Announcement

**Udog** · 01-19-2011, 12:44 PM

NFL Opening Line Report: Conference Championships

The NFL wagering world is wide open now that the two top seeds are out of the picture.

After sneaking into the playoffs in Week 17, the Green Bay Packers are now set as the Super Bowl favorites, pegged at around +140 at most books.

The Pittsburgh Steelers aren’t far behind at +200 after their impressive second-half comeback over the Baltimore Ravens, while their opponent this weekend, the New York Jets, check in at +300. Lovie Smith and his Chicago Bears are the longshot on the board at +500.

If you’re looking for some fat underdogs to play on the moneyline after cashing in last weekend, you’re out of luck. The books are bracing for two tight games with both lines hovering around a field goal and are wary of moving off that key number, meaning we likely won’t see much line movement throughout the week.

Meanwhile, the books couldn’t be happier about these two matchups. All four remaining clubs are public darlings, so keeping their action balanced shouldn’t be much of a problem, unlike last weekend.

“These two matchups involving these teams in particular has the potential to create a record handle wagered legally in Nevada for championship weekend,” says Chuck Esposito, Race and Sports Executive at the Venetian Resort and Casino.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+3, 44)

After two tough battles between these two teams, the books don’t expect anything different this time around. They do, however, expect a lot of action on the Packers after they dominated the Falcons at the Georgia Dome last week.

The books that have the Packers set at -3 have already bumped up the juice to around -120 at this point, while others have the line at -3.5. This likely won’t change much this week, so you’ll have to shop around for a line that suits you best.

“The Packers have the most momentum on the field and at the betting windows,” says Jay Kornegay, Las Vegas Hilton Sportsbook Director. “The public cannot get enough of the Pack right now and that’s why you see this inflated number.

“I expect most of the tickets on the Packers with the sharp money coming in on the Bears once it maxes out. Where? That is the big question. I would say -3.5 -120 on the Packers.”

As we saw in the first half last weekend in Chicago, weather may also play a major role in this weekend’s game.

“With Aaron Rodgers playing so well, and Jay Culter playing pretty well himself, bettors will be expecting offense,” Greg Sindall, SportsInteraction.com oddsmaker says. “Expect the total to rise as the week progresses.”

New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 38.5)

It’s hard to say which team comes into this matchup with more momentum. New York thoroughly outplayed New England for most of the game before slipping a bit late in the game as the Jets leaned on what amounted to a prevent defense to protect the lead.

Pittsburgh, on the other hand, was terrible in to the opening half against Baltimore, but rebounded with almost a perfect second half.

Many Vegas books opened this line at Pittsburgh -3.5 or even at -4, which was bet down to closer to a field goal quickly. At online shops, there are just about as many -3.5 lines out there now as there are -3s, giving bettors good variety for shopping.

“Coming into this season the Jets were the popular en vogue team amongst bettors and were bet to the preseason Super Bowl favorite throughout sportsbooks in Nevada,” says Esposito. “I also feel there will be a tremendous amount of moneyline play on the Jets.”

But you have to wonder how the tough road to the Conference Championships has impacted both of these teams. The Steelers are coming off a bruising matchup against the Ravens, while the Jets have to head into yet another road game as the underdog.

“I can’t believe that two road games in very tough stadiums won’t have an impact on the Jets,” says Sindall. “Surely they will be worn down a little bit – both physically and mentally. Personally, I think they burned a lot of energy on the Patriots. I think their win against the Pats was very emotional and that could work against them against Pittsburgh.”

**Udog** · 01-19-2011, 12:44 PM

NFL
Dunkel

NY Jets at Pittsburgh
The Jets look to build on their 10-4 ATS record in their last 14 games as an underdog from 3 1/2 to 10 points. New York is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Jets favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+3 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, JANUARY 23

Game 303-304: Green Bay at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 142.509; Chicago 137.517
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 5; 47
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 3 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-3 1/2); Over

Game 305-306: NY Jets at Pittsburgh (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 140.273; Pittsburgh 138.553
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 1 1/2; 35
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 3 1/2; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+3 1/2); Under

