The Bums NFC/AFC Title Games Best Bets- New, Notes, Etc. !

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NFL Playoff Odds: Bears, Packers for NFC title

The 182nd meeting between border rivals Green Bay and Chicago takes place Sunday at noon PT on FOX at Solider Field.

Few, if any, of their games have been more important. At stake is the NFC championship and a trip to the Super Bowl.

Oddsmakers at the Las Vegas Hilton and TheGreek.com opened the Packers as three-point road favorites with added juice and an ‘over/under’ of 44. Some other places, including MGM Mirage and Station Casinos, opened the Packers as 3 ½-point favorites.

Green Bay certainly is riding a lot of momentum. The Packers are the ‘it’ team right now. But do they deserve to be favored?

The Bears are the healthier team, have covered both meetings versus Green Bay and hold a strong special teams edge with dangerous kick/punt returner Devin Hester.

Quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler may hold the answer.

Rodgers has been sensational with 11 touchdowns and only one interception in his last four games. Cutler is streaky and lately he’s been on with a quarterback rating above 100 in five of his last seven games.

Rodgers takes good care of the ball. Cutler, though, was picked off 16 times during the regular season in 15 games. Green Bay ranked sixth in takeaways with 32 during the regular season.

The Packers defense held Michael Vick in check in their 21-16 wild-card road win against Philadelphia as one-point ‘dogs. Atlanta could manage just 14 points on offense against Green Bay last week.

Green Bay allowed just 45 yards on the ground to Atlanta and sacked Matt Ryan five times in its 48-21 victory as two-point road underdogs. That was Green Bay’s highest-scoring playoff game in its history.

Despite losing six contributors on defense for the season, the Packers still finished second in fewest points allowed at 15 per game and ranked fifth in total defense and pass defense.

No cornerback is playing better than Tramon Williams, who has picked off three passes the last two weeks.

Thanks to creative defensive coordinator Dom Capers, the Packers’ defense is diverse and unpredictable. Green Bay confused Vick by not blitzing more and bothered Ryan by frequently blitzing.

Chicago has gotten big years from Julius Peppers, Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher.

Still, the Bears have allowed an average of 31.2 points in their last four home games. These matchups have been from late November on when winter conditions makes the traction slick on the grass field at Solider Field. This has worked against Chicago’s defense, which relies on quickness rather than brawn.

The Packers have survived elimination games the past four weeks. This is their third consecutive road game. However, it’s only a short distance from Green Bay to Chicago. The Packers are 26-12-1 ATS in their past 39 road matchups.

The Bears were idle two weeks ago courtesy of winning the NFC North with an 11-5 mark. The Bears built a 35-10 lead on Seattle in last week’s divisional round matchup, winning 35-24 as 10-point home favorites.

Unlike the Packers, which lost 15 players to injuries for the season, the Bears are remarkably healthy. Chicago has won eight of 10 games since its regular-season bye.

One of those losses came to Green Bay, 10-3, during the last week of the regular season. Coach Lovie Smith, to his credit, played his starters and went all out despite the game not meaning anything to Chicago. The Packers were 11-point favorites with the combined 13 points going well ‘under’ the 43 ½-point total.

Chicago also covered in the first meeting upsetting the Packers, 20-17, in Week 3 as three-point home ‘dogs. The combined 37 points dipped ‘under’ the 45 ½-point total. The last six games in the series have gone ‘under.’

The Packers outgained the Bears by 103 yards, but allowed a 62-yard punt return touchdown by Hester and committed a franchise-worse 18 penalties, including one that wiped out a touchdown.

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Las Vegas Betting Notes

January 17, 2011

With the two number one seeds eliminated and only four teams left, the sentimental choice to win the Super Bowl now is the sixth seeded Green Bay Packers led by their rising star, Aaron Rodgers. Of course, fans from the other three teams would disagree, but fans of other teams who have been eliminated can’t help but root for the quarterback who has created his own niche on a team that was so long associated by Brett Favre.
It’s hard not to root for Rodgers just from the aspect of how tough of a situation he was put in three years ago when the whole Favre soap opera started. Rodgers didn’t say much and just played the game, while Favre’s true nature became apparent to all in his final year.

We’ve seen glimpses of greatness out of Rodgers in the past, but nothing like what we saw last week on the stage of the playoffs where he completed 31 of 36 passes for 336 yards and 3 touchdowns in Atlanta. At times, while he was dodging defenders in the pocket and feeling pressure with eyes in the back of his head, scrambling around, I thought I was watching Roger Staubach back there, another quarterback who wore number 12.

The Las Vegas sportsbooks don’t get caught up in sentiment, but rather cold hard facts when creating their lines, yet they too have been greatly swayed by the impressive Packers in their last two games. It was surprising enough when the Packers were a short 1-point underdog at the top seeded Falcons, but this week they are 3 ½-point favorites on the road at Chicago for the NFC Championship game.

The Packers have been placed as the 8-to-5 favorite (Bet $100 to win $160) to win the Super Bowl at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book despite a higher seed such as the Steelers (2/1) still active. The Hilton’s Jeff Sherman believes the Packers would be a pick’em against the Steelers and minus-2 ½ against the Jets, but also said that the line would drastically change by what happens Sunday. Should one game produce a blow out while the other plays a tight one, it will be reflected greatly in the Super Bowl line.

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Bears are HDs, Steelers -3.5
January 17, 2011

Chicago will be at home for the NFC Championship Game, but Green Bay will be favored after trouncing the NFC's top-seeded Falcons in Atlanta on Saturday night. Most books opened the Packers as three-point favorites with a total of 43 1/2.
These bitter division rivals played a pair of nail-biters in the regular season, splitting the two games with the home team coming out on top each time.

About an hour after the numbers were posted, the early money was coming on Green Bay. Most books were remaining on the key number of three, but forcing bettors to lay a minus-120 price to back the Packers. A few books went ahead and moved to 3 1/2, while the total was in the 43-44 range.

