The Bum's Tuesday's Best Bets NBA-NHL-NCAAB !

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NCAA Odds: Kentucky Wildcats at Alabama Crimson Tide

The young Kentucky Wildcats are trying to learn how to win on the road in the SEC as they visit the Alabama Crimson Tide on Tuesday night.

No. 12 Kentucky (14-3 straight-up, 7-5 against the spread) has played just one SEC road game this year, a 77-70 loss at Georgia as five-point favorites back on January 8.

Kentucky only shot 38 percent from the field and had three players foul out late. This is an extremely thin team with just 10 guys on the roster and a six-man rotation. The three leading scorers are all freshmen with forward Terrence Jones (18.6 PPG) and guards Brandon Knight (17.5 PPG) and Doron Lamb (13.8 PPG).

The Wildcats are 2-2 SU and ATS in true road games this year. They were 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS in SEC road games last year, although that was a completely different squad with five players who left as NBA first-round picks.

Coach John Calipari was angry about the Georgia loss and Kentucky has rebounded with home wins over Auburn (78-54) and most recently LSU (82-44). The ‘under’ went 2-0 and is 7-4-1 on the season. Kentucky is only 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games after allowing less than 50 points.

Jones has been the sixth man the last two games instead of Lamb. He scored 35 total points in his new role and should remain there Tuesday night. The 6-foot-8 Jones is the team’s only rotation player over 6-foot-7 with the exception of 6-foot-10 Josh Harrellson.

Harrellson and Jones combine for 18.5 rebounds per game. The team is No. 1 in the SEC in rebounding margin (7.2 per game) with every player hitting the boards. Center Enes Kanter from Turkey would have been a huge addition, but was recently ruled permanently ineligible.

Alabama (10-7 SU, 5-8 ATS) had a tough start to the year at 5-6 SU and 1-7 ATS. There were outright losses to St. Peter’s and Iowa as 12 and 8 ½-point favorites respectively and second-year coach Anthony Grant seemed he would be lucky to match last year’s 17-15 SU mark.

Grant’s guys have turned things around the last six games, going 5-1 SU and 4-1 ATS. The only loss was last Saturday at Arkansas, 70-65 as two-point underdogs. Bama led 63-59 with just over three minutes left until the Razorbacks ended with an 11-2 run.

Alabama did have wins and ‘covers’ in its first two SEC games at Mississippi State (75-57) and home to South Carolina (57-47).

The 135 combined points scored in the matchup with Arkansas went over the 127-point total. The ‘over’ is 5-2 in the Crimson Tide’s last seven games with totals, a lot of them low.

Alabama ranks 10th among SEC teams in scoring at 67.5 PPG (Kentucky is tops at 80 PPG). However, Alabama leads in points allowed at 56.8 PPG.

The team has two solid scorers in forwards JaMychal Green (15.4 PPG) and Tony Mitchell (14.4 PPG). Guards Charvez Davis (9.4 PPG), Trevor Releford (9.7 PPG) need to be more consistent with their offensive output.

The Crimson Tide match up well against Kentucky size and depth wise. They were 0-2 SU, but 2-0 ATS in the two meetings last year at Kentucky and in the SEC tournament. Kentucky is 4-1 ATS in its last five at Alabama. The ‘under’ is 5-1 in the last six at Alabama.

Neither team is reporting any significant injuries. ESPN will have the 6 p.m. (PT) tip-off from Coleman Coliseum in Tuscaloosa following Michigan State at Illinois.

[StarDust Bum]

Illinois hosts Michigan State in Big Ten betting

The No. 16 Illinois Fighting Illini a 3-2 spread record in their last five games, with the ‘over’ going 4-1. Bruce Weber’s squad begins a two-game homestand with Tuesday’s duel against the No. 24 Michigan State Spartans, who enter the contest following two straight overtime wins.

Michigan State’s latest triumph in extra minutes came with Saturday’s 71-67 win as an 8 ½-point home favorite against the Northwestern Wildcats. The Spartans came back from a five-point halftime deficit to tie the game, 60-60, before outscoring Northwestern in overtime, 11-7.

Spartans guard Keith Appling logged a team-high of 19 points, while adding four boards. The team’s top three-point shooter (45.2 percent) drained 5-of-8 from beyond the arc.

Michigan State’s Draymond Green finished with 16 points and a team-high eight boards. The junior forward hit 10-of-10 free throws, while adding two assists.

