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NFL Playoff Odds: Opening spreads stagnate

Picking Green Bay and Pittsburgh to win on Sunday isn’t the difficult part.

It’s easy to ride the Packers with their hot quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, and back the Steelers at home with their awesome run defense against the ground-oriented New York Jets.

The problem is the pointspread. Both the Packers and Steelers are 3 ½-point favorites in their respective NFL title games.

That makes it rough choosing a side. The oddsmakers did their work well because those numbers don’t figure to move, or do they?

Green Bay opened minus 3, minus 120 (vigorish) against Chicago. Quickly the Packers shot up to 3 ½.

The Packers-Bears matchup isn’t going down to three, but don’t be shocked if a plus-four on Chicago might appear close to game time.

“It depends on the sharp groups,” said Jeff Sherman, assistant race and sports book manager at the Las Vegas Hilton. “The public is betting a lot more on Green Bay.

“The public could put out enough money for the game to get up to four. I think they’ll (‘sharps’) take it (plus four) at that point.”

The Packers were three-point favorites against Chicago when the teams met for the first time in Week 3. Sherman said ‘wise guys’ played the Bears then taking a field goal. So he expects them to take the Bears, who are much improved since Week 3, taking a higher number this time.

Wagering on the Jets-Steelers AFC championship game is more evenly divided.

The Steelers have been the popular choice on the pointspread, while more money line tickets have been written on the Jets, Sherman said. That pattern is typical since most bettors prefer to take a shot on a short ‘dog to win straight-up at a higher payout.

Many Las Vegas books opened Pittsburgh minus 3 ½, including the Hilton. A few opened the Steelers slightly higher at minus four.

The Steelers are a solid 3 ½ across the board. Sherman doesn’t anticipate any line change.

The Jets-Steelers total has remained constant, too, at 38 ½.

Pittsburgh has had one total above 38 in its last six games and that was 39 ½ when it hosted Cincinnati. The ‘over’ has cashed in 14 of Pittsburgh last 16 playoff games.

This includes last Saturday’s 31-24 home playoff victory against Baltimore, which easily exceeded the 37 ½-point total even though the teams combined for only 389 yards of offense.

The Jets-Steelers went ‘over’ the 36-point total when they squared off in Week 15 with New York winning, 22-17. Pittsburgh didn’t have star safety Troy Polamalu in that contest.

The ‘over’ has cashed in four of New York’s last five games. The Jets have gone ‘over’ the total in 10 of their last 11 away matchups. The ‘over’ also is 19-7-1 during the Jets’ past 27 AFC games.

The weather forecast for the Jets-Steelers matchup is temperatures in the teens with a 20 percent chance of snow and little wind.

The Green Bay-Chicago total has risen from an opening of 42 ½ to 43 ½. The weather forecast is cloudy with temperatures in the upper teens to low 20s and winds of 10-to-16 mph.

The Packers and Bears have gone ‘under’ in both meetings this season. The Bears nipped the Packers, 20-17, in Week 3 with the combined 37 points falling ‘under’ the 45 ½-point total.

The teams scored only 13 points during the Week 17 matchup when Chicago kept things in check having already clinched the North Division. The total for that matchup also was 43 ½.

The last six games in the series have gone ‘under.’

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NFL Playoff Odds: Bears, Packers for NFC title


The 182nd meeting between border rivals Green Bay and Chicago takes place Sunday at noon PT on FOX at Solider Field.

Few, if any, of their games have been more important. At stake is the NFC championship and a trip to the Super Bowl.

Oddsmakers at the Las Vegas Hilton and TheGreek.com opened the Packers as three-point road favorites with added juice and an ‘over/under’ of 44. Some other places, including MGM Mirage and Station Casinos, opened the Packers as 3 ½-point favorites.

Green Bay certainly is riding a lot of momentum. The Packers are the ‘it’ team right now. But do they deserve to be favored?

The Bears are the healthier team, have covered both meetings versus Green Bay and hold a strong special teams edge with dangerous kick/punt returner Devin Hester.

Quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler may hold the answer.

Rodgers has been sensational with 11 touchdowns and only one interception in his last four games. Cutler is streaky and lately he’s been on with a quarterback rating above 100 in five of his last seven games.

Rodgers takes good care of the ball. Cutler, though, was picked off 16 times during the regular season in 15 games. Green Bay ranked sixth in takeaways with 32 during the regular season.

