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**StarDust Bum** · 01-04-2011, 07:56 PM

Red-hot Spurs tabbed at -5.5 at New York

SAN ANTONIO SPURS (29-4)

at NEW YORK KNICKS (19-14)

Tip-off: Tuesday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Line: San Antonio -5.5, Total: 208

The Spurs look to get their 15th win in 16 games as they head to New York for the first of two back-to-back road games. The Knicks seek their fourth win in six games and will be without Danilo Gallinari for a couple weeks as he recovers from a sprained knee.

San Antonio crushed Oklahoma City 101-74 on New Year’s Day, holding the Thunder to 32.9% shooting and outscoring them 60 to 26 in the paint. Tim Duncan led with 21 points and Tony Parker dished 10 assists. The Spurs have played excellent defense over the past four contests, holding opponents 37.1% shooting and covering the spread four consecutive times after an 0-4 ATS skid.

The Knicks, meanwhile, have been unable to find a rhythm since losing to Boston halfway through December. Since the loss to the Celtics that snapped its eight-game winning streak, New York has gone 5-3 SU (4-4 ATS). The Knicks won their last game at home 98-92 over Indiana. Ronny Turiaf, who will likely start with Gallinari out, had six of the team’s 12 blocked shots. However, New York continues to play poor defense as it was outscored 46 to 34 in the paint and outrebounded 70 to 53.

Despite have the league’s highest-scoring offense (107.2 PPG), the Knicks have one of the worst defenses in the league (106.3 PPG) and will have a tough matchup against the Spurs’ high-scoring offense (105.6 PPG). San Antonio has been excellent on the road this season with a 10-2 mark (8-3-1 ATS), while the Knicks are a decent 9-7 SU (8-7-1 ATS) at home.

The Spurs are 3-1 SU and ATS against New York over the past three seasons and these FoxSheets stats also favor San Antonio to cover the spread:

SAN ANTONIO is 23-8 ATS (74.2%, +14.2 Units) off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SAN ANTONIO 102.7, OPPONENT 94.1 - (Rating = 2*).

SAN ANTONIO is 13-3 ATS (81.3%, +9.7 Units) after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season. The average score was SAN ANTONIO 104.4, OPPONENT 91.3 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 01-04-2011, 07:56 PM

Banged-up Mavericks host Portland Tuesday

PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS (18-16)

at DALLAS MAVERICKS (25-8)

Tip-off: Tuesday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Dallas -4, Total: 184

The Mavericks will likely be without two of their top scorers battling knee injuries, Dirk Nowitzki and Caron Butler, for a second consecutive game when they host Portland on Tuesday. Dallas snapped its three-game losing streak (SU and ATS) without both players in a 104-95 win in Cleveland on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Blazers look to extend their winning streak to three (SU and ATS) and have won six of the past eight as they embark on a three-game road trip without their best player, Brandon Roy, who is out indefinitely, also with a knee injury.

Since Nowitzki was injured in the first half in Oklahoma City on Dec. 27, the Mavericks have gone 1-3 SU and ATS. Butler will likely be out for a couple months after going down with a knee injury in a 99-87 loss at Milwaukee on Saturday. Shawn Marion also returned to play against the Cavs after he missed the previous game with a thigh injury. He scored a season-high 22 points on 11-of-16 from the field.

Dallas looks to get its second consecutive win in more than a week. The Mavericks shot 48.2%, their best shooting percentage since the win against the Thunder. Dallas only averaged 85.3 points in the three losses and were outrebounded by an average 14.0. The Mavericks defense has struggled over the past five contests, allowing opponents to shoot an average 47.1%.

Portland won its second straight game, posting a 100-85 win against Houston on Sunday. The Blazers only shot 43.2%, but their defense continues to step up and they held the Rockets to 41.3% shooting for the night and outrebounded them 56 to 45. Portland has held opponents to 95 or fewer points in the past four contests, but one of those was a 95-77 loss in Denver.

The Blazers have been successful at home with a 12-3 mark (10-5 ATS), but they have struggled in away games with a dismal 6-13 record (6-10-3 ATS). Their defense allows 97.2 PPG in road games and they average just over six points less on the road (92.2 PPG) than they do at home (98.6 PPG).