The tight affair’s combined 138 points stayed south of the 141 ½-point ‘total,’ bringing the ‘under’ to 5-1 in the Spartans’ past six games. Michigan State allowed 45.3 percent of Northwestern’s field shots to connect, while outrebounding the Wildcats, 34-25.

The Spartans are 3-4 ATS in their first seven games away from home, with the ‘under’ cashing at 5-2. Tom Izzo’s troops have put up 61.7 PPG in the last three contests of that stretch.

Illinois suffered its second loss in Big Ten Conference play with Saturday’s 76-66 defeat as a six-point road dog against the Wisconsin Badgers. The Fighting Illini were held to 30.2 percent field shooting, while connecting on 30-of-36 free throws.

Fighting Illini guard Demetri McCamey notched team-highs of 23 points and five assists. The senior hit a sparse 3-of-13 from the field, struggling after combining to shoot 52.2 percent over his prior five outings.

McCamey’s mate Mike Tisdale grabbed a team-high nine rebounds en route to finishing with eight points. The team’s leader in blocks (1.4 BPG) failed to log one for the second time in three games, while draining 1-of-2 three-point shots.

The battle’s combined 142 points soared above the NCAA odds ‘total’ of 124. Both squads finished even in rebounds (32-32) and turnovers (7-7).

The Fighting Illini are 6-3 ATS in their first nine ’board’ home dates, with the ‘over’ going 5-3 in the eight matchups containing a ‘total.’ Tisdale and Co. have allowed a stingy 62 PPG in their last two home duels.

Illinois is 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings against the Spartans, with the ‘total’ splitting at 2-2.

The Fighting Illini won last February’s matchup between the rivals, 78-73, as 1 ½-point home dogs. McCamey hit 6-of-9 from three-point land for Illinois en route to a team-high 22 points. Green logged a double-double for Michigan State, finishing with 17 points and 16 boards.

Tuesday’s tip is scheduled for 4 p.m. (PT), with ESPN providing the national television coverage.

Both teams will be off for three days until resuming action as part of Saturday’s college hoops card. Michigan State will visit the No. 8 Purdue Boilermakers, while Illinois hosts the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Betting Preview: Bobcats at Chicago Bulls

It's amazing to think that the 15-win Charlotte Bobcats have a great chance of making the playoffs in the Eastern Conference. They start off Monday just a half-game outside of the second season, and they'll be back in action on Tuesday when they take on the Chicago Bulls.

This 5 p.m. (PT) matchup from Second City's United Center can be seen on Sports South or Cox Sports Chicago.

Both squads have NBA wagering wars to contend with on Monday afternoon on the road, so both will be traveling overnight. The Bulls are at the Memphis Grizzlies, while the Bobcats are at the Philadelphia 76ers.

The Bobcats enter Monday with one of the worst offenses in the NBA, scoring just 92.9 PPG which ranks 28th. The team hasn't exceeded 96 points in a game since January 8 against the Washington Wizards, and it hasn't done it against a team over .500 since December 7 versus the Denver Nuggets. Since that point, Charlotte has only averaged a pitiful 83.0 PPG against teams with winning records, and it is 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS in that stretch.

Head Coach Paul Silas' squad is led by Stephen Jackson, who is putting up 18.4 PPG this year. He is a big chunk of the shooting problem that the Bobcats have, as he is only shooting 41.2 percent from the field. Charlotte is shooting just 45.0 percent from the field as a team, ranking No. 22.

Gerald Wallace is back on the court after sitting out with an ankle injury for four games at the start of calendar year 2011. He is only averaging 16.3 PPG and 5.3 RPG since that point. This is a huge decay for a man that averaged a double-double per game last year.

The Bulls aren't really that great of an offensive club either, but they are averaging 99.0 PPG, well above what the Bobcats are putting up on a nightly basis. The difference is that the defense instilled in this team by head coach Tom Thibodeau is dynamic. Chicago is only allowing 93.5 PPG this year, and teams are only shooting 42.8 percent from the field, the best percentage against in the NBA.

Chicago has won four of its last five outright and is 3-1-1 ATS in that stretch coming into this duel with the Grizz. This is the start of a home stretch of six games that will run through the end of the month. At the United Center, the Bulls are 12-7-2 ATS this year.