**Udog** · 01-19-2011, 12:45 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Sunday, January 23

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GREEN BAY (12 - 6) at CHICAGO (12 - 5) - 1/23/2011, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 22-12 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 49-30 ATS (+16.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 22-12 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 133-99 ATS (+24.1 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 4-2 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 4-2 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
6 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY JETS (13 - 5) at PITTSBURGH (13 - 4) - 1/23/2011, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
NY JETS are 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents this season.
NY JETS are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
NY JETS are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 01-19-2011, 12:45 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Sunday, January 23

NFC Championship Game
GREEN BAY at CHICAGO, 3:00 PM ET
GREEN BAY: 8-2 UNDER in road games
CHICAGO: 6-0 Under vs. Green Bay

AFC Championship Game
NY JETS at PITTSBURGH, 6:30 PM ET
NY JETS: 6-0 ATS off a division win PITTSBURGH: 1-5 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

**Udog** · 01-19-2011, 12:45 PM

NFL

Sunday, January 23

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

3:00 PM
GREEN BAY vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing Chicago
Green Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against Green Bay
Chicago is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay

6:30 PM
NY JETS vs. PITTSBURGH
NY Jets are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
NY Jets are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against NY Jets

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 01-20-2011, 11:24 AM

NFL

Conference Championships

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Championship Weekend
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+3.5)

Why Packers cover: The strangeness continues this playoff season, as once again the road team ends up being favored. But with the way Green Bay is playing it is hard to argue with the spread. Chicago had the easiest matchup of the remaining teams this postseason when it hosted Seattle last week, whereas the Packers are coming off two convincing road victories against teams that could have easily ended up in the Super Bowl. Aaron Rodgers is playing at a ridiculous level and may be the MVP of the playoffs so far. Through two games he has completed 78 percent of his passes while accounting for seven touchdowns (six passing, one rushing). Add to that a blitzing defense that is facing a quarterback that tends to throw interceptions and you have a recipe for Green Bay's first Super Bowl appearance since 1998. The Packers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings in Chicago.

Why Bears cover: If there is one thing the Bears do well, it is stopping Green Bay's powerful offense from scoring. In their two meetings this season, the Packers averaged a pathetic 13.5 points per game against Chicago, almost 11 points less than their season average. The Bears defense held Green Bay to an average of 61.5 yards rushing in those games, which puts a lot of pressure on Rodgers to carry the offensive load. Devin Hester is a game changer on special teams and when teams try to account for his presence as a kick returner, they often give up valuable field position just trying to stay away from him.

Total (43.5): Under is 6-0 in the last six meetings and 5-1 in the last six meetings in Chicago.

New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)

Why Jets cover: No team likes being the center of attention like the Jets. After waltzing into Foxboro and whipping the Patriots last week as 9.5-point dogs, they travel to face a Steelers team that they upset on the road in Week 15 as 3.5-point pups. Mark Sanchez has been a playoff road warrior boasting a 4-1 record away from home and has been enjoying some strong protection from his offensive line this postseason. LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene have combined for 271 yards rushing and four touchdowns in the Jets' two playoff games while averaging 4.4 yards per carry. New York is 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with the Steelers.

Why Steelers cover: They didn't have much problem dispatching their divisional last week and now get to face essentially a mirror-image of the Baltimore Ravens in the New York Jets. The similarities between the Jets and the Ravens must have the Steelers drooling. Both teams focus primarily on ball control via the run game while keeping opposing offenses honest with their suffocating defenses. Sanchez can be as brilliant or as inconsistent as Joe Flacco and if he plays anything like Flacco did last week (125 yards, 1 TD, 1 interception), the Steelers could take this game over in a hurry. Pittsburgh might not have to alter its game plan even though its opponent is different. Ben Roethlisberger was cool and efficient against Baltimore, competing 60 percent of his passes with two touchdowns and no picks and could be the difference maker if the game comes down to the wire.

Total (38.5): Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 01-21-2011, 10:32 AM

NFL

Sunday, January 23

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL total bias: Conference Championships over/under picks
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

It’s been a little quiet this week – almost too quiet.

After all the smack talk leading up to last week’s Divisional Round, you could see this calm before the storm coming. Rex Ryan already had his time on the soapbox. Mike Tomlin’s always content to scowl his way through midweek media engagements. The Bears and Packers have hated each other for so long that there’s nothing left to say.

