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**StarDust Bum** · 01-06-2011, 07:58 PM

Thunder look to beat injury-riddled Mavericks

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (23-13)

at DALLAS MAVERICKS (26-8)

Tip-off: Thursday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: TBD

The Thunder will try to avoid losing three in a row as they finish their three-game Southwest Division road trip in Dallas on Thursday. Meanwhile, the Mavericks look for their third consecutive win (SU and ATS), despite being without Dirk Nowitzki (day-to-day, knee) and Caron Butler (out for the season, knee). There was a possibility Nowitzki could return, but the latest reports out of Dallas has Nowitzki sitting out Thursday's game.

Following its worst defeat and shooting game (32.9 FG%) of the season in a 101-74 loss to the Spurs, Oklahoma City was unable to rally back Wednesday night in Memphis, losing 110-105. The usually high-scoring Thunder are only averaging 99.6 PPG in away games this year, while their sub-par defense is allowing 101.4 PPG in all games, and also the same 101.4 PPG on the road.

Kevin Durant remains the league’s leading scorer with 27.9 PPG, but he continues to struggle under pressure in the fourth quarter. This was the case in both home losses to the Mavs earlier this season. Despite scoring 32 and 28 points, respectively in the two games, in the fourth quarter Durant only went 3-of-7 in the first meeting and 2-of-5 for five points in the second meeting.

Meanwhile, Dallas is coming off an 84-81 win over Portland on Tuesday in its first contest of a difficult three-game homestand. Jason Terry, who has rotated into the starting lineup in place of Butler, scored 12 of his 18 points in the fourth quarter to help seal the win. The Mavericks won the first two meetings against the Thunder by a combined 18 points. However, Nowitzki led the first game with 34 points and Butler led Dallas with 21 points in the second meeting, in which Nowitzki left early in the second quarter with his current knee injury. Dallas will have a much tougher matchup in this third and final meeting against the Thunder, especially without two of its top scorers.

The Thunder are a decent 10-7 SU (8-9 ATS) in away games and are 10-2 SU (8-4 ATS) after straight up losses this season. Despite Oklahoma City coming off two losses in a row overall and against Dallas, the Mavericks are simply at a disadvantage without Nowitzki and Butler, making Oklahoma City my pick to win.

According to the FoxSheets: Oklahoma City is 4-0 against the spread versus Dallas over the last 3 seasons.

The FoxSheets also show a trend in favor of the Over:

19 of 25 games (76.0%) in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-06-2011, 07:59 PM

Nuggets favored by 5.5 at Sacramento

DENVER NUGGETS (20-14)

at SACRAMENTO KINGS (7-25)

Tip-off: Thursday, 10:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Denver -5.5, Total: 209

The Nuggets look for a rare road win when they travel to Sacramento and face a Kings team with the worst record in the NBA at 7-25. Denver is 5-11 SU on the road this season and has dropped six of its past eight games away from home, including a 106-93 loss at the Clippers on Wednesday night.

The defeat in Los Angeles snapped a four-game win streak for the Nuggets. Denver welcomed back the return of Carmelo Anthony in its recent 104-86 win over the Kings on New Year’s Day, after he missed five games due to his sister’s death. Anthony missed 15 of his first 18 shots and finished with 16 points. But he also added 10 rebounds as Denver dominated Sacramento on the boards, outrebounding them 68-45. He has now gotten back on track with back-to-back 30-point efforts with 20 rebounds in the two games. The Nuggets went 2-3 SU in his absence.

Al Harrington returned to the lineup in Wednesday’s loss to the Clippers, after missing the past four games with a thumb injury, marking the first time the Nuggets had an entirely healthy roster all season. This didn’t last long as Ty Lawson left nearly five minutes before halftime with a sprained knee and didn’t return. He is probable to play against the Kings.

The Nuggets weren’t able hold off the Clippers on either end of the court. Anthony led the game with 31 points, but Denver only shot 37.5 FG% and was outrebounded 63 to 54. During the four-game winning streak prior, Denver was shooting 46.0% from the floor and outscoring its opponents by 12.3 PPG, scoring 107.8 PPG and holding opponents to 95.5 PPG.

