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Saturday Divisional Playoffs
January 12, 2011
After three of four underdogs cashed during Wild Card weekend, the two Saturday games in the Divisional Playoffs employ short pointspreads heading into the second weekend of the NFL postseason. The Packers try for their second road win in as many weeks as Green Bay travels to Atlanta at night, but we'll begin in the Steel City with an AFC North showdown between two rivals playing the all-important round three.
Ravens at Steelers - 4:30 PM EST
It's a defensive battle made in heaven when Baltimore invades Heinz Field for the second time this season. The Ravens advanced to the second round for the third straight season following a 30-7 blowout of the Chiefs as three-point road favorites. Now the task for John Harbaugh's club is to knock off their division rivals, while avenging a Week 13 home loss to the Steelers.
Pittsburgh received a first-round bye and a home game in the second round thanks to a 41-9 thrashing of Cleveland in Week 17. The Steelers finished the season with wins in six of their last seven games, including a 13-10 comeback victory at Baltimore in early December on a Sunday night. The key play in that win was Troy Polamalu's sack of Joe Flacco late in the fourth quarter, setting up the Steelers deep in Ravens' territory. Pittsburgh would cash in with a Ben Roethlisberger touchdown pass to Isaac Redman with three minutes remaining to give the Steelers an outright victory as three-point underdogs.
The Ravens won their fifth straight contest with the Wild Card rout at Kansas City, including their fourth consecutive victory on the highway. Flacco put together his best playoff game in his short career with 265 yards passing and two touchdowns, while the Baltimore defense held the Chiefs to just 161 yards of offense. Kansas City turned the ball over three times and could never get leading receiver Dwayne Bowe involved, as the former LSU star was held without a catch.
Baltimore captured the first meeting this season in Western Pennsylvania with a 13-10 triumph back in Week 4. Roethlisberger was serving the final game of a four-game suspension, as the Steelers' offense stalled with Charlie Batch under center by accumulating 210 yards. Pittsburgh had an excellent chance to start 4-0 without Big Ben, but Flacco's late touchdown pass to T.J. Houshmandzadeh gave Baltimore the victory as two-point underdogs.
Pittsburgh finished the regular season at 5-3 SU/ATS at home, as all three losses came to the other three playoff teams remaining in the AFC. The closest defeat came to the Ravens, while falling by 13 to the Patriots (Week 10) and five to the Jets (Week 15). Polamalu is expected to play this week after missing two of the final three regular season games with an Achilles' injury.
There are no significant trends from a totals standpoint, but the Ravens have cashed the 'under' in six of nine road games this season. Pittsburgh went 5-3 to the 'under' in eight home contests, including five of seven 'unders' with the total set at 41 or less. Baltimore's defense has limited seven of the last 10 opponents to 13 points or less, with the 'under' hitting in six of those seven games.
The Steelers are listed as three-point favorites (even though you would have to pay $1.20 or $1.25 'juice'), but that number is moving up to 3 ½ at several books. The total remains at a steady 37 across the board, as snow is expected this weekend in Pittsburgh with temperatures in the low 30's. The game kicks off at 4:30 PM EST and will be televised nationally on CBS.
Packers at Falcons - 8:00 PM EST
The top-seed in the NFC takes the gridiron on Saturday night as Atlanta owns home-field advantage for the first time in franchise history when it hosts Green Bay. Matt Ryan looks for another first against the Packers - his first playoff victory as the Falcons are 0-1 in the former Boston College standout's only postseason game.
Green Bay advanced to this round after holding off Philadelphia, 21-16 on Sunday as one-point road underdogs. The Packers built an early 14-0 thanks to a pair of touchdown tosses by Aaron Rodgers, while unheralded rookie running back James Starks rushed for 123 yards. The Eagles rallied back to cut the deficit to five points in the final four minutes, but a late Michael Vick interception sealed the victory for Green Bay.