So, instead of discussing bulletin board quotes, NFL talking heads have resorted to spouting off about one running theme that will actually make a difference on the field – defense.

In a season dominated by offense and overs, the old adage of defense wins championships couldn’t ring any clearer this week. The league’s most marquee offensive players are now watching from the comforts of their couches while hard-nose, smash-mouth football takes center stage to decide which two teams will battle it out for the Lombardi Trophy.

The four remaining teams all rank among the NFL’s top six in scoring defense and top nine in total defense, while the New York Jets, at 12-4, are the only remaining squad to have played over the total more times than they have played under.

Compelling stats, but will defense reign supreme this weekend?

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+3.5, 43.5)

Throw that Week 17 meeting out the window, this is the game the Bears were waiting for.

Chicago’s vanilla defense in the last week of the regular season held Green Bay to 10 points, which is really saying something considering the way Aaron Rogers has ripped defenses apart lately. That’s not to say the Bears didn’t give it a good go to keep the Packers out of the playoffs, but if you think they showed their full hand in that one, you’re crazy.

The Bears’ win over Seattle last week was less impressive than Green Bay’s victory at Atlanta. The Bears took advantage of a serious mismatch with Seattle’s offensive line and Jay Cutler had no trouble picking apart that suspect secondary. Meanwhile, Green Bay just did everything right against a tough Falcons club.

It’s hard to ignore the way the Bears have been pounding the over lately. Chicago has topped the total in six of their last seven games, with the only under during that stretch coming in that Week 17 loss to Green Bay. Meanwhile, the Packers look like they might be the most dangerous offensive team left in the dance.

But Bears-Packers games are a totally different animal. The two clubs are so familiar with each other that we aren’t going to see a lot of surprises. This will be a grind-it-out matchup where every yard might as well be a mile – especially if the Chicago weather comes into play again.

I thought this total would come in closer to 40 points and with the last six meetings between the two clubs playing under the number, I don’t see that trend changing this week.

Pick: Under

New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5, 38.5)

As good as the Jets looked last week, I have to admit I’m not sold on them yet. Their defense deserves a ton of credit for ousting the Pats (even if Brady was playing on a busted wheel), but I don’t see how their offense gets it done against Pittsburgh.

Many left the Steelers for dead after their terrible first half against the Ravens only to see the entire team come together with one of the better halves you’re going to see in football. And if you think the Jets are going to be able to get by with another mediocre rushing effort in this one, you’ve got another thing coming.

I don’t think Mark Sanchez is up to stringing together consistent long drives without making crucial errors against this attacking defense. And that’s exactly what it’s going to take because Pittsburgh isn’t going to give up a ton of big plays. You have to worry about the Jets offense if Pittsburgh gets out to an early lead too. The Steelers can burn clock as good as any team in the business.

Can’t see this on turning into any sort of shootout either.

Pick: Under

Last week’s record: 2-2
Season record to date: 30-29

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 01-22-2011, 10:44 AM

NFL
Write-Up

Sunday, January 23

Bears/Packers split season series, with Chicago scoring only one offensive TD in two games (Hester ran punt back for TD in Week 3 meeting). Same officials are doing this game who called 18 penalties for 152 yards on Pack in the Week 3 game, a 20-17 Chicago win. Home side won five of last six NFC title games, with two of last three going to OT. Bears scored one TD, three FGs in six red zone trips vs Pack- they'll have to do better here. Pack won 10-3 in Week 17 rematch (game was meaningless for Bears). Strangely, Bears have been dog in nine of their 17 games, going 7-2 vs spread.

Jets (+4) ran opening kick back for TD, won 22-17 at Pittsburgh five weeks ago, Steelers' only loss in their last eight games; Pitt outgained them by 102 yards but averaged just 4.9 yards per attempt thru air, despite converting 11-17 on 3rd down. This is fifth road game in last six weeks for Jets, who are also dogs for sixth week in row, winning four of last five. Since '94, Steelers are 2-4 when they've played AFC title game at home. Home team won last four AFC title games by average score of 28-19. Polamalu didn't play in first meeting; he makes huge different for Pitt defense.