The Packers defense held Michael Vick in check in their 21-16 wild-card road win against Philadelphia as one-point ‘dogs. Atlanta could manage just 14 points on offense against Green Bay last week.

Green Bay allowed just 45 yards on the ground to Atlanta and sacked Matt Ryan five times in its 48-21 victory as two-point road underdogs. That was Green Bay’s highest-scoring playoff game in its history.

Despite losing six contributors on defense for the season, the Packers still finished second in fewest points allowed at 15 per game and ranked fifth in total defense and pass defense.

No cornerback is playing better than Tramon Williams, who has picked off three passes the last two weeks.

Thanks to creative defensive coordinator Dom Capers, the Packers’ defense is diverse and unpredictable. Green Bay confused Vick by not blitzing more and bothered Ryan by frequently blitzing.

Chicago has gotten big years from Julius Peppers, Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher.

Still, the Bears have allowed an average of 31.2 points in their last four home games. These matchups have been from late November on when winter conditions makes the traction slick on the grass field at Solider Field. This has worked against Chicago’s defense, which relies on quickness rather than brawn.

The Packers have survived elimination games the past four weeks. This is their third consecutive road game. However, it’s only a short distance from Green Bay to Chicago. The Packers are 26-12-1 ATS in their past 39 road matchups.

The Bears were idle two weeks ago courtesy of winning the NFC North with an 11-5 mark. The Bears built a 35-10 lead on Seattle in last week’s divisional round matchup, winning 35-24 as 10-point home favorites.

Unlike the Packers, which lost 15 players to injuries for the season, the Bears are remarkably healthy. Chicago has won eight of 10 games since its regular-season bye.

One of those losses came to Green Bay, 10-3, during the last week of the regular season. Coach Lovie Smith, to his credit, played his starters and went all out despite the game not meaning anything to Chicago. The Packers were 11-point favorites with the combined 13 points going well ‘under’ the 43 ½-point total.

Chicago also covered in the first meeting upsetting the Packers, 20-17, in Week 3 as three-point home ‘dogs. The combined 37 points dipped ‘under’ the 45 ½-point total. The last six games in the series have gone ‘under.’

The Packers outgained the Bears by 103 yards, but allowed a 62-yard punt return touchdown by Hester and committed a franchise-worse 18 penalties, including one that wiped out a touchdown.

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Championship Weekend Questions

January 21, 2011


How do teams handle back-to-back-to-back road games?
The results for teams facing a third straight road playoff game are not very favorable as only two of eight teams in that situation have advanced (3-5 ATS), with the 1985-86 New England Patriots and the 2005-06 Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh did go on to win the Super Bowl so there is hope for both the Jets and the Packers who are facing that challenging situation this week. Two years ago the same situation arouse with teams in both conferences playing in a third consecutive playoff road game as wild card teams but both home teams won that year as Arizona beat Philadelphia and Pittsburgh beat Baltimore. In the regular season and playoffs combined, teams in a third straight road game have gone 76-146 S/U since 1980, winning just over 34 percent of the time. The ATS numbers are not much better with those teams going 95-126-1 for less than 43 percent. While many feel that home field advantage has been diluted in recent years with more modern and less intimate stadiums and improved travel conditions a more recent snapshot does not suggest significant improvement. Since 1999 teams in third straight road games are just 23-40 S/U (36.5%), and 27-36 ATS (42.8%). So the odds are against the Jets and the Packers this week by those numbers but it is likely rare to see a situation where the road team may be considered the better team in the third straight road game playoff situation, as many would argue in one or both cases this week as this is not a situation where the host was a dominating top seed on either side.

How do home underdogs do in championship games?
With Green Bay opening as road favorites we will have the tenth conference championship game since the early 1980s with a home underdog hosting the title game. It has happened just three times in the last ten seasons, occurring last two years ago as Arizona hosted Philadelphia. Home underdogs in the conference championship are 5-4 S/U and ATS and it is obviously too small of a sample to invoke meaningful data. The last road favorite to win was New England following the 2004 season when they won at Pittsburgh. The last two instances of road favoritism in the conference championship were two of three total instances in the last three decades where the line was three or higher. The Cardinals were the largest home underdog at +3.5. The last time the Packers went to the Super Bowl they did win as road favorites to get there, beating San Francisco 24-21 as -2.5 favorites. Green Bay lost to Denver that year in the Super Bowl who also won as road favorites in Pittsburgh to move on the Super Bowl. Dallas incredibly lost three straight NFC championships as road favorites in the early ‘80s, something Cowboys fans surely will not enjoy being reminded this week as preparations for the Super Bowl in Texas are being made, without the Cowboys as a factor of course.

