The Bum's Wednesday's Best Bets + News and Notes !

[StarDust Bum]

NCAA Odds: Iowa Hawkeyes at Ohio State

Ohio State is a 20-point favorite when the Iowa Hawkeyes come to Columbus.
It's a mismatch on paper, as the NCAA odds reflect. Still, it's an intriguing mismatch when the newly-anointed No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes host the Iowa Hawkeyes at Value City Arena on Wednesday (3:30 p.m. PT).

Ohio State grabbed the top slot in both polls on Monday after Duke dropped its first game last week to Florida State in Tallahassee. The Buckeyes were the No. 1 choice on 49 of 65 AP ballots and 28 of the 31 coaches in the ESPN/USA Today rankings. Thad Matta's men remain one of just three unbeatens entering midweek action, joining Kansas and San Diego State in the ever-shrinking fraternity.

The Buckeyes' 18-0 record straight up is tempered by a 7-8 mark against the spread.

That spread record has taken a beating since the new year began. Laden with double-digit spreads in all four January contests, Ohio State has failed to cover any of them in getting past four conference foes by a combined 13 points. The latest was a 69-66 win at home last Saturday over what is proving to be a very scrappy and upset-minded Penn State.

The Buckeyes closed as 17½-point favorites against the Nittany Lions; instead of an easy victory, Ohio State needed a late three-pointer from Jared Sullinger to secure the final margin of victory.

Penn State led by as much as five in the first half and had the game knotted with 44 ticks left. Leading scorer Talor Battle's off day – 5-of-17 from field, 1-of-10 from long range – proved PSU's shortfall in the attempt to beat a third consecutive ranked team.

Ohio State's four-game spread skid started in Iowa City against these Hawkeyes on Jan. 4. Oddsmakers posted 12½-point chalk on OSU who needed a big second half to pull off the 73-68 win. Iowa held a six-point halftime lead in its bid for the shocker, with freshman forward Melsahn Basabe pacing Fran McCaffery's squad with a double-double, 22 points and 13 boards.

Once again it was Sullinger who helped the Buckeyes battle back. The beefy frosh tallied 14 of his game-high 24 points in the second half, 11 of them early in the final 20 minutes to make the difference. The team's leading scorer also added 12 rebounds, one of eight double-doubles on his season ledger.

While Ohio State is off to a 5-0 Big Ten start, Iowa (7-10 straight up, 7-9 ATS) is the polar opposite at 0-5. The effort against the Buckeyes to open January was the closest conference final score so far and one of two covers against three defeats at the window. The Hawkeyes are coming off their other cash job, a 69-59 loss at Minnesota on Sunday with the Golden Gophers 11½-point favorites.

The win two weeks ago was Ohio State's fifth straight in the series, and sixth consecutive winning ticket for Hawkeyes backers. The largest margin of victory in the string is 10 points, that coming last February at home in a 68-58 Buckeyes win as 20-point favorites. Iowa's last straight-up win was at home Groundhog Day 2008 when the Hawkeyes took OSU down by a 53-48 count.

Matta has had a little time to get his kids' feet back on the ground after the excitement of moving up to No. 1. But cover the 20-point spread that opened at Bookmaker.com? Hmm, I'm not too sure. Add the recent series trends that favor a wager on Iowa to the fact Ohio State has two games against ranked conference foes on deck, and it's going to be impossible for even Matta himself to remain totally focused on this game if he has a big cushion at some point.

The Buckeyes will travel to Champaign to meet No. 23 Illinois this Saturday, followed by a matchup back home against No. 14 Purdue next Tuesday (Jan. 25).

Iowa will be back on its home court Sunday when the Hawkeyes host Indiana. They follow that next week with road outings at Penn State and Michigan.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Odds: Freefalling Mavericks meet Lakers


The freefalling Dallas Mavericks look to end a hideous six-game slide, both straight-up and against the spread, when they host the Los Angeles Lakers on Wednesday night.

Dallas (26-14 SU, 20-18-2 ATS) started out the year in fine fashion (24-5 SU) before being devastated by injuries. Power forward Dirk Nowitzki (knee) got hurt a couple of days after Christmas and missed nine games. Small forward Caron Butler (15 PPG) torn his ACL on New Year’s Day and is out for the season.

Nowitzki returned two games ago after watching the Mavericks go just 2-7 SU and ATS without him. They scored eight PPG less without their best player. The results haven’t been pretty since his return, losses and failures to ‘cover’ at Memphis (89-70) and Detroit (103-89).

Coach Rick Carlisle hopes his team has hit bottom and there was a good sign Monday against Detroit with Nowitzki scoring 32 points. The NBA’s ninth-leading scorer (23.8 PPG) was very rusty against Memphis, scoring just seven points before being ejected in the third quarter.

Carlisle needs to get his rotations set again. Dallas used to have an explosive bench anchored by Shawn Marion and Jason Terry. However, Marion has been forced into the first five with Butler’s injury and Terry is starting since last game with DeShawn Stevenson struggling. That leaves very little scoring from the second unit.

Aggressive owner Mark Cuban has a decision to make as Dallas still looks for its first NBA title. If Cuban thinks his team can contend, he may be willing to absorb a long-term contract like Philadelphia’s Andre Iguodala or Charlotte’s Stephen Jackson. If not, Dallas can stand pat and try to squeeze out as many wins as possible.

The Lakers (31-12 SU, 19-23-1 ATS) have rebounded nicely from a three-game losing streak in late December, going 10-2 SU (5-6-1 ATS) in their last 12 games.

L.A.’s last game was Monday at home against Oklahoma City, a 101-94 win as 4 ½-pont favorites. It was a fortunate ‘cover’ as the Thunder failed to score in the final two minutes after trailing 98-94. The Lakers were 0-3 ATS in their previous three games.

The 195 combined points scored went ‘under’ the 202 ½-point total. The ‘under’ is 11-4 in the Lakers’ last 15 games, allowing just 92.7 PPG. That’s far below the season average of 96.1 PPG allowed.

The defensive emergence is attributable to an easier schedule overall, but also the return of center Andrew Bynum. Having the seven-foot Bynum in the lineup allows Pau Gasol to shift to power forward and Lamar Odom to his sixth-man role. The Lakers have one of the tallest frontcourts in the league with all three healthy.