Lovie Smith's team held off a late Seattle charge to win 35-24 as a 10-point home favorite. The 59 combined points got 'over' the 42 1/2-point total.

In the AFC Championship Game, Pittsburgh will take on the Jets at Heinz Field. Most books opened the Steelers as 3 1/2-point favorites with a total of 38 1/2.

Rex Ryan's team went into Foxboro and beat top-seeded New England on Sunday in the AFC semifinals. The Jets captured a 28-21 win as 9 1/2-point underdogs. They hooked up money-line backers with a lucrative plus-320 payout (risk $100 to win $320).

Gamblers on the 'under' suffered a frustrating loss, as Tom Brady's touchdown pass to Deion Branch with 24 seconds remaining accounted for the final score. The 49 points surged 'over' the total (45) with 17 points scored after the two-minute warning.

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We are the Champions
January 18, 2011


It’s Championship Week in the NFL and with it two teams are one win away from playing in Super Bowl XLV in Arlington, February 6. Like most football fans nationwide, everyone has an opinion on the teams that figure to advance. Our database does, too.

There are generally two schools of thought when it comes to handicapping the final four teams on this week’s card. You can look at them statistically, or you can analyze them technically.

While having varying opinions on which of the four teams will and advance, and why, handicappers alike often times speak in foreign tongues. With reasons ranging from players and coaches to fundamentals to situations, the views are many.

But since our database has a language of its own, we are limited to asking questions and reading answers germane to our query. Here are answers to five queries we posed to the database and the answers we found surrounding NFL Championship games. All results are ATS (Against The Spread) and since 1980, unless noted otherwise.

Q – How have home teams fared in this game?

A – NFC hosts are 22-8 SU and 18-12 ATS, while AFC home teams are 19-11 SU and 16-14 ATS.

Q – Who is the better money winner, favorites or dogs?

A – Favorites have owned the edge, going 40-19 SU and 33-26 ATS, including 31-17 SU and 30-18 ATS when laying less than 10 points.

Q – How do teams that own the better record perform?

A – As the majority of time these are almost always the home team, the record for teams with a better win percentage are solid, going 39-16 SU and 32-23 ATS. When installed as dogs or favorites of less than 10 points these better record teams are 29-15 ATS.

Q – How do road teams playing off a road game fare?

A – Not all that well, as you might imagine. These guys are just 9-21 SU and 12-18 ATS and 3-11 SU and 4-10 ATS when playing off back-to-back road games.

Q – How has the Over/Under fared in these games?

A – Surprisingly, these games have had a tendency to fly over the total in this round, going 26-15-1 ‘Over’ in games since 1990. More specific, games in which the posted totals have been at the opposite end of the ladder have gone ‘Over’ in title games to a greater degree as those with a total of more than 46 points have played ‘Over’ the number in eight of 10 occurrences, while totals of less than 41 have gone 11-4-1 to the ‘Over’ as well.

There you have it. The database has spoken. Somewhere between its language and yours is a winner or two on this week’s card. Enjoy the games…

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NFL Conference Championship matchups and odds

Sunday, Jan. 23

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+3, 44), 3 p.m. ET

The two NFC North rivals go head-to-head again with a ticket to the Super Bowl in Dallas on the line. Chicago manhandled Seattle for the game in its opening playoff game, but a late surge from the Seahawks had Bears bettors on the edge of their seats until the end of a 35-24 win. Chicago was set as a 10-point favorite.

Green Bay went into Atlanta and blew out the No. 1-seed Falcons 48-21 as a 1-point underdog. Aaron Rogers threw three touchdowns and completed 31 of his 36 pass attempts for 366 yards. Chicago and Green Bay split their two meetings in the regular season.

New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 38) 6:30 p.m. ET

The Jets said they just wanted one more crack at the New England Patriots and they took full advantage of that opportunity, dropping the Pats 28-21 as a 9.5-point underdog at Foxboro. The Steelers earned a tough 31-24 comeback win over the Baltimore Ravens as a 3.5-point favorite.

New York downed Pittsburgh 22-17 in early December in the Steel City as a 3.5-point underdog. Mark Sanchez threw for 170 yards and ran for a touchdown in that game, but no Jets running back had more than 49 rushing yards against the Steelers' tough defense.

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NFL Playoff Betting: Packers top futures odds


Believe it or not, there are only three games left in the NFL betting season this year, and there are just four teams left standing that can win football's most coveted prize. The Lombardi Trophy will belong to either the Green Bay Packers, Pittsburgh Steelers, New York Jets or Chicago Bears.

Today at Don Best, we're taking a look at the four teams and their odds to win the Super Bowl courtesy of 5Dimes.com, and what each team really needs to do in order to win Super Bowl XLV.

Green Bay Packers (+175 at 5Dimes)
If you want to talk about a team coming full circle, this is absolutely it. The Packers were trendy choices to win the Super Bowl at the outset of the season, because everyone loved QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Ryan Grant and especially that defense coached by Dom Capers. The Pack sort of fell off just a tad when they were just 8-6 on the year, especially knowing that
Rodgers was dealing with a concussion and Grant was in a boot and done
for the year.

However, since that loss on Sunday Night Football to the New England Patriots, it has been all good for the men in green and gold, and now they are back on top once again as the favorites to win it all. Green Bay may be the No. 6 seed in the NFC, but the Packers are favored against the Bears even though they are on the road this weekend.

Rodgers has six TDs and no picks so far in the playoffs, and RB James Starks has given the team a lift on the ground. If those things hold true, we know that the defense is good enough to contain anyone in the league. Green Bay has all of the goods to win it all.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+205 at 5Dimes)
The Steelers have a bit of a chip on their shoulder right now, as they are going to try to avenge that loss to the Jets earlier this year at home.

Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger just continues to make the big plays when needed, and the defense is forcing turnovers left and right. Even when things looked grim against the Baltimore Ravens last week, that 'D' came up with three turnovers in the second half to help ice the game.