How do teams that return to the championship game after losing the previous year do?
The Jets are back in the AFC championship this season after losing in the AFC championship last season. It is a remarkable feat but it has been somewhat common. Since the championship games following the 1970 season, losing teams that return to the championship game are 12-14 S/U. In the three most recent instances, the team that got back to the championship game ended up victorious the following year with New England getting to the Super Bowl after the 2007 season after losing to the Colts the previous year in the AFC championship game. There was redemption on both sides after the 2004 season as Pittsburgh beat Denver to advance to the Super Bowl after losing to New England the previous season and Philadelphia also finally got to the Super Bowl after three consecutive NFC championship game losses, beating Atlanta after the 2004 season. Since the championship games following the 1993 season, teams in the championship game return mode after defeat the previous season are actually 7-3 S/U as most of the failures in our historical sample came in the 1970s and 1980s with the Raiders and Cowboys responsible for three championship game repeat failures each. So there may actually be an advantage for the Jets returning to the big game after tasting defeat, although the Jets will be on the road again, something that has made for a more difficult return to the championship game. Teams on the road back in the championship game after losing the previous year are just 3-9 S/U since 1970. The Jets also of course are 0-3 all-time in the AFC championship game but they do have a Super Bowl title from before the championship game set-up started.

What has happened in the recent history of the Packers/Bears series?
This historic series has gone in streaks with the Bears dominating the ‘80s and the early ‘90s while Green Bay actually won ten straight meetings in the mid-‘90s. The last few years have been back-and-forth as the Bears have a 7-5 edge over the last six seasons (6-5-1 ATS). Green Bay and Chicago split in the regular season this season but both games were very close, the Bears did cover in both instances winning as slight home underdogs early in the year and covering as inflated underdogs to close the season in a game that was more critical to the Packers. Home underdogs have not done well in this series going 4-17 S/U since 1980 (8-12-1 ATS). The Bears were 3-1 S/U as home underdogs this season while the Packers were 2-3 S/U and ATS as road favorites this season while also losing last season in the playoffs as road favorites. The over/under is 15-15 in the last 30 meetings between these teams in Chicago although the ‘under’ has hit in five of the last six meetings.

What has happened in the recent history of the Jets/Steelers series?
The Jets and the Steelers do not meet often but the Steelers have had an overwhelming edge going 11-4 S/U and ATS since 1981. The Jets did win 22-17 this season in Pittsburgh and the Jets have covered in four of the last five meetings going back to 2003. The ‘under’ is 9-3-1 in the last 13 meetings going back to 1984 and this will be a higher total than nine of the previous ten meetings between these teams. Under Rex Ryan the Jets are 8-5 S/U and ATS as road underdogs including 6-2 S/U and ATS when an underdog of less than five points. Under Mike Tomlin the Steelers are 47-22 S/U and 36-22-1 ATS as home favorites but just 16-15 (15-15-1 ATS) as home favorites of four or less. The Steelers are 4-1 S/U and ATS as home favorites in the playoffs under Tomlin.

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AFC CHAMPIONSHIP HISTORY
Year Winner Winner's Line Loser Total
2009-2010 at Indianapolis 30 -8 New York 17 40, OVER
2008-2009 at Pittsburgh 23 -6 Baltimore 14 35, OVER
2007-2008 at New England 21 -14 San Diego 12 48, UNDER
2006-2007 at Indianapolis 38 -3.5 New England 34 47, OVER
2005-2006 Pittsburgh 34 +3 at Denver 17 41, OVER
2004-2005 New England 41 -3 at Pittsburgh 27 35, OVER
2003-2004 at New England 24 -3 Indianapolis 14 43, UNDER
2002-2003 at Oakland 41 -8 Tennessee 24 47, OVER
2001-2002 New England 24 +10 at Pittsburgh 17 37, OVER
2000-2001 Baltimore 16 +6 at Oakland 3 36.5, UNDER
Complete History