Derrick Rose is really playing like the league's MVP, and he really could be the winner of the award by the time it is said and done. He is putting up 24.5 PPG this year and is dishing out right at 8.0 APG. Rose is getting a lot of help from Carlos Boozer now that he is back in the lineup. The former member of the Utah Jazz and Cleveland Cavaliers has put up some fantastic numbers, averaging 20.1 PPG and 10.1 RPG.

The problem the Bulls have is that Boozer is dealing with an ankle injury that is likely to keep him out of Monday's lineup and maybe Tuesday as well. He isn't the only double-double per night man out of the fold though, as Joakim Noah is also out with a thumb injury that has cost him the last 16 games.

The Bulls have won 10 of the last 18 games in this series, but they are only 9-9 ATS in that stretch as well. Charlotte is just 2-9 SU but is 6-5 ATS in its last 11 visits to the United Center in NBA betting action.

[StarDust Bum]

Canucks close NHL betting trip at Avalanche

Vancouver, armed with the league’s best record at 29-10-3-3, concludes a five-game road trip against possible first-round postseason opponent Colorado (23-16-6-0). The Canucks have split the first four games of this trip, and now maintain a 14-7-3 road record.

If the season ended today, these two teams would collide in the opening round of the playoffs.

Vancouver hits the ice for the first time since Sunday’s setback to Minnesota as 143 road ‘chalk,’ 4-0. The four goals failed to topple the 5 ½-goal closing total, helping the ‘under’ improve to 2-0-1 the previous three outings.

The Canucks surrendered two goals each in the second and third periods, but finished the contest with more shots on goal, 32-25. Vancouver has now been shut out in two of its last three games after enjoying a 17-game unbeaten streak.

The Canucks are atop the league in most categories, ranking second in power-play percentage (23.9), third in goals per game (3.3) and goals against (2.4), and seventh in penalty-kill percentage (84.6). Vancouver is a solid 10-3 its past 13 road contests, while the ‘under’ is 6-2 the last eight matchups versus Western Conference teams.

Colorado has alternated wins and losses its last four outings after skating past Minnesota Friday as a 110 road favorite, 4-1. The combined five goals failed to eclipse the NHL odds total, helping the ‘under’ cash the second consecutive contest.

Goaltender Craig Anderson recorded 32 saves in the victory, while Kevin Porter, Milan Hejduk, Tomas Fleischmann and Ryan Wilson provided the offense. Hejduk’s tally was the Avalanche’s first goal the last 29 power plays. Colorado prevailed despite getting outclassed in shots on goal, 33-18.

Colorado ranks fourth in the league in goals per game (3.2), ninth in power-play percentage (20.0), but a lowly 28th in goals against (3.2) and penalty-kill percentage (77.3). The Avs are just 2-6 their last eight home games, and 5-12 the previous 17 outings against Northwest Division opponents.

Vancouver is 4-0 SU and ATS this season against Colorado, and 8-1 the previous nine encounters. The Canucks won the latest matchup Jan. 2 as 131 road ‘chalk,’ 2-1, while the combined three goals went ‘under’ the six-goal closing total. The ‘over’ is now 5-2-1 the previous eight games in this series.

Vancouver defenseman Aaron Rome (knee injury) and center Alexandre Boulduc (shoulder) are ‘out’ indefinitely. The Canucks embark on a four-game homestand following this contest versus San Jose, Calgary, Dallas and Nashville.

Colorado center Ryan O’Reilly (shoulder) is ‘out’ versus the Canucks, while defenseman Kyle Cumiskey (concussion) is ‘questionable.’ The Avs continue a five-game homestand against Nashville, Boston, St. Louis and Phoenix. Colorado has seen the ‘over’ go 15-8 when skating on its home ice.

Tuesday’s contest is scheduled to start at 6:05 p.m. PT from Denver’s Pepsi Center.

[StarDust Bum]

NHL Odds: Capitals, Flyers collide in Philadelphia

Two Eastern Conference division leaders square off Tuesday when the Washington Capitals begin a three-game road excursion with a stop in the City of Brotherly Love to take on the Philadelphia Flyers. The puck drops at 4 p.m. (PT).

Washington begins the trip tied for first place in the Southeast Division with the surprising Tampa Bay Lighting. The Flyers sit alone atop the Atlantic Division thanks to a surge that has seen them capture six of their last seven outings.

