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**StarDust Bum** · 01-09-2011, 10:23 PM

Rest or Rust?

January 9, 2011

It seems like only yesterday when NFL playoff teams took the field with a week of rest against advancing Wild Card Round winners and proceeded directly to winners circle. But such is not the case today. As Bob Dylan so sagely put it, “The times are a-changin’.”

Don’t know if you’ve noticed but what was once a moneymaking proposition backing rested teams in the NFL postseason has turned into a stone-cold loser, instead. Perhaps it’s been an over-adjustment by the linesmaker. Or maybe it was an edge that was lost by teams that opted not to play their starters in season-ending games. Whatever the case, to ask them to ‘turn on the switch’ two weeks later simply isn’t working.

Let’s examine how these rested teams have fared in the playoffs since 1990, when the league shifted from a ten to a twelve-team playoff format. Here are the results. (Note - all rested teams were hosting unrested Wild Card round winners and dated listed are by ‘season’):

1990-2009
59-21 SU and 42-36-2 ATS

Overall, an unspectacular 54% winning effort against the number. However, let’s break down the numbers and take a closer look at how these same teams have fared over the past two decades:

1990-1999
33-7 SU and 24-15-1 ATS

2000-2008
26-14 SU and 18-21-1 ATS

Uh, oh. Do you see what I see? Like the BP oil rig, these well-rested home teams appear to be leaking oil at an alarming rate. In fact, over the last four years these teams appear to have blown a gasket, going just 8-8 SU and 5-11 ATS.

Now, what is your take on coaches resting starters in Weeks 16 or 17 of the season? So much for letting air out of the ‘momentum-balloon’.

My suggestion this week would be to take the time and carefully evaluate the four rested hosts and get a better perspective of their condition as they enter their opening round games. It could be time well spent…

**StarDust Bum** · 01-09-2011, 10:26 PM

NFL Playoff Odds: Seattle send Saints home

There won't be a Super Bowl rematch when the AFC and NFC champs meet at Cowboys Stadium on Feb. 6. The Seattle Seahawks and New York Jets made sure of that Saturday with victories on the opening day of the NFL playoffs.

Seattle, winners of the NFC West with a 7-9 record, overcame huge odds to take down the defending champion New Orleans Saints with a 41-36 win at Qwest Field. The Seahawks, 10-point underdogs, overcame an early 10-0 deficit to register one of the biggest upsets in NFL postseason history.

Matt Hasselbeck tossed four touchdowns, two to tight end John Carlson who also recovered a late onsides kick attempt to secure the victory. Marshawn Lynch broke tackle after tackle on a 67-yard TD run with a little more than three minutes remaining in the contest to give Seattle a 41-30 lead. Lynch finished the afternoon with 131 yards on 19 carries, the late scoring jaunt giving the Seahawks a 149-77 advantage over the Saints in the rushing yards column.

The loss left New Orleans 0-4 in playoff road games. Quarterback Drew Brees did everything he could to put the Saints in the winner's circle, completing 39-of-60 passes for over 400 yards and two scores.

Seattle now awaits the outcome of Sunday's NFC wild-card matchup between the Eagles and Packers in Philadelphia. A Green Bay win will send the Seahawks to Chicago next Sunday (Jan. 16); an Eagles win means Seattle will face the Falcons in Atlanta on Saturday (Jan. 15).

The Seahawks did not face the Eagles during the regular season and lost at home to the Falcons in Week 15, 34-18. Atlanta was a 5½-point favorite in that contest that went 'over' the 46½-point mark. Seattle has been a great friend to 'over' bettors with a 12-4-1 record to the high side.

A few hours after Seattle snuffed New Orleans' hopes, the Jets used a last-second field goal to upset the Colts on their home turf, 17-16. A scoreless first quarter gave way to a 7-0 Indianapolis lead at the half, courtesy of a Peyton Manning to Pierre Garcon 57-yard scoring strike. LaDainian Tomlinson scored twice in the second half on 1-yard runs to give New York a 14-10 lead with 10 minutes left. But a pair of Adam Vinatieri field goals, one a 50-yarder with just under a minute remaining in the contest, put the Colts back in front by a 16-14 count.

As it turned out, 53 seconds was long enough for Mark Sanchez to pass the Jets down the field and set up Nick Folk's 32-yard kick as time expired for the win. The winning kick was initially set up by Antonio Cromartie's 47-yard kickoff return following Vinatieri's field goal that gave Indy a short-lived lead.

The triumph avenged New York's loss on the same Lucas Oil Stadium field to the Colts in last season's AFC Championship. A two-point underdog to Indianapolis, the Jets saw their spread record move to 10-7 and the final score marked just the fifth 'under' in 17 New York battles this season.

Victory also means the Jets will next face the difficult task of winning in New England next Sunday against the top-seeded Patriots. The Pats were a perfect 8-0 in Foxboro, going 4-3-1 against the spread. New York and New England split their regular season meetings, each winning at home. It was no contest when the division foes met at Gillette Stadium in Week 13, a 45-3 rout by the Patriots as four-point chalk.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-10-2011, 08:07 PM

NFL Playoff Betting: Ravens, Steelers Round 3

The Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers will get to settle their brutal AFC North rivalry on the field when they kick off the divisional playoff round on Saturday afternoon.

Bookmaker.com has Pittsburgh as three-point home ‘chalk’ (minus 130) with a total of 36 ½-points. That’s easily the lowest total of the four weekend games.

Baltimore (13-4 straight-up, 9-7-1 against the spread) is coming off a dominant 30-7 win at Kansas City as three-point favorites. The Ravens trailed 7-3 before scoring a touchdown right before halftime. They then capitalized on four second-half turnovers for the blowout.