**Udog** · 01-22-2011, 07:09 PM

NFL

Sunday, January 23

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL playoffs weather report: Cold temps and terrible turf
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

With the totals for both NFL Championship games on the move, a lot of bettors are keeping a close eye on the skies Sunday. Here’s what to expect from Mother Nature this weekend:

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+3.5, 43)

The wind at Soldier Field is expected to lay low for Sunday’s NFC Championship Game – for now. The forecast is calling for game-time temperatures in the high teens with winds blowing southeast from corner to corner at speeds of 6 mph. Those breezes will pick up later in the afternoon, getting up around 15 mph and making it feel like 10 degrees on the field.

There is no precipitation in the forecast Sunday, which is good for fans of the over 43 points. The turf at Soldier Field has been blasted by both sides for is terrible traction and even a sprinkle of rain would make for slick running, slowing down both offenses.

"Some people say it's a sorry field," Bears cornerback Charles Tillman told reporters of the condition of the Soldier Field grass. "They say what they want, but at the end of the day, you've got to play. That's what we do. We accept it. We just play."

New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5, 38.5)

Early-morning snow showers will give way before the Jets and Steelers mix it up at Heinz Field. Skies over Pittsburgh will be cloudy with game-time temperatures falling as low as 5 degrees, with winds blowing west-southwest from corner to corner at 5 mph.

The Heinz Field surface is notoriously bad during this time of the season. With morning snow showers soaking the grass and mud, New York kicker Nick Folk, who booted the game-winning field goal against Indianapolis in the Wildcard Round, is preparing to try out numerous pairs of cleats before the game.

"Everything about kicking at Heinz Field makes it tough," Folk told the media. "The fans, the weather can turn nasty at any time, the field can be pretty bad, too."

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 01-23-2011, 08:03 AM

NFL

Sunday, January 23

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFC Championship Game: What bettors need to know
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+3.5, 43)

THE STORY: The NFL’s longest-running rivalry convenes for the 182nd time with a berth to the Super Bowl on the line. The Green Bay Packers and host Chicago Bears are two of the league’s most storied franchises, having won a combined 21 NFL titles (12 by the Packers). Amazingly, though, they have met just once in the postseason, way back in 1941.

Green Bay and Chicago split a couple of tight games this season, each winning on its home field. The Bears edged the Packers for the NFC North title and secured a first-round bye in the playoffs, putting Green Bay in the position of trying to become the fourth team in league history to win three straight road games to advance to the Super Bowl.

TV: Sunday, 3 p.m. ET, FOX

OPENING LINE: Green Bay (-3), O/U 43.5

The spread has moved from a field goal to 3.5 as of Saturday afternoon. The total has started to fall, coming down to 43 points.

WEATHER: Cloudy with a chance of snow flurries with high temperatures in the low-20s. Winds at Soldier Field are expected to be light, blowing at 6 mph.

ABOUT THE BEARS (12-5, 10-6-1 ATS): The Bears were among the league’s biggest surprises, riding a stingy defense and slowly maturing offense en route to a division title. They never scored more than 27 points through their first 10 games, but have eclipsed the 35-point barrier three times in their last four contests. That included last weekend’s 35-24 drubbing of Seattle in the divisional round, a game in which Chicago bolted to a 28-0 lead.

Defensive end Julius Peppers and LB Brian Urlacher spark a physical defense that allowed the fourth-fewest points in the league and permitted the second-fewest rushing yards per game. Quarterback Jay Cutler has been criticized for some questionable decision-making, but he has a passer rating above 104.0 in five of his last seven games and, last week, became the first QB since Hall of Famer Otto Graham to have two passing and two rushing TDs in a playoff game. Running back Matt Forte rushed for over 1,000 yards and also had 51 catches while Devin Hester is the most dangerous return man in the game. He brought back a punt for a TD in Chicago’s win over Green Bay in Week 3.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (12-6, 11-7 ATS): Green Bay, which was on the outside of the playoff picture after back-to-back losses in Weeks 14 and 15, has hit its stride in the postseason behind a red-hot Aaron Rodgers. The Packers beat Michael Vick and Philadelphia (21-16) in the Wildcard Round before thoroughly dismantling No. 1 seeded Atlanta 48-21 last weekend in a game that was every bit as close as the score indicates.