Sacramento is 2-2 since losing eight in a row. The Kings had two impressive wins over Memphis and Phoenix in the past four contests, bit they lost most recently on Tuesday at home against the Hawks, 108-102. Sacramento remains one of the poorer offensive teams in the league, averaging 94.6 PPG (25th in NBA) on 43.1 FG% (third-worst in NBA), and is also sub-par defensively, allowing 101.3 PPG (20th in NBA).

Playing at home bodes well for Sacramento in this series, as the Kings have won three straight games over Denver at Arco Arena. However, the Kings are only 5-15 SU (6-13-1 ATS) at home this season and only 3-17 SU against Western Conference teams overall. With a rejuvenated Anthony and the return of Harrington for this second meeting against the Kings, I pick Denver to win and cover. These highly-rated FoxSheets stats also side with Denver to win and cover the spread:

SACRAMENTO is 0-10 ATS (-11.0 Units) versus good foul drawing teams - attempting >=27 free throws/game this season. The average score was SACRAMENTO 92.0, OPPONENT 103.5 - (Rating = 4*).

SACRAMENTO is 3-16 ATS (15.8%, -14.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season. The average score was SACRAMENTO 94.0, OPPONENT 102.4 - (Rating = 3*).

This FoxSheets trends leans towards the Under.

DENVER is 30-11 UNDER (73.2%, +17.9 Units) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DENVER 102.5, OPPONENT 98.2 - (Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 01-06-2011, 07:59 PM

Northwestern goes for rare win in Champaign

NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS (9-3)

at ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI (12-3)

Tip-off: Thursday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Illinois -9, Total: 144.5

Illinois hopes to continue its home dominance of Northwestern when the two teams meet on Thursday night. The Illini have won eight straight games against the Wildcats in Champaign, dating back to 1999.

Illinois senior guard Demetri McCamey (16.3 PPG, 7.3 APG, 52.2% three-pointers), seems to be heating up just in time for Big Ten play. After a 20-point, 10-assist effort in an 87-77 win at Iowa on Dec. 29, he had 21 and seven assists in a 69-61 victory over Wisconsin on Sunday. Last season, the senior scored 15.2 PPG against conference opponents and averaged 11.0 PPG versus Northwestern. D.J. Richardson (11.6 PPG, 45.5% three-pointers) and Mike Davis (11.1 PPG, 6.9 RPG) are the other two double-digit scorers for the Illini. Richardson had six points against the Badgers, while Davis finished with 11 points and 14 rebounds.

The Wildcats look to rebound from 65-62 setback versus Michigan State on Monday, their third loss in four games and second straight in the Big Ten. Northwestern hung with the Spartans late, despite shooting a season-low 31.6% from the field. Leading scorer John Shurna (21.3 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 58.3% three-pointers) struggled mightily with his shot, finishing 1-of-11 from the field and 1-for-5 on three-pointers. Shurna, who has been bothered by a sore ankle, scored only 11 points and is 9-of-29 from the field in his past three games. He averaged 23 points in two games against Illinois last season, and was 6-of-14 from beyond the arc. Drew Crawford (14.6 PPG, 5.3 RPG) led the Wildcats with 17 points and eight boards against Michigan State, but he shot only 5-of-16 from the floor. Michael Thompson (14.8 PPG, 4.5 APG), second on the team in scoring, chipped in with 12 points, but hit just 5-of-13 field goals.

Illinois and Northwestern split two games last season, with each team winning on its home court. It took overtime for the Illini to claim an 89-83 decision at home on Dec. 30, 2009, as Mike Tisdale (9.7 PPG, 7.2 RPG) led Illinois with 31 points and 11 rebounds. Northwestern returned the favor with a 73-68 triumph last January, which ended an 11-game losing streak to Illinois.

Although Illinois is 21-3 SU in this series since 1997, Northwestern has won the past three meetings ATS. Expect the Wildcats to give the Illini another tough battle on Thursday. These two FoxSheets trends likes Northwestern to cover the spread.

NORTHWESTERN is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) versus good passing teams, averaging >=16 assists/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. The average score was NORTHWESTERN 69.1, OPPONENT 67.7 - (Rating = 2*).

Bill Carmody is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) off a close loss by 3 points or less to a conference rival as the coach of NORTHWESTERN. The average score was NORTHWESTERN 67.4, OPPONENT 62.9 - (Rating = 2*).

And these two FoxSheets trends expect the game to finish Under the total.