The Ravens appear to be peaking at the right time, winning five straight (4-1 ATS). They’re 6-3 SU and 6-2-1 ATS on the road this year.

Baltimore’s defense ranked third during the regular season in points allowed (16.9 PPG). The ‘D’ has allowed 10 points or less the last three games, helping the ‘under’ go 3-0. The ‘under’ is 6-2 in Baltimore’s last eight playoff games and 11-4-1 in its last 16 road tilts.

John Harbaugh is 3-0 SU and ATS during wild-card weekend in his three years as coach. He’s 1-1 SU and ATS in the divisional round, losing at Indianapolis last year (20-3) and winning at Tennessee (13-10) two years ago. That 2008 playoff run ended at Pittsburgh in the AFC title game, 23-14 as six-point ‘dogs.

Pittsburgh (12-4 SU, 10-6 ATS) started the year in tumultuous fashion with Ben Roethlisberger’s four-game suspension. However, it went 3-1 SU with its quarterback out and took the AFC North tiebreaker over Baltimore with a better division record.

The Steelers have also played well down the stretch. They’re 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven, with the only SU loss to the NY Jets (22-17) on Dec. 19. They’re 5-3 SU and ATS at home, compared to 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS away.

Coach Mike Tomlin had to be rooting for a Kansas City win yesterday, but this matchup provides better drama. All four divisional round contests are rematches of games this season. The Jets and Patriots are another division tilt, whose bad blood may even surpass this AFC North showdown.

Pittsburgh and Baltimore split the two meetings this year, with the road team winning and ‘covering’ each time. Roethlisberger was still suspended for the Oct. 3 home game, with Charlie Batch getting the start. Baltimore’s Joe Flacco had 256 yards passing and threw the game-winning touchdown with 32 seconds left for a 17-14 win.

Roethlisberger did play Dec. 5 in Baltimore, turning the trick with a game-winning pass with under three minutes remaining (13-10 win). Flacco had a huge late fumble that led to the Pittsburgh score. He has a whopping 11 turnovers in his seven career games against Pittsburgh.

Flacco and Baltimore are 0-5 SU (1-3-1 ATS) in games against Roethlisberger, 2-0 SU (1-1 ATS) with ‘Big Ben’ out. Six of the seven games have been decided by four points or less, so it’s likely to come down to a big play by one of the quarterbacks.

Baltimore fans would feel a lot better about getting the running game going with Ray Rice. However, Baltimore averaged just 58 yards rushing in the two games against Pittsburgh’s top-ranked run defense (62.8 YPG). Pitt did slightly better at 69 YPG rushing.

Baltimore could get back linebacker Tavares Gooden (shoulder injury) and safety Tom Zbikowski (back), but the defense won’t be hurt much if both backups are out. Pittsburgh defensive end Aaron Smith (tricep) could return after being gone since October.

Kickoff from Heinz Field will be 1:30 p.m. (PT) on CBS. Early weather reports have it in the 20s with a few snow showers.

**tech fan** · 01-10-2011, 09:04 PM

thanks for the write up buddy

**StarDust Bum** · 01-11-2011, 03:19 PM

Whatever i can find that can help us i'll post it TECH FAN......How we use it is another thing........

**StarDust Bum** · 01-11-2011, 07:55 PM

NFL Playoff Odds: Packers at Atlanta Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons had the best record in the NFC, were idle last week and host Green Bay in a divisional round playoff game Saturday night.

Even with all that going, the Falcons are just two-point favorites against the Packers. The ‘over/under’ is 45 ½. Game time is 5 p.m. PT on FOX.

The Packers have gained tremendous respect the past three weeks beating the New York Giants, 45-17 as three-point home favorites, defeating Chicago 10-3 as 11-point home ‘chalk’ and getting past Philadelphia on the road this past Sunday, 21-16 as two-point underdogs.

Atlanta is 13-3. The Falcons are 20-2 at Georgia Dome with Matt Ryan as their starting quarterback. They are much healthier than Green Bay.

But the 11-6, sixth-seeded Packers are highly dangerous because quarterback Aaron Rodgers is hot and their well-coached defense under coordinator Dom Capers is playing at a high level despite multiple injuries.

Rodgers had the third-highest passer rating, while ranking seventh in passing yards at 3,922 and throwing 28 touchdown passes. He has an eight-to-one touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last three games, including throwing for three scores against the Eagles. He could be highly effective playing on carpet inside Atlanta’s dome stadium.

Sparked by Rodgers and a defense that ranked second in fewest points allowed, Green Bay had a plus 148 scoring differential. This was second-best in the league next to New England. The Packers accomplished this despite having 15 players on injured reserve.

Green Bay is 25-12-1 ATS in its past 38 road contests and 15-5-1 ATS as a road ‘dog. But what makes the Packers really dangerous is they finally launched an effective ground game, something that had been missing all season.

Rookie James Stark rushed for 123 yards on 23 carries against the Eagles, achieving a season-high for a Packer runner. Now the Falcons have to worry about Rodgers’ play-action something they weren’t concerned with when the teams met at Georgia Dome on Nov. 28.

The Falcons won that game, 20-17, as 2 1/2-point favorites on a 47-yard field goal by Matt Bryant with nine seconds left. The combined 37 points went ‘under’ the 47 ½-point total.

The Packers never led in that game, but outgained the Falcons by 124 yards. Green Bay tied the Falcons with 56 seconds left on a 10-yard touchdown pass from Rodgers to Jordy Nelson.

Ryan had his fifth-best passer rating of the season at 107.9 against the Packers completing 24 of 28 passes for 197 yards and one touchdown. Michael Turner rushed for 110 yards on 23 carries with one touchdown.

Ryan has a 28-to-nine touchdown-to-interception ratio on the season. Roddy White led the league with 115 receptions, an Atlanta team record. The Falcons surrendered just 23 sacks, third-lowest in the league.

Since Mike Smith took over as head coach three seasons ago, the Falcons have won 20 of 24 home games. They have covered seven of the past eight times they’ve been favored.

Atlanta’s defense has shown improvement down the stretch recording 12 sacks with seven interceptions and giving up an average of only 185.6 yards per game during the last five games. The Falcons had eight of those sacks in two games against Carolina, which had the worst offense in the NFL and started overmatched rookie quarterback Jimmy Clausen.

The Falcons have committed just seven turnovers in their last nine games.

The Packers ranked fifth in total defense and were sixth in takeaways with 32. Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams are one of the best cornerback tandems in the NFL.

The Packers hadn’t won a road playoff game since Jan. 11, 1998 until defeating the Eagles.

The ‘under’ has cashed in eight of Green Bay’s past nine road games. The ‘over’ is 7-2-2 in Atlanta’s last 11 contests.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-11-2011, 07:58 PM

Divisional Playoff Notes
January 10, 2011

It might surprise those of the ESPN generation that there was a time when there was no postseason knockout format featuring multiples of teams, or that the pro football season would conclude before the New Year's bowl games. But aside from the odd conference playoff game necessitated by a tie in the standings, the NFL (and the pre-1969 AFL) used to have no playoff tourney per se, the postseason consisting of only the league title game, always held in late December. The only pro football played after January 1 in those days were the league All-Star games, including the NFL's Pro Bowl, annually held at the Los Angeles Coliseum...not an exotic venue like Honolulu.
Last week we spoke of how former commissioner Pete Rozelle helped usher in a new era of the NFL postseason when dividing the league into four divisions for the 1967 season, adding a conference title game before the league championship battle and Super Bowl date vs. the AFL winner. Thus, in a sense, the pro football playoffs as we know them really began in 1967. And from the outset, this week's round of games (which qualified as the conference title games between 1967-69) have had a familiar theme.

As competitive as these games look on the surface, they often become one-sided affairs.

We'll be talking more about the playoff "blowout" phenomenon in the coming weeks, as unexpected lopsided scores were also occurring in the NFL's more-abbreviated postseason (one game) long before Rozelle hatched his expanded playoff idea 43 years ago. But 1967 proved something of a road map for playoff results that we have often seen repeated through the years. Indeed, these matchups often disappoint in terms of tense, down-to-the-wire affairs.

Rozelle's first game of the "new" playoff generation was the '67 Western Conference final, held at, of all places, Milwaukee's old County Stadium, where the Packers hosted the Rams. It was a quick rematch from a thriller two weeks earlier won by the Rams at the Coliseum, 27-24, a result that kept L.A. alive in the Coastal Division and set up a showdown the following week vs. Johnny Unitas' Baltimore Colts, who took an unbeaten (but twice-tied) team into L.A. for the final week showdown. The Rams then won the Coastal in a gleeful 34-10 romp, but there was still a buzz about the Green Bay game two weeks earlier, a dramatic back-and-forth battle that featured a blocked Donny Anderson punt in the final minute by L.A.'s Tony Guillory. Claude Crabb's subsequent return to the 5-yard line and Roman Gabriel's 2nd-down TD pass to Bernie Casey were the final pieces to a classic that earned the cover in the following week's Sports Illustrated. The Rams' radio play-by-play man, a then-young Dick Enberg, has said that the "blocked punt game" was the most dramatic of his long broadcast career. No wonder there was such anticipation for L.A.'s playoff rematch against the defending champs!

George Allen's Rams, however, were a spent force in Milwaukee following that emotional conclusion to the regular season. After L.A. missed an opportunity early in the 2nd Q deep in Green Bay territory to add to a 7-0 lead, momentum swung to the Pack. The trigger was an unlikely source, rookie RB Travis Williams, who had set the league ablaze with his kick return exploits that season (a 41-yard average and 4 TDs, including one in the memorable penultimate regular-season game vs. the Rams). Williams broke a 46-yard TD run to level matters at 7 midway through the 2nd Q, and Green Bay had re-established control. QB Bart Starr, in one of his best postseason efforts, then put the Packers up 14-7 before halftime with an 18-yard TD pass to Carroll Dale. Starr continued his effectiveness into the 2nd half en route to completing 17 of 23 passes for 222 yards, but the real story was the Ray Nitschke-led Packer defense, which shut down Rams runners Dick Bass and Les Josephson (who gained only 64 yards on 23 carries between them) and began to harass a frustrated Gabriel, who could complete only 11 of 31 passes in a performance that was hardly reminiscent of the MVP campaign he had enjoyed. Green Bay put the game out of reach with short second-half TD runs by Chuck Mercein and Williams again for a dominating 28-7 win, one that HC Vince Lombardi said was one of the most satisfying of his storied career.

If Rams-Packers was a bit of a letdown, the following day's Browns-Cowboys Eastern Conference showdown didn't even qualify as that much. Dallas jumped out quickly at the Cotton Bowl on Christmas Eve, with short TDs by RB Craig Baynham (on a 3-yard pass from QB Don Meredith) and Don Perkins staking the Cowboys to an early 14-0 lead in a game that would soon become a rout. The avalanche really commenced with Meredith's 86-yard TD bomb to "Bullet" Bob Hayes in the 2nd Q that boosted Tom Landry's team to an insurmountable 21-0 edge. Cleveland could simply not keep pace in an eventual 52-14 Dallas romp, and the "new era" of Rozelle's expanded playoffs had begun, however one-sided the results had been.

(Browns fans, however, had the last laugh on Dallas before the merger, comfortably winning rematches in the next two Eastern title games in '68 and '69, the latter a lopsided 38-14 blowout in a return to the Cotton Bowl).

Not all division-round playoff games, however, have been wipeouts through the years. Indeed, some of the all-time pro football classics have been division-round battles, including what still stands as the NFL's longest-ever game in 1971, the classic back-and-forth on Christmas Day between the Chiefs and Dolphins that Miami finally won, 27-24. It would also be hard to top the dramatics in 1972, when Franco Harris' 60-yard "Immaculate Reception" TD in the final seconds gave the Steelers an improbable 13-7 win over the Raiders. A little-known sidebar to the "Immaculate Reception" was that it preceded the first-ever "booth review," sort of, as referees got on the phone to call league officials in the press box to make sure they correctly saw and interpreted Harris' miracle catch, which some Raider fans (plus coach John Madde and owner Al Davis) to this day believe should have been ruled incomplete if Terry Bradshaw's pass had indeed bounced off RB Frenchy Fuqua (which in those days would have made Harris' subsequent catch an illegal touch) and not off DB Jack Tatum. In 1981, Miami was involved in another OT classic, this time falling short to San Diego in a 41-38 thriller marked by the heroics of Charger TE Kellen Winslow in what is still what we believe might have been the best-ever pro playoff game.

Still, the lopsided "epidemic" has been recurring throughout the years, and it resurfaced last season when three of the four division-round games were one-sided affairs. That was particularly true in the NFC, where the Saints blasted the Cardinals 45-14 and the Vikings pounded the Cowboys, 34-3. Interestingly, none of those four NFC semi-finalists made it back as far this season. Indeed, more than half of the division-round games (72 of 140) since 1975 have been decided by more than 10 points.

Last year's success by three of the four home favorites in the division round also reversed a recent pattern that had seen road underdogs cover 10 of 12 games between 2006-08. For most of their history, Division Round games have been the territory of home teams and favorites (almost always one and the same), but that dominance is not as pronounced as it once was. Even with last year's subpar flameout by the road dogs, they've still held a 17-11 spread advantage over the home chalk in division-round games since 2003.

There are some dynamics worth mentioning that are unique to this round. Since 1990, when the playoffs were expanded from 10 teams to 12, all Division Round hosts have been off a "bye" and a week of rest. And almost all of the "powerhouse" NFL teams in recent memory are from that first-round "bye" group, including 51 of the last 64 Super Bowl participants since '78 (when the first-round "bye" was introduced). At least one top seed, however, had met defeat division-round action in the four seasons prior to a year ago, when the Saints and Colts both prevailed. The Falcons and Patriots are thus forewarned. But, recalling the often-lopsided nature of these games, don't be surprised by an absence of drama this weekend, either.

Whatever. Following are the point-spread results in various spread categories of NFL Division Round playoff games since 1975. Our "charting" begins with the '75 season because, prior to then, playoff home teams were predetermined in a divisional rotation, as opposed to the better won-loss record. A "margin of victory" chart for the games since 1975 is included as well.

CATEGORY... RESULT

Favorites vs. line...71-65-3 (1 pick)
Favorites straight up...97-42
Favored by 0-3 points...8-13-1
Favored by 3 1/2-6 1/2 points...25-22-1
Favored by 7-9 1/2 points...26-18
Favored by 10-13 1/2 points...10-8
Favored by 14 points or more...3-3-1
Home teams straight up...99-41
Home teams vs. spread...73-64-3
Home favorites vs. spread...69-62-3
Home underdogs vs. spread...3-2
Home picks vs. spread...1-0
Over/under (since 1986)...49-47

MARGINS OF VICTORY

1-3 points...34
4-6 points...11
7-10 points... 23
11-13 points...10
14 points or more...62

**StarDust Bum** · 01-11-2011, 08:00 PM

Patriots play it safe with bland comments

January 11, 2011

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. (AP) - Strictly speaking, the New England Patriots prefer bland to brash.

Let Rex Ryan and his loose-lipped New York Jets do the talking. Bill Belichick and his players prepare for a game, not a debate.

``Everybody's got their own style,'' the Patriots coach said Monday.

Belichick's style is a strict one: advising players on how to handle questions, monitoring their comments and imposing gag orders on those who stray far from the party line.

``Rex does a great job with his team. I'm just trying to coach mine,'' Belichick said when asked about Ryan's approach. ``I'm not really worried about what anybody else is doing. Is that the answer you're looking for?''

No, the reporter on the conference call answered.

Belichick just laughed.

``When he speaks to us, he just speaks the truth,'' Patriots quarterback Tom Brady said Monday during his weekly appearance on WEEI radio. ``The only people that can really change the fate of what we are able to do each week are the guys sitting in the room.''

Ryan makes no apologies for his brash talk - from saying he didn't come to New York ``to kiss Bill Belichick's rings'' to Monday's remark that Sunday's divisional playoff game between the Jets and the Patriots ``is about Bill Belichick vs. Rex Ryan.''

At least on the sidelines.

``I might have a little quickness on him. He's probably got a little more strength and power on me,'' Belichick said. ``I don't think you'll see either one of us out there making any blocks or tackles or runs or throws or catches.''

The Patriots lost to the Jets 28-14 on Sept. 19, then beat them 45-3 on Dec. 6.

After the Jets advanced to Sunday's game in Foxborough with a 17-16 victory over the Indianapolis Colts on Saturday night, tight end Dustin Keller said, ``We've been wanting the Patriots for a while now.''

Belichick wants any pregame comments that might motivate an opponent kept in-house, not posted on the other team's bulletin board.

Why risk providing extra incentive or giving tips about the Patriots' strategy or injuries?

``It's a control of, 'Hey, here is the message of the team. Here is what we want to get out, here is our belief system, let's communicate this,''' said former Patriots fullback Heath Evans, now with the New Orleans Saints. ``We were not going to talk about what can hurt this team.''

Evans was a go-to guy for reporters during his four seasons with the Patriots, unfailingly cooperative and articulate - until he apparently said too much and Belichick cut him off.

Offensive lineman Ryan O'Callaghan, a fifth-round draft pick in 2006, talked freely one day early that season. A week later, he said Belichick told him not to talk.

And this season cornerback Kyle Arrington, cheerful and available to reporters, told them one day that he wasn't allowed to be interviewed.

One Patriots player who could get away with criticizing an opponent the week before a game was safety Rodney Harrison, but he usually backed it up with jarring hits and pass break ups.

Belichick, he said, never tried to silence him.

``He says that no matter what anyone is talking about it's just talk,'' said Harrison, now an analyst for NBC's Football Night in America. ``Don't get distracted by that.''

The Patriots couldn't help but listen three years ago when Pittsburgh safety Anthony Smith guaranteed a win. They were 12-0 at the time and headed toward an 18-0 season before losing the Super Bowl. Asked about the comments, Harrison said before that game, ``Who was it?''

Told it was Smith, Harrison said, ``Never heard of him.''

The Patriots won the game 34-13 behind Brady, who tossed four touchdown passes. Smith messed up the coverage on a 63-yard score to Randy Moss and a 56-yarder to Jabar Gaffney. After another scoring pass, Brady ran downfield and jawed facemask-to-facemask with Smith.

After the game, the quarterback wouldn't repeat what he said.

``If my mother reads it,'' he said, ``she wouldn't be very happy.''

Even Belichick, in a rare public slam at an opponent, leveled one at Smith.

``We've played against a lot better safeties than him,'' he said.

Those remarks came during and after the game. You won't hear that kind of talk from the Patriots before Sunday's game. There's too much at stake.

``We're all at the point this year where we're motivated by much more than what people may say to us, or about us,'' Brady said. ``We're motivated by the fact that we've got a great opportunity to be playing a division rival at home for the most important game of the year.''

Brady did take a swipe at the Jets last summer, saying he hadn't watched ``Hard Knocks,'' the television show about New York's training camp, because ``I hate the Jets.''

But that was a month before they played each other.

On Sunday, they need to control the Jets' running game that gained 169 yards last Sunday against the Colts. Receivers need to get open against cornerback Darrelle Revis, who held Reggie Wayne to one catch for 1 yard after he led the AFC with 111 receptions.

``They'll be coming in with a lot of confidence on Sunday, which they should,'' Belichick said in his usual monotone.

Nice and bland. Just the way he likes it.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-11-2011, 08:02 PM

Bears receivers out to prove something

January 11, 2011

LAKE FOREST, Ill. (AP) - Earl Bennett has a chip on his shoulder and so do the rest of the Bears' receivers.

They're tired of hearing Chicago lacks a go-to target. All they know is the Bears are back in the playoffs for the first time in four years and will host Seattle on Sunday in a divisional game.

They believe they had something to do with that.

``We always carry a chip on our shoulder,'' Bennett said. ``Last year, we carried a chip and it just rolled over to this year. We keep hearing the same thing - the Chicago Bears ain't got no receivers, ain't got no receivers. We all feel like everyone in this room is a No. 1 and we've just got to continue to go out and prove everybody wrong.''

Well, here's their chance.

Whether the Bears decide to go after a top receiver is an issue for the offseason. The group in place has at least contributed this season, helping Chicago earn a first-round bye.

The top three receivers have combined for 137 receptions and 1,996 yards with 12 touchdowns, and while the Bears seem to have given up on the idea of Devin Hester becoming their No. 1 target, he's back to his record-setting ways on returns.

That's a huge development. His contributions on offense - 40 catches, 475 yards, four TDs - are more of a bonus, with the Bears leaning on Bennett and Johnny Knox.

Knox emerged as the primary deep threat with 51 catches for 960 yards, including 17 for 20 yards or more.

``He's just becoming more of a complete receiver,'' quarterback Jay Cutler said. ``He's kind of one of those guys you can count on. If he's got one-on-one, he's going to win. ... He's done all year when his number is called, he's in the right spot.''

The same goes for Bennett, particularly on third downs.

Bennett's receptions (46) and yards (561) are down from last season, when he caught 54 passes for 717 yards, but he has emerged as the Bears' top option when they need to keep drives going. He had 11 receptions on third downs over the final nine games of the regular season, all for first downs.

``I just try to make myself available, being quarterback friendly, just finding the spots and the holes,'' said Bennett, who sat out the final regular-season game at Green Bay with an ankle injury. ``(Offensive coordinator Mike) Martz has done a good job with the game plan, setting people up, putting us in the right position to be successful.''

Some of the biggest questions coming into the season centered on a group of young receivers who had shown some promise but were still unproven.

There was no established go-to threat, and many wondered how they would adapt to Martz's system, where precision and timing determine a play's success or failure. Fair or not, the perception in the past was the receivers did not hit their spots, leading to breakdowns, and when Minnesota cut Randy Moss in early November, that stirred a debate in Chicago.

The Bears were a mess at the time, dropping three of four after a 3-0 start, and at least some fans thought they should go after the controversial receiver. Instead of taking a big chance, they took a good look at what they were doing during their off week.

They cut back on the deep drops by Cutler, who was taking a pounding, and committed to the run. They also figured out a rotation on the offensive line.

That reduced the wear and tear on Cutler and kept defenses off-balance, which in turn created openings on the ground and in the air.

The receivers did their part, particularly Knox and Bennett. Now, they're about to get their first taste of the postseason.

``Both these receivers made enormous strides,'' Martz said. ``(Receivers coach Darryl Drake) has done a great job of the details; I've never been around a receivers coach like Darryl who's so detail-oriented, that really understands what the quarterback's trying to do. You tell those guys you have to play this game through the eyes of the quarterback, and our guys, I think, certainly do those things.''

For Bennett, these are busy times.

Along with preparing for the game, he was getting ready for the birth of his first child, a son. So he had plenty on his mind to go with that chip on the shoulder.

``There are a lot of guys who wish they were on this team,'' Bennett said. ``Everybody in here plays together. Nobody worries about who's the No. 1 receiver. Nobody worries about statistics. We just go out, play hard. If we win, that's all that matters.''

**StarDust Bum** · 01-11-2011, 08:06 PM

Ravens geared to stop Roethlisberger
January 11, 2011

OWINGS MILLS, Md. (AP) - Ben Roethlisberger has a knack for beating the Baltimore Ravens.

The Ravens have tried just about everything to slow the Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback - even breaking his nose - but they haven't been able to break his spirit. Roethlisberger is 8-2 as a starter against Baltimore and has won six straight since 2006.

Last month, albeit quite accidentally, Ravens defensive tackle Haloti Ngata broke Roethlisberger's nose on the Steelers' opening series. Roethlisberger shrugged off the injury, played the entire game and threw the decisive touchdown pass in Pittsburgh's 13-10 victory.

The Steelers and Ravens meet again Saturday in the second round of the playoffs. It will be the third game of the season between the AFC North rivals, and Baltimore's hopes of winning hinge heavily upon stopping Roethlisberger.

``We're going to get after him like we always do. It's going to be really important,'' coach John Harbaugh said. ``That's the key to stopping him: You've got to get him down. You can't let him extend plays.''

The 6-foot-5, 241-pound Roethlisberger looks more like a tight end than a quarterback, and he would rather run through a tackler than slide to a halt. In that December game against the Ravens, he entered with an injured right foot and left with a shattered nose, yet still got the job done in a game that propelled Pittsburgh to the division title.

``I was glad we broke his nose,'' Harbaugh said with a wry grin, ``and I was very impressed he played through it. Obviously, you can throw very effectively with a broken nose. He proved that.''

Baltimore has defeated Pittsburgh three times over the past four seasons, and in each instance Roethlisberger missed the game. He was inactive in a 27-21 loss in 2007 because the Steelers had already clinched a playoff berth; he was sidelined with a concussion in a 20-17 defeat last year; and he sat out the first matchup this season while serving an NFL-issued suspension for violating the league's conduct policy.

Now Roethlisberger is eager to extend a winning streak against the Ravens that he finds as perplexing as a Chinese crossword puzzle.

``I don't think there's any magic recipe other than I guess I'm lucky,'' Roethlisberger said Tuesday. ``That's all there is.''

Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin said, ``I don't read too much into those things. Ben has won a lot of games here, period. So, I don't think it's anything that he has over the Baltimore Ravens or anything of that nature.''

The quarterback known as Big Ben has mixed feelings about facing the Ravens. Roethlisberger enjoys the intensity of participating in a game between two very good teams that despise each other and love to hit, but winning is never easy.

``As a competitor, you love it. But heck no, I hate playing the Ravens because they're so good,'' he said. ``On defense, every single person and every scheme, everything they do, it challenges you. As a competitor, you like that challenge. But they're good.''

After he struggled to the sideline last month during that game in Baltimore, Roethlisberger stuffed a couple of wads of cotton in his nose and prepared for the next series. When he got back on the field, he mistakenly blamed Ravens tackle Kelly Gregg for the hard hit.

It was an oversight he intends to make amends for on Saturday.

``I have to apologize to Kelly Gregg when I see him on the field because I was giving him a hard time,'' Roethlisberger said. ``I was joking about how I was going to send him the bill; no way was it on purpose.''

The Ravens again intend to keep it clean in their effort to chase Roethlisberger out of the pocket.

``I am not going to say I wish him success or anything, or to have a good game or nothing like that,'' Ravens linebacker Terrell Suggs said. ``But we don't want to see anyone get hurt.''

The Suggs vs. Roethlisberger matchup is a rivalry within a rivalry.

``He and I usually battle it out, and these are always good games,'' the quarterback said. ``I like his tenacity. He's tough and physical. We know all that stuff, but he never stops. His motor never stops going. He's a tough guy, and I like playing against him. We talk a little bit to each other out there, I won't call it trash talking, but we talk to each other. So it's a lot of fun.''

Asked if he could remember the last time he lost to the Ravens, Roethlisberger replied, ``I don't like losing. I remember all my losses.''

Over the past four years, however, his memories have all been positive.

``You know what? Anytime these two teams play, the winner walks off the field feeling pretty good about themselves,'' he said. ``I know that because I know some of the guys over there and I know what this rivalry means. It's always a big-time game.''

**StarDust Bum** · 01-11-2011, 08:07 PM

Falcons brave storm to practice for Pack

January 11, 2011

ATLANTA (AP) - A winter storm that closed schools, government buildings and businesses in the Atlanta area couldn't stop the Falcons from their first chance to prepare for the Packers.

The storm dropped several inches of snow and ice Sunday night and Monday, shutting down much of north Georgia. It was a snow day for schools, but the Falcons had no time for a day off. They face Green Bay in a divisional-round playoff game Saturday night.

It was time to get going on the game-week schedule.

``Today, some people could have taken the day off and not showed up,'' said wide receiver Roddy White. ``But our team is focused and ready to go. ... I'm just happy we could get everybody in and on the same page.''

Coach Mike Smith said good teamwork made the practice possible. Players carpooled in vehicles best equipped for the conditions, and at least one player was rescued by a teammate as most of them made it to Monday's practice at the team's indoor facility in Flowery Branch.

``Our guys did a great job of carpooling and picking each other up,'' Smith said. ``We had all but two. We actually tried to get two of them picked up but the roads were closed. They weren't letting anyone in.''

Smith wouldn't identify the two missing players. But it was defensive end Kroy Biermann who used his truck to pull John Abraham's car out of the ditch on the way to the team's indoor facility north of Atlanta.

``They just laughed and joked about it,'' White said. ``Biermann has one of the biggest trucks on the team, so he can get anybody out of the ditch.''

Abraham posted a photo of the rescue on Twitter and wrote ``to the rescue lol teamwork.''

The Falcons have apartments on their practice facility property that players use in training camp. Smith said he did not believe it was necessary for them to use the apartments Monday night as a safeguard against more dangerous travel on Tuesday.

``The guys are going home,'' Smith said. ``We're banking on it clearing up. The weathermen say it's going to move out. I think guys will make sure they carpool in with guys who have vehicles that are better suited for this type of weather.''

The game Saturday night at the Georgia Dome will be a rematch of Atlanta's 20-17 win over the Packers in Atlanta on Nov. 28.

Matt Ryan competed a career-best 86 percent of his passes - 24 of 28 - for 198 yards and a touchdown against the Packers. Michael Turner had 110 yards rushing and a touchdown. The Falcons won on Matt Bryant's 47-yard field goal with 9 seconds remaining.

White said Turner is the key for Atlanta.

``If we can get the run game going, it can make it a whole lot easier,'' White said.

The Falcons are the No. 1 seed in the NFC for the first time since 1980, and were off last week as they watched Seattle beat New Orleans and Green Bay beat Philadelphia.

Smith said he was impressed as he watched Packers rookie James Starks run for 123 yards in the 21-16 win over Michael Vick and the Eagles.

``That's the thing I think will make them even more dangerous,'' Smith said. ``With the way they're running the football, they have a chance to be even more multidimensional.

``They ran the ball probably as effectively as they've run it all season.''

**StarDust Bum** · 01-13-2011, 05:44 PM

NFL Playoff Odds: Jets and Patriots collide

The New York Jets and coach Rex Ryan are turning up the rhetoric big-time as they visit the hated New England Patriots on Sunday afternoon.

Bookmaker.com has New England as 8 ½-point home ‘chalk’ with a total of 44 ½-points. The Jets are plus 330 to win and advance to the AFC title game.

Ryan has led New York to a 12-5 straight-up record (10-7 against the spread) and has the Jets back in the divisional round after making the AFC title game last year. Those are solid accomplishments in just his second year with the team.

Ryan’s style is unorthodox to say the least, creating a loose atmosphere that filters down to his assistant coaches and players. The phrases ‘Tripgate’ and ‘Footgate’ have become common across the country and are just two of the many transgressions this year.

None of that seems to have humbled Ryan a bit, in fact just the opposite. He’s going out of his way to bait coach Bill Belichick and Tom Brady this week and even Jets cornerback Antonio Cromartie got into the act by calling the New England quarterback an ‘ass----.’

Ryan has either gone completely off the deep end or there’s a method to his madness. The latter is more likely as he tries to deflect attention from the 45-3 Jets loss at New England on December 6 when Ryan was again leading the pre-game trash-talking.

The Jets seemed shell-shocked after that defeat, losing to Miami the next week 10-6 as five-point home favorites. However, they bounced back big with a 22-17 win at Pittsburgh and proved their road toughness again with a 17-16 win (as one-point underdogs) at Indianapolis last week during wild-card weekend.

The Jets are 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS on the road this year. They’re 3-1 SU and ATS in road playoffs games the last two years and put a huge scare into Indy last season before falling apart in the second half (30-17 loss as eight-points ‘dogs).

New England (14-2 SU, 10-5-1 ATS) has a completely different culture under Belichick, refusing to get into a public war of words. The Jets’ comments will certainly make good ‘bulletin board’ material, but ultimately matters little with the game decided between the lines.

The Patriots are a perfect 8-0 SU at home this year (4-3-1 ATS). The offense leads the NFL at 32.4 PPG and is even better at home (34 PPG). The ‘over’ is 7-1 in home games and 13-3 on the year. The ‘over’ is 8-1 in Jets’ road games, only going ‘under’ the 44 point total last week.

The New England offense got reworked after trading receiver Randy Moss back in October and acquiring Deion Branch. It’s a short-to-medium length attack with Brady dishing out 40-plus receptions to four-guys. There’s also a balanced running game with BenJarvus Green-Ellis (1,008 rushing yards) and the diminutive Danny Woodhead.

The Jets defense really struggled in the December meeting with Brady throwing for 326 yards, four TDS and no picks. The Jets picked off Brady twice in Week 2’s 28-14 home win. Both came when Brady tried to force the ball down the field to Moss.

The Patriots have an eight-game winning streak (6-2 ATS) since getting embarrassed at Cleveland (34-14) on November 7. They have just 10 total turnovers, a record for 16 games. Brady has a record 335 straight passes without an interception.

New York can’t count on getting turnovers in this game, but it must run successfully with the combination of LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene. They combined for 152 rushing yards against Indy last week and dominated the second half as the team took the ball out of Mark Sanchez’ hands. Running the ball will chew up clock and keep Brady on the sidelines.

Sanchez needs to play a lot better than last week (62.4 quarterback rating) and in the December New England game (27.8 rating). The Patriots ranked 25th in yards allowed during the regular season (366.5 YPG), but finished eighth in points allowed (19.6 PPG).

The Pats young defense also improved greatly as the year went on, allowing 9.4 PPG the last five games. However some of the young talent is playing in their first playoff game, while other’s only experience was last year’s 33-14 home debacle to Baltimore.

New England is thin on the DL with backups Mike Wright (concussion) and Ron Brace (elbow) out. Myron Pryor (back) is also questionable. New York received a big recent blow with right tackle Damien Woody (Achilles) out for the year.

Kickoff from Gillette Stadium will be 1:30 p.m. (PT) on CBS. Weather reports have it clear and in the 20s.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-13-2011, 05:45 PM

NFL Playoff Betting: Seahawks at Chicago Bears

Burned last week by wagering against Seattle?

It is tempting to go against 8-9 the Seahawks again Sunday when they meet rested Chicago at 10 a.m. PT on FOX in a division round NFL playoff matchup.

The Seahawks pulled a stunning upset beating New Orleans, 41-36, as 9 ½-point home underdogs.

Now the Seahawks are 10-point underdogs. The ‘over/under’ is 41. The spread is similar to last week. There’s a big difference though: Seattle is on the road.

The Seahawks are 5-19, 7-17 ATS the past three seasons away from Qwest Field, the loudest outdoor stadium in the NFL.

Seattle lost and failed to cover in six of its eight road contests this year. Most of the Seahawks’ road losses weren’t close either. Seattle’s average road defeat was by 18.6 points a game.

If you discount a 34-13 away victory against San Francisco, the Seahawks averaged 14 points on the road this season.

An early start time isn’t beneficial either to Seattle, which is 5-15 in non-division road games that begin at 10 a.m. PT since 2005.

Seattle did, however, defeat Chicago at Solider Field, 23-20, in Week 6 as six-point ‘dogs. The combined 43 points went ‘over’ the 37 ½-point total. It was Seattle’s most well-rounded victory and marked its lone win against a playoff team during the regular season.

That victory should give the Seahawks some confidence, especially following their win against defending world champion New Orleans.

Aging Matt Hasselbeck surprised the Saints by throwing four touchdowns. Hasselbeck will be making his 11th playoff start.

Bears quarterback Jay Cutler has never started a playoff game during his five years in the league. Quarterbacks making their first start in the playoffs since 2003 are 5-19.

Cutler threw 23 touchdown passes in 15 games, but was picked off 16 times. The Seahawks sacked Cutler six times in their victory. Cutler attempted 47 passes in that game as the Bears ran just 12 times.

Expect a much more balanced Chicago attack this time.

Since Week 9, following their bye, the Bears have played much better going 7-2 after opening 4-3. There were a number of key factors for the turnaround.

Before their bye, the Bears ran just 38.8 percent of the time. After their bye, Chicago ran 50.8 percent of the time. Matt Forte had a strong season rushing for 1,069 yards and catching 51 passes for 547 yards, while accounting for nine touchdowns.

The Bears also made several changes in their offensive line to tighten pass protection. Cutler, always streaky, had a passer rating above 100 in four of his last five games.

Star linebacker Lance Briggs also got healthy after missing the Seahawks game. Briggs, linebacker Brian Urlacher, still a force at 32, and defensive end Julius Peppers give the Bears the three best defensive players on the field for this matchup.

The Bears have nine players with playoff experience on defense, but only three on offense.

Chicago ranked fourth in fewest points allowed at 17.9 per game, ranked third in takeaways with 35 and was ninth in total defense giving up 314.3 yards per contest.

Seattle coach Pete Carroll has had to play musical chairs with his battered offensive line all season. The result was the Seahawks finishing 31st in rushing and 28th in total offense. Seattle didn’t have a 100-yard rushing performance until Marshawn Lynch ran for 131 yards on 19 carries against New Orleans last week.

Seattle was out-scored by 97 points, the fifth-worst scoring differential in the league. The Seahawks also were out-gained by 1,183 yards, an average of 73.9 yards per game.

The forecast is for temperatures in the teens with a 20 percent chance of snow and seven mph winds.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-13-2011, 06:01 PM

Divisional Playoff Tech Trends
January 12, 2011

BALTIMORE at PITTSBURGH... Last four meetings all decided by exactly 3 points. Underdog side is 6-1-1 vs. number last 8 in series. Last three meetings "under" after 6 of previous 7 had gone "over." Ravens 4-2 SU and vs. line in postseason since ‘08, Steelers 7-1 vs. spread in playoffs since ‘05. Tech edge-slight to Ravens and "under," based on series and "totals" trends.

GREEN BAY at ATLANTA... Packers 3-1 vs. line as dog this season, 16-5 vs. spread in role since ‘07, and 19-5 last 24 as dog since late in ‘06 campaign. Falcons, however, are 10-4 as home chalk since last season, and 21-9 overall as chalk since HC Mike Smith arrived in 2008. Pack "under" 11-6 this season. Tech edge-slight to "under," based on "totals" trends.

SEATTLE at CHICAGO... Seahawks just 2-6 vs. line on road this season, and all nine of their losses have been by 15 points or more. Seattle now 3-14 vs. number on road since late in the ‘08 campaign. Seahawks "over" 12-4-1 this season, and "over" 13-5 last 18 as visitor. Bears 6-2 vs. line last 8 in 2010. Tech edge-"Over" and Bears, based on "totals" and Seahawks’ road trends.

NY JETS at NEW ENGLAND... Belichick surprisingly has dropped his last five playoff pointspread decisions, although Patriots roared down stretch this season, covering 10 of last 13. Interestingly, Jets and Patriots have split their regular-season pointspread decisions the past five years, with home teams winning and covering all such games the past two years. Rex Ryan 8-5 as dog since ‘09. Belichick "over" 15-3 last 18 since late in ‘09 campaign, Jets "over" 16-6 last 22 since late ‘09, and these two were "over" in both of their 2010 meetings. Tech edge-"Over," based on "totals" trends.

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