The Mavericks are 13-6 SU at home, but continue to have difficulty covering the numbers going 7-10-2 ATS. Despite winning at home over Portland 103-98 on Dec. 15, it will be difficult to win again without Nowitzki and Butler. The Mavs are 22-10 SU in Dallas against the Trail Blazers, but Portland is 19-13 ATS in those games; making Portland my pick to win this game over the injury-laden Mavs.

This FoxSheets stat also picks Portland to cover the spread:

Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PORTLAND) - hot team - having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season. (61-29 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.8%, +29.1 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 01-04-2011, 07:59 PM

Ohio State looks for 15-0 start at Iowa

OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (14-0)

at IOWA HAWKEYES (7-6)

Tip-off: Tuesday, 9:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Ohio State -12.5, Total: 136.5

The path of devastation that is the Ohio State Buckeyes will make its way into Iowa City on Tuesday for a date with Iowa. If the Hawkeyes are thinking of trying to do to Ohio State what the last prohibitive underdog, Indiana, tried to do last Friday, things could get ugly. The Hoosiers attempted to choke off the middle of the paint, in hopes of containing freshman sensation Jared Sullinger. The result: Sullinger finished with 19 points and nine rebounds, meanwhile the Buckeyes perimeter players connected on 13 of their 19 three-point FG attempts. Indiana lost 85-67. Iowa, whatever Plan B is, we suggest it.

First-year Iowa coach Fran McCaffery had high praise recently for the man they call “Big Sully“ saying: “Sullinger is one of the best freshmen that I can remember in my entire coaching career in terms of his maturity on the floor. . . Along with him, they have a number of weapons that make them difficult to prepare for and that's why they're undefeated."

Those weapons were on full display Friday in Bloomington. Guard William Buford was 5-for-7 from beyond the arc en route to scoring a game-high 24 points. Jon Diebler accounted for all 15 of his points by shooting 5-for-5 from beyond the arc. Meanwhile swingman David Lighty tallied 11 points, two boards, two steals and five assists. Ohio State shot 60.5% from the field and 68.4% from three-point range versus Indiana. If shooting the basketball was like starting pitching, this might have been a perfect game. This season’s 14-0 sprint represents the best start to a Buckeyes season since they began the 1990-91 campaign 17-0.

Ohio State is shooting over 48% from beyond the arc in its past four games, which is bad news for the Hawkeyes, who allowed Illinois to make 13-of-18 three-point attempts in last Wednesday’s 87-77 home defeat. Leading scorer Matt Gatens (12.5 PPG) seems to be regaining his form after missing the start of the season with a tendon injury to his non-shooting hand. Gatens tallied 21 points in the loss to Illinois, making 5-of-10 from three-point territory. Iowa hopes that Gatens will resemble last week’s player, and not the one who averaged eights points on 31.3% shooting versus Ohio State last season.

Ohio State is trying to defeat Iowa for the fifth straight time, which would be a first in school history. Meanwhile Iowa is hoping to avoid losing a ninth straight game to a ranked opponent in Carver-Hawkeye Arena. These two FoxSheets trends like Ohio State to win and cover the spread.

Thad Matta is 25-7 ATS (78.1%, +17.3 Units) after 2 straight games where they made 50% of their shots or better as the coach of OHIO ST. The average score was OHIO ST 73.4, OPPONENT 59.7 - (Rating = 4*).

Play Against - Home teams as an underdog or pick (IOWA) - after allowing 80 points or more against opponent after scoring 85 points or more. (87-45 over the last 5 seasons.) (65.9%, +37.5 units. Rating = 2*).

The FoxSheets also expect a high-scoring game, going Over the Total.

Play Over - Road teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (OHIO ST) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 8+ PPG, after scoring 80 points or more 2 straight games. (28-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 01-04-2011, 08:00 PM

Texas goes for 6th straight win hosting Arkansas

ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS (10-2)

at TEXAS LONGHORNS (11-2)

Tip-off: Tuesday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Texas -10, Total: 142.5

Texas aims for its 27th straight non-conference victory at home when it hosts former Southwest Conference rival Arkansas on Tuesday night. Arkansas has won three straight games while the Longhorns are playing some of their best basketball of the season. They defeated North Carolina, 78-76, and won at Michigan State, 67-55, during their current five-game winning streak.