Bruce Weber is 30-11 UNDER (73.2%, +17.9 Units) versus teams who average 33 or less rebounds/game on the season as the coach of ILLINOIS. The average score was ILLINOIS 63.9, OPPONENT 55.6 - (Rating = 3*).

Play Under - Home teams against the total (ILLINOIS) - excellent shooting team (>=47.5%) against an average defensive team (42.5-45%), after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better. (119-65 since 1997.) (64.7%, +47.5 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 01-06-2011, 08:01 PM

Cincinnati looks for 15-0 start over rival Xavier

XAVIER MUSKETEERS (8-4)

at CINCINNATI BEARCATS (14-0)

Tip-off: Thursday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Cincinnati -9, Total: 129

Of the many developing storylines of the 2010-11 college basketball season, the emergence of the Cincinnati Bearcats into the Top 25 has been a surprise that few, if any saw coming. The Big East coaches certainly didn’t foresee this as they chose the Bearcats to finish 12th in the 16-team league. While Mick Cronin’s team has surged to a 14-0 start, the men from the Queen City still have their share of skeptics. Why? Well if we were to play the Bracketology tournament résumé board game ($9.95 from Milton Bradley) on January 6, we would see that the Bearcats have an RPI that rates them at No. 66, which is not horrible, but definitely not Final Four material either. A closer look reveals that Cincy presently boasts the 327th toughest schedule. Now THAT’S cause for doubt. The Bearcats can go a long way towards showing fans nationally that its Top 25 ranking matches the early-season hype with a win over cross-town archrival and mid-major standout Xavier.

On the surface, the Musketeers do not blow you away with the numbers. Head coach Chris Mack’s 8-4 team is only averaging 70.5 PPG, and are shooting a pedestrian 43.7% from the field. But three of the four defeats came versus teams that made last year’s NCAA Tournament (Old Dominion, Gonzaga, and Florida) with two of the losses coming by single digits. The Musketeers have also registered a victory over 2010 NCAA runner-up Butler. As Tu Holloway goes, so goes Xavier. The 6-foot junior guard leads the team in scoring (21.3 PPG), assists (5.6 APG), steals (1.7 SPG) and if that wasn’t enough, he is also hauling down 4.3 rebounds per contest. If Cincinnati is thinking of wearing him down, that effort will likely be futile. Holloway averages 39.1 minutes per game. Holloway leads a quartet of Musketeers who score in double figures, with leading rebounder Jamel McLean (10.1 PPG, 9.5 RPG) and 7-foot center Kenny Frease (11.7 PPG, 7.8 RPG) manning things in the paint. Sophomore guard Mark Lyons is second on the team with 12.6 PPG as he has attempted 10-to-13 field goals in every game this season.

When last season’s leading scorer, freshman Lance Stephenson, left for the NBA the Bearcats were left with an offensive hole to fill. Enter junior guard Dion Dixon, who is averaging 12.7 PPG, while shooting 35.4% from beyond the arc. Dixon has more than doubled his 4.9 PPG scoring output from a season ago, and his FG% (from 35.1% to 45.3%) has soared from last season. Junior forward Yancy Gates (11.5 PPG, 6.6 RPG) is second on the team in points and rebounds, and leads the squad in blocked shots. Freshman Sean Kilpatrick has been a very pleasant surprise, contributing 10.1 PPG while shooting a blistering 41.8% from three-point territory. Six-foot-11 senior Ibrahima Thomas from Senegal is leading the team in rebounds (7.0 RPG) and also chipping in 7.9 PPG.

Last year’s meeting at the Cintas Center was an all-time classic, as host Xavier defeated Cincinnati 83-79 in double overtime behind Holloway’s game-high 26 points. It was the first double-OT game in the history of the Xavier-Cincinnati rivalry, which began in 1928. The Bearcats have lost three straight and 10 of the past 14 in this series. Since 1997, Xavier is 4-1-1 ATS (3-3 SU) at Cincinnati. Thursday night Mick Cronin looks to put a stop to that losing streak, while extending his team’s season-opening win streak to 15, all the while showing some more doubters out there that this year’s Bearcats are very much for real.

These two FoxSheets trends think Cincinnati will win and cover on Thursday.

