NFL Trends and Indexes - Divisional Round (1/15 - 1/16)

[Udog]

NFL Trends and Indexes

Saturday, January 15 - Sunday, January 16

Additional trends and information will be added as available.

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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[Udog]

NFL Opening Line Report: Divisional Round

There are two things Rex Ryan isn’t short of: XXXL T-shirts and personal confidence.

"I told Belichick after the game, 'We'll see you in Round 3,' " the Jets coach told reporters of his exchange with New England’s coach after the Pats hammered New York 45-3 in Week 13. "He just looked at me."

Ryan gets his third round shot at the Pats this weekend, but if you think the last blowout would temper his trash talking, New York’s coach wasted little time dispelling that notion.

"This is about Bill Belichick versus Rex Ryan," Ryan told reporters on Monday. "There's no question, it's personal. It's about him against myself. That's what it's going to come down to."

Oddsmakers beg to differ. They have the Jets set as heavy 9-point underdogs heading into Sunday’s game at Foxboro. It’s the biggest line these two teams have seen since the Pats downed New York 31-14 as 10.5-point favorites last November and you know New England will come into this game well prepared coming off the bye.

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-9, 45.5)

This line opened at -9 and has hovered between -8.5 and -10 since then. With two of the most public teams squaring off and considering this history and connections between the clubs, oddsmakers are expecting a lot of action on both sides.

“I think you will continue to see this number come down throughout the week,” says Chuck Esposito, Race and Sports Executive at the Venetian Resort and Casino. “The Pats are still weak against the run and the Jets will look to pound the ball and control the clock.”

If that’s the case, New York’s game plan could impact the total – as long as the Jets can successfully move the ball on the ground.

“Like with all Patriots games, the over will be a very popular pick,” SportsInteraction.com oddsmaker Greg Sindall adds. “If you want to bet over, get on it now. That total will move up possibly even by a couple points.”

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 36.5)

This line has moved a bit already. The books in Vegas opened this game with Pittsburgh favored by 3.5 points with the total at 37. The total could continue to fall a bit, while the pointspread should hover around a field goal up until game time.
Whichever side of three points it closes at is anyone’s guess.

“The Steelers still come of the bye and are facing a Ravens team that once again must win on the road,” says Esposito. “The Steelers are still one of the most public tams and I suspect this number will go up slightly before kickoff.”

“I don’t expect much movement in the line,” says Sindall. “The price on the spread may move slightly but nothing significant.”

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (-2, 45.5)

This is a line you’ll have to monitor all week. Vegas opened with Atlanta set as a -1.5 favorite, but that number was quickly bet up to as high as -2.5 at some shops. Since then the line has bounced around a bit. You can find it as low as -1 or as high as -2.5. The total has dropped half a point from the open.

“After their big win against the Eagles, I think we will see people hopping on the Green Bay bandwagon,” says Sindall. “I will not be surprised if the spread comes down a point. If you are planning on betting the over, I would get on early. It will be a popular selection all week.”

“I think this game will draw tremendous two-way action, if the game goes to 3 my guess is there will be plenty of Packers takers at that price,” Esposito adds.

Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears (-10, 40)

If Seattle’s big upset over the New Orleans Saints taught us anything, it’s not to take a big spread like this lightly – especially after the Seahawks downed the Bears at Soldier Field in Week 6.

“The spread could come down a bit,” says Sindall. “People may not expect the Seahawks to win, but a lot of bettors might be taking them to cover. This Chicago team is much different than the one that lost to Seattle earlier in the season.”

And that isn’t the only thing the Bears have going from them.

“The Bears are one of the healthiest teams in the league and come off the bye,” says Esposito. “Although this is a big number for this round of the playoffs it wouldn’t surprise me to see this number go even higher later in the week.”