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP HISTORY
Year Winner Winner's Line Loser Total
2009-2010 at New Orleans 31 -4 Minnesota 28 54, OVER
2008-2009 at Arizona 32 +3 Philadelphia 25 47, OVER
2007-2008 New York Giants 23 +8 at Green Bay 20 41, OVER
2006-2007 at Chicago 34 -2.5 New Orleans 14 42.5, OVER
2005-2006 at Seattle 34 -3.5 Carolina 14 43.5, OVER
2004-2005 at Philadelphia 27 -5.5 Atlanta 10 37.5, UNDER
2003-2004 Carolina 14 +4 at Philadelphia 3 36.5, UNDER
2002-2003 Tampa Bay 27 +4 at Philadelphia 10 34, OVER
2001-2002 at St. Louis 29 +10.5 Philadelphia 24 49, OVER
2000-2001 at New York Giants 41 -2.5 Minnesota 0 42, UNDER
Complete History

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Total Talk - Championships

January 22, 2011

Playoff Recap

The Wild Card round watched the ‘under’ go 3-1, which was a bit shocking since the 2010 regular season has was dominated with an ‘over’ mark of 133-103-1 (56%). As it appears now, this year’s first round of the postseason was just a bump in the road. Sure enough, the ‘over’ train rolled to a 4-0 record in last week’s Divisional Playoff round and the last winning ticket was tough to stomach for ‘under’ players. The Jets held a 14-3 lead over the Patriots at the half and that gap was closed to 14-11 heading into the final quarter. Sure enough, the two teams combined for 24 points in the fourth and 14 of them could’ve been avoided if New York running back Shonn Greene took a knee before his late touchdown. He obviously didn’t and his score helped the combined 49 points jump ‘over’ the closing number of 45. Ouch…!

Coaches Corner

We’re going to hit on this section again, since it’s been golden for bettors so far. In our recent Total Talk playoff columns, we touched on total tendencies in the playoffs for certain coaches.

Gamblers watched Green Bay defeat Philadelphia 21-16 in the Wild Card round, which fell ‘under’ the closing number (46). Did you know that this was the 10th straight home playoff game for the Eagles under Andy Reid that failed to eclipse 43 points? And it was the seventh that has watched 37 or less posted on the board.

Last week, we provided three tendencies and one was burned due to the aforementioned Patriots-Jets outburst at the end. Prior to that ‘over’ ticket, Bill Belichick saw all six of his Divisional Playoff games go ‘under’ the number. It certainly should be 7-0 but 6-1 to the ‘under’ is a trend to watch.

While Belichick and the Pats couldn’t stop a nose bleed (Thanks Bart Scott) last Sunday, there were two other coaches that may’ve helped bettors cash totals and the pair are back in action this week.

Pittsburgh Steelers - Mike Tomlin Playoff Log
Round (Date) Opponent Score Total Result
Divisional - Jan. 15, 2011 Baltimore 31-24 OVER (37)
Divisonal - Jan. 11, 2009 San Diego 35-24 OVER (37.5)
Conference - Jan. 18, 2009 Baltimore 23-14 OVER (35)
Super Bowl - Feb. 1, 2009 Arizona 27-23 OVER (46.5)
WildCard - Jan. 5, 2008 Jacksonville 29-31 OVER (40.5)

Chicago Bears - Lovie Smith Playoff Log
Round (Date) Opponent Score Total Result
Divisional - Jan. 16, 2011 Seattle 35-24 OVER (42)
Divisional - Jan. 14, 2007 Seattle 27-24 OVER (37.5)
Championship - Jan. 21, 2007 New Orleans 39-14 OVER (43)
Super Bowl - Feb. 4, 2007 Indianapolis 17-29 UNDER (47)
Divisional - Jan. 15, 2006 Carolina 21-29 OVER (30.5)



Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin and Chicago’s Lovie Smith both earned their head coaching spots as former defensive coordinators. It’s obvious that this year’s Steelers and Bears have great defensive units. However, when looking at the postseason history (above) for both Tomlin and Smith, it’s been nothing but high-scoring contests. Tomlin is 5-0 to the ‘over’ and Smith is 4-1 to the ‘over’ with the lone loser coming in Super Bowl XLI, which just fell ‘under’ the number.

Will the trends continue this Sunday?

System Plays

Prior to the start of the 2010 football season, VegasInsider.com unveiled its Football Forecast. Along with future predictions and analysis from our top experts, we also listed some proven football systems at the back of the publication (Page 21). Readers following this column on a regular basis are well aware of the “Total Tip – Three Straight on the Road” system. The angle calls for gamblers to play the ‘over’ for any team that is playing their third consecutive game on the road. Over the last six seasons, the ‘over’ went 22-8-2 (73%) in those contests and there five instances in this year’s regular season. The results were 3-2, improving the overall number to 25-10-2 (71%). As it happens often, a lot of these results occurred in the playoffs and perhaps it’s a coincidence that both the Green Bay Packers and New York Jets will be playing their third straight road game on Sunday.