And in its most recent game on Friday, Texas beat Coppin State, 95-75, thanks in large part to a 31-9 run in the second half. The Longhorns rank third in the nation in rebounding (43.1 RPG), and that strength was apparent against the Eagles, as they dominated the boards with a 47-17 margin. Tristan Thompson (12.0 PPG, 8.1 RPG) scored a season-high 22 points and pulled down nine boards, and Jordan Hamilton (19.8 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 41.2% three-point FG) scored 24 points, which marked his seventh game this season of at least 21 points.

Arkansas’ third straight win came Friday night in a 87-74 home victory over Texas-Arlington. Leading scorer Rotnei Clarke (14.3 PPG, 40.4% three-pointers) struggled with his shot, finishing with just two points on 1-of-9 shooting. Marcus Britt (5.3 PPG), one of four Razorbacks in double figures, came off the bench and scored a season-high 16 points against the Mavericks. Delvon Johnson (10.3 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 4.1 BPG) added 12 points and nine boards, and Marshawn Powell (7.6 PPG, 3.8 RPG), who returned from a one-game suspension, chipped in with nine points and five rebounds. The Razorbacks' two losses this season have both come in overtime. Arkansas fell to UAB, 70-65, and it also dropped a 71-62 OT decision to Texas A&M.

Texas won last season's meeting at Arkansas, 96-85, behind Gary Johnson's 16 points. Johnson (11.7 PPG, 7.3 RPG) was one of four Longhorns in double-figures, while Clarke scored 24 points and Powell had 18 for Arkansas. The last time the two teams met in Austin was on Dec. 20, 2006 when the Longhorns beat the Razorbacks, 80-76. Arkansas (2-4 ATS this year) leads the all-time series, 86-66.

Expect the Longhorns (6-2 ATS) to extend their SU winning streak to six games on Tuesday, but it won't be easy to win by double-digits. These two negative Texas FoxSheets trends like Arkansas to cover the spread.

TEXAS is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) after a combined score of 155 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The average score was TEXAS 75.4, OPPONENT 71.0 - (Rating = 2*).

TEXAS is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was TEXAS 72.1, OPPONENT 64.0 - (Rating = 1*).

The FoxSheets also predict the game will finish Under the Total.

Play Under - Home teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (TEXAS) - in a game involving two average three point shooting teams (32%-36.5%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a good pressure defensive team (>=17.5 TO's). (53-22 since 1997.) (70.7%, +28.8 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 01-04-2011, 08:00 PM

UConn visits Notre Dame as 5.5-point underdogs

CONNECTICUT HUSKIES (11-1)

at NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (12-2)

Tip-off: Tuesday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Notre Dame -5.5

Another Tuesday night, another top-tier matchup of ranked teams from the Big East. If this sounds like a broken record, get used to it. With eight teams in the Top-25 rankings, the Big East will likely feature at least two games per week as attractive as Tuesday’s Connecticut-Notre Dame contest, for the rest of the season. Throw in the fact that two more teams, St. John’s (10-3, 3-0) and Marquette (10-4, 1-0) could be knocking on that Top 25 door soon, and you have college basketball’s equivalent of a steel cage, last man standing, free for all. Tuesday the Huskies and the Irish take their turn in the square circle.

Connecticut is looking to regain some of its early-season dominance. After a 10-0 start, the Huskies struggled in their conference opener versus Pittsburgh, falling 78-63. Then on New Year’s Eve, Jim Calhoun’s squad was pushed to overtime before closing out 13-point underdog South Florida in Hartford, 66-61. Kemba Walker led the way with a team-high 24 points and eight rebounds, while Alex Oriakhi chipped in 15. Against Pittsburgh, Walker again led the team with 31 points, but no other Huskies player could manage double figures in points. The theme two games into the Big East schedule for Connecticut has been the non-existence of a balanced offensive attack to complement Walker, who is leading the nation in scoring at 26.7 PPG. Oriakhi, who leads the team in rebounding, tallies 11.3 PPG. After him, no other players are averaging more than 8.5 PPG. While the scoring has not been there from everyone, the Huskies defensive tenacity has been consistent. At 42.4 rebounds per game, Connecticut is in the top 10 among all Division I teams in rebounding.