This is a team with a ton of experience, and it is the only participant in any of the last three Super Bowls to still be standing. Interestingly enough, this is the only team left in the tournament that has won a Super Bowl since the Packers did it in 1997.

New York Jets (+415 at 5Dimes)
Don't rest on the Jets. This seems like a team that we have heard a lot about this year, but in fairness to head coach Rex Ryan and company, New York can walk the walk just like it talks the talk.

Quarterback Mark Sanchez has taken care of the football and outdueled two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks already in these playoffs in Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. The defense has schemed perfectly for these two playoff games, and you know that Ryan is going to have his 'D' humming once again in the Steel City.

Though we know that New York knows what it takes to beat the Steelers, it doesn't know what it is like to beat the Bears or the Packers, both of which beat it in the regular season.

Chicago Bears (+550 at 5Dimes)
All season long, we've been hearing what the Bears can't do. They weren't supposed to be good enough to win the NFC North. They only got lucky in their first playoff game, as they had to take on the Seattle Seahawks, arguably the worst team ever to be in the postseason in the NFL. They don't have a quarterback that can take care of the football. They can't run the ball. Their defense is a product of a relatively soft schedule.

Balderdash!

Chicago is getting no respect even though it is at home this week against the Packers, a team that it played very well against this season. The Bears also beat the Jets, and we tend to believe that getting over 5/1 on these guys to win it all is a massive steal.

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NFL Playoff Odds: Jets, Steelers meet again


The New York Jets and Pittsburgh Steelers meet for the second time in five weeks when they battle in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday evening.

Bookmaker.com has Pittsburgh as 3 ½-point home ‘chalk’ with a total of 38 ½-points. The Jets are plus 165 to pull off the upset.

New York (13-5 straight-up, 11-7 against the spread) is still riding the emotional high of its 28-21 win at New England as 9 ½-point ‘dogs. All the pre-game trash talk done by coach Rex Ryan and the players seem destined to blow up in their face, but they backed up every word.

The 49 combined points went ‘over’ the 45-point total. The ‘over’ is 9-1 in New York’s road games this year.

The Jets are building a reputation as road warriors (8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS this year). They’re looking to pull off the road trifecta by beating elite quarterbacks Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger in consecutive weeks. They will certainly have earned their Super Bowl berth if they do.

New York is 4-1 SU and ATS in road playoff games over the last two years. It led at halftime (17-13) in last year’s AFC title game in Indianapolis before losing 30-17 as eight-point underdogs.

The Jets are trying to become the third wild-card team to win the Super Bowl recently in addition to Pittsburgh (2005) and the New York Giants (2007).

Pittsburgh (13-4 SU, 11-6 ATS) also beat a fierce division rival last week, 31-24 over Baltimore as 3 ½-point home favorites. The game swung on turnovers with Baltimore building a 21-7 halftime lead thanks to two Pittsburgh miscues. The Ravens returned the favor (and more) with three second-half turnovers leading to the stunning comeback.

The Steelers may have been somewhat fortunate, but they helped create the mistakes and are a ferocious team defensively. Pittsburgh is now 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in its last eight games, only losing outright to the Jets (22-17 as 3 ½-point favorites). More on that game below.

Pittsburgh is playing in its third AFC title game in six years (winning the Super Bowl the two previous times). It won and ‘covered’ the conference title game at home against Baltimore two years ago, 23-14 as six-point favorites. Ryan was the Ravens defensive coordinator in that game.

During the 2005 season, Pittsburgh won in Denver 34-17 as three-points ‘dogs to advance to the ‘Big Game.’

The first meeting between New York and Pittsburgh was back on December 19. The Jets were reeling after consecutive losses at New England (45-3) and home to Miami (10-6). There was even talk that Ryan’s bunch could slump its way out of the playoff picture.

Instead, the Jets got an opening kickoff return for a touchdown from Brad Smith, giving them instant confidence. Pittsburgh battled back for a 17-10 lead in the third quarter, but New York scored 12 unanswered points to end the game. Roethlisberger and company were stopped at the Jets 10-yard line at the final gun.

Pittsburgh lost despite having the advantage in rushing (146-106) and total yards (377-276). It was playing without safety Troy Polamalu and the rushing yards allowed were way above its top-ranked regular season average (62.8 YPG). Baltimore rushed for just 35 yards last week.

Mark Sanchez threw for only 170 yards against Pittsburgh, but that’s an acceptable figure as long as he doesn’t turn it over and the rushing game is working. Sanchez has been held just under 200 yards in both playoff contests, but had a 127.3 quarterback rating last week in badly outplaying Tom Brady.

The Jets defense is feeling very good about itself after its last two games, but Roethlisberger provides a different challenge than Manning or Brady as he’s strong enough to break away from the pass rush and still make plays down the field.

Interestingly, the Jets have publicly said they’re not trash talking this week. Perhaps they don’t want to rattle the cage of a team they recently beat at home.

Brad Smith (groin injury) is questionable this week. His ability to run the wildcat wasn’t missed against New England, but could be a factor this week. Pittsburgh has a lot of players banged up, but only defensive end Aaron Smith (triceps) is expected to be out. He hasn’t played since October.

Kickoff from Heinz Field will be 3:30 p.m. (PT) on CBS. Early weather reports have it windy and temperatures only in the high teens.

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Trends favor Home squads

January 18, 2011


NFC Championship History - AFC Championship History

As we enter conference championship weekend, there are a few specific trends that merit review. "Intermediate/high" favorites (those laying between 7-9.5 points) are 15-4 vs. the number in conference championships since 1970. Included in those ranks were last year's Colts, a 30-17 winner over the Jets. Double-digit favorites, however, are only 4-8 vs. the line.

Home teams are unbeaten straight up in conference title games the past two years and have won better than two-thirds of the time since the merger (54 of 80). Conference title "totals" have also trended "over" (7-1) the last four seasons.