[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel


Green Bay at Atlanta
The Packers look to build on their 8-3 ATS record in their last 11 games as a road underdog from 1 to 3 points. Green Bay is the pick (+2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Packers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+2 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

SATURDAY, JANUARY 15

Game 109-110: Baltimore at Pittsburgh (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 135.465; Pittsburgh 140.553
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 5; 33
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 3; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-3); Under

Game 111-112: Green Bay at Atlanta (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 140.682; Atlanta 129.910
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 1; 48
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 2 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+2 1/2); Over


SUNDAY, JANUARY 16

Game 113-114: Seattle at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 127.505; Chicago 135.517
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 8; 39
Vegas Line: Chicago by 10; 41
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+10); Under

Game 115-116: NY Jets at New England (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 136.025; New England 146.625
Dunkel Line: New England by 10 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: New England by 8 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: New England (-8 1/2); Over

[Udog]

NFL
Long Sheet


Division Round

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Saturday, January 15

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BALTIMORE (13 - 4) at PITTSBURGH (12 - 4) - 1/15/2011, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
BALTIMORE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field this season.
BALTIMORE is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 4-2 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 5-2 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (11 - 6) at ATLANTA (13 - 3) - 1/15/2011, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) against NFC South division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) against NFC North division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
GREEN BAY is 48-30 ATS (+15.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
ATLANTA is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in home games off a win against a division rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 2-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 2-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, January 16

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SEATTLE (8 - 9) at CHICAGO (11 - 5) - 1/16/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 1-1 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 1-1 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (12 - 5) at NEW ENGLAND (14 - 2) - 1/16/2011, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 136-103 ATS (+22.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 86-61 ATS (+18.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 60-37 ATS (+19.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NY JETS are 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NY JETS are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games revenging a loss against opponent over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-3 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-3 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[Udog]

NFL
Short Sheet


Division Round

Saturday, 1/15/2011

BALTIMORE at PITTSBURGH, 4:30 PM ET
BALTIMORE: 6-0 ATS Away on grass
PITTSBURGH: 12-3 Over on Saturday

GREEN BAY at ATLANTA, 8:00 PM ET
GREEN BAY: 8-1 Under in road games
ATLANTA: 3-18 ATS at home off home win


Sunday, 1/16/2011

SEATTLE at CHICAGO, 1:00 PM ET
SEATTLE: 2-12 ATS as road underdog
CHICAGO: 15-5 Over off road ATS Win/SU loss

NY JETS at NEW ENGLAND, 4:30 PM ET
NY JETS: 8-1 in road games
NEW ENGLAND: 13-3 Over in all games

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[Udog]

NFL


Division Round

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Trend Report
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Saturday, January 15

4:30 PM
BALTIMORE vs. PITTSBURGH
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Pittsburgh is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore

8:00 PM
GREEN BAY vs. ATLANTA
Green Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
Green Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing Green Bay
Atlanta is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home


Sunday, January 16

1:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games on the road
Seattle is 3-14 SU in its last 17 games on the road
Chicago is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games

4:30 PM
NY JETS vs. NEW ENGLAND
NY Jets are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone OVER in 12 of the NY Jets last 16 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of New England's last 10 games
New England is 13-4 SU in their last 17 games when playing NY Jets


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[Udog]

NFL playoff trends: Are bye teams rested or rusty?

It seems like only yesterday when NFL playoff teams took the field with a week of rest against advancing Wild Card Round winners and proceeded directly to winners circle. But that's not the case today. As Bob Dylan so sagely put it, “The times are a-changin’.”

Don’t know if you’ve noticed but what was once a moneymaking proposition backing rested teams in the NFL postseason has turned into a stone-cold loser, instead. Maybe it’s been an over-adjustment by linesmakers. Or maybe it was an edge that was lost by teams that opted not to play their starters in regular season finales. Whatever the case, to ask them to ‘turn on the switch’ two weeks later isn’t working.

Let’s examine how these rested teams have fared in the playoffs since 1990, when the league shifted from a 10 to a 12-team playoff format. Here are the results. (Note - all rested teams were hosting unrested Wild Card round winners and dated listed are by ‘season’):

1990-2009

59-21 straight up and 42-36-2 against the spread

Overall, an unspectacular 54 percent winning effort against the number. But let’s break down the numbers and take a closer look at how these same teams have fared over the past two decades:

1990-1999

33-7 SU and 24-15-1 ATS

2000-2008

26-14 SU and 18-21-1 ATS

Uh, oh. Do you see what I see? Like the a BP oil rig, these well-rested home teams appear to be leaking at an alarming rate. Over the last four years these teams appear to have blown a gasket, going just 8-8 SU and 5-11 ATS.

Now, what is your take on coaches resting starters in Week 17 of the season? So much for letting air out of the ‘momentum-balloon’.