Sunday’s Showdowns

Green Bay at Chicago: Some bettors could be scratching their heads on this total (43), especially when you look at the recent history between the two NFC North squads. The ‘under’ has cashed in six straight and eight of the last 10. And, the two games that did go ‘over’ the number only saw 42 and 47 points posted. In case you forgot, Green Bay had some gunslinger named Brett Favre in those contests, which occurred during the 2007 season.

Chicago and Green Bay combined for 37 points (20-17) from Soldier Field on Sept. 27 in the first encounter this season, and then just 13 (10-3) at Lambeau Field in Week 17, which was a meaningless tilt for the Bears. The totals were 46 and 43 in those contests. Is Sunday’s number too high considering the past history? After watching QB Aaron Rodgers and the Packers put up 48 points last Saturday night at Atlanta, the public perception is high on Green Bay’s attack. Not to mention, everybody watched Chicago notch a 35-spot on Seattle in the Divisional Playoffs last Sunday. While a lot of pundits believe the Bears’ offense isn’t as consistent as Green Bay’s unit, it should be noted that the team did score 40 and 38 against the Vikings and Bears in Week’s 15 and 16 respectively. Also, Chicago watched the ‘over’ go 5-4 in the nine games from Soldier Field and the ‘over’ is on a 7-1 run heading into this matchup.

What you might not know is that Green Bay has been an ‘under’ team (11-7) all season, especially outside of Wisconsin. Even though last week’s effort against the Falcons easily went ‘over’ the number, the ‘under’ has produced an 8-2 record in the Packers’ 10 road games this season.

N.Y. Jets at Pittsburgh: The Jets edged the Steelers 22-17 in Week 14 and the combined 39 points barely slid ‘over’ the closing number of 36. The game was tied 10-10 at the break before the total was locked up when the scored reached 17-17 midway through the third quarter. New York closed the game with a 5-0 run in the fourth and earned the road victory. Ten of the 22 points put up by the Jets came via defense and special teams. Those scores can never be handicapped and those plays are often ‘under’ killers when you have low totals as was the case here. Delving into the box score further, the tempo was definitely geared toward a low-scoring affair when you look at the number of possessions for both Pittsburgh (9) and New York (8).

The second meeting from Heinz Field between the pair has watched the ‘over/under’ spike up to 38 ½ points, which could be directly related to last week’s efforts. New York scored 28 and Pittsburgh had 31 in their Divisional Playoff victories. And, both teams gave up 21 and 24 respectively as well.

Including last week’s winning ‘over’ ticket against New England, the Jets have watched the ‘over’ go 9-1 in their road games this season. Pittsburgh has seen more lower-scoring affairs this year, with the ‘under’ going 9-8, which includes a 5-4 mark at home.

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Sunday, January 23Game Score Status Pick Amount

Green Bay - 3:00 PM ET Green Bay -3.5 500 **********
Chicago - Under 42.5 500 **********

N.Y. Jets - 6:30 PM ET N.Y. Jets +4 500 **********
Pittsburgh - Over 38 500 **********

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Aaron vs. Jay, Packers vs. Bears in NFC title game


CHICAGO (AP) - Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler are two young quarterbacks on the rise, blessed with slingshot arms and nimble feet. Both can handle postseason pressure, earning their first career playoff victories in recent weeks.

They're friendly off the field, exchanging congratulatory text messages when their respective teams won last weekend to set up what might be the juiciest conference championship game ever.

And both men have a chance to cement a place among the NFL's top quarterbacks when the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears revive their historic rivalry in Sunday's NFC championship game at Soldier Field.

For fans, it's a passionate fight for ultimate bragging rights. For players, the game will likely be decided by the two quarterbacks' ability to make big plays and keep drives alive against two top defenses.

``Once you get to these games, it is a quarterback's game,'' Bears coach Lovie Smith said. ``When they have open receivers, hitting them. Standing in the pocket, taking a couple hits if you have to, just being that leader that the team sees is out front making plays.''

But any similarity between Cutler and Rodgers ends when it comes to public perception.

Rodgers is the guy who gracefully scrambled out of Brett Favre's shadow.

Cutler is Favre 2.0, minus much of the homespun country charm.

Rodgers remained poised and quietly confident after Favre was traded in 2008 - even after Rodgers was booed by some of his own fans. Since then, Rodgers has won over just about everyone with his stellar play and likable personality.

If anybody in Wisconsin is still pining for Favre in green and gold, they're doing so very quietly.

``He's playing his best football of his career at this point, and that's what you want, especially this time of year,'' Packers coach Mike McCarthy said of Rodgers. ``He's definitely a big-time quarterback. He's everything we hoped he'd be.''

Cutler remains a talented work in progress.

His throwing mechanics sometimes break down, and he relies on arm strength and a gambling mentality that sometimes leads to head-scratching interceptions.

``I think you're always growing,'' Cutler said. ``You're always trying to get better. You're always learning new stuff. Obviously I had to learn a little bit quicker with the new offense and Mike (Martz). You're always seeing different defenses and always critiquing yourself and if you're not, you're not going to get any better.''

But Packers linebacker A.J. Hawk says Cutler has a ``huge'' arm and seems to have his teammates behind him.

``I think they love having a guy like Jay Cutler, because he brings a lot of energy and big-play capability to the field,'' Hawk said. ``And I think he's done a really good job all year of kind of capitalizing on the defense's mistakes that are made against him and what he can do. He seems like he just has great command of the offense, great command of the game. That's what you want out of a quarterback.''

Given Cutler's risky tendencies, and his at-times aloof demeanor off the field, he hasn't completely won over some Bears fans. That could change Sunday.

``I think everyone in the locker room knows the magnitude of this game, knows what we're going up against,'' Cutler said. ``But at the same time we're going to enjoy it, we're going to be loose, we're going to play our game and we can't worry about what is going to happen afterward if we win, we lose. We just have to go out there and play.''

Rodgers said Sunday's game ``takes the rivalry to the next level,'' creating the kind of atmosphere he's dreamed about playing in since he was a kid.

``It's great that there's so much history, the longest-running rivalry in the National Football League,'' Rodgers said. ``To have one of us, the winner of this game, go to the Super Bowl is pretty special.''

Sure, the quarterbacks won't determine Sunday's game by themselves.

Sloppy field conditions at Soldier Field could disrupt the Packers' wide receivers, hinder the quickness of Bears defensive end Julius Peppers - or both. Clay Matthews and the Packers' blitz schemes could prove to be too much for a still-shaky Bears offensive line, or Chicago's resurgent running game with Matt Forte could keep Green Bay's defense off balance.

The Bears could capitalize on what appears to be a significant edge on special teams, beginning with returner Devin Hester.

But quarterbacks come first, even in a historic rivalry built on toughness, and Packers cornerback Tramon Williams said the Packers will be in for a long afternoon if they don't get pass rush pressure.

``Hopefully, we can get to Cutler and make him make some quick decisions back there,'' Williams said. ``When you watch film, if you let the guy sit back there he can be a nightmare. If you get pressure on pretty much anybody you'll make them make quick decisions and you can make plays.''

Rodgers, meanwhile, was fairly productive in two games against Chicago this year - the Bears won in Chicago in September, and the Packers beat the Bears in their regular-season finale to make the playoffs - but the Bears generally do a pretty good job containing the Packers' offense.

Rodgers said he's looking forward to facing the Bears, especially linebacker Brian Urlacher.

``I don't know how he feels about me. He said he voted for me for the Pro Bowl - I don't know if he's lying or not,'' Rodgers joked. ``A lot of respect on this side for the way that he plays, the way he's played this season. But (he's) somebody I really enjoy playing against.''

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Rex and Roethlisberger big focal points


PITTSBURGH (AP) - If there's a bigger-than-life coach, it has to be Rex Ryan. His outsized personality and outlandish comments - maybe not so absurd given what Ryan's New York Jets have achieved - draw notice no matter the situation.

If there's a bigger-than-most quarterback, literally and figuratively, it has to be Ben Roethlisberger. Not only because he's 6-foot-5, 241 pounds, larger than some linebackers and stronger than nearly everyone else at his position, but because his credentials on the field and troubles away from it have been, well, so noticeable.

Ryan's loud and proud Jets (13-5) face off with Roethlisberger's fearless Steelers (13-4) on Sunday for the AFC championship. Even though both teams are blessed with playmakers galore, the centerpieces will be the bombastic coach and the controversial quarterback.

Better have a huge spotlight.

``You thought last week was emotional and all that,'' says Ryan, referring to a 28-21 victory at New England that improved his postseason record as Jets coach to 4-1 and lifted his team into its second straight AFC title game. ``Just wait until this week.''

This week, after his team beat Peyton Manning and the Colts, then Tom Brady and the Patriots, it's all about Roethlisberger. This AFC championship game is Roethlisberger's fourth in seven seasons, and he owns two Super Bowl rings.

But he's never had a year like the last one, making as many headlines away from the game as he usually does with his playmaking skills.

Roethlisberger was accused in March of the sexual assault of a 20-year-old college student, but a prosecutor in Georgia declined to bring charges. Commissioner Roger Goodell suspended Roethlisberger for four games to start the 2010 season for violating the league's personal conduct policy.

The Steelers organization, among the most respected in sports, was incensed by Roethlisberger's behavior. Pittsburghers were torn about supporting him, noting that Manning and Brady never betrayed their fans' trust in such a way.

What did Roethlisberger do? Apparently, he grew up.

And he kept winning.

``The great thing is that was so long ago I forgot all about it,'' he says. ``Right now it is not about living in the past for me. It's about here and now and this game.''

Ah, the game. Guess what the game could come down to: Ryan's defensive mastery against Roethlisberger's offensive creativity.

Both of them know it, too.

``Literally everything, from their coverages to their blitzes to rushing two guys and getting sacks,'' Roethlisberger says of the challenge the Jets present. ``They can go into Indianapolis and beat Peyton Manning and go to New England and beat Tom Brady, who are the best two quarterbacks in the game in my opinion. I don't know how I have a chance.''

Don't buy it. He'll have plenty of opportunities. The Steelers are 4-point favorites to avenge their 22-17 loss to the Jets at Heinz Field on Dec. 19, when Roethlisberger drove Pittsburgh deep into New York's red zone before throwing two incompletions at the end. Before that win, the Jets were 0-6 in the Steel City. Pittsburgh didn't have star safety Troy Polamalu or tight end Heath Miller for that one; both will play Sunday.

The Steelers also won't flinch in the pressure cooker that is the last step to the Super Bowl. For Roethlisberger, Polamalu, Hines Ward, James Harrison, James Farrior and many others, this isn't new territory. It's where they expect to be.

``It doesn't change. The goal every year is to win the championship and this year is no different even if we have two under our belt,'' Farrior says. ``We have guys around here who have never played in a playoff game, or championship game, and we want them to experience that feeling of winning.

``No doubt about it, once you have been across that line and won a championship, you always want that same feeling, always striving to get that ring back.''

Ryan has no rings. The only Jets who do are receiver Santonio Holmes, who caught the winning pass from Roethlisberger in 2009 that lifted the Steelers past Arizona and earned him Super Bowl MVP honors; backup QB Mark Brunell, who held a similar role with New Orleans last year; and right tackle Damien Woody, now on injured reserve.

Otherwise, the Jets haven't played for the biggest prize since Joe Namath guaranteed it a mere 42 years ago.

That might be intimidating for some. Not this bunch.

``The fact we're playing against the Pittsburgh Steelers with about as rich of history as there is in this league, as far as having Super Bowl success, playing them at Pittsburgh, we know it's going to be a huge challenge for us,'' Ryan says. ``There's no doubt.

``But this is, we've called it before, a triple chin strap game, a straight-ahead, no-dodging game. Both teams are built the same.''

Not quite. The Steelers tend to rely on the draft; other than Farrior, Harrison and Ryan Clark, most of their main contributors were draft picks. The Jets do have many key draftees, from DE Shaun Ellis, who had a monster game in New England, to star cornerback Darrelle Revis to 2009 No. 1 Mark Sanchez, who already has four road playoff wins - twice as many total postseason victories as Namath had. A triumph Sunday will set an NFL record for away victories by a quarterback.

But the Jets play the free-agent game and make trades, especially this year in bringing in Holmes, CB Antonio Cromartie - no, he has not badmouthed Roethlisberger or anyone else this week after cursing out Brady before the New England game - LB Jason Taylor and RB LaDainian Tomlinson. Their idea - Ryan's idea - is, simply, it's time to collect some hardware.

``All I want to do is find a way to win, by one point, whatever,'' Ryan says. ``We want to be a part of that. I want that green and white confetti coming down. We want to hold the trophy, the Lamar Hunt Trophy.

``We want the hat, we want the T-shirts. That's our mission. That's what we want to accomplish.''

In a big way, of course.

[StarDust Bum]

Final Four and Super Bowl history

January 22, 2011


PITTSBURGH (AP) - Next step, the Super Bowl.

The NFL's final four has a strong connection to the big game, from the first champion (Packers) to the winner of perhaps the most significant game (Jets). And from possibly the best Super Bowl team (1985 Bears) to the most dominant franchise of the era (Steelers).

Any matchup at Cowboys Stadium next month will feature plenty of history.

So much so that Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy has emphasized wanting to put up a photo of these Packers on the wall next to the other championship teams - including the first two Super Bowl winners (1966 and '67 seasons), and the 1996 squad.

``We've never lost sight of it because it's always right behind me every day when I speak to the team,'' McCarthy said of his Packers, who face 90-year rival Chicago at Soldier Field on Sunday for the NFC title. ``I pointed to that again ... we're halfway there. We talked about 16 quarters as a football team. We've completed eight of them. And we need to capture these four in Chicago, and it puts us closer to getting that picture on the wall.

``It's a goal that's still in front of us and it was a goal when we started and it's still a goal today.''

That the Packers (12-6) face the Bears (12-5) for the 182nd timed with a spot in the Super Bowl on the line adds another historic chapter to the longest series in pro football. Should the Bears win, they would earn their third trip to the big game, one fewer than Green Bay, which is 3-1 in Super Bowls. Chicago is 1-1, having lost to the 2006 Colts.

No one is comparing these Bears to the '85 version that shuffled its way through and over nearly everyone, then pummeled the Patriots 46-10 for the crown. That team is considered by many the best of all the 44 Super Bowl winners.

Should Chicago even approach that level Sunday, it probably will be packing for Big D.

``I think everyone in the locker room knows the magnitude of this game, knows what we're going up against,'' quarterback Jay Cutler said, ``but at the same time we're going to enjoy it, we're going to be loose, we're going to play our game. And we can't worry about what is going to happen afterward if we win, we lose, we just have to go out there and play.

``It's a huge game for Chicago and Green Bay. Just the number of times we've played each other, how familiar the two cities and the two teams are with each other, it's almost like a little mini-Super Bowl. But I know Chicago will be really disappointed if we don't win this game.''

The Steelers have only a 7-7 record in AFC title games. But they are 6-1 in Super Bowls, one more championship than San Francisco and Dallas own. The Steel Curtain carried them to four NFL crowns in the 1970s, and the 2005 and 2008 Steelers won it all.

It's a formidable resume Pittsburgh (13-4) carries into the conference championship matchup with New York (13-5).

``There's a history here you want to live up to, a high level of success,'' linebacker James Farrior said.

The highest level, a place the Jets reached only once. Of course, their 1969 victory over the Colts validated the existence of the AFL, made Joe Namath a superstar, and pretty much established the Super Bowl as something, well, super.

New York has been close four times since: its 1982, 1998 and 2009 teams lost in the AFC championship game. Now, another chance.

``It's great. We expected to be here,'' loquacious, ultraconfident coach Rex Ryan said. ``I don't know if we expected to travel the road we did. That was pretty tough, but we're just the men for the job. We have a locker room of mighty men and we knew what the goal was. We never lost sight of the goal. We always focused on the goal, and here it is.''

Like the Packers, the Jets are a No. 6 seed. Unlike Green Bay, which is favored in the NFC title game, the Jets are underdogs.

``The great thing is there have been a ton of doubters, which you know going along the way that there are going to be doubters,'' Ryan said. ``I keep going back to that Ray Robinson quote about when everybody else doubts you, you have to believe in yourself. That is what this team has. This is what this team does. We've always believed in ourselves. We've always believed we would get to this point and beyond. We're going to find out Sunday.''

[StarDust Bum]

St. Paul bar to roast bear for Packers-Bears game

January 22, 2011


ST. PAUL, Minn. (AP) - A sports bar owner in Minnesota is showing his support for the Green Bay Packers in this weekend's game against the Chicago Bears in a very literal way - by roasting a bear.

Blake Montpetit, the co-owner of Tiffany Sports Lounge in St. Paul, says he plans to cook a 180-pound black bear in a pig-roaster over hickory and charcoal on Sunday. He says his cousin shot it in northern Wisconsin during bear hunting season, which runs in September and October, and then froze it.

Montpetit says he planned to serve the meat to customers, but the state health department rejected the plan because the meat is unprocessed. Instead, customers can take photos with the roasting bear.

After the game, the meat will go to his cousin's party in Somerset, Wis.

What does bear meat taste like?

[BillMill71]

Good Luck SDB

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

01/23/11 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail


Came up a bit short on the Jets game but i'll take days like this all the time................