We also must again reference the many lopsided conference title scores from the past and should offer caution to handicappers whose initial instincts are often to side with a high quality team in what is a rare underdog role.

Although we have been treated to some compelling conference title games in recent years, final margins have still historically drifted into double digits in this round, including last year's aforementioned AFC finale.

Remember, almost half of the conference title games since the 1970 merger (38 of 80) have been decided by 14 points or more, with nearly two-thirds (53 of 80) being decided by double digits.

Following is a list of point-spread breakdowns and results of AFC & NFC Championships since 1970.

CATEGORY... RESULT

Favorites/Underdogs (one pick 'em)... 43-34-2
Favorites straight up... 52-27
Favored by 1-3 points... 12-9
Favored by 3.5-6.5 points... 12-13-2
Favored by 7-9.5 points... 15-4
Favored by 10 or more... 4-8

Home teams straight up... 54-26
Home teams vs. spread... 45-33-2
Home favorites vs. spread... 37-26-2
Home underdogs vs. spread... 8-6
Home pick'em vs. spread... 0-1

Overs/unders (since 1986)... 28-20

MARGINS OF VICTORY

1-3 points... 10
4-6 points... 10
7-10 points... 11
11-13 points... 11
14 or more... 38

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NFC Championship History

Year Matchup Score Line ATS

2009-10 Minnesota at New Orleans 31-28 4, 54 Underdog, Over
2008-09 Philadelphia at Arizona 32-25 3.5, 47 Underdog, Over
2007-08 N.Y. Giants at Green Bay 23-20 8, 41 Underdog, Over
2006-07 New Orleans at Chicago 34-14 2.5, 42.5 Favorite, Over
2005-06 Carolina at Seattle 34-14 3.5, 43.5 Favorite, Over
2004-05 Atlanta at Philadelphia 27-10 5.5, 37.5 Favorite, Under
2003-04 Carolina at Philadelphia 14-3 4, 36.5 Underdog, Under
2002-03 Tampa Bay at Philadelphia 27-10 4, 34 Underdog, Under
2001-02 Philadelphia at St. Louis 29-24 10.5, 49 Underdog, Over
2000-01 Minnesota at N.Y. Giants 41-0 2.5, 42 Favorite, Under
1999-00 Tampa Bay at St. Louis 11-6 14.5, 44 Underdog, Under
1998-99 Atlanta at Minnesota 30-27 10.5, 55 Underdog, Over
1997-98 Green Bay at San Francisco 23-10 2.5, 44 Favorite, Under
1996-97 Carolina at Green Bay 30-13 12.5, 38 Favorite, Over
1995-96 Green Bay at Dallas 38-27 8.5, 50 Favorite, Over
1994-95 Dallas at San Francisco 38-28 7.5, 48 Favorite, Over
1993-94 San Francisco at Dallas 38-21 3, 47.5 Favorite, Over
1992-93 Dallas at San Francisco 30-20 4, 37 Underdog, Over
1991-92 Detroit at Washington 41-10 13, 43 Favorite, Over
1990-91 N.Y. Giants at San Francisco 15-13 8, 37 Underdog, Under
1989-90 L.A. Rams at San Francisco 30-3 7, 46 Favorite, Over
1988-89 San Francisco at Chicago 28-3 1, 34.5 Underdog, Under
1987-88 Minnesota at Washington 17-10 3.5 Favorite
1986-87 Washington at N.Y. Giants 17-0 7.5 Favorite
1985-86 L.A. Rams at Chicago 24-0 10.5 Favorite
1984-85 Chicago at San Francisco 23-0 9 Favorite
1983-84 San Francisco at Washington 24-21 10.5 Underdog
1982-83 Dallas at Washington 31-17 2 Underdog
1981-82 Dallas at San Francisco 28-27 3 Underdog
1980-81 Dallas at Philadelphia 20-7 1 Underdog
1979-80 L.A. Rams at Tampa Bay 9-0 3.5 Favorite
1978-79 Dallas at L.A. Rams 28-0 3.5 Favorite
1977-78 Minnesota at Dallas 26-3 11.5 Favorite
1976-77 L.A. Rams at Minnesota 24-13 4.5 Favorite
1975-76 Dallas at L.A. Rams 37-7 6 Underdog
1974-75 L.A. Rams at Minnesota 14-10 4 PUSH
1973-74 Minnesota at Dallas 27-10 1 Underdog
1972-73 Dallas at Washington 26-3 3 Favorite
1971-72 San Francisco at Dallas 14-3 7.5 Favorite
1970-71 Dallas at San Francisco 17-10 4 Underdog



** Winner listed in Bold

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AFC Championship History
Year Matchup Score Line ATS