My suggestion this week would be to take the time and carefully evaluate the four rested hosts and get a better perspective of their condition as they enter their opening round games. It could be time well spent



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NFL matchups: Divisional playoffs odds

Saturday, Jan. 15, 4:30 p.m. ET

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 36.5)

With a 30-7 blowout of the Kansas City Chiefs, the Baltimore Ravens set the table for another nasty defensive showdown with the Pittsburgh Steelers.Ben Roethlisberger owns a 6-2 straight up record against the Ravens.

Saturday Jan. 15, 8:00 p.m. ET

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5, 45.5)

The Packers survived with a 21-16 win at Philadelphia and have another tough road test ahead of them next week. With Matt Ryan leading the offense, the Falcons have lost only two games at the Georgia Dome over the last three years.

Sunday, Jan. 16, 1:00 p.m. ET

Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears (-10, 40)

After shocking the New Orleans Saints the Seahawks head to the Windy City looking for their second win over the Bears this season. Seattle came out of Chicago with a 23-20 victory as a 6-point underdog in Week 6.

Sunday Jan. 16, 4:30 p.m. ET

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-8.5, 45.5)

This will be the third matchup of the year between the two clubs after Nick Folk hit a game-winning field goal to down Indianapolis 17-16.

"We split with them this year," New England coach Bill Belichick told reporters on a conference call Sunday afternoon. "So now it will be best two out of three. It's probably the way it should be."

[Udog]

NFL
Write-Up

Saturday, January 15

Ravens (13-4) @ Steelers (12-4)—Steelers won six of last seven games, but are just 4-3 in their last seven home games- they’re 10-0 when allowing 16 or less points, 2-4 when they allow more. Six of last seven series meetings were won by 4 or less points, with Pittsburgh winning five of seven; road team won both meetings this year, with Ravens letting sweep slip away when Flacco was sacked/fumbled in his own territory when Baltimore led 10-6 in last 4:00. Roethlisberger didn’t play in Week 4 game at Heinz Field, a 17-14 Baltimore win. Ravens won five in row since Week 13 loss (4-1 vs. spread), forcing 18 turnovers (+13). #2 seed in AFC lost first playoff game 3 of last 4 years.

Packers (11-6) @ Falcons (13-3)—Green Bay (+2.5) lost 20-17 in Atlanta in Week 12, despite Rodgers averaging 9.5 yards/pass attempt; Pack outgained Atlanta 418-295, but fumbled on Atlanta 1-yard line and scored only 17 points on four trips to red zone, while Falcons scored TDs on both its red zone trips. Packers' win at Philly last week was their first in last four road games. Since 1990, NFC #1 seeds are 18-2 in their first playoff game, but losses came in last three years. Atlanta is 7-1 at home this year, losing in Week 16 to Saints when New Orleans needed game lot more than Falcons- thats Atlanta's only loss in their last ten games. Green Bay is 2-3 on artificial turf this season.

[Udog]

NFL


Divisional Round

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NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Divisional Round
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Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)

Why Ravens cover: The road team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four times these two division rivals have played. Both of their meetings this year resulted in 3-point outcomes, which bodes well for Baltimore. Their last meeting saw Ben Roethlisberger, who admittedly hates playing against Baltimore, come away with a broken nose courtesy of defensive tackle Haloti Ngata. Expect the Ravens to come after Big Ben again to try and force him out of the pocket and into the waiting clutches of their feared linebackers.

Why Steelers cover: They've had one more week to prepare and more importantly, one more week to rest. In a game that is expected to be as physical as it is low scoring, having a week of has given players like Troy Polamalu, Maurkice Pouncey, Bryant McFadden and Mewelde Moore a chance to recuperate from their late season injuries. Their defense was so good against the run during the season that the next best team (Chicago) allowed 27.3 yards more per game than the Steelers. If Baltimore can't get its ground game going, Joe Flacco could struggle to move the ball on his own, something that has happened to him in the past.

Total (37): Over is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings in Pittsburgh.

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (-2)

Why Packers cover: The one thing they couldn't do well all season was run the ball. Suddenly, out of nowhere, in their wild card matchup against Philadelphia, rookie running back James Starks torched the Eagles for 123 yards on 23 carries. We already know that they have a great defense (they led the NFC with a plus-148 point differential) and have one of the games most feared passing attacks, but if the Packers can run the ball effectively from time to time, they might be the team to beat in the NFC.