Rodgers was magnificent, throwing for 366 yards and three TDs on 31-of-36 passing. He also ran for a TD as Green Bay scored 35 unanswered points and never punted in the contest. Rodgers has thrown an NFL-record 10 TD passes in his first three postseason games, and enters Sunday’s game with 22 TDs and two interceptions in his last nine overall. Rookie James Starks has made his first two starts in the postseason, giving the Packers a running game it lacked in the earlier meetings with the Bears. Not to be overlooked is Green Bay’s defense, which has allowed the second-fewest points in the NFL. CB Charles Woodson is a perennial Pro Bowler, but Tramon Williams has upstaged him with three interceptions in the two playoff wins.

PLAYERS TO WATCH: Peppers and the Bears must apply pressure to slow down Rodgers, who has been on an incredible roll but did struggle in the regular-season finale against Chicago. Offensively, Cutler must remain patient and not overly rely on his cannon arm to force the ball into a tight spot, especially against Green Bay’s superb cornerback tandem.

The Packers rushed for a total of 123 yards in the two meetings with the Bears – and 41 of that came from Rodgers. Starks has piled up 123 and 66 yards in the two playoff wins and needs to come through with another solid game to open the passing lanes for Rodgers. LB Clay Matthews had 13.5 sacks in the regular season and added three more in the postseason.

RECENT HISTORY: Chicago leads the overall series 92-83-6, but Green Bay has won four of the last six. The Bears won 20-17 on a last-second field goal by Robbie Gould in Week 3, a game in which the Packers committed an NFL-record 18 penalties. Green Bay got revenge with a 10-3 win in Week 17, although the Bears had nothing to play for after having locked up the No. 2 seed.

KEY INJURIES: Green Bay – DE Cullen Jenkins (calf), RB John Kuhn (shoulder), LB Clay Matthews (shin), DE Ryan Pickett (ankle), C Jason Spitz (calf), CB Charles Woodson (toe). Chicago – S Chris Harris (hip), LB Pisa Tinoisamoa (knee).

LAST WORD: No rivalry is steeped in as much tradition as that of the Bears and Packers. Chicago won six NFL titles under legendary coach George Halas, and the winner of Sunday’s matchup gets to hoist the Halas Trophy. A bigger prize awaits the winner of the Super Bowl – the Lombardi Trophy, named for legendary Packers coach Vince Lombardi, who won five NFL titles in seven seasons.

TRENDS:

- Under is 6-0 in the last six meetings.
- Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Chicago.
- Packers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings in Chicago.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 01-23-2011, 08:05 AM

NFL

Sunday, January 23

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFC Championship Game: What bettors need to know
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5, 38.5)

THE STORY: The New York Jets bring their School of “Hard Knocks” tour to Pittsburgh, looking to beat the Steelers and take the final step in a season they have designated as Super Bowl or bust. To get there, New York will have to go through Pittsburgh – a feat it already accomplished this season with a 22-17 victory in Week 15 at Heinz Field.

The Jets will also be trying to follow the path carved in 2005 by the Steelers, who were the only No. 6 seed to win the Super Bowl. Pittsburgh will be hosting a league-record 15th conference championship game, having gone 7-7 in its previous 14 appearances. The Steelers also have won an NFL-high six Super Bowls, including two in the past five seasons.

TV: 6:30 p.m. ET, CBS

OPENING LINE: Steelers -4, O/U 38

The spread has since dropped from -4 to 3.5 with some field-goal lines out there. The total has been on the rise since post, moving to 38.5 and 39 as of Saturday afternoon.

WEATHER: Chance of morning snow showers with a high temperature of 18 degrees.

ABOUT THE STEELERS (13-4, 11-6 ATS): Since the loss to the Jets in Week 15, the Steelers have ratcheted up their defense, allowing 12 points in their final two regular-season wins and putting on a clinic in the second half of last week’s 31-24 playoff win over archrival Baltimore. Trailing 21-7 at the half following a string of uncharacteristic turnovers, Pittsburgh limited the Ravens to 28 yards of offense in the second half, including minus-4 yards in the third quarter. The Steelers collected five sacks, including three by James Harrison, in holding Baltimore to 126 yards of offense for the game.