2009-10 N.Y. Jets at Indianapolis 30-17 8, 40 Favorite, Over
2008-09 Baltimore at Pittsburgh 23-14 6, 35 Favorite, Over
2007-08 San Diego at New England 21-12 14, 48 Underdog, Under
2006-07 New England at Indianapolis 38-34 3.5, 47 Favorite-Over
2005-06 Pittsburgh at Denver 34-17 3, 41 Underdog-Over
2004-05 New England at Pittsburgh 41-27 3, 35 Favorite, Over
2003-04 Indianapolis at New England 24-14 3, 43 Favorite, Under
2002-03 Tennessee at Oakland 41-24 8, 47 Favorite-Over
2001-02 New England at Pittsburgh 24-17 10, 37 Underdog, Over
2000-01 Baltimore at Oakland 16-3 6, 36.5 Underdog, Under
1999-00 Tennessee at Jacksonville 33-14 7, 40.5 Underdog, Over
1998-99 N.Y. Jets at Denver 23-10 9, 51.5 Favorite, Under
1997-98 Denver at Pittsburgh 24-21 2.5, 41 Favorite, Over
1996-97 Jacksonville at New England 20-6 7, 44 Favorite, Under
1995-96 Indianapolis at Pittsburgh 20-16 12, 41 Underdog, Under
1994-95 San Diego at Pittsburgh 17-13 9, 35 Underdog, Under
1993-94 Kansas City at Buffalo 30-13 3, 38 Favorite, Under
1992-93 Buffalo at Miami 29-10 2, 41 Favorite, Under
1991-92 Denver at Buffalo 10-7 11, 45 Underdog, Under
1990-91 L.A. Raiders at Buffalo 51-3 7, 37 Favorite, Over
1989-90 Cleveland at Denver 37-21 3.5, 40 Favorite, Over
1988-89 Buffalo at Cincinnati 21-10 4, 40.5 Favorite, Under
1987-88 Cleveland at Denver 38-33 2.5, 44.5 Favorite, Over
1986-87 Denver at Cleveland 23-20 3, 38 Underdog, Over
1985-86 New England at Miami 31-14 5.5 Underdog
1984-85 Pittsburgh at Miami 45-28 9.5 Favorite
1983-84 Seattle at L.A. Raiders 30-14 7.5 Favorite
1982-83 N.Y. Jets at Miami 14-0 2 Favorite
1981-82 San Diego at Cincinnati 27-7 4.5 Favorite
1980-81 Oakland at San Diego 34-27 4 Underdog
1979-80 Houston at Pittsburgh 27-13 9.5 Favorite
1978-79 Houston at Pittsburgh 34-5 7 Favorite
1977-78 Oakland at Denver 20-17 3.5 Underdog
1976-77 Pittsburgh at Oakland 24-7 4.5 Underdog
1975-76 Oakland at Pittsburgh 16-10 6 PUSH
1974-75 Pittsburgh at Oakland 24-13 5.5 Underdog
1973-74 Oakland at Miami 27-10 6.5 Favorite
1972-73 Miami at Pittsburgh 21-17 2.5 Favorite
1971-72 Baltimore at Miami 21-0 1.5 Favorite
1970-71 Oakland at Baltimore 27-17 1 Underdog



** Winner listed in Bold

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Conference Championships

January 19, 2011


We're down to four teams left in the NFL playoffs with each team sporting a quarterback under the age of 28 as two spots for Super Bowl XLV are on the line. The Jets and Steelers meet for the second time in a month at Heinz Field for the AFC title, while the Packers and Bears redefine the "Black and Blue" division with their third meeting this season and the NFC Championship on the line.

Packers at Bears - 3:00 PM EST

These two rivals meet for the first time in the postseason since 1941 as the Bears aim for their first Super Bowl appearance in five seasons. Green Bay goes for its third consecutive road victory while making its second NFC Championship appearance since 2007, when the Packers lost in overtime to the Giants in Brett Favre's final game in the Green and Gold.

With Favre off the map, Aaron Rodgers has assumed the role of a new playoff hero for the Packers by tossing six touchdowns and no interceptions in wins over the Eagles and Falcons. Rodgers threw for just 180 yards in Green Bay's Wild Card victory at Philadelphia, but his three touchdown passes helped the Packers cash as one-point underdogs.

Green Bay was in the same 'dog spot at the Georgia Dome last Saturday night, as the Packers dominated the top-seeded Falcons, 48-21. Rodgers chopped up the Atlanta secondary with 366 yards passing, while tossing three more touchdowns as well as running in a score in the rout. Since throwing nine interceptions the first seven weeks of the season, the former Cal standout has thrown just two interceptions over the last nine games.

Rodgers faces a Bears' defense that finished the season ranked 20th against the pass (224.3 yards/game) and 2nd in the league stopping the run (90.1 yards/game). Chicago eliminated an upstart Seattle squad in the Divisional Playoffs, 35-24, barely covering as 10-point favorites. The final score made things look closer than what was witnessed in the first three quarters when the Bears led the Seahawks, 28-3. Seattle scored two touchdowns in the final three minutes to make the score look more respectable, but a Jay Cutler to Kellen Davis touchdown strike with five minutes left definitely upset 'under' players as the game cashed the 'over' of 42 ½.

The Bears controlled the clock last Sunday by having the ball for over 37 minutes, while Cutler was interception-free in his first playoff victory. The ex-Bronco cut his interception total from 26 in 2009 to just 16 in 2010, as Chicago improved to 8-0 SU and 6-1-1 ATS this season when Cutler throws at least two touchdown passes. Even though Chicago began the season as a solid 'under' team, the Bears have cashed the 'over' in each of the last four games at Soldier Field.

The two teams split the two regular season meetings with the home club winning each time. The Bears rallied for a 20-17 victory on Monday Night football in Week 3, as Chicago overcame an early 10-0 deficit. The special teams lifted the Bears thanks to Devin Hester's 62-yard punt return and a pair of Robbie Gould field goals to pick up the outright win as three-point home underdogs. Green Bay dominated the game from a yardage standpoint, 379-276, while the Packers held the ball for over 35 minutes.

Mike McCarthy's team was in desperation mode the last time these rivals met in Week 17 at Lambeau Field. The Bears had nothing to play for as they the second seed wrapped up in the NFC Playoffs, while the Packers were playing their second consecutive "elimination" game after blowing out the Giants in Week 16 to stay alive. Green Bay failed to cover as 11-point 'chalk' in a 10-3 triumph, as the Packers received two big pass plays from Rodgers to Greg Jennings to set up the two scores.

The Packers are listed as 3 ½-point favorites, becoming the first road 'chalk' in a conference championship game since Philadelphia (at Arizona) in 2008. The total is set at 43 ½ with several 44's lingering out there, while temperatures are expected to be in the low 20's. The game kicks off at 3:00 PM EST and will be televised nationally on FOX.

Jets at Steelers - 6:30 PM EST

The Super Bowl card will be filled out late Sunday night following this epic showdown as New York plays in its second AFC Title Game in as many seasons. The Steelers are no stranger to this game, participating in the AFC Championship for the fourth time since 2004 and the second instance under Mike Tomlin. On the other side, Rex Ryan is attempting to get the Jets in the Super Bowl for the first time since way back in 1969 when Joe Namath helped upset the Colts, 16-7 as 18-point underdogs.