Why Falcons cover: The Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last six matchups against the Falcons. In the Week 12 clash, Atlanta played a focused, controlled game that saw Matt Ryan complete 85 percent of his passes while Michael Turner pounded away on the ground for 110 yards. Atlanta’s defense was largely over-looked this season but held opponents to a respectable 18-points per game and could be the deciding factor in a game that is expected to go down to the wire.

Total (44): Under is 8-1 in the Packers' last nine road games.

Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears (-10)

Why Seahawks cover: They only managed two road wins all season but one of them was a Week 6 victory over Chicago at Soldier Field. That was one of the few games in which Matt Hasselbeck didn't throw an interception, largely because the Bears couldn't contain Mike Williams (10 catches, 123 yards). Jay Cutler can be forced to makes mistakes when he is playing from behind, and if the Seahawks can keep the Bears' offense off the field, that's what just might happen. The road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

Why Bears cover: They plan to utilize a run heavy attack to tire out the Seahawks' defense and keep Matt Hasselbeck off the field, something New Orleans couldn't do with their two top running backs out. Seattle finished the season ranked 27th against the run and could have problems shutting down Matt Forte who had a great second half of the season.

Total (41): Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.

New York. Jets at New England Patriots (-9.5)

Why Jets cover: They were smart and rested LaDainian Tomlinson down the stretch so the former San Diego Charger would have fresh legs during the postseason. The plan worked like a charm against Indianapolis (82 yards and two touchdowns on 16 carries). The 31-year-old tailback, (102 total yards) was a key component in the victory over the Patriots in Week 2, and will need to rekindle that magic so the Jets can control the game on the ground and not have to leave it solely on the shoulders of quarterback Mark Sanchez.

Why Patriots cover: Everyone remembers their Week 13 embarrassment of the Jets that saw them hang a 42-point victory on Rex Ryan's squad as measly 4-point favorites. So, what's different from that and their road loss at New York earlier in the season? The Patriots have been unstoppable in the second half of the season going 8-0 (6-2 ATS) all while never scoring less than 31 points in a game and holding opponents to 15.6 points per game during that stretch. The Jets are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 meetings and the home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.

Total (44.5): Over is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings.


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[Udog]

NFL
Write-Up


Sunday, January 16

Seahawks (8-9) @ Bears (11-5)-- Seattle's nine losses are all by 15+ points, but they did upset Bears 23-20 (+6) in Week 6, sacking Cutler six times, holding Chicago without an offensive TD after game's first drive. Seahawks came off a bye in that game, now Bears are coming off bye- NFC #2 seeds are just 5-4 in last nine playoff openers, but four of five wins were by 22+ points. Chicago is 5-3 at home, but just 2-4-1 as a favorite. Seattle allowed 34-40-38 points in its last three road games, giving up 13 TDs on 31 drives. Since 1990, NFC #4 seed (worst of the division winners) is 1-13 SU in this round, with 10 of 13 losses by 10 or more points.

Jets (12-5) @ Patriots (14-2)-- Jets won first meeting 28-14 in Week 2 (+3), in game Pats led 14-10 at half; Jets outrushed NE 136-52, were +3 in turnovers. Patriots won rematch 45-3 (-3.5) in Week 13, going +3 in turnovers, averaging 9.5 yards/pass attempt. Pats won last eight games (6-2 vs spread); #1 seeds in AFC actually lost this game three of last five years, but Belichick is 2-0 in this round when #1 seed, winning by 3-11 points. Jets are 7-2 on road this season, losing 38-34 at Chicago in Week 16. Over last seven years, #5-6 seeds in AFC are 3-4 SU in this game, with losses by 3-3-11-17 points.

[Udog]

NFL


Divisional Round

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NFL total bias: Divisional Round over/under picks
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For Chicago Bears supporters, it feels like everybody piled into the plutonium-powered DeLorean and sped off back to NFL playoff land in 2006 all over again.

Sure some of the names have changed on the jerseys, but little else has from that team that was bested by the Colts in the Super Bowl to the one that heads into Sunday’s matchup with the Seattle Seahawks. The Bears still have that scary defense that prides itself on good tackling and takeaways, forcing teams to string long drives together to put up points.