Ben Roethlisberger once again came up big in the clutch, completing a 58-yard pass on third-and-19 to set up the game-winning touchdown by Rashard Mendenhall with 93 seconds to play. Mendenhall ran for 100 yards in the first meeting against the Jets, given the Steelers a legit ground game that neither Indianapolis nor New England – New York’s two playoff victims – possessed. Tight end Heath Miller and big-play safety Troy Polamalu also will be in the lineup after missing the earlier meeting.

ABOUT THE JETS (13-5, 11-7 ATS): Coach Rex Ryan has talked the talk and his team has walked the walk in eliminating all-world quarterbacks Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in back-to-back postseason wins. New York used its bruising ground game to outlast the Colts (17-16) and featured a nice blend of passing by second-year quarterback Mark Sanchez and the running of Shonn Green and LaDainian Tomlinson to cut down the Patriots (28-21). Sanchez may have played his finest game as a Jet, throwing for three TDs and playing mistake-free football against New England.

New York’s defense, and cornerback Darrelle Revis in particular, took out Reggie Wayne – Manning’s favorite weapon – at Indianapolis, and last week collected five sacks and had Brady looking befuddled for much of the game. Wide receivers Braylon Edwards and ex-Steeler Santonio Holmes each had big touchdown grabs against New England and could be crucial against a Pittsburgh defense that allowed the fewest points and rushing yards this season. The Jets are hoping to get back Brad Smith, who ran the opening kickoff back 97 yards for a TD in the first meeting with the Steelers.

KEY PLAYERS: While the Jets were impressive in shutting down the Colts and Patriots, they were dealing with finesse offenses in both cases. Mendenhall is a workhorse back and the Steelers are willing to feed him the ball – he got 20 carries, albeit with minimal success, against Baltimore, one of the league’s top run defenses.

The Jets don’t figure to have much success on the ground against the Steelers, meaning Edwards and Holmes will get their chances against a vulnerable Pittsburgh secondary. Holmes, a Super Bowl MVP with the Steelers, had a spectacular touchdown catch that pretty much sealed the outcome against New England.

RECENT HISTORY: Prior to the victory in Week 15, the Jets had been 0-7 all-time in Pittsburgh.

KEY INJURIES: Jets: CB Drew Coleman (knee), S James Ihedigbo (knee, ankle), CB Darrelle Revis (hamstring), WR Brad Smith (groin), LB Jason Taylor (concussion). Steelers: DE Aaron Smith (triceps), S Will Allen (knee), WR Arnaz Battle (illness), CB Bryant McFadden (abdomen), S Troy Polamalu (achilles).

LAST WORD: With a victory Sunday, Sanchez will earn his fifth postseason road victory as a starting quarterback, which would be the most in NFL history.

TRENDS:

- Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
- Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
- Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last five playoff road games.
- Steelers are 5-0 ATS in their last five playoff home games.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 01-23-2011, 08:09 AM

NFL

Sunday, January 23

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tips and Trends
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears [FOX | 3:00 PM ET]

PACKERS: (-3.5, O/U 44) Green Bay has been so impressive during the playoffs that they are the odds on favorite to win the Super Bowl. Pretty amazing considering the Packers have had to play each of their playoff games on the road. The Packers are 12-6 SU and 11-7 ATS overall this season. Green Bay is 5-5 SU and 6-4 ATS on the road this year. The Packers are 4-1 ATS as the listed underdog this season, including 2-0 SU and ATS during the playoffs. QB Aaron Rodgers has been so amazing this season, as he's joined the status of elite QB in the NFL. Rodgers directs an offense that just put up 48 PTS against the Falcons last week. Rodgers threw for more than 3,900 YDS and 28 TD's during the regular season. WR Greg Jennings had 1,265 receiving YDS and 12 TD's this year for Green Bay. The Packers defense is what has transformed this team into a Super Bowl contender this year. Green Bay has been stellar all season defensively, and have allowed a total of 37 PTS to Atlanta and Philadelphia combined during the playoffs. The Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played on grass. The Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. Green Bay is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against the NFC. The Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. The Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.

Packers are 1-5 ATS last 6 playoff games as the listed favorite.
Under is 5-0 last 5 games as a road favorite.

Key Injuries - S Atari Bigby (groin) is questionable.

