Oklahoma City 64% (9-5 ATS)

This category is certainly telling as bettors have raised the lines expecting good teams to recover from SU losses. But judging by the great teams on this list of ATS futility, it is not the proper mentality to think that a great team will automatically bounce back from a defeat.
Worst ATS Records After SU LOSSES
Miami 18% (2-9 ATS)
Dallas 29% (4-10 ATS)
Cleveland 29% (9-22 ATS)
Orlando 33% (5-10 ATS)
New York 35% (6-11 ATS)

Again, we took the difference of Records After Wins minus Records After Losses and found five teams that carry a difference of at least 25% in these two categories. And again we find that the Knicks, Heat, Mavericks and Wizards are the streakiest teams in the league both SU and ATS. Philadelphia (-1%), Denver (2%) and Atlanta (-2%) are the three teams with virtually identical ATS records after wins as after losses.

Greatest Differential: ATS After SU Wins minus After SU Losses
New York 47% (82% after win, 35% after loss)
Miami 41% (59% after win, 18% after loss)
Dallas 35% (64% after win, 29% after loss)
L.A. Clippers 29% (73% after win, 44% after loss)
Washington -44% (8% after win, 52% after loss)

ATS After SU Wins/Losses
And to conclude this column, we give you the best Over and Under percentages after SU wins and losses. For the best Over bets, the results are a little surprising. The Clippers and Suns rank 2nd and 6th respectively in PPG after SU wins, but the Kings and 76ers have only put up 96.8 PPG and 98.4 PPG, respectively in this category. Sacramento makes this list because of surrendering a hefty 105.0 PPG after a win, which is much higher than its 101.4 PPG allowed after a loss.
Best OVER percentage after SU WIN
L.A. Clippers 67% (10 over, 5 under)
Phoenix 67% (12-6)
Sacramento 67% (6-3)
Philadelphia 65% (11-6)
Denver is a shocker here with the third-most points (106.7 PPG) in the NBA following an SU win. Chicago’s inclusion here is much less surprising considering its league-best 91.7 PPG allowed after an SU win.
Best UNDER percentage after SU WIN
Indiana 81% (13 under, 3 over)
Chicago 68% (19-9)
Detroit 67% (10-5)
Denver 65% (13-7)

The Nuggets make more sense on this list, with their NBA-leading 108.1 PPG after an SU loss. They have also given up 106.6 PPG in this scenario, which is the third-highest number in the league. Oklahoma City is second in scoring in this scenario at 106.5 PPG, but Detroit (96.6 PPG) is a bit of a surprise.
Best OVER percentage after SU LOSS
Oklahoma City 71% (10 over, 4 under)
Denver 63% (10-6)
Detroit 62% (16-10)

The Hornets are at the top of this list because they have the fewest points scored (90.5 PPG) and allowed (91.4 PPG) when following an SU loss.
Best UNDER percentage after SU LOSS
New Orleans 75% (12 under, 4 over)
Charlotte 71% (17-7)
L.A. Lakers 67% (8-4)
San Antonio 67% (4-2)

**StarDust Bum** · 01-21-2011, 08:24 PM

NCAA Odds: Butler welcomes Green Bay

The Butler Bulldogs can’t afford too many more losses as they shoot for a fifth consecutive NCAA tournament appearance. They host the Green Bay Phoenix in Horizon League play on a light Friday night.

Butler is 13-6 straight-up (10-6-1 against the spread). The team hasn’t had more than six losses in a season since before coach Brad Stevens took over in 2007-2008.

The Bulldogs were the darling of college basketball last year with their Cinderella run to the NCAA title game, losing by two points (61-59) to Duke. However, success has its consequences and sophomore Gordon Hayward (15.5 PPG, 8.2 RPG) left for the NBA. Graduating senior Willie Veasley was another key loss.

Butler still has two of the best players in the conference in guard Shelvin Mack and big man Matt Howard. They combine for over 31 PPG. A consistent third scorer is still needed and 6-foot-11 sophomore center Andrew Smith (8.6 PPG) could be the answer.

Smith is averaging 14.8 PPG the last four games. He had 15 points in Butler’s last game on Sunday at Wright State, but it wasn’t good enough in a 69-64 loss as four-point favorites.

The 133 combined points scored went ‘over’ the modest 126 ½-point total. The ‘over’ is 4-0 in Butler’s last four games and 11-6 on the season. The offense scores 74.1 PPG and allows 65.2 PPG. Those numbers were 68.7 PPG and 59.4 PPG respectively last year.