And now that Mike Martz has given up jamming a square peg in a round hole with the offense and actually leans on the running game a bit, the attacking unit isn’t all that different either.

Instead of Rex Grossman at quarterback, Jay Cutler takes the snaps and is still prone to Rex-like mental lapses even though his skill set is an upgrade. Instead of Thomas Jones, Matt Forte takes the handoffs and gives the Bears exactly what Jones did – positive offensive plays. Meanwhile, the Bears are still just as dangerous on special teams as they were when Devin Hester took Super Bowl XLI’s opening kickoff to the house.

Wagering on the Bears hasn’t changed much either. They’re heavy underdogs to return to the big dance in Dallas this time around and, while defense is still their claim to fame, over bettors have seen value in the low totals posted week in and week out, no matter who they’re up against.

While the winds of Chicago can whip up at any time and kill an over wager, that’s where the value is again this week against the Seahawks.

Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears (-10, 41)

These teams have played over the total in each of their last five meetings, while Chicago has topped the total in five of its last six and Seattle has played over in nine of its last 10. I’m not normally a trends guy, but those numbers tell you a lot in this case.

Matt Hasselbeck is in for a heck of a day one way or the other Sunday, though don’t expect him to back down. He connected with Mike Williams all day in Week 6’s win at Chicago and this club is brimming with confidence after ousting the Saints.

Expect big plays all over the field from both sides of the ball on this one and pray the wind doesn’t act up.

Pick: Over


Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5, 44)

All due respect to Aaron Rogers and Matt Ryan, but defense steals the show here.

Green Bay has been one of the better under bets of the league this year, playing below the total in 11 games so far and Atlanta’s defense just gets better every week.

The Falcons have allowed more than 18 points only once (24 to Tampa Bay in early-December) over their last seven games and Green Bay ranks among the top five in points allowed, total yards and passing defense.

Clay Matthews and John Abraham might just steal the spotlight from the quarterbacks and we’ll get a similar game to Atlanta’s 20-17 win over the Pack earlier this season.

Pick: Under


Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 37)

As much as I want to jump on the over in this matchup, I just can’t rationalize it.

This grudge match begins and ends with blood, big hits and – most importantly – very few defensive errors. Not only does this game feature the two nastiest defenses in the league, but they’re also two of the most creative, technical and efficient units as well.

They don’t give up many big plays and force teams to grind out punishing points against them, chewing up valuable clock time. The reality is, with these clubs so closely matched, one big play on either side could decide the game. That big play will come from one of these defenses.

Pick: Under


New York Jets at New England Patriots (-9, 44)

Anybody else completely sick of Rex Ryan’s schtick?

The last thing I’d do after taking a 45-3 pounding from the Pats would be to talk smack all week about Belichick and his boys. While Ryan vows his team will be better this time around, they’re not just going to have to be better, they’re going to have to show up as a completely different team.

I don’t know if I’d bite on the Pats with the 9-point spread, but I’ll certainly sign up for the over. If Ryan wants to be in this game in the fourth quarter, he’s going to have to find a way to get a few majors from the offense. And if that doesn’t happen, the Pats may just end up topping the total by themselves like they did last time.

Pick: Over

Last week’s record: 2-1
Season record to date: 28-27


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[Udog]

NFL


Saurday, January 15

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What Bettors Need to Know
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Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5, 37)

THE STORY: Round 3 of one of the most bitter and undoubtedly the most physical rivalries in the NFL. The Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers split two meetings this season, with each winning on the other team’s field. No surprise there, since the past four regular season meetings have been decided by three points.

The Steelers have two factors in their favor: The home-field advantage and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who has won his last six starts against the Ravens. The teams shared the AFC North Division title with 12-4 records, but Pittsburgh won the tiebreaker by virtue of a better division record. A trip to the AFC Championship Game awaits the winner, so expect the usual Saturday - a ferocious, hard-hitting game that likely will come down to the waning minutes.

TV: 4:30 p.m. EST, CBS

OPENING LINE: Steelers -3.5, O/U 37

WEATHER: Chance of snow showers with temperatures in the low-30s.