The Jets' road has not been an easy one by any stretch after knocking out Indianapolis and New England in the first two rounds. New York got a modicum of revenge in each triumph after the Jets were eliminated by the Colts in last season's AFC Title game with a 17-16 victory at Lucas Oil Stadium as one-point underdogs. Antonio Cromartie's big kickoff return following the go-ahead field goal by Indianapolis gave the Jets excellent field position, as Nick Folk's 32-yard field goal at the gun helped New York advance.

All the talk heading into the Divisional Playoff tilt was coming from the Jets' side as they looked to avenge a 45-3 beatdown in Foxboro on a cold Monday night in Week 13. New York responded to the challenge by eliminating New England, 28-21 as 9 ½-point underdogs to capture its fourth road playoff win in five tries. Mark Sanchez overcame two horrible efforts his previous two starts at Gillette Stadium (1 TD, 7 INT) with a three-touchdown gem as the Pats allowed their most points since Week 11 against Indianapolis (28).

The Steelers needed a massive rally against their rival last Saturday to shock the Ravens, 31-24 as 3 ½-point favorites to beat Baltimore for the second time this season. Ben Roethlisberger tossed two second-half touchdowns, while Rashard Mendenhall's two-yard plunge with 90 seconds left capped the comeback and gave Pittsburgh its third straight home playoff win. The game flew 'over' the total of 37 ½, as the two teams combined for just 389 yards (PIT - 263, BAL - 126).

These teams just saw each other a little over a month ago at Heinz Field as the Jets upended Steelers, 22-17 as 3 ½-point 'dogs. Troy Polamalu sat out that loss with a sprained ankle suffered the week before against Cincinnati as the Steelers' defense limited the Jets to 277 yards of offense. Sanchez's bootleg touchdown run on fourth down helped tie the game at 17-17, followed by a Folk field goal and late safety to put the win away for the Jets.

The Jets have been nearly an automatic 'over' play on the road this season, cashing in nine of 10 games. The lone 'under' hit in the Wild Card win at Indianapolis, as the total closed at 44. In games with the total listed at 40 or less, the Jets compiled an 8-2 'over' mark, including the closing number of 36 at Pittsburgh in Week 15. Pittsburgh is a coin-toss proposition to the 'over' at home with Big Ben under center, going 4-3 at Heinz Field since his suspension ended after Week 4.

All three of Pittsburgh's home losses this season came against playoff teams (Jets, Patriots, and Ravens), while owning a 6-3 ATS mark in Western Pennsylvania. The Jets continue to cash at a frantic rate on the road, putting together a 7-3 ATS ledger on the highway, including a 6-2 ATS record as an away underdog. Under Ryan (and Sanchez), the Jets have covered 67% of their road contests (14-7 ATS), as opposed to a pedestrian 8-8 ATS mark at home the last two seasons.

The Steelers are listed as 3 ½-point favorites for the second straight week, as Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS the last seven postseason games since 2005. The total is set at 38 ½, while temperatures are expected to settle in the low 20's. Kickoff is set for 6:30 PM EST and will be televised nationally on CBS.

[StarDust Bum]

Rex out of prediction business

January 19, 2011


With his son out of the prediction business this week, Buddy Ryan jumped in feet first.

``Jets and Bears,'' he answered quickly, sounding more like the horseman and handicapper he's become in retirement than the head coach and revolutionary defensive mind that Ryan was for a lifetime before that.

``The Jets gave me my first job and my son's the coach, so it makes that one easy,'' he said about New York's AFC matchup at Pittsburgh.

Picking the Bears over the Packers wasn't much harder, for many of the same reasons. Ryan served as defensive coordinator for Green Bay's NFC division rivals in Minnesota and Chicago after leaving New York - and before the first of his two head-coaching stints in Philadelphia.

After playing the Packers twice every year over that stretch, Ryan says he can't help but harbor a grudge.

``It was a great rivalry, even when both of us weren't any good,'' he recalled. ``They both have good quarterbacks now, but down deep those games were always about the same thing: who's toughest. At some point, this one probably will be, too.

``The first couple times we went up there, it was easy to be impressed, especially if you were a young coach. There was all this history and tradition, Vince Lombardi and all that,'' Ryan said. ``But after they rubbed it in a few times, it gets under your skin.

``So, yeah,'' he added, ``there were some games when we were more interested in making points than scoring them.''

Ryan once explained his delight in blitzing every opponent relentlessly this way: ``So we could find out who the second-string quarterback was.'' But in a late 1980s regular-season game against the Packers, he seemed determined to go even farther than that.

The Bears led 61-7 late in the game, yet Ryan kept the blitz package going full-tilt against Green Bay's third string. Thirty years later, he couldn't recall the specifics even as he chuckled at the memory.

``Well, I was the defensive coordinator then and that sure sounds like me. But it wasn't my job to take it out. It was their job,'' Ryan said defiantly, ``to do something about it.''

Buddy's proprietary interest in the success of son Rex and his former employers in Chicago extend beyond emotional ties. His trademark defense, named the ``46'' because that was the number frequently blitzing safety Doug Plank wore, operated out of a 4-3 set - four defensive lineman and three linebackers.

Rex Ryan's Jets often line up in a base 3-4 formation, but employ many of the unorthodox schemes Buddy employed to send eight or nine attackers after the quarterback. The Steelers and Packers play a much more traditional version of the 3-4 defense.

``Both of those defenses do everything well and Capers (Green Bay defensive coordinator Dom) has designed some great ways to send extra guys,'' Ryan said. ``But I got to be honest - I like complicated, I like going after the quarterback just about every time, and it looks like Rex mostly does, too.

``And the way the league has set up the rules to protect those quarterbacks these days,'' he added, ``you got to make sure you get your shots in every chance you get.''