Like the Huskies, Notre Dame has started off league play with a home victory and a road loss against a Top-10 team. After impressively handling the Georgetown Hoyas at home 69-55, the Irish went on the road and were outgunned 36-25 in the second half as Syracuse pulled away for a 70-58 New Year’s Day victory. While Connecticut’s offense has been symbolized by youth and imbalance, Notre Dame has been just the opposite. With five seniors in its starting lineup, and four of them averaging double figures in points, the Irish have a plethora of weapons to incorporate over the course of a game. Tim Abromaitis (16.3 PPG, 7.2 RPG) leads the team in scoring and rebounding, while Ben Hansbrough (15.2 PPG, 4.0 APG) is the team’s top assist man.

Notre Dame is seeking its fifth home victory in six tries against Connecticut, and will look to exploit its perimeter game to do it. While the Irish are in the top three of the league in making the three-pointer (37.5%) the Huskies are in the bottom three of the conference at defending the three-pointer (35.1%). No one has really stopped Kemba Walker from lighting up the scoreboard so far this season, but it would appear that Notre Dame doesn’t have to. As long as Mike Brey’s squad can keep Walker’s supporting cast from being, well … supportive, the Irish stand a very good chance at notching another home victory over a Top-10 conference foe.

The Irish are 5-3 (SU and ATS) in the past eight home games versus UConn and these two FoxSheets trends like Notre Dame to win and cover the spread.

NOTRE DAME is 20-8 ATS (71.4%, +11.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. The average score was NOTRE DAME 72.2, OPPONENT 66.3 - (Rating = 2*).

Mike Brey is 45-31 ATS (59.2%, +10.9 Units) versus very good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=39% as the coach of NOTRE DAME. The average score was NOTRE DAME 74.7, OPPONENT 71.9 - (Rating = 1*).

**StarDust Bum** · 01-04-2011, 08:01 PM

Trending: Big East powers in January

Prior to the Big Ten’s 0-5 performance in bowl games on January 1, no BCS conference was more eager for the college sports world to turn its attention from football to basketball than the Big East. With West Virginia (#22) and Connecticut (#25) both losing their bowl games, it is unlikely that any Big East school will be ranked in the final football poll. The basketball rankings are a completely different story.
As we enter the New Year and conference play begins in earnest, there are seven schools from the Big East in this week’s AP Top 25 rankings. Four are in the top 8 and six are in the top 14 (SU, ATS):

4. Syracuse (15-0 SU, 5-8 ATS)
5. Pittsburgh (13-1, 4-5)
7. Villanova (12-1, 5-5)
8. Connecticut (11-1, 4-2)
13. Georgetown (12-3, 9-4)
14. Notre Dame (12-2, 6-4)
24. Cincinnati (14-0, 6-2)

We took a look at how these seven schools have fared ATS in the month of January over the past three seasons. The top performers have been Villanova (9-4 ATS, 69%) and Pittsburgh (10-6, 63%), while Notre Dame (5-11, 31%) and Georgetown (8-11, 42%) bring up the rear. Connecticut (11-8, 58%), Syracuse (10-8, 56%) and Cincinnati (12-12, 50%) are in the middle.

These trends have held true for the first few games of this month, with Georgetown dropping its first two ATS, including an outright loss to St. John’s, and Notre Dame failing to beat the spread against Syracuse on New Year’s Day. Villanova covered in its win over Rutgers on Sunday.

Connecticut travels to South Bend Tuesday night to take on Notre Dame. UConn has performed better on the road in January over the last three seasons, going 5-3 ATS (63%). The Huskies are getting points in this one after squeaking out a five-point overtime victory over 13-point underdog South Florida on New Year’s Eve. The FoxSheets point out that this is a positive angle for UConn under Jim Calhoun:

Calhoun is 36-22 ATS (62.1%, +11.8 Units) after a win by 6 points or less as the coach of Connecticut. The average score was Connecticut 76.7, Opponent 66.8 - (Rating = 1*).

Also Tuesday night, Pittsburgh takes on Providence in the Ocean State. The Panthers, solid performers in the first month of the year, have the following data in favor of Pittsburgh, courtesy of the FoxSheets:

Pittsburgh is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) versus good foul drawing teams - attempting >=25 free throws/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. The average score was Pittsburgh 74.6, Opponent 64.3 - (Rating = 3*).

Providence is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was Providence 83.3, Opponent 81.6 - (Rating = 3*).

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