ABOUT THE STEELERS (12-4, 10-6 ATS): The Steelers rebounded from a 22-17 home loss to the New York Jets with dominating wins over Carolina (27-3) and at Cleveland (41-9) to close out the season. Pittsburgh won six of its final seven games, holding five opponents to 10 points or fewer. The Steelers struggled to find their offensive stride this side, no doubt hindered by the fact that Roethlisberger missed the first four games while serving a four-game suspension. Rashard Mendenhall ran for 1,273 yards and 13 TDs and speedster Mike Wallace is an emerging star at wide receiver. He had six 100-yard games, including three straight to close out the season. Roethlisberger has two Super Bowl rings and always seems to figure out a way to beat the Ravens. Then there is the defense, which has a league-leading 48 sacks and hopes to have big-play safety Troy Polamalu healthy.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (13-4, 9-7-1 ATS): Baltimore enters Saturday’s showdown on a roll, riding a five-game winning streak that included a 30-7 dismantling of the Kansas City Chiefs in last weekend’s Wildcard Round. The Ravens forced five turnovers by the Chiefs in winning for the seventh time in eight games. They have held six of their last eight opponents to 13 points or fewer. Baltimore has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 14 games, but neither have the Steelers, which could mean little running room for running back Ray Rice. Joe Flacco threw for 265 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He connected with tight end Todd Heap 10 times for 108 yards, but was also sacked four times. Flacco must be wary of Pittsburgh’s pass rush. His fourth-quarter fumble led to the winning score for the Steelers in the last meeting.

KEY PLAYERS: Pittsburgh’s defense is a completely different unit with Polamalu on the field. He has been dealing with an Achilles injury, but practiced fully Thursday. His sack of Flacco in Week 13 thwarted Baltimore’s chances of a season sweep and division title. Outside linebackers James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley lead a strong pass rush. Harrison had 36.5 sacks in the past three seasons and Woodley has registered eight sacks in four postseason games. Roethlisberger is 8-2 all-time in the postseason and has not lost to the Ravens since Dec. 24, 2006.

Rice has been completely bottled up by Pittsburgh’s top-ranked run defense this season, managing just 52 yards in both meetings. However, he’s the only back to rush for more than 100 yards against the Steelers in the past 50 games. Rice needs to provide some semblance of a running game to keep Pittsburgh’s pass rush from teeing off on Flacco. WR Anquan Boldin had five catches for 118 yards and a touchdown in the last game vs. the Steelers. He also had success against Pittsburgh’s suspect secondary with eight catches for Arizona in Super Bowl XLIII.

RECENT HISTORY: The teams split both regular season meetings in each of the last two seasons, but both Baltimore victories came with Roethlisberger out of the lineup.

KEY INJURIES: Ravens: C Matt Birk (knee), CB Chris Carr (thigh). Steelers: DE Aaron Smith (triceps), CB Bryant McFadden (abdomen), S Troy Polamalu (ankle).

LAST WORD: A victory would allow Flacco to set the NFL record for road playoff wins by a quarterback with five. A win would send Pittsburgh to its 15th AFC Championship Game, surpassing Dallas (14) for the most appearances in a conference title game since 1970.

TRENDS:

- Over is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings in Pittsburgh.
- Ravens are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
- Underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
- Road team is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.



Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5, 43)

THE STORY: The Atlanta Falcons will look to justify their seeding when they host the Green Bay Packers Saturday night. Even though the Falcons own the NFC’s best record and have been nearly unbeatable at home with third-year quarterback Matt Ryan under center, they are barely favored over Green Bay.

The Packers were a trendy preseason choice to reach the Super Bowl, but needed to win their last two regular season games to secure the sixth and final seed in the NFC. This will be a rematch of Week 12, when Atlanta eked out a 20-17 home victory on Matt Bryant’s 47-yard field goal with nine seconds to play.

TV: Saturday, 8 p.m. EST, FOX

OPENING LINE: Falcons -2.5, O/U 43

This spread opened as low as Atlanta -1 and has been bet up to -2.5 and has cracked the key number of -3 at some sportsbooks. The total has also moved this past week, dropping from 45.5 points to 43 as of Friday afternoon.

WEATHER: Dome.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (13-3, 11-5 ATS): Atlanta has been a machine at home, going 20-2 at the Georgia Dome with Ryan as a starter. The Falcons were 7-0 (5-3 ATS) at home this season until a three-point loss to New Orleans in Week 16.