The Bulldogs are 7-1 SU and 4-2 ATS at home this year. They were upset 71-68 in OT by Evansville back in November. Their conference home record is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS. Coach Stevens’ squad is 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS in Horizon League road games as opponents sense vulnerability and want revenge for prior-year defeats.

Butler, Wright State and Cleveland State are all 5-2 SU in the conference, a game behind Valparaiso. The only Horizon League team to make March Madness will likely be the conference tourney winner. Butler could get an at-large bid if it wins out in the regular season, not a likely scenario.

Green Bay (10-9 SU, 7-6 ATS) had a tough 6-9 SU start to the year under first year coach Brian Wardle. The 31-year-old is one of the youngest coaches in the country and the school hopes he can duplicate some of the success the young Stevens has had at Butler.

Wardle’s guys have won their last four games (3-0 ATS). The non-spread affair was a ‘gimme’ over Houston Baptist (77-61). The last three were home wins and ‘covers’ over less talented conference teams; Milwaukee (69-64), Loyola of Illinois (71-68) and Illinois-Chicago (74-50).

Green Bay is led by its senior guard combination of Rahmon Fletcher (16.7 PPG) and Bryquis Perine (12.1 PPG). Both like to shoot the three-ball, hitting at 37.8 and 39.3 percent respectively.

The frontcourt has a seven-foot freshman in Alec Brown (9.1 PPG, 5.3 RPG), who badly needs to stay out of foul trouble in this game. Junior college transfer Jarvis Williams leads the team in rebounding (5.8) at just 6-foot-5 and there’s not a lot of height outside of Brown. Butler should be able to capitalize down low offensively.

Green Bay is 2-5 SU away this year, but 4-3 ATS. The ‘over’ is 4-2-1 in road games.

Butler won and ‘covered’ both meetings between the teams last year. It’s 4-1 ATS in its last five home games versus Green Bay. The ‘over’ is 5-1 in the last six at Butler.

Neither team is reporting any significant injuries. ESPNU will have the 4 p.m. (PT) tip-off from Hinkle Fieldhouse.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-21-2011, 08:25 PM

Lakers visit Nuggets on NBA betting schedule

The Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets both have plenty to be angry about as they prepare for their NBA betting warfare at Pepsi Arena in Denver on Friday night. The matchup is part of a packed slate of games on the hardwood.

ESPN will have the pickup of this game on television starting at 7:30 p.m. (PT), and preceded by the Knicks, Spurs contest in San Antonio.

For the Lakers, disappointment really stems from the loss at the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday. In spite of the fact that Dirk Nowitzki was kept under wraps, LA really couldn't figure out how to stop anyone else on the team, as there were three other Mavs that scored at least 20 points on the night.

The 109-100 setback was the most recent in a season full of games that just make you scratch your head about the Lakers, this despite their rock-solid 31-13 record and pace to win 58 games.

Head coach Phil Jackson and company haven't been on the road all that much in the 2011 calendar year, and they have also yet to cover the NBA odds in one of these games away from Staples Center either. Los Angeles is just 2-2 SU and 0-3-1 ATS on the road since a December 29 triumph over the New Orleans Hornets.

As always when you're analyzing the NBA betting lines on the men in purple and gold, you have to talk about the three stars – Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, and Lamar Odom. All three put up at least 20 points in the loss at Dallas, and they are all in fine form at the moment. The trio is combining to average a whopping 59.2 PPG, 25.1 RPG and 11.5 APG, and they are 1-2-3 in all but rebounding on the team.

The big question is where the rest of the scoring is coming from. The only other player averaging double digits in scoring per night is Andrew Bynum, who is dealing with an elbow injury that could limit him on Friday.

For the hosts, their frustration is that Carmelo Anthony is still on the team. There is no doubt that the Nuggets are trying to move 'Melo before he opts out of his contract at the end of the season, but there really only seems to be one interested trading partner right now, the New York Knicks.

The New Jersey Nets bowed out of the trade talks earlier this week, which really does leave Denver between and rock and a hard place with its biggest star.

The good news is that Anthony continues to play well, as he is coming off of a 35-point effort against the Oklahoma City Thunder. He is pacing the league's best offense at 107.3 PPG, averaging 23.5 PPG this year.

Anthony has a tendency to shine against the best teams in the NBA as well. He already has 35 against the Oklahoma City Thunder, 31 against the San Antonio Spurs, 35 against the Orlando Magic, 32 against the Chicago Bulls and 32 against these Lakers already this season.

In the Nov. 11 game against LA, the Nuggets were three-point underdogs at home and came away with a 118-112 win thanks to 'Melo and the offense. Denver is now 4-0-1 ATS and 4-1 SU over the course of the last five games in this series, and for whatever reason, it just seems to have the Lakers' number

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