Odom’s versatility also allows him to guard Nowitzki, who is too fast for Gasol on the perimeter. This is the first meeting between the teams this year, but Nowitzki averaged 26 PPG in the four games last year. The teams split 2-2 SU and ATS, with each winning and ‘covering’ once on the other’s home court.

The road team is 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings overall between the teams.

Dallas starting center Tyson Chandler missed the last two games (illness), but should play Wednesday. That’s important even with Brendan Haywood a good backup. Los Angeles reserve forward Matt Barnes is out (knee) for several more weeks, which does weaken its bench some.

ESPN will have the tip-off from American Airlines Center at 6 p.m. (PT).

[StarDust Bum]

NCAA Odds: Duke seeks revenge at NC State

Fourth-ranked Duke (16-1 straight up, 8-8 against the spread) remains in a three-way tie atop the Atlantic Coast Conference. The defending national champion Blue Devils were the top-ranked team in the country before suffering their lone setback last week against Florida State.

North Carolina State (11-6 SU, 7-6 ATS) remains in the pack with a 1-2 conference record, tied for seventh with Miami, Maryland, Virginia and Georgia Tech. The Wolfpack have seen the ‘under’ go 8-3 their last 11 home endeavors.

Duke rebounded from its lone setback of the season to upend Virginia as 21 ½-point home ‘chalk,’ 76-60. The combined 136 points eclipsed the 134-point closing total, ending a string of back-to-back ‘under’ outings.

The Blue Devils actually trailed by 10 points late in the first half before outscoring the Cavaliers over the last 16 minutes, 43-18. Duke finished the contest with advantages in rebounding (40-25) and assists (13-8), while shooting 47 percent (27-of-58) from the field and 25 percent (5-of-20) from behind the arc.

Nolan Smith led all scorers with 29 points and seven rebounds, while Andre Dawkins added 14 and Kyle Singler provided 13. Forward Mason Plumlee only had five points, but he did grab 16 rebounds.

NC State is currently mired in a two-game SU and ATS losing streak after Sunday’s setback to Florida State as a 7 ½-point road underdog, 84-71. The combined 155 points soared ‘over’ the 135 ½-point closing total, helping the ‘over’ improve to 3-1 the previous four outings.

The Wolfpack managed just 19 points at halftime, and finished the game by shooting 39 percent (24-of-62) from the field and 40 percent (6-of-15) from 3-point land. NC State won the rebounding battle, 34-29, but the defense allowed the Seminoles to shoot a blistering 55 percent (30-of-55) from the field.

Forward Tracy Smith paced the Wolfpack offense with 19 points on 8-of-11 shooting, while guard Ryan Harrow added 17. Forward C.J. Leslie had 10 and nine rebounds in the loss, while forward Scott Wood netted 10.

NC State won the lone encounter with Duke last season as an 11 ½-point home underdog, 88-74. The combined 162 points sailed well past the NCAA odds, helping the ‘over’ improve to 9-1 the previous 10 meetings. The Wolfpack are 4-1 ATS the last five games versus the Blue Devils.

Duke point guard Kyrie Irving remains ‘out’ indefinitely due to a toe injury. The Blue Devils follow this matchup with a road game against Wake Forest. Duke has seen the ‘under’ go 35-16 its previous 51 conference games.

NC State hosts Miami after this game before embarking on a two-game ACC road trip against Clemson and North Carolina. The Wolfpack have seen the ‘under’ go 10-3 their past 13 conference clashes.

ESPN will provide coverage of Wednesday’s ACC contest beginning at 4:00 p.m. PT from Raleigh’s RBC Center in Raleigh.

[StarDust Bum]

Texas A&M puts streak on line at Texas

Quick, name the only team besides Pittsburgh to win an NCAA Tournament game during each of the past five seasons.

Go to the head of the class if you managed to come up with Texas A&M.

The Aggies are tough again this season winning 16 of their 17 games and tied for first in the Big 12 Conference at 3-0. The 11th-ranked Aggies take on 10th-ranked Texas in Austin Wednesday night at 6 PT with ESPN2 televising.

Texas is determined to do better than last season when it lost 10 of its final 17 games, including a first-round NCAA Tournament game to Wake Forest. The Longhorns are 14-3, 2-0 in the Big 12. They have covered in nine of their 12 ‘lined’ contests, including five of the past six.

The Longhorns’ record is impressive considering they’ve played the toughest non-conference schedule of any Big 12 team having faced Illinois, Pittsburgh, USC, North Carolina, Michigan State and Connecticut.

Texas A&M leads the conference in rebounding margin, while the Longhorns are No. 1 in overall rebounds.

The Aggies pride themselves on their tenacious defense. They led the Big 12 in scoring defense last season holding foes to 65.8 points per game. This season the Aggies are even better.

Texas A&M is allowing only 57.6 points a game, ninth-best in the nation. The Aggies rank 26th in defensive field goal percentage limiting foes to 38.8 percent shooting from the floor.

Texas is right there defensively yielding 61.4 points a game – 36th-best in the nation – and ranking fifth in defensive field goal percentage. Opponents are hitting only 36.8 percent from the field against the Longhorns.

The ‘under’ has cashed in seven of Texas’ last nine ‘lined’ matchups. The ‘under’ is 6-2-1 in the Aggies’ nine ‘lined’ contests.

Both meetings last season between the two schools went ‘under.’ Texas won the first matchup last year, 72-67, in overtime laying 14 ½ at home. The combined 139 points went ‘under’ the 152 ½-point total.

Texas A&M won the rematch at home, 74-58, as one-point underdogs. The combined 132 points went ‘under’ the 140-point total.

Texas sophomore wing Jordan Hill is showing signs he could be the school’s next NBA lottery selection. Hill has scored in double figures in all but one game this season, scoring at least 16 points during the past seven games.

Hill had 17 points and six rebounds in pacing Texas past Oklahoma, 66-46, this past Saturday. The Longhorns just covered as 19-point favorites.

Texas held the Sooners to 39.2 percent shooting from the field. It was the 11th time the Longhorns have held a foe under 40 percent shooting, including their past four opponents.

The Longhorns shot 45.3 percent from the floor, marking the fifth time in a row they’ve converted 45 percent or better.

Freshman Tristan Thompson has been stepping up for Texas averaging 17 points and eight rebounds during his past six games.

Texas A&M enters this matchup off a 91-89 home win in overtime against No. 13 Missouri. The Aggies were favored by five. The combined 180 points sailed ‘over’ the 140 ½-point total. Khris Middleton led Texas A&M with 28 points.