While skeptics – and there seem to be many – point to the success at the Georgia Dome, Atlanta did reel off three consecutive road wins after beating the Packers, part of an eight-game winning streak.

Ryan, nicknamed “Matty Ice” for his penchant of delivering in the clutch, is more efficient than flashy. He was 24 of 28 for 197 yards and one TD in the earlier victory over the Packers. Ryan’s favorite target is Roddy White, who led the NFL with 115 receptions, and the passing game is complemented by bulldozing running back Michael Turner (1,371 yards, 12 rushing TDs).

ABOUT THE PACKERS (11-6, 10-7 ATS): Rodgers finally got the Brett Favre monkey off his back by winning his first playoff game in last week’s 21-16 victory in Philadelphia. Rodgers has had to carry the offense all season in the absence of a running game, but that wasn’t the case last week.

Rookie James Starks, who didn’t set foot on the field until December, made a loud introduction to the league by rushing for 123 yards – a franchise record for the playoffs. That helped Rodgers throw for 180 yards and three touchdowns while registering a passer rating of 122.5.

Green Bay’s defense closed the regular season in spectacular fashion, holding five of its last nine opponents to seven points or less. The Packers never get blown out with their six losses all coming by four points or fewer.

PLAYERS TO WATCH: While Ryan gets much of the publicity, Turner makes the Falcons’ offense go. He helps Atlanta finish off scoring drives, evidenced by 39 rushing touchdowns in three seasons with the Falcons. In the first meeting vs. Green Bay, he had a touchdown and rushed for 110 yards – one of seven 100-yard performances this season. On the other side of the ball, defensive end John Abraham will look to build on a 13-sack season and pressure Rodgers, who threw for 344 yards in Week 12.

A sixth-round draft choice, Starks didn’t even play in his senior year at Buffalo due to an injury that lingered well into this season. He gives Green Bay a bonafide threat out of the backfield that has been missing since Ryan Grant went down with a season-ending injury in Week 1. Linebacker Clay Matthews finished just ahead of Abraham with 13.5 sacks. Cornerbacks Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams are an excellent tandem. White was limited to five catches for 49 yards in Week 12.

RECENT HISTORY: Rodgers guided the Packers 90 yards for the tying score in the earlier meeting this season, but a kickoff return to midfield by Eric Weems help Ryan get the Falcons in position for Bryant’s winning kick.

KEY INJURIES: Green Bay: C Jason Spitz (calf), LB Frank Zombo (knee), LB Diyral Briggs (ankle), T Chad Clifton (knees), DE Cullen Jenkins (calf), LB Clay Matthews (shin), DE Ryan Pickett (ankle). Atlanta: CB Brian Williams (knee), DE John Abraham (groin), DT Jonathan Babineaux (shoulder), S Thomas DeCoud (ankle), LB Curtis Lofton (knee), C Todd McClure (ankle), WR Roddy White (knee).

LAST WORD: NFC No. 1 seeds are 18-2 in the divisional round since the league went to a 12-team playoff format in 1990. However, both those losses have come in the past three seasons.

TRENDS:

- Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings.
- Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
- Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.


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[Udog]

NFL


Saturday, January 15

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Tips and Trends
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Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers [CBS | 4:30 PM ET]

RAVENS: Baltimore has won their past 5 games SU, including a dominating road effort against Kansas City in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. The Ravens are playing arguably their best football of the season right now. Baltimore will need to be at their best to beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh tonight. The final result of each of the past 4 meetings between these two teams has been a field goal. Baltimore is 13-4 SU and 9-7-1 ATS overall this season. The Ravens are 6-3 SU and 6-2-1 ATS on the road this year. Baltimore is 2-1-1 ATS as the listed underdog this season. RB Ray Rice has been a prominent figure in the recent Ravens success, and he will look to run against the stiffest run defense in the NFL. Rice rushed for 1,220 YDS this season, including 5 TD's. QB Joe Flacco threw for 3,622 YDS and 25 TD's this year. The Ravens defense is as menacing as ever, as they allowed just 16.9 PPG this season, the 3rd fewest in the NFL. The Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Ravens are 27-10-1 ATS in their last 38 games played on grass. Baltimore is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 playoff road games. The Ravens are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games played in January. Baltimore is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games. The Ravens are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.