The Caps snapped a three-game losing skid Sunday by registering a 3-1 victory against the Ottawa Senators as 190 home favorites. The combined four goals ducked below the 5 ½-goal closing total, leaving the ‘under’ 8-1-1 in Washington’s last 10 encounters and 31-14 overall. The Caps have also seen the ‘under’ go 16-4 in their first 20 road dates.

The victory wasn’t easy, as the Caps needed a trio of third period goals in the span of six minutes and 16 seconds to secure the win.

Michal Neuvirth made 22 saves to record the win and raise his record to 15-6-1-3. He has a 2.55 GAA, a .912 save percentage and one shutout.

Offense continues to be an unexpected problem for the Caps, as they have not scored more than three goals in any of their last 10 efforts. The drought has seen Washington drop to 14th offensively with an average of 2.8 goals per game. The club is also just 17th on the power play, converting just 18.1 percent of its opportunities with the man advantage.

But the Caps continue to flourish defensively, allowing the eighth fewest goals in the league at 2.6 GPG. They are also fifth on the penalty kill, fighting off 85 percent of their opponents chances with the man advantage.

Washington’s Alexander Semin, who is out with an undisclosed lower-body injury, was placed on injured reserve Sunday. The right wing has missed four games since absorbing a hip-to-thigh hit in the third period of a Jan. 8 contest against the Florida Panthers.

Philadelphia is off Sunday’s 3-2 victory at New York against the Rangers. The win allowed the Flyers to go 3-1 on the four-game road trip. They will now play three of their next four games at home, where they are 13-6-0-2.

The combined five goals ducked ‘under’ the NHL odds, snapping the Flyers’ streak of three straight ‘over’ games. Nevertheless, the ‘over’ is 7-3 in their last 10 outings.

The Flyers held a comfortable three-goal edge for almost the first half of the third period before going into an inadvertent prevent-style defense that nearly cost them the game. They posted just three shots in the third period on Rangers goalie Marty Biron, the fewest they've had in any single period this season.

Mike Richards' eventual game-winning goal, which occurred shorthanded, was the Flyers' first shorthanded goal since Nov. 24 in Minnesota. The Flyers' seven shorthanded goals ties them for second-most in the NHL.

Brian Boucher stopped 34 of 36 shots to collect the win and raise his ledger to 11-5-1-1. He has a 2.43 GAA and a .916 save percentage.

However, Sergei Bobrovski has been getting the majority of playing time in the Philly net. He is 17-6-1-2 with a 2.53 GAA and .917 save percentage. Neither goalie has a shutout.

The Flyers and Caps have split two meetings this season, with both matchups being played in Washington and both going past regulation time.

The initial meeting occurred on Nov. 7, with the Caps registering a 3-2 overtime victory as 175 home favorites. The combined five goals ducked ‘under’ the six-goal closing total.

The rematch took place two weeks later, with the Flyers needing a shootout session to notch the 5-4 victory. The combined nine goals soared ‘over’ the six-goal closing total.

The Flyers are 19-7-1 against the Caps in the last 27 series meetings in Philly, with the ‘over’ going 18-6-3 during that span.

Washington continues its three-game road trip Thursday with a stop in New York to play the Islanders, while Philadelphia stays home for a Thursday matchup against Ottawa.

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday, January 18Game Score Status Pick Amount

Atlanta - 7:30 PM ET Atlanta +6 500
Miami - Under 190.5 500

Charlotte - 8:00 PM ET Chicago -7.5 500
Chicago - Over 184 500


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Tuesday, January 18Game Score Status Pick Amount

Georgetown - 7:00 PM ET Georgetown -3.5 500
Seton Hall - Under 136.5 500

Tennessee - 7:00 PM ET Tennessee +4 500
Georgia - Over 139.5 500

Michigan St - 7:00 PM ET Illinois -4 500
Illinois - Over 135 500

Colorado - 7:00 PM ET Colorado +4 500
Nebraska - Over 133.5 500

Clemson - 8:00 PM ET Clemson +5.5 500
North Carolina - Over 138 500

Texas Tech - 8:00 PM ET Oklahoma -3.5 500
Oklahoma - Under 139 500

Illinois St. - 8:05 PM ET Drake -2.5 500
Drake - Under 121 500

Evansville - 8:05 PM ET Southern Illinois -4.5 500
Southern Illinois - Over 126 500