The Aggies committed a season-low nine turnovers against the Tigers, who entered the matchup leading the Big 12 in forcing turnovers. The Aggies had a 40-35 rebound edge. Texas A&M came into the game with a plus 11.6 rebound margin. The Aggies haven’t been out-rebounded yet this season.

The victory was Texas A&M’s 13th straight. The Aggies are 3-0 in conference for only the second time in their history.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Odds: Boston Celtics host Detroit Pistons

The Detroit Pistons will take a season-high three-game winning streak into Boston on Wednesday night to play a Celtics squad that has also captured its last three outings. Tip off from TD Garden is slated for 4:35 p.m. (PT).

The Pistons extended their streak Monday by dumping a slumping Dallas Mavericks’ team, 103-89. It was the third straight contest where the usually offensively challenged Pistons notched triple-digits. The combined 192 points skipped above the 188 ½-point closing total, allowing the ‘over’ to improve to 22-19 in Detroit’s first 41 outings.

Detroit also covered as 4 ½-point home favorites, which raised the club’s spread record to a nifty 23-18. However, playing on the road has been a different story, both against the spread and regarding the ‘total.’

Though John Kuester’s troops have seen the ‘over’ go 16-4 at home, they have seen the ‘under’ cash at a 15-6 pace on the road. They are also 4-17 SU and 11-10 ATS away from the Palace. The Pistons are getting outscored on the road by an average of 98-90.

Detroit is averaging 96 points per game – which ranks 24th – thanks largely to its 45.3 percent shooting from the field (21st). The Pistons are shooting 73 percent from the charity stripe (26th) and are next-to-last in rebounding by hauling down an average of 38.4 boards per game.

Rodney Stuckey led a balanced scoring attack against the Mavs with 20 points, while Tayshaun Prince added 19. First-round pick Greg Monroe added a career-high 16 points, nine rebounds and four steals.

Three-time all-star Richard Hamilton, rumored to be part of a 16-player trade that has been in the works for more than a week, never got off the bench. It was the fourth straight game that Hamilton has not played.

Starting center Ben Wallace also missed his third straight game with a sprained ankle. The Don Best Sports injury report lists Wallace as “questionable” for Wednesday’s contest.

The Celtics welcomed the return of Kevin Garnett on Monday, and the result was a 109-106 victory against the Orlando Magic as three-point home favorites. Though the win raised Boston’s home ledger to a sizzling 19-3 SU, the club is just 8-12-2 ATS despite outscoring the opposition by an average of eight points per game (101-93).

Garnett returned after missing nine games with an injured leg and came up with a steal in the final seconds to help the Celtics register the win and retain the best record in the Eastern Conference at 31-9. Garnett finished with 19 points and eight rebounds. The Celtics went 6-3 with him out of the lineup.

Ray Allen led the Celtics with 26 points, including 13 in the fourth quarter. Rajon Rondo chipped in with 10 points and 13 assists.

Doc Rivers has his squad allowing just 92.3 points per game, which is the league’s second-best mark. Though the Celtics are just 13th offensively with an average of 99.8 PPG, they rank first in field goal shooting (50.5 percent) and third from beyond the arc (38.9).

Boston and Detroit have split two meetings this season, with both games being played in the Motor City and both leaping ‘over’ the closing total. In fact, the ‘over’ has cashed in the last four series matchups.

The first meeting (Nov. 2) saw the Celtics spank the Pistons as six-point road favorites, 109-86. Detroit got revenge on Dec. 29 with a 104-92 victory as a 6 ½-point home underdog.

Rondo had 17 assists in the Boston victory, but missed the rematch with an injury.

Boston concludes its six-game homestand Friday by hosting the Utah Jazz. Detroit travels to New Jersey for a Friday matchup against the Nets.

[StarDust Bum]

NHL Betting Preview: Toronto at NY Rangers

The Toronto Maple Leafs will look to even the season series with the New York Rangers at two games apiece this Wednesday night when the two teams face off against one another in a 4 p.m. (PT) start at Madison Square Garden in New York.

Toronto started the month of January on a tear with five wins in its first six games but has cooled off with losses in its last two. The Leafs were thumped by Phoenix 5-1 last Thursday as a 130 road underdog and then dropped a 2-1 overtime shootout to Calgary as a 135 home favorite on Saturday.

Toronto’s season continues to fade as it is currently 18-21-5 straight-up (18-26 against the spread) with a total of 41 points. It is in 12th place in the Eastern Conference and 10 points back of the eighth and final playoff spot. The New Year run helped, but the Leafs would still need a minor miracle to make it into the postseason this year.

Right winger Phil Kessel is the leading goal scorer with 19 and Clarke MacArthur leads in total points with 37 but as a team Toronto is tied for 24th in the league in goals-per-game with an average of just 2.52 per game. The Leafs have averaged an amazing 5.4 goals per game in their last five wins, but the scoring drought appears to have returned with a total of two goals in their last two games.

Defensively, they are ranked 20th in goals allowed; giving up an average of 2.93 a game. Jonas Gustavsson and Jean-Sebastien Giguere have basically split their time in goal this season. Gustavsson has started 20 games and has a goals-against-average of 3.13 and a save percentage of .896, while Giguere has started 18 games and has a GGA of 2.69 and an .889 save percentage.

Gustavsson is expected to be in goal for this one, but has only started one game in January after his GGA ballooned to 3.74 in his last 12 starts.

New York continues to remain right in the mix in the East but is coming off a 3-2 loss to Montreal on Saturday as a 105 road underdog and a 3-2 loss to Philadelphia as a 105 home underdog on Sunday. The Rangers are currently 26-18-3 SU and 24-23 ATS. Their 55 total points have them trailing the Flyers by eight points in the Atlantic Division standings and in sixth-place in the East.

Center Brandon Dubinsky is the team’s leading scorer with 17 goals and 21 assists for a total of 38 points. Derek Stepan is second in scoring with 27 points and center Brian Boyle is the second leading goal scorer with 14. New York has had its problems finding the net this season with an average of just 2.78 goals per game and has really struggled recently. It has failed to score more than two goals in eight of its last nine games.

The good news is that the Rangers are ranked sixth in goals allowed; giving up an average of just 2.40 a game. Henrik Lundqvist has been the primary goaltender this season with Martin Biron playing the role of backup. Lundqvist has a goals-against-average of 2.27 and a .927 save percentage. He has given up a total of eight goals in his last five starts and should get the call in this one given that Biron was in net last time out.

Toronto is 10-16 this season as an underdog and the total has stayed ‘under’ in 23 of its 44 games. New York is 10-10 this season as the favorite and the total has stayed ‘under’ in 28 of its 47 games.

Head-to-head, the Rangers have won five of the last seven games including the last two. New York beat the Leafs 2-1 on Oct. 21 as a 140 road underdog and shut them out 2-0 as a 146 road underdog on Oct. 30. The total has stayed ‘under’ in four of the last six meetings.

Stick with New York in this one as a likely home favorite. The Rangers will have Lundqvist back in goal and they have not lost three straight games all season long.

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday, January 19Game Score Status Pick Amount

Utah - 7:00 PM ET Utah -6.5 500
New Jersey - Under 193 500

Philadelphia - 7:00 PM ET Philadelphia +9 500
Orlando - Over 200 500

Phoenix - 7:00 PM ET Phoenix -7.5 500
Cleveland - Under 214.5 500

Detroit - 7:30 PM ET Detroit +11.5 500
Boston - Under 191.5 500

Washington - 8:00 PM ET Washington +6 500
Milwaukee - Under 188.5 500

Memphis - 8:00 PM ET New Orleans -3.5 500
New Orleans - Over 184.5 500

New York - 8:30 PM ET New York +2.5 500
Houston - Over 221 500

Toronto - 8:30 PM ET Toronto +12 500
San Antonio - Over 204.5 500

L.A. Lakers - 9:00 PM ET L.A. Lakers -3 500
Dallas - Under 187.5 500

Oklahoma City - 9:00 PM ET Denver -3.5 500
Denver - Over 219.5 500

Portland - 10:00 PM ET Portland -1 500
Sacramento - Under 196.5 500

Indiana - 10:30 PM ET Golden State -4.5 500
Golden State - Under 213.5 500

Minnesota - 10:30 PM ET L.A. Clippers -7 500
L.A. Clippers - Over 213.5 500


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Wednesday, January 19Game Score Status Pick Amount

Toronto - 7:00 PM ET Toronto +146 500
NY Rangers - Over 5.5 500

Columbus - 7:30 PM ET Columbus +132 500
Florida - Over 5.5 500

Minnesota - 9:30 PM ET Minnesota +146 500
Calgary - Over 5 500


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Wednesday, January 19Game Score Status Pick Amount

Iowa - 6:30 PM ET Iowa +20 500
Ohio St. - Over 137 500

Western Michigan - 7:00 PM ET Toledo +9.5 500
Toledo -

Rhode Island - 7:00 PM ET Rhode Island -3 500
St. Joseph's -

Northeastern - 7:00 PM ET Delaware -4 500
Delaware -

Virginia - 7:00 PM ET Virginia +8.5 500
Boston College -

Duquesne - 7:00 PM ET Duquesne -6 500
La Salle - Over 158 500

Duke - 7:00 PM ET N.C. State +10.5 500
N.C. State - Under 149.5 500

Memphis - 7:00 PM ET Memphis +6 500
Southern Mississippi -

East Carolina - 7:00 PM ET Central Florida -12.5 500
Central Florida -

NC-Wilmington - 7:00 PM ET Hofstra -7.5 500
Hofstra -

Xavier - 7:00 PM ET Xavier -5 500
St. Bonaventure -

James Madison - 7:00 PM ET James Madison +7 500
Old Dominion -

William & Mary - 7:00 PM ET Towson -2.5 500
Towson -

Ball St. - 7:00 PM ET Ball St. -3.5 500
Eastern Michigan -

George Washington - 7:00 PM ET Richmond -14 500
Richmond -

Ohio - 7:00 PM ET Ohio -1.5 500
Bowling Green -

St. John's - 7:00 PM ET Louisville -7 500
Louisville -

Akron - 7:00 PM ET Akron +2 500
Miami (OH) -

Cincinnati - 7:00 PM ET Notre Dame -4.5 500
Notre Dame -

Wake Forest - 7:00 PM ET Georgia Tech -14 500
Georgia Tech -

Tulsa - 7:00 PM ET Tulsa -2.5 500
Houston -

Missouri St. - 7:05 PM ET Missouri St. -4 500
Indiana St. -

Kent St. - 7:30 PM ET Kent St. +4 500
Buffalo -

Saint Louis - 7:30 PM ET Fordham +6 500
Fordham -

Pennsylvania - 7:30 PM ET Temple -18 500
Temple -

Massachusetts - 7:30 PM ET Charlotte -4 500
Charlotte -

Georgia St - 7:30 PM ET VCU -11.5 500
VCU -

Arkansas - 8:00 PM ET Arkansas +3.5 500
South Carolina -

New Mexico - 8:00 PM ET New Mexico -5 500
Utah -

Southern Methodist - 8:00 PM ET Southern Methodist +13 500
UAB -

Marshall - 8:00 PM ET Marshall +10.5 500
West Virginia -

Northern Iowa - 8:05 PM ET Northern Iowa +8 500
Wichita St. -

Bradley - 8:05 PM ET Creighton -9.5 500
Creighton -

Penn St. - 8:30 PM ET Purdue -13 500 ( POD )
Purdue -

Drexel - 9:00 PM ET Drexel +7.5 500
George Mason -

Iowa St. - 9:00 PM ET Iowa St. +4.5 500
Oklahoma St. -

Florida St. - 9:00 PM ET Florida St. +2 500
Miami - Florida -

Mississippi - 9:00 PM ET Vanderbilt -10.5 500
Vanderbilt -

Texas A&M - 9:00 PM ET Texas -6.5 500
Texas -

Air Force - 10:00 PM ET San Diego St. -18 500
San Diego St. -

Long Beach St. - 10:05 PM ET Long Beach St. -6 500
Cal St. Fullerton -

Colorado St. - 10:30 PM ET Colorado St. +12 500
UNLV -

San Diego - 10:30 PM ET San Diego +28 500
St. Mary's -

[StarDust Bum]

Texas looks to halt A&M win streak at 13


TEXAS A&M AGGIES (16-1, 3-0 in Big 12)

at TEXAS LONGHORNS (14-3, 2-0 in Big 12)


Tip-off: Wednesday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Texas -7, Total: 130.5

Texas A&M looks to continue its winning streak on Wednesday night, but it won't be easy as the Aggies visit rival Texas in Austin.

A&M extended its winning streak to 13 straight games, the third-longest in school history and its longest since 1916, with a win over Missouri, 91-89, in overtime on Saturday. Khris Middleton (15.8 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 50.3 FG%, 38.5% three-pointers) scored 28 points, including 11 of his team's 14 points in OT. He hit 9-of-16 from the field and also had seven boards and four assists against the Tigers. Nathan Walkup (10.6 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 38.6% three-pointers) finished with 16 points and David Loubeau (11.5 PPG, 5.2 RPG) had 12 points. The Aggies' lone loss of the season came versus Boston College, 67-65, on Nov. 25 at the Old Spice Classic in Orlando. They are 3-0 against ranked opponents, having defeated Temple (54-51), Washington (63-62) and now Missouri. Texas A&M has outrebounded its opponents by 11.6 RPG this season.

Rebounding has been a strength for Texas this season with a +7.2 RPG margin and 42.3 RPG, which ranks fourth in the nation. The Longhorns defense has been stellar too, limiting their opponents to an average of 61.4 PPG on 36.8% shooting through 17 games. Texas beat Oklahoma on Saturday, 66-46, holding the Sooners to 39.2% shooting, including 1-of-15 from downtown. In its previous game, UT held Texas Tech without a three-pointer (0-for-11). Jordan Hamilton (19.2 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 42.3% three-pointers) has averaged a team-best 19.7 PPG in his past seven games, including 17 points, six boards and four assists versus OU. Hamilton has scored at least 16 points in each of these seven contests. Tristan Thompson (12.8 PPG, 7.8 RPG) added 15 points and eight boards and leads the team in rebounds, blocks (33) and steals (21). In the past six games, Thompson has scored 16.8 points and pulled down 8.5 rebounds, while hitting 60.3% (38-of-63) of his field goals. Gary Johnson (12.0 PPG, 7.3 RPG) chipped in with 14 points versus Oklahoma and has hit double-figures in scoring in 12 of Texas' 17 games.

Wednesday's contest marks the 218th meeting between the Horns and Aggies. Texas owns a 132-85 advantage in the all-time series and is 18-7 against the Aggies with Rick Barnes as its coach, including 11-1 at the Erwin Center. Since the beginning of the 1989-90 season, the Horns have won 37 of the past 46 meetings versus A&M, and they hold a 77-26 advantage in Austin. Texas has won its past eight home games versus the Aggies, but the two teams have split the last 10 meetings overall. Last season, the Aggies defeated the Longhorns, 74-58, in College Station, and Texas escaped in overtime, 72-67, in Austin. The Aggies have won 11 of their past 15 games away from home, but expect the Longhorns to end their winning streak on Wednesday night.

This FoxSheets trend likes Texas to win and cover the spread.

Play Against - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (TEXAS A&M) - good foul drawing team - attempting >=25 free throws/game, good defensive team - shooting pct defense of <=42% on the season. (400-274 since 1997.) (59.3%, +98.6 units. Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

Rockets look to hand Knicks third straight loss


NEW YORK KNICKS (22-18)

at HOUSTON ROCKETS (19-23)


Tip-off: Wednesday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Houston -2.5, Total: 218.5

The Knicks travel to Houston to take on the Rockets in the first of a brutal three-game road trip that includes trips to San Antonio and Oklahoma City.

The Knicks have been the best team in the league ATS this season with a record of 25-14-1 (64%). After starting the season 3-2 ATS on the road, the Knicks have won 13 of their last 16 and are clearly the best NBA road bet at 16-5 ATS (76%). No other NBA team has won 60% of its road games ATS. But New York is coming off two of its worst losses this season having dropped consecutive games to sub-.500 teams at home in defeats to Sacramento and Phoenix. In their 10-point loss to the Kings on Friday, the Knicks shot a season-worst 31.5% FG and their 83 points was their second lowest total of the season. In Monday’s loss to the Suns, they came within two points of allowing their season-high, which they set in their last road game at Utah on January 12 when they surrendered 131 points. Raymond Felton has really struggled in these past two defeats, averaging a mere 6.5 PPG on 5-for-28 shooting, including 1-of-8 from behind the arc. Amar’e Stoudemire scored 41 points against Phoenix and has now scored 20+ points in 25 straight games. The New York star has loved playing the Rockets recently, with 27.6 PPG and 10.4 RPG in the past 10 meetings with Houston.

The Rockets are looking to win their third straight after suffering through a stretch where they lost eight of 10 games. The Rockets are just 9-10-1 ATS (11-9 SU) at home this season. They have covered the spread just once at home since December 17, going 1-6-1 ATS at Toyota Center since then. Houston’s struggles are closely related to its ability to outrebound its opponent, as the Rockets are 7-2 (SU and ATS) when they control the glass, but 2-7 SU (0-7-2 ATS) when they get outrebounded since December 15. Kevin Martin scored 36 points in the Rockets 93-84 win over the Bucks on Monday in which they grabbed a season-high 65 rebounds and committed a season-low five turnovers. Martin has averaged 29.2 PPG on 52.4% FG in his past five games against New York.

The Rockets have won five straight against the Knicks at home and 11 of 12 overall meetings, which includes a 104-96 victory at New York on November 13. Although the Knicks have improved this season, they still are not above suffering through stretches like their current skid where they look like one of the worst teams in the league. Don’t forget this is the same Knicks team that started the season 3-7. New York seems to be distracted by the rumors that Carmelo Anthony is soon headed to the Nets, since this would hurt their plans for the future and cross another superstar off the list that they wasted three seasons getting under the salary cap for. If Anthony does indeed join the Nets and sign a contract extension, you can expect a lot more efforts like the last two from the Knicks. I like Houston minus the points.

FoxSheets says:

HOUSTON is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game this season. The average score was HOUSTON 113.6, OPPONENT 100.0 - (Rating = 1*).

The total is understandably high with the Knicks leading the league with 107.5 PPG and Houston fourth in scoring at 104.9 PPG. This four-star FoxSheets stat thinks the final score will fall Under the total.

Play Under - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (NEW YORK) - after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season. (46-14 since 1996.) (76.7%, +30.6 units. Rating = 4*).

[StarDust Bum]

Hornets host Grizzlies going for 6th straight win


MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (19-22)

at NEW ORLEANS HORNETS (26-16)


Tip-off: Wednesday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: New Orleans -4, Total: 184

New Orleans aims for its sixth straight victory when it hosts Memphis on Wednesday night.

After falling behind by 12 points in the second half, the Hornets won their fifth in a row with a come-from-behind 85-81 win over Toronto on Monday. New Orleans shot only 39.1% for its third-lowest shooting performance of the season, but held the Raptors to 16 points in the final quarter. The Hornets lead the NBA in scoring defense (91.9 PPG), and have limited their opponents to just 88.6 PPG during their five-game winning streak, which marks their longest since an 8-0 start to the season. They're also 15-1 at home when allowing less than 100 points. David West (19.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG) is averaging 26.0 points over his past three contests and had 23 points on 10-of-18 shooting and 10 boards versus Toronto for his seventh double-double. Emeka Okafor, who posts a double-double with 11.2 PPG and 10.3 RPG, had 17 points and a franchise-tying 12 offensive boards against the Raptors. Okafor is averaging 15.5 PPG and 13.8 RPG in his past four games. Chris Paul (16.2 PPG, 9.2 APG), who is playing through an ankle injury, continued his recent struggles by tying a season low with six points and hitting only 1-of-8 from the field against Toronto. But Paul has had some big games against the Grizzlies recently, scoring at least 30 points in three of the past eight meetings with Memphis.

Memphis struggled from the field in its 96-84 loss to Chicago on Monday, finishing with its third-worst shooting performance of the season (37.7%). The Grizzlies converted only 1-of-7 from long range, and are hitting just 18.9% from behind the arc in their past five games. Zach Randolph (20.1 PPG, 13.1 RPG) had 21 points and 13 rebounds for his seventh consecutive double-double. Randolph has eight straight double-doubles against New Orleans and is averaging 24.5 PPG and 12.1 RPG against the Hornets, but was held to six points and six boards in the last meeting, a 107-96 Grizzlies win last April. Rudy Gay, who leads the team in scoring with 20.7 PPG, shot only 1-of-10 against the Bulls and was held to nine points, which broke his string of 27 straight games of scoring in double-digits.

New Orleans had won 10 of its past 11 against Memphis before losing the final two matchups to the Grizzlies last season. Memphis' 104-100 win at New Orleans on March 3, 2010 snapped a nine-game road losing streak to the Hornets. Expect New Orleans to start another streak against Memphis on Wednesday. Both teams have been great plays ATS this year, as the Grizzlies rank fourth in the league at 60% (24-16-1) and the Hornets are tied for fifth at 58% (23-17-2). This FoxSheets trend likes New Orleans to win and cover and increase its home ATS mark to 13-9.

Play On - Home favorites (NEW ORLEANS) - after 5 or more consecutive wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%). (55-20 since 1996.) (73.3%, +33 units. Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Cincinnati looks to hand Notre Dame its 3rd straight loss


CINCINNATI BEARCATS (16-2, 3-2 in Big East)

at NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (14-4, 3-3 in Big East)


Tip-off: Wednesday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Notre Dame -3, Total: 130

And you thought you had a bad weekend? When Cincinnati and Notre Dame square off Wednesday night in South Bend, each team will be desperate to wipe away the taste of two rotten-milk losses at the hands of teams they were hoping to send a message too. Last Saturday the Bearcats wanted to show the Orange that their 15-0 start was no fluke, but after shooting 39% from the field and 45% from the FT line, Cincy had to settle for a 15-point loss in the Carrier Dome. Notre Dame was attempting to secure its second win in eight days against St. John’s, but stumbled miserably Sunday afternoon in Madison Square Garden. Whether a five-day layoff or the early start time was a factor, the Irish were flatter than a two-week-old can of soda, falling to the Johnnies 72-54. With the Bearcats 3-2 in league play, and Notre Dame 3-3, the loser of this game could be purchasing a coach seat on the tour bus headed for overrated-ville. Not a good place to be, since the next-to-final stop that bus will make is the NIT.

It was a puzzling performance in New York for the Irish, and it wrapped up a difficult week that saw Mike Brey’s team drop two road contests. Monday night Notre Dame fell to Marquette by a score of 79-57, in a game where the Golden Eagles shot over 70% from three-point land and over 53% from the field. Sunday the Irish once again were “defensively challenged,” allowing the Red Storm to shoot nearly 50% from the field and over 44% from beyond the arc. On the offensive side of things, Notre Dame set a record for first-half futility, as they could only manage four field goals in the opening 20 minutes, a school-record low for a Big East game. The Irish only made 16 baskets the entire game, as starters Tim Abromaitis (10 points), Tyrone Nash (seven points) and Scott Martin (four points) were all below their season averages. Normally one of the better three-point shooting teams in the league (36.2%) the Irish could only hit on 20% of its long-range attempts versus St. John’s. Fortunately the Irish will be at home, where they are undefeated this year (11-0 SU, 4-3 ATS), and have won their Big East games on average by double-digit margins.

Cincinnati actually battled back in its game at Syracuse, pulling to within four points at halftime, but a 16-0 Orange run to start the second half quickly tamed the Bearcats, sending them down to defeat for the second time in less than a week. Both of Cincy’s losses have come on the road against Top-10 Big East competition (Villanova and Syracuse). In both games the Bearcats were plagued by dreadful shooting, hitting just 36% of their shots against ‘Nova, and 30.5% from the floor against the Orange. One good sign for Mick Cronin’s team was that leading scorer Dion Dixon (12.8 PPG) was able to snap out of his mini slump to tally 18 points versus the Orange. Dixon had failed to reach his average in four of the previous six games. At 56.2 PPG, Cincinnati boasts the stingiest defense in the league, and even on Saturday it held Syracuse eight points below its team scoring average. The last time the Bearcats went to South Bend in February, they were smoked 83-65, thanks to 37 points from Luke Harangody. Cronin is hoping that with Harangody in the NBA, and the league’s best defensive team in the house, he can extend the bad luck of the Irish to the tune of a third consecutive loss.

These schools have met six times since 2000 with Notre Dame going 5-1 ATS and 4-2 SU in those games. This four-star FoxSheets trend also sides with Notre Dame to win and cover on Wednesday.

CINCINNATI is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) off a road loss over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CINCINNATI 67.5, OPPONENT 67.5 - (Rating = 4*).