Mike McCarthy's club has basically been playing elimination games over the last three weeks after capturing home wins over the Giants and Bears to qualify for the postseason. The Packers will keep games close as all six losses are by four points or less. Unfortunately, that doesn't really apply for Saturday's contest at the Georgia Dome, as the line keeps dropping below a field goal.
The last meeting between these two teams was decided by three points when the Falcons knocked off the Packers in Atlanta, 20-17 in Week 12. This game came down to the wire as Rodgers tied things up with a 10-yard touchdown toss to Jordy Nelson, but Matt Bryant's field goal in the final seconds gave Atlanta a crucial victory. The Packers outgained the Falcons, 418-294, while Rodgers threw for 344 yards and ran in a touchdown.
The Falcons lost just three regular season games (all to playoff teams), as Atlanta finished the season with covers in seven of the final eight contests. As a favorite, the Falcons compiled a 10-4 ATS mark, while putting together a 7-2 ATS ledger as 'chalk' of six points or less.
Ryan's lone playoff appearance came in 2008 as the Falcons fell at Arizona, 30-24 in the Wild Card round as short underdogs. The Cards jumped out to a 14-3 lead after Kurt Warner threw a pair of long touchdowns, but the Falcons responded with two scores before the half to take a 17-14 advantage. Arizona outscored Atlanta, 16-2 in the second half to advance to the Divisional Playoffs en route to the Super Bowl.
The number from a totals standpoint that sticks out is Green Bay's 8-1 'under' mark on the road, including last week's 'under' at Philadelphia. Coincidentally, the lone 'over' cashed with Matt Flynn starting at quarterback in a 31-27 defeat at New England, while holding the other eight opponents to 20 points or less. Green Bay is listed as an underdog for just the fourth time this season, as the Packers own a 2-1 SU/ATS record when receiving points.
The Falcons are listed as 2 to 2 ½ point-favorites depending on where you shop, while there are several 1 ½ and 3's lingering out there. The total is set between 43 ½ and 44 ½, dropping down from the opening number of 45 ½. The game kicks off at 8:00 PM EDT from the Georgia Dome and will be televised nationally on FOX.
January 12, 2011
After three of four underdogs cashed during Wild Card weekend, the two Saturday games in the Divisional Playoffs employ short pointspreads heading into the second weekend of the NFL postseason. The Packers try for their second road win in as many weeks as Green Bay travels to Atlanta at night, but we'll begin in the Steel City with an AFC North showdown between two rivals playing the all-important round three.
Ravens at Steelers - 4:30 PM EST
It's a defensive battle made in heaven when Baltimore invades Heinz Field for the second time this season. The Ravens advanced to the second round for the third straight season following a 30-7 blowout of the Chiefs as three-point road favorites. Now the task for John Harbaugh's club is to knock off their division rivals, while avenging a Week 13 home loss to the Steelers.
Pittsburgh received a first-round bye and a home game in the second round thanks to a 41-9 thrashing of Cleveland in Week 17. The Steelers finished the season with wins in six of their last seven games, including a 13-10 comeback victory at Baltimore in early December on a Sunday night. The key play in that win was Troy Polamalu's sack of Joe Flacco late in the fourth quarter, setting up the Steelers deep in Ravens' territory. Pittsburgh would cash in with a Ben Roethlisberger touchdown pass to Isaac Redman with three minutes remaining to give the Steelers an outright victory as three-point underdogs.
The Ravens won their fifth straight contest with the Wild Card rout at Kansas City, including their fourth consecutive victory on the highway. Flacco put together his best playoff game in his short career with 265 yards passing and two touchdowns, while the Baltimore defense held the Chiefs to just 161 yards of offense. Kansas City turned the ball over three times and could never get leading receiver Dwayne Bowe involved, as the former LSU star was held without a catch.
Baltimore captured the first meeting this season in Western Pennsylvania with a 13-10 triumph back in Week 4. Roethlisberger was serving the final game of a four-game suspension, as the Steelers' offense stalled with Charlie Batch under center by accumulating 210 yards. Pittsburgh had an excellent chance to start 4-0 without Big Ben, but Flacco's late touchdown pass to T.J. Houshmandzadeh gave Baltimore the victory as two-point underdogs.
Pittsburgh finished the regular season at 5-3 SU/ATS at home, as all three losses came to the other three playoff teams remaining in the AFC. The closest defeat came to the Ravens, while falling by 13 to the Patriots (Week 10) and five to the Jets (Week 15). Polamalu is expected to play this week after missing two of the final three regular season games with an Achilles' injury.
There are no significant trends from a totals standpoint, but the Ravens have cashed the 'under' in six of nine road games this season. Pittsburgh went 5-3 to the 'under' in eight home contests, including five of seven 'unders' with the total set at 41 or less. Baltimore's defense has limited seven of the last 10 opponents to 13 points or less, with the 'under' hitting in six of those seven games.
The Steelers are listed as three-point favorites (even though you would have to pay $1.20 or $1.25 'juice'), but that number is moving up to 3 ½ at several books. The total remains at a steady 37 across the board, as snow is expected this weekend in Pittsburgh with temperatures in the low 30's. The game kicks off at 4:30 PM EST and will be televised nationally on CBS.
Packers at Falcons - 8:00 PM EST
The top-seed in the NFC takes the gridiron on Saturday night as Atlanta owns home-field advantage for the first time in franchise history when it hosts Green Bay. Matt Ryan looks for another first against the Packers - his first playoff victory as the Falcons are 0-1 in the former Boston College standout's only postseason game.
Green Bay advanced to this round after holding off Philadelphia, 21-16 on Sunday as one-point road underdogs. The Packers built an early 14-0 thanks to a pair of touchdown tosses by Aaron Rodgers, while unheralded rookie running back James Starks rushed for 123 yards. The Eagles rallied back to cut the deficit to five points in the final four minutes, but a late Michael Vick interception sealed the victory for Green Bay.
Mike McCarthy's club has basically been playing elimination games over the last three weeks after capturing home wins over the Giants and Bears to qualify for the postseason. The Packers will keep games close as all six losses are by four points or less. Unfortunately, that doesn't really apply for Saturday's contest at the Georgia Dome, as the line keeps dropping below a field goal.
The last meeting between these two teams was decided by three points when the Falcons knocked off the Packers in Atlanta, 20-17 in Week 12. This game came down to the wire as Rodgers tied things up with a 10-yard touchdown toss to Jordy Nelson, but Matt Bryant's field goal in the final seconds gave Atlanta a crucial victory. The Packers outgained the Falcons, 418-294, while Rodgers threw for 344 yards and ran in a touchdown.
The Falcons lost just three regular season games (all to playoff teams), as Atlanta finished the season with covers in seven of the final eight contests. As a favorite, the Falcons compiled a 10-4 ATS mark, while putting together a 7-2 ATS ledger as 'chalk' of six points or less.
Ryan's lone playoff appearance came in 2008 as the Falcons fell at Arizona, 30-24 in the Wild Card round as short underdogs. The Cards jumped out to a 14-3 lead after Kurt Warner threw a pair of long touchdowns, but the Falcons responded with two scores before the half to take a 17-14 advantage. Arizona outscored Atlanta, 16-2 in the second half to advance to the Divisional Playoffs en route to the Super Bowl.
The number from a totals standpoint that sticks out is Green Bay's 8-1 'under' mark on the road, including last week's 'under' at Philadelphia. Coincidentally, the lone 'over' cashed with Matt Flynn starting at quarterback in a 31-27 defeat at New England, while holding the other eight opponents to 20 points or less. Green Bay is listed as an underdog for just the fourth time this season, as the Packers own a 2-1 SU/ATS record when receiving points.
The Falcons are listed as 2 to 2 ½ point-favorites depending on where you shop, while there are several 1 ½ and 3's lingering out there. The total is set between 43 ½ and 44 ½, dropping down from the opening number of 45 ½. The game kicks off at 8:00 PM EDT from the Georgia Dome and will be televised nationally on FOX.
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