Michigan - 9:00 PM ET Michigan +6.5 500
Northwestern - Over 134 500

DePaul - 9:00 PM ET DePaul +18.5 500
Marquette - Over 150 500

Kentucky - 9:00 PM ET Alabama +4 500
Alabama - Over 132 500

Texas Christian - 10:00 PM ET Brigham Young -20.5 500
Brigham Young - Under 153.5 500


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Tuesday, January 18Game Score Status Pick Amount

Washington - 7:00 PM ET Washington +129 500
Philadelphia - Under 6 500

Detroit - 7:00 PM ET Detroit +125 500
Pittsburgh - Under 5.5 500

Boston - 7:00 PM ET Boston +115 500
Carolina - Over 5.5 500

Montreal - 7:30 PM ET Montreal +122 500
Buffalo - Over 5 500

Anaheim - 7:30 PM ET Ottawa -104 500
Ottawa - Under 5.5 500

Columbus - 7:30 PM ET Columbus +149 500
Tampa Bay - Over 6 500

Los Angeles - 8:00 PM ET St. Louis -130 500
St. Louis - Over 5.5 500

Vancouver - 9:00 PM ET Colorado +108 500
Colorado - Under 6 500

Nashville - 9:00 PM ET Phoenix -125 500
Phoenix - Over 5 500

Minnesota - 9:30 PM ET Edmonton +107 500
Edmonton - Over 5.5 500


Good Luck !

[StarDust Bum]

Illinois favored by 4.5 over Michigan State


MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (12-5, 4-1 in Big Ten)

at ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI (13-5, 3-2 in Big Ten)


Tip-off: Tuesday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Illinois -4.5, Total: 136

Is Sparty turning the corner? Some folks (not moi) were starting to question if Tom Izzo’s squad had the look of the Final Four contender many thought it was at the beginning of the season. Sitting at 10-5 after a January 8 road loss to Penn State did little to alleviate those concerns. But a closer look at the season put things into better perspective. After all, four of those five Spartan losses came at the hands of Duke, Syracuse, Connecticut and Texas, who are all currently ranked in the Top 10 of the AP Poll. The fifth loss came to a Nittany Lions team that has also defeated Illinois and was tied with Ohio State (in Columbus) with 43.2 seconds to play. Simply put, the Spartans, despite the speed bumps, have the track record and experience to believe that they are better than their record. With back-to-back home victories in overtime in the past week, the signs are there. Tuesday night in Champaign, the men in green hope to generate some more postseason buzz when they take on the Illinois Fighting Illini.

Bruce Weber’s squad is eager to get back home (where they have won nine straight) after two difficult road losses last week, a 57-55 nail biter versus Penn State, and a 76-66 loss to Wisconsin. "We had a tough week here on the road, so now we've got to regroup and come home and get ready for Michigan State” guard Demetri McCamey said. "As long as you win your home games and try to steal some on the road, you'll be in good shape."

Illinois is leading the Big Ten in three-point shooting (42.5%), but struggled at Wisconsin, connecting on just 30% from beyond the arc. McCamey, the Illini leading scorer, had 23 points against the Badgers, but shot only 3-of-13 from the floor. Meanwhile, fellow guard D.J. Richardson (10.4 PPG) struggled mightily in the two losses, totaling just three points while shooting 0-for-8 FG in 55 total minutes of playing time. Weber needs his backcourt to regain its shooting touch in a hurry (preferably by 7 p.m. ET on Tuesday night), while forwards Mike Tisdale and Mike Davis (combining for 14.0 RPG) will need to be ready to bump and grind against a Spartans team that averages 39.4 RPG (34th in Division I).

Michigan State needed its fair share of heroics to stay in the win column last week. The Spartans overcame a nine-point deficit with three minutes to play to force the extra session against Wisconsin, ultimately edging the Badgers 64-61. In Saturday’s 71-67 win over Northwestern, Michigan State, for the moment, was able to rectify two of its biggest weaknesses this season -- foul shooting and turnovers. In the second half and overtime, they committed just five turnovers, while sinking 24-of-28 from the charity stripe for the game. This was a stark contrast to the 15 turnovers they average per game, and the 67% FT they are shooting on the season. Freshman Keith Appling scored a season-high 19 points against the Wildcats, while Kalin Lucas chipped in with 18, and Draymond Green added 16 to go along with his eight rebounds. Last meeting, failure to protect the ball (18 turnovers) and shoot the ball from the line (64%) plagued the Spartans, as they went down to defeat in Champaign against the Illini, 78-73.

The Illini are 8-3 ATS (7-4 SU) in the past 11 home meetings with MSU and these two FoxSheets trends expect Illinois to win and cover at home again.

Tom Izzo is 12-26 ATS (31.6%, -16.6 Units) as a road underdog of 6 points or less or pick as the coach of MICHIGAN STATE. The average score was MICHIGAN STATE 62.2, OPPONENT 68.5 - (Rating = 2*).

MICHIGAN STATE is 12-24 ATS (33.3%, -14.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MICHIGAN STATE 68.5, OPPONENT 67.5 - (Rating = 1*).

These FoxSheets also side with the Under on Tuesday.

Play Under - Road teams against the total (MICHIGAN ST) - off 2 consecutive close wins by 5 or less over a conference rival, good team, winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season. (91-44 since 1997.) (67.4%, +42.6 units. Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Alabama looks to stay unbeaten at home hosting Kentucky


KENTUCKY WILDCATS (14-3, 2-1 in SEC)

at ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (10-7, 2-1 in SEC)


Tip-off: Tuesday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Kentucky -4, Total: 131.5

Terrence Jones (18.6 PPG, 9.0 RPG) may be one of the best freshmen in the country, but of late, he isn’t even getting a shot at being the best freshman in the starting lineup. Jones is his team’s leading scorer and second leading rebounder, but Kentucky head coach John Calipari has been disappointed with his star player’s assist output (he hasn’t had an assist in three games) and energy level on the defensive end. Some might think that finding fault with a freshman forward posting 18 points and nine boards a night is sort of like complaining that your S.I. swimsuit issue arrived three days late in the mail. Things could be worse. Nonetheless, Jones has started the past two games on the bench, in a reserve role, in games in which he has averaged 26.0 PPG and 7.5 RPG. Jones could start another game on the pine come Tuesday night when the Wildcats hit the road to take on Anthony Grant’s Alabama Crimson Tide squad in Tuscaloosa, where the hosts have been on a roll, boasting a 9-0 home record.

Freshman guard Doron Lamb (13.8 PPG) has replaced Jones in the starting lineup, and Calipari has been pleased with Lamb’s defensive efforts, especially at the beginning of games. "We're talking (about) a young team," Calipari said. "We seem to start games better. We seem to play better defense."

Offensively, Lamb tallied six points and five assists in the first half last Saturday, helping the ‘Cats race to a 48-19 halftime advantage over LSU, en route to an 82-44 pasting of the Tigers. Freshman guard Brandon Knight (17.5 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 3.9 APG) has also drawn some extra ire from Calipari despite his gaudy numbers: “It's kind of like Brandon (Knight). We need you to run our team and pass the ball, but I need you to score some baskets too. (Am I) asking a lot of him? Yeah, but I think he's capable." What Calipari will be looking for from the entire team is a better effort on the road. Kentucky lost its last road contest, 77-70 to Georgia on January 8, and is just 2-2 on the road this season.

Despite the fact that Kentucky has won three of its past four meetings at Alabama, and has won five straight times in the series, look for the Tide to bring the defensive pressure to the ‘Cats shortly after the UK team bus arrives. Alabama is allowing an SEC-low 56.8 PPG, and at home, that figure drops to 48.2 PPG. "For us, our defense has given us a chance in every game," coach Anthony Grant said. "Kentucky obviously poses a great challenge with the offensive weapons they come at you with and the way they run their offense." Unfortunately that stout ‘Bama defense was missing in Saturday’s 70-65 loss at Arkansas, where the Tide allowed the Razorbacks to shoot over 54% from the floor in the second half. Alabama will need a big game from junior forward JaMychal Green (15.4 PPG, 7.4 RPG), who has scored over 20 points in two of his past five games. Sophomore Tony Mitchell (14.4 PPG, 7.9 RPG) leads the team in rebounding.

Kentucky has been a better bet this season at 7-5 ATS than Alabama, which is 5-8 ATS. These three FoxSheets trends also like Kentucky to win and cover the small spread on the road.

Play On - Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (KENTUCKY) - an explosive offensive team (>=78 PPG) against an average offensive team (67-74 PPG), after scoring 80 points or more. (51-24 over the last 5 seasons.) (68%, +24.6 units. Rating = 2*).

John Calipari is 11-2 ATS (84.6%, +8.8 Units) after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread as the coach of KENTUCKY. The average score was KENTUCKY 83.4, OPPONENT 61.4 - (Rating = 2*).

Play On - A favorite (KENTUCKY) - in a game involving two good shooting teams (45-47.5%), after game - allowing a shooting pct. of 33% or less. (153-97 since 1997.) (61.2%, +46.3 units. Rating = 2*).

This four-star FoxSheets trend leans towards the Under on Tuesday.

ALABAMA is 14-1 UNDER (+12.9 Units) versus excellent ball handling teams - committing <=12 turnovers/game since 1997. The average score was ALABAMA 67.3, OPPONENT 66.6 - (Rating = 4*).

[StarDust Bum]

Bosh out, James questionable Tuesday vs. Atlanta


ATLANTA HAWKS (27-15)

at MIAMI HEAT (30-12)


Tip-off: Tuesday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Line: TBD

The Heat will try to end a three-game losing streak Tuesday versus Atlanta with a injury-riddled roster. Chris Bosh (ankle) is out, LeBron James (ankle) is questionable and Dwyane Wade (knee) is probable to play against the Hawks.

Atlanta is playing great basketball lately, winning six of its past seven games and scoring at least 100 in all seven contests. However, the competition has not been too fierce as these six opponents (two games versus Sacramento) have a combined 99-142 record (.411) this season. In the past three games (all ATS defeats), Atlanta has allowed 103.7 PPG on 51% FG, while getting outrebounded 146 to 136. The Hawks’ last trip to Miami on Dec. 4 wasn’t very memorable as the Heat won 89-77, holding Atlanta to 40% FG and 29% 3-pt FG (5-for-17). But Joe Johnson didn’t play that game, and he has been on fire recently with 28.9 PPG on 52% FG and 16-of-38 (42%) from three-point land in his past seven games. Johnson had a season-high 36 points on 16-of-27 shooting (59%) in Monday’s 100-98 win over Sacramento. Al Horford pitched in with 23 points, nine rebounds and seven blocks. Horford scored 22 points on 10-of-11 shooting in the December loss to Miami. Jamal Crawford has cooled down considerably since his six-game streak of 20+ points from New Year’s Eve to Jan. 12. In his past two games, Crawford has scored a total of 16 points on 5-of-20 shooting.

The Heat haven’t won since James sprained his left ankle on Jan. 12, dropping the final three contests of their five-game road trip. James said his ankle was improved on Monday, after being a late scratch before Saturday’s 99-96 loss at Chicago, is hoping team trainers will clear him to play against Atlanta. The Hawks are hoping otherwise, considering James is averaging 27.8 PPG, 48% FG, 7.7 RPG and 6.3 APG in 25 career games versus Atlanta. Wade has also enjoyed playing the Hawks, with 23.8 PPG, 50% FG and 6.7 APG in 22 career meetings and 31.8 PPG on 55% FG in his past four home meetings. With Udonis Haslem (foot) out indefinitely, Bosh’s replacement in the starting lineup will be either 37-year-old Juwan Howard (2.4 PPG) or Joel Anthony (1.9 PPG). Anthony played 38 minutes in the loss to Chicago and only scored two points, but he also had five rebounds and three blocks.

Although Miami has been a tough bet at home this season at 6-12 ATS, the Heat have absolutely owned the Hawks at home, posting a 23-8 ATS (27-4 SU) record since 1996, including playoffs. Assuming James plays, the FoxSheets likes Miami to win big on Tuesday.

Play On - Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) - after 1 or more consecutive losses, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). (85-51 over the last 5 seasons.) (62.5%, +28.9 units. Rating = 2*).

Play Against - Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) - playing on back-to-back days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record. (96-55 over the last 5 seasons.) (63.6%, +35.5 units. Rating = 2*).

In the past three seasons, 12-of-16 meetings (and 7-of-8 at Miami) have finished Under the total. The FoxSheets also side with the Under again for Tuesday’s contest.

Play Under - Any team (MIAMI) - after 5 or more consecutive overs, good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game. (131-77 since 1996.) (63%, +46.3 units. Rating = 2*).

Play Under - Any team (ATLANTA) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. (578-422 over the last 5 seasons.) (57.8%, +113.8 units. Rating = 2*).

[The Boomaster]

gl bum