This FoxSheets trend expects the game to finish Under the total.

NOTRE DAME is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was NOTRE DAME 64.3, OPPONENT 66.8 - (Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Duke favored by 10 at NC State Wednesday


DUKE BLUE DEVILS (16-1, 3-1 in ACC)

at NORTH CAROLINA STATE WOLFPACK (11-6, 1-2 in ACC)


Tip-off: Wednesday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Duke -10, Total: 151

Throw out the records? If you don’t think the seeds of bitterness between rivals North Carolina State and Duke do not run at least as deep as it does for the neighbors in Chapel Hill, take recent history into account. Last season, in the midst of a horrid stretch that saw his team lose eight out of 10 games in league play, there was one bright spot for head coach Sidney Lowe, one sliver of hope that salvaged the psyche of the Wolfpack, and maybe saved a coach’s job. That moment: N.C. State 88, Duke 74. Throw out the records. It was the first victory for the Pack on its home floor against Mike Krzyzewski and the Blue Devils since 2004. They will try and make it two in a row Wednesday at the RBC Center, on a night when you can bet the experienced Blue Devils will be on Red Alert, which also describes Sidney Lowe’s rivalry game attire -- the Red Blazer.

Duke is averaging only 70.5 PPG in four ACC games, but it is holding ACC opponents to 63.3 PPG on 38.8% FG. Following its 66-61 loss last week to Florida State, the Blue Devils fell all the way to #5 in the Coaches’ Poll and are now looking up in the rankings for the first time in ages. Duke shook off some of the after-effects of its defeat by returning to Durham and taking out Virginia 76-60. After trailing by six at the half, Andre Dawkins scored 12 of his 14 points in the second half, Mason Plumlee grabbed a career-high 16 rebounds, and Nolan Smith had another monstrous effort, posting 29 points, seven rebounds, six assists, and three steals. Smith is now averaging 20.1 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 5.7 APG, 1.4 SPG, is hitting 50% of his FG attempts, and is building a convincing (albeit dark horse) case for National Player of the Year honors. And, oh by the way, last season’s Most Outstanding Player of the Final Four, Kyle Singler (17.7 PPG, 6.1 RPG) remains one more piece of the puzzle that opposing teams must account for.

The Wolfpack are glad to be home after back-to-back road losses at Boston College and Florida State, where the Seminoles followed up their win over Duke with a win over Duke’s neighbor. The Pack trailed 28-19 at the half, and could never muster a comeback, as they went down 84-71. N.C. State allowed five Seminole starters to score in double figures, a fact that probably has the Blue Devils players licking their chops. The Pack is shooting near 46% on the year, but were a dismal 39% against Florida State. N.C. State has four players averaging in double figures, led by senior forward Tracy Smith (15.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG). Freshman C.J. Leslie (11.1 PPG, 8.0 RPG) leads the team in rebounding. When it comes to the three-point attack, it’s the wood that makes the Pack good, as in sophomore forward Scott Wood (10.7 PPG, 3.5 RPG) who is hitting on 43% of his three-point FG attempts, that’s nearly as good as he is shooting overall (43.5% from the floor).

Duke averages 85.5 PPG (fourth-best in Division I) on 48.2% shooting (24th in Division I). If the Wolfpack cannot increase their defensive intensity from Saturday, when they allowed FSU to shoot over 54% for the game, it could be a long night on tobacco road for Sidney Lowe’s team. The Blue Devils have been a bit turnover-prone this year (six games of 15+ TO), but N.C. State has only forced 8.0 TO per game in seven outings against major-conference schools this season, minimizing its chances to pull off the upset. These two FoxSheets trends also like Duke to win and cover on the road.

Play On - A road team (DUKE) - an excellent offensive team (>=76 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG), after scoring 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games. (47-22 since 1997.) (68.1%, +22.8 units. Rating = 2*).

Mike Krzyzewski is 96-65 ATS (59.6%, +24.5 Units) off a home win by 10 points or more as the coach of DUKE. The average score was DUKE 84.0, OPPONENT 66.7 - (Rating = 2*).

This FoxSheets coaching trend sides with the Over.

Sidney Lowe is 26-11 OVER (70.3%, +13.9 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%) as the coach of NC STATE. The average score was NC STATE 69.7, OPPONENT 77.0 - (Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

Louisville favored by 7.5 over St. John's


ST. JOHN'S RED STORM (11-5, 4-2 in Big East)

at LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (14-3, 3-1 in Big East)


Tip-off: Wednesday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Louisville -7.5, Total: 140

Louisville hopes to keep the momentum going at home when it hosts surprising St. John's on Wednesday night.

The Cardinals are coming off a thrilling 71-70 victory over Marquette on Saturday. Louisville erased an 18-point deficit in the final 5:44 to claim the victory, its 12th at the KFC Yum! Center this season. Three players finished in double-digits against the Golden Eagles, with Preston Knowles (15.6 PPG, 43.4% three-pointers) leading the way with 17 points. Knowles shot 6-of 13 from the floor and 5-of-8 from beyond the arc. Kyle Kuric (7.3 PPG, 40.7% three-pointers), who scored the game-winning layup with four seconds to go, finished with 10 points and four rebounds, while Peyton Siva, second on the team in scoring with 10.9 PPG and 4.9 APG, had five points, but was 0-for-5 from the field. Siva also had four turnovers against Marquette and watched the comeback from the bench, as Elisha Justice finished the game as Louisville's point guard. The Cardinals shot 51.7% (15-of-29) in the second half, while holding Marquette to 33.9% (19-of-56) shooting for the game.

St. John's ended its two-game skid with an emphatic 72-54 win against Notre Dame on Sunday at Madison Square Garden. Four players finished in double-figures, led by D.J. Kennedy (11.3 PPG, 6.0 RPG) and Malik Boothe (4.6 PPG) with 14 points apiece. Dwight Hardy (15.5 PPG) chipped in with 12 points, but took only six shots from the field, making four, while Justin Brownlee (14.3 PPG, 4.9 RPG) added 11 points and five boards. The Red Storm got 24 points from their bench, and forced 20 Fighting Irish turnovers, while limiting ND to just 41% (16-of-39) shooting from the field and 20% (3-of-15) from beyond the arc. Wednesday's game at Louisville marks the Red Storm's fifth consecutive Big East game against a ranked opponent. St. John's lost at Notre Dame, 76-61, and versus Syracuse, 76-59, but beat Georgetown, 61-58, and the Irish to split the four contests.