Projected Score: 20 (UNDER-Total of the Day)

BEARS: Chicago has already been the listed underdog twice to Green Bay this year, so they aren't even batting an eye today. The Bears split the season series with the Packers this year, but did go 2-0 ATS. Chicago is 12-5 SU and 10-6-1 ATS overall this season. The Bears are 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS at home this year. The Bears are 6-2 ATS as the listed underdog, including 2-1 ATS as the listed home underdog. QB Jay Cutler has been outstanding at leading this Bears offense. Cutler threw for 3,274 YDS and 23 TD's this season, against 16 INT's. Chicago averaged 20.9 PPG during the regular season, and are coming off a 35 point outburst against Seattle last week. WR Johnny Knox had 960 receiving YDS and 5 TD's this season for the Bears. Defensively, the Bears allowed just 17.9 PPG this year, 4th fewest in the NFL. This Bears defense only allowed 90 YPG rushing this season, the 2nd fewest in the league. The Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games played in January. Chicago is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. The Bears are 6-1 ATS against a team with a winning record. Chicago is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played on grass. The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against the NFC North. Chicago is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win.

Bears are 4-1 ATS last 5 games as the listed underdog.
Over is 5-1 last 6 playoff home games.

Key Injuries - DB Chris Harris (hip) is questionable.

Projected Score: 17

New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers [CBS | 6:30 PM ET]

JETS: New York has been a resilient football team all season long, and it's aiding them tremendously this postseason. Despite nonstop off the field distractions all season long, the Jets are 1 victory away from a Super Bowl berth. New York has beaten both Indianapolis and New England on the road during the playoffs. The Jets are 13-5 SU and 11-7 ATS overall this season. New York has played their best football away from home this year, where they are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS. The Jets are 5-2 both SU and ATS this season as the listed underdog. QB Mark Sanchez is going to have to play the game of his life in order for the Jets to advance to the Super Bowl. Considering how it's nearly impossible to run on the Steelers, the passing game will be vital tonight. Sanchez threw for nearly 3,300 YDS and 17 TD's this year. WR Braylon Edwards had more than 900 receiving YDS this season, including 7 TD's. WR Santonio Holmes will get a chance to beat the team that he played a vital role for the last time they went on a Super Bowl run. Defensively, New York is playing as ss well as they have all season in slowing down both Peyton Manning and Tom Brady led defenses. The Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. New York is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against the AFC. The Jets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games played on grass. New York is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played in January. The Jets are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games. The Jets are 9-4 ATS against a team with a winning record.

Jets are 14-6 ATS last 20 games as the listed road underdog.
Over is 10-1 last 11 road games.

Key Injuries - WR Brad Smith (groin) is questionable.

Projected Score: 13

STEELERS: (-3.5, O/U 38.5) Pittsburgh is used to playing in big games in the month of January. The Steelers are hosting the AFC Championship game tonight against a team that has already won in Pittsburgh this year. Revenge will certainly be on the minds of Steelers faithful tonight. Pittsburgh is 13-4 SU and 11-6 ATS overall this season. The Steelers are 6-3 both SU and ATS this season at home, thanks to the same exact result both SU and ATS at home this year. The Steelers are 4-5 ATS this season as a favorite up to a TD this season. QB Ben Roethlisberger will be counted on to lead the Steelers to victory tonight. Roethlisberger has thrown for 3,200 YDS and 17 TD's this season. RB Rashard Mendenhall rushed for 1,273 YDS and 13 TD's this year for the Steelers. Despite scoring 31 PTS last week against the Ravens, the Steelers only had 263 total YDS last week. In order to advance to the Super Bowl, the Steelers will have to be better than that tonight. Defensively, the Steelers are as good as ever. Pittsburgh allowed an NFL low 14.5 PPG this season, including an NFL low 62.8 YPG rushing. The Steelers are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games played in January. Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as the listed favorite. The Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played on grass. Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against the AFC.

Steelers are 5-0 ATS last 5 playoff home games.
Over is 10-1 last 11 playoff home games.

Key Injuries - LB James Harrison (shoulder) is probable.

Projected Score: 23 (SIDE of the Day)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Conference Championships (1/23)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Conference Championships (1/23)

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment