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**StarDust Bum** · 01-08-2011, 11:19 AM

Michigan State looks for 3-0 Big Ten start at Penn State

MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (10-4)

at PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS (8-6)

Tip-off: Saturday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Michigan State -6.5, Total: 132.5

Michigan State looks to keep its Big Ten momentum going when it visits Penn State on Saturday afternoon.

After finishing the non-conference schedule with four losses, the Spartans are 2-0 in league play after victories over Minnesota, 71-62, on Dec. 31 and Northwestern, 65-62, this past Monday. Draymond Green (12.2 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 42.4% three-pointers) had 15 points and 11 rebounds against the Wildcats, while Kalin Lucas (14.4 PPG) finished with his fifth straight double-digit scoring game, and 11th of the season, with 12 points. Durrell Summers, MSU's leading scorer at 15.2 PPG, also had 12 points versus Northwestern, but shot only 4-of-14 from the field and has hit on just 14-of-41 FG (34%) in his past three games. One of the keys to Michigan State's Big Ten success has been its improved defense, and freshman Keith Appling's (5.9 PPG) insertion into the starting lineup is one of the big reasons why. Appling scored eight points to go along with five rebounds and five blocked shots against the Wildcats, who shot 31.6% from the floor and were outrebounded, 45-33.

Meanwhile, Penn State has lost four of its past five games behind an offense that has struggled to find any kind of rhythm. The Nittany Lions are last in the Big Ten in scoring (66.4 PPG) and second-to-last in rebounding (33.9 RPG). They are led by Talor Battle, the Big Ten's leading scorer, averaging 21.1 PPG. Battle also pulls down 5.1 RPG, and had 18 points in an 83-68 loss to Purdue on Wednesday. It marked his 10th straight game, and 13th in 14th overall, in double-digit scoring, but he shot a subpar 6-of-22 from the field, including 2-of-9 from three-point range, against the Boilermakers. He'll need a better shooting performance against Michigan State, whom he's averaged 23.8 PPG against in the past four meetings. Jermaine Marshall (3.8 PPG) chipped in with 18 points against Purdue. Jeff Brooks, second on the team in scoring with 13.5 PPG and a team-high 7.8 RPG, had 15 points and 10 boards versus Purdue for his second double-double of the season.

Michigan State went 2-0 against Penn State last season. The Spartans survived a close call in East Lansing, 67-65, and they won at Penn State, 65-54. In the victory at State College, Lucas scored 24 points for MSU, and Battle finished with 30 for PSU. Expect the Spartans to continue their unbeaten streak in the Big Ten with a big road victory on Saturday. The Spartans are 9-1 SU (7-3 ATS) in the past 10 road games at Penn State. This FoxSheets trend likes Michigan State to win and cover the spread again on Saturday.

Play On - Road teams as a favorite or pick (MICHIGAN ST) - off a close road win by 3 points or less. (82-37 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.9%, +41.3 units. Rating = 3*).

This FoxSheets trend leans towards the Over.

Play Over - Road teams against the total (MICHIGAN ST) - after 3 or more consecutive unders, a very good team (>=+8 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3.5 PPG differential). (65-33 since 1997.) (66.3%, +28.7 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 01-08-2011, 11:21 AM

UConn looks to end Texas 6-game win streak

CONNECTICUT HUSKIES (11-2)

at TEXAS LONGHORNS (12-2)

Tip-off: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Texas -7.5, Total: 142.5

Since starting the season off 10-0, and exceeding numerous expectations along the way, Jim Calhoun’s Connecticut Huskies have hit some turbulent waters from an offensive standpoint. Despite having the nation’s leading scorer in Kemba Walker (26.1 PPG) the Huskies have struggled to find offensive support to complement him on a nightly basis. Walker’s productivity accounts for over one-third of the team’s per-game output of 76.5 PPG. Since Big East conference play began, Connecticut has resembled a luxury automobile that’s getting horsepower from just four of its six cylinders. Tuesday against Notre Dame marked the first time in conference play that more than two Huskies have scored in double figures. Connecticut lost that contest 73-70, and will look to bounce back and hold onto its Top-10 ranking with a visit to Austin, TX for a showdown against the Texas Longhorns.

Rick Barnes’ squad has steadily worked its way up the Top-25 ladder this season, and like Connecticut, has exceeded several preseason forecasts along the way. The Longhorns are doing it on the strength of its youth. Top-scoring sophomore Jordan Hamilton (19.6 PPG, 6.8 RPG) is turning heads with his inside/outside game, rebounding ability, and knack for bringing out his best against the best competition. Hamilton put up 25 against Illinois and 28 against Pittsburgh at Madison Square Garden in November. He scored 24 against North Carolina in a two-point win, and followed that up with 21 versus Michigan State in a 12-point win. Freshman Tristan Thompson (12.1 PPG) is leading the team in rebounds and blocked shots, while fellow freshman Cory Joseph (11.2 PPG) is tops on the team in assists. Senior Gary Johnson (11.8 PPG, 7.4 RPG) rounds out the quartet of Longhorn players scoring in double figures. It’s not all about scoring though, Texas averages 43 rebounds per game, placing them third in Division I in that category.

At 41.7 RPG (9th in Division I), the Huskies will pose a considerable threat to the Longhorns on the glass, but will need to defend the three-pointer much better than they did Tuesday night against Notre Dame, when they allowed the Irish to shoot over 42% from beyond the arc. In its quest to achieve offensive balance, the Huskies did show some progress in its last game, as fellow freshmen Shabazz Napier (18 points) and Roscoe Smith (11 points) were able to hit double figures in support of Walker. Unfortunately for Connecticut, it was Walker who hit the skids, shooting 8-for-23 from the floor and scoring 19 points as his streak of consecutive games of 20 or more points was snapped at 11. Walker is shooting just 36.8% (25-for-68) from the floor, including 4-of-21 from three-point range in his past three games.

Last season Connecticut defeated then-No. 1 Texas in Storrs, 88-74 in a game that Walker scored 19 points. Each team has played two common Top-10 opponents. Texas lost to Pittsburgh by two in November, while Connecticut lost to the Panthers by 15 on December 27. The Huskies defeated Michigan State by three in Maui in November, while Texas beat the Spartans by 12 on December 22 in East Lansing.

Although UConn is 3-0-1 ATS in the past four meetings with the Longhorns (all since 2000), this FoxSheets trend likes Texas to win and cover on its home court.

Play On - Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (TEXAS) - an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG) against a good defensive team (63-67 PPG), after allowing 50 points or less. (70-37 since 1997.) (65.4%, +29.3 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 01-08-2011, 01:38 PM

Saturday, January 8Game Score Status Pick Amount

New Jersey 0 1st 6:45 New Jersey +228 500
Philadelphia 1 Under 5 500

NY Islanders - 3:00 PM ET Colorado -217 500
Colorado - Under 6 500

Boston - 7:00 PM ET Montreal -120 500
Montreal - Under 5 500

Tampa Bay - 7:00 PM ET Tampa Bay -133 500
Ottawa - Under 5.5 500

Minnesota - 7:00 PM ET Minnesota +155 500
Pittsburgh - Under 5 500

Florida - 7:00 PM ET Washington -225 500
Washington - Under 5.5 500

NY Rangers - 8:00 PM ET St. Louis -145 500
St. Louis - Under 5 500

Buffalo - 8:00 PM ET Phoenix -130 500
Phoenix - Under 5 500

Nashville - 8:00 PM ET Nashville +149 500
San Jose - Under 5 500

Detroit - 10:00 PM ET Detroit +156 500
Vancouver - Over 5.5 500

Columbus - 10:30 PM ET Los Angeles -182 500
Los Angeles - Under 5.5 500

**StarDust Bum** · 01-08-2011, 01:59 PM

Magic go for 9th straight win Saturday

ORLANDO MAGIC (24-12)

at DALLAS MAVERICKS (26-9)

Tip-off: Saturday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Orlando -5, Total: 187.5

One of the hottest teams in the NBA takes on one of the best teams in the NBA on Saturday as the Magic invade Dallas.

After losing their first three games since acquiring Gilbert Arenas, Jason Richardson, Hedo Turkoglu and Earl Clark, Orlando has caught fire with eight straight wins. One of those three losses came against Dallas who was in the midst of a 17-1 stretch when it defeated the Magic 105-99 on December 21. Orlando has struggled ATS going just 16-20 this season, but has gone 7-1 ATS during the win streak. Orlando’s defense has keyed the team during its win steak, holding opponents to just 41.2% FG and 92.1 PPG. Richardson and Turkoglu have excelled during the run. Richardson has averaged 14.3 points and Turkoglu 13.5 PPG during the streak, with both shooting above 50% from the floor overall and 40% from three-point range.

The Mavericks record once stood at 24-5, but Dallas has struggled since Dirk Nowitzki sprained his right knee in a win over the Thunder. Matters got worse for the Mavericks when third-leading scorer Caron Butler was lost for the season Saturday after tearing a tendon in his right knee. Dallas has done well ATS this season going 20-13, but has lost four of its past six ATS, including three of four at home. The Dallas offense has really struggled since losing Nowitzki, shooting 43.3% and averaging 89.8 points -- nearly 10 fewer than what it was scoring during a 24-5 start.

Asking the Mavericks to make up for two of their top three scorers is too much. Another concern for Dallas Saturday is how to handle Dwight Howard who has torched the Mavs for 26.8 points, 17.5 rebounds and 3.3 blocks in the past four meetings. I’m taking Orlando minus the points.

The FoxSheets give another reason to pick Orlando:

Play Against - Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - poor foul drawing team - attempting <=24 free throws/game, good shooting team - shooting >=46% on the season. (139-90 over the last 5 seasons.) (60.7%, +40 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 01-08-2011, 02:01 PM

Bulls look to regroup hosting Boston

BOSTON CELTICS (28-7)

at CHICAGO BULLS (23-12)

Tip-off: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Chicago -2, Total: 188

Two division leaders in the East get together on Saturday night when the Celtics take on the Bulls.

The Celtics have adjusted to life without Kevin Garnett nicely after losing in the game he got injured plus the next game against the Hornets. Doc Rivers said Garnett might return as soon as Monday from his strained right calf. Boston has been decent ATS this season going 18-16 but have struggled of late, losing six of their past nine games ATS. Even on the road where they are 11-6 ATS this season, the Celtics have slowed down a bit going 3-4 in their past seven games ATS. Shooting has been the Celtics strength all season. They lead the NBA in FG Pct., shooting 50.5% from the field. In defeating the Spurs and Raptors their past two games, Boston shot an amazing 59.4 percent from the field and 53.3 percent (16-for-30) from behind the arc. The Bulls have been victims of the Celtics great shooting already twice this season as Boston shot 52.1 percent from the field and averaged 107.0 PPG against them in the Celtics two wins.

The Bulls come home off perhaps their two worst performances of the year, losing consecutive games at the lowly Nets and 76ers. The Bulls have been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, holding opponents to 43.4% FG on the year, but allowed two of the worst teams in the East to shoot a combined 52.7% in their losses. Like the Celtics, the Bulls have also done all right ATS going 19-16 this season, but have struggled of late, losing six of their past eight games. Carlos Boozer has picked up the pace averaging 23.3 PPG, 11.9 RPG and shooting 56.7 percent from the field in his past 13 games. However, Boozer has struggled in his career against Boston, as his 13.8 PPG is his lowest against any opponent.

The Bulls have held opponents to just 41.5 percent shooting at home this season, and had success against Boston last season at United Center, holding the Celtics to just 43.5 percent shooting in splitting a pair of games. The Bulls will be out for revenge not only for losing twice to the Celtics already this season, but coming off two horrid performances against the Nets and 76ers. I like Chicago minus the points.

FoxSheets says:

Play On - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHICAGO) - off a upset loss as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record. (67-30 since 1996.) (69.1%, +34 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 01-08-2011, 02:01 PM

Rockets slight favorite over Jazz Saturday

UTAH JAZZ (24-13)

at HOUSTON ROCKETS (16-20)

Tip-off: Saturday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Houston -1, Total: 207.5

Two teams struggling a bit will meet in Houston as the Rockets host the Jazz.

After getting off to a 15-5 start the Jazz have slowed down a bit, going 9-8 in their past 17 games. When you look at Utah’s record ATS this season, 19-18 doesn’t look bad. However, things have been abysmal for the Jazz recently as they are 5-12 ATS since December 3 and are on a five-game ATS losing streak. On the season, they are 10-7 ATS on the road, but have lost three of their past four games. Paul Millsap has been outstanding for the Jazz all season. In his previous four seasons with Utah since being drafted in the second round in 2006, he averaged just 9.4 PPG. This season he is averaging 17.6 PPG while shooting a career-high 54.6% from the field.