Ravens are 4-0 ATS last 4 road games.
Under is 6-2 last 8 playoff games.

Key Injuries - S Tom Zbikowski (back) is questionable.

Projected Score: 14

STEELERS: (-3, O/U 37) Pittsburgh won 6 of their final 7 games SU in order to be hosting this game tonight. Home field advantage hasn't mattered in the first 2 meetings this year between these two hated rivals. Pittsburgh was 12-4 SU and 10-6 ATS during the regular season this year. The Steelers were 5-3 both SU and ATS at home this year. Pittsburgh is 3-4 ATS as the listed favorite of less than a TD this year. QB Ben Roethlisberger is eyeing another run at the Super Bowl, and he'll be a major factor for the Steelers this postseason. Roethlisberger has thrown for 3,200 YDS this season, including 17 TD's. RB Rashard Mendenhall has rushed for 1,273 YDS and 13 TD's this season for Pittsburgh. The Steelers defense allowed just 14.5 PPG this year, the fewest in the NFL. Pittsburgh was impossible to run against, as they allowed just over 60 RYPG this year. The Steelers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games played in January. Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against the AFC North. The Steelers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 playoff games. Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on grass. The Steelers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win. Pittsburgh is 2-5 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.

Steelers are 4-0 ATS last 4 playoff home games.
Over is 9-1 last 10 playoff home games.

Key Injuries - CB Bryant McFadden (groin) is probable.

Projected Score: 17 (UNDER-Total of the Day)



Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons [FOX | 8:00 PM ET]

PACKERS: Green Bay was able to beat Philadelphia on the road in the Wild Card round 21-16 SU. The Packers have been one of the elite teams since the start of the preseason schedule. Green Bay is 11-6 SU and 10-7 ATS overall this season. The Packers are 4-5 SU and 5-4 ATS on the road this season. Green Bay is 3-1 ATS as the listed underdog this year. The Packers average 24.3 PPG this season, thanks to the golden arm of QB Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has thrown for 3,922 YDS and 28 TD's in an NFL MVP caliber season. Rodgers has been the clear leader of a passing game that averages 257 YPG, 5th most in the NFL. WR Greg Jennings has 1,265 receiving YDS and 12 TD's this season. This Packers defense has been dynamic this season, as they've allowed just 15 PPG, 2nd fewest in the NFL. Not much was expected from this Packers defense, but they've proven their worth all season long, ultimately making the Packers an elite team. The Packers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 Divisional Playoffs games. Green Bay is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games against a team with a winning home record. The Packers are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a road underdog. Green Bay is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall. The Packers are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games played on fieldturf. Green Bay is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

Packers are 4-1 ATS last 5 games as an underdog up to a field goal.
Under is 13-3 last 16 games following a SU win.

Key Injuries - WR Donald Driver (knee) is probable.

Projected Score: 20

FALCONS: (-2.5, O/U 44) Atlanta dominated the entire NFC this season, as they finished with the best record in the conference by 2 games. The Falcons enter the playoffs with a 13-3 SU and 11-5 ATS overall record. Atlanta has taken a step up this year, as they are easily an elite team. The Falcons were 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS at home this year. Atlanta was 7-2 ATS as the listed favorite of less than a TD this year. The Falcons averaged 25.9 PPG this season, 5th most in the NFL. Atlanta has a very balanced offense, as the rank in the top half of the league in both passing and rushing. QB Matt Ryan has thrown for 3,705 YDS and 28 TD's this year. RB Michael Turner rushed for 1,371 YDS and 13 TD's this season. WR Roddy White just might be the best offensive player in football, as he had 115 receptions for 1,389 YDS and 13 TD's this year. The Falcons are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as the listed favorite. Atlanta is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. The Falcons are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against the NFC. The Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on fieldturf. Atlanta is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. The Falcons are 9-20-1 ATS in their last 30 home games against a team with a winning road record.

Falcons are 7-1 ATS last 8 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
Over is 6-0 last 6 Saturday games.

Key Injuries - DB Brian Williams (knee) is probable.

Projected Score: 27 (SIDE of the Day)


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[Spark]

Thanks R. Have a great weekend my friend

[Udog]

Thanks R. Have a great weekend my friend

You, too! Thanks Spark!