Louisville and St. John's have met 12 times, and the Cardinals own an 8-4 all-time series advantage. The Cards have won four of the past five meetings and split two games last season, with each team winning on their home court. Louisville got a 75-68 victory at Freedom Hall as Knowles scored 12 points on 6-of-11 shooting. The Red Storm defeated the Cardinals, 74-55, later in the season behind Kennedy's 15 points. Despite Louisville’s dominance of the series, the Red Storm are 5-2 ATS (2-5 SU) in the past seven meetings, and this four-star FoxSheets trend likes St. John’s to at least cover the spread on Wednesday night.

LOUISVILLE is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LOUISVILLE 70.4, OPPONENT 75.8 - (Rating = 4*).

[StarDust Bum]

Lakers try to continue Mavericks freefall


LOS ANGELES LAKERS (31-12)

at DALLAS MAVERICKS (26-14)


Tip-off: Wednesday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Los Angeles -3, Total: 190.5


The Dallas Mavericks host Kobe Bryant and the Los Angeles Lakers Wednesday night in a battle of Western Conference foes.

The Mavericks have completely hit the skids after starting the season 24-5. Since then they have lost nine of 11, which includes their past six games. After starting the season 18-9 ATS, the Mavs have gone 2-9 since then, which includes 1-4 at home, where they are 8-12 ATS this season. The big reason for the Mavericks’ collapse in their last 11 games has to do with injures. Leading scorer Dirk Nowitzki went down with a sprained knee on December 27, then third-leading scorer Caron Butler was lost for the season on January 1 with knee surgery. Nowitzki returned on Saturday, but scored seven points and was ejected after playing just 15 minutes in an 89-70 loss to the Grizzlies. He then scored 32 points in Monday’s 103-89 defeat to the Pistons. Jason Terry was the only other Mavericks player to score in double figures versus Detroit. Since Nowitzki’s injury, the Mavs are averaging an NBA-worst 89.5 PPG.

The Lakers have won 10 of their past 12 SU, but they are just 5-10 ATS over their last 15 games. They are a subpar 19-24 ATS on the season, including 10-11 ATS on the road where they have lost four of their last five ATS. Andrew Bynum recorded his second straight double-double in the Lakers 101-94 win over the Thunder on Monday and is averaging 14.0 PPG and 11.5 RPG on 63.2% FG (12-for-19) over that span. Pau Gasol has scored at least 20 points in three of his past four games, averaging 19.5 PPG over that span.

The Lakers have won three of their last four trips to Dallas. Despite the Mavericks struggles of late, this is the perfect chance for them to get their season back on track. With Nowitzki back to full strength, the Mavs need a third scorer to consistently join the fray. With Shawn Marion, Jason Kidd and DeShawn Stevenson on the roster, I like the chances for them to get consistent scoring from that third player. I’m taking Dallas plus the points.

FoxSheets says:

Play On - Home teams (DALLAS) - after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). (55-23 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.5%, +29.7 units. Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

College Hoops Top 25 ATS Breakdown


This week, we’ve analyzed the current AP Top 25 to find out which of the nation’s top-ranked teams are also delivering ATS. What we’ve found is that many of the teams at the top of the ATS list entered the season with modest to no expectations. All the numbers are through Monday, Jan. 17.
There are 10 teams in this week’s Top 25 are above 60% ATS this season. Three of these 10 teams did not receive a single vote in the AP preseason poll. The average ranking for the seven that did receive votes was 22. Only one was in the preseason Top 10 (Villanova – 6) and just two others were in the Top 20 (Purdue – 14, Washington – 18). Here is the list, in order of ATS winning percentage:

Current Rank. Team, ATS W-L (Pct.) – Preseason AP Rank
10. Texas, 9-3 (75%) – 27
11. Texas A&M, 6-2 (75%) – NR
8. Connecticut, 8-3 (73%) – 39
14. Purdue, 10-4 (71%) – 14
6. San Diego State, 12-5 (71%) – 25
18. Wisconsin, 9-4 (69%) – 26
22. St. Mary’s, 9-4 (69%) – NR
7. Villanova, 10-5 (67%) – 6
20. Washington, 10-5 (67%) – 18
19. Louisville, 8-5 (62%) – NR

By contrast, among the 15 teams in this week’s Top 25 that are below 60% ATS, only two did not receive votes in the preseason poll. Six were in the Top 10 and five others were in the Top 20. The average ranking for the 13 that received votes was 13.

Current Rank. Team, ATS W-L (Pct.) – Preseason AP Rank
23. Georgetown, 10-7 (59%) – 20
12. Kentucky, 7-5 (58%) – 11
25. Cincinnati, 7-5 (58%) – NR
23. Illinois, 9-9 (50%) – 13
4. Duke, 8-8 (50%) – 1
2. Kansas, 8-8 (50%) – 7
16. Notre Dame, 7-7 (50%) – NR
13. Missouri, 7-7 (50%) – 15
5. Pittsburgh, 7-7 (50%) – 5
1. Ohio State, 7-8, (47%) – 4
21. West Virginia, 6-7 (46%) – 29
15. Minnesota, 8-10 (44%) – 30
9. BYU, 6-8 (43%) – 24
3. Syracuse, 7-10 (41%) – 10
17. Michigan State, 6-10 (38%) – 2
While some of the top performers such as Connecticut and San Diego State are no longer flying under the radar, they still merit attention. Several others on the list are still rising and may still be undervalued.

The biggest disappointment of the year is clearly Michigan State. The Spartans, who have participated in the Final Four the last two seasons and were number two in the preseason poll, are the only team in the current Top 25 that is below 40% ATS (6-10, 37.5%).

Looking ahead to this Saturday’s action, the top four teams from our Top 10 ATS list are facing teams that are no better than 50% ATS this season, three of which are currently ranked in both polls, and one (Kansas State) that is ranked only in the coaches’ poll. All of these 50%-and-below teams were ranked in the preseason Top 10 and may still be getting too much respect from oddsmakers.

Texas (75% ATS) at Kansas (50% ATS)
Texas A&M (75% ATS) vs. Kansas State (31% ATS)
Connecticut (73% ATS) at Syracuse (41% ATS)
Purdue (71% ATS) vs. Michigan State (38% ATS)