Play On - Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CINCINNATI) - team from a major Division I-A conference against a team from a second tier conference, off a home win by 10 points or more. (116-62 since 1997.) (65.2%, +47.8 units. Rating = 3*).

XAVIER is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) after 3 consecutive non-conference games this season.The average score was XAVIER 68.4, OPPONENT 67.2 - (Rating = 1*).

This FoxSheets trend expects the game to finish Under the total.

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (CINCINNATI) - good shooting team (45-47.5%) against an good defensive team (40-42.5%), in a game involving two good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's). (211-142 since 1997.) (59.8%, +54.8 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 01-06-2011, 08:02 PM

South Florida seeks first-ever win over Villanova

VILLANOVA WILDCATS (12-1)

at SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS (6-9)

Tip-off: Thursday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Villanova -7, Total: 127

As the season of giving and receiving wrapped up at about the same time that the first week of conference play was winding down, it seems that the biggest thing teams in the Big East were exchanging were not gifts, but scares. South Florida went on the road last week to Connecticut and pushed the then-No. 4 Huskies into overtime before stubbornly going down 66-61. Villanova received a jolt when cellar-dweller Rutgers took a four-point lead into halftime at the Pavilion, before ‘Nova broke open a seven-point game late to win 81-65. Thursday night in Tampa, the Bulls will try to put more than a scare into the Wildcats as they get their second chance in as many games to knock off a Top-10 conference opponent.

At 4-0 all-time, Villanova has never lost to South Florida in league play, but the two games played in Florida have been tight ones. A 49-46 squeaker in January 2006, and a 70-61 victory in January 2009 in which the ‘Cats had to pull away late. Villanova’s top scorer Corey Stokes (16.9 PPG) had 23 points in the win over Rutgers, and is averaging 22 points per game over his past three contests. Despite scoring over 77 PPG as a team, the Wildcats have been prone to suffer from occasional bouts of clankers syndrome, an affliction which entails the proclivity to have numerous shot balls deflect repeatedly off the side of the rim. The ‘Cats are shooting 44.8% from the floor, and the Bulls are shooting 42.0% as a squad. Those percentages could take a hit Thursday night because each team is among the best at defending in the Big East. Villanova is limiting opponents to a conference best 37.3 FG%, and USF is not far behind as it is allowing a mere 38.4 FG%.

The Bulls held the Huskies to just 37.5% shooting from the floor, but unfortunately lost their shooting touch at the worst possible time. Stan Heath’s team could only muster 15 points in the game’s final 16 minutes. The Bulls struggled mightily once Jim Calhoun decided to resort to a zone defense against them, and since Villanova’s coaching staff watches game tape too, expect Jay Wright to try and force USF to make some shots against a Villanova zone as well. Augustus Gilchrist (11.8 PPG, 5.9 RPG) had his second-best point and rebound effort of the season versus Connecticut with 21 points and eight boards. Sophomore guard Jawanza Poland averages 10.2 PPG, after Gilchrist and Poland, no other Bulls players are scoring in double figures for the swishing-challenged Bulls offense. USF only averages 60.9 PPG, which is right near the bottom (315th to be exact) of the Division I rankings. Just to put that number into better perspective, Thursday night’s opponent, Villanova, averages 63.6 points per game just from its starting five.

South Florida has shot under 40 percent in all four meetings with Villanova, going 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS. However, this percentage has climbed each game -- 29%, 32%, 35% and 38% in last season’s loss. The Wildcats have also increased their shooting accuracy with each meeting -– 30%, 42%, 44% and 47% last year. These two FoxSheets coaching trends think Villanova will win and cover on Thursday.

Stan Heath is 8-21 ATS (27.6%, -15.1 Units) off a road loss as the coach of SOUTH FLORIDA. The average score was SOUTH FLORIDA 63.9, OPPONENT 68.3 - (Rating = 2*).

Jay Wright is 56-40 ATS (58.3%, +12.0 Units) in road games as the coach of VILLANOVA.The average score was VILLANOVA 72.6, OPPONENT 69.9 - (Rating = 1*).

This four-star FoxSheets trend expects the game to finish Over the total.

Play Over - Home teams where the total is 129.5 or less (SOUTH FLORIDA) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last 10 games, a bad team (20% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record. (37-8 since 1997.) (82.2%, +28.2 units. Rating = 4*).

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