Nobody ever called Buddy or Rex conservative, but the elder Ryan said he understood why his son is keeping a relatively low profile this week.

``I said last week he was smart to let his players talk. You need something some weeks to get them get riled up. But underneath, I think it was personal between the Jets and Patriots,'' Ryan said. ``It's a little different between them and the Steelers.''

Buddy said he never minded being the villain, and he doubts Rex does, either.

``Look, both my boys know how this thing is supposed to be run,'' he said. ``They lived it growing up.''

Rex and his twin brother, Rob, who just took over as defensive coordinator in Dallas, have followed their father through coaching stints in a half-dozen NFL towns.

``They know you move a lot and get booed a lot. They know you only get so many chances,'' the patriarch said. ``Sometimes, you got something up your sleeve, other times you play it straight. Both these (championship games) have enough going on around them as it is.

``It might be quiet all week,'' Ryan said finally, ``probably because there's not going to be a moment's peace for anybody once they start it up Sunday.''

[StarDust Bum]

Can both No. 6 seeds make Super Bowl?

January 19, 2011


As illogical at it seems, a 6-6 parlay might be a winner in this weekend's championship games. The Packers and Jets aren't run-of-the-mill wild cards.

Does that mean a pair of non-division winners are headed to the Super Bowl? Read on.


Yes, the sixth-seeded Packers are favored at Soldier Field in the second postseason matchup of these 90-year rivals and first since 1941. That's how impressive Aaron Rodgers and his team have been in the last month, with wins over the Giants and Bears at Lambeau Field to get into the playoffs, then victories at Philadelphia and No. 1 seed Atlanta in the playoffs.

Rodgers is performing at a championship level, and he has the surrounding talent to keep this surge going. Green Bay (12-6) nearly won at Chicago in Week 3, stymied by a team-record 18 penalties as much as anything. The Packers have been far more efficient recently, with Rodgers regularly finding his impressive receiving corps, led by Greg Jennings, Donald Driver and James Jones. They will present matchup problems for Chicago's cornerbacks.

Green Bay's defense also has become formidable, just as dominating as Chicago's can be. The Bears (12-5) have playmakers Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs, Julius Peppers and Israel Idonije. The Packers counter with Clay Matthews, Charles Woodson, Tramon Williams and B.J. Raji.

Perhaps the Bears' difference maker will be the dynamic Devin Hester. The record-setting kick returner has a strong history in the postseason, and it would be wise for the Packers to avoid kicking his way.

The last time the Bears got this far was 2006, when they won the NFC title, then lost in the Super Bowl to Indianapolis. Green Bay was in the 2007 championship matchup, losing to the Giants - a wild-card.

Going with the wild card again.

PACKERS, 23-21


After disposing of Peyton Manning and the Colts, then Tom Brady and the Patriots, the Jets (13-5) try for the trifecta of championship QBs against Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers.

Rex Ryan might be bombastic, but in his two seasons as Jets coach he also has been brilliant, leading them to four road playoff victories in five attempts. Roethlisberger made note of that Wednesday, but veteran receiver Hines Ward mentioned that his quarterback gets away from the rush better and stays up longer when hit than Manning or Brady.

Still, the Steelers want to be a run-first offense and need to prosper on the ground to beat the Jets. New York cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie match up well against Pittsburgh's wideouts, although Ward has a penchant for big plays in the biggest games.

Don't forget that the Steelers are stingier defensively than the Jets, particularly against the run. That means Mark Sanchez, who is rapidly growing into a clutch quarterback, must be as effective as he was in Foxborough, where he threw for three touchdowns. One of those was to Santonio Holmes, the hero of the Steelers' Super Bowl win two years ago and now the Jets' game-breaking receiver.

New York won 22-17 at Heinz Field in December, a game that two key Steelers missed. Star safety Troy Polamalu and TE Heath Miller are back, and the Jets can struggle down the middle covering tight ends.

Are the returns of Polamalu and Miller enough to make up that five-point deficit and spoil a 6 vs. 6 Super Bowl matchup? We think so.

STEELERS, 20-17


RECORD:

Versus spread, 2-2 (overall 132-106-19); Straight up, 2-2 (overall 169-102)

Best Bet: 8-11 against spread, 11-8 straight up.

Upset Special: 11-8 against spread, 11-8 straight up.

[StarDust Bum]

Steelers favored by 3.5 in AFC Championship


AFC Championship
NEW YORK JETS (13-5)
at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (13-4)

Kickoff: Sunday, 6:30 p.m. EDT, Line: Pittsburgh -3.5, Total: 38.5

The Jets seek their first trip to the Super Bowl in 42 years when they travel to Pittsburgh to face a Steelers team that is two wins away from claiming its seventh Super Bowl title. The last time the Jets visited Pittsburgh was one month ago in Week 15. Although the Steelers outgained New York that day, the Jets left town with a 22-17 victory, their first win in eight all-time trips to Pittsburgh. Neither team committed a turnover in that game.

Before the Week 15 meeting, both the Jets and Steelers had combined to go 13 straight quarters without an offensive touchdown. Since that game, New York has been much better on offense, averaging 29.3 PPG in the four contests. QB Mark Sanchez has had his ups-and-downs this year, but he was certainly up for last week’s upset win in New England, completing 64% of his passes for 194 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT. Sanchez is now 4-1 in his playoff career (all on the road) with 922 passing yards, 7 TD and 3 INT in five postseason starts. His only loss was last season’s AFC Championship in Indianapolis where he threw for 257 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT in a 30-17 defeat.

RBs LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene have both been great recently, helping the Jets average 172 rushing YPG in their past four games. Tomlinson has three touchdowns in two weeks and will be fully healthy for the first time in an AFC Championship, after only getting two carries in the conference title loss to New England following the 2007 season. Greene has rushed for 146 yards in the two wins this postseason. The duo combined for 89 yards on 23 carries in the Week 15 win at Pittsburgh. Another big factor in this game is special teams. Brad Smith, who is expected to play despite a groin injury, opened the last game against the Steelers with a 97-yard kickoff return touchdown.

Despite allowing a season-high 106 yards to the Jets, only one other opponent has gained more than 75 rushing yards against Pittsburgh this year (New England, 103). Since the loss to New York, the Steelers have allowed just 50.7 rushing YPG, including holding a quality Ravens rushing offense to 35 yards on 18 carries last week. Safety Troy Polamalu continues to play through a strained Achilles, which is a great sign for Pittsburgh considering the team is 31-8 with Polamalu in the lineup and 6-7 without him since 2008. The Jets also have a great defense that ranks third in the league in rushing yards (91 YPG) and sixth in passing yards allowed (201 YPG).

Like Sanchez, Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger has also had a successful postseason career with a 9-2 record and two Super Bowl rings. His stats in the 11 games aren’t stellar (88.7 QB rating, 17 TD, 12 INT), but they have been good enough to win consistently. Roethlisberger threw for 226 yards and two touchdowns in the third quarter of last week’s win over Baltimore, giving him 5 TD and just 1 INT in his past four postseason games. But Roethlisberger averaged a season-low 6.0 yards per attempt in his last meeting with New York. RB Rashard Mendenhall ran for 99 yards on just 17 carries against the Jets, but has averaged a mere 49.0 rushing YPG in his three games since. However, Mendenhall does have four touchdown runs in his past two games.

Pittsburgh is 6-3 SU and ATS at home this year, while the Jets are 8-2 SU (7-3 ATS) on the road. This four-star FoxSheets trend likes New York to cover the spread.

Play Against - Home favorites (PITTSBURGH) - revenging a loss against opponent, after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite. (27-4 over the last 10 seasons.) (87.1%, +22.6 units. Rating = 4*).

The Jets are 9-1 Over in road games this season and this four-star FoxSheets trend also expects the game to finish Over the meager Total.

Play Over - Any team against the total (NY JETS) - after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games against opponent after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games. (34-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (81%, +25.2 units. Rating = 4*).

[StarDust Bum]

Chicago is home underdog vs. Green Bay


NFC Championship
GREEN BAY PACKERS (12-6)
at CHICAGO BEARS (12-5)

Kickoff: Sunday, 3:00 p.m. EDT, Line: Green Bay -3.5, Total: 43

Sixth-seeded Green Bay looks to knock off its third straight top-three seeded team in the conference when it travels to Soldier Field for an NFC Championship matchup with the Bears. Chicago won the first meeting this season, 20-17 in Week 3 thanks to the Packers team-record 18 penalties. Green Bay won the rematch 10-3 in Week 17 to earn a playoff berth. These NFC North Division foes have not met in the playoffs since 1941.

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has been the story of the playoffs with seven total touchdowns (six passing, one rushing) in his two road wins at Philadelphia and Atlanta. He has completed 73% of his passes for 969 yards, 10 TD and 1 INT in three career playoff starts. Rodgers is also 4-2 lifetime versus Chicago with a 69% completion rate, 233 passing YPG, 7 TD and 4 INT in those six meetings. Including playoffs, Rodgers has 22 TD to just 2 INT in his past nine games overall. Four different receivers gained at least 75 yards against the Falcons. Greg Jennings had 101 yards on eight catches and Jordy Nelson also caught eight passes for 79 yards and a touchdown. James Jones also scored and finished with four grabs for 75 yards, while Donald Driver pitched in with six receptions for 76 yards. Green Bay has also done a nice job running the football with rookie RB James Starks who set a franchise rookie playoff record with 123 rushing yards against the Eagles and added 66 more rushing yards in the win at Atlanta. But the Packers could only muster 60 rushing yards on 23 carries in Week 17 against the Bears’ run-stop unit that held Seattle to 34 yards on 12 carries.

Chicago’s Jay Cutler had a tremendous playoff debut last week against Seattle, throwing for 274 yards and two touchdowns, while rushing for 43 yards and two additional scores. He was just the second quarterback ever to throw for 2 TD and rush for 2 TD in a playoff game, joining Otto Graham on a short list. But the Packers have not been kind to Cutler over the years. For his career, Cutler has a 1-4 record against Green Bay, completing less than 55% of his passes for 228 YPG, 5 TD and 9 INT. This particular Packers secondary has been playing great, especially Tramon Williams who has three interceptions in two playoff games. The Pack have allowed less than 150 passing yards in four of their past six games and their turnover margin is a stellar +7 in the past four contests. The Chicago running game also shined in the win over the Seahawks with 176 yards on the ground, its highest total since Week 5. RB Matt Forte also had a strong postseason debut rushing for 80 yards and gaining another 54 yards on three receptions. He has only rushed for 363 yards on 3.6 YPC with one touchdown in six career games versus Green Bay, but he has gained 159 receiving yards to give him an average of 87.0 total YPG against the Pack.

Although the past five meetings have been decided by a touchdown or less, the Packers have owned this series since 1992, going 26-12 SU (23-14-1 ATS) against the Bears. The FoxSheets give two more reasons for backing Green Bay to win and cover on Sunday afternoon.

Mike McCarthy is 19-6 ATS (76.0%, +12.4 Units) after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games as the coach of GREEN BAY. The average score was GREEN BAY 30.3, OPPONENT 18.8 - (Rating = 2*).

GREEN BAY is 14-4 ATS (77.8%, +9.6 Units) versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=90 rushing yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992. The average score was GREEN BAY 24.7, OPPONENT 18.0 - (Rating = 1*).

These teams have two of the top four scoring defenses in the NFL during the regular season (Green Bay 2nd at 15.0 PPG, Chicago 4th at 17.9 PPG) and the past six games in this series have all finished under the total. However, this four-star FoxSheets trend likes the Over on Sunday.

Play Over - Any team against the total (GREEN BAY) - after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games against opponent after covering the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games. (32-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (84.2%, +25.4 units. Rating = 4*).