The Rockets have been looking for help since Yao Ming was lost for the season again after playing just five games. After going through a stretch where they won 10 of 12 games ATS from December 1-22, they are 0-5-2 ATS since. Kevin Martin has lit up the net in his last two games averaging 36 PPG while shooting 63.6 percent from the field and 57.1% from behind the arc (8-14). In his past three meetings with Utah, Martin has averaged 31.0 PPG while shooting 54.9%from the field.

The Jazz need to get back on track after struggling during this last 17-game stretch. I’m taking Utah on the road.

The FoxSheets give another reason to like the Jazz:

Play Against - Home teams (HOUSTON) - extremely tired team - playing their 5th game in 7 days against opponent tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days. (227-152 since 1996.) (59.9%, +59.8 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 01-08-2011, 02:03 PM

Pittsburgh favored by 8 over Marquette

MARQUETTE GOLDEN EAGLES (11-4)

at PITTSBURGH PANTHERS (14-1)

Tip-off: Saturday, 2:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Pittsburgh -8

Pittsburgh aims for its 18th consecutive home victory when it hosts Marquette on Saturday afternoon. The Panthers and Golden Eagles feature two of the most prolific offenses in the Big East. Marquette ranks second in the conference in scoring and field-goal percentage (80.8 PPG, 50.4% FG), while Pitt is third in both categories (80.7 PPG, 48.7% FG).

The Panthers also lead the nation in assists with 20.1 APG and rank second in rebounding with 43.1 RPG. Pittsburgh hit 53% of its shots in winning its first two conference games, 78-63 over then-No. 4 Connecticut on Dec. 27, and 83-79 at Providence this past Tuesday. Gilbert Brown (11.4 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 44% 3-pt FG) led the Panthers with 19 points (17 in the first half), and Gary McGhee (6.5 PPG, 7.3 RPG) scored 13 points (all in the second half) against the Friars. Pittsburgh has won four straight after suffering its only loss of the season versus Tennessee, 83-76 on Dec. 11. Ashton Gibbs leads the Panthers in scoring with 16.3 PPG, including a team-best 44.7% on three-pointers, but he had only nine points on 3-of-8 shooting against Providence. Brad Wanamaker (12.8 PPG, 5.3 APG) chipped in with 10 points, five rebounds and five assists before fouling out.

After facing the likes of Kemba Walker and Marshon Brooks, Pitt will see another top scorer on Saturday when it goes up against Marquette's Darius Johnson-Odom (15.6 PPG, 37% 3-pt FG), who is averaging 19.8 PPG in his past five contests while shooting 55% from the floor. Johnson-Odom tied a career high with 29 points, including five three-pointers in Wednesday's 73-65 victory at Rutgers. He had averaged 13.5 PPG on 38% FG in the Golden Eagles' first 10 games. Jimmy Butler (15.0 PPG, 6.3 RPG) added 16 points and six boards, scoring in double-figures for the 14th time in 15 games. Marquette has four losses on the season, but they were all close calls against some of the nation's best teams, including a five-point loss versus Duke, 82-77, a three-point setback against Gonzaga, 66-63 and a five-point defeat to Wisconsin, 69-64.

The Panthers won at Marquette last season, 58-51, thanks in large part to shooting 55% from the floor. It marked their third consecutive win in the series. Gibbs was a non-factor with two points on 0-for-6 from the field, while Wanamaker and McGhee each had 10 points with McGhee adding six blocks to his stat line. Butler finished with 14 points for Marquette.

Don't expect the Golden Eagles to be intimidated by Pitt's Petersen Events Center, where the Panthers are 142-11 all-time. Marquette is one of only nine visiting teams to have won a game there, a 77-74 triumph in overtime on Jan. 21, 2007. But in its last visit to Pitt on March 4, 2009, it dropped a 90-75 decision.

Since 1997, Marquette is 6-4 ATS in the series, including 2-1 ATS at Pittsburgh. Their challenging non-conference schedule should prepare the Golden Eagles for another tough matchup on Saturday. These two FoxSheets trends like Marquette to cover the spread.

MARQUETTE is 12-3 ATS (80.0%, +8.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MARQUETTE 75.7, OPPONENT 69.9 - (Rating = 2*).

MARQUETTE is 27-10 ATS (62.2%, +16.0 Units) as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points since 1997. The average score was MARQUETTE 66.8, OPPONENT 71.5 - (Rating = 2*).

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